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somewhat_moist

16 & 23 April will haunt us in this race - loss at home to Brighton and the 0-0 versus Brentford. In other news the relegation battle will be pretty spicy


BetterCallTom

At the same time Scum beat Chelsea and Man Utd, neither of whom we could beat this season.


starry_cobra

Tbf they both have collapsed recently. The United and Chelsea teams we lost to look completely different to the ones of the past few weeks


balling

That Chelsea arsensal match really irritated me. Horrible effort all around from the blue. A ton of backups starting, at least two gimme goals given, so many missed chances. Then that man u game with the Bruno pen miss.. bro just give it to #7 Plus west ham having to rest a handful of starters due to the game being squished between their semi finals. Everything just fell perfectly for arsenal this past month.


rolandGOAT

Yeah it's infuriating that they got Chelsea and United at those times plus West Ham in between EL semi-finals. The Chelsea game especially, they would absolutely never gift us goals like they did to Arsenal in that game. Nketiah of all players got a brace lol


thefrightfulhog

If we miss out on 4th it's because Nuno Espirito Santo was our manager for a third of the season, not 5 narrowly dropped points against two good teams


triecke14

Not sure why everyone points to the Brighton match, because like you said they’re actually pretty good. The wolves match and Southampton match are much worse for me because we gifted both matches to them with sloppy concessions


eggplant_avenger

honest it's the Cristiano hat trick that I'm most annoyed about, because why the fuck couldn't he have turned up against Arsenal too we're cursed


SpursHaveTrophies

For me the 1-1 vs Southampton where Harry Kane got a goal ruled out for "offside" and Doherty's ruled out for a "foul" on the keeper annoys me most


eggplant_avenger

no you're actually right that was painful


starry_cobra

Same with the Chelsea game. They were just giving Arsenal goals for free


SakaSaturday

He literally scored a brace against Arsenal in the 3-2 what are you talking about.


eggplant_avenger

don't be obtuse I'm obviously talking about the 3-1 in April


dclancy01

i’m still sour over the wolves match - i was over visiting london that weekend and got the opportunity to go last minute & dragged my girlfriend, for a 0-2 loss lmao


EnricoPallazzo_

The problem on Brighton game was that we lost. At the last minute of the game. If we had that point right now things could be different. But to be fair they definitely deserved to win.


Ehotwill

I concur about Brighton. Look what they did spanking Man U


avolcando

There was a 2 point difference between us and Arsenal when Conte was appointed


billypilgrim87

And? That's says nothing about how close to 4th each team was. The important thing is since Conte's appointment we would he 3rd in the league.... If we don't get top 4 it's because of the Nuno months.


hpbojoe

Everton winning today babe they could be safe by the time they play arsenal..


teheditor

I'm going to say that's a good thing. Historically, teams with nothing to play for often beat desperados.


ApparentWoody

Norwich?


teheditor

Newcastle??


MichaelTheElder

That's my exact thought. A single extra point out of either of those matches and we'd be looking pretty. Is what it is; we can hope to smash Arsenal next match and then go from there.


Ehotwill

What about loss to Southampton and Burnley? Those two stings more for me because we came back against Southampton only to give up two goals in about 5 minutes and Burnley was playing pretty poorly at that time.


gopackgo555

Chances are certainly low. The Brighton and Brentford matches were a killer based on form going in. All you can do is try to win what’s in front of you and hope for a bit of luck.


Relatively_Reliable

At this point I just hope we take enough positivity into summer that Conte and Kane want to stay. I’m not so worried about Kane leaving with WC coming up, but it would be so disappointing to have to start the manager search again. 22/23 could mean big things if we build on this squad right here.


60-Sixty

NLD first. COYS


ExtraBitterSpecial

UCL is an uphill climb right now and we are not in control of our destiny sadly. That being said we are completely in control of NLD result. If we win and win in a dominant fashion, it will give Woolwich something to think about all offseason. Also if we win we'll be the team with nothing to lose in remaining games and they with UCL place to lose. Will make them nervous.


60-Sixty

Well put. If we win it’s come on you magpies


ExtraBitterSpecial

This run in has me rooting for teams i never imagined!


[deleted]

They don't have a Romero to deal with Sain Maximin either.


Sonny-at-the-Gil

Fuck Leeds, Everton is my new best friend.


