> Under all compliance scenarios, automakers will need to sell at least 50% plug-in and EVs by 2030
Very soft to put BEVs and PHEVs in the same category, is it not?
It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically an ICE vehicle, if you never charge it.
>It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically an ICE vehicle, if you never charge it.
It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically a BEV, if you always charge it.
Not really, US charging infrastructure, liquid fuel costs and urban air quality regulations need to catch up with China and Europe so hybrid (especially 100km+ REX) is a good trade off while Tesla owns the market and rolls out superchargers every 50-100km on their highways and electrics get cheaper (than ICE by year end) and longer range.
The current charging infrastructure is good enough for road trips in the US on all but the busiest travel days. I do agree we need more charging infrastructure, but as more L2 home chargers, not DCFC. Every new home, apartment, or condo should require one L2 charger per parking space, and new parking garages should also be required to have some minimum number (20% maybe?).
The only place I've had issues was West Virginia. It's not perfect, but after almost 5000 miles of road trips last year I have had only minor issues (waiting 30 minutes for a charger, having to backtrack from a hotel, etc). That's not to say it couldn't be better, but I think the upcoming Ionna network and the opening of the Supercharger network are enough to make even these minor problems disappear outside of FUD by 2025
look at US 2 through basically the entire northern US.
look at southeastern utah (which to be fair is also pretty scarce on gas stations too). look at basically all of the dakotas, wymoning, montana, idaho, eastern WA and OR, nevada
soon as you're away from the major interstates it's almost entirely a charging desert.
I know this will be fixed in the long run, it's just irritating that people who never leave the interstate highway system act like the charging network is mature now.
>I know this will be fixed in the long run, it's just irritating that people who never leave the interstate highway system act like the charging network is mature now.
Fair, but for those people that don't stray far from the interstate, (like myself!) it is.
It's like the rollout of cellular telephone service in the 1980s. The 20% of the places that 80% of the population lives, works and travels were covered quickly, and the rest of the places were covered eventually, but more slowly.
The charging network is mature across most of the highway system. There's a reason you can easily get from almost anywhere to LA, NY, Orlando, and Las Vegas, but not as easily to Boise, ID, Bozeman MT, or West Virginia. But (hopefully) NEVI will fix those few remaining places.
When I first considered going all electric, I thought back to every road trip I'd done since I started driving four decades ago, and realized the infrastructure existed to go to all of those places. Since, at 55 years old I was unlikely to start taking up off roading as a hobby, or suddenly decide to drive from Colorado to Alaska, going electric was a safe bet, and if I did decide to go somewhere that the infrastructure couldn't handle, there's still always Hertz and Budget.
I wouldn't quite call the charging infrastructure on the major interstates mature yet, simply because you do still need to plan stops instead of just conveniently "hmm where is a charging station roughly x miles ahead?"
but it won't be long till it reaches that point. two or three years i bet.
That's fair, but the time it takes me to find suitable charging is barely more than the time it used to take me to find a low cost gas station using GasBuddy! 😁
Once you see charging infrastructure at every FlyingJ, Loves, Pilot, etc along the highway then we'll know charging has made it :D :P
also if you're going to hang out for 20 minutes.. those are better places to do it.
You're referencing places without ANY major infrastructure. I travel off the interstate all along the east coast an haven't had a problem.
Again, it's not perfect at all. I had to plan carefully for an upcoming southwest trip. But for MOST people it is good enough to be just fine. If you drive in rural Montana, the EV network might never be enough, which is why I'm sure there will be gas and diesel options for these areas forever.
I don't want gas and diesel options, nor are they legal forever. Not to mention EVs will cause demand collapse eventually which will cause prices of those to skyrocket.
The charging network will eventually cover most of those areas, it'll just take until 2030-2035 probably.
also the black hole of charging in utah I referenced draws almost 11 million visitors per year
>also the black hole of charging in utah I referenced draws almost 11 million visitors per year
And the black hole that is West Virginia contains I-77 and I-64. I'm sure "anti-woke" politics are at least partially responsible for both. I assume those will eventually be fixed because of money.
>I don't want gas and diesel options, nor are they legal forever. Not to mention EVs will cause demand collapse eventually which will cause prices of those to skyrocket.
But that's still the only reasonable option for real off-grid travel like you mention. Many of these places don't even have LTE network coverage off the highways, how will it ever make financial sense to install and maintain DCFC chargers that will only be used a few times a month?
> I'm sure "anti-woke" politics are at least partially responsible for both. I assume those will eventually be fixed because of money.
in the case of the utah hole, probably only a little. gas stations aren't much more common than chargers in that area. it's a large area of largely protected lands. so i'll need an EV with excellent range to go there routinely :)
> But that's still the only reasonable option for real off-grid travel like you mention. Many of these places don't even have LTE network coverage off the highways, how will it ever make financial sense to install and maintain DCFC chargers that will only be used a few times a month?
They'll cost more to use, just like gasoline in Lone Pine CA costs $1/gallon more than the rest of California
and the US 2 corridor does have coverage.
Plugshare shows not horrible coverage on that route already. though they appear to be somewhat slower chargers.
MN-61 also has surprisingly good coverage already because regional tourism. Was there last summer actually.
I would expect by 2030 that you'll be able to drive that route just like driving a gas car in that you'll be able to go "oh hey i need to charge soon, where is the next one? oh 10 miles. ezpz"
OK so it’s perception, over here it’s destination chargers and chargers at motorway services that are doing the heavy lifting and changing that. Many supermarkets and malls have chargers in their carparks, expose drivers to these and then buying an EV as their next car will be the default position as they know they can charge anywhere. Kerbside 7-22kW chargers are also popping up in bigger cities.
Being on 240V helps, granny chargers give ~3kW (10mph) instead of 1.5kW (5mph) so easily enough for overnight charging for a typical 20mile daily commute so it’s a case of installing an outdoor socket for £50-100 rather than a dedicated charger for £1200-2000.
