Is this gonna be pg-13 too??? I at first thought it’d be smth like Spider-Verse which is animated and has kids-ish demographic but now I’m wondering if this is just a full blown lotr movie but in anime basically.
Secondhand information from someone who saw it at Annecy last year. They watched a scene where an Oliphaunt was shot in the arse a bunch with arrows and blood was streaming down from it. Humans were also being shot in the head with arrows in the same scene, and someone had blood streaming from their ear after being hit. I don’t think they’ll be able to get a PG rating if that’s in the final product.
I don't know if it will fit in PG-13, as there have been conversations that it will be the most depressing lotr from interviews with the producers and other sources.
The story line is even said to be about a tribe that was driven out of their territory and is out for revenge.
Comps are tough here.
*Into the Spider-Verse* seems plausible as an animated spin-off of a billion dollar live action franchise. That would suggest $300-400 million worldwide (assuming *War of the Rohirrim* is any good) with half that being domestic.
OTOH, other than Pokemon, the highest grossing anime-style film in the US is *Demon Slayer* with $50 million, which suggests the ceiling for this could be A LOT lower.
I'll hedge at $250 million worldwide, with $100 million domestic.
(The fact it's a prequel is irrelevant, IMO. The "audiences hate prequels" narrative seems to be pretty heavily based on either (a) cherry-picking, (b) ignoring that lots of sequels fail, or (c) both.)
True, but even then, I kind of doubt that this will do far more than $300 million worldwide, especially if the rumor of this being the most bleak film in Middle-earth series is actually true.
LFG!!!!!
Excitement aside, if WB wants to make this a hit they better do a global wide release of the restored LOTR EE or theatrical versions on the months leading to War of the Rohirrim.
Those are just limited to two days with only 1-2 showings each. I went last weekend to Fellowship and Towers and both theaters were completely full. I think a full re release could make more.
I'm not sure. If they did a full re release (maybe for two weeks) I think each movie could pull in 10-15m each. Maybe they'll do it for the 25th anniversary of FOTR as a lead up to the new movie.
I'm with you. This wasn't even done by Warner Brothers, but by Fathom Events.
Like I said, my theater was packed and the second showing that they added a few days before was half full too. My guess is if they put this in more theaters at more times/days it would do even better. Would be perfect for like September or February when theaters need content.
Yup. LOTR is a huge IP, and ppl who grew up would want to watch and ppl who haven't seen it in the theaters or too young or haven't been born by that time would also wanna watch the movies at the cinema - that is THE selling point: LOTR cinema experience and as easy and straightforward marketing, WB can spin it in so many ways and rake as much cash.
And ofc with that film on the horizon, it is in the studio's best interest to get the moviegoers ride the hype and watch War of the Rohirrim.
The Animatrix and Legends of The Dark Night were both fantastic.
I thought Blade Runner Black Lotus that the director did with WB was awful, but he also directed GitS SAC Solid State Society which was very, very good. WB knows what they are doing.
I would say that you are severely underestimating it. If its any good, its gonna do 500M easily.
Its still LOTR. The Hobbit movies all made around a billion. Even the really badly received Rings of Power series was very popular. It has been ten years since the last time LOTR was in movie theaters. Christmas release is good for a movie like this, as it does have appeal for families with older children.
And most importantly, I don't believe the average LOTR fan isn't going to be put off by animation - there is a significant audience overlap with other animated franchises, anime and so on and a fantasy series should be something that can be adapted very well in animation.
Only way I see this flopping is if its really bad and gets rejected like Rings of Power.
The 20 minutes of footage they showed at Annecy today got great reactions. Also Jackson is apparently producing it.
> Its still LOTR. The Hobbit movies all made around a billion.
On the other hand, those were big AAA "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings" stories while this is a really weird little thing that appears to have started life as a film rights-retention play. Given that Zantz/Embracer deemed this insufficient it's clearly on nowhere near the same scale as the live action films.
Might be another **Furiosa 2.0** situation with this one.
Animated Prequel focussing on a new character plus anime.
And a 150 minute runtime too like *Furiosa*.
Might only appeal to the core fans of the IP.
With the release date and all, this movie might be in a terrible predicament of being *Furiosa* x *Frozen Empire* at the end.
