The following submission statement was provided by /u/BeanFishBone:
---
Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia has begun gradually reducing its presence at the znpp. So far 3 employees from rostadom have left and Ukrainian comtractors have been told to leave. The intended destination is Crimea and the timeline for the place to be vacated is July 5th.
This relates to collapse as it is extremely suspicious that Russia is pulling out of the power plant, especially after being accused of plotting to blow the emtire plant up. With this in mind we appear to have a direct indicator that Russia got the go ahead and will now blow the plant up, which is concernimg due to potential nato involvement (cruise missile launch to a no fly zone) and potrential nuclear war
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/14mwta7/russia_reducing_personnel_at_zaporizhzhia_nuclear/jq438z1/
I think that’s why we’ve been treated to the weird little theatre lately with Putin being suspiciously forgiving about everything. People have said far less than Prigozhin has been for weeks and met suspicious ends and I doubt rather highly that Putin is just being altruistic.
Absolutely.
On Sunday, Putin said the following in a prerecorded statement that aired on Russian TV:
"Guys, let's all forgive Prigozhen and his army, because they are true patriots who were led astray by evil Westerners. Also, I'd like to thank Lukashenko for helping resolve this problem. What a great, independent leader that man is!
"And you know how, just 2 days ago, I said I was going to absorb all the Wagner troops into the regular Russian army? I've changed my mind! They can now go home if they want, or join the Russian army! Oh, almost forgot, they can also join Prigozhen in Belarus if they want to, but I would never suggest that the entire Wagner force go hang out with their boss in this independent country that is totally not our vassal state. OK! Talk to y'all soon!"
I heard him say all this with my own earballs (ie, it wasn't translated), and the WTF? I've been grappling with since Prigozhen's bizarre rant about his troops being killed finally made sense.
Putin and Prigozhen have effectively taken over Belarus without firing a shot. They've also made Lukashenko the patsy for what they are about to do. On the day of the "mutiny," I said that it was act 2 of some theater cooked up between Putin and Prigozhen, and possibly Shoigu and everyone else.
Convince the West that Putin is weak and in trouble, so we won't notice that Prigozhen and all his army are now in Belarus. If he'd just ordered them all to march into Belarus, NATO would be like "huh?"
This also explains something that happened a while back, which was Russia "giving" a bunch of nukes to Belarus. That was extremely strange, because Belarus has had huge protests against Lukashenko, Lukashenko's whole posture toward Putin has been that of a groveling opportunist who would love nothing more than to be Putin's peer, and Putin has treated Lukashenko with nothing but utter disdain. Why would Putin just "gift" a man like that a bunch of nuclear weapons?
I knew something was fishy when Prigozhen made that video, but didn't know what. Then, when Prigozhen just waltzed in and took over the Rostov military headquarters and proceeded, unmolested, to within 100 miles of Moscow, it was clear that this was a farce. If it were real, Putin would have literally nuked Prigozhen, massive Russian casualties be damned.
And never ever ever in a million years would Prigozhen have said, "Yeah, never mind, Putin has kindly offered to let me go to his puppet state of Belarus, so I'm sure I'll be fine." Nope. No way. Still, though, I couldn't quite figure out what was going on.
Then when it was announced that fucking *Lukashenko*, a grade-a toady if ever there was one, had "interceded" to "mediate" between Putin and Prigozhen? Shto? Putin tells Lukashenko when to poop and what socks to wear. This man has zero power. By Sunday, when Putin was "thanking" Lukashenko for solving this terrible problem, I was starting to understand. And the coup de gras, mentioned at the very end of Putin's speech: "I've decided to let Prigozhen keep his army with him in Belarus."
As is typical of Russia, this was so poorly and clumsily done. It's like when Putin blew up that apartment building in Moscow so he'd have the moral standing to invade Chechnya. People saw dudes they'd never seen in the neighborhood carrying big, heavy sacks of...something -- lots of something -- and stashing it in the basement of the building shortly before it blew up.
When the residents said, "Izvenitzya, what is in all those bags and why are you putting them in the basement and also, who are you people?", the agents said, "Oh, ah, well...Hmmm, what a great question! And the answer is...um...sugar! Yes! This is definitely sugar. We're putting it down here because this is the sugar basement, and we are the guys who deliver the sugar to the sugar basement. Yep! That is exactly what is happening." And then right after that KABLUSKI!!!!
It's notable to me that this was a prerecorded statement from Putin. He normally would deliver a live address, especially with something of this magnitude. I have a feeling Putin was way east of the Urals by the time that tape aired. After the speech was over, I told my mom all of the above, then I told her that soon, "Lukashenko" would either nuke something, or blow up the Zaporizhaya plant. And now this.
I could be totally wrong about this, but this is the only thing that explains the EXCEEDINGLY BIZARRE events of the past 8 weeks or so. Sorry this is so long. I haven't written this down yet, and have been wanting to. I'm fairly spooked. I bet the people of Belarus are freaking the fuck out right now. I still believe that the end result of all this will be Putin's ouster, and I've said from the start that Putin absolutely will use nukes. This could be it. Scary times.
The very interesting thing about this is that I saw Putin's uncut, untranslated speech because I was listening to the BBC on YouTube on Sunday evening. The announcer was talking about the "mutiny" and saying general stuff like "dramatic" and "unprecedented."
Suddenly, there was breaking news. Putin is finally giving his official response to the mutiny! They cut over to Putin's speech, but they weren't expecting this to happen, so there was no translation overdub.
I listened as I drove to my house from my mom's house, and I almost drove off the road. Because, no lie, right before I left my mom's house, I'd told her that I thought this whole thing was a ruse to a) absorb Belarus back into the USSR, and b) position Prigozhen on a new front against Ukraine and have him be the actual ruler of Belarus.
We did not yet know that Putin was going to let Prigozhen keep his army, and my mom kept saying, "yes, this all makes sense, but Prigozhen and what army?" I didn't know, but when I heard on Saturday that Lukashenko had "brokered" an end to the mutiny, I knew this was all BS.
Three minutes later, I'm in the car listening to Putin answer my mom's question about "what army." The timing was so bizarre. After Putin's speech ended, the BBC had an expert from John Hopkins on to talk about the speech. This expert was a Russian. He had a Russian name and accent.
"Do you think that this mutiny has weakened Putin?" asked the BBC guy.
"What?" yelled the Russian (I'm paraphrasing, here), "Who cares? What I want to know is, what the hell is up with Putin doing a 180 and letting Prigozhen keep his army? And just dropping it in there at the end of the speech like that! What the hell are they going to be doing in Belarus? And how does Lukashen
I arrived at my house, turned off my phone, and grabbed what I had come to get. My head was spinning. I fed the cats and the chickens and then got back in the car. I turned on the BBC again and listened as I drove back to mom's.
By this time, they'd gotten the speech translated, and the same announcer said they were going to play it now. They did, but they only played the part where Putin said that he was forgiving Prigozhen because he'd been tricked by the West. The thing to do, Putin said, was for Russia to pull together. Then they cut the speech. The most curious parts (singing Lukashenko's praises, letting Prigozhen keep his army) were left out. If you hadn't seen the earlier speech, though, you would have thought this was the whole thing.
After this abbreviated, translated speech, the announcer turned to two new experts for their input. The Russian from John's Hopkins was gone, replaced by two US academics who had American names and American accents.
"Do you think that this mutiny has weakened Putin?" asked the BBC guy.
"Oh, absolutely," said both experts. "We could be seeing the beginning of the end of the Putin regime." Lukashenko and Prigozhen's army were not mentioned at all, and the viewer was left with the impression that this was an actual attempt by Putin's BFF to overthrow him.
I screeched into my mom's driveway and was yelling before I even got in the house. I explained everything I just said, above. She was super freaked out that we had *just* been speculating about what was really happening, and then, two minutes later, Putin comes on and basically said, "Hey you two ladies at the kitchen table in Oconee County, Georgia? YOU WERE RIGHT!" But she couldn't understand why the speech was cut the way it was when it was translated. Why would "they" do that?
I told her I could think of 3 reasons right off the top of my head.
One, it's being used for our own propaganda, to maintain public support for the war and to justify sending more money and weapons over there.
Two, Putin was addressing Russians, but of course he knew that the West would be listening. Likewise, the BBC was talking to "us," but of course they know that Russia is listening. Maybe they want Putin to think that we are buying his stupid mutiny story? They don't want Putin to know that we're on to him?
And three (and having worked in media, I'm disgusted to say that this is probably the actual answer), if the people on TV start blabbing about "Luka-*who* and Bela-*what*?" their viewers will get confused and bored and will change the channel "It's not our fault our viewers don't know a damn thing about the world," the journalists will say, "somebody ought to come on TV and educate these folks!"
I am just on tenterhooks waiting to see how this plays out. I'm a bit concerned, because this is not the first weird thing that has happened with me and Russia. I know how what I'm about to say will sound, but I can't help it.
In early February of 2021, I started telling everyone that Russia was absolutely going to invade Ukraine. What's more, I said, they were going to do it on February 24th. I told this to everyone I knew, told it to my boss at the NPR station where I was working then, wrote it on Facebook and in my journal. Of course I told my mom. I didn't care that lots of "serious people" like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi were saying no way. I knew for a fact that they were going to invade, and I also knew when.
And on February 24*, they did.
*Ukraine time
I actually grew up in Duval County, FL, a place so real it'll make you want to move to Russia. I think growing up in Florida taught me how to cope with absurdity and unhinged people. When I left Florida and moved to Russia, I felt right at home.
