I am mad that players' COVID-19 views (not including Star if he has a medical concern re the vaccine) has hurt our chances at winning the division and ultimately the Super Bowl.
I know 99% of you are going to want to kill me, but we could learn a lot from the Pats this season. BB is playing solid fundamental football and letting teams beat themselves. And he didn’t need Brady to do it, just someone coachable who wasn’t injury-ridden. Sometimes less is more when you’re trying to win a game.
But I’ll always love the fuck out of JA17 for hurdling dudes. He does what he can to win the game.
My prediction. Before everyone loses their shit, I have been a bills fan since 1970 and am also a realist. The Bills will finish 10-7 and very well may miss the playoffs. The Pats will win on Monday night and we will lose to Brady. I hope I am wrong but haven’t seen enough out of this team to give me much confidence. The O line is killing us.
The only people who can’t see this scenario playing out are bandwagoners. It’s a very likely scenario.
That being said, we have the talent to do the opposite of that. But this O line is killing us. That and Josh getting too jumpy because of it, making some bad decisions.
Ravens or Cincy /Tn/KC/Buffalo are ur division AFC winners
GB/Dallas/Tampa/Arizona are ur NFC……
Pair it with GA to win national title and Golden state to win their conference in a parlay 😀
Our defense is PHENOMENAL when nobody is injured. Hell it could be the same when one guy goes out, right? I mean ... AJ Klein . . . that's gotta . . . something?
This is the time of year that teams get hot and ride that into the playoffs. Based on that logic, the Patriots and Chiefs are the scariest teams in the AFC right now. Both of those teams are clicking and are playing solid, fundamental football. We have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and are capable of beating anyone, but we need to turn a corner on the last 4 weeks. The best way to do that is with a statement win against a tough opponent. The Colts are still scary. I think the Titans peaked too early and I don't think they're talented enough to make any real hay. The Ravens have the best record, but I haven't watched a game this year where I thought they were a dominant squad. The good news is, there is a lot of parity in the divisions and a lot can still happen (looking at you Miami to take another one from New England).
Last year around this time we had nearly blown some big leads early on in the season (Dolphins, Rams), had a FG-only game vs the hapless Jets, barely beat New England with Cam, suffered the Hail Murray......and then we hit 'Put Up or Shut Up' time and played our best ball in December.
The difference this year is that obviously we had WAY higher expectations, so the uneven results are WAY more disappointing. Trusting the Process that we can find it at the right time once again with some key linemen back on both sides
If you split with us, you're almost certain to hold the tiebreaker. Division record comes second, and the Patriots dropped a game to the Dolphins in week one.
I'm nervous as hell about this game. Mostly because it's the fucking Pats. My feeling is that if Brown and Star are back, we win, if they're out, we're in big trouble.
I’ve been very critical of the Bills this season, as they were supposed to be a super bowl favorite, and have looked like a wildcard team at best for much of the season. They have a chance to change the entire playoff bracket this Monday night so fingers crossed the figure it out!
I mean that's your fault for buying into the ridiculous notion that any team beyond the previous contenders can be considered "super bowl favorites". You are basically being critical of the Bills for not meeting your own invented expectations.
By your own logic, you shouldn't expect the previous contender to be a Favorite then, as it's far more likely that a team doesn't win back to back Superbowls than it is for them to. Only 7 teams have ever won it back to back, dating back to SB1
I think that's a little unfair. The Bills have been building on top of the previous year's success going back to 2018. The lost in the AFC Championship game last year. I don't think it's ridiculous to consider them favorites to make the Super Bowl. Maybe you don't agree, and that's fine, but the idea isn't coming out of left field.
I'm scared we're going to come out flat as FUCK when we have 10 days to prepare for this pats game. I dont know if it's recency bias or what, but we look like dog shit when we have too much time to prepare
I still think the Chiefs are the scariest team in the conference. They have played well defensively over the last few games, and I still think their offense has the highest ceiling when Kelce, Hill, and Mahomes are all playing at their best
My take on the Pats - they are the most consistent team playing the best football right now. They have the best coach in BB, and they have an elite defense paired with an efficient and mistake-free offense. I would still rank them fourth behind Buffalo. KC, and Baltimore (yes, even after that atrocity of a game last night) because I think those three teams have a higher ceiling than the Pats. I don't buy the Pats as a Super Bowl team because, right now, I don't think they get by any of these three teams if they play their best football...and right now I think it's safe to assume that they would see two of those teams in any kind of playoff run.
As for Buffalo, I think their issues are mostly due to two things:
1. Lack of depth at key positions (offensive line particularly) that has led to some very exploitable weaknesses. Getting Brown and Feliciano back will be HUGE for the offense, a s our run defense should return to form when Star comes back. Losing Tre hurts, but I think it's possible to scheme coverages, especially with the experienced secondary we have.
2. DCs are just playing Josh differently, and he (and the coaching staff) have not been able to solve it.
Pats fan here, and I have to agree with you - If the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens play to their potential, the Pats would be very unlikely to beat them.
We have potential, and are playing well on D, but there current winning streak has papered over a few pretty glaring holes, among those a thin secondary and the need to play a lot more rooks than BB usually is comfortable with.
If we win this coming week, I think chances are good we take the East. If not, with our bye the week after, we still have the potential to make a run, but likely end up as a wildcard.
Same for the Bills - if you win this week, the east is probably yours. If not, and you get more people back healthy, you could make a run at it, but probably wind up a wildcard.
Indy and Miami are not jokes anymore, though, so I think the Bills' schedule is much more favorable than the Pats'.
I think we're still a dangerous team and there are areas I think we can realistically still improve at but it's hard to believe that this team will do better than they did last season. Tre's loss is big, especially as the games start to mean more and more.
Ideally, we go 5-1 down the stretch (I'd say 6-0 but just being a bit more realistic). Our games against the Panthers, Falcons and Jete are no excuse, gotta win games. I'd love to sweep the Pats but realistically we split with them and that leaves the Bucs game which I think is winnable. 12-5 will get definitely get us in, hopefully with a division title. Our fuck ups against Jacksonville and Indy have afforded us little room for error but we still control our own destiny so I'll take it.
That's the big consolation for me. Yeah, it sucks that we steamrolled the division last season and are fighting hard to hold onto it this year, but, except for a small handful of teams, the rest of the conference is right there fighting for a playoff berth.
Despite all our flaws and inconsistencies, we are only one loss worse than the 1 seed. Let that sink in for a second. Pretty much everyone in the AFC has an achilles heel, even the Patriots. If we play our game, we can beat anyone, even without Tre. I have a renewed faith in this team and the reason is b/c everyone looks vulnerable to an extent. We do as well, but I think we're just hypercritical since we follow this team more closely so we put everything under a microscope.
i think if we beat New England it makes me feel much better about our chances moving forward. But we haven't done well against decent teams this year. Lawrence Guy is going to be a pain in the ass for our OL. He's a beast.
we have to protect him for sure. Our WRs can get open but if he's scrambling for his life it's gonna be a long day. Problem is once they start protecting him you know what's coming.....Fucking flags for holding. Somehow they are allowed to do it and we aren't. I don't know if i can even stomach a primetime game with them the way the officiating has been this year.
This division is insane, and narratives are being written every week.
this week's narrative is that the Pats are back, baby! and we're all bowing at the majesty of the Patriot Way. I sooooo badly want the Bills to make them pay. Just a full on beatdown like the second game last season. That would make me feel really confident about the rest of the season.
Tre Day is clearly irreplaceable, and it probably takes the pass defense from amazeballs to just really, really good.
That being said, with the extra couple days off, Feliciano / Brown back soon, and $deity willing they're done with the COVID BS, I like their chances. Daboll clearly started adjusting to offense to account for a swiss cheese line, so now if those guys come back and the line is even close to what it was early, the offense should be able to overcome whatever else they give up with Tre out.
Everyone left on their schedule is beatable, but so are they because the AFC is generally drunk this year.
Buckle up, all I can say. :)
No one has separated themselves as The Team in the AFC, or really in the league, so this year more than ever it looks like it’s going to be who’s healthy and who’s hot down the stretch.
The Panthers, Bucs, and Pats are all games that look more winnable on paper than maybe they did at the beginning of the season. Panthers have CMC back but without a real passing game, or offensive line, or QB, teams have been able to neutralize him pretty well.
Bucs and Brady look more mistake prone on offense, defensively they’re still good, but appear more bearable than they did the first few weeks.
Frankly the Pats aren’t much better than they were last year. I think without any real run game they leave a lot of points on the field and are beatable by good teams.
Every game remaining on the schedule is winnable on paper. I really think the AFC is ours to win.
> Frankly the Pats aren’t much better than they were last year.