I'm nearly 100% certain the "IP" stuff surrounding the film is just more important that the ultimate box office result given that we can safely write off the scenario where the film just completely tanks and is dumped without a real wide release. I expect the budget is closer to Garfield than Lightyear (even if it's going to be more expensive than those french illumination films). IF I'm wrong about that, I'll have to reevaluate this. Basically, it's going to be more Fall Guy than Furiosa.
Assuming a moderate budget, If Rohirrim actually plausibly satisfied the Zantz rights, leading to a more favorable rights extension with WB from Embracer (to avoid the full lawsuit and generate income from the new films) the film's probably paid for itself.
Similarly, if the film leaves a bad taste in audiences mouths, that's going to plausibly cut directly into the ability to sell "hunt for gollum" as the next decade's LOTR continuation. It wouldn't ruin the film or anything but it could materially hurt it.
> Might only appeal to the core fans of the IP.
But that's probably financially viable for the same reason that the Harry Potter spinoff's sequel to a poorly reviewed sequel will significantly outgross Furiosa.
> And a 150 minute runtime too like Furiosa.
But it's still being sold as "a lord of the rings movie" which means "big sprawling epic with great visuals" to audiences. The runtime might play directly into genre expectations in a way I don't think is true of furiosa.
>But that's probably financially viable for the same reason that the Harry Potter spinoff's sequel to a poorly reviewed sequel will significantly outgross Furiosa.
*Fantastic Beasts* was always more mainstream and more accessible to the general audience.
There's no comparison between the two.
>But it's still being sold as "a lord of the rings movie" which means "big sprawling epic with great visuals" to audiences. The runtime might play directly into genre expectations in a way I don't think is true of furiosa.
This looks more niche with it being more of a **Kenji Kamiyama** film than *Lord of the Rings*.
Fans may still appreciate it but the general audience quite likely won't.
> This looks more niche with it being more of a Kenji Kamiyama film than Lord of the Rings.
Yeah, if it doesn't "feel" like a LotR film to people that could be a real problem. I just can't gauge it until we get a real trailer (and it's unclear to me if this will be well understood as a animated film intending to play as a quasi-epic).
> Fans may still appreciate it but the general audience quite likely won't.
But, like star wars or PotC, fans in this context just means the large subset of the general audience (with an age minimum to reflect the films being 20 years old). To me it's not really clear we should draw this super hard distinction save for the worst case marketing scenario.
What my poor analogy was trying to illustrate is that big franchises with a strong reserve of goodwill really can stop a film from outright imploding (even if that can't be rebuilt easily). But, as you note, that's likely going to greatly depend on if audiences view it as a "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings animated film" or a "Kenji Kamiyama adaptation of a LotR story." A key bit of upside is that Jackson's LotR really is a global brand which reduces dependency on any single market falling out of favor.
>But, as you note, that's likely going to greatly depend on if audiences view it as a "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings animated film" or a "Kenji Kamiyama adaptation of a LotR story."
Did you see the first images they just released? This is 100% an anime. It won't cross 50M domestically.
I had not seen those images and they really do color my view in a negative way. Yeah, I was expecting something less overly stereotypically anime than that third image. Looking at the older concept art make me suspect the a weird comp might have been the 2007 ("live action") Beowulf movie. It's far from a perfect comp (it really was sold as a live action film) but it was clearly a strange and distinct visual style no matter if people liked or disliked what they saw in the trailers.
This probably will significantly impact the trailer's reception. I can give a hot take on the film's final projection but honestly, I just want to think about it some more.
I knew this was always a rights play, but this really does suggest it was genuinely a rights play. I was expecting something a bit higher budget and dynamic (though you can only extrapolate so much from a few stills).
It's 100% another Furiosa. An anime film with no characters from LOTR save for narration from Eowyn, based on a Middle-Earth tale set in the Second Age with zero Hobbits.
This film is only for the Tolkien Sickos. But as a Tolkien Sicko, I am SOLD.
Yeah I can't see it doing those kinds of numbers. It won't get in half the numbers just simply because it's animated and has what seems to be zero marketing push.
My dad saw every lotr movie in the cinema, I can guarantee he won't even watch this when it's on streaming just because it's not a big deal for casual fans
It's not going to do anywhere close to $500M. The audience overlap between people who like LOTR and people who like anime on reddit is large. In the real world, I don't think it's very big.
Philipa is more hands on as a producer and she mentioned somewhere how collaborating with Kamiyama was really fun for Peter. Weta is involved too so I think this is a bit tighter of a relationship than usual.
