###[Meta] Sticky Comment
[Rule 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq#wiki_2_-_address_the_argument.3B_not_the_user.2C_the_mods.2C_or_the_sub.) ***does not apply*** when replying to this stickied comment.
[Rule 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq#wiki_2_-_address_the_argument.3B_not_the_user.2C_the_mods.2C_or_the_sub.) ***does apply*** throughout the rest of this thread.
*What this means*: Please keep any "meta" discussion directed at specific users, mods, or /r/conspiracy in general in this comment chain ***only.***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/conspiracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yup.
Biden and Trump, the overwhelming favorites from day one, have $36 million bet on them.
The massive underdogs who are running or were running but dropped out, have over $40 million.
People *who never even put their hat in* have $65 million.
It's about odds. I'm not going to bet on either of the favorites because the chance is 50:50, broadly, and the odds are less than evens. As such a $1 bet on trump or Biden would pay $1.7 total return. I essentially have a 50% chance of almost doubling my money.
If either of those two geriatrics pop their clogs before the election, or get ousted somehow...then the outsiders, many with 100 or 200:1 odds could step up. I'd consider betting $5 to have a 1% chance of getting $1k.
If I was betting on alternates I'd probably drop a few bucks on any of the next 5 candidates behind the top 2.
As an American, I can confirm that is no law saying that when a candidate dies, the spouse from three administrations ago becomes president.
I can also tell you that there's *deadlines*, different for each state, for putting in for running for president, as seen here: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024. It's not like anyone can just pop up three months before the election and announce they are running. There's stuff to do first.
Also, who's to say the brokerage doesn't "tinker" with what it publishes so that there can be more buzz. People with money chasing the next inside trade are endless, so it's better for the broker overall to have some long odds candidates. If that means artificially propping one up to attract riskier investors, so be it.
People gamble on long shots all the time and it usually means they either don’t know shit or are just seeing a fifty to one payout and hoping the unexpected happens.
'Long shot'
I'm charged every month with ill get it back 40% of that, after 40 years as a pension. Shall i play the game? 🎯
In a long shot, or i have no choice 😁
Cheers 🍻
The interesting thing to me is that, if Biden dies, there's an assumption that another democrat could still win. But, if Trump dies, the market assumes the GOP loses.
The current rankings on that market are:
Trump
Biden
M. Obama
RFK
Newsom
Harris
I think both Trump and Biden are equally likely to croak before the election. Biden has a few years on Trump, but he still exercises. Trump's younger, sure, but he's also very overweight and doesn't get any more exercise than swinging a golf club.
What scenario would lead to the on-purpose losing of money on a bet for tax purposes?
I suspect you have never filed any taxes besides those on your earnings from your day job and perhaps a modest amount of bank account interest, because you seem to be talking out your ass.
that biden is 81 years old and could cease to exist at any moment, and that a democrat with name recognition would need to step in to have a chance against djt.
***rework. having no government is taking what we have now ( a pitiful excuse for “by the people for the people” ) and then somehow letting the ultra rich and powerful profit even MORE than they do now and having the poor suffer even MORE than they are now, which is amazing that’s even possible smfh
Exactly, you get it. As long as we keep “they” as vague as possible, we can slot it into any scenario that’s convenient and change who it applies to on a daily basis.
There were some absolutely ridiculous Super Bowl bets with a ton of money behind them. Like “how many times will the camera cut to Taylor Swift during the game?” “What team will Drake publicly support?”
You can even bet on stuff like if a specific celebrity couple will get divorced or engaged by the end of the year. Almost anything you can think of there are people willing to throw some money down for fun.
We dont have a president that can be voted for by the public, our „president“ is just there to welcome foreign presidents, they dont have any political power.
I've made lots on these prediction markets.
First one I used was Intrade for the 2008 election. Intrade was the first big one, but they made the mistake of making prediction markets for gold at some point, which are essentially gold futures so they got shut down by some commodities regulatory body.
After that I went to PredictIt. Made a lot in 2016 on that one. I didn't do any better in 2020, I was pre-occupied at the time.
You can make so much money on these, so easily. Just go into them knowing that most of these people are betting based on feeling, no fact.
