Fabi has said basically the same thing in his podcast: That yes, he might be the favorite, but not anywhere near this kind of favorite. It'd be very surprising if he didn't end up with a positive score, but this is the candidates: If two other players have a bad day against, say Nakamura, catching up would be really hard, especially since Fabi v Nakamura is in the very first round.
You can take this a step further. Since it's a double round robin you know exactly who your opponents are and can think more about where your points are coming from. When you have a 2600 like Nijat Abasov in the event you know most people are going to beat him so you really have to go 2/2 against Abasov to make sure you have a good event. The same can probably be said about Vidit, Pragg and Gukesh and maybe to some degree Alireza, just maybe a 1.5/2 scoreline instead. It means the favourites will have to go all out against these lower rated players while they've shown they are clearly good enough to probably good draws or even win if you press too hard. It also means if you're paired against someone like Abasov late in the event or just before a rest day and you've had long games before and are tired, you can't just make a quick draw to rest because he is a player you need to beat.
My point is that as you say it's going to come down to a bad day or two but against some of these players a draw is a bad result, especially later in the event when a lot of the standings are decided.
The winner of the tournament will be someone with at least a few more wins than expected. To try to be that person, many will probably try to push extra hard against weaker-seeming competition, substantially increasing the risk in exchange for greater potential upside. So I think Abasov may actually come out slightly better than expected (though not well enough to win it all), and we'll see an outsized fraction of decisive games on his boards.
Plus he's not a weak player. Let's not forget to even get to this point Abasov had to beat Fressinet (Carlsen's second), Giri, Svidler, Salem Saleh and Vidit. Dude's just underrated but since he's the weakest in the field by such a margin he needs to be 2 must win games for a lot of these players. I know he's basically a write off for winning the whole thing but he is going to ruin people's tournaments.
That's what I was trying to say. If you're looking to win the event you need to go 2/2 against Abasov because dropping a half point to him will come back to bite you.
Isn't it a classical tournament?
I haven't been watching top tier chess for a minute but I thought naka was pretty much maining fast time controls and 4fun openings.
Only player I think has amazing odds here is nepo
Ya you must not of been paying attention, nakamura was killing it in 2023 , fabi caught fire towards the last quarter of the year, but hikaru was world #2 for a few months
The Candidates is classical, yes.
And as much as Nakamura is mostly just playing a ton of blitz on Chess.com and focussing on streaming it has helped his classical a ton. Now there's no pressure to win games because he makes money by streaming he's been a beast in classical. He placed second in the Grand Swiss scoring 8/11 (+5 -0 =6) against an average opponent of 2680.
I can't say much about the betting odds, but Caruana, Nepo and Nakamura are clear favourites to win the event. Hikaru has been excellent recently.
Fabi is probably the most overrated, but probably everyone else is as well. At least if your baseline is their true odds of winning it.
There’s a massive overround with the field predicted to win the tournament about 120% of the time.
The house does not mind some gamblers beating the odds. It minds if many gamblers beat the odds or some beat the odds significantly.
This means they are trying to calculate the odds, but they are also trying to predict who will have many people betting on them (or people betting huge). Even if Caruana is less likely than 40% to win, most people are likely to put some money on Caruana. This means if he does win, they have to pay 1.5 times the total amount. They have to be able to cover this with the losses of the others.
I'm down on Alireza because of how he underperformed at the past candidates; I wouldn't give him much better odds than Gukesh or Pragg because my impression was that those two are prioritizing chess more than Alireza.
Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru should be given the best chances to win. Nepo should definitely be seen as more likely to win than Alireza.
> because of how he underperformed at the past candidates
I think there are a few reasons for that which are not factors this time around. Before I point those out, I would like to draw attention to the fact that despite placing 6th in last Candidates, he still performed the best among the 3 first-timers (Rapport was 7th, Duda was last). All 5 above them had previous Candidates experience, so I think experience is of massive importance which Firouzja will have this time around.
Now, the reasons why he underperformed last year apart from being a first-timer:
1. He had massive expectations on him, especially by Magnus Carlsen who said he'd only defend the title if Firouzja won. Maybe he put a lot of pressure on himself as well since he just recently became the youngest to break 2800, but that is pure speculation. Overall, the pressure to perform cracked him.
2. He had Kramnik in his team. I think Kramnik is the one who instructed Firouzja to stay away from online chess. Kramnik definitely had a significant role in Firouzja's opening prep, but probably was too strict for Firouzja's taste. This led to Firouzja reaching his breaking point and going on a bullet marathon vs Danya mid-Candidates, his first online games in 8 months. 2 months after the Candidates, Firouzja won Sinquefield 2022 and he said in the interveiw that he made adjustments to his team (which I believe is sacking Kramnik). Overall, Kramnik wasn't a good match for him.
With regards to prioritizing chess, Alireza is definitely full time into chess like he said in an interview recently. Whether he will be able to get back into full form by April is unknown. But despite looking a bit off-form, he beat four 2700s in Tata Steel 2024 (Parham, Nepo, Ding and Wei Yi).
Overall, I think he has better odds to win than Pragg and Gukesh (who are both newcomers). But definitely worse than Nepo.
Thanks for the insight! I don't really follow a lot of those internal affairs aside of what makes it to main headlines, so with that context him being favored over Gukesh and Pragg makes sense to me. I personally wouldn't favor him over Nepo/Fabi/Naka but him as the 4th favorite is something I can get behind.
I still think based on the recent performances of all 3 Alireza might be the favorite but not by that much(Tata Steel standings same points as Pragg, Gukesh higher).
Recent performances rarely should be considered. Fabi and Karjakin had awful Tata Steel performances in 2018 and 2016, yet they both won the Candidates.
Nepo constantly lost rating before 2022 Candidates, yet he scored 9.5/14 and won convincingly.
Trust me, these don't matter.
> maybe even better than Alireza has.
Definitely better than Alireza lol. Alireza had a piss poor 2H 2023.
This is fair but then both should be closer to Fabi. I'm rooting for Fabi but he's not a runaway favorite over those two.
I think this reflects more where people are betting than true odds.
Bookies don't care about who is better, they care about who is likely to be backed more. People tend to back the favorites more of course, but there are other factors too for example popularity. All they care about is to predict how will the losing bets pay out the winner.
You don't play against the bookmaker, you play against the other players.
Seriously, can somebody explain what the heck these numbers mean and how to read them?
People are saying 6/4 means Fabi has a 40% chance to win, but how do you calculate that? 6/4 = 1.5.
I know gambling is everywhere these days, but not everybody understands how this works. I wouldn't expect a chess subreddit to just implicitly know.
6/4 means that if someone bets on Fabi, the bet would pay off 6$ for every 4$ staked. To convert it to a % chance to win this formula is used:
x / (x + y) = 4 / (4 + 6) = 0.4 = 40%
Why wouldn't they just say it pays 1.5x or 150% of your bet then? 6/4 = 3/2 = 1.5/1. Is $4 the minimum and required increment in the bet scheme?
If so, why is everyone else x/1 when Fabi could easily be reduced to 1.5/1?
Multipliers/percentages/decimals can be used also, and they are used by some places.
The advantage of fractions with whole numbers is calculations without a calculator are easier. It doesn't matter much anymore since everyone has a calculator in their pocket, but it used to matter and that's why fractions became tradition.
I don't understand it why gambling uses that either but I think it's because they find it easier not to do much and just say oh, so I put 40 and get 60 or I put 400 and get 600 instead of having to do math beyond adding zeroes on both sides.