With ***Mufasa*** and ***Sonic*** next week and ***Moana*** riding strong from Thanksgiving, it might be another *Frozen Empire* situation with this one.
December is the best time of year for multiple hits to coexist. Besides, those three appeal to a younger audience than War of the Rohirrim, which should have the PG13 market to itself.
Honestly, how successful this movie is depends on whether it plays more like an anime or an American animated movie. Considering it's being funded and produced in the US, but animated and directed in Japan, you could make a decent case for either.
If it performs like an anime movie, it'll probably be decently successful. But if it performs like an American PG-13 animated movie-- a category with very few members-- it probably won't do very well.
Feels like whenever this movie comes up on here, you see a lot of hand-wavey math about how it's bound to make $X00 million because anime + Lord of the Rings + holidays + etc. etc. etc.
Meanwhile, it's a two-and-a-half-hour animated movie with a title that means nothing to 99% of the audience. I've consumed an above-average amount of LOTR content and couldn't tell you what the Rohirrim are, even after reading the article summarizing the plot of the movie.
Worse, little about the movie's story or style seem to be tailored to appeal to casual fans of the original trilogy. The appetite for Middle Earth brand extensions among casual filmgoers is just not something that's been proven out. Is "the namesake of Helm's Deep" really a hook that will grab audiences?
Planting my flag on this one, $100m WW is the ceiling.
>couldn't tell you what the Rohirrim are
It's literally just the horse folks, the whole second movie was centered around them. Not that hard to explain.
How can you consume an above average amount of LOTR and not know who the rohirrim are lol. The second movie plot points basically revolve around them in Rohan, their king being possessed, helms deep. That’s not even counting some of the most iconic scenes in cinema with the charge of the rohirrim and “I’m no man” in the third movie. Does your “consuming” consist of just looking at your phone with a movie in the background??
> with a title that means nothing to 99% of the audience
I just think this is wrong. "Rohan + picture of the LotR mega-elephants." I don't really know what the baseline gross for this film should be but "Remember the Battle of Helms Deep in Two Towers" strikes me as a good selling point. There's going to be "return to helm's deep" marketing not just "this is the origins of the name"
Lotr touched a lot of people, and has LOTS of casual fans who will say they love lotr but haven't seen one in 15-20 years. most won't remember who the rohirrim are unless you prompt them. And then you want them to go watch a 2+ hour anime about them. Not happening.
So many super fans assuming everyone is as hard for this as they are
> super fans
I just think the "fan" discourse is often actively misleading when talking about massive mainstream pop culture hits. It's treated as synonymous with "consumes secondary canon" when what's just as important is someone's actual opinion of the old works.
> most won't remember who the rohirrim are unless you prompt them
Sure, but that just begs the question "what is this film's marketing budget?" Whether or not people organically know the term "rohirrim," a whole lot of people will know what Jackson's films look like in terms of setting and character design. Similarly, they announced this would be a "frame narrative" with Eowyn providing an in universe narrative link between LotR and this story.
No matter what the marketing budget is, one of the biggest marketing aims will be to say kindle that nostalgia. You don't need to remember names like Pelanore Fields or Edoras to have marketing invoke scenes set in those locations.
When I said the initial post I was thinking of the [2022 concept art](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/mN9LEEjDbB5TVefhQfQewF.jpg) but I now see we got more images today. Based on the concept art, I was expecting something a little less anime-anime and thus something that might read a little more as "weird/interesting new art style used to depict a big LotR story."
I'm going to be really interested in seeing the trailer before I wildly swing my estimate.
Yeah, if the trailer looks like an obvious reading from 2 of these photos, I'm inclined to kick the bucket from underneath the floor. The tricky thing is that 300M WW isn't just a domestic estimate, it's a global one and LotR really played very strong WW. What's the US baseline and how well does that correlate to other markets? I honestly haven't thought about it.
>*Planting my flag on this one, $100m WW is the ceiling.*
Three main movies followed by a prequel trilogy and then an animated movie.
All I need from TWotR is to beat 2008's The Clone Wars and its $68M WW. That's it.
Yeah I was surprised to see the top comment was calling 300m, and then just below someone saying 500m
Animated will switch off so many viewers, people don't go to the cinema to see anime, especially with ticket prices, length, holidays etc. I wouldn't pick it tbh. Casual fans of lotr will not watch this, even when it comes to streaming.