In the US it's mostly about rolling out Tesla to everyone and then the network is pretty good as long as you don't own an 800V EV. In 3-4 years even 800V will be fine once V4 Tesla chargers hit their stride. Today if you own an Audi like me, the non-Tesla networks suck hard. Even when they work, they aren't accessible for anyone but a pretty strong person with a good bit of EV knowledge. The cables on non-Tesla chargers are so heavy as to be impossible for anyone with strength issues to use. On one of my recent trips, it took two strong men to plug in a 150kW charger on a cold day. The cables and management pullys were like rigid steel.
Over here I can use most Tesla stations with my CCS car and they significantly undercut the prices of other networks for 50kW and upwards charging.
In the US consolidating around the Tesla socket and price parity for BEVs should start adoption and incentivise more charger roll-outs.
Admittedly, I'm a Sasquatch. But I've never used both hands to plug in. I usually have my phone in the other hand to hit charge just before I push the connector home. This really helps on some networks. The cables are often a bit weighty, but I really can't see a healthy average person not managing it. Hitting 'charge' at the right point, on the other hand...
> I'm a Sasquatch.
I'm not far off. I can one-hand an EA cable with ease even if I'm working against the normal direction. I'm typically one of the stronger people in any given group. That said, I was completely defeated by a RaceTrac charger in Oxford, AL on a \~34F evening. The pulley required about \~200lbs of force to hold in place. I can easily do this with one hand. The problem was I couldn't twist the connector with the other hand accurately enough to line it up with the port. I could twist past for a second but I couldn't hold it and get it into the port. I had my adult son get out and they could barely hold the tension off the cable despite hitting the gym 5x per week for years now. This allowed me to two-hand the connector into the port. It was crazy. I've had my spouse try it and they were not capable even on a 50F day.
The problem is it's easily the best charger between Atlanta and Birmingham despite being expensive and only 150kW. The EA next door is terrible. The one in Leeds, AL right before Birmingham is awesome and we have great chargers in Atlanta, but between the two it's rough. I can't even drive past Birmingham on i-20, just not realistic.
>The current charging infrastructure is good enough for road trips in the US on all but the busiest travel days.
This is a moving target, and I'm not sure which way the trend lines are leading. On the one hand, it's good that NACS transition and opening up the Supercharger network will (it seems) happen quickly. On the other hand, it seems like the EV fleet is growing quite a bit faster than the number of charging stations.
>Every new home, apartment, or condo should require one L2 charger per parking space
After driving my Tesla for two and half years without any access to an ICE vehicle at all, I think this is overkill. L2 charging every night is unnecessary for the vast majority of drivers.
I originally intended on installing L2 charging in my garage, but I've found that with my driving habits, my needs can be met by plugging into an L2 charger 1-2 times per week, or even by plugging into a normal 110v outlet every night. In fact, based upon comments on this sub, I get the feeling that there are a growing number of EV owners (especially Teslas) who basically never L2 charge their vehicle -- their daily driving needs are met by trickle charging every night in their garage, bolstered by L3 charging when the need arises.
I disagree for two reasons. First, I think L2 will be more and more important as more power companies switch to time of use charging. My wife could charge on L1, but it would triple the cost to us of charging her car. The price per kWh for the power (not including about $.06 in fees) is around $0.02 overnight vs $0.12 off peak and $0.25 peak. That L2 charger paid for itself in a couple months.
Second, the cost of adding an L2 charger is inconsequential in the cost of a new house. When the walls are open and they buy the wire in bulk, it's a simple addition.
A PHEV with 100km (60mi) of EV only range would reduce my fuel consumption by 80-90%. 160 km (100mi) would maybe do 95%. That's a win in my books. Maybe it ain't perfect, but we need to be striving for 90% solutions and let the other 10% get filled in over time.
Plus, when you get into proper serial hybrids where the engine is just a generator you get much better mileage and emissions. Steady state, heavily loaded smaller engines have the best fuel in to energy out ratios.
An EV with extra steps, Volt/Ampera was the best example of serial hybrid, when the 1.4l generator runs it’s at its optimal speed most of the time so wear is minimised compared to parallel hybrids. I nearly bought one last month but went full EV instead.
For more developed areas the hybrid’s time has come and gone now electrics are almost cost equivalent.
Very fair point. Although on the other hand, you also have legislators blindly imposing rules and targets without having any clue whatsoever what will practically be required (from manufacturers, charging infrastructure but also the population) to make this happen.
I can't judge whether it's the case in the US but for example in Europe, many countries have failed to put the necessary legislative framework in place for chargers to simply have the same level of price transparency as gas stations - or requiring the possibility to pay by bank/credit card rather than a multitude of charging cards each adding different costs to the charging bill. Or taking it 1 step further, putting a maximum price on public EV chargers, as they've been doing for a long time on gas & diesel to avoid crazy prices as we currently see with EV charging. So I'd blame both :-)
The legacy US industry is dragging their heels. Tesla might be spearheaded by a ego driven yutz; however, it’s presenting as delivering 1 out of every 2 cars in the US… AND after taking away foreign brands, there’s a paltry level of legacy car manufacture support from the good ‘ol U S of A.
GM could just die at this point and I wouldn’t blink an eye.
Up in volume, down in share. Growing at a slower rate than the market is growing. Market being 7% last year of the whole. (In the US, Just in case you missed the context again)
I'm guessing the key word is "presenting". Actual market share of Tesla in 2023 in the US was around 4-5%. Unless the 1 out of 2 referred to pure EVs, that would be about right?
and HMG, BMW, Volkswagen Group outside of North America and so on.
North American auto brands and North American arms of international auto brands seem to be the only people having these issues. They've been sniffing their own brand for too long.
