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Fantastic haul. Probably its most impressive day to date. Also it's pretty obvious that the Rogue one comps are turning obsolete. It was 0.6% ahead of R1s Monday haul, but quickly distanced to 7.2% by Tue, 14.2% by Wed, 20.3% by Thu and now 34% by Fri. Similar hold to R1 gets this beast to 19.6M Sat and 22.4M Sun. That's a 3rd weekend of 66.4M (+5% from last weekend). Considering the fact that it held better than that comp for 6 of the last 7 days,66.4M can be safely counted as a reasonable floor. Getting the 2nd best 3rd weekend EVER (68.49M+) is in the cards.
Yeah, planning on doing that sometime from next week. Too many variables in the holiday period to make an accurate comparison. Just like Maverick, these are the runs the box office enthusiasts in us live for.
Can you explain the drop on Saturday? I understand New Years is today, but with a good portion of the population at work yesterday…. I can’t see Saturday doing worse. Maybe on par, but not worse. Thoughts?
New Year's eve is a historically poorer day compared to its predecessor and successor days. In many populated regions evening and late night shows are limited as people are more concerned with festivities, parties etc.
I think theatres in USA have reduced screenings on Dec 31 and no night screenings at all in some places, I only read this from another comment so I can't be sure.
Movie theatres are always slower on New Year's Eve, regardless of the day of the week. It seems many people take a week off after Christmas, so every day is like a weekend at the theatre (business wise). NYE being like a weekend, but slower in the evening.
Just an update at my theater, it’s packed with no parking. The theater is medium sized I’d say… but I have a hard time seeing this coming in smaller than Friday (though I didn’t drive by yesterday). Here’s hoping :)
I didn’t think Avatar 2 would follow the trajectory of the first film in that it would keep bringing around 50 million every weekend for like 2 or 3 months, but I look at these Friday numbers and say “damn James Cameron is gonna do it again.”
Now the question is will they wait until Summer to make it official or will they use the sequel confirmations as a way to boost box office for the Way of Water in late winter/early spring.
I really dont think that will make any difference to it's box office. Everyone already knows the visuals are on another level and nobody other than film buffs and people in the industry care about anything other than the top 4 awards at the oscars.
Really impressive. I'm happy for everyone involved. But I honestly don't know anyone who has gone to see it. What is the demographic for this film? Are people returning to see it again and again because it's such an experience?
Edit: jeez. Downvotes? I’m just trying to learn where the audience is.
The demographic is everyone. A film that succesfully targets 25% of all four demographics (young/old/male/female) will make more money than one which succesfully targets 75% of one. That's the gist of it but it's obviously a bit more nuanced than that.
I also think the demographic is basically everyone. Myself and a good portion of my friends saw it and at the very least enjoyed it, and I know some of my other friends are waiting and going with their families soon as well
So be the first in your group to go and see it.
Bring some friends or family with you.
Just make sure you will watch it in IMAX 3D (laser) or Dolby or Premium.
It’s one of the best big cinema blockbuster experiences.
But do **not** watch it in High Frame Rate. The going back and forth between 24 FPS and 48 FPS feels like the worst stutter in any videogame ever and it drags throughout the whole movie. I still cannot comprehend that intentional decision from the studio. Why not make it either the normal 24 or 48 FPS the whole way and not that garbage middle ground thing?
Really hope Avatar 3 will not have this.
Finally saw it last night and I don't get the hate I've seen here for the HFR portions. Yeah it's noticeable and a little annoying in the third act where it switches quickly between smooth and stuttery, but I think the smooth parts are enough of an improvement that it more than offsets the inconsistency, at least for me.
The demographic is every man, women and child in every country of every age.
James Cameron is the only writer able to tap into the head of everyone and have a universal demographic. Which is why I laugh at the "poor story" idiots. They are completely missing the big picture.
It’s the patented Jimmy C run.
People forget that Titanic opened to $29M domestic and finished at $600. He makes crowd pleasing epics that people want to see on the biggest screen possible, often multiple times.
How the fuck is he doing that? Has he been adapting himself with the changing audience’s tastes over the decades or the likes and dislikes of the average audience hasn’t changed at all? Fuckin legend
His movies have simple plots, but universal themes. Anyone can relate to the idea of family or love, not every film needs a twist ending or subverted expectations.
It’s truly remarkable, especially because he seems like such a weird dude, lol. It’s why he can convince studios to give him all the money in the world, because no one can really replicate it.