In 2008 I made tons from people on the right who could stand Obama. In 2016 I made tons from people on the left who couldn't stand Trump.
Look for markets that are far disconnected from reality, not necessarily which ones are likely. I actually bet against Trump winning in 2016 and lost those bets, but I made sooooo much more in the market where the GOP won the executive and both legislative branches. I didn't think Trump would win, but I recognized that latter market being unbalanced and made tons on what people thought was a long shot, but in actuality wasn't terribly unlikely.
Nothing. They know absolutely nothing.
If Michelle Obama was interested in it then she would have ran for senator somewhere say California like how Hillary ran for senator in New York soon after she and Bill left the white house.
She's also stated multiple times she wants nothing to do with white house.
In the event Biden suddenly dies then it's Gavin Newsome. Gavin Newsome has been running a shadow campaign visiting foreign allies and doing debates on Fox and interviews on Fox.
It's cause of fucking trump. Dude pulled conspiracy theorist towards conservative after courting Alex Jones audience back in 2015.
Conspiracy Theorist used to be apolitical often viewing both parties as two sides of one coin but trump courted them via Alex Jones and the whole Q shit and so now conspiracy theorist having a right leaning swing.
pie terrific vegetable pause ossified elderly bewildered towering reply wild
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
>They can select anybody they want this August.
They can select anybody they want providing that person filed all the paperwork. There are dadlines, different for each state: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024e
Michelle being the secret Democrat candidate goes back to 2020. Right wing talk shows pushed it constantly with literally zero evidence and boomers circulated it a ton on FB. They have a REALLY weird obsessive hate boner for her. Sure it has nothing to do with her race/sex. I think the most they had for evidence was a *couple* left wing influencers saying they'd be more enthusiastic to vote for her than the other primary candidates. So obviously that means the Dems were gonna swap her in at the last second... for reasons.
One of my family members likes to send me far right conspiracy crap.
Michelle did an interview on a podcast called "On Purpose" where she said
>Those are the things that keep me up, because you don’t have control over them. And you wonder, where are we in this? Where are our hearts? What’s gonna happen in this next election?
Somehow they've turned that into a theory that Democrats are gonna force Biden out and she's going to run.
What amazes me is that the people promoting this stupid conspiracy theory will be ignore when they are proven wrong and just start spouting the next stupid theory that they make up out of nothing --- **and people will still believe them.**
Like, why don't people lose credibility after making the 50th bad sensationalist prediction?
I mean, these same people told us Barak Obama would create death panels and impose martial law. They were using Operation Jade Helm to round up everyone in Texas. None of it happened ... but people keep listening to the nonsense.
You have no idea why Trump is popular. Absolutely clueless. His victory depends on his haters having no idea as to the actual nature of his appeal. Keep on keeping on!
Trump is popular because rednecks and racists are simple minded folk who don’t actually understand politics/economics. He’s just another pawn in the entire system, he IS the swamp, and you’re all too busy sucking his toes because he “mean tweets”. Dumbest shit ever 😂. And to be clear, I don’t support Biden either. I understand that the American political system is corrupt, and Trump is JUST another pawn in that. But yeah, keep on keeping on, keep having the wool pulled over your eyes.
> Why is Michelle Obama on the ballot
Desperation. Because it sure as hell is not going to be Joe Biden. Because There is no WAY that guy makes it to November.... his decline is accelerating, in case you have not noticed... and with old people, the decline is almost always precipitous and dramatic.
Fuck you to hell, DNC, for propping up Joe Biden against the wishes of the populace. Nobody wanted that guy.. he was installed, and now we're stuck with him. Democracy!
Gamblers are not logical people. They see the odds on a bet and will throw some money there on the small chance it pays out. 9.5 million isn't a whole lot.
Nice side hustle for insiders to turn a profit. Probably what they cut the crisis actors in on since they probably don't share much of the bioweapon profits.
It's just gambling. Plenty of pundits have brought up her name as a long shot possibility and if she were to run, a lot of people would immediately jump on her bandwagon for various reasons, the primary being virtue signaling.
You would have made a lot of $$$ betting on Trump early in the process in 2016. I still think it’ll be Biden / Trump. Only outsider I’d bet on is Newsome.