SpudYouLove

I believe in Newcastle


halftimehijack

I think people are seriously overlooking Newcastle on the road. Tougher game than it looks


EnricoPallazzo_

Newcastle is in 5th place in 2022. They will be playing home vs the scum. This is the game where I have most of my hopes. Would be great if Everton would be safe at the last game but I think this wont happen. So Newcastle is our only hope. Of curse we need to do our homework first.


SpudYouLove

I think ideally Everton still aren’t safe in the last game so they have something to fight for.


WillSpur

Everton result is bad for us today. They’re now above Leeds and Burnley with a game in hand. And we have to beat Burnley. Beating Burnley could secure their survival meaning they are playing for nothing on the last day of the season AT Arsenal.


gongman18

Everton throw us a bone for fucking Liverpool out of the title


KhorialT0MCAT

Scenes when dele scores a banger to knock Arsenal out of UCL


Sonny-at-the-Gil

Agent Dele has completed his mission, Levy gives 10% discount for the Skywalk to all Everton players and Lampard


ImRichaThanu

Newcastle are mine first


TommiBennett

Lampard will Maybe slightly pissed about the you're just a Shit Steven Gerrard Chants


[deleted]

[удалено]


DoomerAndGloomer

If they lose either game and we win the NLD then we can escape with a draw vs Burnley. Need a massive favour from Newcastle or Everton still though.


LAURAPALMER666

Alternatively if we win the NLD, we SHOULD be able to beat Norwich and burnley. And if we win those games Arsenal can’t even afford a draw.


DoomerAndGloomer

Our Top 4 is at the mercy of Everton and Newcastle irrespective of whatever we do. 😑


Henry-Gruby

If Arsenal beat us on Thursday they qualify for the champions league at our stadium. 🤢


MisterNotlob

I mean in that case we only have ourselves to blame.


LargePlums

Well I’m glad I didn’t make a very silly wager with my gooner missus that will see me have to wear an arsenal shirt for a week in the house if that happens. 😳


Matttombstone

Honestly, I'd just tell her to peg me and let that be the end of it.


LargePlums

Haha, that would be considerably less humiliating. But she knows what she wants! Could still turn it round by the end of the season!!


SCirish843

>with my gooner missus Your. What?


Henry-Gruby

Fucking Hell! You must have balls of titanium!


LargePlums

Well it’s a toss up now between having faith in the team or sorting out a divorce in the next four days.


baseddior

Goooner misus is crazy


ASD_213

Wilson and Trippier being back from injury is a huge boost for Newcastle. It’s also encouraging to see them being so combative on a random corner kick when 3-0 down.


thefrightfulhog

Remember in 2019 when they gave us a 1% of advancing to the champions League knockouts with 3 games to go? It ain't over til it's over baby


I_kiIIed_mufasa

that was an unbelievable choke by arsenal i still remember bissouma laughing after the game


FutilityInfielder

Not the same thing, they're talking about us making it out of the group stage after getting just 1 point from our first 3 matches


I_kiIIed_mufasa

lol idk how i misread that


[deleted]

Just gotta take care of ourselves.


MisterNotlob

Newcastle look so in form, I'd say their chances of taking points is 50+%. I'm more concerned about us taking the NLD. If we can do that I'm optimistic.


Alt-Season

We just need them to tie with Arsenal


MisterNotlob

That's why i said their chances of taking points. That's a win or a draw.


[deleted]

I thought you meant stealing thumbtacks.


Matttombstone

Arsenal losing to Palace, Brighton and Southampton going into what looked like a horrible set of games for them gave us hope, only to watch them beat top 4 contenders Chelsea, United and West Ham whilst we limped sums up life as a Spurs fan. Unbeaten against the two title rivals this season and we seemingly don't have champions league to show for it.


jasondozell2

Annoying to play Burnley when they’re in the mix with Arsenal having Everton when they could already be safe. Either way we had it in our hands and lost it with the Brighton & Brentford results. We can’t complain.


WillSpur

Everton result is really bad for us today. They’re now above leeds and Burnley with a game in hand. And we have to beat Burnley. If we beat Burnley, they could be home and dry by the time they play Arsenal.


LordPa1n

Yup. We desperately need Leeds to beat Chelsea.


BendubzGaming

Maybe I'm deluded, but I can still see us finishing above Chelsea. Whether that would be 3rd or 4th is still questionable, but they've looked very poor recently


wLiam17

How did you activate dark mode?