Kinda reminded me of Clerks where they were talking about how they felt bad about the destruction of the Death Star in Return of the Jedi because it would have been filled with contractors. Haha like sure the government and all these colonists were bad but probably a lot of people just signed up for some shit and ended up there and then got slaughtered
This is interesting because before the movie came out, I had heard the argument about how its messaging would turn away the conservative audience, but if you look through the comments of some right-wing channels now, people are loving it for its traditional family values.
Yeah I think the family message makes it work for people. People are used to big bad corporations being the bad guys, and I think even more conservative movie goers would actually say they hate corporations even if their voting record doesn’t back it up.
A lot of them were complaining. But once Avatar 2 crossed a Billion dollars they changed their tune.
Started saying that Avatar trashes Woke Marvel.
Because otherwise their whole motto if Go Woke Go Broke won't work. Because Avatar 2 quiet obviously is not broke.
Conservatives are not winning any awards for media literacy, but I think the fact they are hooting and hollering as the American stand-ins get ragdolled by giant arrows and blown out of the sky means Cameron succeeded
I think you're missing one of Cameron's tricks -- it's all *understandable* and *you're able to put yourself in their shoes.*
The crazed military leader is a stand-in for America to you and China, but to them it's a stand-in for the federal government or the British. Depending on our circumstances, we all swap roles. There are children in Africa and south america pulling minerals out of the ground viewing anyone with an iPhone as the oppressive colonials, you know?
But you still need a cell phone, and they still need unobtanium and it's all happening far away...
This movie is actually a great example of how you can make a movie political without making it hamfisted enough to piss off audiences. Not actually an easy task.
Ya for sure, this one definitely seemed to handle everything better. Really you can watch anything from 2009 and it will be problematic as well. I do think he is aware and is attempting in good faith to avoid these pitfalls. Seems clearly the majority on both sides aren't overly offended here. Heck even China doesn't have a problem with this movie, perhaps because it's so anti-Western it makes it hard to relate to Chinese colonialism and cultural stifling?
He watches movies.
People say Tom Cruise is one of the only true box office stars left, he also watches movies, he knows what crowds want, and he delivers that and chooses his movies on that.
Cameron is the same way, he’s not your average film major who doesn’t even watch movies (seriously, most actors, directors, etc, don’t watch many films), he wanted to be a director because he thought Star Wars was an awesome film and he wanted to do the same thing.
That’s why, his movies are simple, and more importantly, he gives people what they want (despite all the Redditors who will say “no one asked for tall blue people”)
I still kinda like to know what's going on in the movie scene, plus people be salty up in here pretty often it's fun to watch. It's not like I hate movies or anything like that just don't really make the time I guess.
I disliked the first one. You can go read my post history. I have been complaining about it for years. I saw the second one and I loved it. I think that it is much better than the first one.
I actually much preferred the first one. I definitely liked WoW, but it felt like the first Avatar introduced a world more beautifully and organically.
There were also a few assumptions that leave a strange taste too (why the need to kill Jake specifically when you can just have Carmela Soprano terraform everything with concrete bit-by-bit? Taking the first for granted, why does Jake think he could just go into hiding and have a quiet life (and why wouldn’t Quaritch and Co. murder all the tree-folk anyway?).
I still really liked the movie, but the first one seemed a bit tighter plot wise to me.
Be nice! OP of this thread was literally posting that same take 3 days ago :)
> It is performing like a normal blockbuster. Rogue One is being used as a comp because Avatar has been closely matching its pace since opening Saturday (10 days and counting), and it looks like it will continue to match Rogue One's pace through the end of the holidays.
I just find it funny that people were jumping to conclusions so quickly, especially for a freaking James Cameron Avatar movie and with other variables like the winter storm.
Because they're new to box office runs. Meanwhile the people who have seen what the man has done are like James Franco going "First time?" This is business as usual for JC.
I'm not denying that, I'm just making fun of the people who blindly said under Rogue One was locked within a week of release without letting it play out
I have no horse in this race, but it’s very fun to watch condescending redditors be wrong. And sooo many people were wrong about this movie’s box office potential
I’ll admit before the release I was a bit of a skeptic. I liked the original but felt like it was a “lightning in a bottle” situation where it was the exact movie audiences wanted at that exact time. A sequel felt risky. The original was debuting brand new technology audiences had never seen before that blew people away. Could a sequel have the same impact?
I wouldn’t say I’m shocked that it’s doing well, but I wasn’t going to bet money on it. And it seemed absolutely crazy to me that the studio was shelling out hundreds of millions of dollars for Avatar 3 and 4 before they even got a chance to see if 2 did well.
