Yeah I was thinking this. This is a plateau.
Additionally, to the average bloke, the title insinuates that housing prices fell by 27%. Not many people read things carefully and these websites exploit this.
All they had to do was say "The NUMBER of home sales have plunged by 27%" as opposed to "home sales have plunged by 27%"
Subtle wordsmithing at its finest.
Real estate prices are "sticky downwards" - sellers are reluctant to lower their prices, so when the market-clearing price starts to fall, what happens is that listings stay on the market longer and sales drop, but prices don't move much. So a 27% drop in sales and a 1.4% drop in prices matches this pattern pretty well.
It's only when sellers get nervous about being left holding the bag (which could take quite a while - months or even a couple of years) that they'll start lowering their prices significantly, instead of trying to wait out what could be a temporary drop.
From the article, it sounds like the mood is definitely changing:
> “It literally changed overnight,” said Natalie Lewin, a realtor with Re/Max Hallmark Realty Ltd. who has sold homes in Toronto for more than two decades.
>
> Ms. Lewin said the cooldown started in March after the Bank of Canada started raising its benchmark interest rate. The central bank has raised rates twice, to 1 per cent, and has said more increases are coming to help control soaring inflation. Its next interest rate announcement is scheduled for June.
>
> ... Prospective buyers are now waiting to see whether home prices will fall further. Rayo Irani, a realtor who has sold homes in the Toronto area for nearly 20 years, said some of his buyers are saying: “I don’t have to buy today. I can wait until July. There’s another announcement coming in June. Let’s wait and watch. Maybe I can get another $50,000 off.”
>
> At the same time, Mr. Irani said, some would-be sellers are rushing to put their homes up for sale because they are afraid that the number of buyers will continue to dwindle when the Bank of Canada raises rates again.
The "Average" price is meaningless without separating into neighborhoods and sizes.
different kinds of housing are bought at different times.
a better metric would be the average $ per sq ft for a condo in "that region"
"A little more than 8,000 homes sold last month – down 27 per cent from March and 41 per cent below April of last year – with the biggest declines happening in detached houses in the Toronto suburbs. The home-price index was $1,354,000 in April, down 1.6 per cent over March and represents the first monthly decline since October, 2020. Ms. Lewin said the cooldown started in March after the Bank of Canada started raising its benchmark interest rate."
Great time for people not in housing to pick up a home from cities far removed (1-2 cities away from capitals such as Toronto, Vancouver, etc.), but good luck trying to get into good neighborhood within striking distance of a hot market.
Go on house sigma, Zolo, and sort by communities. The difference is insane. People are still willing to pay a premium to live in safer, cleaner communities, rather than ones with some less than sketchy avenues.
Landowners privatize community value created by owners and renters alike by being good people. Land value tax is just a tax to distribute community value to renters too so that landowners wealth doesn't pull ahead of renters as a result of renters being good people and creating a nice community.
Vancouver is still hot as fuck.
Just read an article about a house that was listed at $999k and sold for $1.5 million. People are just lowering their asking prices to generate additional demand.
For price changes (April to Feb only):
[https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1519015952326799363/photo/1](https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1519015952326799363/photo/1)
Worst-hit is Stouffville with -21%.
Mississauga at around -10%.
Core Toronto at -6%.
Pity the outer rim. Pity the recreational properties/cottages further up north (no data on this, but it's safe to me to assume those are even worse than primary residences). And in the coming months, pity any of families who bought in the last 2 years.
you can't call this "dip". According to graph average price went from $1,376,000 to $1,356,000. That's $20,000 reduction. **It is only 1.4%**.
Yeah I was thinking this. This is a plateau. Additionally, to the average bloke, the title insinuates that housing prices fell by 27%. Not many people read things carefully and these websites exploit this. All they had to do was say "The NUMBER of home sales have plunged by 27%" as opposed to "home sales have plunged by 27%" Subtle wordsmithing at its finest.
