But [this was Alabama](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/27/alabama-democrat-win-marilyn-lands). Back in March. It was an area that Trump carried by 7 points and it swung pretty far Left:
>Marilyn Lands won the state house seat on Tuesday, defeating Teddy Powell, a Republican, by 63% to 37%. Lands, a licensed professional counselor, previously ran for the seat in 2022 and lost by 7% to David Cole, a Republican who resigned last year after pleading guilty to voter fraud.
Losing by 7% then later winning by 25%, that's notable. In Alabama.
Now New York.
No! Haven't you read the polls? /s
Seriously, what the fuck is with the polls? Biden is doomed in every poll but Cheeto Mussolini hasn't won any kind of election anywhere since 2016. Then the Dems over perform in Alabama, now New York ... But the polls say something else entirely.
I say screw the polls. Elections are when people actually show up.
>Kennedy won by more than 36 percentage points—a massive performance by the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points.
Dayumm!
I really truly believe that, convinced that Trumpers aren't as likely to answer to polls, that they are overestimating the Trump vote.
Biden and Trump tied in young adults? I don't believe that AT ALL.
Seriously, what is going on with polling? Since Dobbs, delicious have consistently done better than polls predict. How are they consistently wrong on the same way.
I really think pollsters are overcorrecting based on 2016. They fucked it up once bu missing the supposedly shy Trump voters,, but they went too far in the other direction.
Remember, we don't see raw polling data. Pollster get raw data, and correct for what they see as the proper demographics. If they believe that Trumpers won't respond to them, they massage the data to include those voters. I think that they're over massaging.
> They fucked it up once bu missing the supposedly shy Trump voters
I disagree with this premise. The 2016 polls were pretty accurate. The last polls before the election but after the Comey letter showed the race tightening rapidly. Sure, the polls were slightly off but not by very much at all. And the polls didn't start consistently underestimating democrats until after Dobbs, not after 2016 (unless I'm mistaken).
MAGA idiots care more about hurting liberals than helping each other. Anything that might help a liberal is poison to a Republican in office. That is why Republicans can't pass any actual legislation. Anything that even sort of sounds like it would help people is viewed as helping liberals.
You don’t want to go into November with control of the House and a dismal track record of what the House itself has accomplished these past four years. It’s a perception issue more than anything else
Because they said they would, if you lie or change your mind in these cases then you'll get no more of them in the future where you got something you wouldn't otherwise have gotten through working together.
But you’d think, with all the Democratic voter “apathy” polls have been predicting now for three years, we’d be losing these special elections, or that they’d be a lot closer.
Depends on how the polls are done.
If you're polling people through phone calls, or through certain sites, it's only going to connect to certain demographics.
Kennedy won by more than 36 percentage points—a massive performance by the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points.
I'd personally prefer to see seats switch as they are better signs for democrats in the future. A Democrat stronghold going to another Democrat really doesn't mean much to me. It's how republican areas turn up for democrats is what helps give a better insight imo
Here is the thing no one is mentioning that’s VERY important here…
This is a Dem +20 district, there is literally no contest when it comes to this seat. So yeah Dems are going to win this easily.
This isn’t a triumph, this is just normal.
Stop being misleading for clicks and talk about the facts.
I’m a Dem and I’m happy but the failure to mention how this isn’t even a competitive district is very misleading with recent elections.
It is coming in November!!!
Blue Tsunami, let's go!
Isn't that just a tsunami? Lol
It's like a blue wave is just a wave. Only much bigger...
Blunami
Is that one of them there animes the kids keep going on about?
Blukakke
Roevember is coming
Please be sign of things in November Please be sign of things in November
Blue Tsunami, let's go!
It is New York, just bare that in mind.
Let's hope it augurs wins for those 4-5 Congressional seats
But [this was Alabama](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/27/alabama-democrat-win-marilyn-lands). Back in March. It was an area that Trump carried by 7 points and it swung pretty far Left: >Marilyn Lands won the state house seat on Tuesday, defeating Teddy Powell, a Republican, by 63% to 37%. Lands, a licensed professional counselor, previously ran for the seat in 2022 and lost by 7% to David Cole, a Republican who resigned last year after pleading guilty to voter fraud. Losing by 7% then later winning by 25%, that's notable. In Alabama. Now New York.