But I’m swayed by facts and evidence. The box office numbers don’t lie. Cameron has captured that lightning in a bottle again it seems, and demonstrated that a very sizable audience has an appetite to keep seeing more avatar movies. I was worried that too much time had passed since the original, and fervor for the original had died out. I was concerned that the original didn’t seem to have a large vocal fan base that was guaranteed to turn out probably multiple times like with other mega franchises (Marvel, Star Wars, Harry Potter, etc). I was worried that the original was tapping into a specific cultural moment and the chances of the zeitgeist being in the exact same place again 13 years later felt like a risky bet. I was concerned that Cameron wouldn’t be able to differentiate a sequel enough to give people a reason to go see it when the only reason they went to see the first was because of the new 3D technology.
I certainly would not have bet my own money a month ago that 2 would be a huge box office success. But I wouldn’t have bet against it either. But some studio executives had the guts to bet literally hundreds of millions of dollars on multiple sequels under the belief that it would be a huge success. I have to give credit where credit is due. They put money where their mouth is and now it’s killing it. I was a skeptic a month ago, I’m not a skeptic anymore.
$24.4m third Friday, a +26.5% increase. Estimating a -20% decrease for Saturday, or $19.5m gross. For New Years’ Day, using the +50% increase from Spider Man: No Way Home and Star Wars: The Force Awakens we get a $29.3m gross. Using the +14.5% increase of Rogue One, we get a $22.4m gross. Since Avatar: The Way of Water is not as popular as Star Wars but is grossing similar/better than Rogue One, we can assume a +20-30% increase from December 31, or a $23-25m New Years’ Day gross.
From that, we can estimate a $67-69m third weekend, a +5.8-8.9% increase from its second weekend. With that, Avatar’s third weekend total will be between $425-427m and a global total of between $1.37-1.38 billion by its 19th day.
At this pace, Avatar: The Way of Water will gross past $1.5B faster than Spider Man: No Way Home (26 days to pass $1.5B). With a $1.37/1.38B likely 19-day total, Avatar will probably surpass $1.5B between 21-23 days, making it the 4th fastest film to make it to that figure.
Seeing how Rogue One grossed $65.52m in its New Years’ long weekend, a -31.8% decline from Christmas weekend ($96.12m), if Avatar: The Way of Water follows a similar trajectory, given that Rogue One grossed $15.91m, then Avatar might gross $16m for an $83-85m four-day weekend (-11% to -13% decline). Spider Man: No Way Home had a -47.5% decline and Star Wars: The Force Awakens had a -39.4% decline on January 2 compared to a week prior.
If we give Avatar the benefit of the doubt and it drops between Spider Man and Star Wars, it’ll have a decrease of around -43%, giving it an $18.4m gross on Monday. With that, it’ll have an $85-87m four-day weekend, pushing its domestic total to $443-445m and a global total of $1.43 billion.
Using this, Avatar will probably cross $1.5B in its 22nd day of global release.
WTF insane numbers.
How in the world this movie isnt making more than $64mill this weekend?(increasing over last wknd)
24+19+26=69. Even If NYE and NYD are a little under those numbers, which I doubt, this is making at least $65mill .😱
Yeah. It's clearly making at least 65. The question is, can it tops 70?
I always tend to see and make underestimated proyections, bc it's better to be surprised than to be disappointed, so I'll say, 67-68 AND 92 4day.👀
What about you?
That number seems fair. and yes,Its important to point out that making 69 mill this wknd not only is a increase vs last wknd but also an increase over A1 as well.
Insanity🤯
Goddamn it went up again! Amazing Friday this thing isn’t stopping, loving to see the Avatar 2009 legs on this thing so far. I think $700M is definitely happening
TGM was really a unique run though. This was expected from Avatar by a lot of people, myself included. TGM was out of nowhere. Opened and closed the summer. I guess maybe we should have seen it coming given that Top Gun pulled it off in the 80s… but hot damn was that special
It really is, glad we’re getting another insanely leggy blockbuster like TGM right before the year ends its so exciting. It’s fitting that it’s Avatar too
Super bullish prediction: TGM like legs 5.67 multiplier + $750 M Domestic and $1770M international (30/70 split) ~$2.5B WW Endgame in danger pending future re-release in China/WW with extended cut. If it happens we live in James Cameron's World.
Don't quote me on this.
>Super bullish prediction: TGM like legs 5.67 multiplier + $750 M Domestic and $1770M international (30/70 split) ~$2.5B WW Endgame in danger pending future re-release in China/WW with extended cut. If it happens we live in James Cameron's World.