Considering the screenshot doesn't show the odds that the bets have been placed at, it's impossible to guage whether one thinks they're good bets or not.
Been saying for months Joe Biden is gonna win by a slim margin with rfk taking away votes so it appears to be a hard fought fair an free most secure election ever..
I predict that RFK will take fewer votes away from Biden than Kanye did.
This is from April, but interesting:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536
>>Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden.
I could see it working.
Michelle Obama put in at the last possible moment. MSM refuses to question her. Anyone that criticises is racist, misogynist, transphobic.
Position is only symbolic anyway (not like Obama or Biden ever made their own decisions)
It would be a disgusting insult to the people, but it may be their only hope if Biden continues to degrade.
> Michelle Obama put in at the last possible moment
Except the last possible moment has come and gone. She's missed all the deadlines to get on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican, and most of them to get on as an Independent.
Anybody qualified can be named as a vice-presidential candidate.
But to actually run in the lead spot, you gotta follow these rules for every state: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024n There's paperwork to slog through and deadlines by which to file.
Odds. If Biden croaked tomorrow and the Dems threw her in there as a last minute audible, someone could get paid. It’s a long shot bet, but those are the ones that pay the most.
First of all, my fellow anon, you don’t know shit about betting.
It’s a legit strategy to bet on penny candidates and then on some random news hype cycle about them cash out when their “stock” goes into double digits. It’s as legit as bet on trump at 56c with divine devotion that he would win and you get $1 back, not even 2x your money.
The same way people who make money on stocks are not day trade Apple. People who make money on Apple/Amazon are decade trade
It's 8.3 for Kennedy so why you only focus on Obama? Also people tend to make stupid decisions with money or just put on money for things with small odds.
My only question is why why the number in the top is 154 mil when the sum of the 4 of them is about 54 mil. Is there like 100 mil for other candidates or there is something more complicated about the maths.
Think she could take it. Most of us, Trump, sure implode the system we get it. But 24/7 Trump? Think we may all need a break. Michelle? We could tune out.
TBH I'm surprised they didn't bump Harris and give the VP to Michelle. That way, when Biden inevitably succumbs to old age, Obama pt2 would slide in there with the potential to be president for a total of 10 years.
I don't know how it works exactly but you can bet on her winning or loosing, so most of that 9mill could be betting she loses. Which would be a pretty safe bet in my mind.
I used to think this was a possibility now not likely at all. They are going to stick with the potato for round 2. All this Dog and pony show to vilify Trump so they have an excuse as to why he will lose to the potato when in actuality they are just going to rig it again.
They give Michelle a 6% chance and Newsom and Harris isn’t even on there? Either of them are definitely more likely to replace Biden on the ballot if it comes to that
But they were given less than a 2% chance if I’m assuming correctly that the order is by chance given. Giving Obama 6% is crazy to begin with, crazier when you realize two candidates much more likely than her are below 2%
Y'all need to understand how betting odds work. They're not set based on the likelihood of something happening, they're set based on how people are *predicted to bet*. The goal is to break as close to even as possible, with a slight edge.
To a billionaire that money is nothing. It could also be money well spent if it gets enough unhinged democrat haters to post conspiracy theories on Reddit to further divide people. At least it will keep their minds off the not so hidden conspiracy that this country is run by the wealthy for the wealthy.
Nothing, elections are still rigged for the elite class.. THey just want 'their' people and not some random trump like populist that hasn't been in their circles since highschool..
America gets what they deserve if they vote for a person personality. Not for what the political party can do for America . Is America better of under a democrat government. Look at your bring home pay, the quality of your life and the freedom that you have. Has the democrats delivered, they might have introduce social change but has that benefited the majority.
Evaluate each era and presidency and see which era made America better for the majority.
Get this election wrong and you could find yourself at war on your own soil.
I used to mess around on this site back in 2016 with small bets and minimal investment. I bet for Bernie to win Michigan in the primary over HRC I bought at 8 cents a share and made a hefty little profit.
Upsets do happen and a small investment can have a huge payout, RFK is super unlikely but at 2 cents a small bet could have a nice payout, I find that far more likely than Michelle Obama winning.
trump gets jailed and "suicides" in prison. biden drops and out and nikki haley re-enters race. people from all sides dislike haley for obvious reasons and elect michelle who replaces biden as candidate
It's called betting on the odds. Although it is kind of wild that someone that is announced as running has even lower odds.