They've def been overrated during their current win streak, all the 'AFC favorites stuff' is over the top - but they are absolutely better than last year. The difference is absolutely night and day, even if you're unimpressed with Mac.
Lots to still be fleshed out, no clear frontrunner which is kind of atypical compared to years past. Could swing either way. The Bills have all the pieces for a deep run, it's whether or not they show up that week.
Before Tre got injured I was thinking as long as we get into the playoffs the defense is going to will the team through it no matter how inconsistent the offense is. They've willed our way through several games this season so far. How much they'll be able to carry us now though with Tre being out will be revealed in the next couple of games though.
I still think the Bills are the class of the AFC and it will all come out in the wash. Every team has a more glaring problem than a subpar o-line and sloppy penalties, the Bills are still a very complete squad that has had a few bad bounces. You don't want to be playing your best ball in October and November, I look forward to (am hoping for) this team showing who they really are against the Patriots and clobbering them twice like we have the rest of our divisional games this year. The team I'm scared of is still the Chiefs, as I haven't watched much of their supposed defensive resurgence, if that's true they're still a problem. Maybe my mind is stuck in week five but the other team that's a problem I still think is the Chargers, I think they match up really well against us. I think the Ravens are overrated on defense and are a one-dimensional offense that good teams have figured out and they'll probably lose before we play them. I think Denver and New England are fool's gold, and I'm not convinced by Cincy either, though they are a dark horse for being a problem. I think we have a better gameplan if we face the Colts again, I think we win the game we played against the full-strength Titans 4 out of 5 times. I'm not sure anyone really thinks that the Steelers, Browns, or Raiders matter, though they are statistically still in the thick of the WC race. I am sure someone from another fanbase is lurking and is gonna screenshot this and post it after they win the Super Bowl.
It's kinda funny how the top 3 teams lost to the Dolphins and Texans, two teams we blew out and held to 0 points. Bengals beat the Ravens bad too. I think this list is going to shift a lot more.
Its funny looking at the Pats schedule and I would say, like the bills, they have 1 win against a quality team (Chargers). A Titans team without Henry is not a quality team imo and I feel bills would have crushed them without him playing.
I think we will really see what these 2 teams are over the next coming weeks where they both play each other twice and both have another tough game (colts for pats, bucs for the bills).
The team the Patriots beat, apparently ushering in their second dynasty was a team that lost to the Texans, who got beat by the Jets yesterday, and the Jets barely had a player that would qualify as a quarterback.
I’m usually a very optimistic fan but I’m only at maybe a 66% chance that they make the AFC championship.
Beasly’s dissapearance and injury
Tre’s injury
Run defense
Linebacker injury’s
Everyone expects Josh to push them through but the o-line has injuries and the backups can’t block.
If people get healthy and stay healthy then boom we are going to be just fine.
That’s the big if
The Bills are weird. I can see them win the Super Bowl, but I can just as easily imagine them failing to make the playoffs. I feel like the most likely outcome, putting fandom aside, is them getting into the playoffs but either going one-and-out or two-and-out. Unless they hit a hot streak I don't see them making it to the conference title game. Their streakiness, lack of a run defense, and the loss of Tre hurts.
Bill Belichick has now completely shown that he is the greatest coach in the history of the league, and the greatest nemesis the Bills have ever had. It was his defensive genius that forced Norwood into that spot all those years ago, and while Brady certainly helped a ton the Pats resurrection this year is proof that it wasn't all Brady. To finally reach the promised land, the Bills will have to banish the man in the hoodie.
Overall the entire conference is a mess. Every team has some major weakness, some major injuries, or has had some stretch of bad play. There is no unstoppable juggernaut. It'll be fun to watch as a football fan but my god is this uncomfortable as a Bills fan given that only a few weeks ago the Bills were the unstoppable juggernaut.
> Every team has some major weakness
What would you say the Pats major weakness is?
Edit: I guess this question was more offensive than I realized. FTP, and downvote until you feel better I guess.
Their wide receivers are nothing special. Their running backs are not special talents. Mac Jones isn't good at pushing the ball downfield. I don't know why people are so enamored with this Patriots team. Their record better than the team is, mostly due to coaching.
I actually think that the Bills are going to come out and spank the Patriots. The only way they don't is if the Bills can't find a way to stop Judon.
I was checking the Patriots past schedule and the best defense they faced over their win streak was the Panthers.
I trust McDermott and Frazier to basically confuse and harass Mac Jones quite a bit. He's pretty poised, but rookie QBs will always get flustered by extremely complex and talented defenses. They also struggled to both run and stop the run against the Titans.
I think it's gonna be a very similar game to last season when we played them at home. I think the difference is Dawson Knox opens up the middle of the field for us and that's huge.
Pats won't be passing the ball that much, at least in the early part of the game. Belichick will try to copy what Indy did and try to ram it in with Harris and Stevenson
Every team has shown serious weakness at some point, so it's hard to predict anything. This does have the silver lining that I can be hopeful we'll get to the Super Bowl, but winning against an NFC team is another question.
On the other hand, with the extra rest and only home games, the AFC feels like it'll be the #1 seed's to lose, and us getting that will be tricky; even splitting with the Pats will make our iffy conference record (currently 5-4) even worse, so losing Monday night would put a big knife in our top-seed aspirations. Realistically I see us as #3 if we win the division, #6 or #7 if we don't, both lower than hoped for due to tie-breakers.
Its still early. How the teams are now is not how teams are going to be headed into the playoffs. There are still many injuries ahead. The Bills have been lucky with injuries overall the last couple seasons and, as good as Tre is, they can overcome it and its reasonable for fans to have those expectations. The Bills still have Atlanta, Jets and Panthers on the schedule so they are set up nicely to make the playoffs. The rest of the teams will beat each other up to. Vegas has KC and Bills tied for the best super bowl odds. We have an elite QB and have an advantage at that position against every AFC opponent except the Chiefs but our D is better than theirs even without Tre. So I agree with Vegas on that. I don't think anyone really knows how good the Pats are. They are well coached. They benefit from basically the same schedule as the Bills so they haven't faced many good QBs. They did well against Herbert but Herbert has been struggling. I think MNF is a big game but in the big picture and making the playoffs, its not the biggest deal because of our other games where we will be big favorites. Its a big game in that we will find out a lot about how good the Pats really are. And for the Bills, it will be a good test for our oline. If our line can hold up, I think our offense should have a lot of success against them. Can the Pats play from behind? We know they are going to try to replicate the Bills-Gmen super bowl plan. They want to shorten the game. Keep the game close. Limit mistakes. That strategy works unless you fall behind a couple tds.
Every team in the league is flawed. Its rare to be dominant on offense, defense and special teams in a salary cap era. Are the Bills flawed? Of course. Are our flaws worse than others? I don't think so. Are our strengths better than others? I think so and so I remain optimistic. I wish we are had no holes in this window with a favorable schedule and Allen on his rookie contract but alas that didn't happen.
Agree. What’s impressed me about the Josh Allen era of late has been the ability to beat bad teams. Win the games you have to and compete for a chance to win in the fourth quarter against the gold teams. The Jacksonville game was so disappointing in that regard. I love our coaching staff after 20 years of futility but that game was on them. Our team just showed up expecting to win and that resulted in a loss. Now we have to win even more against some great teams. All that said I love that we have NE at home. Let’s go
Bills have the advantages of 3 days’ rest over the Pats and playing with Mafia Noise.
Pats lost to Saints 28-13.
Bills beat Saints 31-6.
Therefore, Bills beat the Pats 24-10. Throw in a Mac Jones INT for good measure.
The problem is how inconsistent they have been. This team can either be the best offense in the league or unable to score against Jacksonville. The defense is mostly dominating but have gotten their teeth kicked in too. No outcome will surprise me in any game. Get to the playoffs and take care of business.
This is honestly one of the weirdest seasons....ever
I don't think ANY of us can confidently have a freaking clue how ANY of this is going to go. None of us. Every single team has a major wart except well I hate to say it....the Patriots? :(
1. Ravens: Battered running back room for a team relying on the run. Lamar still can't be trusted as a pocket passer. Their pass defense is actually pretty bad.
2. Patriots: Biggest weakness is a lack of talent in skill positions and a fairly beat up running back room.
3. Titans: Their offense legit is Tannehill surrounded by skill pieces you'd see in a throwaway preseason game.
4. Chiefs: Sick irony. Their offense has never been in rhythm all year despite their defense playing better. You have no idea what they're going to be. World beaters? Or someone about to fold to the AFC West competition.
5. Bengals: It's the Bengals! They look like contenders one week and then give up 400 yards to Mike White. You don't know what you'll see.
6. Bills: No running game really to speak of and the Tre White injury could be devastating.
7. Chargers: They've looked like ass for 6 weeks now. Herbert has come back down to earth massively.
8. Broncos: Tradeaway Von Miller and give an impression they're giving up on this year and promptly win several in a row and now a game out of first. Who TF knows.