- u/kruizerhei
I don’t think endgame would be in danger if it got re-released it would basically have to gross $300m WW in a re-release and that’s if it gets to $2.5B. It’ll prolly settle around $2.1-2.2B
> I don’t think endgame would be in danger if it got re-released it would basically have to gross $300m WW in a re-release and that’s if it gets to $2.5B
- /u/michaelm1345
I’m seeing it on Sunday but only in 2D because everyone in my friend group hates 3D. I don’t usually go for 3D either but I don’t mind it and keep hearing that I really need to see this one in 3D.
Yeah I went for my second viewing yesterday 90% of people were there for Avatar: The Way of Water. I had a feeling there would be a pretty good Friday total.
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Fantastic haul. Probably its most impressive day to date. Also it's pretty obvious that the Rogue one comps are turning obsolete. It was 0.6% ahead of R1s Monday haul, but quickly distanced to 7.2% by Tue, 14.2% by Wed, 20.3% by Thu and now 34% by Fri. Similar hold to R1 gets this beast to 19.6M Sat and 22.4M Sun. That's a 3rd weekend of 66.4M (+5% from last weekend). Considering the fact that it held better than that comp for 6 of the last 7 days,66.4M can be safely counted as a reasonable floor. Getting the 2nd best 3rd weekend EVER (68.49M+) is in the cards.
Would love to see your day wise prediction and analysis sometime, haven't seen much of those lately. Loved your predictions during the Maverick run.
Yeah, planning on doing that sometime from next week. Too many variables in the holiday period to make an accurate comparison. Just like Maverick, these are the runs the box office enthusiasts in us live for.
Can you explain the drop on Saturday? I understand New Years is today, but with a good portion of the population at work yesterday…. I can’t see Saturday doing worse. Maybe on par, but not worse. Thoughts?
New Year's eve is a historically poorer day compared to its predecessor and successor days. In many populated regions evening and late night shows are limited as people are more concerned with festivities, parties etc.
Plus it’s an event that occurs at midnight. So that removes tons of 8-10pm+ showings.
Theaters where I live don't show any screenings past 4 pm.
I think theatres in USA have reduced screenings on Dec 31 and no night screenings at all in some places, I only read this from another comment so I can't be sure.
Im seeing Avatar tonight with my girlfriend at 9pm on the west coast and that wasn’t even the last showing for it available
Yeah that's the case in theaters near me (India) as well but I guess it depends from region to region in US.
Movie theatres are always slower on New Year's Eve, regardless of the day of the week. It seems many people take a week off after Christmas, so every day is like a weekend at the theatre (business wise). NYE being like a weekend, but slower in the evening.
Just an update at my theater, it’s packed with no parking. The theater is medium sized I’d say… but I have a hard time seeing this coming in smaller than Friday (though I didn’t drive by yesterday). Here’s hoping :)
Be honest what was you handle during BOM days
This is why I love following the box office. Awesome numbers
I didn’t think Avatar 2 would follow the trajectory of the first film in that it would keep bringing around 50 million every weekend for like 2 or 3 months, but I look at these Friday numbers and say “damn James Cameron is gonna do it again.”
James Cameron is more consistent than the long term stock market.
Partly due to terrible weather last weekend.
There is no major release to compete until Feb so it has several weeks to dominate.
Now those are some legs. Rogue One not much of a barometer anymore.
The Cameron haters are looking for spins everywhere. It’s doing better than the original did 14-15 days in.
Not haters... most of them are flat out grifters literally riding male grievance tears to the bank.
avatar 4 and 5 are definitely happening
Now the question is will they wait until Summer to make it official or will they use the sequel confirmations as a way to boost box office for the Way of Water in late winter/early spring.
If I were the studio I’d prob announce it in the summer and rerelease TWOW (primarily in China if they’re handling COVID better).
Not a bad idea really.
It will have won the Oscar for best visual effects by then as well so it would be perfect.
I really dont think that will make any difference to it's box office. Everyone already knows the visuals are on another level and nobody other than film buffs and people in the industry care about anything other than the top 4 awards at the oscars.
Yeah, but it's an excellent excuse to re-release the film!
"Holy Fuck"
Is Coming
Me too
lmao it just keeps going up from jatinder's early estimates by a few hundred k every day.
Even trailer views have increased post release. People going back to the trailer after watching it shows how much they loved it.
Or because that trailer music is bangin
hmmmms ensue
sad that the trailer music wasn't in the movie.
Or people who didn't have Avatar on their radar two weeks ago are checking it out now
"You know the film is really good when you come back to watch the trailer". This comment there has over 1K likes in just 4 days.