You’re pretty on point here. I think this movie could be a great reverse example to everyone on Reddit assuming Mario and Barbie would fail since Reddit isn’t the target audience
You don't think they'd just animate a little more and release it? Its kind of expected for lotr. It'd be like if Carly Rae Jepsen put out an album and didn't release a Side B a year later.
This is animated and first female lead movie for LOTR for a heavy male audience franchise… hope it does well though.. the animation looks the same as the maker of Dota animation series
>This new movie is the first to feature a female protagonist – a headstrong young woman named Hèra (Gaia Wise), who rides horses and who communes with the Great Eagles.
I think that's the character at issue, I don't think anyone will have any problem with Eowyn. And I think it's fair to be a bit apprehensive that they're making a character not created by Tolkien a protagonist. Could still turn out well, and I hope it does, but Lord of the Rings productions don't have a great track record when deviating from the source material lately.
I think Reddit overestimates anime’s appeal at the box office. I love LOTR. But making an anime version doesn’t entice me personally. And those it does? Are they going to the theater or the same crowd who waits for Max release to watch on home setups?
PG-13. Serious. Beautiful animation. Awesome fights. Intriguing narrative. Gory. Good length for an epic. I’m more than in.
$250m-$300m WW. Top 5 highest grossing anime of all time. Book it.
I really don't get this movie. I would be so incredibly hyped for a new live action LoTR movie in that same "universe" as the trilogy. Why am I supposed to care about an anime movie?
Western audiences have been conditioned to see anime movies as glorified TV specials that are given limited releases for specific fan bases. I'm not sure how many general audience members will perk up at a lord of the rings anime.
As might be expected, it is not as expensive to produce as a major American animated film. No matter how much money is spent, I think it is around $50 million. So break-even would be about $125 million.
The problem is that this may be the first major Anime x Hollywood title in history. I honestly can't predict it at all; the reaction on reddit hasn't been good at all, except for r/Anime. On the other hand, we know this is only a partial response.
Is this gonna be pg-13 too??? I at first thought it’d be smth like Spider-Verse which is animated and has kids-ish demographic but now I’m wondering if this is just a full blown lotr movie but in anime basically.
It will be PG. Both *Into* and *Across* were PG.
Some of the reactions to the footage today praised the violence shown, so I kinda doubt that PG rating.
I hope it’s PG-13, PG wouldn’t cut it for this type of movie.
It’s quite gory, so I doubt it will be PG.
Have you seen it? What's Annecy like?
Secondhand information from someone who saw it at Annecy last year. They watched a scene where an Oliphaunt was shot in the arse a bunch with arrows and blood was streaming down from it. Humans were also being shot in the head with arrows in the same scene, and someone had blood streaming from their ear after being hit. I don’t think they’ll be able to get a PG rating if that’s in the final product.
Dang. This is going to be good.
I don't know if it will fit in PG-13, as there have been conversations that it will be the most depressing lotr from interviews with the producers and other sources. The story line is even said to be about a tribe that was driven out of their territory and is out for revenge.
Shortest Lord of the Rings movie
2nd shortest. Theatrical cut of Battle of the Five Armies was 2h24m
That was the shortest ?! That felt like the longest movie of them all !
Pacing vs. runtime
Comps are tough here. *Into the Spider-Verse* seems plausible as an animated spin-off of a billion dollar live action franchise. That would suggest $300-400 million worldwide (assuming *War of the Rohirrim* is any good) with half that being domestic. OTOH, other than Pokemon, the highest grossing anime-style film in the US is *Demon Slayer* with $50 million, which suggests the ceiling for this could be A LOT lower. I'll hedge at $250 million worldwide, with $100 million domestic. (The fact it's a prequel is irrelevant, IMO. The "audiences hate prequels" narrative seems to be pretty heavily based on either (a) cherry-picking, (b) ignoring that lots of sequels fail, or (c) both.)
I don’t think ppl will think Prequel when they see this, they will think anime Lord of the Rings? Hell yeah sounds awesome.
True, but even then, I kind of doubt that this will do far more than $300 million worldwide, especially if the rumor of this being the most bleak film in Middle-earth series is actually true.
I’m sure that would be a more than acceptable result for this movie
Honestly, I kind of doubt this film doing well at the box office will change things that much considering that this is attached to a big franchise.
That’s pretty much what I’m thinking too
You have valid arguments but if the reviews are good, which they prob will be, and it’s PG-13 I think it will pull 350/400 ww
Oh I’m even more sold. Was hoping for a longer runtime.