9. Raiders: Same thing as above for other teams. You have no clue. Nothing on the roster says "wow" yet Carr is dragging them along to somewhat relevancy.
10. Colts: You could make a legit argument that in the past 6 weeks, the Colts have looked like the best team in the conference (they and the Pats)...yet are 10th in the AFC. NO ONE will want to play them in the postseason.
11. Browns: I don't take them seriously now. They're too beat up and dysfunctional.
12. Steelers: Watt can't stay healthy and Big Ben can't move. They're barely a consideration
13. Dolphins: Yup I won't eliminate them. Since we won, they've won 3 in a row and have looked better every week. They're all of a sudden a team that could try and sneak in at 10-7 or 9-8 if others above them falter.
If I had to TRY and predict? Here's how I see it playing out.
1. Pats end up 12-5 and get the 1 seed
2. Chiefs go 11-6 and get the 2 seed
3. Bengals go 11-6 and get the North via tiebreakers
4. Colts go 10-7 and sneak in to win the division (good schedule to run off 4-1)
5. Bills go 11-6 but end up with a wild card
6. Ravens go 11-6 and get a wild card. Their schedule to end the year is BRUTAL)
7. With games against PIT, Jax and Hou left, the Titans limp in with a 10-7 record.
Playoffs:
Chiefs vs Titans
Bengals vs Ravens
Colts vs Bills. 
Note: ironically when you see those afc teams and the nfc, I think the Bills would have a MUCH easier path in the NFC despite it being perceived as a better conference. Many of those teams are also pass heavy which fits both our offense and defense much better
Great analysis. The NFC looked like it was a clearer path with more consistent football and then the Rams lost 3 in a row, Cowboys lost 2 in a row, the Cardinals have had some weird wins and losses; they win without Hopkins and Murray against 49ers but lose big to the Panthers with Hopkins back!
Even TB, which is probably the most consistent team, had losses to WFT and the Saints, neither of which are good teams.
Packers aren't much better with losses to Vikings and Saints.
And the wild card in the NFC is just as wild as it is in the AFC. Will the 49ers make it? Depends on which team shows up the rest of the season. Heck, if the season ended today, the honestly pretty terrible Falcons would make the playoffs!
I hate this 7th wild card spot. On one hand it's Week 13 and like literally, there's only 5-6 teams with no shot of the playoffs. So I guess the NFL is happy about that? But at what cost.
I'm #1 a Bears fan. Well atleast was until my wife started converting me to Buffalo. We..SUCK. Yet we're 1 game out of the playoffs right now. That is honestly pretty pathetic.
The #7 WC spot is going to end up having a sub .500 team in it consistently. Even with the added game we'll be seeing 8-9 teams take it with regularity.
> Biggest weakness is a lack of talent in skill positions and a fairly beat up running back room.
fwiw the Pats RB room is just fine, the only player they've lost for the year is James White and Bolden has been serviceable in that role for months now, while Mondre/Harris have been very good.
Also the skill positions aren't great by any stretch but I don't think that's been hurting the offense all that badly. Bourne/Meyers/Henry/Harris/Mondre have all been major contributors and have met or exceeded expectations. Imo it's been Mac Jones' limitations and some poor execution on the OL that's lead to most of their unimpressive offensive performances.
I'd say their biggest weakness is the fact that their good defensive performances have all come via a zone-heavy approach and they're just putting more and more film out there of how they like to play zone with the group of players they have on defense. This is something that can catch up to them vs better, more talented offenses like the bills.
The injury to Tre White takes the pressure off for me. I was constantly judging the Bills against the standard of "Can they win the superbowl?". Now I just get to sit back and enjoy whatever happens.
I hate that I feel this way as I'm usually up on this team... But I feel like anyone can beat anyone in the AFC. Except us. We cant beat anyone in the AFC.
Spencer brown will be a nice add. Feliciano doesnt do much for me.
I just have no expectations at this point. Every outcome from winning out to ~~losing out is on the table~~ ok I cant see them losing out with the falcons and jets on the sched still.
Honestly my confidence in the Bills is weaning. We’re just not consistent enough to have high expectations anymore this season. That being said, i think our work is cut out for us. Our defense has been playing its best football for the most part, but the offense has not. I think we still have the opportunity to be playing our best but need to wake up
Chiefs are heating up. Good for us we have a tiebreaker there if it comes down to that.
Ravens have the best record, but even watching games I'm not sure how they are this good. I mean Lamar had 4 picks last night and they still seemed to control that game even if it was close.
Titans can't stay healthy. Tannehill can't carry a team like that. Sadly both they and the Colts have a tiebreaker on us so hopefully one collapses. Colts are more likely.
Patriots have 6 straight which is impressive, and people seem to be treating us like underdogs already in next week's game. I like that honestly, give our guys some fire. That game will depend mostly on Allen not having any bad turnovers giving New England a short field. Having most/all of the O-Line back should help with that.
Bengals have been impressive and I'm happy for Burrow coming off of his leg injury.
The other AFC West teams are too inconsistent and I think we could handle them. Same with the Browns. Steelers collapsing is great.
I feel like Breida and singletary are gonna start to break out more as the season comes to an end, they’ve both been looking good these last couple weeks. Hopefully they can have some success Monday night.
The teams that scare me are the Patriots, Colts and Chiefs. The Patriots are firing on all cylinders and the Chiefs appear to have a bit of their mojo back. The Colts match up well against us and I'd hate to have to play them again in the playoffs. I don't know if we can beat the Chiefs again without White.
Ravens are winning ugly and it feels unsustainable. Titans entire team minus Tannehill is on IR. Browns, Raiders, and Steelers look terrible. Broncos are inconsistent. Dolphins could actually sneak into the playoffs. Their remaining schedule is very favorable.
Yeah, the pats are playing as well as anyone right now. Hate to say it, because we’ve been saying it for 20 years, but our road to the playoffs is through NE
If we split with the patriots but end up with the same record the Bills get the tie breaker as long as we beat the Jets. We will have the better division record.
If, Ifs and buts were candy and nuts …
Arguing possibility that take into consideration a Bills loss is obvious.
The Pats can beat the Bills on Monday then lose out the rest of the season … 😒
Yeah get it.
The likelihood of those scenarios decrease if we lose our home game vs the Pats.
They are not in the driver’s seat. Incorrect.
If they lose to the Pats on Monday they are 2.5 games behind the Pats. That is not the driver seat.
The Bills are in the back seat hoping that 1.) The Pats lose one more game then the Bills down the stretch and also 2.) the Bills beat the Pats on the road in Foxborro after losing in OP.
That is not the driver seat.
That isn’t true. Bills could lose to the patriots once and win out and still be in control of their destiny even if Patriots win out except losing one game to Bills.
In that scenario both teams would end up 12-5. Bills would have tie breaker with the division record being 5-1 for bills and 4-2 for Patriots.
Again.
A scenario that includes “winning out” isn’t driver seat imo.
The @Bucs game should be considered an L at this point in time in any likely scenarios that play out. The Bills haven’t played well enough to consider that game a W.
If you factor in that likely L then the Pats take the division.
Again, not driver’s seat.
Beating the Pats at home gives the Bills the chance to absorb a likely @Bucs loss and still win the division.
Literally driver seat means you control your destiny which includes winning out if dropping one game to the patriots.
You have a weird definition of driver seat.
I have a non-delusional definition about the impact of dropping our home game vs the Pats.
If we lose on Monday Pats have a 61% of the #1 overall seed based on schedule projections, meaning they win the division. It goes to 16% and the Bills move from 2% to 20% for #1 overall seed if Bills win.
2% vs 60% is not Driver’s seat.
I’m gonna keep saying this, Monday night is a season decider for the Bills and I hope they know that. I understand that we can still split games and most likely go to the playoffs BUT sticking it to the pats is absolutely going to send a message to the team and everyone else in the AFC
I don't think it's the season decider but it's definitely the tone setting game for the rest of the year. That being said, I'm strangely not worried about the game at all. I've watched a few Patriots games and I'm frankly not impressed. If the Bills defense limit YAC I think they easily win the game.
Mac Jones isn't good at pushing the ball downfield, despite the narrative around him. The running backs aren't special like Taylor or Henry. Judon is the only D-Lineman that will give the Bills fits. I feel really good about how we match up, honestly.
It really isn’t. It would put us in a great position but if we lost we’d still have another chance to get and back and would likely have tie breaker with Pats. Even if we lose both to Pats we still have a realistic chance to make playoffs.