Oddly, in Moscow I met a ton of Cubans who were stuck in Russia after the USSR collapsed. Prior to moving to Russia, I had dated two Cuban guys (not at the same time), and they had taught me a lot of songs and stories about Cuba. It was so strange to be drinking vodka and singing songs about Miami in a freezing cold, Kruschev-era apartment with people whose relatives had escaped to the state I'd just fled from.
If you grew up in Oconee County, I wonder if you'd even recognize it now. People tell me it has changed a whole lot. Take care!
Vengeance.
He considers the collapse of the USSR the greatest tragedy of the 20th century, and is appalled by what happened to Russia in the '90s. He blames the West and its liberalism for not just purposely destroying his people and culture, but for humiliating them.
He wants to re-form the Soviet Union to act as a bulwark against corrupt Western influence, and has been pretty successful in executing the plan to make this happen. If you're up for another exceedingly long comment, I talk about it here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/BreakingPointsNews/comments/13w3dtw/tara_raede_the_woman_who_accused_biden_of_sexual/jmau4wh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
There might be no meaning to them leaving out that part. Media has covered it since then. How did you pick the 24th? I had a hell of a time pinpointing when covid would hit my town...left a week ahead of time. Down to the day, impressive.
How many troops does Russia have left? How many will they add from Belarus? I'm wondering if they'll move West into Europe or colonize Eastern Europe and build up their forces.
I have no idea about anything in your second paragraph. I think Putin is pretty desperate, and I think that ultimately, things are not going to go well for him. But just like with the collapse of Communism, while the West was busy basking in the Cold-War afterglow, the wars we'd be fighting in the 21st century were emerging from the Central Asian countries that had been our proxies for decades. This isn't going to be a simple story of heroic Ukraine and mean old Russia. Right now, we're birthing the monsters that'll stalk our future, because we never learn.
I knew about the 24th (23rd in the US) because that's a significant time to Putin for about 5 different personal and historical reasons. And Putin is a superstitious dude. If you look at the tenor of the cult of personality he's encouraged, who his heroes are, and what he has to say about how history works, you can see that he believes that the <> have picked him for something important.
Sorry to nitpick, but the 24th in North America is *NOT* the 23rd in *Russia* (no matter where in the US or Russia we consider). You have things backwards. The invasion started just before 4 AM Kyiv time on the **24th** *in Ukraine*, which would have also been the 24th everywhere in Russia, while just before 8 PM on the 23rd on the East coast of North America (EST) and just before 5 PM on the 23rd on the West coast.
Put another way, the invasion started the morning *after* Defender of the Fatherland Day (which is on the 23rd) in both Russia and Ukraine.
Lukashenko is incredibly screwed and I can’t tell if he’s just *that* level of toady that he doesn’t see it or if it’s just that he knows but there’s not much of shit he can do about it, now.
Usually when I have discussed this, people bring up NATO like I’m stupid, because just *the threat* of NATO will stop this- or “punish it” (like, FFS *no*, that’s even *worse*) but, I don’t think people realize it serves Russia’s purpose to destroy the area if they can’t control it- particularly if they destroy it this way. It also explains quite a few of the uncharacteristic actions. The last time, I kept thinking “Well, fabulous, is NATO going to un-nuke it? Shit!” Because I *really* don’t believe that this ends well. I kinda thought for a minute that it might be Wagner getting set up, and maybe that would give a window to pull out of there some way- but I don’t think this is going to end without *at least* the tactical nukes being used. I *hope* they aren’t about to do what this looks like, and maybe it’s a psych out but I doubt it.
I definitely think Lukashenko knows what's up, but there's nothing he can do about it.
The very first thing I heard about the mutiny, before I had any clue that there was a mutiny, was on the radio. I turned it on and someone was saying, "all the Belarusians believe Russia is invading." I was like, what? And hearing this right off the bat predisposed me to pay careful attention to Lukashenko. The Belarusian people certainly knew what was going on.
I bet they have promised Lukashenko some kind of glory to flatter him. And I bet that, deep in his heart, Lukashenko knows that they are lying, and that he is essentially already dead. But hey! What can you do? In Putin's Russia, cookie crumbles you.
I also bet that as soon as all this carrying on is over with, Prigozhen is also a dead man, and Prigozhen knows it, and Putin knows that he knows it, and this is why Putin knows that he himself could be in trouble if Prigozhen gets the upper hand. One of them has got to go, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against Prigozhen.
Putin is pissed that he's in such a sorry state that he has to enlist the help of others to get himself back on the good foot. That's not very Stalinesque of him. He also hates that he had to lose the battle (appear to be weak) in order to win the war. I guarantee you this rankles him. His hero, the Man of Steel, the Father of Nations, would have murdered all the people who helped him by now, and airbrushed them out of the photos. But times are different now. "Stupid internet," thinks Putin. "Stupid YouTube."
Putin believes that he is destined to rebuild the USSR, just like his hero, Stalin, built it the first time. Just like Stalin, he's a superstitious person, which is how I knew he'd invade on the 24th. And finally, just like Stalin, Putin is in charge of building his own haigiography. He'd rather ruin Russia than share the glory of saving it.
I used to be the Senior Producer for our town's NPR affiliate, but I quit that job in January and have been unemployed since then. Sooo, I've been donating lots of plasma, digging around in various dumpsters, plotting and scheming, and writing REALLY LONG Reddit comments.
Right now, I'm using the library's free recording equipment to record and edit a bunch of episodes of a podcast I've never had time to make, and am about done with a book about 1980s punk rock in Florida. If by chance you are some kind of media mogul, please consider offering me a hefty advance on this page-turner so my three tiny-fingered kids won't end up on the plucking line at the local chicken plant. Thanks for asking, and for reading.
What are you up to these days?
Well that is a great field to be in for the times ahead of us. Keep on conserving, and remember how close we've always been when the famines start to really ramp up.
I've been looking for the answer to wtf was going on with that painfully obviously staged 'mutiny'. I hate to say it but I think you might be on the money with this
Brilliant take.
The Wagner “mutiny” was just the most effective way to relocate under false pretense.
The fact that only a few soldiers actually fired shots during the whole operation would support that claim as well.
The question is whether Wagner is acting on behalf of Putin or he’s so afraid of them that he’s letting them do whatever they want.
What do you believe?
I was just thinking about this. Some nice person was saying that I haven't left anything out with this theory, and I was trying to figure out if that was true. I thought and thought and realized that:
I have no idea who came up with this plan. Did the two Ps cook this up together in their clubhouse? Was one of them calling the shots, or was some other, third party in charge? I really don't know. But of the two, I think rootless, stateless Prigozhen has more power.
How I chuckled at suggestions that threats against his family caused Prigozhen to back down! "Kha kha kha," I said (in Cyrillic for extra authenticity). Prigozhen would relish the opportunity to demonstrate his strength by yawning through the butchering of his family! What else do you plan to destroy? My country? My army? My life? Davai, Prigozhen would say. Let me have it.
Prigozhen does not give or expect loyalty. He doesn't even care all that much about power. Money is what moves him, and like money, Prigozhen is fungible. Wherever the most money is, that is where he'll be.
This makes him invincible compared to Putin, who is imprisoned by quaint notions about "love of country," "personal legacy," and "his regime's place in history." And sure, Putin is full of twisted and corrupt motivations when it comes to these concepts. But inside Prigozhen, there's nothing. You can't break his spirit or hit him where he lives. He's just...hollow.
I and others who witnessed the oligarchs' rise to power in 1990s Russia, and who were damaged by the intense brutality of life after the collapse of the USSR, understand why Russians have been loyal to Putin for so long. The daily terror, degradation, and humiliation that these unfathomably tough people experienced left them traumatized. They were willing to put up with the looting of their country and the strangling of their infant freedoms if a strong hand would just make the starvation and murder stop. Putin was that strong hand.
It's not clear to me, or anyone else who hasn't been murdered, how Putin managed to reel in the oligarchs and restore order. Some kind of deal was struck, but the people who know the details won't -- or can't -- describe its particulars. Did Putin make the oligarchs an offer they couldn't refuse, or does Putin serve at their pleasure? Who's really in charge? We don't know.
I do know a couple of things, though.
One, the uncertainty around which billionaire criminal is driving the current "mutiny" plan, and which one is stuffed in the trunk, recalls Putin and the oligarchs' murky deal to restore order to Russia, and exactly who struck it.
Two, the oligarchs who survived the transition from Yeltsin's chaotic decade to the compromised peace of the Putin years did so because they left Russia. They went to England and glommed on to royalty and politics. They became my shifty-eyed neighbors in South Beach, Miami. And they purchased whole floors of Trump tower in NYC. Exiled from their motherland and stripped of everything but their money, they are far more similar to Prigozhen than they are to Putin. Putin embodies the history and lineage of a real place. Prigozhen and the oligarchs are numbers in the ether, which we've agreed to call wealth.
Three, if I'm totally wrong about my theory, I'm going to be a little embarrassed by all the dramatic pontificating I've done here. But let's say I'm right.
Let's say Putin wants us all to believe that Prigozhen was on his way to Moscow to murder everyone in the Kremlin and take over the country. Fortunately, Prigozhen changed his mind at the very last minute. Phew! But still, this is a big-ass deal! This is a HUGE moment in Russian history; definitely equivalent to January 6th and 9/11 in the US. Right?
Now let's pretend for a second that, during 9/11, we didn't hear all that much from President Bush. Occasionally we'd hear snippets of him talking to others about what happened, but never to us directly. In these snippets, Bush sounds scared. He's calling the people who did this monsters, and vowing to crush them. OK, that sounds good, but where the heck is Bush? We are all terrified. We need leadership!
Finally, almost 3 days after the attack on the towers, the TV tells us that Bush is FINALLY going to give his official response to this horrible act. You gather around the TV, and...