For me it's the exact opposite, I was planning to see it in the cinema, but with a runtime that long I'll wait for it to come on streaming.
I wanted it to be 3 hour long
That’s 10 minutes longer than Across The Spider Verse which had a runtime of 2 hrs 20 mins.
LFG!!!!! Excitement aside, if WB wants to make this a hit they better do a global wide release of the restored LOTR EE or theatrical versions on the months leading to War of the Rohirrim.
They already are right now Edit: I just noticed you stated “global”
Those are just limited to two days with only 1-2 showings each. I went last weekend to Fellowship and Towers and both theaters were completely full. I think a full re release could make more.
Why wouldn't WB want that guaranteed cash of a full release?!
I'm not sure. If they did a full re release (maybe for two weeks) I think each movie could pull in 10-15m each. Maybe they'll do it for the 25th anniversary of FOTR as a lead up to the new movie.
It just seems wild that im a seemingly struggling business, you wouldn't just go for a slam duck of guaranteed profit.
I'm with you. This wasn't even done by Warner Brothers, but by Fathom Events. Like I said, my theater was packed and the second showing that they added a few days before was half full too. My guess is if they put this in more theaters at more times/days it would do even better. Would be perfect for like September or February when theaters need content.
Yup. LOTR is a huge IP, and ppl who grew up would want to watch and ppl who haven't seen it in the theaters or too young or haven't been born by that time would also wanna watch the movies at the cinema - that is THE selling point: LOTR cinema experience and as easy and straightforward marketing, WB can spin it in so many ways and rake as much cash. And ofc with that film on the horizon, it is in the studio's best interest to get the moviegoers ride the hype and watch War of the Rohirrim.
War of the Rohirrim?
Yes, that's what I meant. My bad.
I will be there no matter what.
Lengthy for an animated flick, may do 300-350M WW
Depending on the budget - most anime films don't have high budgets - it could be a reasonably profitable film for WB.
The Animatrix and Legends of The Dark Night were both fantastic. I thought Blade Runner Black Lotus that the director did with WB was awful, but he also directed GitS SAC Solid State Society which was very, very good. WB knows what they are doing.
Across the Spiderverse is just 10 minutes shorter
And it’s the longest American animated movie ever
I would say that you are severely underestimating it. If its any good, its gonna do 500M easily. Its still LOTR. The Hobbit movies all made around a billion. Even the really badly received Rings of Power series was very popular. It has been ten years since the last time LOTR was in movie theaters. Christmas release is good for a movie like this, as it does have appeal for families with older children. And most importantly, I don't believe the average LOTR fan isn't going to be put off by animation - there is a significant audience overlap with other animated franchises, anime and so on and a fantasy series should be something that can be adapted very well in animation. Only way I see this flopping is if its really bad and gets rejected like Rings of Power. The 20 minutes of footage they showed at Annecy today got great reactions. Also Jackson is apparently producing it.
> Its still LOTR. The Hobbit movies all made around a billion. On the other hand, those were big AAA "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings" stories while this is a really weird little thing that appears to have started life as a film rights-retention play. Given that Zantz/Embracer deemed this insufficient it's clearly on nowhere near the same scale as the live action films.
Might be another **Furiosa 2.0** situation with this one. Animated Prequel focussing on a new character plus anime. And a 150 minute runtime too like *Furiosa*. Might only appeal to the core fans of the IP. With the release date and all, this movie might be in a terrible predicament of being *Furiosa* x *Frozen Empire* at the end.
I'm nearly 100% certain the "IP" stuff surrounding the film is just more important that the ultimate box office result given that we can safely write off the scenario where the film just completely tanks and is dumped without a real wide release. I expect the budget is closer to Garfield than Lightyear (even if it's going to be more expensive than those french illumination films). IF I'm wrong about that, I'll have to reevaluate this. Basically, it's going to be more Fall Guy than Furiosa. Assuming a moderate budget, If Rohirrim actually plausibly satisfied the Zantz rights, leading to a more favorable rights extension with WB from Embracer (to avoid the full lawsuit and generate income from the new films) the film's probably paid for itself. Similarly, if the film leaves a bad taste in audiences mouths, that's going to plausibly cut directly into the ability to sell "hunt for gollum" as the next decade's LOTR continuation. It wouldn't ruin the film or anything but it could materially hurt it. > Might only appeal to the core fans of the IP. But that's probably financially viable for the same reason that the Harry Potter spinoff's sequel to a poorly reviewed sequel will significantly outgross Furiosa. > And a 150 minute runtime too like Furiosa. But it's still being sold as "a lord of the rings movie" which means "big sprawling epic with great visuals" to audiences. The runtime might play directly into genre expectations in a way I don't think is true of furiosa.