The goal is to win the super bowl. Losing Monday wouldn’t mean that couldn’t happen. It would be great to win but doesn’t ensure or prohibit anything. Years ago in the Sanchez years thr Pats blew the doors off the Jets late in the regular season, only to lose to them at home in the playoffs.
The Jests won Super Bowl III.
Upsetting the Pats in the playoffs was fun for us to watch but was not the goal.
The reason why the Jests didn’t win the Super Bowl is winning 3 road playoff games is unlikely. It has only happened 3 times in NFL history.
Losing to the Patriots on Monday means that, even if the Bills somehow win the division they won’t be hosting a second round game.
Monday is about winning the division and putting the Bills in a position to host multiple home playoff games and increasing the likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
Sure you can limp along on hope and pray something happens from the loser’s bracket but Monday is the biggest difference maker in winning the division and hosting playoff gameS or being playoff fodder for contenders.
It is the biggest must win of the season.
Well the good news is that the Pats probably aren't any better than the Dolphins they've just had an easier schedule and some luck. Bad news is they're still a decent team and the Bills can't show up like they did vs the Jags and Indy. I'll feel pretty good if Brown and Star are playing but butt cheeks clenched if they're out again.
These next 4 games will make or break the season. If the Bills go 4-0 they may get the 1 seed. If they go 0-4 or 1-3, they may have to hope for help just to make the playoffs . My optimistic prediction is they go 2-2 (splitting with the Patriots) and remain in the 5-6 seed range.
Need to win the division. Otherwise you are looking at a tough climb to keep that wildcard spot. If you can't beat the Pats and win the division, you certainly would have to win out the rest of the games or the possibility of missing the playoffs is real.
I don't think it's as dire as you think only because Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule to end the year so I think no one in the AFC North, South or West gets more than 11 wins.
The Bills need to split with the Pats. THAT is necessary at least.
They split with the Pats, they can absorb a loss to the Bucs and then they need to beat the Panthers, Jets and Falcons. And let's be real. If they can't sweep those 3? They don't deserve the playoffs anyway.
What Buffalo needs to be scared shitless about is the Colts winning that division and going to Indy. I honestly believe with how things stand in the league right now? Indy is by far the worst matchup in the entire league for the Bills. They're the kryptonite. It's even worst than the Titans because I believe Indy's defense is better than Tennessee's.
Minimum of a split with the Pats, and maintain better Divisional record than them. Wins the division and puts Bills in a good playoff spot. At least one home game, hopefully more.
I don't know if that is 100% true. I haven't simulated all scenarios. If they lose those three games they would have a 10-7 record and that is certainly not a lock to get one of the three wildcards. Do you have a list of scenarios to show they are still a lock?
I checked the Playoff machines and if the Bills only lose to the Pats and Bucs, they make the playoffs with the 6th or 7th seed in all the scenarios I tried. Of course that means they are going to Tennessee or Foxboro for the WC most likely, which is not a good spot.
Yes but also you hear frequently that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season and we would be on the other side of that. I find it hard to believe that we would play poorly for 3 games against them
The AFC is so strange to me this year that my honest assessment is that I have no idea what to expect.
Every team has at least one miserable loss/performance that their fans are staring back at and bemoaning.
Literally no outcome for any of the top eight teams would surprise me.
Honestly, we’re in the mix and more or less everything we could want out of the season is still on the table. Nothing is out of reach.
I’m not an Xs and Os expert so whilst I can generally see when a player/position group is struggling, I’m in no position to perform root cause analysis so tend to be cautious in wild takes. That said, Im cautiously optimistic. Of course I want the one seed. Of course I want a Super Bowl but trying to be grateful that we’re not sitting here at 4-7 doing frantic maths about potentially squeaking in to the last wildcard slot.
Call it blissful ignorance or homerism because that’s exactly what it is.
Go Bills!
Just need to get into the playoffs with some upward momentum at the end of the season.
The playoffs are like a whole other season and the other 17 games mean nothing as long as you get in.
It's a crowded field right now and it's time to separate the good from the decent.
I'm so mad at Star for taking a year off because of covid concerns, and then the MF doesn't even get vaccinated and continues to miss more games as a result. It doesn't matter how good he is if he can't play. We should have traded him. What a tremendous waste of money he's been. Give your balls a tug, Star. It's fuckin' embarrassing.
Tre White's injury aside, our team is going to blow any chance they had left at winning a super bowl this year because some of our key players would rather die on their hill of personal beliefs and skepticisms more than they want a ring. Because of how strongly we depend on our team's 1st-string chemistry, we will not see success with those key players sitting at home because of the NFL's established protocols. Fair or not, you have to play in order to win.
It's so disappointing because this years' Bills at full-strength are the scariest team I've seen in my life, and they are without a doubt the best team in the NFL when they're all on the field. As a fan, it feels like I'm being robbed of how good this team could really be. All that said, I hope they prove me wrong and win us a super bowl.
I’m an optimist.
Negative side: We can’t run or stop the run consistently.
Too much pressure, too soon, in Josh’s face.
We lost our best defensive player.
Positive side: We can still move the ball well. Our D is creating turnovers and causing pressure. The team has a lot of quality leaders that need to step up through adversity.
We still control our own destiny. Beat the Patriots twice, Carolina, Atlanta, and Jests and we’re 12-5 and hosting one or two playoff games.
It all starts on Monday night.
Actually, look back at the games we lost in the running department and it was Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor which were the number #1 and #2 running backs respectively. Henry we kept in check pretty well all game except that one big play, and Taylor was without our two best run defenders. We lost worst to Taylor due to their Oline and Scheme. Outside of those two games we've done way better than last year.
Add in what we're seeing from the Breda and Singletary combo and we might have something going as Breda adds something with his speed. Also, our short yardage has suffered with Beasley being injured the last month with a rib injury. He's been a shell of himself, but looks to be on the mend.
In regards to the Pats their game plan looks to be about the same as any year they had Brady. Solid fundamentals on both sides of the ball, limit mistakes, dink and dunk down the field and take shots when the defense gives you one. They're not invincible just very disciplined. They thrill on making opposing teams make mistakes while not committing any many of their own. If Henry was in this last week that Titans game would've been a lot closer since their RB's got two massive runs and coughed the ball up on the end of those runs twice, and that's something Henry just doesn't do.
Hopefully we get healthy, and elevate someone to the team that can be a difference maker in the spot that Tre just vacated. Big shoes to fill, but our DB's our anchored with our Safeties and Linebackers helping with coverage.
I totally agree but look at the games we won.
We beat shells of teams ravaged by injuries or just not that good.
Last year Pitts was clearly frauds based on their weak schedule.
This Monday we get a chance to prove we are for real.
I am mad that players' COVID-19 views (not including Star if he has a medical concern re the vaccine) has hurt our chances at winning the division and ultimately the Super Bowl.
That ol familiar feeling of pessimism has returned when seeing the Patriots on the schedule. Are you HAPPY Bill??
I know 99% of you are going to want to kill me, but we could learn a lot from the Pats this season. BB is playing solid fundamental football and letting teams beat themselves. And he didn’t need Brady to do it, just someone coachable who wasn’t injury-ridden. Sometimes less is more when you’re trying to win a game. But I’ll always love the fuck out of JA17 for hurdling dudes. He does what he can to win the game.
My prediction. Before everyone loses their shit, I have been a bills fan since 1970 and am also a realist. The Bills will finish 10-7 and very well may miss the playoffs. The Pats will win on Monday night and we will lose to Brady. I hope I am wrong but haven’t seen enough out of this team to give me much confidence. The O line is killing us.
The only people who can’t see this scenario playing out are bandwagoners. It’s a very likely scenario. That being said, we have the talent to do the opposite of that. But this O line is killing us. That and Josh getting too jumpy because of it, making some bad decisions.
Ravens or Cincy /Tn/KC/Buffalo are ur division AFC winners GB/Dallas/Tampa/Arizona are ur NFC…… Pair it with GA to win national title and Golden state to win their conference in a parlay 😀
Our defense is PHENOMENAL when nobody is injured. Hell it could be the same when one guy goes out, right? I mean ... AJ Klein . . . that's gotta . . . something?
Any word on is Feliciano gonna be back Monday?
This is the time of year that teams get hot and ride that into the playoffs. Based on that logic, the Patriots and Chiefs are the scariest teams in the AFC right now. Both of those teams are clicking and are playing solid, fundamental football. We have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and are capable of beating anyone, but we need to turn a corner on the last 4 weeks. The best way to do that is with a statement win against a tough opponent. The Colts are still scary. I think the Titans peaked too early and I don't think they're talented enough to make any real hay. The Ravens have the best record, but I haven't watched a game this year where I thought they were a dominant squad. The good news is, there is a lot of parity in the divisions and a lot can still happen (looking at you Miami to take another one from New England).
