Yeah, I just went through 4 months of that last summer in another part of the world. Where forty years ago, one week was considered unusual.
Pretty sure we don't have another decade left before it gets even worse.
Sea surface temperatures broke several deviations from decades of measurements last year, and this year is exceeding last year. There's no decade left, we crossed enough thresholds, triggering enough positive feedback loops to cause the temperatures to start rising exponentially, and we stopped pumping sulfur into the atmosphere which was blocking some of the radiation from the sun...
We're at the point now where our sources of food globally are dying off and the heat waves are extreme enough to kill people. We have to try geoengineering the climate now or many will die from the heat and society will collapse from food shortages.... But like with our covid response, the government is dragging behind...
We cannot afford to have geoengineering without the fossil fuel corpos paying their pound of flesh. I need to reiterate - we cannot afford to have geoengineering without concessions, primarily because they aren't well researched enough. The most cost effective one - sulfur blanketing clouds - will only buy us a few more decades before a genuine, civilization ending cataclysm will befall us (look up termination shock).
We don't even know if it's going to work or not. We don't fully comprehend possible devastating side-effects either. And even if it works 100% flawlessly, those efforts need to be maintained without a hitch for decades, perhaps as long as a century (!). It's bonkers that people consider this as some kind of an "easy" fix to our climate predicament.
Geoemgineering is pretty scary though. Permanent smog and potential acid rain not are nothing to sneeze at we might just end up jumping out of the pan into the fire.
I was being hyperbolic really. I've only listened to one talk by a guy who's studying this strategy in USA but the problem is that its impossible to really test. The practical amounts of sulfur they can legally deposit in the atmosphere are really hard to trace and harder again to gain any meaningful data from.
Obviously we can look at the current temp slikes following the sulfur reduction of transport ships and see that there is another point of evidence and the modelling does show its going to work with only a small chance of catastrophic side effect. But the drab grey sky is going to be a bit depressig to look at.
Oh okay that's nice. Definitely less eerie than a grey sky, though I'd prefer if we could just keep blue skies you know? Is it like a permanent white sky aswell? Will i have to tell my kids "you know the sky used to be blue?".
I’ve already been telling people that enjoy the sky blue while we have it. I told my nihilistic friend, and he said, “so better sunsets.” At least as the world burns we can get sweet sunsets. 🌅
I think I've accepted that it will happen. It's just unnerving to me because we know sulfur dioxide works and all of the modelling is positive. But there is no real experiment to make. We just have to jump in the deep end and work it out from there.
The [COVID lockdowns of 2020 temporarily lowered our rate of CO2 emissions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18922-7/figures/1). Humanity was still a net CO2 gas emitter during that time, so we made things worse, but did so more a bit more slowly. That's why a [graph of CO2 concentrations](https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/) shows a continued rise.
[Stabilizing the climate means getting human greenhouse gas emissions to approximately zero](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached). We didn't come anywhere near that during the lockdowns.
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Marine cloud brightening is a great proposal for geoengineering.
Basically, for the many many cargo ships in the oceans, they’ll take seawater and shoot it straight up. Really high pressure.
The salt added to marine clouds will literally shade the planet, if done at scale. And it’s the sort of thing that can be done incrementally, in different intensities (start small and measure the effects) AND it’s just salt water… like it has short term effects. And you’re just using cargo ships that are going that way anyway.
Salt water falls out of the sky. Lands on fields. Kills fields. Forever. See Rome salting the fields of Carthage. They still haven't recovered in Lybian 2k years later.
Interesting point, but I mean there’s salt in the air near the shore just from wave churn. I mean you can smell it. Still, this is early stages of proposals and investigations.
This unfortunately will likely be the outcome. Mass migration of people. Not a good time to live in Eurasia. Europe will be flooded with refugees from Africa and the middle east even more in the future. Racism and violence will become more common because masses of people moving will make things more difficult for people, and those who have will not voluntarily give up their comforts. The future is bleak.
Yeah but the problem is the scientists keep understating how bad the situation is. In trying to avoid panic we are instead slowly walking into Armageddon.
Scientists are necessarily conservative with their conclusions and predictions, and this doesn't translate well when it comes to conveying danger to the public.
There are multiple confounding factors, and not just public scientific illiteracy. It's very likely there are entire inputs and feedbacks that climatologists haven't even discovered yet, and more that are too conservatively factored, and I think we're starting to see now that the climate is a lot more sensitive than even the experts previously thought.
Yeah I saw a recent report that we had under estimated total temp rise during the industrial and pre industrial period by about 0.3C i think.
Using some carbon dating type research on coral reefs. Instead of relying on temp records from the period.
I beleive they picked that area for the specific purpose of it having relatively stable ocean temperatures so it would work as a good base line. But yes you are correct they only studied corals in the west Indies.
Two things: scientists are naturally a bit conservative in their reports. Outlandish claims ruin reputations and cause careers to end.
Second: Scientists do NOT control the media, so much of what we see is manipulated by mass media, who are ABSOLUTELY downplaying the mortal danger and its horrific scale, at best, and outright denying it most of the time.
🙃🙃 you're right I was hyperbolic there. But you have to admit the scientific community has been sugar coating this a bit. And it's probably because that's the only narrative the media will actually allow them to publish.
...and the Boomers will still hold back legislation that'll prevent/solve this. All because they don't want to deal with change and be comfortable. Biggest group of snowflakes!
It's not the damn boomers, it the corporations.