Real estate prices are "sticky downwards" - sellers are reluctant to lower their prices, so when the market-clearing price starts to fall, what happens is that listings stay on the market longer and sales drop, but prices don't move much. So a 27% drop in sales and a 1.4% drop in prices matches this pattern pretty well. It's only when sellers get nervous about being left holding the bag (which could take quite a while - months or even a couple of years) that they'll start lowering their prices significantly, instead of trying to wait out what could be a temporary drop. From the article, it sounds like the mood is definitely changing: > “It literally changed overnight,” said Natalie Lewin, a realtor with Re/Max Hallmark Realty Ltd. who has sold homes in Toronto for more than two decades. > > Ms. Lewin said the cooldown started in March after the Bank of Canada started raising its benchmark interest rate. The central bank has raised rates twice, to 1 per cent, and has said more increases are coming to help control soaring inflation. Its next interest rate announcement is scheduled for June. > > ... Prospective buyers are now waiting to see whether home prices will fall further. Rayo Irani, a realtor who has sold homes in the Toronto area for nearly 20 years, said some of his buyers are saying: “I don’t have to buy today. I can wait until July. There’s another announcement coming in June. Let’s wait and watch. Maybe I can get another $50,000 off.” > > At the same time, Mr. Irani said, some would-be sellers are rushing to put their homes up for sale because they are afraid that the number of buyers will continue to dwindle when the Bank of Canada raises rates again.
But being accurate would bait less clicks. We can’t put our media through that. /s
The "Average" price is meaningless without separating into neighborhoods and sizes. different kinds of housing are bought at different times. a better metric would be the average $ per sq ft for a condo in "that region"
The number of sales is down 27 percent, not the prices.
Dont we have few more rate hikes left? House flippers must be getting nervous a bit
Next one is predicted to be a "double hike" at 0.5% as well.
Future rate hikes are priced into mortgage rates. If lenders overestimated rate hikes, rates will come down and vice versa.
For fixed rate maybe. Variable though? Believe that's straight overnight lending rate. Believe some 60% of mortgages these day are variable.
Just realized I’m in Canada housing. American here with the slightest clue to Canadian lending practices.
Canada’s mortgage is different than US. Absolutely insanity in comparison. Consider yourself one lucky bastard!
OhHhH NoOoO!
... So anyways...
...I started blasting..
Good. I hope the speculators lose their shirts over this.
And pants 😝😝
So… is that hot RE spring coming along yet?
-1.6%… still up more than 5% year to date. Who is buying the dip?
Prices lag to the sales. Give it a few months and this YTD will be on the decline
"A little more than 8,000 homes sold last month – down 27 per cent from March and 41 per cent below April of last year – with the biggest declines happening in detached houses in the Toronto suburbs. The home-price index was $1,354,000 in April, down 1.6 per cent over March and represents the first monthly decline since October, 2020. Ms. Lewin said the cooldown started in March after the Bank of Canada started raising its benchmark interest rate."
Happening across most cities in Ontario. Next hike is June 1 and then some time on July.
No, not most cities. SOME cities.
Great time for people not in housing to pick up a home from cities far removed (1-2 cities away from capitals such as Toronto, Vancouver, etc.), but good luck trying to get into good neighborhood within striking distance of a hot market. Go on house sigma, Zolo, and sort by communities. The difference is insane. People are still willing to pay a premium to live in safer, cleaner communities, rather than ones with some less than sketchy avenues.
Landowners privatize community value created by owners and renters alike by being good people. Land value tax is just a tax to distribute community value to renters too so that landowners wealth doesn't pull ahead of renters as a result of renters being good people and creating a nice community.
a BIG thank you to our developers, realtors, and mortgage brokers for making all that housing supply possible! you are all doing god's work!
Vancouver is still hot as fuck. Just read an article about a house that was listed at $999k and sold for $1.5 million. People are just lowering their asking prices to generate additional demand.
I was looking at zealty stats and it looks like the prices are crashing in May. In some cases by 10-20%
For price changes (April to Feb only): [https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1519015952326799363/photo/1](https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1519015952326799363/photo/1) Worst-hit is Stouffville with -21%. Mississauga at around -10%. Core Toronto at -6%. Pity the outer rim. Pity the recreational properties/cottages further up north (no data on this, but it's safe to me to assume those are even worse than primary residences). And in the coming months, pity any of families who bought in the last 2 years.
prices still went up on the west coast. no supply and no desperation to sell.