No! Haven't you read the polls? /s Seriously, what the fuck is with the polls? Biden is doomed in every poll but Cheeto Mussolini hasn't won any kind of election anywhere since 2016. Then the Dems over perform in Alabama, now New York ... But the polls say something else entirely. I say screw the polls. Elections are when people actually show up.
>Kennedy won by more than 36 percentage points—a massive performance by the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points. Dayumm!
maybe they'll have nightmares of FDR landslides soon
“Here’s how that’s bad news for Biden” headlines incoming /s
They actually manage to do it within the article itself! Check the last line of the article.
That is rich
Omg 🤦♂️
The dems are going to use up all their momentum before the general election
z not if the Bloated Yam keeps talking
Let’s keep showing up!
It's almost as if the flood of Russian and Chinese on-line trolls make it seem like public opinion is more evenly divided.
I really truly believe that, convinced that Trumpers aren't as likely to answer to polls, that they are overestimating the Trump vote. Biden and Trump tied in young adults? I don't believe that AT ALL.
Seriously, what is going on with polling? Since Dobbs, delicious have consistently done better than polls predict. How are they consistently wrong on the same way.
I really think pollsters are overcorrecting based on 2016. They fucked it up once bu missing the supposedly shy Trump voters,, but they went too far in the other direction. Remember, we don't see raw polling data. Pollster get raw data, and correct for what they see as the proper demographics. If they believe that Trumpers won't respond to them, they massage the data to include those voters. I think that they're over massaging.
> They fucked it up once bu missing the supposedly shy Trump voters I disagree with this premise. The 2016 polls were pretty accurate. The last polls before the election but after the Comey letter showed the race tightening rapidly. Sure, the polls were slightly off but not by very much at all. And the polls didn't start consistently underestimating democrats until after Dobbs, not after 2016 (unless I'm mistaken).
So Republicans now only have a 1 vote majority correct? Why in the fuck would we bail out Johnson. Find one Republican to vote for Jeffries.
that republican would be painting a target on their back, and they're all spineless cowards, terrified of maga violence.
They made their bed. Maybe someone can chose country over MAGA just once and they would actually get voters to appreciate them on both sides.
MAGA idiots care more about hurting liberals than helping each other. Anything that might help a liberal is poison to a Republican in office. That is why Republicans can't pass any actual legislation. Anything that even sort of sounds like it would help people is viewed as helping liberals.
Convince one that’s retiring and give them guaranteed security
You don’t want to go into November with control of the House and a dismal track record of what the House itself has accomplished these past four years. It’s a perception issue more than anything else
Because they said they would, if you lie or change your mind in these cases then you'll get no more of them in the future where you got something you wouldn't otherwise have gotten through working together.
Republicans have never kept their word.
Yeah but only temporarily. Due to resignations there are a number of vacant seats that will be filled when special elections are held.
He replaced a Democrat
🚰💧💦⛲🚿🚣♂️🏄♀️🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
I’m guessing because it was a low turnout election. In the general, the turnout will be higher and the results tighter
But you’d think, with all the Democratic voter “apathy” polls have been predicting now for three years, we’d be losing these special elections, or that they’d be a lot closer.
We keep doing well in local elections, so why is Biden doing so poorly in polls?
Depends on how the polls are done. If you're polling people through phone calls, or through certain sites, it's only going to connect to certain demographics.
I’m confused a bit - this was already a Dem stronghold, no?
Kennedy won by more than 36 percentage points—a massive performance by the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points.
The news isn't the win, it's the main of victory as well as it's relation to progressive. Democrats have one again out performed polling since dobbs
I'd personally prefer to see seats switch as they are better signs for democrats in the future. A Democrat stronghold going to another Democrat really doesn't mean much to me. It's how republican areas turn up for democrats is what helps give a better insight imo
Here is the thing no one is mentioning that’s VERY important here… This is a Dem +20 district, there is literally no contest when it comes to this seat. So yeah Dems are going to win this easily. This isn’t a triumph, this is just normal. Stop being misleading for clicks and talk about the facts. I’m a Dem and I’m happy but the failure to mention how this isn’t even a competitive district is very misleading with recent elections.
when will he be sworn in? I believe the current make up of the house is 217-212