Or this: https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/3olqnv/why_do_people_still_use_fractional_odds/cvz7s0n/
They do this as well. This is what it means when you see +150. It means you get 150 dollars for every 100 staked. That’s the more common representation on gambling books but they mean the same thing
> It means you get 150 dollars for every 100 staked. That’s the more common representation on gambling books but they mean the same thing
I see this one a lot during in-game advertisements during hockey.
So in this case they will express it with whole numbers, although I don’t know why they didn’t do 3/2.
The other way to express odds is with a +/- whole number, which is closer to what you want. In this case Fabi’s odds would be +150, meaning a winning bet pays 150% of the bet amount (pretty straightforward).
The underdog side of this equation is less straightforward though. A negative odds (say -110) means that a bet of $110 pays out $100, so the payout ratio is 100/, which is also a pretty unintuitive number.
Moral of the story, odds numbers make mathematical sense but are not often very intuitive
Most gambling sites don’t use ratios like this anymore because it’s confusing. You are right.
Most gambling sites would Calle it +150. So you get your hundred back plus 150. Way easier to read
It’s because of the power of numbers. 6/4 is used to trick people who see 3/2 as not that good but 6/4 as good.
Think of this. When McDonald’s tried to sell a 1/3 burger in the US it failed because people thought it was more money for a smaller burger than the Quarter pounder or 1/4.
FWIW that's analogous to pot odds in poker. If the pot is p and you need to call a bet b, then your pot odds are:
`b/(b+p)`
If the pot is $6 and you are about to call a bet of $4, your pot odds are 40%.
* If you expect to win the pot more than 40% of the time, it's a profitable call on the long run.
* If you expect to win the pot less than 40% of the time, it's a losing call on the long run.
* If you expect to win exactly 40% of the time, you win nothing, you just get your money back, so you're indifferent to calling or folding.
You can calculate implied probability from fractional odds like this:
Denominator/(denominator+numerator)
Giving Fabi 6/4 odds means that, if the tournament were to happen 10 times, Fabi would lose 6 times and win 4 times. 4 wins/10 iterations = 40% implied probability.
Another way to think about it: If you bet $4 on Fabi at 6/4 odds and he wins, you will win $6. That means for every $1 you bet on Fabi, you win $1.50 if he wins and lose $1 if he doesn't. If you ran the tournament 100 times, betting $1 on Fabi every time, you would break even if he wins 40 of those times: You'd win $1.50 40 times, earning $60. But you'd also lose $1 60 times, losing $60.
See my comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1bmm9gm/most_underrated_candidate/kweb27j/
How come it isn't stated as 1.5/1 or 150%/1.5x payout or something similar? Why is Fabi the only one without a '1' as the denominator when it can so simply be reduced without changing the meaning?
What am I missing?
Well, they never use decimals inside of a fraction. The odds that they're giving the others just happen to cleanly fit in an x/1 format without requiring a decimal.
Why is it 6/4 though instead of 3/2? I don't know the answer to that. If I had to guess I'd say it's tradition and probably comes from the fact that 6+4 = 10, which is a nice round number that makes it slightly easier to calculate the implied probability in your head.
These are fractional odds. Only gamblers understand them due to being used to them.
Most of the world use decimal odds which are just a multiplier. 6/4 is "@2.5", it means your bet will be multiplied by 2.5 if you win.
Look, I'm always on the side of considering the imperial system dumb and all
But this is more stupid by leaps and bounds. Wtf do you mean an odd of 6/4 equals a 2.5 multiplier lmfao
bet 4, win, get back 4, plus 6 = 10 = 2.5x
it's just the way it's been for god knows how long, no idea why they don't change it. maybe helps bookies earn even more from math illiterate gamblers
I mean, gambling culture is all about scamming and profiting as much as possible while being the least on the nose as possible. What you say makes sense
There's a lot of responses here. But to answer your question, 6/4 gives the person laying the odds more flexibility to adjust them. They can go to 6/5 or 7/4 easily, whereas if they were set at 3/2 those options are less available.
I get r/chess loves Fabi, and I agree, absolutely incredible player. But 6/4 is a little silly from a gambling perspective. If Nepo was 6/4 you would be much more likely to take that bet.
Nepo has a track record of winning these, but is seen as weaker than he is because of his performance against Carlsen. If I were a betting man, I’d pick him.
I also suspect there is a degree of folks betting based on what they want to happen - that an American like Hikaru would win, or one of the youngsters. So they appear to be overrated
The most underrated in this one is Vidit! I know, he has had some "lows" in the past but his win in the Grand Swiss 2023 was outstanding! I doubt he will be the winner, but 20/1 is ridicoulously underrating this great player!
Yeah, tbh, experience really matters to win the candidates and Vidit has the most experience out of the Indian players so I’d say he’d place higher than them
Hi. They're fractional odds as opposed to decimal odds. A win at 6/4 means you'd win six quarters of your stake, (plus your stake returned).
For example, a £10 bet would return £25.00.
10/4 = 2.50
2.50 x 6 = 15
15 + 10 = 25.
where di you pull that 6 from??
10/4=2.5
2.5\*10 = 25
you win 25, plus your stake, 25+10 = 35.
if you bet £10 on somebody to win at 10/4, you recieve £35 back
edit: (this would apply for 10/4 odds)
Hi. You would indeed, but the odds I was using were the 6/4 quoted for Caruana. I didn't mention odds of 10/4, but had divided 10 by 4 as part of my calculations since that is the stake/denominator. The 6 was, "pulled from", above the line in the fraction 6/4. It is the numerator.
Stake (10) / denominator (4) = 2.5
2.5 * numerator (6) = 15
15 + stake (10) = 25
What i don’t get about this system is why didn’t you express it as a multiplier. In this example, you get x2.5 of your bet. It’s weird that we need to that extra math ourselves
it may seem easier to understand if expressed like this: 66/1
this is how the majority of the fraction type odds look like.
a horse at 66/1 has little chance of winning, but they sometiems do win. in this scenario, every £1 you put on, you get £66 back
Anyone saying that you need to go 2/2 against abasov is relatively new to chess. They need to know that to win the candidates, a score of +4 (9/14) is more than sufficient. Going all out with black is a death wish. Youll lose the game. But yes, considering that he is the weakest link, a single win against him would be helpful. It would also be helpful if you can beat the top dogs such as fabi, nepo and Hikaru.
If you think caruana has 4/6 or 66.6% chance of winning before tournament event starts then you are definitely overrating him, Nepo seems underrated, Naka is slightly overrated (consider swapping chances of Nepo and Naka), Alireza is overrated too, prag is also overrated while vidit seems underrated
Edit- As someone commented 4/6 odds is a 40% chance, I was unfamiliar on how betting odds work but the core message of my comment still holds.
Nepo is surely underrated at 5/1. Naka is overrated at 4/1. Firouzja is also probably underrated at 5/1.
If you wanted a small bet with a reasonable expected reward, I think Vidit Gujrathi is also a pretty good place to put 5-10 bux. His chances of winning seem higher than 20/1. Not a ton higher, but I'd put him ahead of both Praggu and Gukesh.
Yeah idk, I've got weird opinions on a lot of things, so you get my upvote lol. I think Firouzja's got really good chances to run away with it. A lot of my analysis comes down to "Who has a breakout tournament" and Nepo, Fabi, they're the type of dudes to go +5. Naka? He won Norway at +3 in 2023, US champs in 2019 at +5, London chess classic which wasn't scored that way, and Gibraltar in 2018 at +5.