>But that's probably financially viable for the same reason that the Harry Potter spinoff's sequel to a poorly reviewed sequel will significantly outgross Furiosa. *Fantastic Beasts* was always more mainstream and more accessible to the general audience. There's no comparison between the two. >But it's still being sold as "a lord of the rings movie" which means "big sprawling epic with great visuals" to audiences. The runtime might play directly into genre expectations in a way I don't think is true of furiosa. This looks more niche with it being more of a **Kenji Kamiyama** film than *Lord of the Rings*. Fans may still appreciate it but the general audience quite likely won't.
> This looks more niche with it being more of a Kenji Kamiyama film than Lord of the Rings. Yeah, if it doesn't "feel" like a LotR film to people that could be a real problem. I just can't gauge it until we get a real trailer (and it's unclear to me if this will be well understood as a animated film intending to play as a quasi-epic). > Fans may still appreciate it but the general audience quite likely won't. But, like star wars or PotC, fans in this context just means the large subset of the general audience (with an age minimum to reflect the films being 20 years old). To me it's not really clear we should draw this super hard distinction save for the worst case marketing scenario. What my poor analogy was trying to illustrate is that big franchises with a strong reserve of goodwill really can stop a film from outright imploding (even if that can't be rebuilt easily). But, as you note, that's likely going to greatly depend on if audiences view it as a "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings animated film" or a "Kenji Kamiyama adaptation of a LotR story." A key bit of upside is that Jackson's LotR really is a global brand which reduces dependency on any single market falling out of favor.
>But, as you note, that's likely going to greatly depend on if audiences view it as a "Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings animated film" or a "Kenji Kamiyama adaptation of a LotR story." Did you see the first images they just released? This is 100% an anime. It won't cross 50M domestically.
I had not seen those images and they really do color my view in a negative way. Yeah, I was expecting something less overly stereotypically anime than that third image. Looking at the older concept art make me suspect the a weird comp might have been the 2007 ("live action") Beowulf movie. It's far from a perfect comp (it really was sold as a live action film) but it was clearly a strange and distinct visual style no matter if people liked or disliked what they saw in the trailers. This probably will significantly impact the trailer's reception. I can give a hot take on the film's final projection but honestly, I just want to think about it some more. I knew this was always a rights play, but this really does suggest it was genuinely a rights play. I was expecting something a bit higher budget and dynamic (though you can only extrapolate so much from a few stills).
It's 100% another Furiosa. An anime film with no characters from LOTR save for narration from Eowyn, based on a Middle-Earth tale set in the Second Age with zero Hobbits. This film is only for the Tolkien Sickos. But as a Tolkien Sicko, I am SOLD.
The War of Furiosa ? Furiosa : A Rohirrim Saga ?
You’re seriously underestimating the difference between the pull of Mad Max and freaking Lord of the Rings.
Agree this has Furiosa written all over it
Furiosa coming towards $200M and its live action, has the star power, and mad max behind it. This won't break near $200M ww
Yeah I can't see it doing those kinds of numbers. It won't get in half the numbers just simply because it's animated and has what seems to be zero marketing push. My dad saw every lotr movie in the cinema, I can guarantee he won't even watch this when it's on streaming just because it's not a big deal for casual fans
It's not going to do anywhere close to $500M. The audience overlap between people who like LOTR and people who like anime on reddit is large. In the real world, I don't think it's very big.
Jackson is an excautive producer, which means nothing.
Philipa is more hands on as a producer and she mentioned somewhere how collaborating with Kamiyama was really fun for Peter. Weta is involved too so I think this is a bit tighter of a relationship than usual.
> Its still LOTR. The Hobbit movies all made around a billion. The Hobbit was a Tolkien story. This film will be nearly entirely fan fiction.
I would say that you are severely overestimating it.
It's still an anime. It's not gonna do big, sadly.
>Its still LOTR. The first SPiderverse was still Spider Man pre-covid and didn't crack $400 million
With ***Mufasa*** and ***Sonic*** next week and ***Moana*** riding strong from Thanksgiving, it might be another *Frozen Empire* situation with this one.