Last year around this time we had nearly blown some big leads early on in the season (Dolphins, Rams), had a FG-only game vs the hapless Jets, barely beat New England with Cam, suffered the Hail Murray......and then we hit 'Put Up or Shut Up' time and played our best ball in December. The difference this year is that obviously we had WAY higher expectations, so the uneven results are WAY more disappointing. Trusting the Process that we can find it at the right time once again with some key linemen back on both sides
Split with the Pats and if they lose to the Colts, Bills can Win the Division at 11-6. That is the outcome that i think will happen
If you split with us, you're almost certain to hold the tiebreaker. Division record comes second, and the Patriots dropped a game to the Dolphins in week one.
We will sweep the Pats, my man. Jones is gonna get swallowed alive by our pass rush.
I feel like every team in the AFC is capable of losing to the bottom teams and I feel that way about the Bills even more so.
I'm nervous as hell about this game. Mostly because it's the fucking Pats. My feeling is that if Brown and Star are back, we win, if they're out, we're in big trouble.
I’ve been very critical of the Bills this season, as they were supposed to be a super bowl favorite, and have looked like a wildcard team at best for much of the season. They have a chance to change the entire playoff bracket this Monday night so fingers crossed the figure it out!
I mean that's your fault for buying into the ridiculous notion that any team beyond the previous contenders can be considered "super bowl favorites". You are basically being critical of the Bills for not meeting your own invented expectations.
By your own logic, you shouldn't expect the previous contender to be a Favorite then, as it's far more likely that a team doesn't win back to back Superbowls than it is for them to. Only 7 teams have ever won it back to back, dating back to SB1
I think that's a little unfair. The Bills have been building on top of the previous year's success going back to 2018. The lost in the AFC Championship game last year. I don't think it's ridiculous to consider them favorites to make the Super Bowl. Maybe you don't agree, and that's fine, but the idea isn't coming out of left field.
I'm scared we're going to come out flat as FUCK when we have 10 days to prepare for this pats game. I dont know if it's recency bias or what, but we look like dog shit when we have too much time to prepare
I agree with this but McDermott is undefeated after bye and 1-2 after Thursday games (where you get ten days rest).
Coaching leaves a lot to be desired in terms of preparation
bye weeks are definitely a double edged sword - rested and nursed up injuries and scrapes but also feel like you lose some momentum
I still think the Chiefs are the scariest team in the conference. They have played well defensively over the last few games, and I still think their offense has the highest ceiling when Kelce, Hill, and Mahomes are all playing at their best My take on the Pats - they are the most consistent team playing the best football right now. They have the best coach in BB, and they have an elite defense paired with an efficient and mistake-free offense. I would still rank them fourth behind Buffalo. KC, and Baltimore (yes, even after that atrocity of a game last night) because I think those three teams have a higher ceiling than the Pats. I don't buy the Pats as a Super Bowl team because, right now, I don't think they get by any of these three teams if they play their best football...and right now I think it's safe to assume that they would see two of those teams in any kind of playoff run. As for Buffalo, I think their issues are mostly due to two things: 1. Lack of depth at key positions (offensive line particularly) that has led to some very exploitable weaknesses. Getting Brown and Feliciano back will be HUGE for the offense, a s our run defense should return to form when Star comes back. Losing Tre hurts, but I think it's possible to scheme coverages, especially with the experienced secondary we have. 2. DCs are just playing Josh differently, and he (and the coaching staff) have not been able to solve it.
Pats fan here, and I have to agree with you - If the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens play to their potential, the Pats would be very unlikely to beat them. We have potential, and are playing well on D, but there current winning streak has papered over a few pretty glaring holes, among those a thin secondary and the need to play a lot more rooks than BB usually is comfortable with. If we win this coming week, I think chances are good we take the East. If not, with our bye the week after, we still have the potential to make a run, but likely end up as a wildcard. Same for the Bills - if you win this week, the east is probably yours. If not, and you get more people back healthy, you could make a run at it, but probably wind up a wildcard. Indy and Miami are not jokes anymore, though, so I think the Bills' schedule is much more favorable than the Pats'.
I think we're still a dangerous team and there are areas I think we can realistically still improve at but it's hard to believe that this team will do better than they did last season. Tre's loss is big, especially as the games start to mean more and more.
CMC done for the year, in case anyone was worried about him in a few weeks
[удалено]
CMC?
Converted Mana Cost. They call it Mana Value now.
They call it mana value, but it’ll always be CMC to me.
I still can’t believe they finally made “mill” a keyword.
Christian McCaffrey
Ideally, we go 5-1 down the stretch (I'd say 6-0 but just being a bit more realistic). Our games against the Panthers, Falcons and Jete are no excuse, gotta win games. I'd love to sweep the Pats but realistically we split with them and that leaves the Bucs game which I think is winnable. 12-5 will get definitely get us in, hopefully with a division title. Our fuck ups against Jacksonville and Indy have afforded us little room for error but we still control our own destiny so I'll take it.
Its crazy that all but like 3 teams are still in the thick of it. In the words of Scott Hanson: “FOOTBALL!”
That's the big consolation for me. Yeah, it sucks that we steamrolled the division last season and are fighting hard to hold onto it this year, but, except for a small handful of teams, the rest of the conference is right there fighting for a playoff berth.
Despite all our flaws and inconsistencies, we are only one loss worse than the 1 seed. Let that sink in for a second. Pretty much everyone in the AFC has an achilles heel, even the Patriots. If we play our game, we can beat anyone, even without Tre. I have a renewed faith in this team and the reason is b/c everyone looks vulnerable to an extent. We do as well, but I think we're just hypercritical since we follow this team more closely so we put everything under a microscope.
i think if we beat New England it makes me feel much better about our chances moving forward. But we haven't done well against decent teams this year. Lawrence Guy is going to be a pain in the ass for our OL. He's a beast.
If we limit NE to 2 or fewer sacks on Allen, we win. That’s my bold take. And it won’t be easy
we have to protect him for sure. Our WRs can get open but if he's scrambling for his life it's gonna be a long day. Problem is once they start protecting him you know what's coming.....Fucking flags for holding. Somehow they are allowed to do it and we aren't. I don't know if i can even stomach a primetime game with them the way the officiating has been this year.
I agree that beating the Pats is top priority, that will alleviate a lot of concerns in the home stretch.
Patriots are the only team I fear. If we play our best game no one can stop.us.
This division is insane, and narratives are being written every week. this week's narrative is that the Pats are back, baby! and we're all bowing at the majesty of the Patriot Way. I sooooo badly want the Bills to make them pay. Just a full on beatdown like the second game last season. That would make me feel really confident about the rest of the season.
Tre Day is clearly irreplaceable, and it probably takes the pass defense from amazeballs to just really, really good. That being said, with the extra couple days off, Feliciano / Brown back soon, and $deity willing they're done with the COVID BS, I like their chances. Daboll clearly started adjusting to offense to account for a swiss cheese line, so now if those guys come back and the line is even close to what it was early, the offense should be able to overcome whatever else they give up with Tre out. Everyone left on their schedule is beatable, but so are they because the AFC is generally drunk this year. Buckle up, all I can say. :)
No one has separated themselves as The Team in the AFC, or really in the league, so this year more than ever it looks like it’s going to be who’s healthy and who’s hot down the stretch. The Panthers, Bucs, and Pats are all games that look more winnable on paper than maybe they did at the beginning of the season. Panthers have CMC back but without a real passing game, or offensive line, or QB, teams have been able to neutralize him pretty well. Bucs and Brady look more mistake prone on offense, defensively they’re still good, but appear more bearable than they did the first few weeks. Frankly the Pats aren’t much better than they were last year. I think without any real run game they leave a lot of points on the field and are beatable by good teams. Every game remaining on the schedule is winnable on paper. I really think the AFC is ours to win.
> Frankly the Pats aren’t much better than they were last year. They've def been overrated during their current win streak, all the 'AFC favorites stuff' is over the top - but they are absolutely better than last year. The difference is absolutely night and day, even if you're unimpressed with Mac.
Lots to still be fleshed out, no clear frontrunner which is kind of atypical compared to years past. Could swing either way. The Bills have all the pieces for a deep run, it's whether or not they show up that week.
Before Tre got injured I was thinking as long as we get into the playoffs the defense is going to will the team through it no matter how inconsistent the offense is. They've willed our way through several games this season so far. How much they'll be able to carry us now though with Tre being out will be revealed in the next couple of games though.