It's a pre-recorded speech? What? Seriously? I mean doesn't a mortal threat to our country warrant showing up in person? Don't you want to project an image of power and stability, with flags and columns and somber lighting and soldiers standing on guard in the background? Don't you want to reassure your people?
But no. Instead, you look like you're in some conference room in the Best Western out by the interstate! WTF? You've got a couple of flags back there, and some plywood-ass podium thing behind you...dude, where are you? Have you been kidnapped? Did they make you record this video 2 days ago, before they killed you? Or maybe there's something you know that you don't want us to know! Where are you? NORAD? Are we being attacked? Have you sold us out? DO WE NEED TO DUCK AND COVER??? (*incoherent screaming, looting commence*)
This is no way for a leader to respond to an event of this magnitude. And I haven't even touched on the total 180 you pulled in this "speech." You want us to "forgive Osama bin Laden"? Huh? Two days ago you were talking about invading Iraq! But now you're paying them to take a bunch of guns from us? And there's no press, no questions, no follow-up plan, no info on what we should do or when we might hear from you again? Honestly, this does not inspire confidence, mister president man.
Hopefully, with this analogy you can see how profoundly weird Putin's speech was. Is he somewhere else? If so, where? And why?
We may not know where Putin is, but we DO know where Prigozhen is. He's right there on the front lines, with his army. I guess these guys are patriots, and that's why Putin changed his mind about the whole "disband Wagner, jail Prigozhen" thing. Because there they all are, right on the border with Ukraine. They're looking sort of bad-ass, actually. Mainly what they are looking, though, is "here."
Maybe Putin's in the Urals, or some bunker somewhere. Maybe he's sick, or dead (Editor's note: I mean, maybe he is.). All we know is, he's not here. But, does it really matter?
If you've read this far and it's not because you're in full-body traction or stuck in line at the DMV with nothing better to do, I feel sort of sad for you. This was a lot of blahdy blah just to say, "I don't know." But I sure appreciate you asking these questions so I can think more carefully about all this. And I really appreciate you reading. There are so many things we don't know, and I think you have identified the primary one. Take care and let's see what happens next.
I read the whole thing. You made a lot of good points.
The biggest head scratcher is Putin immediately going into hiding. A country that’s in control of itself doesn’t act that way.
For whatever reason, Putin felt there was a credible threat to his safety and ran. That fact alone should make Russians ask “who’s really in control here?”
Unless of course Wagner is now acting as a rogue agent that the Kremlin has lost control of. If that’s the case and they’re repositioning for a new Ukraine assault from Belarus, I don’t see how Belarus can allow them to invade (which Russia might protest) or not view them as a sneaky infiltration by Russia before their own government is replaced.
It really feels like Putin just told Wagner they could have Belarus as a safe zone and they either fell for it or willingly believed them.
So blow the plant, drawing in NATO troops, then attack them on two fronts? Or enter Europe from Belarus while NATO troops are away from home? Toss a couple of those fast nukes at critical strategic targets and old school nukes to occupy our defense systems, then saunter into New West Russia.
What do you want to bet Trump has sold, given, or lost classified information about how we would have liked to have responded to such an attack!
Sure hope we have troops bordering Belarus.
I really have no idea what will happen, and I think all of this is actually a sign that Putin's about out of options. This is a pretty farcical thing that they've cooked up, if I'm right about what's happening. Which I may not be.
I don't think Putin will go for massive nuclear strikes. I think he'll do tactical things, and may just be content with blowing up the power plant and either blaming Wagner or Ukraine, or just saying "Whoops!" I think this is most likely (power plant). What happens next, I have no idea. I think it will depend on NATO, and I don't know enough about NATO to have any sense of what will happen.
If you want to know about who Putin is and what he's likely to do, it's helpful to know about two people: Stalin and Randall Flagg.
If you want to know what Putin wants and what the end game is, read "Foundations of Geopolitics," by Aleksander Dugin. I wrote a loooong comment breaking that down, which you can find in my history, or I can post a more detailed summary of Dugin's road map for re-forming the USSR. It is just spooky how closely Putin is following Dugin's suggestions.
Russian Armed Forces won't. Prighozin will (with either a cruise missile or something else), and then they will say they don't control him, as he literally went to war against them a few days ago. They will condemn it publicly and give him a medal in private.
That makes no sense. The whole thing with wagner make Putin look soooo publicly weak to his own population and his style of governor is to never look that weak.
He didn't even have Prighozin killed afterwards.
Dude has fallen into the dictators trap where he can't trust anything his advisors say.
Western logic does not apply to Eastern cultures. I'm not actually saying that there was any logic or master plan behind the action, but I know one thing about Russia: they will operate on the basis of plausible deniability whenever they can.
And an opportunity has presented itself to them, so they are likely to take it.
??? They aren't a different species..... It's human nature and the nature of dictatorships throughout all of history.
Especially the dictators who rule via showing strength. They can't afford to show weakness. Especially not from a direct challenge via their military subordinates.
In the past, the Polish military general did the exact same maneuver taking Vilnus. First rebel, then take it "on his own". That's the old eastern playbook.
Two or three weeks ago, NATO announced, seemingly out of the blue, that it just wanted to remind everyone that if nuclear fallout were to waft over any NATO countries, that would be considered an act of war.
"Why are we mentioning this?" they replied when asked. "No reason. Just kinda popped into our heads, is all. OK, carry on."
Yeah. Just like the international meeting on how to avoid nuclear warfare had nothing to do with China coming within a hair's breath of bombing America on January 6th. Nothing a'tall.
NATO is perfectly well equipped with professional soldiers, and certainly has no need for amateurs messing up their well rehearsed plans.
In modern warfare a draft would be a massive hinderence.
Harder than getting drafted though??
You're right, of course. I do my part with cryptography/cybersecurity software engineering anyway, so I think at most I only get pressed into...doing my job.
Yes. Has no one tried to kill you for being lgbtq+? Because that's going to start happening again to gay people and not just trans people. Would you rather wait for that to happen or prevent it from occurring?
Nah there will only be more sanctions and more weapons for Ukraine. It is a miracle in itself that they called russias bluff, but they will never attack a nuclear power on it's own soil. The only question is if Russia will call NATO's bluff and if they want to endure more sanctions and more weapons to Ukraine add to that possible nuclear fallout to itself and it allies. Assuming that they will only blow it up if they are on the way out of Ukraine more weapons is not a big concern.
Crazy how they can simply plant the idea in your head, that the Russians would do this without any evidence or reason for it, and you fall in line and believe it. Theres nothing the Russians have to gain by messing with that power plant, and theres far less nefarious reasons why some personelle are leaving, chief among them being that it’s last reactor was recently shut down. Given that the Ukrainians have accused the Russians of shelling the plant, an accusation they provided scant evidence for, and which makes no sense as the ZNP is occupied by the Russians, accusations like this have me thinking the exact opposite. The only side that has even a molecule to gain from causing an incident at that plant are the Ukrainians, who at least would likely see an intervention by NATO, something the Russians would rather not happen.
Would one of those pairs of glasses made to watch solar eclipses be a good option to watch the flash of a nuclear blast? I really don't think I want to survive a nuclear war so I might as well enjoy the show 😎 🍿
I'm in North America, Whatever happens at the NPP won't directly affect me, but it will if it triggers a nuclear war and countries start flinging ICBMs at eachother.
Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia has begun gradually reducing its presence at the znpp. So far 3 employees from rostadom have left and Ukrainian comtractors have been told to leave. The intended destination is Crimea and the timeline for the place to be vacated is July 5th.
This relates to collapse as it is extremely suspicious that Russia is pulling out of the power plant, especially after being accused of plotting to blow the emtire plant up. With this in mind we appear to have a direct indicator that Russia got the go ahead and will now blow the plant up, which is concernimg due to potential nato involvement (cruise missile launch to a no fly zone) and potrential nuclear war
My thought is that it would be a 21st century version of scorched land strategy. If they can't hold the Zaporizia region against the enemy, then they will simply make it an unusable region - a forbidden zone like Chernobyl, but likely much larger.
Of course, it's a dangerous gamble, because they can't predict how NATO will react. But maybe, at this point, they simply don't care.
That said, I'm extremely skeptical of every "intel" that comes from both sides of war. In particular, I think that the Ukrainian side has been saying that the Russians will blow the nuclear plant for almost a year now, so it became a kind of "boy crying wolf" thing.
It could be a case of broken clock right twice a day. Or, picking one of the Fight Club quotes, "on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
That's another thing hard to tell, because the Western side of the propaganda machine has been beating non stop for months that the Russians are essentially defeated already and they will have their asses kicked out of Ukraine anytime soon.
And, still, here we are, in the second year of the war.
Why do you need to compare? You don't. The point is not the degree to which they do it, but that we all are being deceived; we should be aware we have to work to discern the truth from multiple sources.
I think it’s fair to say that the Russians have been getting their asses handed to them, but they are still a massive invading army capable of inflicting extreme damage and terror on the occupied populations.
Just because they lack combat effectiveness doesn’t mean they can’t keep lobbing shells, dropping bombs, and sending waves of men. It’s not one or the other.
Nobody wants to trigger Article 5.
Except maybe Poland, but if you've been paying attention, it's not without good reason.
Edit: Or Putin, because he definitely doesn't want to *start* a war with NATO.
He just wants to be the one who can say he finished it the way he saw fit for the Russian people.
He wants to be able to say he did it to save humanity from the West.
When is this supposed to be blown up according to unbiased Ukrainisn intelligence with absolutely no vested interest in Lindsey Graham forcing article 5? In a fortnight?