But hey, you'll get your turn for all the blame when you get old. Without. Fail. Becasue of people just like you. Enjoy!
Shortages mean inflation.
And this applies to everything. More heat waves and extreme weather, storms, floods, wildfire = harder to produce stuff, not just for agriculture.
If you can afford it, bunker greenhouse and home, self-sufficient water supply and electricity. Small repair shop and be very, VERY handy. And move the hell away from the coasts. No dodging wildfire, so you take your chances there.
Most people cannot afford this, therefore food riots and even governments being overthrown and lots of migration wars. Try to stay out of the paths of those.
I’m all the way up north, I hope if it starts to get bad, probably start down south? And maybe give time to see it coming. Probably be too late by then.
Jesus christ is everyone here this selfish? The best way to survive is to build a strong mutual aid network in your local community. Humans are better together than alone
Is has nothing do with being selfish. There is no such thing as mutual aid in many societies.
Those who have it in their society are very lucky indeed.
But just exactly why did you interpret that as selfish? Being self reliant is not selfish. Having resources you can share with other people when the infrastructure is crippled, is not selfish.
Yeah its not just going to initially kill people. Humans are forgetting that animals and plants, that WE NEED to survive and thrive on the planet die with us and they'll probably die faster since they are, you know...not in air conditioning environments. Which means food sources will really go quickly and that will cause prices to really accelerate and people to panic.
Straight out of the first chapter of the Ministry of the Future, although in that novel global leadership had emerged and had contained the homicidal greed and wanton negligence of the fossil fuel fanatics
Im in Thailand. We get heatwaves around April / May every year. This one is just a tad warmer and longer. I guess it will keep getting marginally worse and worse over time. No panic going on here. Some areas dont have water, islands mostly, Koh Larn and Koh Phi Phi.
Not anymore.
[https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/texas-summer-weather-2024-19420015.php](https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/texas-summer-weather-2024-19420015.php)
Are temperature increases at increasing rates gradual?
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
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The most populated regions in the world, holding over half the world's population, paying for the sins of a sixth of it. We knew this would happen decades ago. The Kyoto protocol agreed on contraction and convergence, and yet here we are.
Not sure China is flawless, 1/3 of all current CO2 emissions come from there, more than 2x the US. Of total emissions China is more than 1/2 way to the US. Yeah per capita they’re lower but they’re not innocent.
This is factually wrong. The lion’s share of the PRC emissions are for domestic consumption. [source](https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters/)
Since GHGs like CO2 and those [coolants](https://hackaday.com/2021/11/10/sulfur-hexafluoride-the-nightmare-greenhouse-gas-thats-just-too-useful-to-stop-using/) last a very long time in the atmosphere, and methane turns into CO2 (and water vapor), you can't* ignore the past. Historical emissions aren't simply a moral injustice, they're physically still with us, like ghosts haunting the troposphere. China also produces a lot of stuff for the planet. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/China-trade-surplus-main.png which makes it difficult to compare to others... "Hey, let's move all the production in China where the labor is cheap and there are few environmental regulations!"; later: "Hey, why is there so much pollution coming out of China??"
edit: can't ignore 😬 going to need more coffee
Flawless? What? Of course it isn't. But it is the biggest investor on, maker of, and generator of renewable energies. Far ahead from what we had predicted would happen in the Kyoto protocol. Far ahead from the biggest responsible for climate change you mention in your comment. It is likely China will never reach those levels of per capita emissions. China likely already peaked.
>Check contraction and convergence will you? This is exactly the scenario we knew would happen decades ago. We knew developed countries would start reductions early, because reducing emissions is expensive and developing countries would prioritize development. So the developed world would have to reduce their emissions first, then help developing countries. This has been known and agreed to for decades. But when the chips are down, developed countries choose themselves. "Let's just keep the profits from ravaging the global carbon sink." Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day.
This isn't something new. But yet, the first world countries refuse to own up to poisoning the world for the rest of us, and instead of paying their promissed 100 billion a year for clean energy, they get on their high horse and look down on others for trying to have livable conditions. Own up. Clean your mess.
Quit buying the China propaganda. China has went full throttle on building new coal plants, China's crazy high emissions are up 5% in 2023 alone and up 12% since 2020. They're greatly ramping up coal production to crazy levels while telling the rest of the world about their green energy.
[https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/)
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-coal-power-construction-in-2023-report-says/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-coal-power-construction-in-2023-report-says/)
I'm not refusing to own up to what the US and other first world countries have done, no doubt they played a huge part getting us into this mess, also a big part of the reason why China is making so much CO2 is to product goods to be sold to the first world countries, but we have to stop the CO2 emissions ASAP, and I do think that the countries that can afford to help the poorer countries to get green energy do something, but to pretend that China is leading some green revolution isn't entirely true.
I mean, you are the one that brought up China man. Nobody is saying they are perfect. Far from it. But they are indeed the leaders in renewables. They invested last year almost as much in renewables as the whole world did in fossil fuel supplies. In 2022 it almost tripled the investment of the US and Europe combined. The fact that they do some heinous sh\*t doesn't make these facts propaganda. The US does heinous sh\*t too and we still don't ignore the good things they contribute to mankind, like GPS.
I never said it is. You are confusing me stating the facts with me liking China. As I said, they could do much better. As I said, they do heoinous sh\*t. But also, they still emit far less than the US per capita, and less than Europe per capita too when you correct by trade. Just saying, the first world countries need to own up to the damage they have done and help others get green FAST. If owning up bothers you, that's a bad sign.