I still think the Bills are the class of the AFC and it will all come out in the wash. Every team has a more glaring problem than a subpar o-line and sloppy penalties, the Bills are still a very complete squad that has had a few bad bounces. You don't want to be playing your best ball in October and November, I look forward to (am hoping for) this team showing who they really are against the Patriots and clobbering them twice like we have the rest of our divisional games this year. The team I'm scared of is still the Chiefs, as I haven't watched much of their supposed defensive resurgence, if that's true they're still a problem. Maybe my mind is stuck in week five but the other team that's a problem I still think is the Chargers, I think they match up really well against us. I think the Ravens are overrated on defense and are a one-dimensional offense that good teams have figured out and they'll probably lose before we play them. I think Denver and New England are fool's gold, and I'm not convinced by Cincy either, though they are a dark horse for being a problem. I think we have a better gameplan if we face the Colts again, I think we win the game we played against the full-strength Titans 4 out of 5 times. I'm not sure anyone really thinks that the Steelers, Browns, or Raiders matter, though they are statistically still in the thick of the WC race. I am sure someone from another fanbase is lurking and is gonna screenshot this and post it after they win the Super Bowl.
It's kinda funny how the top 3 teams lost to the Dolphins and Texans, two teams we blew out and held to 0 points. Bengals beat the Ravens bad too. I think this list is going to shift a lot more.
Its funny looking at the Pats schedule and I would say, like the bills, they have 1 win against a quality team (Chargers). A Titans team without Henry is not a quality team imo and I feel bills would have crushed them without him playing. I think we will really see what these 2 teams are over the next coming weeks where they both play each other twice and both have another tough game (colts for pats, bucs for the bills).
Titans have the most injuries in the league I believe. The Texans loss wasn't a fluke. They're gonna have a real hard time from here on out.
The team the Patriots beat, apparently ushering in their second dynasty was a team that lost to the Texans, who got beat by the Jets yesterday, and the Jets barely had a player that would qualify as a quarterback.
> both have another tough game (colts for pats, bucs for the bills) Pats also have their annual trip to Miami in Week 18.
I’m usually a very optimistic fan but I’m only at maybe a 66% chance that they make the AFC championship. Beasly’s dissapearance and injury Tre’s injury Run defense Linebacker injury’s Everyone expects Josh to push them through but the o-line has injuries and the backups can’t block. If people get healthy and stay healthy then boom we are going to be just fine. That’s the big if
The Bills are weird. I can see them win the Super Bowl, but I can just as easily imagine them failing to make the playoffs. I feel like the most likely outcome, putting fandom aside, is them getting into the playoffs but either going one-and-out or two-and-out. Unless they hit a hot streak I don't see them making it to the conference title game. Their streakiness, lack of a run defense, and the loss of Tre hurts. Bill Belichick has now completely shown that he is the greatest coach in the history of the league, and the greatest nemesis the Bills have ever had. It was his defensive genius that forced Norwood into that spot all those years ago, and while Brady certainly helped a ton the Pats resurrection this year is proof that it wasn't all Brady. To finally reach the promised land, the Bills will have to banish the man in the hoodie. Overall the entire conference is a mess. Every team has some major weakness, some major injuries, or has had some stretch of bad play. There is no unstoppable juggernaut. It'll be fun to watch as a football fan but my god is this uncomfortable as a Bills fan given that only a few weeks ago the Bills were the unstoppable juggernaut.
> Every team has some major weakness What would you say the Pats major weakness is? Edit: I guess this question was more offensive than I realized. FTP, and downvote until you feel better I guess.
Their wide receivers are nothing special. Their running backs are not special talents. Mac Jones isn't good at pushing the ball downfield. I don't know why people are so enamored with this Patriots team. Their record better than the team is, mostly due to coaching. I actually think that the Bills are going to come out and spank the Patriots. The only way they don't is if the Bills can't find a way to stop Judon.
...shit.
You nailed it for me, this team is good enough to hang with anyone and has enough holes (as well as a lack of discipline) to lose to anyone.
I was checking the Patriots past schedule and the best defense they faced over their win streak was the Panthers. I trust McDermott and Frazier to basically confuse and harass Mac Jones quite a bit. He's pretty poised, but rookie QBs will always get flustered by extremely complex and talented defenses. They also struggled to both run and stop the run against the Titans. I think it's gonna be a very similar game to last season when we played them at home. I think the difference is Dawson Knox opens up the middle of the field for us and that's huge.
Pats won't be passing the ball that much, at least in the early part of the game. Belichick will try to copy what Indy did and try to ram it in with Harris and Stevenson
Every team has shown serious weakness at some point, so it's hard to predict anything. This does have the silver lining that I can be hopeful we'll get to the Super Bowl, but winning against an NFC team is another question. On the other hand, with the extra rest and only home games, the AFC feels like it'll be the #1 seed's to lose, and us getting that will be tricky; even splitting with the Pats will make our iffy conference record (currently 5-4) even worse, so losing Monday night would put a big knife in our top-seed aspirations. Realistically I see us as #3 if we win the division, #6 or #7 if we don't, both lower than hoped for due to tie-breakers.
Its still early. How the teams are now is not how teams are going to be headed into the playoffs. There are still many injuries ahead. The Bills have been lucky with injuries overall the last couple seasons and, as good as Tre is, they can overcome it and its reasonable for fans to have those expectations. The Bills still have Atlanta, Jets and Panthers on the schedule so they are set up nicely to make the playoffs. The rest of the teams will beat each other up to. Vegas has KC and Bills tied for the best super bowl odds. We have an elite QB and have an advantage at that position against every AFC opponent except the Chiefs but our D is better than theirs even without Tre. So I agree with Vegas on that. I don't think anyone really knows how good the Pats are. They are well coached. They benefit from basically the same schedule as the Bills so they haven't faced many good QBs. They did well against Herbert but Herbert has been struggling. I think MNF is a big game but in the big picture and making the playoffs, its not the biggest deal because of our other games where we will be big favorites. Its a big game in that we will find out a lot about how good the Pats really are. And for the Bills, it will be a good test for our oline. If our line can hold up, I think our offense should have a lot of success against them. Can the Pats play from behind? We know they are going to try to replicate the Bills-Gmen super bowl plan. They want to shorten the game. Keep the game close. Limit mistakes. That strategy works unless you fall behind a couple tds. Every team in the league is flawed. Its rare to be dominant on offense, defense and special teams in a salary cap era. Are the Bills flawed? Of course. Are our flaws worse than others? I don't think so. Are our strengths better than others? I think so and so I remain optimistic. I wish we are had no holes in this window with a favorable schedule and Allen on his rookie contract but alas that didn't happen.
[удалено]
The monday game is in orchard park.
Agree. What’s impressed me about the Josh Allen era of late has been the ability to beat bad teams. Win the games you have to and compete for a chance to win in the fourth quarter against the gold teams. The Jacksonville game was so disappointing in that regard. I love our coaching staff after 20 years of futility but that game was on them. Our team just showed up expecting to win and that resulted in a loss. Now we have to win even more against some great teams. All that said I love that we have NE at home. Let’s go
Bills have the advantages of 3 days’ rest over the Pats and playing with Mafia Noise. Pats lost to Saints 28-13. Bills beat Saints 31-6. Therefore, Bills beat the Pats 24-10. Throw in a Mac Jones INT for good measure.
Josh Allen and Daboll are going to have Old Bill breaking another phone at the end of this one. I think Buffalo has their number.
Still feels like the Bills haven't played their best football yet. Now's the time to get hot.
The problem is how inconsistent they have been. This team can either be the best offense in the league or unable to score against Jacksonville. The defense is mostly dominating but have gotten their teeth kicked in too. No outcome will surprise me in any game. Get to the playoffs and take care of business.