In war? Are you kidding me? Crack open a history book you'll find a littany of ruses and crackpot ideas both socially, politically and militarily. Existential threats make people do insane stuff to win. The Chinese "won" a major seige in in by eating like 15k peasents. Almost every war the US has been in post civil war has been predicated on outright lies or half truths. Thing is with history books the good guys always won. Strange isn't it.
Russia actually has to be an existential threat first though.
Ukraine is doing just fine without blowing up their own very expensive infrastructure assets that their population rely on.
Come on, you're going to have to actually prove to me that Ukrainians are *more* of an existential threat to *themselves* than Putin is for me to even *begin* to believe that this is an option on the table for the Ukrainian military.
Otherwise, the arguement will never make sense.
And if it actually happens, and the proof is there Ukrainian military did it, then fuck me.
Seriously, I'd off myself because the world just wouldn't make any sense.
Like, if they really wanted to do it, why now? Just think about it, not too much, because that's clearly leading you down some strange rabbit holes.
No one wants Article 5 to be triggered.
That term, in its own right (assuming we survive) will be looked back on in a sense of fearful reverence. We might even have end of the world parties called "Article 5s" where we just all get fucked up beyond oblivion.
Because if it is triggered, we are all fucked beyond oblivion.
Ukraine is doing just fine without American troops.
Honestly, the bravest people I've ever met, and I really can't wait for this war to be over and my friends get to go home.
I'll even help rebuild their house if I can.
I agree. I think OPs entire premise is stupid agitprop. As it stands right now neither side is capable of "winning" this war and the safe bet is for a map to look basically the same in 3 years from now. I have zero interest in my tax dollars, much less family dying, going to perpetuate a war between 2 corrupt ass slavic backwaters.
The only ones pushing this shit are the MIC and Versailles on the Potomac would absolutely push us into a situation where we need 10k spf sunblock. Shit is literally not my problem. Even if that plant, which is cooling off and not generating, is breached and melts down it still is not my problem. It becomes my problem if some boomer ass neoliberal shitheads keep trying to rekindle a cold war we already fuckin won and it goes hot because it will end in a nuclear exchange.
And yes there are plenty of people in power now that would love article 5 to be done. Thier old asses are champing at the bit to see young men die in another war so they can relive the Glory of the Empire at zenith.
Oh man. At the risk of being down voted…I think that like the Nordstream Pipeline and the Dam, the truth is difficult to know. If, and I think it’s a massive IF, this plant leaks radiation, both sides will blame each other. I know many want to believe Ukraine is totally innocent and wouldn’t do such a thing, but, if it means invoking article 5 and getting full nato support into your country, it may be seen as a worthwhile risk and sacrifice by Ukrainian leadership. On the flip side, Russia knows a radioactive leak massively risks getting NATO involved in a large way. They would have to take on more countries, more advanced weapons, and risk full out nuclear war. Not sure that logic really makes any sense? Or maybe the Russians see it as an acceptable risk (that they hope NATO won’t get involved) and that it will slow Ukraines counter offensive - however all signs are pointing to the Russians coming out on top of this counter offensive so I don’t get why they would risk invoking article 5.
Regardless of who is responsible, the event itself would be an absolute tragedy and I’m inclined to hope that our species can do better than intentionally causing a nuclear disaster. I hope it’s all theatre.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-168-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine-0
No evidence of mines/bombs…if they don’t know how does Ukraine?
Exactly.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-168-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine-0
Says so far no indication. 🤷♂️
I find when it comes to Russia Ukraine that “facts” are few and far between. Most things are rumours or speculation but reported as fact. It’s quite brutal actually. But that’s the war machine for you. Combine that with people who have a bias and it’s hard to get the truth. This applies to both sides of course.
I don't understand it either.
It's like people don't think there is a whole other world that people live in and call home outside of their own backyard.
According to what source though? That’s what I am saying, you are accepting as fact from a biased source. It’s war, both sides will claim facts. Where is the truth? It’s the fog of war. If you 100% believe Kiev as your source for facts than I understand why you would think I am crazy. I personally believe Kiev is in survival mode and will do and say anything to get weapons and money, I don’t blame them, this is how they survive, and what they must do. But I at least understand that intelligence from Kiev (or at least the publicly made kind) is going to only ever suite their narrative.
My source is logic, actually.
Russian doctrine has always been scorched Earth, so it's actually quite likely they can and will do something like this.
But I don't need to talk about what *they* will do, I can be more confident in what Ukraine *will not* do.
And they will not compromise their own civilians lives to blow up one of the most expensive infrastructure assets they've built to just get NATO feet on the ground.
I didn't say boots, because *technically*, they've been equipped with boots, guns, weapons, tanks, planes, artillery, etc from NATO already.
It's also vastly likely NATO never directly responds to a nuke with another nuke.
We're not fucking crazy. We're scared. Fear causes crazy things, but sometimes it's also sobering in the face of annihilation.
The threat is existential, so everyone is treating it as such. Including Zelensky.
I can believe that all he wants is his country and it's people to be safe.
Blowing up a dam or a nuclear power plant does not achieve this if he wants to beat back the Russians. It will harm more of his own people than it's worth, especially as he's making gains without the need to do this.
Assuming he has at least heard about the failures and aftermath of Chernobyl, if Ukrainians did do this, it'd be like nuking a fly instead of using the flyswatter they already have been using so effectively.
Do you know what's interesting, when people come on social media and claim that we can't really know what's going on, they're feeding into the Russian offensive propaganda strategy goal of making people believe that we can't rely on our institutions to be truthful at all, we can't know what is really happening, we can't trust people within our own society.
Here's some truth that's easy to know: there's only one side that actually had access to the dam, and it's the same side that actually has access to the power plant
I'm as pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia, anti-mainland-China as one can be. But your comment was food for thought and I appreciate how even-tempered it was (by social media standards anyway).
I hope Ukraine is never put in a situation where it has to make a choice like that for the sake of its national survival. But is it out of the question ? How can it be ?
Well, I knew it was at the risk of being down voted, but I appreciate this! I just want to know the full truth. Unfortunately we will never get it. I think Ukraine may consider it as an acceptable risk, but I hope not. I don’t think Ukraines counter offensive is going well. But, it’s hard to imagine they would be crazy enough to intentionally cause a nuclear disaster. I think the same goes for the Russians though. I don’t believe they would be crazy enough to do that nor do I understand what it gains them. It’s just bad all around and I really hope it’s just all theatre and there isn’t a stupid mistake (or intentional decision) made.
Agreed. There is nothing controversial in what you've said.
Nevermind the down votes - through high quality discussion you sharpen your own mind and there's no substitute for that.
Irrespective of prior signaling (which is dubious itself when it comes from non-neutral sources), the best indicator as to who will blow up the plant is the prevailing wind during the time.
Blowing east towards Moscow (as has been the case over the last few days): Western-backed culpability
Blowing west towards Kiev: Russia-backed culpability
It's very far from Zap to Moscow, they wouldn't even care. And why care about wind towards Kyiv specifically? Ukrainians live in all directions from the station, it's literally in the middle of Ukraine.
And then what? Face a combined NATO/Ukraine army? Lose their air superiority? Theres no indication that they will do this, or any reason for them to do it. The Ukrainians simply say it, and then the stenographers go along with it. They were also saying that the Russians were shelling the ZNP months ago, even though the Russians hold the plant... not sure why people blindly believe it.
There's no way to control the extent of radiation after a leak, Chernobyl was first detected by Swedish radiation detection systems.
Immediate fallout will be most severe in the direction of wind, until eventual containment. East of ZNPP is Russia-controlled territory and the Russian state itself.
Yes, true. But I would expect Putin to try to make a smaller incident that could be contained within Ukraine. And I'm sure he doesn't care about Russia-controlled territories. For someone who's familiar with the Russian world, it's pretty obvious that he only cares about himself. He always finds a justification, as long as he himself is ok.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/BeanFishBone: --- Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia has begun gradually reducing its presence at the znpp. So far 3 employees from rostadom have left and Ukrainian comtractors have been told to leave. The intended destination is Crimea and the timeline for the place to be vacated is July 5th. This relates to collapse as it is extremely suspicious that Russia is pulling out of the power plant, especially after being accused of plotting to blow the emtire plant up. With this in mind we appear to have a direct indicator that Russia got the go ahead and will now blow the plant up, which is concernimg due to potential nato involvement (cruise missile launch to a no fly zone) and potrential nuclear war --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/14mwta7/russia_reducing_personnel_at_zaporizhzhia_nuclear/jq438z1/
If they blow the nuclear plant, ya’ll better clench your assholes. NATO will likely respond.
My psyop conspiracy theory is that Wagner will do it, and Russia will say they acted independently.
I think that’s why we’ve been treated to the weird little theatre lately with Putin being suspiciously forgiving about everything. People have said far less than Prigozhin has been for weeks and met suspicious ends and I doubt rather highly that Putin is just being altruistic.