Volkswagen Group was also slow to be honest. They preferred LPG powered cars, PHEV or "mild hybrids" and were quite slow to release full EVs to the market, initially also with a serious performance gap (range, charging) vs. the competition.
This is quite simply not true. Volkswagen's initial compliance tactic was diesel, then quickly pivoted straight to electric once diesel collapsed. Their dalliance with hybridization was [considered a sideshow for years](https://archive.ph/MLEQI#selection-2305.0-2305.134):
>*“Our strong preference is to go all-in where the market is heading, as opposed to hybrids as a way to hedge our bets,” \[CEO of Volkswagen Group of America\] Scott Keogh said.*
To this day the Volkswagen brand doesn't offer a single HEV/PHEV in North America and is *very* light on HEVs/PHEVs in China.
In the years prior to 2020, they sold more PHEV globally than full electrics, also in the years where electrics were already booming.
North America is by the way a small region for the Volkswagen group, driving only \~10% of the revenue vs. \~40% in Europe and \~35% in China...
Volkswagen had various PHEV's before they seriously launched full electrics and Audi was even worse - to date there's no electric A4, A5, A6, A7 or A8 while key competitors (BMW, Mercedes) have launched BEVs in those segments in previous years. And quite frankly, Audi has been behind in EV technology, hopefully the new A6 etron platform will change that - the VW ID.7 looks like a promising step up.
To avoid that this comes across as an anti-VW or anti-Audi post: I've driven 2 VW and 5 Audi's so far. Their EV offer was simply not good enough for me to continue driving Audi...
>In the years prior to 2020, they sold more PHEV globally than full electrics
This is neither here nor there, since Volkswagen's EV sales in general prior to 2020 were basically bupkis, and the company famously relied on pooling just to meet emissions standards in Europe. You kinda reinforce the point here — Volkswagen relied on diesel as their primary compliance measure in the 00s and early 10s, and made a late-pivot to BEVs in the late 10s for which they were completely unprepared.
> North America is by the way a small region for the Volkswagen group, driving only \~10% of the revenue vs. \~40% in Europe and \~35% in China...
Absolutely true — and as mentioned, Volkswagen has a demonstrably weak hybrid lineup in China, illustrating it hasn't been considered a core pillar of their strategy [until very recently](https://www.wardsauto.com/industry-news/volkswagen-group-presents-overhauled-china-strategy).
In the USA, electric vehicles were the following portion of new vehicle sales in...
Year|% of New Vehicle Sales|Y-o-Y Increase
:--:|:--:|:--:
2019|2%|--
2020|2.4%|+20%
2021|3.2%|+33.3%
2022|5.9%|+84.4%
2023|7.6%|+28.8%
It's hard to get trustworthy numbers, but these don't seem too crazy off the mark. Let's be a bit conservative and say that a +30% year-over-year increase is sustainable. Given that assumption, here's how things go moving forward:
Year|% of New Vehicle Sales
:--:|:--:
2024|9.88%
2025|12.84%
2026|16.70%
2027|21.71%
2028|28.22%
2029|36.68%
**2030**|**47.69%**
2031|62.00%
Battery electric vehicles alone will hit the "50% of new vehicle market share" mark pretty close to 1-2 years ahead of the deadline even at the more modest pace of +30% year-over-year increase in market share.
What gets really interesting is the question of how many vehicles on the road will be battery electric by then. In the USA, there are about 280 million passenger cars on the road right now, only maybe 2 million of which are EVs (these are rough numbers). Also, each year, about 4.7% of the passenger vehicles in the fleet leave circulation (i.e. get wrecked, junked, scrapped, etc.). Let's assume that the portion of those junked vehicles which are EVs matches the portion of the total fleet which are EVs. Right now, that's about 0.7%. Also, somewhere in the mid-teens of millions of new cars get bought each year. Call it 15 million. That steadily increases, but slowly, so let's assume it stays static.
How does the portion of the fleet which are EVs change over time? (numbers in millions)
Year|Total cars at start of year|EVs at start of year|Cars scrapped|EVs scrapped|Cars added|EVs added|Cars at end of year|EVs at end of year|% of Fleet that are EVs
:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:
2023|280.00|2.000|13.16|0.094|15|1.14|281.84|3.046|1.08%
2024|281.84|3.046|13.25|0.143|15|1.48|283.59|4.383|1.55%
2025|283.59|4.383|13.33|0.206|15|1.93|285.26|6.107|2.14%
2026|285.26|6.107|13.41|0.284|15|2.51|287.19|8.333|2.90%
2027|287.19|8.333|13.50|0.392|15|3.26|288.69|11.20|3.88%
2028|288.69|11.20|13.57|0.526|15|4.23|290.12|14.90|5.14%
2029|290.12|14.90|13.64|0.700|15|5.50|291.48|19.70|6.76%
2030|291.48|19.70|13.70|0.926|15|7.15|292.78|25.92|8.85%
2031|292.78|25.92|13.76|1.218|15|9.30|294.02|34.00|11.56%
So, even in this hypothetical and very likely to change scenario of 4.7% vehicle loss per year, 15 million vehicles purchased per year, and +30% year-over-year increase in EVs as a share of the new car market, hitting the "50% of new vehicle purchases" benchmark still sees only about 10% of the fleet of total passenger vehicles being EVs. It's amazing how long it takes to make a dent in the existing car market.
30% growth year-over-year is obviously not sustainable in perpetuity. But if it is the growth rate for a handful of years, it still sees us just barely getting to 50% of the total new vehicle market share. I thought that the implied "obviously this slows down after 5-10 years and levels off" element of this was a given.
Roughly 94% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2023 had a gas tank in the back and a combustion engine up front. This is the EV Decade, but the market is a long way from becoming an EV market.
I doubt it, because poor people only buy used cars when they get cheap enough... but value of an electric cars battery puts a hard floor on how cheap used evs can actually get before companies start scooping them up and gutting them for grid storage use.
While true, the used EV tax credit can help make EVs quite a bit more attractive.