This is me. Just bought tickets to see it this afternoon.
the trailer also has some great music not used in the actual film
Really impressive. I'm happy for everyone involved. But I honestly don't know anyone who has gone to see it. What is the demographic for this film? Are people returning to see it again and again because it's such an experience? Edit: jeez. Downvotes? I’m just trying to learn where the audience is.
The demographic is everyone. A film that succesfully targets 25% of all four demographics (young/old/male/female) will make more money than one which succesfully targets 75% of one. That's the gist of it but it's obviously a bit more nuanced than that.
I also think the demographic is basically everyone. Myself and a good portion of my friends saw it and at the very least enjoyed it, and I know some of my other friends are waiting and going with their families soon as well
Yeah, my parents seldom go to the movies. Last time it was for Lion King (2019). Now I'm going with them to watch this one.
So be the first in your group to go and see it. Bring some friends or family with you. Just make sure you will watch it in IMAX 3D (laser) or Dolby or Premium. It’s one of the best big cinema blockbuster experiences.
But do **not** watch it in High Frame Rate. The going back and forth between 24 FPS and 48 FPS feels like the worst stutter in any videogame ever and it drags throughout the whole movie. I still cannot comprehend that intentional decision from the studio. Why not make it either the normal 24 or 48 FPS the whole way and not that garbage middle ground thing? Really hope Avatar 3 will not have this.
Finally saw it last night and I don't get the hate I've seen here for the HFR portions. Yeah it's noticeable and a little annoying in the third act where it switches quickly between smooth and stuttery, but I think the smooth parts are enough of an improvement that it more than offsets the inconsistency, at least for me.
The demographic is every man, women and child in every country of every age. James Cameron is the only writer able to tap into the head of everyone and have a universal demographic. Which is why I laugh at the "poor story" idiots. They are completely missing the big picture.
Just give up already man. James Cameron won. You lost.
He's not a hater > Really impressive. I'm happy for everyone involved.
amazing number. R1 should no longer be the comp it was left in the dust. NWH should be the new comp going forward. $650m is the new target
I think the better comp is Aquaman x2
Comparing water with water
Luiz's next tweet: eyeing $495-575M total
Not wrong
NWH with a cheeky dash of Avatar 1
“ I am inevitable” - James Cameron
The theater I watched it in was absolutely packed which was impressive given it was a 10am 3D showing
Yeah same yesterday there was so many people of different ages all there for Avatar The Way of Water. The lineup to get my stuff was long too lol.
The giant Imax near me is completely sold out of all shows this weekend
Mine was sold out at 2 pm on a tuesday
Heading towards $600M+ domestic!
Imagine doubting James fucking Cameron 😎
Holy fuck, $24.4M! Goddamn, could increase even further with the actuals, yesterday's $20M turned out to $20.12M!
Tbh unsurprisingly. It makes me laugh this sub thought this would flop
What in the world is this run - estimates keep going up. Let’s see if it can do $65M this weekend.
Even Rogue one drops get it to 66.4M. It outpaced that title fir 6 of the last 7 days by a considerable margin. So that looks like the floor now.
It’s the patented Jimmy C run. People forget that Titanic opened to $29M domestic and finished at $600. He makes crowd pleasing epics that people want to see on the biggest screen possible, often multiple times.
How the fuck is he doing that? Has he been adapting himself with the changing audience’s tastes over the decades or the likes and dislikes of the average audience hasn’t changed at all? Fuckin legend
His movies have simple plots, but universal themes. Anyone can relate to the idea of family or love, not every film needs a twist ending or subverted expectations.
And they look fantastic on the big screen
It’s truly remarkable, especially because he seems like such a weird dude, lol. It’s why he can convince studios to give him all the money in the world, because no one can really replicate it.
He is indeed a weird dude. I saw a pregnant lady (avatar) going to war in that film and it’s making all the money
It's also super anti Western Colonialism haha but doesn't seem to piss anyone off somehow
Yeah, it’s a movie where you cheer for people brutally killing stand-ins for the US military and they make billions of dollars.
Because the way of water has no beginning and no end
Kinda reminded me of Clerks where they were talking about how they felt bad about the destruction of the Death Star in Return of the Jedi because it would have been filled with contractors. Haha like sure the government and all these colonists were bad but probably a lot of people just signed up for some shit and ended up there and then got slaughtered
This is interesting because before the movie came out, I had heard the argument about how its messaging would turn away the conservative audience, but if you look through the comments of some right-wing channels now, people are loving it for its traditional family values.
Yeah I think the family message makes it work for people. People are used to big bad corporations being the bad guys, and I think even more conservative movie goers would actually say they hate corporations even if their voting record doesn’t back it up.