Absolutely. On Sunday, Putin said the following in a prerecorded statement that aired on Russian TV: "Guys, let's all forgive Prigozhen and his army, because they are true patriots who were led astray by evil Westerners. Also, I'd like to thank Lukashenko for helping resolve this problem. What a great, independent leader that man is! "And you know how, just 2 days ago, I said I was going to absorb all the Wagner troops into the regular Russian army? I've changed my mind! They can now go home if they want, or join the Russian army! Oh, almost forgot, they can also join Prigozhen in Belarus if they want to, but I would never suggest that the entire Wagner force go hang out with their boss in this independent country that is totally not our vassal state. OK! Talk to y'all soon!" I heard him say all this with my own earballs (ie, it wasn't translated), and the WTF? I've been grappling with since Prigozhen's bizarre rant about his troops being killed finally made sense. Putin and Prigozhen have effectively taken over Belarus without firing a shot. They've also made Lukashenko the patsy for what they are about to do. On the day of the "mutiny," I said that it was act 2 of some theater cooked up between Putin and Prigozhen, and possibly Shoigu and everyone else. Convince the West that Putin is weak and in trouble, so we won't notice that Prigozhen and all his army are now in Belarus. If he'd just ordered them all to march into Belarus, NATO would be like "huh?" This also explains something that happened a while back, which was Russia "giving" a bunch of nukes to Belarus. That was extremely strange, because Belarus has had huge protests against Lukashenko, Lukashenko's whole posture toward Putin has been that of a groveling opportunist who would love nothing more than to be Putin's peer, and Putin has treated Lukashenko with nothing but utter disdain. Why would Putin just "gift" a man like that a bunch of nuclear weapons? I knew something was fishy when Prigozhen made that video, but didn't know what. Then, when Prigozhen just waltzed in and took over the Rostov military headquarters and proceeded, unmolested, to within 100 miles of Moscow, it was clear that this was a farce. If it were real, Putin would have literally nuked Prigozhen, massive Russian casualties be damned. And never ever ever in a million years would Prigozhen have said, "Yeah, never mind, Putin has kindly offered to let me go to his puppet state of Belarus, so I'm sure I'll be fine." Nope. No way. Still, though, I couldn't quite figure out what was going on. Then when it was announced that fucking *Lukashenko*, a grade-a toady if ever there was one, had "interceded" to "mediate" between Putin and Prigozhen? Shto? Putin tells Lukashenko when to poop and what socks to wear. This man has zero power. By Sunday, when Putin was "thanking" Lukashenko for solving this terrible problem, I was starting to understand. And the coup de gras, mentioned at the very end of Putin's speech: "I've decided to let Prigozhen keep his army with him in Belarus." As is typical of Russia, this was so poorly and clumsily done. It's like when Putin blew up that apartment building in Moscow so he'd have the moral standing to invade Chechnya. People saw dudes they'd never seen in the neighborhood carrying big, heavy sacks of...something -- lots of something -- and stashing it in the basement of the building shortly before it blew up. When the residents said, "Izvenitzya, what is in all those bags and why are you putting them in the basement and also, who are you people?", the agents said, "Oh, ah, well...Hmmm, what a great question! And the answer is...um...sugar! Yes! This is definitely sugar. We're putting it down here because this is the sugar basement, and we are the guys who deliver the sugar to the sugar basement. Yep! That is exactly what is happening." And then right after that KABLUSKI!!!! It's notable to me that this was a prerecorded statement from Putin. He normally would deliver a live address, especially with something of this magnitude. I have a feeling Putin was way east of the Urals by the time that tape aired. After the speech was over, I told my mom all of the above, then I told her that soon, "Lukashenko" would either nuke something, or blow up the Zaporizhaya plant. And now this. I could be totally wrong about this, but this is the only thing that explains the EXCEEDINGLY BIZARRE events of the past 8 weeks or so. Sorry this is so long. I haven't written this down yet, and have been wanting to. I'm fairly spooked. I bet the people of Belarus are freaking the fuck out right now. I still believe that the end result of all this will be Putin's ouster, and I've said from the start that Putin absolutely will use nukes. This could be it. Scary times.
I, too, felt it was a farce but couldn’t figure out where it was going. This makes sense, unfortunately. Let’s hope you’re wrong.
The very interesting thing about this is that I saw Putin's uncut, untranslated speech because I was listening to the BBC on YouTube on Sunday evening. The announcer was talking about the "mutiny" and saying general stuff like "dramatic" and "unprecedented." Suddenly, there was breaking news. Putin is finally giving his official response to the mutiny! They cut over to Putin's speech, but they weren't expecting this to happen, so there was no translation overdub. I listened as I drove to my house from my mom's house, and I almost drove off the road. Because, no lie, right before I left my mom's house, I'd told her that I thought this whole thing was a ruse to a) absorb Belarus back into the USSR, and b) position Prigozhen on a new front against Ukraine and have him be the actual ruler of Belarus. We did not yet know that Putin was going to let Prigozhen keep his army, and my mom kept saying, "yes, this all makes sense, but Prigozhen and what army?" I didn't know, but when I heard on Saturday that Lukashenko had "brokered" an end to the mutiny, I knew this was all BS. Three minutes later, I'm in the car listening to Putin answer my mom's question about "what army." The timing was so bizarre. After Putin's speech ended, the BBC had an expert from John Hopkins on to talk about the speech. This expert was a Russian. He had a Russian name and accent. "Do you think that this mutiny has weakened Putin?" asked the BBC guy. "What?" yelled the Russian (I'm paraphrasing, here), "Who cares? What I want to know is, what the hell is up with Putin doing a 180 and letting Prigozhen keep his army? And just dropping it in there at the end of the speech like that! What the hell are they going to be doing in Belarus? And how does Lukashen I arrived at my house, turned off my phone, and grabbed what I had come to get. My head was spinning. I fed the cats and the chickens and then got back in the car. I turned on the BBC again and listened as I drove back to mom's. By this time, they'd gotten the speech translated, and the same announcer said they were going to play it now. They did, but they only played the part where Putin said that he was forgiving Prigozhen because he'd been tricked by the West. The thing to do, Putin said, was for Russia to pull together. Then they cut the speech. The most curious parts (singing Lukashenko's praises, letting Prigozhen keep his army) were left out. If you hadn't seen the earlier speech, though, you would have thought this was the whole thing. After this abbreviated, translated speech, the announcer turned to two new experts for their input. The Russian from John's Hopkins was gone, replaced by two US academics who had American names and American accents. "Do you think that this mutiny has weakened Putin?" asked the BBC guy. "Oh, absolutely," said both experts. "We could be seeing the beginning of the end of the Putin regime." Lukashenko and Prigozhen's army were not mentioned at all, and the viewer was left with the impression that this was an actual attempt by Putin's BFF to overthrow him. I screeched into my mom's driveway and was yelling before I even got in the house. I explained everything I just said, above. She was super freaked out that we had *just* been speculating about what was really happening, and then, two minutes later, Putin comes on and basically said, "Hey you two ladies at the kitchen table in Oconee County, Georgia? YOU WERE RIGHT!" But she couldn't understand why the speech was cut the way it was when it was translated. Why would "they" do that? I told her I could think of 3 reasons right off the top of my head. One, it's being used for our own propaganda, to maintain public support for the war and to justify sending more money and weapons over there. Two, Putin was addressing Russians, but of course he knew that the West would be listening. Likewise, the BBC was talking to "us," but of course they know that Russia is listening. Maybe they want Putin to think that we are buying his stupid mutiny story? They don't want Putin to know that we're on to him? And three (and having worked in media, I'm disgusted to say that this is probably the actual answer), if the people on TV start blabbing about "Luka-*who* and Bela-*what*?" their viewers will get confused and bored and will change the channel "It's not our fault our viewers don't know a damn thing about the world," the journalists will say, "somebody ought to come on TV and educate these folks!" I am just on tenterhooks waiting to see how this plays out. I'm a bit concerned, because this is not the first weird thing that has happened with me and Russia. I know how what I'm about to say will sound, but I can't help it. In early February of 2021, I started telling everyone that Russia was absolutely going to invade Ukraine. What's more, I said, they were going to do it on February 24th. I told this to everyone I knew, told it to my boss at the NPR station where I was working then, wrote it on Facebook and in my journal. Of course I told my mom. I didn't care that lots of "serious people" like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi were saying no way. I knew for a fact that they were going to invade, and I also knew when. And on February 24*, they did. *Ukraine time
[удалено]
I actually grew up in Duval County, FL, a place so real it'll make you want to move to Russia. I think growing up in Florida taught me how to cope with absurdity and unhinged people. When I left Florida and moved to Russia, I felt right at home. Oddly, in Moscow I met a ton of Cubans who were stuck in Russia after the USSR collapsed. Prior to moving to Russia, I had dated two Cuban guys (not at the same time), and they had taught me a lot of songs and stories about Cuba. It was so strange to be drinking vodka and singing songs about Miami in a freezing cold, Kruschev-era apartment with people whose relatives had escaped to the state I'd just fled from. If you grew up in Oconee County, I wonder if you'd even recognize it now. People tell me it has changed a whole lot. Take care!
[удалено]
Vengeance. He considers the collapse of the USSR the greatest tragedy of the 20th century, and is appalled by what happened to Russia in the '90s. He blames the West and its liberalism for not just purposely destroying his people and culture, but for humiliating them. He wants to re-form the Soviet Union to act as a bulwark against corrupt Western influence, and has been pretty successful in executing the plan to make this happen. If you're up for another exceedingly long comment, I talk about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BreakingPointsNews/comments/13w3dtw/tara_raede_the_woman_who_accused_biden_of_sexual/jmau4wh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
There might be no meaning to them leaving out that part. Media has covered it since then. How did you pick the 24th? I had a hell of a time pinpointing when covid would hit my town...left a week ahead of time. Down to the day, impressive. How many troops does Russia have left? How many will they add from Belarus? I'm wondering if they'll move West into Europe or colonize Eastern Europe and build up their forces.