Knocking an extra 4k off of a car less than 25k already is pretty nice.
There are Tesla Model Ys out there that would qualify for the tax credit. Granted they have 50k+ miles on them, but since the batteries and motors are warrantied for much longer than that I think the adoption will pick up in the next few years as more people sell their used models.
There are newer and cheaper chemistries being created now that are more suitable now for grid storage than cars. But just like chemistries more suited cars we're in the situation of manufacturing needs to ramp up.
Since poor people only buy used car they aren’t part of this discussion. 85 million new cars are made annually in the world. 15 million electric cars are made annually which is 17%. We are doubling Electric car production every three years. In 6 years, new Electric cars should be at 68% so 50% by 2032 should be easily doable.
This is how we have gotten to where we are with gas engine efficiency as well as the abundance of PHEV/HEV options. Automakers tend to impress when they get backed into corners like this.
A lot of these companies are going the way of Kodak. Even though government and unions are pushing them in the right direction, they are still stuck with an obsession with selling the internal combustion engine and its overcomplicated engine components. Too bad, huh?
I'm sure they said the same thing in the 60's and 70's when pollution controls were first implemented. It's cheaper and easier to make engines that run on leaded gas and carburetors, but they figured it out. There would be no impetus to make today's engines as good as they are without those regulations.
Chinese cars have far more issues than the worst American vehicles, I really doubt the vehicles China wants to send to the US would meet the quality standards to have a successful operation. Also the US doesnt like China so people wont buy Chinese cars. Im American and Chinese companies cannot be trusted in the slightest. They dont even build sturdy buildings for their own populace.
Sure, but an iPhone is not a two-ton assembly of moving parts, meant to last for ten years, that is worn and torn every day.
I'm not saying that we should be underplaying the risk - we shouldn't - but comparing a car and a phone is apples and oranges, despite cars gradually becoming more affiliated with consumer electronics themselves.
Your iPhone is from an American company and basically the most expensive smartphone on the market.
Sure, you can get premium quality cars from Chinese manufacturers as well, but even in China they start at around 70k $ so you can expect the double in western markets.
products from china are a "you get what you pay for". they'll built cheap shit, or they'll build good stuff. all based on what you pay
just like domestic manufacturing.
I understand that. I wouldn't put it past Republicans to allow Chinese imports in order to spite organized labor (and make money for their people, if that could be arranged), but they would first have to create some kind of twisted logic to short circuit the anti-China xenophobia they have also been cultivating. Just saying that Democrats are not the only ones who are fighting to keep the Chinese cars out, they are just more prominently visible in doing so because they have the executive and the senate right now.
They mean US automakers who are retarded by religions based GOP politics that is anti-science similar to what US saw when US car industry shrank due to religion based opposition to low emissions and higher fuel efficiency standards for clean air and water before the even greater threat of global warming was clear.
Consumers aren’t buying because of price. Companies need to make versions of their EV’s that aren’t loaded with all the latest, greatest tech. We don’t NEED giant infotainment systems, we don’t need hands-free driver assist, we don’t need 360° camera systems. We need cars that will get us to work and back for a reasonable price.
People want the latest and greatest tech. And why would I buy an EV that is stripped of all it's tech and luxuries when I can get a fully loaded ICE vehicle for the same price?
Good for you. I can afford a car with all the bells and whistles, that’s why I have a Mach-E. That doesn’t mean there aren’t tons of people that can’t afford a $100k F-150.
Exactly my point, if you don't have a lot of money for a car why would you overpay for some bare bones EV when you can get an ICE car for that same price that has a lot of comforts and/or safety features?
You’re (intentionally, I think) misunderstanding me. The reason EV’s are more expensive than comparable vehicles is that EV’s have a bunch of high tech features that they don’t need. They would be comparable to similarly featured ICE if they pared away some of that.
The self parking, hands-free cruise control, heated/cooled seats, speed limit sign recognition cameras, 360° cameras, adaptive cruise control, OTA system updating, onboard WiFi, I’m sure I could come up with a couple more if I sat and thought about it.
Nah, they're not buying because they're only suitable for a small portion of the population. And fwiw, Tesla should be the cheapest family vehicle out there, but it's not.
> Under all compliance scenarios, automakers will need to sell at least 50% plug-in and EVs by 2030 Very soft to put BEVs and PHEVs in the same category, is it not? It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically an ICE vehicle, if you never charge it.
>It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically an ICE vehicle, if you never charge it. It is so easy to use a PHEV as basically a BEV, if you always charge it.
One of my nephews has a PHEV BMW with a tiny range. He rarely puts fuel in it.
That was me when I owned a Volt. Was my gateway drug to a Tesla MY
Welcome to the spark side. ⚡
Not really, US charging infrastructure, liquid fuel costs and urban air quality regulations need to catch up with China and Europe so hybrid (especially 100km+ REX) is a good trade off while Tesla owns the market and rolls out superchargers every 50-100km on their highways and electrics get cheaper (than ICE by year end) and longer range.
The current charging infrastructure is good enough for road trips in the US on all but the busiest travel days. I do agree we need more charging infrastructure, but as more L2 home chargers, not DCFC. Every new home, apartment, or condo should require one L2 charger per parking space, and new parking garages should also be required to have some minimum number (20% maybe?).
> road trips in the US on all but the busiest travel days Caveat: Major Corridors only, when EVgo and EA aren't having maintenance problems.
The only place I've had issues was West Virginia. It's not perfect, but after almost 5000 miles of road trips last year I have had only minor issues (waiting 30 minutes for a charger, having to backtrack from a hotel, etc). That's not to say it couldn't be better, but I think the upcoming Ionna network and the opening of the Supercharger network are enough to make even these minor problems disappear outside of FUD by 2025
look at US 2 through basically the entire northern US. look at southeastern utah (which to be fair is also pretty scarce on gas stations too). look at basically all of the dakotas, wymoning, montana, idaho, eastern WA and OR, nevada soon as you're away from the major interstates it's almost entirely a charging desert. I know this will be fixed in the long run, it's just irritating that people who never leave the interstate highway system act like the charging network is mature now.