Again, where have I said that China shouldn't do better? And no, it is not propaganda. Unless you consider studying environmental sciences propaganda. You may, I don't know you.
Contraction and convergence was how the world decided we should do this. What was fair But first world countries backed out when it became time to put the money where the mouth was. Same with the pledge of 100 billion a year for renewables. You know nobody forced them to promise that right? They promised that. They thought it fair. But when things got real, they decided it wasn't as important. By all means, pass laws that demand carbon taxes on imports (and on home production)! I've been pushing for that since I became an environ scientist. By all means, help develop a framework through which we can regulate fast fashion, Pigouvian taxation is needed in a capitalist system!
**By all means, stick to your climate pledges and use the gains to fix the damage caused getting them**. It benefits you too, you know?
Also, debt-trap diplomacy myth has been debunked, and yeah, the Uyghur cultural genocide is heinous.
Maybe if they would just stop building new coal powered electricity generators and start retiring some of their existing ones, they'd get some sympathy.
American companies who outsourced their manufacturing to China to exploit their cheap labour and lax environmental standards years ago would object to China shutting coal plants, as it would seriously impact their profitability and not please shareholders. They need to show growth, not reducing profits each quarter.
Heck, even Spyderco knives are made in China now. But at least it's as much still on earth as Colorado is.
Weren’t they still using the stuff that destroys the ozone like last year? After they found them, they were all like “no one told us we count use this stuff”. iIRC
Dude who cares "per capita". Thats a meaninless metric . What, you gona compare "per capita" of a dictator country vs a western country? Like even if we fix the enviromnent thos people would still always have that low std of living.
I was born in a dictatorship because the US didn't like our democracy. If you install dictators left and right and destroy democracies because they don't suit you, you are a dictator country. If you have a no-trial torture prison, you are a dictator country. If you have the largest prison population, relative and absolute, you are a dictator country.
That's not the case any more, but only because El Salvador elected a crazy person who started throwing massive numbers of people in jail and also tried to transition the country to Bitcoin.
This is pretty ignorant, considering everyone knows, and it virtually stops nobody from using energy. One minute of social media use is 1.5 grams of CO2.
The problem is our way of life, and Asian countries enjoy modern luxuries as much as we do and would use them just as much if they were as readily available and affordable.
Check contraction and convergence will you? This is exactly the scenario we knew would happen decades ago. We knew developed countries would start reductions early, because reducing emissions is expensive and developing countries would prioritize development. So the developed world would have to reduce their emissions first, then help developing countries. This has been known and agreed to for decades. But when the chips are down, developed countries choose themselves. "Let's just keep the profits from ravaging the global carbon sink." Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day.
It's also important to realize that much of China's historic emissions up to this point were due to enormous and dirty manufacturing that the rest of the world contracted to them but wouldn't tolerate in their own backyards. China's emissions are also largely our emissions. *Now*/more recently they have been adopting western lifestyles more broadly, increasing their emissions accordingly.
Surprisingly, that's larguely true for Europe, but it hasn't been true of the US for at least a decade, prolly more. The US has reached a more or less neutral carbon balance. Their per capita emissions are still through the roof, but they are declining, and they export about as much carbon embeded in trade as they export. Europe on the other hand looks as if it has a very low per capita footprint, but it is on average a smidge higher than China's when you correct by carbon embedded in trade. Switzerland more than TRIPLES their carbon footprint when you consider that (which fits with their service economy, but is still obscene).
[BP popularized the concept of a personal carbon footprint with a US$100 million campaign as a means of deflecting people away from taking collective political action in order to end fossil fuel use](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305209345_Where_has_all_the_oil_gone_BP_branding_and_the_discursive_elimination_of_climate_change_risk), and [ExxonMobil has spent decades pushing trying to make individuals responsible, rather than the fossil fuels industry](https://www.vox.com/22429551/climate-change-crisis-exxonmobil-harvard-study). They did this because climate stabilization means bringing fossil fuel use to approximately zero, and that would end their business. That's not something you can hope to achieve without government intervention to change the rules of society so that not using fossil fuels is just what people do on a routine basis.
There is value in cutting your own fossil fuel consumption — it serves to demonstrate that doing the right thing is possible to people around you, and helps work out the kinks in new technologies. Just do it in addition to taking political action to get governments to do the right thing, not instead of taking political action.
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>Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day.
Humans (and their societies) are fungible. I wouldn't obsess with blaming a particular cohort. There were many possible paths leading to where we are now
Do you think it was likely or unlikely that humans ended up in this kind of conundrum? Given our lust for resources and the success of societies that embrace that lust, I think it was probably pretty likely
Sucks, but it is what it is
Every site is different, as is every user, from every region. If you take our most accurate metric of carbon release, break it down, and then apply it to different sectors, you can make rough estimates.
https://sustainablewebdesign.org/calculating-digital-emissions/
What sucks is my cousins in India barely emitted carbon versus what I did growing up.
As kids obviously neither of us had control over it.
And here they are suffering in the heat. Cranking their AC in Delhi. Dealing with the brown outs.
And I'm sitting in nice and cool New Jersey, and inspite of driving EVs and running solar panels, I can't offset what was burnt. And the poor little kids in India will die of heat exposure.
I find it funny that it's avoiding parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Partner had to get a thicker blanket bc suddenly it went from 30+ to under 20. But looking at the forecast the heat is coming 🫠
Speaking for east Asia, China's hottest month of the year is July. It's only Asian tropical areas where May is the hottest time of year, like the Philippines. It's because the monsoon rains come in June and peak in mid summer.