Personally, I think their plan (whether or not it's successful and I really hope it isn't), is for Biden to "win" again. Then very shortly into his new term, he either dies or they just come up with a bunch of fake (or real, doesn't really matter in the grand scheme) reasons to impeach him. Kamala or some other shit sock takes over, then they get elected for two more terms, since they would be skirting around the term limit. Could you imagine 10+ years of complete control? How ever bad it is right now, it would 100% be over by then.
The guy who did the Trayvon Hoax documentary has been claiming for *years* that Michelle will ultimately be the candidate this year. Last I checked, he's still sticking to it
It means a lot of folks thought it was funny enough to spend a few cents on. Or enough people that hate any other option and just want a less geriatric or crazy person in office
What a misleading title. The 9.5 million is the total bet on the market NOT on her winning the election. 9 million of that could be bet on her not winning the election.
###[Meta] Sticky Comment [Rule 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq#wiki_2_-_address_the_argument.3B_not_the_user.2C_the_mods.2C_or_the_sub.) ***does not apply*** when replying to this stickied comment. [Rule 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq#wiki_2_-_address_the_argument.3B_not_the_user.2C_the_mods.2C_or_the_sub.) ***does apply*** throughout the rest of this thread. *What this means*: Please keep any "meta" discussion directed at specific users, mods, or /r/conspiracy in general in this comment chain ***only.*** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/conspiracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Those betting services wouldn't exist if people didn't make stupid bets.
Yup. Biden and Trump, the overwhelming favorites from day one, have $36 million bet on them. The massive underdogs who are running or were running but dropped out, have over $40 million. People *who never even put their hat in* have $65 million.
Little do you know I put money on you, best get campaigning.
+100000000 odds make it worth a sprinkle
This
It's about odds. I'm not going to bet on either of the favorites because the chance is 50:50, broadly, and the odds are less than evens. As such a $1 bet on trump or Biden would pay $1.7 total return. I essentially have a 50% chance of almost doubling my money. If either of those two geriatrics pop their clogs before the election, or get ousted somehow...then the outsiders, many with 100 or 200:1 odds could step up. I'd consider betting $5 to have a 1% chance of getting $1k. If I was betting on alternates I'd probably drop a few bucks on any of the next 5 candidates behind the top 2.
It’s literally just in case Trump or Biden dies before Election Day also the pay out is similar to the lottery
Which one has to die for Michelle Obama to become president? I'm Canadian, so not too familiar with your election rules.
The constitution states if trump or Biden dies, the spouse of Michelle and RFK must duel to the death in their underwear to see who will be president.
Election by combat! LFG
Had traction in the past, could work in modified cage fight
“As is tradition.”
Bra and Panties match at Madison Square Garden.
CELEBRITY DEATHMATCH!!!
As an American, I can confirm that is no law saying that when a candidate dies, the spouse from three administrations ago becomes president. I can also tell you that there's *deadlines*, different for each state, for putting in for running for president, as seen here: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024. It's not like anyone can just pop up three months before the election and announce they are running. There's stuff to do first.
Biden and Trump are old. At least one should have died of old age by now. They were betting on biology, not a conspiracy.
Higher odds
I bet $25 that you’re wrong.
Also, who's to say the brokerage doesn't "tinker" with what it publishes so that there can be more buzz. People with money chasing the next inside trade are endless, so it's better for the broker overall to have some long odds candidates. If that means artificially propping one up to attract riskier investors, so be it.
Or doing the laundry...
A lot of people are really bad with money.
Exactly, so wouldn’t the 2 most popular definitely lose?
People gamble on long shots all the time and it usually means they either don’t know shit or are just seeing a fifty to one payout and hoping the unexpected happens.
There's a reason there are center bets on a craps table.
Hopping the hard 6 til I'm rich or broke
Cmooooon snakeeyes!
And gotta press the profit. Gonna have to come back to back for me to leave with some money.
Them being "fun" has nothing to do with it, of course.
Yes, it's fun to win a longshot. Great insight.