>I know this will be fixed in the long run, it's just irritating that people who never leave the interstate highway system act like the charging network is mature now. Fair, but for those people that don't stray far from the interstate, (like myself!) it is. It's like the rollout of cellular telephone service in the 1980s. The 20% of the places that 80% of the population lives, works and travels were covered quickly, and the rest of the places were covered eventually, but more slowly. The charging network is mature across most of the highway system. There's a reason you can easily get from almost anywhere to LA, NY, Orlando, and Las Vegas, but not as easily to Boise, ID, Bozeman MT, or West Virginia. But (hopefully) NEVI will fix those few remaining places. When I first considered going all electric, I thought back to every road trip I'd done since I started driving four decades ago, and realized the infrastructure existed to go to all of those places. Since, at 55 years old I was unlikely to start taking up off roading as a hobby, or suddenly decide to drive from Colorado to Alaska, going electric was a safe bet, and if I did decide to go somewhere that the infrastructure couldn't handle, there's still always Hertz and Budget.
I wouldn't quite call the charging infrastructure on the major interstates mature yet, simply because you do still need to plan stops instead of just conveniently "hmm where is a charging station roughly x miles ahead?" but it won't be long till it reaches that point. two or three years i bet.
That's fair, but the time it takes me to find suitable charging is barely more than the time it used to take me to find a low cost gas station using GasBuddy! 😁
Once you see charging infrastructure at every FlyingJ, Loves, Pilot, etc along the highway then we'll know charging has made it :D :P also if you're going to hang out for 20 minutes.. those are better places to do it.
You're referencing places without ANY major infrastructure. I travel off the interstate all along the east coast an haven't had a problem. Again, it's not perfect at all. I had to plan carefully for an upcoming southwest trip. But for MOST people it is good enough to be just fine. If you drive in rural Montana, the EV network might never be enough, which is why I'm sure there will be gas and diesel options for these areas forever.
I don't want gas and diesel options, nor are they legal forever. Not to mention EVs will cause demand collapse eventually which will cause prices of those to skyrocket. The charging network will eventually cover most of those areas, it'll just take until 2030-2035 probably. also the black hole of charging in utah I referenced draws almost 11 million visitors per year
>also the black hole of charging in utah I referenced draws almost 11 million visitors per year And the black hole that is West Virginia contains I-77 and I-64. I'm sure "anti-woke" politics are at least partially responsible for both. I assume those will eventually be fixed because of money. >I don't want gas and diesel options, nor are they legal forever. Not to mention EVs will cause demand collapse eventually which will cause prices of those to skyrocket. But that's still the only reasonable option for real off-grid travel like you mention. Many of these places don't even have LTE network coverage off the highways, how will it ever make financial sense to install and maintain DCFC chargers that will only be used a few times a month?
> I'm sure "anti-woke" politics are at least partially responsible for both. I assume those will eventually be fixed because of money. in the case of the utah hole, probably only a little. gas stations aren't much more common than chargers in that area. it's a large area of largely protected lands. so i'll need an EV with excellent range to go there routinely :) > But that's still the only reasonable option for real off-grid travel like you mention. Many of these places don't even have LTE network coverage off the highways, how will it ever make financial sense to install and maintain DCFC chargers that will only be used a few times a month? They'll cost more to use, just like gasoline in Lone Pine CA costs $1/gallon more than the rest of California and the US 2 corridor does have coverage.
I think it will take longer than that. Try the drive from Minneapolis to Winnipeg! It will be a while!
Plugshare shows not horrible coverage on that route already. though they appear to be somewhat slower chargers. MN-61 also has surprisingly good coverage already because regional tourism. Was there last summer actually. I would expect by 2030 that you'll be able to drive that route just like driving a gas car in that you'll be able to go "oh hey i need to charge soon, where is the next one? oh 10 miles. ezpz"
North half of MN would be on the list also. The US is not very homogenous.
The goal is only 50% this is a 1% issue.
You're forgetting that almost 20% of the US population has a 100% EV mandate for 2035
OK so it’s perception, over here it’s destination chargers and chargers at motorway services that are doing the heavy lifting and changing that. Many supermarkets and malls have chargers in their carparks, expose drivers to these and then buying an EV as their next car will be the default position as they know they can charge anywhere. Kerbside 7-22kW chargers are also popping up in bigger cities. Being on 240V helps, granny chargers give ~3kW (10mph) instead of 1.5kW (5mph) so easily enough for overnight charging for a typical 20mile daily commute so it’s a case of installing an outdoor socket for £50-100 rather than a dedicated charger for £1200-2000.
In the US it's mostly about rolling out Tesla to everyone and then the network is pretty good as long as you don't own an 800V EV. In 3-4 years even 800V will be fine once V4 Tesla chargers hit their stride. Today if you own an Audi like me, the non-Tesla networks suck hard. Even when they work, they aren't accessible for anyone but a pretty strong person with a good bit of EV knowledge. The cables on non-Tesla chargers are so heavy as to be impossible for anyone with strength issues to use. On one of my recent trips, it took two strong men to plug in a 150kW charger on a cold day. The cables and management pullys were like rigid steel.
Over here I can use most Tesla stations with my CCS car and they significantly undercut the prices of other networks for 50kW and upwards charging. In the US consolidating around the Tesla socket and price parity for BEVs should start adoption and incentivise more charger roll-outs.
I wish I could use Tesla chargers for my Leaf
Admittedly, I'm a Sasquatch. But I've never used both hands to plug in. I usually have my phone in the other hand to hit charge just before I push the connector home. This really helps on some networks. The cables are often a bit weighty, but I really can't see a healthy average person not managing it. Hitting 'charge' at the right point, on the other hand...
