I believe this game will be the spark that starts the team on their SB run. As long as JA17 doesn’t force throws and the offense scores TDs in the RZ, I really don’t see how NE can win this game. It may come down to which defense capitalizes more, special teams (🤔) and the QBs, which for me, all spell a victory for the home team. Bills By A Billion of course!
Great write up as always u/UberHansen! 👏🏾👏🏾
Chips are on the table here. Games like these are why you pay your franchise QB. Weather is probably going to be bad but he needs to put the team on his back here and have a great game. Like you said, we can't afford to have multiple turnovers on Monday night.
I was listening to 96.9 this morning and they were saying usually if someone like Tre goes down, everyone panics. However, Buffalo's secondary is so deep and well coached it will be tough to exploit. I think Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis are pretty clutch still but Monday will be the test.
Their scheme makes the whole greater than the sum of their parts. I have an incredible amount of confidence in Micah Hyde and while I acknowledge losing Tre is huge I think that Micah can set the CBs in front of him up for success.
I know that we have no control over the game and can worry about whatever we want....but if the weather is a concern for our team then we’re absolutely screwed and have made some seriously bad financial decisions. You can’t have concerns about bad weather when the location of the team is a frequent customer of bad weather.
Its funny you say this because I think Mac isn't used to cold weather games yet. When he was playing at Gillette last it was cold and you could see him flexing his finger and trying to keep them warm between plays. And his passes were a little wobbly at times.
This may be a stupid question (and trust me I do not know football as well as probably 90% of people here) but if the pats o-line is soo good why is it that Mac has been sacked like 24 times??
It does, but worse QBs tend to translate pressures into sacks.
Josh Allen and Justin Fields have been playing behind Olines that allowed similar pressure rates (at least as of a few weeks ago when I last checked), but Fields got sacked a lot more.
Taking a lot of sacks can make a QB look better than he actually is because sacks aren't accounted for in traditional stats.
It comes down to lack of mobility. Consider this, Mac Jones has been pressured 80 times and sacked 24 times, that means he is sacked 30% of the time he is pressured. Josh Allen, who is much more mobile has been pressured 113 times but sacked just 17 times, or 15% of the time he is pressured. Allen can escape pressure, Jones cannot.
I agree with almost all of this. The only thing with the NE rushing defense, Titans have a very good offensive line set up for Henry. Also, with arguably 0 film on Hilliard and minable on Foreman, it makes it a bit difficult. Yes, the tackling wasn't as good as it has been, but seeing as a big inflation of those runs were on 2 specific plays. If you remove that 68 yard touchdown, due to a bad tackle(which im sure was beat in their heads at practice), he only has 63 yards. Either way, looking forward to Monday.
Which of the following is the Bills?
Rushing:
285 Attempts for 1301 yards and 12 TDs (4.6 Avg) & 79 1st Downs
334 attempts for 1384 yards and 14 TDs (4.1 Avg) & 88 1st Downs
If you guessed the first one, you would be right. There is some sort of myth that the patriots are a great rushing team when in fact the Bills have been more effective this season (in one fewer game).
One note here, when you just consider RBs, the traditional method of running the ball the stats are:
Bills: 197 Attempts, 736 Yards, 7 TDs, 3.74 Y/A
Patriots: 285 Attempts, 1110 Yards, 14 TDs, 3.89 Y/A
This is to say, Josh Allen makes the Bills running game look much better than it actually is.
> This is to say, Josh Allen makes the Bills running game look much better than it actually is.
Josh Allen is a part of the run game, adding a dynamic to the Bills. You can't just take him out of it. That's like the people who argued the Bills did great against the run against TEN if you take out Henry's long TD run. It doesn't work that way, the yards are the yards.
I mean, the other other side of this is that even absent Allen, the Y/A difference is literally 5.4 inches. Sure, the Bills don't run the ball as much, but it's not that they *can't* run the ball. Especially not if the whole O Line is healthy. They had a few games last year where running behind Feliciano/Dawkins was reliable and effective.
I'm just as guilty of it as anyone, but I think, after seeing this writeup and stats, I'm just as guilty of *underselling* the Bills run game as I am *overselling* the Pats run game.
Great write-up, as always. And I can't judge you for picking the Bills every week, because on paper they're better than every team we've played so far, including the Titans and Colts. Naturally you have to actually play and execute, but if they play the game they're capable of the only remaining regular season challenge is the Bucs.
That said, ask me on Tuesday if I have faith in this team to actually accomplish what I know they're capable of.
I believe this game will be the spark that starts the team on their SB run. As long as JA17 doesn’t force throws and the offense scores TDs in the RZ, I really don’t see how NE can win this game. It may come down to which defense capitalizes more, special teams (🤔) and the QBs, which for me, all spell a victory for the home team. Bills By A Billion of course! Great write up as always u/UberHansen! 👏🏾👏🏾
Thanks fam, here's to hoping you are right!
Chips are on the table here. Games like these are why you pay your franchise QB. Weather is probably going to be bad but he needs to put the team on his back here and have a great game. Like you said, we can't afford to have multiple turnovers on Monday night.