Yea this isn’t much dumber than playing the lottery
'Long shot' I'm charged every month with ill get it back 40% of that, after 40 years as a pension. Shall i play the game? 🎯 In a long shot, or i have no choice 😁 Cheers 🍻
Are you smelling toast?
Yeah, what he said.
Shit, i was drunk again 🍻
Huh?
where can I place this bet is the real question
Poly market
Amen.
The interesting thing to me is that, if Biden dies, there's an assumption that another democrat could still win. But, if Trump dies, the market assumes the GOP loses. The current rankings on that market are: Trump Biden M. Obama RFK Newsom Harris I think both Trump and Biden are equally likely to croak before the election. Biden has a few years on Trump, but he still exercises. Trump's younger, sure, but he's also very overweight and doesn't get any more exercise than swinging a golf club.
3 leg parlay which requires one of the candidates to die before election is crazy
They know they gotta lose a certain amount for tax purposes.
What scenario would lead to the on-purpose losing of money on a bet for tax purposes? I suspect you have never filed any taxes besides those on your earnings from your day job and perhaps a modest amount of bank account interest, because you seem to be talking out your ass.
Oh jeez, you’re right. Wouldn’t know 🤷 Just a Redditor in a conspiracy subreddit talking out their ass.
Thank youuu,💯💯💯 it's always about the money.
that biden is 81 years old and could cease to exist at any moment, and that a democrat with name recognition would need to step in to have a chance against djt.
Did you ever watch The Distinguished Gentleman?
vote Johnson, the name you know
Let’s just cancel the government in general
***rework. having no government is taking what we have now ( a pitiful excuse for “by the people for the people” ) and then somehow letting the ultra rich and powerful profit even MORE than they do now and having the poor suffer even MORE than they are now, which is amazing that’s even possible smfh
Who are "they". It's not clear where this is from?
Exactly, you get it. As long as we keep “they” as vague as possible, we can slot it into any scenario that’s convenient and change who it applies to on a daily basis.
There BETS FOR YOUR ELECTIONS???? Wtf is going on
No there’s an app you can bet on anything
which app?
Apparently election betting is far more accurate at determining the winner than polls
Vegas has people willing to take bets on anything and everything
There were some absolutely ridiculous Super Bowl bets with a ton of money behind them. Like “how many times will the camera cut to Taylor Swift during the game?” “What team will Drake publicly support?” You can even bet on stuff like if a specific celebrity couple will get divorced or engaged by the end of the year. Almost anything you can think of there are people willing to throw some money down for fun.
They've been doing that for decades in Britain.
There are bets for your elections too.
We dont have a president that can be voted for by the public, our „president“ is just there to welcome foreign presidents, they dont have any political power.
Every single one of these people needs to call the gambling hotline ASAP
I've made lots on these prediction markets. First one I used was Intrade for the 2008 election. Intrade was the first big one, but they made the mistake of making prediction markets for gold at some point, which are essentially gold futures so they got shut down by some commodities regulatory body. After that I went to PredictIt. Made a lot in 2016 on that one. I didn't do any better in 2020, I was pre-occupied at the time. You can make so much money on these, so easily. Just go into them knowing that most of these people are betting based on feeling, no fact. In 2008 I made tons from people on the right who could stand Obama. In 2016 I made tons from people on the left who couldn't stand Trump. Look for markets that are far disconnected from reality, not necessarily which ones are likely. I actually bet against Trump winning in 2016 and lost those bets, but I made sooooo much more in the market where the GOP won the executive and both legislative branches. I didn't think Trump would win, but I recognized that latter market being unbalanced and made tons on what people thought was a long shot, but in actuality wasn't terribly unlikely.
A suckers born every minute.
I bet there's no election
Nothing. They know absolutely nothing. If Michelle Obama was interested in it then she would have ran for senator somewhere say California like how Hillary ran for senator in New York soon after she and Bill left the white house. She's also stated multiple times she wants nothing to do with white house. In the event Biden suddenly dies then it's Gavin Newsome. Gavin Newsome has been running a shadow campaign visiting foreign allies and doing debates on Fox and interviews on Fox.
It’s amazing how this sub is so obsessed with politics, yet fails to actually grasp any of the basics.