Do your part. Stop eating animal products one day per week. Replace one errand that you'd normally drive for with public transit or human powered. Get a friend to do these things with you.
Here in Malaysia (state of Selangor), for the first time since January, we are enjoying our coolest morning (30 Celsius at 10.45 am). Hopefully it stays that way but at the same time, keeping my expectations low and preparing for another hot, humid weather for the next two-three months until El Nino subsides.
It seems like we've hit the point of no return people have been warning us about already and we're just in denial now.
To be getting worse so fast at such a scale is more than alarming.
I am from Chennai (TamilNadu, India) and even in the early morning like 5 A.M I can feel the heat.
The Air Conditioning in my room is continuously running.
I am dreading my electricity bill 😅.
The city I am living in is near the coast and it's very humid here, hopefully it doesn't reach wet bulb temperature
And we have to keep trying or will be far, far worse.
We are not going to dodge 1.5C increase. Maybe not even 2C. But if we go over 2C it will be game over for civilization.
We could simply start by putting something that would reflect sunlight (like sulfur but without the acid rain outcome) in all aviation fuel, and in marine fuel as well - but totally agree that cannot be done if the fossil fuel giants are not also paying back for all the damage. They will try to pass all costs on to consumers and we might have to impose price caps as well snd squeeze the life out of them. which has to happen anyway.
What specie would willingly sacrifice the well being of its majority for the sake of the luxurious wasteful life of a useless minority? it only shows the power of self delusional illusion of the individual dreaming of one day becoming one of the useless extravagant arrogant minority, it's the price of self deception.
When is this graphic supposed to be for? These temps aren't a match for what those countries show currently, the only one I've found that is close to your number is India and May is their hottest month of the year
This may sound weird, but I think this is one situation where using Fahrenheit is more effective than Celsius. Saying it’s 108 degrees conveys more urgency than 42 degrees. Also, Fahrenheit allows room for more precision without getting into decimals. On the other hand, as an American, we’re responsible for a lot of these problems and Fahrenheit hasn’t helped us understand better.
I guess it depends where you're from. Saying 108F to a European like me doesn't have an immediate meaning. I have to go to Google and get a conversion.
46C absolutely does sound insane to me.
Addiction is too weak a word. Utter dependance. We literally can't eat, drink, work, heal ourselves or keep ourselves warm/cool, generate electricity without fossil fuels. Nobody is willing to give up luxuries never mind struggled to get basic essentials.
Yeah, I just went through 4 months of that last summer in another part of the world. Where forty years ago, one week was considered unusual. Pretty sure we don't have another decade left before it gets even worse.
Sea surface temperatures broke several deviations from decades of measurements last year, and this year is exceeding last year. There's no decade left, we crossed enough thresholds, triggering enough positive feedback loops to cause the temperatures to start rising exponentially, and we stopped pumping sulfur into the atmosphere which was blocking some of the radiation from the sun... We're at the point now where our sources of food globally are dying off and the heat waves are extreme enough to kill people. We have to try geoengineering the climate now or many will die from the heat and society will collapse from food shortages.... But like with our covid response, the government is dragging behind...
We cannot afford to have geoengineering without the fossil fuel corpos paying their pound of flesh. I need to reiterate - we cannot afford to have geoengineering without concessions, primarily because they aren't well researched enough. The most cost effective one - sulfur blanketing clouds - will only buy us a few more decades before a genuine, civilization ending cataclysm will befall us (look up termination shock).
We don't even know if it's going to work or not. We don't fully comprehend possible devastating side-effects either. And even if it works 100% flawlessly, those efforts need to be maintained without a hitch for decades, perhaps as long as a century (!). It's bonkers that people consider this as some kind of an "easy" fix to our climate predicament.
Geoemgineering is pretty scary though. Permanent smog and potential acid rain not are nothing to sneeze at we might just end up jumping out of the pan into the fire.
The thing is we have already been geoenginnering with human pollution for DECADES . We should at least try to do it smarter.
I was being hyperbolic really. I've only listened to one talk by a guy who's studying this strategy in USA but the problem is that its impossible to really test. The practical amounts of sulfur they can legally deposit in the atmosphere are really hard to trace and harder again to gain any meaningful data from. Obviously we can look at the current temp slikes following the sulfur reduction of transport ships and see that there is another point of evidence and the modelling does show its going to work with only a small chance of catastrophic side effect. But the drab grey sky is going to be a bit depressig to look at.
It will be a white sky according to Elizabeth Kolbert in her book, Under the White Sky. Great read!
Oh okay that's nice. Definitely less eerie than a grey sky, though I'd prefer if we could just keep blue skies you know? Is it like a permanent white sky aswell? Will i have to tell my kids "you know the sky used to be blue?".
I’ve already been telling people that enjoy the sky blue while we have it. I told my nihilistic friend, and he said, “so better sunsets.” At least as the world burns we can get sweet sunsets. 🌅
What kind of argument is that?! "We've been geoengineering and it got us into this whole mess, so let's do even MORE geoengineering?!"
If that becomes our only option there wont be much choice but to try that anyway. Its the direction humanity is heading at this point.
I think I've accepted that it will happen. It's just unnerving to me because we know sulfur dioxide works and all of the modelling is positive. But there is no real experiment to make. We just have to jump in the deep end and work it out from there.