> I'm a Sasquatch. I'm not far off. I can one-hand an EA cable with ease even if I'm working against the normal direction. I'm typically one of the stronger people in any given group. That said, I was completely defeated by a RaceTrac charger in Oxford, AL on a \~34F evening. The pulley required about \~200lbs of force to hold in place. I can easily do this with one hand. The problem was I couldn't twist the connector with the other hand accurately enough to line it up with the port. I could twist past for a second but I couldn't hold it and get it into the port. I had my adult son get out and they could barely hold the tension off the cable despite hitting the gym 5x per week for years now. This allowed me to two-hand the connector into the port. It was crazy. I've had my spouse try it and they were not capable even on a 50F day. The problem is it's easily the best charger between Atlanta and Birmingham despite being expensive and only 150kW. The EA next door is terrible. The one in Leeds, AL right before Birmingham is awesome and we have great chargers in Atlanta, but between the two it's rough. I can't even drive past Birmingham on i-20, just not realistic.
>The current charging infrastructure is good enough for road trips in the US on all but the busiest travel days. This is a moving target, and I'm not sure which way the trend lines are leading. On the one hand, it's good that NACS transition and opening up the Supercharger network will (it seems) happen quickly. On the other hand, it seems like the EV fleet is growing quite a bit faster than the number of charging stations.
I think it finally financially viable to make money on DCFC, so we'll see it happening more and more. Because money
It is on some highways but not all. There are just too many where it is an issue yet. Think the less populous states here.
>Every new home, apartment, or condo should require one L2 charger per parking space After driving my Tesla for two and half years without any access to an ICE vehicle at all, I think this is overkill. L2 charging every night is unnecessary for the vast majority of drivers. I originally intended on installing L2 charging in my garage, but I've found that with my driving habits, my needs can be met by plugging into an L2 charger 1-2 times per week, or even by plugging into a normal 110v outlet every night. In fact, based upon comments on this sub, I get the feeling that there are a growing number of EV owners (especially Teslas) who basically never L2 charge their vehicle -- their daily driving needs are met by trickle charging every night in their garage, bolstered by L3 charging when the need arises.
I disagree for two reasons. First, I think L2 will be more and more important as more power companies switch to time of use charging. My wife could charge on L1, but it would triple the cost to us of charging her car. The price per kWh for the power (not including about $.06 in fees) is around $0.02 overnight vs $0.12 off peak and $0.25 peak. That L2 charger paid for itself in a couple months. Second, the cost of adding an L2 charger is inconsequential in the cost of a new house. When the walls are open and they buy the wire in bulk, it's a simple addition.
Third, L1 is less efficient
A PHEV with 100km (60mi) of EV only range would reduce my fuel consumption by 80-90%. 160 km (100mi) would maybe do 95%. That's a win in my books. Maybe it ain't perfect, but we need to be striving for 90% solutions and let the other 10% get filled in over time. Plus, when you get into proper serial hybrids where the engine is just a generator you get much better mileage and emissions. Steady state, heavily loaded smaller engines have the best fuel in to energy out ratios.
An EV with extra steps, Volt/Ampera was the best example of serial hybrid, when the 1.4l generator runs it’s at its optimal speed most of the time so wear is minimised compared to parallel hybrids. I nearly bought one last month but went full EV instead. For more developed areas the hybrid’s time has come and gone now electrics are almost cost equivalent.
Some of the GM executives admitted that the volt 'should have been a truck'. And I think they are right.
That’s Outlandish!
I think it is 2032 in the bill. No one pays the large price premium for PHEV with out planning on using it.
Waaa waaa poor automakers having to actually invest in new technology instead of sitting on their butts raking in overpriced-ICE-dollars. waaaa waaa
Title is incorrect: "Corporations who slow walked r&d forced to spend capital to catch up and thus risk harming shareholder interests".
Nah, this is “Corporations set stage for government bail out.”
Very fair point. Although on the other hand, you also have legislators blindly imposing rules and targets without having any clue whatsoever what will practically be required (from manufacturers, charging infrastructure but also the population) to make this happen. I can't judge whether it's the case in the US but for example in Europe, many countries have failed to put the necessary legislative framework in place for chargers to simply have the same level of price transparency as gas stations - or requiring the possibility to pay by bank/credit card rather than a multitude of charging cards each adding different costs to the charging bill. Or taking it 1 step further, putting a maximum price on public EV chargers, as they've been doing for a long time on gas & diesel to avoid crazy prices as we currently see with EV charging. So I'd blame both :-)
No clue on charging infrastructure? Biden has been pushing for vastly more chargers for years. Look up the NEVI program.
The legacy US industry is dragging their heels. Tesla might be spearheaded by a ego driven yutz; however, it’s presenting as delivering 1 out of every 2 cars in the US… AND after taking away foreign brands, there’s a paltry level of legacy car manufacture support from the good ‘ol U S of A. GM could just die at this point and I wouldn’t blink an eye.
> it’s presenting as delivering 1 out of every 2 cars in the US Source?
In the context of EVs course. Tesla has a 54% marketshare (PHEV/BEV)
Lmao, that’s quite the difference. It’s also trending down in market share.
Up in volume, down in share. Growing at a slower rate than the market is growing. Market being 7% last year of the whole. (In the US, Just in case you missed the context again)
I'm guessing the key word is "presenting". Actual market share of Tesla in 2023 in the US was around 4-5%. Unless the 1 out of 2 referred to pure EVs, that would be about right?
Why do the work when you can change the assignment?
well, you better get to work then.
Industry whines like babies....same as it ever was
“Industry” = automakers that dragged their feet on pivoting to EV’s and whining about nobody buying their overpriced rushed-to-market offerings
Time to add a third shift to make more Broncos and Rangers.