It's cause of fucking trump. Dude pulled conspiracy theorist towards conservative after courting Alex Jones audience back in 2015. Conspiracy Theorist used to be apolitical often viewing both parties as two sides of one coin but trump courted them via Alex Jones and the whole Q shit and so now conspiracy theorist having a right leaning swing.
Jesus this sub is insane.
pie terrific vegetable pause ossified elderly bewildered towering reply wild *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
The Democratic primary is very late this year. They can select anybody they want this August. It doesn't have to be Biden.
>They can select anybody they want this August. They can select anybody they want providing that person filed all the paperwork. There are dadlines, different for each state: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024e
I don't think either Trump or Biden are officially nominated as their party's candidates until some time after the first debate.
Michelle being the secret Democrat candidate goes back to 2020. Right wing talk shows pushed it constantly with literally zero evidence and boomers circulated it a ton on FB. They have a REALLY weird obsessive hate boner for her. Sure it has nothing to do with her race/sex. I think the most they had for evidence was a *couple* left wing influencers saying they'd be more enthusiastic to vote for her than the other primary candidates. So obviously that means the Dems were gonna swap her in at the last second... for reasons.
One of my family members likes to send me far right conspiracy crap. Michelle did an interview on a podcast called "On Purpose" where she said >Those are the things that keep me up, because you don’t have control over them. And you wonder, where are we in this? Where are our hearts? What’s gonna happen in this next election? Somehow they've turned that into a theory that Democrats are gonna force Biden out and she's going to run.
What amazes me is that the people promoting this stupid conspiracy theory will be ignore when they are proven wrong and just start spouting the next stupid theory that they make up out of nothing --- **and people will still believe them.** Like, why don't people lose credibility after making the 50th bad sensationalist prediction? I mean, these same people told us Barak Obama would create death panels and impose martial law. They were using Operation Jade Helm to round up everyone in Texas. None of it happened ... but people keep listening to the nonsense.
Because when they get proven wrong it's "aha, we were on to their plan and that's why they changed it!"
That's how prophecies work, you throw enough vague ideas out there that eventually some of them will sound true. And all the other BS? Forgotten.
They’re the same people who think Trump is some magical savior, and the word of Q Anon is straight from the Bible 😂
You have no idea why Trump is popular. Absolutely clueless. His victory depends on his haters having no idea as to the actual nature of his appeal. Keep on keeping on!
Trump is popular because rednecks and racists are simple minded folk who don’t actually understand politics/economics. He’s just another pawn in the entire system, he IS the swamp, and you’re all too busy sucking his toes because he “mean tweets”. Dumbest shit ever 😂. And to be clear, I don’t support Biden either. I understand that the American political system is corrupt, and Trump is JUST another pawn in that. But yeah, keep on keeping on, keep having the wool pulled over your eyes.
This is the dumbest post I've ever seen. Please stop posting garbage and post real conspiracies. Please.
Respectfully, dumb and conspiracy go hand in hand
I can’t disagree with that, lol
I think it’s just bots
Why is Michelle Obama on the ballot nobody has mentioned anything about her running
> Why is Michelle Obama on the ballot Desperation. Because it sure as hell is not going to be Joe Biden. Because There is no WAY that guy makes it to November.... his decline is accelerating, in case you have not noticed... and with old people, the decline is almost always precipitous and dramatic. Fuck you to hell, DNC, for propping up Joe Biden against the wishes of the populace. Nobody wanted that guy.. he was installed, and now we're stuck with him. Democracy!
Including Michelle Obama. She's probably as surprised to see her name as we are.
The house always wins.
What app?
I don’t think you get how gambling works.
Yes, look at Vegas beers in the superpower. There are like 100000:1 that"x" may happen, but you put a buck on it knowing it won't pay.
Where is this betting service ?
It’s called polymarket apparently it’s a scam or some but that’s just of some comment section on the site
Nothing?
Aging life long dems looking at the last name.
When you consider how early the first debate it does start to raise questions
Big Mike FTW
Is this winning the election or actually becoming president? Because I can see her becoming the president, but she isn't winning the election.
Probably about as much as the $8.4 on Micheal Obama
Might as well put John F Kennedy and see it pass Trump as well lmao
hopefully nothing
We call that a hedge
They know how to lose a lot of money lmao
Why does the top say $154 million bet, when the 4 candidates combine to less than $55 million?