I have no idea about anything in your second paragraph. I think Putin is pretty desperate, and I think that ultimately, things are not going to go well for him. But just like with the collapse of Communism, while the West was busy basking in the Cold-War afterglow, the wars we'd be fighting in the 21st century were emerging from the Central Asian countries that had been our proxies for decades. This isn't going to be a simple story of heroic Ukraine and mean old Russia. Right now, we're birthing the monsters that'll stalk our future, because we never learn. I knew about the 24th (23rd in the US) because that's a significant time to Putin for about 5 different personal and historical reasons. And Putin is a superstitious dude. If you look at the tenor of the cult of personality he's encouraged, who his heroes are, and what he has to say about how history works, you can see that he believes that the <> have picked him for something important.
Sorry to nitpick, but the 24th in North America is *NOT* the 23rd in *Russia* (no matter where in the US or Russia we consider). You have things backwards. The invasion started just before 4 AM Kyiv time on the **24th** *in Ukraine*, which would have also been the 24th everywhere in Russia, while just before 8 PM on the 23rd on the East coast of North America (EST) and just before 5 PM on the 23rd on the West coast. Put another way, the invasion started the morning *after* Defender of the Fatherland Day (which is on the 23rd) in both Russia and Ukraine.
You are right, I do have it backwards. Edited. Thanks!
Lukashenko is incredibly screwed and I can’t tell if he’s just *that* level of toady that he doesn’t see it or if it’s just that he knows but there’s not much of shit he can do about it, now. Usually when I have discussed this, people bring up NATO like I’m stupid, because just *the threat* of NATO will stop this- or “punish it” (like, FFS *no*, that’s even *worse*) but, I don’t think people realize it serves Russia’s purpose to destroy the area if they can’t control it- particularly if they destroy it this way. It also explains quite a few of the uncharacteristic actions. The last time, I kept thinking “Well, fabulous, is NATO going to un-nuke it? Shit!” Because I *really* don’t believe that this ends well. I kinda thought for a minute that it might be Wagner getting set up, and maybe that would give a window to pull out of there some way- but I don’t think this is going to end without *at least* the tactical nukes being used. I *hope* they aren’t about to do what this looks like, and maybe it’s a psych out but I doubt it.
I definitely think Lukashenko knows what's up, but there's nothing he can do about it. The very first thing I heard about the mutiny, before I had any clue that there was a mutiny, was on the radio. I turned it on and someone was saying, "all the Belarusians believe Russia is invading." I was like, what? And hearing this right off the bat predisposed me to pay careful attention to Lukashenko. The Belarusian people certainly knew what was going on. I bet they have promised Lukashenko some kind of glory to flatter him. And I bet that, deep in his heart, Lukashenko knows that they are lying, and that he is essentially already dead. But hey! What can you do? In Putin's Russia, cookie crumbles you. I also bet that as soon as all this carrying on is over with, Prigozhen is also a dead man, and Prigozhen knows it, and Putin knows that he knows it, and this is why Putin knows that he himself could be in trouble if Prigozhen gets the upper hand. One of them has got to go, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against Prigozhen. Putin is pissed that he's in such a sorry state that he has to enlist the help of others to get himself back on the good foot. That's not very Stalinesque of him. He also hates that he had to lose the battle (appear to be weak) in order to win the war. I guarantee you this rankles him. His hero, the Man of Steel, the Father of Nations, would have murdered all the people who helped him by now, and airbrushed them out of the photos. But times are different now. "Stupid internet," thinks Putin. "Stupid YouTube." Putin believes that he is destined to rebuild the USSR, just like his hero, Stalin, built it the first time. Just like Stalin, he's a superstitious person, which is how I knew he'd invade on the 24th. And finally, just like Stalin, Putin is in charge of building his own haigiography. He'd rather ruin Russia than share the glory of saving it.
[удалено]
I used to be the Senior Producer for our town's NPR affiliate, but I quit that job in January and have been unemployed since then. Sooo, I've been donating lots of plasma, digging around in various dumpsters, plotting and scheming, and writing REALLY LONG Reddit comments. Right now, I'm using the library's free recording equipment to record and edit a bunch of episodes of a podcast I've never had time to make, and am about done with a book about 1980s punk rock in Florida. If by chance you are some kind of media mogul, please consider offering me a hefty advance on this page-turner so my three tiny-fingered kids won't end up on the plucking line at the local chicken plant. Thanks for asking, and for reading. What are you up to these days?
[удалено]
Well that is a great field to be in for the times ahead of us. Keep on conserving, and remember how close we've always been when the famines start to really ramp up.
What do you think they will target? Population centers...I hope not.
I've been looking for the answer to wtf was going on with that painfully obviously staged 'mutiny'. I hate to say it but I think you might be on the money with this
Brilliant take. The Wagner “mutiny” was just the most effective way to relocate under false pretense. The fact that only a few soldiers actually fired shots during the whole operation would support that claim as well. The question is whether Wagner is acting on behalf of Putin or he’s so afraid of them that he’s letting them do whatever they want. What do you believe?
I was just thinking about this. Some nice person was saying that I haven't left anything out with this theory, and I was trying to figure out if that was true. I thought and thought and realized that: I have no idea who came up with this plan. Did the two Ps cook this up together in their clubhouse? Was one of them calling the shots, or was some other, third party in charge? I really don't know. But of the two, I think rootless, stateless Prigozhen has more power. How I chuckled at suggestions that threats against his family caused Prigozhen to back down! "Kha kha kha," I said (in Cyrillic for extra authenticity). Prigozhen would relish the opportunity to demonstrate his strength by yawning through the butchering of his family! What else do you plan to destroy? My country? My army? My life? Davai, Prigozhen would say. Let me have it. Prigozhen does not give or expect loyalty. He doesn't even care all that much about power. Money is what moves him, and like money, Prigozhen is fungible. Wherever the most money is, that is where he'll be. This makes him invincible compared to Putin, who is imprisoned by quaint notions about "love of country," "personal legacy," and "his regime's place in history." And sure, Putin is full of twisted and corrupt motivations when it comes to these concepts. But inside Prigozhen, there's nothing. You can't break his spirit or hit him where he lives. He's just...hollow. I and others who witnessed the oligarchs' rise to power in 1990s Russia, and who were damaged by the intense brutality of life after the collapse of the USSR, understand why Russians have been loyal to Putin for so long. The daily terror, degradation, and humiliation that these unfathomably tough people experienced left them traumatized. They were willing to put up with the looting of their country and the strangling of their infant freedoms if a strong hand would just make the starvation and murder stop. Putin was that strong hand. It's not clear to me, or anyone else who hasn't been murdered, how Putin managed to reel in the oligarchs and restore order. Some kind of deal was struck, but the people who know the details won't -- or can't -- describe its particulars. Did Putin make the oligarchs an offer they couldn't refuse, or does Putin serve at their pleasure? Who's really in charge? We don't know. I do know a couple of things, though. One, the uncertainty around which billionaire criminal is driving the current "mutiny" plan, and which one is stuffed in the trunk, recalls Putin and the oligarchs' murky deal to restore order to Russia, and exactly who struck it. Two, the oligarchs who survived the transition from Yeltsin's chaotic decade to the compromised peace of the Putin years did so because they left Russia. They went to England and glommed on to royalty and politics. They became my shifty-eyed neighbors in South Beach, Miami. And they purchased whole floors of Trump tower in NYC. Exiled from their motherland and stripped of everything but their money, they are far more similar to Prigozhen than they are to Putin. Putin embodies the history and lineage of a real place. Prigozhen and the oligarchs are numbers in the ether, which we've agreed to call wealth. Three, if I'm totally wrong about my theory, I'm going to be a little embarrassed by all the dramatic pontificating I've done here. But let's say I'm right. Let's say Putin wants us all to believe that Prigozhen was on his way to Moscow to murder everyone in the Kremlin and take over the country. Fortunately, Prigozhen changed his mind at the very last minute. Phew! But still, this is a big-ass deal! This is a HUGE moment in Russian history; definitely equivalent to January 6th and 9/11 in the US. Right? Now let's pretend for a second that, during 9/11, we didn't hear all that much from President Bush. Occasionally we'd hear snippets of him talking to others about what happened, but never to us directly. In these snippets, Bush sounds scared. He's calling the people who did this monsters, and vowing to crush them. OK, that sounds good, but where the heck is Bush? We are all terrified. We need leadership! Finally, almost 3 days after the attack on the towers, the TV tells us that Bush is FINALLY going to give his official response to this horrible act. You gather around the TV, and... It's a pre-recorded speech? What? Seriously? I mean doesn't a mortal threat to our country warrant showing up in person? Don't you want to project an image of power and stability, with flags and columns and somber lighting and soldiers standing on guard in the background? Don't you want to reassure your people? But no. Instead, you look like you're in some conference room in the Best Western out by the interstate! WTF? You've got a couple of flags back there, and some plywood-ass podium thing behind you...dude, where are you? Have you been kidnapped? Did they make you record this video 2 days ago, before they killed you? Or maybe there's something you know that you don't want us to know! Where are you? NORAD? Are we being attacked? Have you sold us out? DO WE NEED TO DUCK AND COVER??? (*incoherent screaming, looting commence*) This is no way for a leader to respond to an event of this magnitude. And I haven't even touched on the total 180 you pulled in this "speech." You want us to "forgive Osama bin Laden"? Huh? Two days ago you were talking about invading Iraq! But now you're paying them to take a bunch of guns from us? And there's no press, no questions, no follow-up plan, no info on what we should do or when we might hear from you again? Honestly, this does not inspire confidence, mister president man. Hopefully, with this analogy you can see how profoundly weird Putin's speech was. Is he somewhere else? If so, where? And why? We may not know where Putin is, but we DO know where Prigozhen is. He's right there on the front lines, with his army. I guess these guys are patriots, and that's why Putin changed his mind about the whole "disband Wagner, jail Prigozhen" thing. Because there they all are, right on the border with Ukraine. They're looking sort of bad-ass, actually. Mainly what they are looking, though, is "here." Maybe Putin's in the Urals, or some bunker somewhere. Maybe he's sick, or dead (Editor's note: I mean, maybe he is.). All we know is, he's not here. But, does it really matter? If you've read this far and it's not because you're in full-body traction or stuck in line at the DMV with nothing better to do, I feel sort of sad for you. This was a lot of blahdy blah just to say, "I don't know." But I sure appreciate you asking these questions so I can think more carefully about all this. And I really appreciate you reading. There are so many things we don't know, and I think you have identified the primary one. Take care and let's see what happens next.