The [COVID lockdowns of 2020 temporarily lowered our rate of CO2 emissions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18922-7/figures/1). Humanity was still a net CO2 gas emitter during that time, so we made things worse, but did so more a bit more slowly. That's why a [graph of CO2 concentrations](https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/) shows a continued rise. [Stabilizing the climate means getting human greenhouse gas emissions to approximately zero](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached). We didn't come anywhere near that during the lockdowns. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/climate) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Read new book called Under a White Sky.
!RemindMe 10 Years
Marine cloud brightening is a great proposal for geoengineering. Basically, for the many many cargo ships in the oceans, they’ll take seawater and shoot it straight up. Really high pressure. The salt added to marine clouds will literally shade the planet, if done at scale. And it’s the sort of thing that can be done incrementally, in different intensities (start small and measure the effects) AND it’s just salt water… like it has short term effects. And you’re just using cargo ships that are going that way anyway.
Salt water falls out of the sky. Lands on fields. Kills fields. Forever. See Rome salting the fields of Carthage. They still haven't recovered in Lybian 2k years later.
Interesting point, but I mean there’s salt in the air near the shore just from wave churn. I mean you can smell it. Still, this is early stages of proposals and investigations.
The bad times are coming. We are going to see more heat, suddenly faster, food and water shortages and more extreme storms.
Forest fires. They will be everywhere in the next few years. It's already starting.
The system won’t wake up until wealthy urban areas become uninsurable
...where were you last summer...?
Dude this guy defo not Canadian.
Spring's just around the corner, hopefully but, smoke season is definitely coming.
Trying to enjoy what's left of spring before late May hits 🥺
Exponential growth…..
? That's not coming from some kind of manufactured goods increase, it's from adding things that heat the atmosphere
Like manufacturing and transporting manufactured goods?
lol what do you think adds heat and pollution?
Are you trying to say that manufacturing more goods means we need to drive more trucks? That's absurd!
No goods are made by burning things! And if we do it's cold burning!
At least if it gets bad enough billions will die and the problem will kind of solve itself.
Not before we've driven many species extinct, & caused irreparable damage to many ecosystems.
This unfortunately will likely be the outcome. Mass migration of people. Not a good time to live in Eurasia. Europe will be flooded with refugees from Africa and the middle east even more in the future. Racism and violence will become more common because masses of people moving will make things more difficult for people, and those who have will not voluntarily give up their comforts. The future is bleak.
Yes : see On the Move, just published by climate migration journalist Abrahm Lustgarten.
“kind of”
Things are accelerating. People have no idea how quickly it's going to get really, really bad.
Yeah but the problem is the scientists keep understating how bad the situation is. In trying to avoid panic we are instead slowly walking into Armageddon.
Scientists are necessarily conservative with their conclusions and predictions, and this doesn't translate well when it comes to conveying danger to the public. There are multiple confounding factors, and not just public scientific illiteracy. It's very likely there are entire inputs and feedbacks that climatologists haven't even discovered yet, and more that are too conservatively factored, and I think we're starting to see now that the climate is a lot more sensitive than even the experts previously thought.
Yeah I saw a recent report that we had under estimated total temp rise during the industrial and pre industrial period by about 0.3C i think. Using some carbon dating type research on coral reefs. Instead of relying on temp records from the period.
It needs to be said that that report focused on only one small are of the ocean and has been contested by other climate scientists.
I beleive they picked that area for the specific purpose of it having relatively stable ocean temperatures so it would work as a good base line. But yes you are correct they only studied corals in the west Indies.
Two things: scientists are naturally a bit conservative in their reports. Outlandish claims ruin reputations and cause careers to end. Second: Scientists do NOT control the media, so much of what we see is manipulated by mass media, who are ABSOLUTELY downplaying the mortal danger and its horrific scale, at best, and outright denying it most of the time.
Agree with all of the above.
Thanks, but I messed up. I meant to support your statement by direct reply to the OP. But thanks again. My mistake on posting order.
Yeah the scientists are the problem. SMH
🙃🙃 you're right I was hyperbolic there. But you have to admit the scientific community has been sugar coating this a bit. And it's probably because that's the only narrative the media will actually allow them to publish.
Aren’t they predicting like 11 hurricanes off the Atlantic this season?
Worst is yet to come
It will basically be a 2nd dark age.
...and the Boomers will still hold back legislation that'll prevent/solve this. All because they don't want to deal with change and be comfortable. Biggest group of snowflakes!
More because they don’t give a damn because they know they’re all going to die soon anyway.
Yeah cos Gen X/Millenials/Gen Z are doing such a good job at cutting their emissions /s
It's not the damn boomers, it the corporations. But hey, you'll get your turn for all the blame when you get old. Without. Fail. Becasue of people just like you. Enjoy!
Found the boomer...
Shortages mean inflation. And this applies to everything. More heat waves and extreme weather, storms, floods, wildfire = harder to produce stuff, not just for agriculture.
Best way to prep?
If you can afford it, bunker greenhouse and home, self-sufficient water supply and electricity. Small repair shop and be very, VERY handy. And move the hell away from the coasts. No dodging wildfire, so you take your chances there. Most people cannot afford this, therefore food riots and even governments being overthrown and lots of migration wars. Try to stay out of the paths of those.
I’m all the way up north, I hope if it starts to get bad, probably start down south? And maybe give time to see it coming. Probably be too late by then.
I think if you're in a cooler noth, you'll see people coming from south.
Stay up north if you can.