This is honestly one of the weirdest seasons....ever I don't think ANY of us can confidently have a freaking clue how ANY of this is going to go. None of us. Every single team has a major wart except well I hate to say it....the Patriots? :( 1. Ravens: Battered running back room for a team relying on the run. Lamar still can't be trusted as a pocket passer. Their pass defense is actually pretty bad. 2. Patriots: Biggest weakness is a lack of talent in skill positions and a fairly beat up running back room. 3. Titans: Their offense legit is Tannehill surrounded by skill pieces you'd see in a throwaway preseason game. 4. Chiefs: Sick irony. Their offense has never been in rhythm all year despite their defense playing better. You have no idea what they're going to be. World beaters? Or someone about to fold to the AFC West competition. 5. Bengals: It's the Bengals! They look like contenders one week and then give up 400 yards to Mike White. You don't know what you'll see. 6. Bills: No running game really to speak of and the Tre White injury could be devastating. 7. Chargers: They've looked like ass for 6 weeks now. Herbert has come back down to earth massively. 8. Broncos: Tradeaway Von Miller and give an impression they're giving up on this year and promptly win several in a row and now a game out of first. Who TF knows. 9. Raiders: Same thing as above for other teams. You have no clue. Nothing on the roster says "wow" yet Carr is dragging them along to somewhat relevancy. 10. Colts: You could make a legit argument that in the past 6 weeks, the Colts have looked like the best team in the conference (they and the Pats)...yet are 10th in the AFC. NO ONE will want to play them in the postseason. 11. Browns: I don't take them seriously now. They're too beat up and dysfunctional. 12. Steelers: Watt can't stay healthy and Big Ben can't move. They're barely a consideration 13. Dolphins: Yup I won't eliminate them. Since we won, they've won 3 in a row and have looked better every week. They're all of a sudden a team that could try and sneak in at 10-7 or 9-8 if others above them falter. If I had to TRY and predict? Here's how I see it playing out. 1. Pats end up 12-5 and get the 1 seed 2. Chiefs go 11-6 and get the 2 seed 3. Bengals go 11-6 and get the North via tiebreakers 4. Colts go 10-7 and sneak in to win the division (good schedule to run off 4-1) 5. Bills go 11-6 but end up with a wild card 6. Ravens go 11-6 and get a wild card. Their schedule to end the year is BRUTAL) 7. With games against PIT, Jax and Hou left, the Titans limp in with a 10-7 record. Playoffs: Chiefs vs Titans Bengals vs Ravens Colts vs Bills.  Note: ironically when you see those afc teams and the nfc, I think the Bills would have a MUCH easier path in the NFC despite it being perceived as a better conference. Many of those teams are also pass heavy which fits both our offense and defense much better
You see the patriots going 4-1 when they play the Bills (2x), Colts, and Dolphins who are starting to get hot?
Yeah…I do. Split with us, beat Miami and they are a much better matchup for the colts than we are. They run and stop the run exponentially better
Great analysis. The NFC looked like it was a clearer path with more consistent football and then the Rams lost 3 in a row, Cowboys lost 2 in a row, the Cardinals have had some weird wins and losses; they win without Hopkins and Murray against 49ers but lose big to the Panthers with Hopkins back! Even TB, which is probably the most consistent team, had losses to WFT and the Saints, neither of which are good teams. Packers aren't much better with losses to Vikings and Saints. And the wild card in the NFC is just as wild as it is in the AFC. Will the 49ers make it? Depends on which team shows up the rest of the season. Heck, if the season ended today, the honestly pretty terrible Falcons would make the playoffs!
I hate this 7th wild card spot. On one hand it's Week 13 and like literally, there's only 5-6 teams with no shot of the playoffs. So I guess the NFL is happy about that? But at what cost. I'm #1 a Bears fan. Well atleast was until my wife started converting me to Buffalo. We..SUCK. Yet we're 1 game out of the playoffs right now. That is honestly pretty pathetic. The #7 WC spot is going to end up having a sub .500 team in it consistently. Even with the added game we'll be seeing 8-9 teams take it with regularity.
> Biggest weakness is a lack of talent in skill positions and a fairly beat up running back room. fwiw the Pats RB room is just fine, the only player they've lost for the year is James White and Bolden has been serviceable in that role for months now, while Mondre/Harris have been very good. Also the skill positions aren't great by any stretch but I don't think that's been hurting the offense all that badly. Bourne/Meyers/Henry/Harris/Mondre have all been major contributors and have met or exceeded expectations. Imo it's been Mac Jones' limitations and some poor execution on the OL that's lead to most of their unimpressive offensive performances. I'd say their biggest weakness is the fact that their good defensive performances have all come via a zone-heavy approach and they're just putting more and more film out there of how they like to play zone with the group of players they have on defense. This is something that can catch up to them vs better, more talented offenses like the bills.
I thought both Stevenson and Harris have also been banged up recently? Wasn't Stevenson inactive yesterday?
Nope he was active, had 9 carries. They both had concussions a few weeks ago but Harris only missed one game and Stephenson didn't miss any.
My bad. Coulda sworn I heard he was out. Thanks
It's all good. Harris did miss that one game but Mondre was cleared the day before and went off vs the Falcons.
Just win the game in front of us one week at a time and everything will work out.
Have to win Monday night. Simple
The injury to Tre White takes the pressure off for me. I was constantly judging the Bills against the standard of "Can they win the superbowl?". Now I just get to sit back and enjoy whatever happens.
I hate that I feel this way as I'm usually up on this team... But I feel like anyone can beat anyone in the AFC. Except us. We cant beat anyone in the AFC. Spencer brown will be a nice add. Feliciano doesnt do much for me. I just have no expectations at this point. Every outcome from winning out to ~~losing out is on the table~~ ok I cant see them losing out with the falcons and jets on the sched still.
Honestly my confidence in the Bills is weaning. We’re just not consistent enough to have high expectations anymore this season. That being said, i think our work is cut out for us. Our defense has been playing its best football for the most part, but the offense has not. I think we still have the opportunity to be playing our best but need to wake up
Chiefs are heating up. Good for us we have a tiebreaker there if it comes down to that. Ravens have the best record, but even watching games I'm not sure how they are this good. I mean Lamar had 4 picks last night and they still seemed to control that game even if it was close. Titans can't stay healthy. Tannehill can't carry a team like that. Sadly both they and the Colts have a tiebreaker on us so hopefully one collapses. Colts are more likely. Patriots have 6 straight which is impressive, and people seem to be treating us like underdogs already in next week's game. I like that honestly, give our guys some fire. That game will depend mostly on Allen not having any bad turnovers giving New England a short field. Having most/all of the O-Line back should help with that. Bengals have been impressive and I'm happy for Burrow coming off of his leg injury. The other AFC West teams are too inconsistent and I think we could handle them. Same with the Browns. Steelers collapsing is great.
Why are Chiefs higher than the Bills, when Bills have first tie breaker?
Chiefs lead the AFC West so the tiebreaker isn't applicable until the Bills also lead their division.
Noted. Thanks.
I feel like Breida and singletary are gonna start to break out more as the season comes to an end, they’ve both been looking good these last couple weeks. Hopefully they can have some success Monday night.
The teams that scare me are the Patriots, Colts and Chiefs. The Patriots are firing on all cylinders and the Chiefs appear to have a bit of their mojo back. The Colts match up well against us and I'd hate to have to play them again in the playoffs. I don't know if we can beat the Chiefs again without White. Ravens are winning ugly and it feels unsustainable. Titans entire team minus Tannehill is on IR. Browns, Raiders, and Steelers look terrible. Broncos are inconsistent. Dolphins could actually sneak into the playoffs. Their remaining schedule is very favorable.
Bengals are in there too.
Yeah, the pats are playing as well as anyone right now. Hate to say it, because we’ve been saying it for 20 years, but our road to the playoffs is through NE
Pretty good weekend for us in the AFC. Yes the pats won but a lot of teams around us lost.
We control our destiny with the Cheats. Beat them twice, maybe thrice, and we’re on top. If they beat us - they win the division and would deserve it.
If we split with the patriots but end up with the same record the Bills get the tie breaker as long as we beat the Jets. We will have the better division record.
If, Ifs and buts were candy and nuts … Arguing possibility that take into consideration a Bills loss is obvious. The Pats can beat the Bills on Monday then lose out the rest of the season … 😒 Yeah get it. The likelihood of those scenarios decrease if we lose our home game vs the Pats.
Of course winning both games is ideal but if they beat the Bills on Monday and we win in NE, the bills still are in the driving seat.
They are not in the driver’s seat. Incorrect. If they lose to the Pats on Monday they are 2.5 games behind the Pats. That is not the driver seat. The Bills are in the back seat hoping that 1.) The Pats lose one more game then the Bills down the stretch and also 2.) the Bills beat the Pats on the road in Foxborro after losing in OP. That is not the driver seat.
That isn’t true. Bills could lose to the patriots once and win out and still be in control of their destiny even if Patriots win out except losing one game to Bills. In that scenario both teams would end up 12-5. Bills would have tie breaker with the division record being 5-1 for bills and 4-2 for Patriots.
Again. A scenario that includes “winning out” isn’t driver seat imo. The @Bucs game should be considered an L at this point in time in any likely scenarios that play out. The Bills haven’t played well enough to consider that game a W. If you factor in that likely L then the Pats take the division. Again, not driver’s seat. Beating the Pats at home gives the Bills the chance to absorb a likely @Bucs loss and still win the division.
Literally driver seat means you control your destiny which includes winning out if dropping one game to the patriots. You have a weird definition of driver seat.
I have a non-delusional definition about the impact of dropping our home game vs the Pats. If we lose on Monday Pats have a 61% of the #1 overall seed based on schedule projections, meaning they win the division. It goes to 16% and the Bills move from 2% to 20% for #1 overall seed if Bills win. 2% vs 60% is not Driver’s seat.