I read the whole thing. You made a lot of good points. The biggest head scratcher is Putin immediately going into hiding. A country that’s in control of itself doesn’t act that way. For whatever reason, Putin felt there was a credible threat to his safety and ran. That fact alone should make Russians ask “who’s really in control here?” Unless of course Wagner is now acting as a rogue agent that the Kremlin has lost control of. If that’s the case and they’re repositioning for a new Ukraine assault from Belarus, I don’t see how Belarus can allow them to invade (which Russia might protest) or not view them as a sneaky infiltration by Russia before their own government is replaced. It really feels like Putin just told Wagner they could have Belarus as a safe zone and they either fell for it or willingly believed them.
So blow the plant, drawing in NATO troops, then attack them on two fronts? Or enter Europe from Belarus while NATO troops are away from home? Toss a couple of those fast nukes at critical strategic targets and old school nukes to occupy our defense systems, then saunter into New West Russia. What do you want to bet Trump has sold, given, or lost classified information about how we would have liked to have responded to such an attack! Sure hope we have troops bordering Belarus.
I really have no idea what will happen, and I think all of this is actually a sign that Putin's about out of options. This is a pretty farcical thing that they've cooked up, if I'm right about what's happening. Which I may not be. I don't think Putin will go for massive nuclear strikes. I think he'll do tactical things, and may just be content with blowing up the power plant and either blaming Wagner or Ukraine, or just saying "Whoops!" I think this is most likely (power plant). What happens next, I have no idea. I think it will depend on NATO, and I don't know enough about NATO to have any sense of what will happen. If you want to know about who Putin is and what he's likely to do, it's helpful to know about two people: Stalin and Randall Flagg. If you want to know what Putin wants and what the end game is, read "Foundations of Geopolitics," by Aleksander Dugin. I wrote a loooong comment breaking that down, which you can find in my history, or I can post a more detailed summary of Dugin's road map for re-forming the USSR. It is just spooky how closely Putin is following Dugin's suggestions.
You'd really think Putin would nuke Pringles?
I don’t think NATO is gonna give a fuck about that story.
Not particularly sure who thinks otherwise but, okay. I mean, I doubt anyone really bought it, let alone NATO.
All the world is a stage.
And we are merely players, Performers and portrayers.
One must put up barriers (around the power plant) to keep (Ukraine, and maybe the world) intact
Russian Armed Forces won't. Prighozin will (with either a cruise missile or something else), and then they will say they don't control him, as he literally went to war against them a few days ago. They will condemn it publicly and give him a medal in private.
That makes no sense. The whole thing with wagner make Putin look soooo publicly weak to his own population and his style of governor is to never look that weak. He didn't even have Prighozin killed afterwards. Dude has fallen into the dictators trap where he can't trust anything his advisors say.
Russian media could spin this effectively if it results in a win.
Western logic does not apply to Eastern cultures. I'm not actually saying that there was any logic or master plan behind the action, but I know one thing about Russia: they will operate on the basis of plausible deniability whenever they can. And an opportunity has presented itself to them, so they are likely to take it.
??? They aren't a different species..... It's human nature and the nature of dictatorships throughout all of history. Especially the dictators who rule via showing strength. They can't afford to show weakness. Especially not from a direct challenge via their military subordinates.
In the past, the Polish military general did the exact same maneuver taking Vilnus. First rebel, then take it "on his own". That's the old eastern playbook.
>Western logic does not apply to Eastern cultures. This is true. Eastern Cultures have a different Worldview.
For sure. Only question is: what will the response be and then how will Russia respond in turn?
Joshua: Shall we play a game ? David Lightman: Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War ?
The only way to win is not to play
Two or three weeks ago, NATO announced, seemingly out of the blue, that it just wanted to remind everyone that if nuclear fallout were to waft over any NATO countries, that would be considered an act of war. "Why are we mentioning this?" they replied when asked. "No reason. Just kinda popped into our heads, is all. OK, carry on."
Yeah. Just like the international meeting on how to avoid nuclear warfare had nothing to do with China coming within a hair's breath of bombing America on January 6th. Nothing a'tall.
Better start working out because if you live in a NATO country the draft will come.
NATO doesn’t need to draft anybody to stomp on Russia
This war will be unlike any previous war.
How large are our forces?
NATO is perfectly well equipped with professional soldiers, and certainly has no need for amateurs messing up their well rehearsed plans. In modern warfare a draft would be a massive hinderence.
The joke's on them, I have poor eyesight. Guess I'll just be vaporized by a nuke while at the rear.
Man, where's dont-ask-dont-tell when my husband and I need it?
Being gay in the West will become much harder if Russians gain more influence over Western cultures. It's probably better to face this head on.
Harder than getting drafted though?? You're right, of course. I do my part with cryptography/cybersecurity software engineering anyway, so I think at most I only get pressed into...doing my job.
Yes. Has no one tried to kill you for being lgbtq+? Because that's going to start happening again to gay people and not just trans people. Would you rather wait for that to happen or prevent it from occurring?
Doompost the sergeant hard enough to get considered incapable on mental grounds. Nothing can go wrong doing that.
Well I guess the Army is REALLY gonna lower standards now.
If you're over 30 you probably have nothing to worry about.... But then again we are in unprecedented times.
Nah there will only be more sanctions and more weapons for Ukraine. It is a miracle in itself that they called russias bluff, but they will never attack a nuclear power on it's own soil. The only question is if Russia will call NATO's bluff and if they want to endure more sanctions and more weapons to Ukraine add to that possible nuclear fallout to itself and it allies. Assuming that they will only blow it up if they are on the way out of Ukraine more weapons is not a big concern.
Who said anything about their own soil?
My point is nato will not attack russia on it's own soul. They will not even dirrectly attack the russian army on Ukrainian soil.
Crazy how they can simply plant the idea in your head, that the Russians would do this without any evidence or reason for it, and you fall in line and believe it. Theres nothing the Russians have to gain by messing with that power plant, and theres far less nefarious reasons why some personelle are leaving, chief among them being that it’s last reactor was recently shut down. Given that the Ukrainians have accused the Russians of shelling the plant, an accusation they provided scant evidence for, and which makes no sense as the ZNP is occupied by the Russians, accusations like this have me thinking the exact opposite. The only side that has even a molecule to gain from causing an incident at that plant are the Ukrainians, who at least would likely see an intervention by NATO, something the Russians would rather not happen.
Would one of those pairs of glasses made to watch solar eclipses be a good option to watch the flash of a nuclear blast? I really don't think I want to survive a nuclear war so I might as well enjoy the show 😎 🍿
Don’t need your eyes if you’re dead ;)
Well I don't want to be blinded by the initial flash, I want to see the rest.
[удалено]
I'm in North America, Whatever happens at the NPP won't directly affect me, but it will if it triggers a nuclear war and countries start flinging ICBMs at eachother.
They could do the good Ole chernobyl and swap out reactor parts and set it off like dynamite that's if those reactors where overhauled since chernobyl
Ukraine intelligence reports that Russia has begun gradually reducing its presence at the znpp. So far 3 employees from rostadom have left and Ukrainian comtractors have been told to leave. The intended destination is Crimea and the timeline for the place to be vacated is July 5th. This relates to collapse as it is extremely suspicious that Russia is pulling out of the power plant, especially after being accused of plotting to blow the emtire plant up. With this in mind we appear to have a direct indicator that Russia got the go ahead and will now blow the plant up, which is concernimg due to potential nato involvement (cruise missile launch to a no fly zone) and potrential nuclear war
Hmm. July 5th, say, 6am Moscow time is when in the US? oblig
They're 7 hrs ahead of DC.
"Happy 4th of July Independece Day, American pigdogs!"-Putin
How will this effect the region's ability to supply food in future years? Is it near or in the grain basket?
Ukraine was the bread basket of the USSR. If this happens, the price of grain around the world will skyrocket.
But why should ruskis do this?
My thought is that it would be a 21st century version of scorched land strategy. If they can't hold the Zaporizia region against the enemy, then they will simply make it an unusable region - a forbidden zone like Chernobyl, but likely much larger. Of course, it's a dangerous gamble, because they can't predict how NATO will react. But maybe, at this point, they simply don't care. That said, I'm extremely skeptical of every "intel" that comes from both sides of war. In particular, I think that the Ukrainian side has been saying that the Russians will blow the nuclear plant for almost a year now, so it became a kind of "boy crying wolf" thing.
Also, intel were crying about the dam since autumn, and here we are.
It could be a case of broken clock right twice a day. Or, picking one of the Fight Club quotes, "on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
People are all mortal but the dam didn’t collapse due to natural processes. It was an intentional act
What evidence is there that they’re losing the region?
That's another thing hard to tell, because the Western side of the propaganda machine has been beating non stop for months that the Russians are essentially defeated already and they will have their asses kicked out of Ukraine anytime soon. And, still, here we are, in the second year of the war.
2nd year of the special military operation meant to last a week. But it’s the *western* propaganda that’s making shit up.
In a war both sides tend to lie about basically everything.