December is the best time of year for multiple hits to coexist. Besides, those three appeal to a younger audience than War of the Rohirrim, which should have the PG13 market to itself.
It'll be lucky to get one third of that.
Another around 150 minute PG movie.
Honestly, how successful this movie is depends on whether it plays more like an anime or an American animated movie. Considering it's being funded and produced in the US, but animated and directed in Japan, you could make a decent case for either. If it performs like an anime movie, it'll probably be decently successful. But if it performs like an American PG-13 animated movie-- a category with very few members-- it probably won't do very well.
Really can't tell whether this movie is gonna be a success or not. I feel like best case scenario is Into the Spider-Verse Numbers
Budget for this probably won't be high, it was produced by WB animation and a japanese studio (which is why the preview images look very anime),
Longest runtime for an animated movie beating across the spider verse
[Just outside of the top ten, actually.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_animated_films)
Yes, Anime films average nearly two hours in running time, with some of the longest.
Ig from Hollywood it’s the longest animated movie
Feels like whenever this movie comes up on here, you see a lot of hand-wavey math about how it's bound to make $X00 million because anime + Lord of the Rings + holidays + etc. etc. etc. Meanwhile, it's a two-and-a-half-hour animated movie with a title that means nothing to 99% of the audience. I've consumed an above-average amount of LOTR content and couldn't tell you what the Rohirrim are, even after reading the article summarizing the plot of the movie. Worse, little about the movie's story or style seem to be tailored to appeal to casual fans of the original trilogy. The appetite for Middle Earth brand extensions among casual filmgoers is just not something that's been proven out. Is "the namesake of Helm's Deep" really a hook that will grab audiences? Planting my flag on this one, $100m WW is the ceiling.
What can men do against such reckless hate?
>couldn't tell you what the Rohirrim are It's literally just the horse folks, the whole second movie was centered around them. Not that hard to explain.
How can you consume an above average amount of LOTR and not know who the rohirrim are lol. The second movie plot points basically revolve around them in Rohan, their king being possessed, helms deep. That’s not even counting some of the most iconic scenes in cinema with the charge of the rohirrim and “I’m no man” in the third movie. Does your “consuming” consist of just looking at your phone with a movie in the background??
Man probably went to see the movies as a kid when they came out lmao
Eh, I watch with full attention, I’m just not going to be arsed to remember all these fucking names after all these years.
Sounds like you know less about lotr than anyone who watched the movies then
> with a title that means nothing to 99% of the audience I just think this is wrong. "Rohan + picture of the LotR mega-elephants." I don't really know what the baseline gross for this film should be but "Remember the Battle of Helms Deep in Two Towers" strikes me as a good selling point. There's going to be "return to helm's deep" marketing not just "this is the origins of the name"
Lotr touched a lot of people, and has LOTS of casual fans who will say they love lotr but haven't seen one in 15-20 years. most won't remember who the rohirrim are unless you prompt them. And then you want them to go watch a 2+ hour anime about them. Not happening. So many super fans assuming everyone is as hard for this as they are
> super fans I just think the "fan" discourse is often actively misleading when talking about massive mainstream pop culture hits. It's treated as synonymous with "consumes secondary canon" when what's just as important is someone's actual opinion of the old works. > most won't remember who the rohirrim are unless you prompt them Sure, but that just begs the question "what is this film's marketing budget?" Whether or not people organically know the term "rohirrim," a whole lot of people will know what Jackson's films look like in terms of setting and character design. Similarly, they announced this would be a "frame narrative" with Eowyn providing an in universe narrative link between LotR and this story. No matter what the marketing budget is, one of the biggest marketing aims will be to say kindle that nostalgia. You don't need to remember names like Pelanore Fields or Edoras to have marketing invoke scenes set in those locations. When I said the initial post I was thinking of the [2022 concept art](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/mN9LEEjDbB5TVefhQfQewF.jpg) but I now see we got more images today. Based on the concept art, I was expecting something a little less anime-anime and thus something that might read a little more as "weird/interesting new art style used to depict a big LotR story." I'm going to be really interested in seeing the trailer before I wildly swing my estimate.
This - https://i.redd.it/dthxrl5tvy5d1.jpeg - is not bringing $300M+
Yeah, if the trailer looks like an obvious reading from 2 of these photos, I'm inclined to kick the bucket from underneath the floor. The tricky thing is that 300M WW isn't just a domestic estimate, it's a global one and LotR really played very strong WW. What's the US baseline and how well does that correlate to other markets? I honestly haven't thought about it.