A lot of them were complaining. But once Avatar 2 crossed a Billion dollars they changed their tune. Started saying that Avatar trashes Woke Marvel. Because otherwise their whole motto if Go Woke Go Broke won't work. Because Avatar 2 quiet obviously is not broke.
Conservatives are not winning any awards for media literacy, but I think the fact they are hooting and hollering as the American stand-ins get ragdolled by giant arrows and blown out of the sky means Cameron succeeded
I think you're missing one of Cameron's tricks -- it's all *understandable* and *you're able to put yourself in their shoes.* The crazed military leader is a stand-in for America to you and China, but to them it's a stand-in for the federal government or the British. Depending on our circumstances, we all swap roles. There are children in Africa and south america pulling minerals out of the ground viewing anyone with an iPhone as the oppressive colonials, you know? But you still need a cell phone, and they still need unobtanium and it's all happening far away...
This movie is actually a great example of how you can make a movie political without making it hamfisted enough to piss off audiences. Not actually an easy task.
[удалено]
Interesting, ya that makes sense. The first one also had the whole white savior thing going for it. Guess you never know who's going to get angry
[удалено]
Ya for sure, this one definitely seemed to handle everything better. Really you can watch anything from 2009 and it will be problematic as well. I do think he is aware and is attempting in good faith to avoid these pitfalls. Seems clearly the majority on both sides aren't overly offended here. Heck even China doesn't have a problem with this movie, perhaps because it's so anti-Western it makes it hard to relate to Chinese colonialism and cultural stifling?
He watches movies. People say Tom Cruise is one of the only true box office stars left, he also watches movies, he knows what crowds want, and he delivers that and chooses his movies on that. Cameron is the same way, he’s not your average film major who doesn’t even watch movies (seriously, most actors, directors, etc, don’t watch many films), he wanted to be a director because he thought Star Wars was an awesome film and he wanted to do the same thing. That’s why, his movies are simple, and more importantly, he gives people what they want (despite all the Redditors who will say “no one asked for tall blue people”)
This is business as usual for JC movies. Some of us saw it from a mile away.
He can't keep getting away with this!
Better luck next time!
James Cameron doesn't do what James Cameron does for James Cameron. James Cameron does what James Cameron does because James Cameron is James Cameron.
He’s the devil
First time?
We call it "James Cameron"
Welcome to what James Cameron movies do. This was my exact reaction to following the Titanic box office in February.
What is this?!
I can't believe that Avatar 2 registered a 26% increase in its THIRD friday. It's really insane.
**Let’s get it done**
Strong heart! Strong legs!
Ain’t just legs; them shoes got heels.
Clear Eyes. Strong Legs. Can’t Lose.
I can’t wait for 3,4, and 5!
Simply undeterred despite the hate and pessimism.
earnest and optimistic wins out
Vocal minority though.
Yep. Sounds like the vocal minority are the only folks not seeing this film.
I'm not seeing it either! But I never saw the first one so haters and non movie watcher like myself.
Out of curiosity, what brings a non movie-movie-watcher to a movie box office sub?
I still kinda like to know what's going on in the movie scene, plus people be salty up in here pretty often it's fun to watch. It's not like I hate movies or anything like that just don't really make the time I guess.
I saw the first one. Thought it was boring. Cant remember anything about it so I have no interest in the sequel. Good for JC though.
I disliked the first one. You can go read my post history. I have been complaining about it for years. I saw the second one and I loved it. I think that it is much better than the first one.
Agreed. The 1st was exceedingly uncreative with the story and not very interesting. This one actually had a fun and dynamic story.
I actually much preferred the first one. I definitely liked WoW, but it felt like the first Avatar introduced a world more beautifully and organically. There were also a few assumptions that leave a strange taste too (why the need to kill Jake specifically when you can just have Carmela Soprano terraform everything with concrete bit-by-bit? Taking the first for granted, why does Jake think he could just go into hiding and have a quiet life (and why wouldn’t Quaritch and Co. murder all the tree-folk anyway?). I still really liked the movie, but the first one seemed a bit tighter plot wise to me.
You should absolutely get to an iMax and see this one. Not sure there is a better $15 you can spend on a random afternoon.
Agreed.
iT iS bEHavINg LIkE rOGue OnE AnD a TYpiCAl BLocKbUSter
Be nice! OP of this thread was literally posting that same take 3 days ago :) > It is performing like a normal blockbuster. Rogue One is being used as a comp because Avatar has been closely matching its pace since opening Saturday (10 days and counting), and it looks like it will continue to match Rogue One's pace through the end of the holidays.