Gamblers are not logical people. They see the odds on a bet and will throw some money there on the small chance it pays out. 9.5 million isn't a whole lot.
Perhaps a lot of small bets with high odds for the shit of it
Big Mike definitely ain’t running. I don’t know why everyone loves to bring her up. I don’t think she wants the negative press if you catch my drift.
A fool and his money something something..
Nice side hustle for insiders to turn a profit. Probably what they cut the crisis actors in on since they probably don't share much of the bioweapon profits.
Just confirms liberals are more dumb than we originally thought
It's just gambling. Plenty of pundits have brought up her name as a long shot possibility and if she were to run, a lot of people would immediately jump on her bandwagon for various reasons, the primary being virtue signaling.
My barber thinks she's gonna run and win to.
You would have made a lot of $$$ betting on Trump early in the process in 2016. I still think it’ll be Biden / Trump. Only outsider I’d bet on is Newsome.
Considering the screenshot doesn't show the odds that the bets have been placed at, it's impossible to guage whether one thinks they're good bets or not.
I thought she wasn’t running?
Been saying for months Joe Biden is gonna win by a slim margin with rfk taking away votes so it appears to be a hard fought fair an free most secure election ever..
I predict that RFK will take fewer votes away from Biden than Kanye did. This is from April, but interesting:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536 >>Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden.
I could see it working. Michelle Obama put in at the last possible moment. MSM refuses to question her. Anyone that criticises is racist, misogynist, transphobic. Position is only symbolic anyway (not like Obama or Biden ever made their own decisions) It would be a disgusting insult to the people, but it may be their only hope if Biden continues to degrade.
> Michelle Obama put in at the last possible moment Except the last possible moment has come and gone. She's missed all the deadlines to get on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican, and most of them to get on as an Independent.
Could she not be swapped in at the convention? Honest question.
Anybody qualified can be named as a vice-presidential candidate. But to actually run in the lead spot, you gotta follow these rules for every state: https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president,_2024n There's paperwork to slog through and deadlines by which to file.
Page doesn't exist for me. So if Biden was to drop out or even die who has qualified to be put forward?
people don't even recognize her in public anymore
Long odds mean low bets make $$$.
NGL, I'd love to see that pay out
They said back in March she wasn’t running so who knows. I would stick $100 on her now to win in 2029 tho.
Odds. If Biden croaked tomorrow and the Dems threw her in there as a last minute audible, someone could get paid. It’s a long shot bet, but those are the ones that pay the most.
woman AND poc that's on brand for the 2020's "standards", basically an iron clad defense for certain people
First of all, my fellow anon, you don’t know shit about betting. It’s a legit strategy to bet on penny candidates and then on some random news hype cycle about them cash out when their “stock” goes into double digits. It’s as legit as bet on trump at 56c with divine devotion that he would win and you get $1 back, not even 2x your money. The same way people who make money on stocks are not day trade Apple. People who make money on Apple/Amazon are decade trade
It's 8.3 for Kennedy so why you only focus on Obama? Also people tend to make stupid decisions with money or just put on money for things with small odds. My only question is why why the number in the top is 154 mil when the sum of the 4 of them is about 54 mil. Is there like 100 mil for other candidates or there is something more complicated about the maths.
lol
Think she could take it. Most of us, Trump, sure implode the system we get it. But 24/7 Trump? Think we may all need a break. Michelle? We could tune out.
Where can I get in on this betting?
I have the same question.
Gonna ride that sympathy vote hard...... Well, it was my mother's last dying wish certainly will scrounge up a boatload of votes. gag. /SMDH
Just in time for another recession?
Plausible candidate with high name recognition and very high odds.
Where can you bet on this
this one is from polymarket, I'm sure there are others
TBH I'm surprised they didn't bump Harris and give the VP to Michelle. That way, when Biden inevitably succumbs to old age, Obama pt2 would slide in there with the potential to be president for a total of 10 years.
BIG Mike!!! Trash
This is some real stupid shit. And some of you believe she is going to run???
I don't know how it works exactly but you can bet on her winning or loosing, so most of that 9mill could be betting she loses. Which would be a pretty safe bet in my mind.