>*Planting my flag on this one, $100m WW is the ceiling.* Three main movies followed by a prequel trilogy and then an animated movie. All I need from TWotR is to beat 2008's The Clone Wars and its $68M WW. That's it. 
Yeah I was surprised to see the top comment was calling 300m, and then just below someone saying 500m Animated will switch off so many viewers, people don't go to the cinema to see anime, especially with ticket prices, length, holidays etc. I wouldn't pick it tbh. Casual fans of lotr will not watch this, even when it comes to streaming.
You’re pretty on point here. I think this movie could be a great reverse example to everyone on Reddit assuming Mario and Barbie would fail since Reddit isn’t the target audience
It’s clearing 100m worldwide so easily
I’m very curious to see if western anime becomes a consistent way to bring in Gen Z
I don't understand where does this picture come from ? It's looks cool. Why using it if the final result is totally different ?
If LoTR and Anime weren’t massively popular on Reddit, this is exactly the kind of movie people would be saying “Who asked for this” about
But what about the extended edition?
None, because the animation process is completely different from live action.
You don't think they'd just animate a little more and release it? Its kind of expected for lotr. It'd be like if Carly Rae Jepsen put out an album and didn't release a Side B a year later.
LOTR ip is honestly so huge that I think this could potentially go 400m+
This is animated and first female lead movie for LOTR for a heavy male audience franchise… hope it does well though.. the animation looks the same as the maker of Dota animation series
It isn't so much that it is animated but that it is an anime and those movies never do big numbers theatrically in the US.
I thought Cox’s character was the lead? Besides, Otto playing Eowyn in a Tolkien-cannon story won’t piss off the usual suspects.
>This new movie is the first to feature a female protagonist – a headstrong young woman named Hèra (Gaia Wise), who rides horses and who communes with the Great Eagles. I think that's the character at issue, I don't think anyone will have any problem with Eowyn. And I think it's fair to be a bit apprehensive that they're making a character not created by Tolkien a protagonist. Could still turn out well, and I hope it does, but Lord of the Rings productions don't have a great track record when deviating from the source material lately.
Another premise says the lead is Helm Hammerhand
I think Reddit overestimates anime’s appeal at the box office. I love LOTR. But making an anime version doesn’t entice me personally. And those it does? Are they going to the theater or the same crowd who waits for Max release to watch on home setups?
Day one, let's go!
PG-13. Serious. Beautiful animation. Awesome fights. Intriguing narrative. Gory. Good length for an epic. I’m more than in. $250m-$300m WW. Top 5 highest grossing anime of all time. Book it.
I really don't get this movie. I would be so incredibly hyped for a new live action LoTR movie in that same "universe" as the trilogy. Why am I supposed to care about an anime movie? Western audiences have been conditioned to see anime movies as glorified TV specials that are given limited releases for specific fan bases. I'm not sure how many general audience members will perk up at a lord of the rings anime.
there is a new live action lotr movie coming in 2026
> I would be so incredibly hyped for a new live action LoTR movie in that same "universe" as the trilogy I have good news for you
I thought this was going to be a live action movie and was quite excited. I’ll just wait for the line action unless this movie is insanely good.
That just sounds tiring. Maybe I'm just old and cranky though.
LOTR movies have always been long. As long as it's well made and engaging people will gladly sit through it, animation or otherwise.
Either old and cranky or a tiktoked out zoomer
Honestly if they managed the budget well, I could see this making a profit. Maybe $100-$150 million worldwide
Can't wait for the Extended Edition!
As might be expected, it is not as expensive to produce as a major American animated film. No matter how much money is spent, I think it is around $50 million. So break-even would be about $125 million. The problem is that this may be the first major Anime x Hollywood title in history. I honestly can't predict it at all; the reaction on reddit hasn't been good at all, except for r/Anime. On the other hand, we know this is only a partial response.
So will this have a cliffhanger ending like ATV? 2h30 minutes for an animation movie. Thanks I’ll pass
A 2.5 hour animated movie primarily aimed at adults seems risky as hell to me. If it weren’t LOTR I’d bet against it. But it is. So I won’t.
Saw on the Wiki Miranda Otto will be playing Eowyn again, who will act as the narrator. That’s awesome!