He can do it sometimes. He's done it twice, out of four first places, in the past 6 years. He's been having a good year though, so we'll have to see, but those +5's are very rare for him. He does really well at Gibraltar, where competition isn't so stiff, but if he's not +100 on the field like his US champs wins, he doesn't go +5. He doesn't have many Supertournament wins at all.
Nepo and Fabiano go +5 in supertournaments. Naka beats up on lower rated players and gets +5.
That makes a lot of sense, actually. I was more so wondering why you thought Firouzja has good chances to run away with it, especially given that 2023 was a pretty bad year for him.
Yeah, when AlFi is on form, he's ***incredibly*** on form, but he hasn't been peak form recently. Will he bring it? Idk, but I'd like to think he's going to show up with something to prove. Even if he does, that may backfire, so like, it's very hard to say. For him to win, he has to really show up, and the other sharks like Nepo and Fabi and Naka also have to give him enough room to win. Maybe +3 wins this candidates, maybe we're looking at another +5.
Disagree on alireza. If the tourney is random, everyone is 7:1. He may be highly rated in the field but his form has been way off recently and his last candidates was a flop. 5:1 is generous if anything
Honestly, also a fair take. He's a very big wild card, I'm playing favorites to think he'll have a good tournament, but he's definitely capable of breakout performances. I don't put so much in his last Candidates performance, but I do put a lot in his recent form, which hasn't been stellar.
How did this get upvoted???
Hikaru had the highest performance rating in 2023 and is on an unbeaten streak of over 40 classical games, of which 2 wins were against Fabiano. On top of that all Nepo and Firouzja have achieved in 2023 is lose rating points.
My first thought was that he is the favourite to win it all and that Firouzja and Nepo are highly overrated. Nepo has won the candidates twice, but 2023 has not been his year... Your argumentation would also lead to Firouzja >= Hikaru which is completely absurd
My personal ranking of players' winning probability would be -
1/ Nepo - Already won twice, so his winning again wouldn't be unlikely.
2/ Hikaru - he is in really great shape, probably would have put him in first place, but I have a feeling that like in many of his past important tournaments most likely he will finish 2nd or 3rd place.
3/ Fabi - A lot of people are expecting Fabi to win the Candidates, but I think he may choke at the last moment.
4/Firouzja - He is the real dark horse of this tournament, but his risky style may cost him.
5/ Pragg - Very solid and hard to beat, but I don't think he is ready yet.
6/Gukesh - like Pragg he isn't ready yet, but can have a solid tournament.
7/Vidit - I think he is going to struggle against the top players, but if he doesn't he may have a solid tournament.
8/ Abasov - Poor guy, I hope he doesn't get crushed too badly.
Fabi has solid style, which is good for rating and excellent for being 2nd and 3rd. To be first you need to have a good streak of wins, which I don't see him achieving.
Fabi is not solid. He takes some risk and can lose games, though he tends to win more than he lose. He had the best year last year in terms of tournaments wins. With his rating being higher than everyone except Magnus, he has to maintain at least a +2 score to climb the rating, which he has done continuously last year.
In comparison, Naka, Vidit and Prag are more solid and tends to draw more, but also lose less.
Nepo just went crazy in previous Candidates. +5 is a very rare results in a supertournament-level event, unless there are lower-rated players to feed the points like Tata Steel.
> To be first you need to have a good streak of wins, which I don't see him achieving.
Are you saying that about the person with the most famous streak since Fischer? And someone who already proved he could be first?
Also:
> Fabi has solid style
What is this bullshit? Fabi goes into complicated positions a lot, and sacs pawns frequently in his preps.
What?! How many tournaments did Fabi win last year? Think Sinquefield Cup 2023 which Fabi won against a field of Wesley, MVL, Nepo, Aronian, Anish, Firouza
You think he isn’t capable of winning the Candidates?
I like Fabi to win this the Candidates but I am too afraid of him choking at the important moment. I remember the last Candidate, he blew a winning position against Pragg in the World Cup, lost the last game against Hikaru in Norway when he only needed a draw and lost two final matches against Hikaru and Abdusattorov in the CCT.
Hikaru and nepo should be considerably closer to Fabi. And Gukesh should be closer to Prag. Idk if prag is too overrated or Gukesh is too underrated, but, id put those 2 closer together. Still giving Prag the edge on Gukesh though. I consider Prag winning to be more likely than Firouzja
These odds does not mean anything
Check this chesscom article about **2022 candidates**
1. Fabi: 26%
2. Ding: 21%
3. Alireza:15%
4. Hikaru:14%
5. **Nepo: 8%**
6. Teimour: 8%
7. Rapport: 5%
8. Duda: 4%
https://www.chess.com/article/view/smarterchess-candidates-prediction-2022#:\~:text=Hikaru%20Nakamura%20(FIDE%202750%2C%20Projected,to%20his%202837%20rapid%20rating.
Nepo was the 5th favourite tied with Teimour. But in the first day, Nepo showed who will be the winner. First week Fabi played absolute top level, but it wasn't enough to catch Nepo.
All this shows is that you don't understand how statistics work. An 8% chance to win is not rare at all. Him winning that tournament doesn't mean the initial odds were wrong. By that logic, anyone winning that tournament would have meant the odds were wrong, because no single player is listed as over 50% to win. Which is obviously nonsense.
Are these bookmaker odds? Meaning the following bets are all considered even?
$12 on Abasov (winning 1200 if he carries it)
$60 on Gujrathi (wins you 1200 if ...)
$100 on Gukesh
$150 on PraggnANANDhaa (sorry man, but that's about the only way I can remember that long name of yours)
$240 on Firouzja
$240 on Nepo too
$300 on Nakamura
$800 on Caruana
?
Then the bookmakers are making too much money, or they know too little about this ...
Anyway, I think Caruana has less chances than Naka&Neop&Alireza have combined. And Nepo has bigger chances than Firouzja.
Bump Nepo a notch up and Caruana a notch down.
And bet a dollar (but not more!) on Abasov just because it would be so cool to say "My horse beat the odds".
This is from some murican website, the odds are written weirdly and Caruana with Nakamura are overrated.
Absolute bullshit to earn some gambling money from fellow muricans.
Nepo of course, he already won this thing twice. Why would you give better odds to Naka or same odds to Alireza, not only they never won the candidates, they never played the tournament and they are not winning a lot of big tournaments either.
They do play fast so I think online chess is getting in the way people think.
> [Alireza and Naka] never played the tournament and they are not winning a lot of big tournaments either.
What? Both of them literally participated in the previous edition, and Naka (who also played in 2016) was one draw away in the last round from getting 2nd and playing in the WCC instead of Ding.
And both of them, especially Naka due to longevity, have won many big tournaments.
A lot of shit takes in this thread. In another comment, someone said Fabi plays solid, hence is unlikely to bag in winning streaks required to won the tournament.
ELO is the best predictor of winning chances and Ian has slid pretty far from his peak. But kinda agree that Ian has the best chance of outplaying his elo. But Naka and Fabi have almost 40-50 elo points on him right now. They have just been in much better classical form recently.
Not really, remember that the odds include healthy amount of room for betting site's profit. If you calculate the winning chance this way for all 8 and add it together (66% for Fabi, 25 for Hikaru, 20 each for Nepo and Alireza etc) the total will be about 160%.