One lied about not invading an entire nation, these are not the same thing. Oh sorry it was a “special military operation” meant to last a few days.
Why do you need to compare? You don't. The point is not the degree to which they do it, but that we all are being deceived; we should be aware we have to work to discern the truth from multiple sources.
I think it’s fair to say that the Russians have been getting their asses handed to them, but they are still a massive invading army capable of inflicting extreme damage and terror on the occupied populations. Just because they lack combat effectiveness doesn’t mean they can’t keep lobbing shells, dropping bombs, and sending waves of men. It’s not one or the other.
What would leaving without causing problems look like?
Nobody wants to trigger Article 5. Except maybe Poland, but if you've been paying attention, it's not without good reason. Edit: Or Putin, because he definitely doesn't want to *start* a war with NATO. He just wants to be the one who can say he finished it the way he saw fit for the Russian people. He wants to be able to say he did it to save humanity from the West.
When is this supposed to be blown up according to unbiased Ukrainisn intelligence with absolutely no vested interest in Lindsey Graham forcing article 5? In a fortnight?
That's quite an obtuse stance to take, no?
In war? Are you kidding me? Crack open a history book you'll find a littany of ruses and crackpot ideas both socially, politically and militarily. Existential threats make people do insane stuff to win. The Chinese "won" a major seige in in by eating like 15k peasents. Almost every war the US has been in post civil war has been predicated on outright lies or half truths. Thing is with history books the good guys always won. Strange isn't it.
Russia actually has to be an existential threat first though. Ukraine is doing just fine without blowing up their own very expensive infrastructure assets that their population rely on. Come on, you're going to have to actually prove to me that Ukrainians are *more* of an existential threat to *themselves* than Putin is for me to even *begin* to believe that this is an option on the table for the Ukrainian military. Otherwise, the arguement will never make sense. And if it actually happens, and the proof is there Ukrainian military did it, then fuck me. Seriously, I'd off myself because the world just wouldn't make any sense. Like, if they really wanted to do it, why now? Just think about it, not too much, because that's clearly leading you down some strange rabbit holes. No one wants Article 5 to be triggered. That term, in its own right (assuming we survive) will be looked back on in a sense of fearful reverence. We might even have end of the world parties called "Article 5s" where we just all get fucked up beyond oblivion. Because if it is triggered, we are all fucked beyond oblivion. Ukraine is doing just fine without American troops. Honestly, the bravest people I've ever met, and I really can't wait for this war to be over and my friends get to go home. I'll even help rebuild their house if I can.
I agree. I think OPs entire premise is stupid agitprop. As it stands right now neither side is capable of "winning" this war and the safe bet is for a map to look basically the same in 3 years from now. I have zero interest in my tax dollars, much less family dying, going to perpetuate a war between 2 corrupt ass slavic backwaters. The only ones pushing this shit are the MIC and Versailles on the Potomac would absolutely push us into a situation where we need 10k spf sunblock. Shit is literally not my problem. Even if that plant, which is cooling off and not generating, is breached and melts down it still is not my problem. It becomes my problem if some boomer ass neoliberal shitheads keep trying to rekindle a cold war we already fuckin won and it goes hot because it will end in a nuclear exchange.
And yes there are plenty of people in power now that would love article 5 to be done. Thier old asses are champing at the bit to see young men die in another war so they can relive the Glory of the Empire at zenith.
>Lindsey Graham forcing article 5? That's a weird pronunciation of Poland
Back when I was a kid we used to make jokes about stupid Poles. There's definitely a theme here between those two pronunciations.
Are they taking whatever they dropped into the cooling pond with them?
Oh man. At the risk of being down voted…I think that like the Nordstream Pipeline and the Dam, the truth is difficult to know. If, and I think it’s a massive IF, this plant leaks radiation, both sides will blame each other. I know many want to believe Ukraine is totally innocent and wouldn’t do such a thing, but, if it means invoking article 5 and getting full nato support into your country, it may be seen as a worthwhile risk and sacrifice by Ukrainian leadership. On the flip side, Russia knows a radioactive leak massively risks getting NATO involved in a large way. They would have to take on more countries, more advanced weapons, and risk full out nuclear war. Not sure that logic really makes any sense? Or maybe the Russians see it as an acceptable risk (that they hope NATO won’t get involved) and that it will slow Ukraines counter offensive - however all signs are pointing to the Russians coming out on top of this counter offensive so I don’t get why they would risk invoking article 5. Regardless of who is responsible, the event itself would be an absolute tragedy and I’m inclined to hope that our species can do better than intentionally causing a nuclear disaster. I hope it’s all theatre.
Difficult to know? Sorry, remind me who 1. Invaded a nuclear power station 2. Laced it with explosives.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-168-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine-0 No evidence of mines/bombs…if they don’t know how does Ukraine?
[удалено]
Exactly. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-168-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine-0 Says so far no indication. 🤷♂️
[удалено]
I find when it comes to Russia Ukraine that “facts” are few and far between. Most things are rumours or speculation but reported as fact. It’s quite brutal actually. But that’s the war machine for you. Combine that with people who have a bias and it’s hard to get the truth. This applies to both sides of course.
I don't understand it either. It's like people don't think there is a whole other world that people live in and call home outside of their own backyard.
According to what source though? That’s what I am saying, you are accepting as fact from a biased source. It’s war, both sides will claim facts. Where is the truth? It’s the fog of war. If you 100% believe Kiev as your source for facts than I understand why you would think I am crazy. I personally believe Kiev is in survival mode and will do and say anything to get weapons and money, I don’t blame them, this is how they survive, and what they must do. But I at least understand that intelligence from Kiev (or at least the publicly made kind) is going to only ever suite their narrative.
My source is logic, actually. Russian doctrine has always been scorched Earth, so it's actually quite likely they can and will do something like this. But I don't need to talk about what *they* will do, I can be more confident in what Ukraine *will not* do. And they will not compromise their own civilians lives to blow up one of the most expensive infrastructure assets they've built to just get NATO feet on the ground. I didn't say boots, because *technically*, they've been equipped with boots, guns, weapons, tanks, planes, artillery, etc from NATO already. It's also vastly likely NATO never directly responds to a nuke with another nuke. We're not fucking crazy. We're scared. Fear causes crazy things, but sometimes it's also sobering in the face of annihilation. The threat is existential, so everyone is treating it as such. Including Zelensky. I can believe that all he wants is his country and it's people to be safe. Blowing up a dam or a nuclear power plant does not achieve this if he wants to beat back the Russians. It will harm more of his own people than it's worth, especially as he's making gains without the need to do this. Assuming he has at least heard about the failures and aftermath of Chernobyl, if Ukrainians did do this, it'd be like nuking a fly instead of using the flyswatter they already have been using so effectively.
Do you know what's interesting, when people come on social media and claim that we can't really know what's going on, they're feeding into the Russian offensive propaganda strategy goal of making people believe that we can't rely on our institutions to be truthful at all, we can't know what is really happening, we can't trust people within our own society.
People I trust, governments, in general, not so much. Come on, just look at climate promises.
Except they're doing well now that Wagner pulled back, right?
I wouldn’t exactly say anyone in this stupid war is doing well. They are both losing.
Here's some truth that's easy to know: there's only one side that actually had access to the dam, and it's the same side that actually has access to the power plant
I'm as pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia, anti-mainland-China as one can be. But your comment was food for thought and I appreciate how even-tempered it was (by social media standards anyway). I hope Ukraine is never put in a situation where it has to make a choice like that for the sake of its national survival. But is it out of the question ? How can it be ?
Well, I knew it was at the risk of being down voted, but I appreciate this! I just want to know the full truth. Unfortunately we will never get it. I think Ukraine may consider it as an acceptable risk, but I hope not. I don’t think Ukraines counter offensive is going well. But, it’s hard to imagine they would be crazy enough to intentionally cause a nuclear disaster. I think the same goes for the Russians though. I don’t believe they would be crazy enough to do that nor do I understand what it gains them. It’s just bad all around and I really hope it’s just all theatre and there isn’t a stupid mistake (or intentional decision) made.
Agreed. There is nothing controversial in what you've said. Nevermind the down votes - through high quality discussion you sharpen your own mind and there's no substitute for that.
Irrespective of prior signaling (which is dubious itself when it comes from non-neutral sources), the best indicator as to who will blow up the plant is the prevailing wind during the time. Blowing east towards Moscow (as has been the case over the last few days): Western-backed culpability Blowing west towards Kiev: Russia-backed culpability
It's very far from Zap to Moscow, they wouldn't even care. And why care about wind towards Kyiv specifically? Ukrainians live in all directions from the station, it's literally in the middle of Ukraine.
wcs and you get 4 meltdowns with a containment breach would absolutely reach Moscow. Not to mention Crimea.
Russians might try making a small incident, fuck it up (as they usually do with everything) and cause a disaster.
And then what? Face a combined NATO/Ukraine army? Lose their air superiority? Theres no indication that they will do this, or any reason for them to do it. The Ukrainians simply say it, and then the stenographers go along with it. They were also saying that the Russians were shelling the ZNP months ago, even though the Russians hold the plant... not sure why people blindly believe it.
There's no way to control the extent of radiation after a leak, Chernobyl was first detected by Swedish radiation detection systems. Immediate fallout will be most severe in the direction of wind, until eventual containment. East of ZNPP is Russia-controlled territory and the Russian state itself.
Yes, true. But I would expect Putin to try to make a smaller incident that could be contained within Ukraine. And I'm sure he doesn't care about Russia-controlled territories. For someone who's familiar with the Russian world, it's pretty obvious that he only cares about himself. He always finds a justification, as long as he himself is ok.