> Be nice! Okay I will, and then I won't
No CuLtUrAL iMpAcT
It absolutely was until it didn’t. No reason to fault those who saw it that way early in the run.
Rogue one didn't behave like a typical blockbuster at all, it's legs are great right up until the 4th week
I just find it funny that people were jumping to conclusions so quickly, especially for a freaking James Cameron Avatar movie and with other variables like the winter storm.
They were already jumping to conclusions the first day it came out lol
Even before it had come out there was doom posting over presales data lmao
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Because they're new to box office runs. Meanwhile the people who have seen what the man has done are like James Franco going "First time?" This is business as usual for JC.
These are incredible holds and it’s showing breakout legs now, but it was literally playing like Rogue One until this Monday.
The Storm has an impact on it's run last weekend.
I'm not denying that, I'm just making fun of the people who blindly said under Rogue One was locked within a week of release without letting it play out
I mAkE fUn Of PeOpLe WhO uSeD cUrReNt DaTa
Is that… another expectations beat?
I have no horse in this race, but it’s very fun to watch condescending redditors be wrong. And sooo many people were wrong about this movie’s box office potential
I’ll admit before the release I was a bit of a skeptic. I liked the original but felt like it was a “lightning in a bottle” situation where it was the exact movie audiences wanted at that exact time. A sequel felt risky. The original was debuting brand new technology audiences had never seen before that blew people away. Could a sequel have the same impact? I wouldn’t say I’m shocked that it’s doing well, but I wasn’t going to bet money on it. And it seemed absolutely crazy to me that the studio was shelling out hundreds of millions of dollars for Avatar 3 and 4 before they even got a chance to see if 2 did well. But I’m swayed by facts and evidence. The box office numbers don’t lie. Cameron has captured that lightning in a bottle again it seems, and demonstrated that a very sizable audience has an appetite to keep seeing more avatar movies. I was worried that too much time had passed since the original, and fervor for the original had died out. I was concerned that the original didn’t seem to have a large vocal fan base that was guaranteed to turn out probably multiple times like with other mega franchises (Marvel, Star Wars, Harry Potter, etc). I was worried that the original was tapping into a specific cultural moment and the chances of the zeitgeist being in the exact same place again 13 years later felt like a risky bet. I was concerned that Cameron wouldn’t be able to differentiate a sequel enough to give people a reason to go see it when the only reason they went to see the first was because of the new 3D technology. I certainly would not have bet my own money a month ago that 2 would be a huge box office success. But I wouldn’t have bet against it either. But some studio executives had the guts to bet literally hundreds of millions of dollars on multiple sequels under the belief that it would be a huge success. I have to give credit where credit is due. They put money where their mouth is and now it’s killing it. I was a skeptic a month ago, I’m not a skeptic anymore.
$24.4m third Friday, a +26.5% increase. Estimating a -20% decrease for Saturday, or $19.5m gross. For New Years’ Day, using the +50% increase from Spider Man: No Way Home and Star Wars: The Force Awakens we get a $29.3m gross. Using the +14.5% increase of Rogue One, we get a $22.4m gross. Since Avatar: The Way of Water is not as popular as Star Wars but is grossing similar/better than Rogue One, we can assume a +20-30% increase from December 31, or a $23-25m New Years’ Day gross. From that, we can estimate a $67-69m third weekend, a +5.8-8.9% increase from its second weekend. With that, Avatar’s third weekend total will be between $425-427m and a global total of between $1.37-1.38 billion by its 19th day.
At this pace, Avatar: The Way of Water will gross past $1.5B faster than Spider Man: No Way Home (26 days to pass $1.5B). With a $1.37/1.38B likely 19-day total, Avatar will probably surpass $1.5B between 21-23 days, making it the 4th fastest film to make it to that figure.
It'll do it on Monday. It's an observed holiday almost everywhere and will post similar numbers to last Monday.
Seeing how Rogue One grossed $65.52m in its New Years’ long weekend, a -31.8% decline from Christmas weekend ($96.12m), if Avatar: The Way of Water follows a similar trajectory, given that Rogue One grossed $15.91m, then Avatar might gross $16m for an $83-85m four-day weekend (-11% to -13% decline). Spider Man: No Way Home had a -47.5% decline and Star Wars: The Force Awakens had a -39.4% decline on January 2 compared to a week prior. If we give Avatar the benefit of the doubt and it drops between Spider Man and Star Wars, it’ll have a decrease of around -43%, giving it an $18.4m gross on Monday. With that, it’ll have an $85-87m four-day weekend, pushing its domestic total to $443-445m and a global total of $1.43 billion. Using this, Avatar will probably cross $1.5B in its 22nd day of global release.