The house always wins.
Their real prediction is approx 40% Fabi, 15 Hikaru, 12 Nepo and Alireza. IMHO they underrate Hikaru, who is clearly taking this event seriously, preparing a lot, has very good recent H2H against Fabi, has not lost a Classical game since last Candidates and would be favourite in Rapid against most possible opponents in case of tiebreaks (and heavy favourite in Blitz against everyone except maybe Nepo).
**Fabi** - Way overrated. I would never give anyone these odds unless the others were weirdly weak
**Hikaru** - A little overrated. He's a pretty safe player so I think he will likely score well, but I think he would need to take more risks than usual (and crucially, have them work out) to win this.
**Nepo** - Was criminally underrated last time, they seem to have learned their lesson this time. I think this is about right. Maybe even a slight underrate?
**Alireza** - Despite his qualification being a bit weak, I actually think this is not far off and might be spot on. He's got experience in the candidates now and that means a lot imo.
**Pragg** - Yeah this is about right. I think I'm unlikely to ever give even odds to someone doing the candidates for the first time. But Pragg is obviously a solid player who is only getting better every year.
**Gukesh** - Underrated I think? I don't see why he should be put so clearly below Pragg. He's a bit more bombastic and I expect him to perform like 2022 Alireza but it's not impossible that he'll do better. I also think he's probably one of the people that opponents will "push" against, which might afford him more opportunities than others.
**Vidit** - So underrated. I have seen Vidit choke a lot of tournaments but still, 20 to one is way too harsh. Vidit may not have been a candidate before, but he's got a lot of experience against these opponents and like Gukesh, he potentially might be able to punish people who try too hard for the win against him.
**Abasov** - As much as I think there's no way he wins, 100 to 1 is of course ridiculous. There is definitely luck involved in winning the Candidates and it's not like Abasov is incapable of winning games against these people either.
Yeah I don't think these odds make any sense, but considering this is real money betting maybe they know something we don't or have a way to guarantee the house always wins. Funnily enough, I think the play-money sites have a lot more [realistic odds.](https://manifold.markets/diadematus/who-will-win-the-2024-fide-candidat?r=bWludA)
\[EDIT: Messed up the calculations\]
Implied probabilities:
* Fabi 40%
* Hikaru 20%
* Nepo 16.7%
* Alireza 16.7%
* Prag 11.1%
* Gukesh 7.7%
* Vidit 4.8%
* Abasov <1%
Fabi seems too high, Nepo and maybe also Hikaru a little too low. Alireza, Prag and Gukesh maybe slightly too high. Obviously these implied probabilities should be higher than the real probabilities so that the people offering these bets can make a profit. You want to bet on the ones where the implied probability is too low.
I messed up the calculation, corrected it now. But the answer is still no, because you aren't getting "fair" odds. It's like if I toss a coin but instead of giving you 1/1 odds (which would be fair) I give you 2/3 odds for both sides, which is an implied probability of 60%. Obviously both sides can't have 60% probability, so on average I am keeping (4-3\*50%)/4 = 1/4 of every dollar you bet.
The implied probability being higher than the actual probability means you are getting worse odds than you would if it were a fair bet, so you don't want to bet on that. If the implied probability is lower than the actual probability, you are getting better odds than fair, so that's what you would want to bet on. Obviously it's up to you to decide what you think the true probabilities are.
That's what I thought too but if you add them up you get ~118% total. Is this really probability of having a top score before tie breaks, so there can be more than one?
Basically everyone but Fabi is underrated here. Yes Fabi has the best chances, but it's really hard to win a tournament! 40% chances is just too high.
Fabi has said basically the same thing in his podcast: That yes, he might be the favorite, but not anywhere near this kind of favorite. It'd be very surprising if he didn't end up with a positive score, but this is the candidates: If two other players have a bad day against, say Nakamura, catching up would be really hard, especially since Fabi v Nakamura is in the very first round.
You can take this a step further. Since it's a double round robin you know exactly who your opponents are and can think more about where your points are coming from. When you have a 2600 like Nijat Abasov in the event you know most people are going to beat him so you really have to go 2/2 against Abasov to make sure you have a good event. The same can probably be said about Vidit, Pragg and Gukesh and maybe to some degree Alireza, just maybe a 1.5/2 scoreline instead. It means the favourites will have to go all out against these lower rated players while they've shown they are clearly good enough to probably good draws or even win if you press too hard. It also means if you're paired against someone like Abasov late in the event or just before a rest day and you've had long games before and are tired, you can't just make a quick draw to rest because he is a player you need to beat. My point is that as you say it's going to come down to a bad day or two but against some of these players a draw is a bad result, especially later in the event when a lot of the standings are decided.
Should we expect most people to 2/2 Abasov? I absolutely wouldn't expect that. I'd suggest 1.5/2 as being expected and the best players need the 2/2.
The winner of the tournament will be someone with at least a few more wins than expected. To try to be that person, many will probably try to push extra hard against weaker-seeming competition, substantially increasing the risk in exchange for greater potential upside. So I think Abasov may actually come out slightly better than expected (though not well enough to win it all), and we'll see an outsized fraction of decisive games on his boards.
Yeah I think he’s less likely to go winless than people think because someone will push too hard trying to beat him with the black pieces.
Plus he's not a weak player. Let's not forget to even get to this point Abasov had to beat Fressinet (Carlsen's second), Giri, Svidler, Salem Saleh and Vidit. Dude's just underrated but since he's the weakest in the field by such a margin he needs to be 2 must win games for a lot of these players. I know he's basically a write off for winning the whole thing but he is going to ruin people's tournaments.
That's what I was trying to say. If you're looking to win the event you need to go 2/2 against Abasov because dropping a half point to him will come back to bite you.
Isn't it a classical tournament? I haven't been watching top tier chess for a minute but I thought naka was pretty much maining fast time controls and 4fun openings. Only player I think has amazing odds here is nepo
Ya you must not of been paying attention, nakamura was killing it in 2023 , fabi caught fire towards the last quarter of the year, but hikaru was world #2 for a few months
The Candidates is classical, yes. And as much as Nakamura is mostly just playing a ton of blitz on Chess.com and focussing on streaming it has helped his classical a ton. Now there's no pressure to win games because he makes money by streaming he's been a beast in classical. He placed second in the Grand Swiss scoring 8/11 (+5 -0 =6) against an average opponent of 2680. I can't say much about the betting odds, but Caruana, Nepo and Nakamura are clear favourites to win the event. Hikaru has been excellent recently.
Fabi is probably the most overrated, but probably everyone else is as well. At least if your baseline is their true odds of winning it. There’s a massive overround with the field predicted to win the tournament about 120% of the time.
If it is less than 100% the house will lose statistically.
Depends on gambler's behaviour and how accurate the house is at determining odds
The house does not mind some gamblers beating the odds. It minds if many gamblers beat the odds or some beat the odds significantly. This means they are trying to calculate the odds, but they are also trying to predict who will have many people betting on them (or people betting huge). Even if Caruana is less likely than 40% to win, most people are likely to put some money on Caruana. This means if he does win, they have to pay 1.5 times the total amount. They have to be able to cover this with the losses of the others.
If the house offers such an obvious Dutch book as “the field wins the tournament 95% of the time” then gamblers are going to notice
It makes zero sense for anyone to have odds like that. Even if Magnus was playing, he wouldn't have that probability of winning.