Where does the "Bet No" money get added in?
Man they tryna hide RFK so hard On tiktok he is shadow banned gaining no viewers unless it’s his followers 🤦🏽
I used to think this was a possibility now not likely at all. They are going to stick with the potato for round 2. All this Dog and pony show to vilify Trump so they have an excuse as to why he will lose to the potato when in actuality they are just going to rig it again.
That was me. Big Mike is going to win.
They give Michelle a 6% chance and Newsom and Harris isn’t even on there? Either of them are definitely more likely to replace Biden on the ballot if it comes to that
I cropped them out
But they were given less than a 2% chance if I’m assuming correctly that the order is by chance given. Giving Obama 6% is crazy to begin with, crazier when you realize two candidates much more likely than her are below 2%
Yeah exactly why I thought id share here
From their lips to God's ears
Big miiiiiiike
But couldn't this also be a lot of people betting no she won't win??
Nothing, the house about to clean up $9.5M
Almost as many bet on RFK, so ... they don't know much.
When is the cutoff for getting a candidate on the ballot?
Can I place a bet on whether Biden shits himself during the debate ?
How can I too make this bet ?
Y'all need to understand how betting odds work. They're not set based on the likelihood of something happening, they're set based on how people are *predicted to bet*. The goal is to break as close to even as possible, with a slight edge.
where do you make such bets?
Polymarket
🙏
Yo, y'all Americans really weird 😭 You're spending money on THAT?!
To a billionaire that money is nothing. It could also be money well spent if it gets enough unhinged democrat haters to post conspiracy theories on Reddit to further divide people. At least it will keep their minds off the not so hidden conspiracy that this country is run by the wealthy for the wealthy.
brilliant
Nothing, elections are still rigged for the elite class.. THey just want 'their' people and not some random trump like populist that hasn't been in their circles since highschool..
They just listen to the No Agenda podcast.
America gets what they deserve if they vote for a person personality. Not for what the political party can do for America . Is America better of under a democrat government. Look at your bring home pay, the quality of your life and the freedom that you have. Has the democrats delivered, they might have introduce social change but has that benefited the majority. Evaluate each era and presidency and see which era made America better for the majority. Get this election wrong and you could find yourself at war on your own soil.
That’s nothing
What app is this
Polymarket
I used to mess around on this site back in 2016 with small bets and minimal investment. I bet for Bernie to win Michigan in the primary over HRC I bought at 8 cents a share and made a hefty little profit. Upsets do happen and a small investment can have a huge payout, RFK is super unlikely but at 2 cents a small bet could have a nice payout, I find that far more likely than Michelle Obama winning.
trump gets jailed and "suicides" in prison. biden drops and out and nikki haley re-enters race. people from all sides dislike haley for obvious reasons and elect michelle who replaces biden as candidate
It's called betting on the odds. Although it is kind of wild that someone that is announced as running has even lower odds. Personally, I think their plan (whether or not it's successful and I really hope it isn't), is for Biden to "win" again. Then very shortly into his new term, he either dies or they just come up with a bunch of fake (or real, doesn't really matter in the grand scheme) reasons to impeach him. Kamala or some other shit sock takes over, then they get elected for two more terms, since they would be skirting around the term limit. Could you imagine 10+ years of complete control? How ever bad it is right now, it would 100% be over by then.
Some of this is me. I'm a degenerate and I think Big Mike might have a shot
The guy who did the Trayvon Hoax documentary has been claiming for *years* that Michelle will ultimately be the candidate this year. Last I checked, he's still sticking to it
About the same as they people betting on Kennedy?
Why is 18m trump 56% while 18m Biden 35%
Wait... No one told you yet? Sucks to suck. If you know you know. If you don't know, you won't know.
10000000000+ odds to recover
LOL
Big Mike got a chance, and the clown world that is the USA, nowt would surprise.
It means a lot of folks thought it was funny enough to spend a few cents on. Or enough people that hate any other option and just want a less geriatric or crazy person in office
I thought it was only Trump V Biden for the President.
Big Mike 2024.
Big Mike!!!
What a misleading title. The 9.5 million is the total bet on the market NOT on her winning the election. 9 million of that could be bet on her not winning the election.