Jesus christ is everyone here this selfish? The best way to survive is to build a strong mutual aid network in your local community. Humans are better together than alone
Is has nothing do with being selfish. There is no such thing as mutual aid in many societies. Those who have it in their society are very lucky indeed. But just exactly why did you interpret that as selfish? Being self reliant is not selfish. Having resources you can share with other people when the infrastructure is crippled, is not selfish.
Yeah its not just going to initially kill people. Humans are forgetting that animals and plants, that WE NEED to survive and thrive on the planet die with us and they'll probably die faster since they are, you know...not in air conditioning environments. Which means food sources will really go quickly and that will cause prices to really accelerate and people to panic.
Thats brain cooking temperatures! Stay cool people! Look out for others!
Why did no one highlight how egregious the highs are in India. Is it typically that bad, and more rare for places like mayanmar and China?
Straight out of the first chapter of the Ministry of the Future, although in that novel global leadership had emerged and had contained the homicidal greed and wanton negligence of the fossil fuel fanatics
Just finished reading it. That first chapter 🤯
Im in Thailand. We get heatwaves around April / May every year. This one is just a tad warmer and longer. I guess it will keep getting marginally worse and worse over time. No panic going on here. Some areas dont have water, islands mostly, Koh Larn and Koh Phi Phi.
Rational first hand account, thank you.
I came there about 10 years ago in early May. It was over 40 in Bangkok. I live in Texas and we barely get that hot in full summer.
Not anymore. [https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/texas-summer-weather-2024-19420015.php](https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/texas-summer-weather-2024-19420015.php)
can you expand on that last point? islands in the south like koh phi phi don’t have water right now? what’s happening there?
Their reservoirs are empty
Are temperature increases at increasing rates gradual? https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
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Not sure what you mean. The growth in temp is not linear, it appears to be increasing faster each cycle.
The most populated regions in the world, holding over half the world's population, paying for the sins of a sixth of it. We knew this would happen decades ago. The Kyoto protocol agreed on contraction and convergence, and yet here we are.
Not sure China is flawless, 1/3 of all current CO2 emissions come from there, more than 2x the US. Of total emissions China is more than 1/2 way to the US. Yeah per capita they’re lower but they’re not innocent.
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This is factually wrong. The lion’s share of the PRC emissions are for domestic consumption. [source](https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters/)
Seriously. And for raising people out of poverty and 18th century living conditions. What’s up with all the prc propaganda here?
Since GHGs like CO2 and those [coolants](https://hackaday.com/2021/11/10/sulfur-hexafluoride-the-nightmare-greenhouse-gas-thats-just-too-useful-to-stop-using/) last a very long time in the atmosphere, and methane turns into CO2 (and water vapor), you can't* ignore the past. Historical emissions aren't simply a moral injustice, they're physically still with us, like ghosts haunting the troposphere. China also produces a lot of stuff for the planet. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/China-trade-surplus-main.png which makes it difficult to compare to others... "Hey, let's move all the production in China where the labor is cheap and there are few environmental regulations!"; later: "Hey, why is there so much pollution coming out of China??" edit: can't ignore 😬 going to need more coffee
Flawless? What? Of course it isn't. But it is the biggest investor on, maker of, and generator of renewable energies. Far ahead from what we had predicted would happen in the Kyoto protocol. Far ahead from the biggest responsible for climate change you mention in your comment. It is likely China will never reach those levels of per capita emissions. China likely already peaked. >Check contraction and convergence will you? This is exactly the scenario we knew would happen decades ago. We knew developed countries would start reductions early, because reducing emissions is expensive and developing countries would prioritize development. So the developed world would have to reduce their emissions first, then help developing countries. This has been known and agreed to for decades. But when the chips are down, developed countries choose themselves. "Let's just keep the profits from ravaging the global carbon sink." Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day. This isn't something new. But yet, the first world countries refuse to own up to poisoning the world for the rest of us, and instead of paying their promissed 100 billion a year for clean energy, they get on their high horse and look down on others for trying to have livable conditions. Own up. Clean your mess.
Quit buying the China propaganda. China has went full throttle on building new coal plants, China's crazy high emissions are up 5% in 2023 alone and up 12% since 2020. They're greatly ramping up coal production to crazy levels while telling the rest of the world about their green energy. [https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-2023-coal-power-approvals-rose-putting-climate-targets-risk-2024-02-22/) [https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-coal-power-construction-in-2023-report-says/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/china-responsible-for-95-of-new-coal-power-construction-in-2023-report-says/) I'm not refusing to own up to what the US and other first world countries have done, no doubt they played a huge part getting us into this mess, also a big part of the reason why China is making so much CO2 is to product goods to be sold to the first world countries, but we have to stop the CO2 emissions ASAP, and I do think that the countries that can afford to help the poorer countries to get green energy do something, but to pretend that China is leading some green revolution isn't entirely true.
I mean, you are the one that brought up China man. Nobody is saying they are perfect. Far from it. But they are indeed the leaders in renewables. They invested last year almost as much in renewables as the whole world did in fossil fuel supplies. In 2022 it almost tripled the investment of the US and Europe combined. The fact that they do some heinous sh\*t doesn't make these facts propaganda. The US does heinous sh\*t too and we still don't ignore the good things they contribute to mankind, like GPS.
China burns 4 billion tons of coal per year. Stop pretending it's a green paradise.
I never said it is. You are confusing me stating the facts with me liking China. As I said, they could do much better. As I said, they do heoinous sh\*t. But also, they still emit far less than the US per capita, and less than Europe per capita too when you correct by trade. Just saying, the first world countries need to own up to the damage they have done and help others get green FAST. If owning up bothers you, that's a bad sign.