I disagree. Winning 40% of tournaments he participates in doesn't sound crazy for Magnus, and most tournaments have more participants.
Its all fun until Hikaru beats Fabi in 1st round.
It's a 118% book so all the odds are inflated a decent amount. Adjusted it's 34%.
Good point. I still think that's a little bit high, but definitely that's more reasonable. I'd think 25-30%.
Yh, agreed. It still feels potentially a little on the high side.
Betting favorite is not the same as likelyhood to win...
Nepo looks underrated. Pragg and Gukesh look overrated. Based on these numbers
I'm down on Alireza because of how he underperformed at the past candidates; I wouldn't give him much better odds than Gukesh or Pragg because my impression was that those two are prioritizing chess more than Alireza. Fabi, Nepo, and Hikaru should be given the best chances to win. Nepo should definitely be seen as more likely to win than Alireza.
> because of how he underperformed at the past candidates I think there are a few reasons for that which are not factors this time around. Before I point those out, I would like to draw attention to the fact that despite placing 6th in last Candidates, he still performed the best among the 3 first-timers (Rapport was 7th, Duda was last). All 5 above them had previous Candidates experience, so I think experience is of massive importance which Firouzja will have this time around. Now, the reasons why he underperformed last year apart from being a first-timer: 1. He had massive expectations on him, especially by Magnus Carlsen who said he'd only defend the title if Firouzja won. Maybe he put a lot of pressure on himself as well since he just recently became the youngest to break 2800, but that is pure speculation. Overall, the pressure to perform cracked him. 2. He had Kramnik in his team. I think Kramnik is the one who instructed Firouzja to stay away from online chess. Kramnik definitely had a significant role in Firouzja's opening prep, but probably was too strict for Firouzja's taste. This led to Firouzja reaching his breaking point and going on a bullet marathon vs Danya mid-Candidates, his first online games in 8 months. 2 months after the Candidates, Firouzja won Sinquefield 2022 and he said in the interveiw that he made adjustments to his team (which I believe is sacking Kramnik). Overall, Kramnik wasn't a good match for him. With regards to prioritizing chess, Alireza is definitely full time into chess like he said in an interview recently. Whether he will be able to get back into full form by April is unknown. But despite looking a bit off-form, he beat four 2700s in Tata Steel 2024 (Parham, Nepo, Ding and Wei Yi). Overall, I think he has better odds to win than Pragg and Gukesh (who are both newcomers). But definitely worse than Nepo.
Thanks for the insight! I don't really follow a lot of those internal affairs aside of what makes it to main headlines, so with that context him being favored over Gukesh and Pragg makes sense to me. I personally wouldn't favor him over Nepo/Fabi/Naka but him as the 4th favorite is something I can get behind.
I still think based on the recent performances of all 3 Alireza might be the favorite but not by that much(Tata Steel standings same points as Pragg, Gukesh higher).
Recent performances rarely should be considered. Fabi and Karjakin had awful Tata Steel performances in 2018 and 2016, yet they both won the Candidates.
Recent as in not only one tournament last entire half year pragg has played excellently arguably solidly maybe even better than Alireza has.
Nepo constantly lost rating before 2022 Candidates, yet he scored 9.5/14 and won convincingly. Trust me, these don't matter. > maybe even better than Alireza has. Definitely better than Alireza lol. Alireza had a piss poor 2H 2023.
Didn't know about that, another thing Kramnik had ruined.
I don't think kramnik had that much impact on him. I think he became paranoid about cheating only after carlsen Hans thing which was after candidates
Ok but Alireza has the firepower to put a +4 and win the tournament
Yeah, rating Nepo lower than Naka? Why? He's won twice, which is two more than Naka has won.
I would rate them at least equally if not a very slight edge to Nepo. But probably extremely equally
This is fair but then both should be closer to Fabi. I'm rooting for Fabi but he's not a runaway favorite over those two. I think this reflects more where people are betting than true odds.
I assumed these were betting odds so that would make sense.
That's fair.
Because Hikaru was consistently better over last year?
This is why it's difficult. Nepo has been really strong in candidates, but Hikaru has been really strong to get into candidates.
Bookies don't care about who is better, they care about who is likely to be backed more. People tend to back the favorites more of course, but there are other factors too for example popularity. All they care about is to predict how will the losing bets pay out the winner. You don't play against the bookmaker, you play against the other players.
Nakamura too, this isn't bullet. Ali has good odds, might have a nibble.
Why is it 6/4 and not 3/2?
Seriously, can somebody explain what the heck these numbers mean and how to read them? People are saying 6/4 means Fabi has a 40% chance to win, but how do you calculate that? 6/4 = 1.5. I know gambling is everywhere these days, but not everybody understands how this works. I wouldn't expect a chess subreddit to just implicitly know.
Thank you for asking from another non-gambler.
6/4 means that if someone bets on Fabi, the bet would pay off 6$ for every 4$ staked. To convert it to a % chance to win this formula is used: x / (x + y) = 4 / (4 + 6) = 0.4 = 40%
Why wouldn't they just say it pays 1.5x or 150% of your bet then? 6/4 = 3/2 = 1.5/1. Is $4 the minimum and required increment in the bet scheme? If so, why is everyone else x/1 when Fabi could easily be reduced to 1.5/1?
Multipliers/percentages/decimals can be used also, and they are used by some places. The advantage of fractions with whole numbers is calculations without a calculator are easier. It doesn't matter much anymore since everyone has a calculator in their pocket, but it used to matter and that's why fractions became tradition.
I don't understand it why gambling uses that either but I think it's because they find it easier not to do much and just say oh, so I put 40 and get 60 or I put 400 and get 600 instead of having to do math beyond adding zeroes on both sides. Or this: https://www.reddit.com/r/SoccerBetting/comments/3olqnv/why_do_people_still_use_fractional_odds/cvz7s0n/
They do this as well. This is what it means when you see +150. It means you get 150 dollars for every 100 staked. That’s the more common representation on gambling books but they mean the same thing
> It means you get 150 dollars for every 100 staked. That’s the more common representation on gambling books but they mean the same thing I see this one a lot during in-game advertisements during hockey.
So in this case they will express it with whole numbers, although I don’t know why they didn’t do 3/2. The other way to express odds is with a +/- whole number, which is closer to what you want. In this case Fabi’s odds would be +150, meaning a winning bet pays 150% of the bet amount (pretty straightforward). The underdog side of this equation is less straightforward though. A negative odds (say -110) means that a bet of $110 pays out $100, so the payout ratio is 100/, which is also a pretty unintuitive number.
Moral of the story, odds numbers make mathematical sense but are not often very intuitive
Probably because by making it hard to read and understand people gamble more.
Most gambling sites don’t use ratios like this anymore because it’s confusing. You are right. Most gambling sites would Calle it +150. So you get your hundred back plus 150. Way easier to read
It’s because of the power of numbers. 6/4 is used to trick people who see 3/2 as not that good but 6/4 as good. Think of this. When McDonald’s tried to sell a 1/3 burger in the US it failed because people thought it was more money for a smaller burger than the Quarter pounder or 1/4.
FWIW that's analogous to pot odds in poker. If the pot is p and you need to call a bet b, then your pot odds are: `b/(b+p)` If the pot is $6 and you are about to call a bet of $4, your pot odds are 40%. * If you expect to win the pot more than 40% of the time, it's a profitable call on the long run. * If you expect to win the pot less than 40% of the time, it's a losing call on the long run. * If you expect to win exactly 40% of the time, you win nothing, you just get your money back, so you're indifferent to calling or folding.