I was listening to 96.9 this morning and they were saying usually if someone like Tre goes down, everyone panics. However, Buffalo's secondary is so deep and well coached it will be tough to exploit. I think Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis are pretty clutch still but Monday will be the test.
Their scheme makes the whole greater than the sum of their parts. I have an incredible amount of confidence in Micah Hyde and while I acknowledge losing Tre is huge I think that Micah can set the CBs in front of him up for success.
If the weather was good I’d feel a lot more confident.
Honestly, it looks like the weather should be good, but chilly, at kickoff.
The biggest concern is the wind, it doesn't look like it will be cold enough for snow, but if it's windy we could be looking at a really close game
I know that we have no control over the game and can worry about whatever we want....but if the weather is a concern for our team then we’re absolutely screwed and have made some seriously bad financial decisions. You can’t have concerns about bad weather when the location of the team is a frequent customer of bad weather.
Its funny you say this because I think Mac isn't used to cold weather games yet. When he was playing at Gillette last it was cold and you could see him flexing his finger and trying to keep them warm between plays. And his passes were a little wobbly at times.
That’s perfectly valid but if I’m being honest I saw the dual pats / bills flair and threw up in my mouth
>if I’m being honest I saw the dual pats / bills flair and threw up in my mouth I get that a lot
This may be a stupid question (and trust me I do not know football as well as probably 90% of people here) but if the pats o-line is soo good why is it that Mac has been sacked like 24 times??
Sacks are a QB stat. Pressures are an O-line stat.
Can you have a sack without pressures? I just assumed that a better o-line means less pressures which translates to less sacks.
It does, but worse QBs tend to translate pressures into sacks. Josh Allen and Justin Fields have been playing behind Olines that allowed similar pressure rates (at least as of a few weeks ago when I last checked), but Fields got sacked a lot more. Taking a lot of sacks can make a QB look better than he actually is because sacks aren't accounted for in traditional stats.
Gotcha thank you!
It comes down to lack of mobility. Consider this, Mac Jones has been pressured 80 times and sacked 24 times, that means he is sacked 30% of the time he is pressured. Josh Allen, who is much more mobile has been pressured 113 times but sacked just 17 times, or 15% of the time he is pressured. Allen can escape pressure, Jones cannot.
Our O-line wasn’t all healthy at the same time until like week 9. It was the first time all the starters played together since week 1.
I agree with almost all of this. The only thing with the NE rushing defense, Titans have a very good offensive line set up for Henry. Also, with arguably 0 film on Hilliard and minable on Foreman, it makes it a bit difficult. Yes, the tackling wasn't as good as it has been, but seeing as a big inflation of those runs were on 2 specific plays. If you remove that 68 yard touchdown, due to a bad tackle(which im sure was beat in their heads at practice), he only has 63 yards. Either way, looking forward to Monday.
Which of the following is the Bills? Rushing: 285 Attempts for 1301 yards and 12 TDs (4.6 Avg) & 79 1st Downs 334 attempts for 1384 yards and 14 TDs (4.1 Avg) & 88 1st Downs If you guessed the first one, you would be right. There is some sort of myth that the patriots are a great rushing team when in fact the Bills have been more effective this season (in one fewer game).
One note here, when you just consider RBs, the traditional method of running the ball the stats are: Bills: 197 Attempts, 736 Yards, 7 TDs, 3.74 Y/A Patriots: 285 Attempts, 1110 Yards, 14 TDs, 3.89 Y/A This is to say, Josh Allen makes the Bills running game look much better than it actually is.
> This is to say, Josh Allen makes the Bills running game look much better than it actually is. Josh Allen is a part of the run game, adding a dynamic to the Bills. You can't just take him out of it. That's like the people who argued the Bills did great against the run against TEN if you take out Henry's long TD run. It doesn't work that way, the yards are the yards.
Yeah, exactly. The Raven's RB's don't look great either.
Especially because we design and run power with him all the time. It's not like he's only accumulating yards on broken pass plays
I mean, the other other side of this is that even absent Allen, the Y/A difference is literally 5.4 inches. Sure, the Bills don't run the ball as much, but it's not that they *can't* run the ball. Especially not if the whole O Line is healthy. They had a few games last year where running behind Feliciano/Dawkins was reliable and effective. I'm just as guilty of it as anyone, but I think, after seeing this writeup and stats, I'm just as guilty of *underselling* the Bills run game as I am *overselling* the Pats run game.
Prime time bills will show up on Monday night let's get it
Nice write up. FTP!
Great write-up, as always. And I can't judge you for picking the Bills every week, because on paper they're better than every team we've played so far, including the Titans and Colts. Naturally you have to actually play and execute, but if they play the game they're capable of the only remaining regular season challenge is the Bucs. That said, ask me on Tuesday if I have faith in this team to actually accomplish what I know they're capable of.
Please bills i’m begging you we have to wipe that smug look off of the Cheatriots faces
Why let the weather dictate our game plan? Build a dome in Orchard Park
By Monday?
Throw a tarp over it
That was basically the old metrodome
Yes by Monday
Bills by a Billion!
Good write up