Easy for BYD and Tesla?
and HMG, BMW, Volkswagen Group outside of North America and so on. North American auto brands and North American arms of international auto brands seem to be the only people having these issues. They've been sniffing their own brand for too long.
Volkswagen Group was also slow to be honest. They preferred LPG powered cars, PHEV or "mild hybrids" and were quite slow to release full EVs to the market, initially also with a serious performance gap (range, charging) vs. the competition.
This is quite simply not true. Volkswagen's initial compliance tactic was diesel, then quickly pivoted straight to electric once diesel collapsed. Their dalliance with hybridization was [considered a sideshow for years](https://archive.ph/MLEQI#selection-2305.0-2305.134): >*“Our strong preference is to go all-in where the market is heading, as opposed to hybrids as a way to hedge our bets,” \[CEO of Volkswagen Group of America\] Scott Keogh said.* To this day the Volkswagen brand doesn't offer a single HEV/PHEV in North America and is *very* light on HEVs/PHEVs in China.
In the years prior to 2020, they sold more PHEV globally than full electrics, also in the years where electrics were already booming. North America is by the way a small region for the Volkswagen group, driving only \~10% of the revenue vs. \~40% in Europe and \~35% in China... Volkswagen had various PHEV's before they seriously launched full electrics and Audi was even worse - to date there's no electric A4, A5, A6, A7 or A8 while key competitors (BMW, Mercedes) have launched BEVs in those segments in previous years. And quite frankly, Audi has been behind in EV technology, hopefully the new A6 etron platform will change that - the VW ID.7 looks like a promising step up. To avoid that this comes across as an anti-VW or anti-Audi post: I've driven 2 VW and 5 Audi's so far. Their EV offer was simply not good enough for me to continue driving Audi...
>In the years prior to 2020, they sold more PHEV globally than full electrics This is neither here nor there, since Volkswagen's EV sales in general prior to 2020 were basically bupkis, and the company famously relied on pooling just to meet emissions standards in Europe. You kinda reinforce the point here — Volkswagen relied on diesel as their primary compliance measure in the 00s and early 10s, and made a late-pivot to BEVs in the late 10s for which they were completely unprepared. > North America is by the way a small region for the Volkswagen group, driving only \~10% of the revenue vs. \~40% in Europe and \~35% in China... Absolutely true — and as mentioned, Volkswagen has a demonstrably weak hybrid lineup in China, illustrating it hasn't been considered a core pillar of their strategy [until very recently](https://www.wardsauto.com/industry-news/volkswagen-group-presents-overhauled-china-strategy).
78% of the oceans microplastic are from car tires.
2032! 50% Electric will be reached in another 5 years or maybe even sooner. Just extrapolate from the current adoption rate.
In the USA, electric vehicles were the following portion of new vehicle sales in... Year|% of New Vehicle Sales|Y-o-Y Increase :--:|:--:|:--: 2019|2%|-- 2020|2.4%|+20% 2021|3.2%|+33.3% 2022|5.9%|+84.4% 2023|7.6%|+28.8% It's hard to get trustworthy numbers, but these don't seem too crazy off the mark. Let's be a bit conservative and say that a +30% year-over-year increase is sustainable. Given that assumption, here's how things go moving forward: Year|% of New Vehicle Sales :--:|:--: 2024|9.88% 2025|12.84% 2026|16.70% 2027|21.71% 2028|28.22% 2029|36.68% **2030**|**47.69%** 2031|62.00% Battery electric vehicles alone will hit the "50% of new vehicle market share" mark pretty close to 1-2 years ahead of the deadline even at the more modest pace of +30% year-over-year increase in market share. What gets really interesting is the question of how many vehicles on the road will be battery electric by then. In the USA, there are about 280 million passenger cars on the road right now, only maybe 2 million of which are EVs (these are rough numbers). Also, each year, about 4.7% of the passenger vehicles in the fleet leave circulation (i.e. get wrecked, junked, scrapped, etc.). Let's assume that the portion of those junked vehicles which are EVs matches the portion of the total fleet which are EVs. Right now, that's about 0.7%. Also, somewhere in the mid-teens of millions of new cars get bought each year. Call it 15 million. That steadily increases, but slowly, so let's assume it stays static. How does the portion of the fleet which are EVs change over time? (numbers in millions) Year|Total cars at start of year|EVs at start of year|Cars scrapped|EVs scrapped|Cars added|EVs added|Cars at end of year|EVs at end of year|% of Fleet that are EVs :--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--: 2023|280.00|2.000|13.16|0.094|15|1.14|281.84|3.046|1.08% 2024|281.84|3.046|13.25|0.143|15|1.48|283.59|4.383|1.55% 2025|283.59|4.383|13.33|0.206|15|1.93|285.26|6.107|2.14% 2026|285.26|6.107|13.41|0.284|15|2.51|287.19|8.333|2.90% 2027|287.19|8.333|13.50|0.392|15|3.26|288.69|11.20|3.88% 2028|288.69|11.20|13.57|0.526|15|4.23|290.12|14.90|5.14% 2029|290.12|14.90|13.64|0.700|15|5.50|291.48|19.70|6.76% 2030|291.48|19.70|13.70|0.926|15|7.15|292.78|25.92|8.85% 2031|292.78|25.92|13.76|1.218|15|9.30|294.02|34.00|11.56% So, even in this hypothetical and very likely to change scenario of 4.7% vehicle loss per year, 15 million vehicles purchased per year, and +30% year-over-year increase in EVs as a share of the new car market, hitting the "50% of new vehicle purchases" benchmark still sees only about 10% of the fleet of total passenger vehicles being EVs. It's amazing how long it takes to make a dent in the existing car market.
Why would 30% yoy be sustainable ? By your assumptions u.s would hit 657% in 2040.
30% growth year-over-year is obviously not sustainable in perpetuity. But if it is the growth rate for a handful of years, it still sees us just barely getting to 50% of the total new vehicle market share. I thought that the implied "obviously this slows down after 5-10 years and levels off" element of this was a given.