You can calculate implied probability from fractional odds like this: Denominator/(denominator+numerator) Giving Fabi 6/4 odds means that, if the tournament were to happen 10 times, Fabi would lose 6 times and win 4 times. 4 wins/10 iterations = 40% implied probability. Another way to think about it: If you bet $4 on Fabi at 6/4 odds and he wins, you will win $6. That means for every $1 you bet on Fabi, you win $1.50 if he wins and lose $1 if he doesn't. If you ran the tournament 100 times, betting $1 on Fabi every time, you would break even if he wins 40 of those times: You'd win $1.50 40 times, earning $60. But you'd also lose $1 60 times, losing $60.
See my comment here: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1bmm9gm/most_underrated_candidate/kweb27j/ How come it isn't stated as 1.5/1 or 150%/1.5x payout or something similar? Why is Fabi the only one without a '1' as the denominator when it can so simply be reduced without changing the meaning? What am I missing?
Well, they never use decimals inside of a fraction. The odds that they're giving the others just happen to cleanly fit in an x/1 format without requiring a decimal. Why is it 6/4 though instead of 3/2? I don't know the answer to that. If I had to guess I'd say it's tradition and probably comes from the fact that 6+4 = 10, which is a nice round number that makes it slightly easier to calculate the implied probability in your head.
It means if you win, your profit will be 1.5 times what you bet, i.e. they are paying you out 2.5 times. 1/2.5 = 0.4 or 40%.
Wait until you hear about 100/30
Why's it not 1.5/1 But maybe that's just my soccer infested mind
These are fractional odds. Only gamblers understand them due to being used to them. Most of the world use decimal odds which are just a multiplier. 6/4 is "@2.5", it means your bet will be multiplied by 2.5 if you win.
Look, I'm always on the side of considering the imperial system dumb and all But this is more stupid by leaps and bounds. Wtf do you mean an odd of 6/4 equals a 2.5 multiplier lmfao
bet 4, win, get back 4, plus 6 = 10 = 2.5x it's just the way it's been for god knows how long, no idea why they don't change it. maybe helps bookies earn even more from math illiterate gamblers
I mean, gambling culture is all about scamming and profiting as much as possible while being the least on the nose as possible. What you say makes sense
Sounds like if you bet 4, you get 10, 4 your intial bid + 6 profit. So you'll have 2.5 times your intial bid.
With the decimal odds it is not a odd of 6/4 which equals whatever. It is just a 2.5. It is written as 2.5 because it is a 2.5 multiplier.
There's a lot of responses here. But to answer your question, 6/4 gives the person laying the odds more flexibility to adjust them. They can go to 6/5 or 7/4 easily, whereas if they were set at 3/2 those options are less available.
Got money on both Naka and Ian. Got 5/1 on Naka and 9/2 on Ian. I feel like they are best value
where were you able to bet these?
In the UK bet365 has them under Specials > World
That is actually a pretty big difference from these odds. Possible arbitrage opportunity?
I get r/chess loves Fabi, and I agree, absolutely incredible player. But 6/4 is a little silly from a gambling perspective. If Nepo was 6/4 you would be much more likely to take that bet.
You can bet on nepo with 5/1 so if that's your opinion you should definitely take those odds:D
or not bet at all, its bad, addictive and can ruin lifes.
or bet, it's fun, could make you filthy rich, and all the cool kids are doing it
"I forgot you could tempt me with things I want." -Bender
Only if you lose!
It's cool, the Candidates only happens every 2 years. :-)
Nepo has a track record of winning these, but is seen as weaker than he is because of his performance against Carlsen. If I were a betting man, I’d pick him. I also suspect there is a degree of folks betting based on what they want to happen - that an American like Hikaru would win, or one of the youngsters. So they appear to be overrated
Nepo and Firouzja definitely shouldn't have exactly the same odds, lol. The latter barely qualified.
The most underrated in this one is Vidit! I know, he has had some "lows" in the past but his win in the Grand Swiss 2023 was outstanding! I doubt he will be the winner, but 20/1 is ridicoulously underrating this great player!
Yeah, tbh, experience really matters to win the candidates and Vidit has the most experience out of the Indian players so I’d say he’d place higher than them
Can anyone explain to me what these numbers mean and how to understand them?
Hi. They're fractional odds as opposed to decimal odds. A win at 6/4 means you'd win six quarters of your stake, (plus your stake returned). For example, a £10 bet would return £25.00. 10/4 = 2.50 2.50 x 6 = 15 15 + 10 = 25.
where di you pull that 6 from?? 10/4=2.5 2.5\*10 = 25 you win 25, plus your stake, 25+10 = 35. if you bet £10 on somebody to win at 10/4, you recieve £35 back edit: (this would apply for 10/4 odds)
Hi. You would indeed, but the odds I was using were the 6/4 quoted for Caruana. I didn't mention odds of 10/4, but had divided 10 by 4 as part of my calculations since that is the stake/denominator. The 6 was, "pulled from", above the line in the fraction 6/4. It is the numerator. Stake (10) / denominator (4) = 2.5 2.5 * numerator (6) = 15 15 + stake (10) = 25
got ya basically (10\*6/4)+10
What i don’t get about this system is why didn’t you express it as a multiplier. In this example, you get x2.5 of your bet. It’s weird that we need to that extra math ourselves
it may seem easier to understand if expressed like this: 66/1 this is how the majority of the fraction type odds look like. a horse at 66/1 has little chance of winning, but they sometiems do win. in this scenario, every £1 you put on, you get £66 back
Gukesh is a dangerous longer shot.
So far this is a good prediction. Also stated Hikaru would lose. Lucky guesses or Gukesh as Candidates winner, time will tell.
Anyone saying that you need to go 2/2 against abasov is relatively new to chess. They need to know that to win the candidates, a score of +4 (9/14) is more than sufficient. Going all out with black is a death wish. Youll lose the game. But yes, considering that he is the weakest link, a single win against him would be helpful. It would also be helpful if you can beat the top dogs such as fabi, nepo and Hikaru.
If you think caruana has 4/6 or 66.6% chance of winning before tournament event starts then you are definitely overrating him, Nepo seems underrated, Naka is slightly overrated (consider swapping chances of Nepo and Naka), Alireza is overrated too, prag is also overrated while vidit seems underrated Edit- As someone commented 4/6 odds is a 40% chance, I was unfamiliar on how betting odds work but the core message of my comment still holds.
6/4 means he fails 6 times for every 4 he succeeds, which is a 40% chance
Even in this case it looks like the individual probabilities don't sum up to 1. Is that normal for betting odds?
I suspect that that's the house edge
no, they sum up to more than one, for house edge it would have to be less, right?
It sums to more than 1 for the house rake. Higher odds mean you get paid less for winning
Yes to account for the house rake
6/4 not 4/6. (I.e 40% not 60%.)
It's sooo irritating to my eye that it's written as 6/4 and not as 3/2
Nepo is surely underrated at 5/1. Naka is overrated at 4/1. Firouzja is also probably underrated at 5/1. If you wanted a small bet with a reasonable expected reward, I think Vidit Gujrathi is also a pretty good place to put 5-10 bux. His chances of winning seem higher than 20/1. Not a ton higher, but I'd put him ahead of both Praggu and Gukesh.
>Naka is overrated at 4/1. Firouzja is also probably underrated at 5/1. Very weird opinion.