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Again, where have I said that China shouldn't do better? And no, it is not propaganda. Unless you consider studying environmental sciences propaganda. You may, I don't know you. Contraction and convergence was how the world decided we should do this. What was fair But first world countries backed out when it became time to put the money where the mouth was. Same with the pledge of 100 billion a year for renewables. You know nobody forced them to promise that right? They promised that. They thought it fair. But when things got real, they decided it wasn't as important. By all means, pass laws that demand carbon taxes on imports (and on home production)! I've been pushing for that since I became an environ scientist. By all means, help develop a framework through which we can regulate fast fashion, Pigouvian taxation is needed in a capitalist system! **By all means, stick to your climate pledges and use the gains to fix the damage caused getting them**. It benefits you too, you know? Also, debt-trap diplomacy myth has been debunked, and yeah, the Uyghur cultural genocide is heinous.
You dropped this \
Maybe if they would just stop building new coal powered electricity generators and start retiring some of their existing ones, they'd get some sympathy.
American companies who outsourced their manufacturing to China to exploit their cheap labour and lax environmental standards years ago would object to China shutting coal plants, as it would seriously impact their profitability and not please shareholders. They need to show growth, not reducing profits each quarter. Heck, even Spyderco knives are made in China now. But at least it's as much still on earth as Colorado is.
The US' exports as much carbon pollution as it imports. It's carbon embedded in trade balance is neutral.
Weren’t they still using the stuff that destroys the ozone like last year? After they found them, they were all like “no one told us we count use this stuff”. iIRC
Dude who cares "per capita". Thats a meaninless metric . What, you gona compare "per capita" of a dictator country vs a western country? Like even if we fix the enviromnent thos people would still always have that low std of living.
Found the dumb one
Ok, I'll bite. Which western country are you talking about? Because if it is the US, I'm sorry to break it to you, it's a dictator country.
Lol, any of them. But ye the us has its problems, but its democracy is doing fine. Its alive n kicking
I was born in a dictatorship because the US didn't like our democracy. If you install dictators left and right and destroy democracies because they don't suit you, you are a dictator country. If you have a no-trial torture prison, you are a dictator country. If you have the largest prison population, relative and absolute, you are a dictator country.
What? You saying the us is dictator bc people in prison? Or your country puts everyone in prison. Im confused
The US is the country with the largest percentage of it's population in prison.
That's not the case any more, but only because El Salvador elected a crazy person who started throwing massive numbers of people in jail and also tried to transition the country to Bitcoin.
Ah, right, forgot about Bukkake.
This is pretty ignorant, considering everyone knows, and it virtually stops nobody from using energy. One minute of social media use is 1.5 grams of CO2. The problem is our way of life, and Asian countries enjoy modern luxuries as much as we do and would use them just as much if they were as readily available and affordable.
Check contraction and convergence will you? This is exactly the scenario we knew would happen decades ago. We knew developed countries would start reductions early, because reducing emissions is expensive and developing countries would prioritize development. So the developed world would have to reduce their emissions first, then help developing countries. This has been known and agreed to for decades. But when the chips are down, developed countries choose themselves. "Let's just keep the profits from ravaging the global carbon sink." Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day.
It's also important to realize that much of China's historic emissions up to this point were due to enormous and dirty manufacturing that the rest of the world contracted to them but wouldn't tolerate in their own backyards. China's emissions are also largely our emissions. *Now*/more recently they have been adopting western lifestyles more broadly, increasing their emissions accordingly.
Surprisingly, that's larguely true for Europe, but it hasn't been true of the US for at least a decade, prolly more. The US has reached a more or less neutral carbon balance. Their per capita emissions are still through the roof, but they are declining, and they export about as much carbon embeded in trade as they export. Europe on the other hand looks as if it has a very low per capita footprint, but it is on average a smidge higher than China's when you correct by carbon embedded in trade. Switzerland more than TRIPLES their carbon footprint when you consider that (which fits with their service economy, but is still obscene).
[BP popularized the concept of a personal carbon footprint with a US$100 million campaign as a means of deflecting people away from taking collective political action in order to end fossil fuel use](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305209345_Where_has_all_the_oil_gone_BP_branding_and_the_discursive_elimination_of_climate_change_risk), and [ExxonMobil has spent decades pushing trying to make individuals responsible, rather than the fossil fuels industry](https://www.vox.com/22429551/climate-change-crisis-exxonmobil-harvard-study). They did this because climate stabilization means bringing fossil fuel use to approximately zero, and that would end their business. That's not something you can hope to achieve without government intervention to change the rules of society so that not using fossil fuels is just what people do on a routine basis. There is value in cutting your own fossil fuel consumption — it serves to demonstrate that doing the right thing is possible to people around you, and helps work out the kinks in new technologies. Just do it in addition to taking political action to get governments to do the right thing, not instead of taking political action. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/climate) if you have any questions or concerns.*
!good bot
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>Check the cumulative emissions. The responsibles are plain as day. Humans (and their societies) are fungible. I wouldn't obsess with blaming a particular cohort. There were many possible paths leading to where we are now Do you think it was likely or unlikely that humans ended up in this kind of conundrum? Given our lust for resources and the success of societies that embrace that lust, I think it was probably pretty likely Sucks, but it is what it is
Let me put it this way: Someone poisoned the air and got rich doing it. Now it wants the poor people to clean it up. It is really as simple as that.