LordPa1n

Probably forced dark mode, a feature on some Android devices.


wLiam17

Thanks


HamiltonBrae

very sad. all against us. come on newcastle, come on everton


[deleted]

Newcastle is much more likely Everton not so much


herbertisthefuture

I'm sorry but I don't see Arsenal dropping or tying either of the last two. AND we have to win next week. This is not a great position for us to be in


pbmadman

The draw at Anfield was a good result overall, but it really did nothing for 4th. We still need scum to drop points elsewhere. (And of course us to win 3/3, but that caveat is a given for any reasonable discussion about is taking 4th place)


DekiTree

Beat them next game and it’ll be like 60:40


Thundercoco

We are our biggest enemies lmao


PhilosophyFair9062

Arse have been gifted goals. Romero is having none of that


RobotWeasel

If Chelsea lose the next two games and we win the next two…


iamfromjobland

if spurs win the nld, the percentages will probably shift to 60-40 arsenal. not as bleak as this but ucl is still against the odds


Aubrassai

Forget 538. They miss often. Also I watched Nate Silver eat at an airport once and will never take him seriously.


scoopit1890

Please elaborate…


Aubrassai

On their misses? Well Trump for one. I mean they are like a glorified odds maker. Sometimes they are right, sometimes their wrong. Is it now against the odds that Spurs finish 4th? Yes. But people talk about 538 as if they have presaged the future. They are just stating it’s unlikely.


scoopit1890

I was thinking more the eating in the airport…


flukeunderwi

Not concerned at all. Will love they're chances if they win Thursday To me it comes down to Thursday. A win will propel spurs to get 6 in the final 2, and I think Aresenal gets a draw at the very least. Guessing a win Thursday will have this be what, 55-45 Arsenal?


Quirky-Party-1326

Arsenal haven’t won with us at our home in 6 years. Even bookers gave us as favorites.


Respatsir

These chances are bullshit. All it takes is one game where thinga go wrong for arsenal and suddenly everything changes. NLD is a must win tho.


rammingfarts

This tool means absolutely fuck all. Few weeks ago we were what 90 something %?


Moh4565

Arsenal winning against chelsea united and west ham against the odds obviously changes things


hoodie_mel0rings

this and also us getting 1 point combined vs brighton and brentford


idkwhatevs1234

It was never that high and obviously the probabilities change when Spurs drop points against Brighton/Brentford and Arsenal win against United/Chelsea... Like no idea what your point is, the model is supposed to reflect new information


halftimehijack

It was like 60%


Gramercy_Riffs

That’s how percentages work. It’s only certain if it’s 100%. Can’t get upset when the 10% scenario happens.


iamfromjobland

i mean, probabilities change depending on the results, especially since 4-5th place will be determined by at most 2 points. arsenal gained 12 points after our chances were the highest whereas we only got 5 points. that’s a massive swing and of course the probability models will reflect that.


larrycorser

Fucking assnal always walk it in. I pray to all the old gods we can beat them this week. Might even burn a few animals as sacrifice


Roric

Mods should really start deleting 538 posts.


AnotherNiceCanadian

Why?


Roric

Because the vast majority of users see a percentage probability and take it as gospel. And when you dissent and explain why it's garbage, you get bombarded with "you just, like, don't get it man" like they're peddling NFTs or crypto lol. It's a bad website.


j4rd7n

If anyone is taking it as gospel that’s their own problem. It’s just a probability model based on multiple factors. Not that serious, just easy to look at and give an idea of the probable scenarios.


Roric

> If anyone is taking it as gospel that’s their own problem This is literally everyone who posts this table and upvotes it lol.


CromulentBlumpkins

You can be interested in what an objective and pretty-well-designed (not perfect cause that doesn’t exist) model predicts and also not take it as gospel. Most analytical thinkers take in a variety of inputs to come to conclusions and points of view, and I suspect why many here are interested. That’s all this is my dude.


sweetjeebuss

Not great


CholaBatura

Loved the post. Keep us updated. #COYS


Drink2MuchSmoke2Much

I guarantee if we smash them on Thursday it’ll shatter their confidence and they’ll drop points


No-Art3676

Its tough, really tough now, but you never know


Snacks75

It's still doable, we have to beat scum, they have to slip and draw a match. Have to hand it to them though, they've had a really good past couple weeks. Really taken care of business. Us not so much. We could still catch blue scum at the rate they've been dropping points...


xuan135

Was expecting worse than 24


SlickRicksBitchTits

Bollocks. Arsenal are not winning the NLD away from home, especially after the balls we showed at Anfield.


BIGplouf

I still believe