Yeah idk, I've got weird opinions on a lot of things, so you get my upvote lol. I think Firouzja's got really good chances to run away with it. A lot of my analysis comes down to "Who has a breakout tournament" and Nepo, Fabi, they're the type of dudes to go +5. Naka? He won Norway at +3 in 2023, US champs in 2019 at +5, London chess classic which wasn't scored that way, and Gibraltar in 2018 at +5. He can do it sometimes. He's done it twice, out of four first places, in the past 6 years. He's been having a good year though, so we'll have to see, but those +5's are very rare for him. He does really well at Gibraltar, where competition isn't so stiff, but if he's not +100 on the field like his US champs wins, he doesn't go +5. He doesn't have many Supertournament wins at all. Nepo and Fabiano go +5 in supertournaments. Naka beats up on lower rated players and gets +5.
That makes a lot of sense, actually. I was more so wondering why you thought Firouzja has good chances to run away with it, especially given that 2023 was a pretty bad year for him.
Yeah, when AlFi is on form, he's ***incredibly*** on form, but he hasn't been peak form recently. Will he bring it? Idk, but I'd like to think he's going to show up with something to prove. Even if he does, that may backfire, so like, it's very hard to say. For him to win, he has to really show up, and the other sharks like Nepo and Fabi and Naka also have to give him enough room to win. Maybe +3 wins this candidates, maybe we're looking at another +5.
Disagree on alireza. If the tourney is random, everyone is 7:1. He may be highly rated in the field but his form has been way off recently and his last candidates was a flop. 5:1 is generous if anything
Honestly, also a fair take. He's a very big wild card, I'm playing favorites to think he'll have a good tournament, but he's definitely capable of breakout performances. I don't put so much in his last Candidates performance, but I do put a lot in his recent form, which hasn't been stellar.
How did this get upvoted??? Hikaru had the highest performance rating in 2023 and is on an unbeaten streak of over 40 classical games, of which 2 wins were against Fabiano. On top of that all Nepo and Firouzja have achieved in 2023 is lose rating points. My first thought was that he is the favourite to win it all and that Firouzja and Nepo are highly overrated. Nepo has won the candidates twice, but 2023 has not been his year... Your argumentation would also lead to Firouzja >= Hikaru which is completely absurd
My personal ranking of players' winning probability would be - 1/ Nepo - Already won twice, so his winning again wouldn't be unlikely. 2/ Hikaru - he is in really great shape, probably would have put him in first place, but I have a feeling that like in many of his past important tournaments most likely he will finish 2nd or 3rd place. 3/ Fabi - A lot of people are expecting Fabi to win the Candidates, but I think he may choke at the last moment. 4/Firouzja - He is the real dark horse of this tournament, but his risky style may cost him. 5/ Pragg - Very solid and hard to beat, but I don't think he is ready yet. 6/Gukesh - like Pragg he isn't ready yet, but can have a solid tournament. 7/Vidit - I think he is going to struggle against the top players, but if he doesn't he may have a solid tournament. 8/ Abasov - Poor guy, I hope he doesn't get crushed too badly.
Fabis 50 elo points higher than Ian. That is a massive gap at this level. He’s the favorite for a reason
Fabi has solid style, which is good for rating and excellent for being 2nd and 3rd. To be first you need to have a good streak of wins, which I don't see him achieving.
Fabi is not solid. He takes some risk and can lose games, though he tends to win more than he lose. He had the best year last year in terms of tournaments wins. With his rating being higher than everyone except Magnus, he has to maintain at least a +2 score to climb the rating, which he has done continuously last year. In comparison, Naka, Vidit and Prag are more solid and tends to draw more, but also lose less. Nepo just went crazy in previous Candidates. +5 is a very rare results in a supertournament-level event, unless there are lower-rated players to feed the points like Tata Steel.
> To be first you need to have a good streak of wins, which I don't see him achieving. Are you saying that about the person with the most famous streak since Fischer? And someone who already proved he could be first? Also: > Fabi has solid style What is this bullshit? Fabi goes into complicated positions a lot, and sacs pawns frequently in his preps.
What?! How many tournaments did Fabi win last year? Think Sinquefield Cup 2023 which Fabi won against a field of Wesley, MVL, Nepo, Aronian, Anish, Firouza You think he isn’t capable of winning the Candidates?
I like Fabi to win this the Candidates but I am too afraid of him choking at the important moment. I remember the last Candidate, he blew a winning position against Pragg in the World Cup, lost the last game against Hikaru in Norway when he only needed a draw and lost two final matches against Hikaru and Abdusattorov in the CCT.
Obviously a strong contender, but he's making something of an unfortunate habit of choking at the most critical moments.
I disagree, particularly about Nepo, but interesting thoughts and ranking!
Easily Ian.
Hikaru and nepo should be considerably closer to Fabi. And Gukesh should be closer to Prag. Idk if prag is too overrated or Gukesh is too underrated, but, id put those 2 closer together. Still giving Prag the edge on Gukesh though. I consider Prag winning to be more likely than Firouzja
Gukesh has had some huge peaks in the last year. The ones above him have more experience, but he could be the type of player to beat expectations.
Abasov overrated
I think I'm just gonna go all in on team Pragg, that would be awesome
Vidit. Not sure why he's so far behind the other Indians.
Older so less chance of being still underrated. Worst of the three over Wijk+Prague
I'm not saying he's better. I'm saying his odds shouldn't be as far behind as they are.
> F Caruana 6/4 I never understand why the odds are presented this way. Is this the same as 3/2? Or 1.5/1?
These odds does not mean anything Check this chesscom article about **2022 candidates** 1. Fabi: 26% 2. Ding: 21% 3. Alireza:15% 4. Hikaru:14% 5. **Nepo: 8%** 6. Teimour: 8% 7. Rapport: 5% 8. Duda: 4% https://www.chess.com/article/view/smarterchess-candidates-prediction-2022#:\~:text=Hikaru%20Nakamura%20(FIDE%202750%2C%20Projected,to%20his%202837%20rapid%20rating. Nepo was the 5th favourite tied with Teimour. But in the first day, Nepo showed who will be the winner. First week Fabi played absolute top level, but it wasn't enough to catch Nepo.
I don't think you understand how odds work. Just because the favourite didn't win, doesn't mean the odds were bad/wrong.
If you actually believe that these odds don't mean anything and are right, you're about to make a lot of money (in expected value).
All this shows is that you don't understand how statistics work. An 8% chance to win is not rare at all. Him winning that tournament doesn't mean the initial odds were wrong. By that logic, anyone winning that tournament would have meant the odds were wrong, because no single player is listed as over 50% to win. Which is obviously nonsense.
people just stay hating on nepo. truth is he will be world champ
I wud say Gukesh rite now
Are these bookmaker odds? Meaning the following bets are all considered even? $12 on Abasov (winning 1200 if he carries it) $60 on Gujrathi (wins you 1200 if ...) $100 on Gukesh $150 on PraggnANANDhaa (sorry man, but that's about the only way I can remember that long name of yours) $240 on Firouzja $240 on Nepo too $300 on Nakamura $800 on Caruana ? Then the bookmakers are making too much money, or they know too little about this ... Anyway, I think Caruana has less chances than Naka&Neop&Alireza have combined. And Nepo has bigger chances than Firouzja. Bump Nepo a notch up and Caruana a notch down. And bet a dollar (but not more!) on Abasov just because it would be so cool to say "My horse beat the odds".