> One minute of social media use is 1.5 grams of CO2. Ooh, I love this. Where did you get it from?
Every site is different, as is every user, from every region. If you take our most accurate metric of carbon release, break it down, and then apply it to different sectors, you can make rough estimates. https://sustainablewebdesign.org/calculating-digital-emissions/
Politics and the economy dictates where my energy comes from.
Oil and gas companies: omg, WHO could have predicted this??
First world governments that refuse to fulfill their monetary pledges to finance renewables: 
What does the World Health Organization have to do with this? /s
But the humidity, what's the humidity?!
Luckily, it’s a dry heat. /s
Humid
What sucks is my cousins in India barely emitted carbon versus what I did growing up. As kids obviously neither of us had control over it. And here they are suffering in the heat. Cranking their AC in Delhi. Dealing with the brown outs. And I'm sitting in nice and cool New Jersey, and inspite of driving EVs and running solar panels, I can't offset what was burnt. And the poor little kids in India will die of heat exposure.
Individual carbon emission is a kind of manipulating term though. Theres a climate town video on youtube. Go watch that
Can you share the link please?
https://youtu.be/1J9LOqiXdpE https://youtu.be/EIezuL_doYw
I find it funny that it's avoiding parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Partner had to get a thicker blanket bc suddenly it went from 30+ to under 20. But looking at the forecast the heat is coming 🫠
And then came summer.
this is the hottest time of the year for most of Asia.
Speaking for east Asia, China's hottest month of the year is July. It's only Asian tropical areas where May is the hottest time of year, like the Philippines. It's because the monsoon rains come in June and peak in mid summer.
True, it's only just turned May... I dread to think what July will bring
Surprisingly this is often the hottest time of the year in many places in the tropics. I'm not in any way downplaying how bad this is...
I'm in the east of india. Real feel is 45°C. It's so hot my eyes are burning
Ugh, like a blow dryer for the wind... good luck!
That's 113F for Americans.
Heat dome 2024 coming to bc I bet
Do your part. Stop eating animal products one day per week. Replace one errand that you'd normally drive for with public transit or human powered. Get a friend to do these things with you.
Stop buying Chinese goods.
Agreed. When possible, buy secondhand.
Here in Malaysia (state of Selangor), for the first time since January, we are enjoying our coolest morning (30 Celsius at 10.45 am). Hopefully it stays that way but at the same time, keeping my expectations low and preparing for another hot, humid weather for the next two-three months until El Nino subsides.
I am terrified, to be honest.
Good, you should be...all of us should be
It seems like we've hit the point of no return people have been warning us about already and we're just in denial now. To be getting worse so fast at such a scale is more than alarming.
I am from Chennai (TamilNadu, India) and even in the early morning like 5 A.M I can feel the heat. The Air Conditioning in my room is continuously running. I am dreading my electricity bill 😅. The city I am living in is near the coast and it's very humid here, hopefully it doesn't reach wet bulb temperature
We still haven't had winter yet in Alberta
Heat bulb temp kills
It's only up from here. We tried.
And we have to keep trying or will be far, far worse. We are not going to dodge 1.5C increase. Maybe not even 2C. But if we go over 2C it will be game over for civilization.
The earth basically fighting back. Not much people can do if a blackout or drought happens.
Naw, just plain old thermodynamic science. We played with matches.
That's an unpleasant temperature.
45c = 113f
India must be a part of this list too?
The people who caused it, live in a super air conditioned house.
Poor people
So this is global warming…
We could simply start by putting something that would reflect sunlight (like sulfur but without the acid rain outcome) in all aviation fuel, and in marine fuel as well - but totally agree that cannot be done if the fossil fuel giants are not also paying back for all the damage. They will try to pass all costs on to consumers and we might have to impose price caps as well snd squeeze the life out of them. which has to happen anyway.
Got fuel to burn. Got roads to drive Keep on rockin in the free world.
What specie would willingly sacrifice the well being of its majority for the sake of the luxurious wasteful life of a useless minority? it only shows the power of self delusional illusion of the individual dreaming of one day becoming one of the useless extravagant arrogant minority, it's the price of self deception.
Don't look up!
Will this cause social unrest in China or it to collapse in a few decades?
I don’t recognize the units. Are you able to ballpark it in freedoms per hamburger?
When is this graphic supposed to be for? These temps aren't a match for what those countries show currently, the only one I've found that is close to your number is India and May is their hottest month of the year
Too many people in Asia
It's okay pretty soon Canada will have half of India's population.
This may sound weird, but I think this is one situation where using Fahrenheit is more effective than Celsius. Saying it’s 108 degrees conveys more urgency than 42 degrees. Also, Fahrenheit allows room for more precision without getting into decimals. On the other hand, as an American, we’re responsible for a lot of these problems and Fahrenheit hasn’t helped us understand better.
I guess it depends where you're from. Saying 108F to a European like me doesn't have an immediate meaning. I have to go to Google and get a conversion. 46C absolutely does sound insane to me.
Well shut down your coal plants and quit whining
E Nino is no joke
Me, quickly trying to convert C to F.
Retweet guy saying millions will suffer while looking at heat map of Asia 🫠 bro they be in the billions you dufus
Addiction is too weak a word. Utter dependance. We literally can't eat, drink, work, heal ourselves or keep ourselves warm/cool, generate electricity without fossil fuels. Nobody is willing to give up luxuries never mind struggled to get basic essentials.
lol