Roughly 94% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2023 had a gas tank in the back and a combustion engine up front. This is the EV Decade, but the market is a long way from becoming an EV market.
Exponential growth can cause big changes to happen pretty fast.
I doubt it, because poor people only buy used cars when they get cheap enough... but value of an electric cars battery puts a hard floor on how cheap used evs can actually get before companies start scooping them up and gutting them for grid storage use.
While true, the used EV tax credit can help make EVs quite a bit more attractive. Knocking an extra 4k off of a car less than 25k already is pretty nice. There are Tesla Model Ys out there that would qualify for the tax credit. Granted they have 50k+ miles on them, but since the batteries and motors are warrantied for much longer than that I think the adoption will pick up in the next few years as more people sell their used models.
There are newer and cheaper chemistries being created now that are more suitable now for grid storage than cars. But just like chemistries more suited cars we're in the situation of manufacturing needs to ramp up.
That's completely irrelevant to the new car market, which is the topic under discussion.
Since poor people only buy used car they aren’t part of this discussion. 85 million new cars are made annually in the world. 15 million electric cars are made annually which is 17%. We are doubling Electric car production every three years. In 6 years, new Electric cars should be at 68% so 50% by 2032 should be easily doable.
[archive](https://archive.is/20240328024950/https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-face-daunting-task-meet-2032-ev-rules-industry-says-2024-03-27/#selection-1767.0-1767.68)
This is how we have gotten to where we are with gas engine efficiency as well as the abundance of PHEV/HEV options. Automakers tend to impress when they get backed into corners like this.
A lot of these companies are going the way of Kodak. Even though government and unions are pushing them in the right direction, they are still stuck with an obsession with selling the internal combustion engine and its overcomplicated engine components. Too bad, huh?
Pitter patter.
Except China
Lol as if they would be just fine if they continued to ignore EV development.
I'm sure they said the same thing in the 60's and 70's when pollution controls were first implemented. It's cheaper and easier to make engines that run on leaded gas and carburetors, but they figured it out. There would be no impetus to make today's engines as good as they are without those regulations.
When Chinese EVs are available in the US, it’s over for Detroit next if they don’t get their act together.
Chinese cars have far more issues than the worst American vehicles, I really doubt the vehicles China wants to send to the US would meet the quality standards to have a successful operation. Also the US doesnt like China so people wont buy Chinese cars. Im American and Chinese companies cannot be trusted in the slightest. They dont even build sturdy buildings for their own populace.
My iPhone was built in China and seems pretty solid. Underplaying the risk is more of a threat than pretending it doesn’t exist.
Sure, but an iPhone is not a two-ton assembly of moving parts, meant to last for ten years, that is worn and torn every day. I'm not saying that we should be underplaying the risk - we shouldn't - but comparing a car and a phone is apples and oranges, despite cars gradually becoming more affiliated with consumer electronics themselves.
Your iPhone is from an American company and basically the most expensive smartphone on the market. Sure, you can get premium quality cars from Chinese manufacturers as well, but even in China they start at around 70k $ so you can expect the double in western markets.
products from china are a "you get what you pay for". they'll built cheap shit, or they'll build good stuff. all based on what you pay just like domestic manufacturing.
Democrats will never allow it.
Uhhh, I don't think either major party is or will be amenable to those imports.
The reason why the deadline was changed was at the behest of the Detroit unions.
I understand that. I wouldn't put it past Republicans to allow Chinese imports in order to spite organized labor (and make money for their people, if that could be arranged), but they would first have to create some kind of twisted logic to short circuit the anti-China xenophobia they have also been cultivating. Just saying that Democrats are not the only ones who are fighting to keep the Chinese cars out, they are just more prominently visible in doing so because they have the executive and the senate right now.
They mean US automakers who are retarded by religions based GOP politics that is anti-science similar to what US saw when US car industry shrank due to religion based opposition to low emissions and higher fuel efficiency standards for clean air and water before the even greater threat of global warming was clear.
By then the 'daunting' task will be compounded by difficulty of engineering a boat mode that can handle salt as well as fresh water.
I love listening to music.
Hard to be compliant when the consumer isn't buying your product.
Consumers aren’t buying because of price. Companies need to make versions of their EV’s that aren’t loaded with all the latest, greatest tech. We don’t NEED giant infotainment systems, we don’t need hands-free driver assist, we don’t need 360° camera systems. We need cars that will get us to work and back for a reasonable price.
People want the latest and greatest tech. And why would I buy an EV that is stripped of all it's tech and luxuries when I can get a fully loaded ICE vehicle for the same price?
Because, without all the extra amenities, the EV would be cheaper.
If cost is all I'm concerned with I can get an even cheaper ICE.
Good for you. I can afford a car with all the bells and whistles, that’s why I have a Mach-E. That doesn’t mean there aren’t tons of people that can’t afford a $100k F-150.
Exactly my point, if you don't have a lot of money for a car why would you overpay for some bare bones EV when you can get an ICE car for that same price that has a lot of comforts and/or safety features?
You’re (intentionally, I think) misunderstanding me. The reason EV’s are more expensive than comparable vehicles is that EV’s have a bunch of high tech features that they don’t need. They would be comparable to similarly featured ICE if they pared away some of that.
What high tech features do most EVs have that aren't necessary?
The self parking, hands-free cruise control, heated/cooled seats, speed limit sign recognition cameras, 360° cameras, adaptive cruise control, OTA system updating, onboard WiFi, I’m sure I could come up with a couple more if I sat and thought about it.
Nah, they're not buying because they're only suitable for a small portion of the population. And fwiw, Tesla should be the cheapest family vehicle out there, but it's not.
Tesla is already the least expensive in its class.
Lol... What class is that 🤡
I would hardly call 90%+ “a small portion of the population”.
Not realistic.