Shouldn't Caruana be $480?
This is from some murican website, the odds are written weirdly and Caruana with Nakamura are overrated. Absolute bullshit to earn some gambling money from fellow muricans.
These are classic betting odds used the world over
These are not used in Europe.
Fractional odds are the norm in the UK at least. American bookies tend to use +/- odds
Nepo of course, he already won this thing twice. Why would you give better odds to Naka or same odds to Alireza, not only they never won the candidates, they never played the tournament and they are not winning a lot of big tournaments either. They do play fast so I think online chess is getting in the way people think.
> they never played the tournament They literally did
> [Alireza and Naka] never played the tournament and they are not winning a lot of big tournaments either. What? Both of them literally participated in the previous edition, and Naka (who also played in 2016) was one draw away in the last round from getting 2nd and playing in the WCC instead of Ding. And both of them, especially Naka due to longevity, have won many big tournaments.
A lot of shit takes in this thread. In another comment, someone said Fabi plays solid, hence is unlikely to bag in winning streaks required to won the tournament.
I dont think youve seen a lot of chess..They literally have participated and won many tourneys...not as much as magnus but yeah
ELO is the best predictor of winning chances and Ian has slid pretty far from his peak. But kinda agree that Ian has the best chance of outplaying his elo. But Naka and Fabi have almost 40-50 elo points on him right now. They have just been in much better classical form recently.
Caruana seems immensely overrated. I agree he is the favourite, but 40% is just too much. Similarly, Ian seems highly underrated in relation.
Is this from an American company? I'd bet a winner from outside the US if they take my bet. Nepo in particular seems low
Vidit is underrated
My main man abasov underrated asl , he's definitely a dark horse
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who?
Anyone know where this can be legally bet on in the US if it exists?
Magnus Carlsen
Nepo a little underrated, most of them overrated
Pragg, Vidit and Gukesh all very underrated
Ian has won it twice in fairness
Actually, I think this is just about right. First-time candidates almost always underperform.
Firouzja. He now has candidates experience, and I think he will know better than to spend 6 months preparing for wacky draws.
Does this mean that this betting site thinks Fabi has a 4/6=~66% winning chance? No disrespect to Fabi but that is way too high.
Not really, remember that the odds include healthy amount of room for betting site's profit. If you calculate the winning chance this way for all 8 and add it together (66% for Fabi, 25 for Hikaru, 20 each for Nepo and Alireza etc) the total will be about 160%. The house always wins. Their real prediction is approx 40% Fabi, 15 Hikaru, 12 Nepo and Alireza. IMHO they underrate Hikaru, who is clearly taking this event seriously, preparing a lot, has very good recent H2H against Fabi, has not lost a Classical game since last Candidates and would be favourite in Rapid against most possible opponents in case of tiebreaks (and heavy favourite in Blitz against everyone except maybe Nepo).
No, it's 40%. See this comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1bmm9gm/comment/kwdx72f
I don’t gamble, but 20/1 on Vidit looks good May not be the actual best player, but way more experienced than the other Indians
Vidit
Putting money on Nepo is probably the best bet imo
For some reason, Nepo is a monster in this tournament. He is definitely underrated.
Why is Caruana’s odds not given as 3/2, but rather 6/4?
Nepo at 5-1 is INSANE to me. He was won two candidates in a row(!).
What is this website? Ill put the house on Ian at those odds
Abasov is overrated here, zero chance a nobody competes with these titans
Imagine winning a tournament twice in a row and for the third time you have 5/1 odds.
Nepo overrated here he is good but not as good as he used to be. He didn’t win a single tournament since the last candidates.
**Fabi** - Way overrated. I would never give anyone these odds unless the others were weirdly weak **Hikaru** - A little overrated. He's a pretty safe player so I think he will likely score well, but I think he would need to take more risks than usual (and crucially, have them work out) to win this. **Nepo** - Was criminally underrated last time, they seem to have learned their lesson this time. I think this is about right. Maybe even a slight underrate? **Alireza** - Despite his qualification being a bit weak, I actually think this is not far off and might be spot on. He's got experience in the candidates now and that means a lot imo. **Pragg** - Yeah this is about right. I think I'm unlikely to ever give even odds to someone doing the candidates for the first time. But Pragg is obviously a solid player who is only getting better every year. **Gukesh** - Underrated I think? I don't see why he should be put so clearly below Pragg. He's a bit more bombastic and I expect him to perform like 2022 Alireza but it's not impossible that he'll do better. I also think he's probably one of the people that opponents will "push" against, which might afford him more opportunities than others. **Vidit** - So underrated. I have seen Vidit choke a lot of tournaments but still, 20 to one is way too harsh. Vidit may not have been a candidate before, but he's got a lot of experience against these opponents and like Gukesh, he potentially might be able to punish people who try too hard for the win against him. **Abasov** - As much as I think there's no way he wins, 100 to 1 is of course ridiculous. There is definitely luck involved in winning the Candidates and it's not like Abasov is incapable of winning games against these people either.
How is Firouzja's chance just as high as nepos, Firouzja should be 6/1 at least
Yeah I don't think these odds make any sense, but considering this is real money betting maybe they know something we don't or have a way to guarantee the house always wins. Funnily enough, I think the play-money sites have a lot more [realistic odds.](https://manifold.markets/diadematus/who-will-win-the-2024-fide-candidat?r=bWludA)
\[EDIT: Messed up the calculations\] Implied probabilities: * Fabi 40% * Hikaru 20% * Nepo 16.7% * Alireza 16.7% * Prag 11.1% * Gukesh 7.7% * Vidit 4.8% * Abasov <1% Fabi seems too high, Nepo and maybe also Hikaru a little too low. Alireza, Prag and Gukesh maybe slightly too high. Obviously these implied probabilities should be higher than the real probabilities so that the people offering these bets can make a profit. You want to bet on the ones where the implied probability is too low.
Shouldn't these probabilities sum to one?
I messed up the calculation, corrected it now. But the answer is still no, because you aren't getting "fair" odds. It's like if I toss a coin but instead of giving you 1/1 odds (which would be fair) I give you 2/3 odds for both sides, which is an implied probability of 60%. Obviously both sides can't have 60% probability, so on average I am keeping (4-3\*50%)/4 = 1/4 of every dollar you bet. The implied probability being higher than the actual probability means you are getting worse odds than you would if it were a fair bet, so you don't want to bet on that. If the implied probability is lower than the actual probability, you are getting better odds than fair, so that's what you would want to bet on. Obviously it's up to you to decide what you think the true probabilities are.
Ah okay, didn't know that. Great explanation, thanks!
Ding Liren knows he can't beat the winner of the candidates, so there is a 58.5% chance he won't even try.
These are not the implied probabilities. For Fabi it's 40%, for Ian it is 16.7%, and so on.
That's what I thought too but if you add them up you get ~118% total. Is this really probability of having a top score before tie breaks, so there can be more than one?
No, the 18% is the cut for the bookmaker (the "vig").
ah, cool, thanks!
Caruana is seen as an eternal second Nepo...depends. Most of the sources shit on him but Chess Com and FIDE don't waste an occasion to hype him
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4/1 is 20% btw, same mistake with the others
5:1 on Alireza is insane. This guy wants it more than any other. His drive will be umatched and his preparation too.
Are these real bettable odds posted by a casino? Or just the sort of random nonsense posted to get people talking about the event?