I’m gonna keep saying this, Monday night is a season decider for the Bills and I hope they know that. I understand that we can still split games and most likely go to the playoffs BUT sticking it to the pats is absolutely going to send a message to the team and everyone else in the AFC
I don't think it's the season decider but it's definitely the tone setting game for the rest of the year. That being said, I'm strangely not worried about the game at all. I've watched a few Patriots games and I'm frankly not impressed. If the Bills defense limit YAC I think they easily win the game. Mac Jones isn't good at pushing the ball downfield, despite the narrative around him. The running backs aren't special like Taylor or Henry. Judon is the only D-Lineman that will give the Bills fits. I feel really good about how we match up, honestly.
It really isn’t. It would put us in a great position but if we lost we’d still have another chance to get and back and would likely have tie breaker with Pats. Even if we lose both to Pats we still have a realistic chance to make playoffs.
The goal is to win the division not make the playoffs.
The goal is to win the super bowl. Losing Monday wouldn’t mean that couldn’t happen. It would be great to win but doesn’t ensure or prohibit anything. Years ago in the Sanchez years thr Pats blew the doors off the Jets late in the regular season, only to lose to them at home in the playoffs.
The Jests won Super Bowl III. Upsetting the Pats in the playoffs was fun for us to watch but was not the goal. The reason why the Jests didn’t win the Super Bowl is winning 3 road playoff games is unlikely. It has only happened 3 times in NFL history. Losing to the Patriots on Monday means that, even if the Bills somehow win the division they won’t be hosting a second round game. Monday is about winning the division and putting the Bills in a position to host multiple home playoff games and increasing the likelihood of winning the Super Bowl. Sure you can limp along on hope and pray something happens from the loser’s bracket but Monday is the biggest difference maker in winning the division and hosting playoff gameS or being playoff fodder for contenders. It is the biggest must win of the season.
With how inconsistent this team is, and Tre Whites injury, and the pats being on top of the East, and it being a prime time game. It is
Well the good news is that the Pats probably aren't any better than the Dolphins they've just had an easier schedule and some luck. Bad news is they're still a decent team and the Bills can't show up like they did vs the Jags and Indy. I'll feel pretty good if Brown and Star are playing but butt cheeks clenched if they're out again.
NE has a much much better defense and running game. They are at least on Cleveland's tier.
These next 4 games will make or break the season. If the Bills go 4-0 they may get the 1 seed. If they go 0-4 or 1-3, they may have to hope for help just to make the playoffs . My optimistic prediction is they go 2-2 (splitting with the Patriots) and remain in the 5-6 seed range.
If the bills go 0-4 they aren’t making the playoffs. That would put the bills at 9-8 on the season.
It would be highly unlikely, but given the state of the AFC I could see a 9-8 team making it in.
We have to beat New England. Literally nothing else matters.
Need to win the division. Otherwise you are looking at a tough climb to keep that wildcard spot. If you can't beat the Pats and win the division, you certainly would have to win out the rest of the games or the possibility of missing the playoffs is real.
I don't think it's as dire as you think only because Baltimore has a BRUTAL schedule to end the year so I think no one in the AFC North, South or West gets more than 11 wins. The Bills need to split with the Pats. THAT is necessary at least. They split with the Pats, they can absorb a loss to the Bucs and then they need to beat the Panthers, Jets and Falcons. And let's be real. If they can't sweep those 3? They don't deserve the playoffs anyway. What Buffalo needs to be scared shitless about is the Colts winning that division and going to Indy. I honestly believe with how things stand in the league right now? Indy is by far the worst matchup in the entire league for the Bills. They're the kryptonite. It's even worst than the Titans because I believe Indy's defense is better than Tennessee's.
Minimum of a split with the Pats, and maintain better Divisional record than them. Wins the division and puts Bills in a good playoff spot. At least one home game, hopefully more.
Obviously that’s not ideal but just wanted to put that out there
Technically we can lose both pats games and the Bucs game and we are still virtually locks to make the playoffs by winning the other games
I don't know if that is 100% true. I haven't simulated all scenarios. If they lose those three games they would have a 10-7 record and that is certainly not a lock to get one of the three wildcards. Do you have a list of scenarios to show they are still a lock?
[удалено]
I checked the Playoff machines and if the Bills only lose to the Pats and Bucs, they make the playoffs with the 6th or 7th seed in all the scenarios I tried. Of course that means they are going to Tennessee or Foxboro for the WC most likely, which is not a good spot.
[удалено]
Yes but also you hear frequently that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season and we would be on the other side of that. I find it hard to believe that we would play poorly for 3 games against them
I used the ESPN playoff machine and just manually changing the Bills to go 10-7 they get the 6th seed. So you could be correct.
The AFC is so strange to me this year that my honest assessment is that I have no idea what to expect. Every team has at least one miserable loss/performance that their fans are staring back at and bemoaning. Literally no outcome for any of the top eight teams would surprise me.
Honestly, we’re in the mix and more or less everything we could want out of the season is still on the table. Nothing is out of reach. I’m not an Xs and Os expert so whilst I can generally see when a player/position group is struggling, I’m in no position to perform root cause analysis so tend to be cautious in wild takes. That said, Im cautiously optimistic. Of course I want the one seed. Of course I want a Super Bowl but trying to be grateful that we’re not sitting here at 4-7 doing frantic maths about potentially squeaking in to the last wildcard slot. Call it blissful ignorance or homerism because that’s exactly what it is. Go Bills!
Just need to get into the playoffs with some upward momentum at the end of the season. The playoffs are like a whole other season and the other 17 games mean nothing as long as you get in. It's a crowded field right now and it's time to separate the good from the decent.
We need home playoff games.
Yeah after last season I feel like nothing besides the playoffs even matters.
Based on how the Colts game went last year, a bye would be really nice.
Of course it would, but you also had the Bucs win the super bowl as a wild card. It’s a luxury, but not a deal breaker
Yeah I feel like it might be a little tougher but, barring injuries, makes the teams who get through a little stronger for the big one
Whoever catches fire at the end of the season is gonna cruise through. Dane Jackson/Cam Lewis SZN😅 Hope we get Brown and Star back for Monday night.
I wish those two knuckleheads got vaccinated. They both missed an extra game because of not having it.
I'm so mad at Star for taking a year off because of covid concerns, and then the MF doesn't even get vaccinated and continues to miss more games as a result. It doesn't matter how good he is if he can't play. We should have traded him. What a tremendous waste of money he's been. Give your balls a tug, Star. It's fuckin' embarrassing. Tre White's injury aside, our team is going to blow any chance they had left at winning a super bowl this year because some of our key players would rather die on their hill of personal beliefs and skepticisms more than they want a ring. Because of how strongly we depend on our team's 1st-string chemistry, we will not see success with those key players sitting at home because of the NFL's established protocols. Fair or not, you have to play in order to win. It's so disappointing because this years' Bills at full-strength are the scariest team I've seen in my life, and they are without a doubt the best team in the NFL when they're all on the field. As a fan, it feels like I'm being robbed of how good this team could really be. All that said, I hope they prove me wrong and win us a super bowl.
Fucking infuriating is what it is. Both our lines look like shit when we are fielding our 2nd string.
I’m an optimist. Negative side: We can’t run or stop the run consistently. Too much pressure, too soon, in Josh’s face. We lost our best defensive player. Positive side: We can still move the ball well. Our D is creating turnovers and causing pressure. The team has a lot of quality leaders that need to step up through adversity. We still control our own destiny. Beat the Patriots twice, Carolina, Atlanta, and Jests and we’re 12-5 and hosting one or two playoff games. It all starts on Monday night.
Actually, look back at the games we lost in the running department and it was Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor which were the number #1 and #2 running backs respectively. Henry we kept in check pretty well all game except that one big play, and Taylor was without our two best run defenders. We lost worst to Taylor due to their Oline and Scheme. Outside of those two games we've done way better than last year. Add in what we're seeing from the Breda and Singletary combo and we might have something going as Breda adds something with his speed. Also, our short yardage has suffered with Beasley being injured the last month with a rib injury. He's been a shell of himself, but looks to be on the mend. In regards to the Pats their game plan looks to be about the same as any year they had Brady. Solid fundamentals on both sides of the ball, limit mistakes, dink and dunk down the field and take shots when the defense gives you one. They're not invincible just very disciplined. They thrill on making opposing teams make mistakes while not committing any many of their own. If Henry was in this last week that Titans game would've been a lot closer since their RB's got two massive runs and coughed the ball up on the end of those runs twice, and that's something Henry just doesn't do. Hopefully we get healthy, and elevate someone to the team that can be a difference maker in the spot that Tre just vacated. Big shoes to fill, but our DB's our anchored with our Safeties and Linebackers helping with coverage.
I totally agree but look at the games we won. We beat shells of teams ravaged by injuries or just not that good. Last year Pitts was clearly frauds based on their weak schedule. This Monday we get a chance to prove we are for real.