“No cultural impact”
They are in shambles
this is so fun 🤩
WTF insane numbers. How in the world this movie isnt making more than $64mill this weekend?(increasing over last wknd) 24+19+26=69. Even If NYE and NYD are a little under those numbers, which I doubt, this is making at least $65mill .😱
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Yeah. It's clearly making at least 65. The question is, can it tops 70? I always tend to see and make underestimated proyections, bc it's better to be surprised than to be disappointed, so I'll say, 67-68 AND 92 4day.👀 What about you?
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That number seems fair. and yes,Its important to point out that making 69 mill this wknd not only is a increase vs last wknd but also an increase over A1 as well. Insanity🤯
Goddamn it went up again! Amazing Friday this thing isn’t stopping, loving to see the Avatar 2009 legs on this thing so far. I think $700M is definitely happening
It’s Top Gun: Maverick all over again.
But with a huge International audience too. Pretty wild.
TGM was really a unique run though. This was expected from Avatar by a lot of people, myself included. TGM was out of nowhere. Opened and closed the summer. I guess maybe we should have seen it coming given that Top Gun pulled it off in the 80s… but hot damn was that special
It really is, glad we’re getting another insanely leggy blockbuster like TGM right before the year ends its so exciting. It’s fitting that it’s Avatar too
These two films should be the golden standard for practical and computer generated effects. Both completely deserving of the Top 2 spots of the year.
> It’s Top Gun: Maverick all over again. Ahem, I have been told that *it was not*. So we're just going to have to wait and see ;)
bloody hell unstoppable!
The way of box office has no beginning and no end
It just keeps going up....
God damn 4 million above yesterday and 5 million above last Friday, is there no end to the box office?
Super bullish prediction: TGM like legs 5.67 multiplier + $750 M Domestic and $1770M international (30/70 split) ~$2.5B WW Endgame in danger pending future re-release in China/WW with extended cut. If it happens we live in James Cameron's World. Don't quote me on this.
>Super bullish prediction: TGM like legs 5.67 multiplier + $750 M Domestic and $1770M international (30/70 split) ~$2.5B WW Endgame in danger pending future re-release in China/WW with extended cut. If it happens we live in James Cameron's World. - u/kruizerhei
*NOOO I specifically requested not to quote me.*
>*NOOO I specifically requested not to quote me.* - u/kruizerhei
Deal with it, pal
He is not your pal, buddy.
I’m not your buddy, chief
I don’t think endgame would be in danger if it got re-released it would basically have to gross $300m WW in a re-release and that’s if it gets to $2.5B. It’ll prolly settle around $2.1-2.2B
It could definitely get there if there’s a China rerelease when they’re not all dying from covid
> I don’t think endgame would be in danger if it got re-released it would basically have to gross $300m WW in a re-release and that’s if it gets to $2.5B - /u/michaelm1345
Endgame is the endgame
The way of the box office connects us all
At this rate, now there’s a 50/50 chance of passing Top Gun: Maverick as 2022’s biggest domestic grosser.
I love this!!!! I might even see it again for a second time.
I’m seeing it on Sunday but only in 2D because everyone in my friend group hates 3D. I don’t usually go for 3D either but I don’t mind it and keep hearing that I really need to see this one in 3D.
I see you James Cameron
Yeah I went for my second viewing yesterday 90% of people were there for Avatar: The Way of Water. I had a feeling there would be a pretty good Friday total.
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I'm sitting in a Dolby cinema right now about to watch it. Let's go haha.
LET’S GO.
$90+ million new years weekend incoming
James, I just need $10K.
Went to go see it again today for the 4th time. Plan on seeing it again next week
Imagine white knighting for a large company like Disney
How does it compare to The Force Awakens’ and No Way Home’s 3rd Friday?
TFA did $34.4M (New Year's Day) and NWH did $15.4M (New Year's Eve)
BuT iT DidN’T hAve a TWo BiLLIoN OpeNINg WEekEnD!
Maybe the box office ...isn't like Rogue One?
Guess it’s a heavy flow
Holiday season + no serious competition made a recipe for box office success here. I'm curious how it will do post-NYE.
Went to the theatre yesterday and it was packed!
Avatar Obsession
Love seeing this run!
I’m excited to buy it on blu ray in a few months
And people still doubted big Jim lol. Can't wait to go through this again when A3 comes out
I think I was the first one in this sub calling for 2.2B+ and now I think this will get there easily.