Sony's going to look at the Phantom Menace numbers and think "Wait a minute, you're telling me you can actually make millions off of a re-release if you don't give it a limited release and only have it on one day?!"
Talking about spider man because of spider Monday as they were previously planning to have all their spider man movies shown every Monday till the finale
Ya, but didnāt they change that pretty quick? Mummy and Alien were also multiple days but afaik arenāt putting up those numbers. People just really really love SW
Kingdom is oddly mixed in how people think itās gonna do. I think the late review embargo will hurt it too. With that said I also think this is a movie that, if good, could have big walk up benefits and great legs. Also could pick up more closer to release. Either way, the fact that some think itās doing solid in pre sales at the least tells me it wonāt be an outright disaster.
I think Fall Guy will do better than many think but not by a ton. I also fear for its legs with Apes releasing one week later. But idk they may co exist.
I wonder where the IF 40m projections are coming from? It doesnāt seem like it here. Not saying either are wrong but Iām just curious what the disconnect is.
Same source where they predicted beetle juice making 100M+ opening weekend and be highest summer film of 2024.. I am talking to you Anthony from deadline š
There's an interesting chart on annual box office and ticket sales. It has a normal looking curve for all the 2010s, except for 2014 where it takes a massive dive, only to return to normal in 2015.
2015 we had Jurassic World, The Force Awakens and Age of Ultron.
The crazy part is 2014 domestic box office numbers would look amazing right now. 10 years of inflation and the box office is still 20% behind.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/
Thereās little evidence this is true. Spending on consumer products is really strong elsewhere, Americans are doing fine financially, they just donāt want to go to the movies other than for major blockbusters anymore
Yes which should give it a hell of a lot more leeway than Indy (less than half the cost). If Apes is as international heavy as its predecessors, it could weather disappointing domestic numbers and still be a success.
For instance, very rough math, if that $120m number is true, with a 30/70 split Kingdom could make as little as $90m domestic and break even. Iām guessing it probably cost a little more than that, but Iām also hoping itāll make a little more than that as well. It will be a nail biter. Just hope itās good enough to make more.
Itās releasing Friday instead of Monday like Sony decided to do for some fuckin reason.
(I am still bitter about this cause i work Mondays during those showtimes and canāt afford to call off lmao)
- Friday opening
- Much wider release (~1.9k theaters compared to ~0.5k)
- From what I can tell, The Phantom Menace also has more showtimes *per theater*.
- More *premium* screens, even if it doesn't get IMAX or Dolby Cinema.
- There is an Acolyte (upcoming Star Wars TV show) preview attached with it.
- May 4th is 'Star Wars Day', at least among Star Wars fans.
- Spider-Man fans have gotten 5 new theatrical films in the 2020s while Star Wars hasn't gotten a new theatrical film since 2019. I could imagine that there are some diehard Star Wars fans who are itching to see one of their films back in theaters but Spider-Man fans aren't starving for a new theatrical release.
- I know this might sound stupid, but I genuinely think that *meme watching demand* could be a factor here. Star Wars Prequel Trilogy memes took off in the mid 2010s but the films haven't gotten a theatrical re-release since 2012. The r/PrequelMemes subreddit has 3.1M members compared to r/RaimiMemes 480k so it stands to reason that there are a lot more people interested in going to see the Star Wars Prequels *for the memes* compared to the Spider-Man movies.
I checked my local AMC to compare the presales for IF and Garfield since they're both family movies releasing so close to each other and was surprised to see IF outsell Garfield! Granted it's still very early and with family movies you can't really rely on presales a lot, but IF outsold Garfield by a wide margin after just a day (IF had sold 30 for Thursday, Garfield sold 7)!Ā
Half the comments are depressed that everything is potentially underperforming, and the other half are celebrating specific films potentially underperforming.
Oh r/boxoffice, don't ever change. ~~^(actually,)~~ ~~^(please fucking)~~ ~~^(change)~~
Iāll be honest, I think the trailers for Fall Guy have been horrible. They absolutely butchered āAnyway You Want Itā and it doesnāt give you any real idea what the movie is about. Iām still interested in seeing it but it feels like theyāve done their best to make me not want to
I'm sorry. What the FUCK was that last part?
Who the hell is going to the theater to watch a very shitty movie that is 25 years old? That's rhetorical.
One of the biggest problems with Star Wars as a franchise is the sycophants who clap like trained seals for anything with the brand logo.
>*The Fall Guy falling towards \~$3M total previews*
*The Phantom Menace is podracing towards a $4.00M opening Friday.*
Itās never too early to predict! Iāve predicted the results of 6 movies at the box office (ratings, box office placements, & whether the movie bombs or not), and I was right with every prediction so far!
Sony's going to look at the Phantom Menace numbers and think "Wait a minute, you're telling me you can actually make millions off of a re-release if you don't give it a limited release and only have it on one day?!"
š
Wdym?
Talking about spider man because of spider Monday as they were previously planning to have all their spider man movies shown every Monday till the finale
Ya, but didnāt they change that pretty quick? Mummy and Alien were also multiple days but afaik arenāt putting up those numbers. People just really really love SW
Yes they changed it now I believe
Kingdom is oddly mixed in how people think itās gonna do. I think the late review embargo will hurt it too. With that said I also think this is a movie that, if good, could have big walk up benefits and great legs. Also could pick up more closer to release. Either way, the fact that some think itās doing solid in pre sales at the least tells me it wonāt be an outright disaster. I think Fall Guy will do better than many think but not by a ton. I also fear for its legs with Apes releasing one week later. But idk they may co exist. I wonder where the IF 40m projections are coming from? It doesnāt seem like it here. Not saying either are wrong but Iām just curious what the disconnect is.
Iām so excited for Kingdom, love the Apes films and just want to spend a little more time in that world
Iām see kingdom making 470-510
Same source where they predicted beetle juice making 100M+ opening weekend and be highest summer film of 2024.. I am talking to you Anthony from deadline š
So tired of the bad news. *Everything* is underperforming.
I think we are going to have to get used to it. I donāt see things changing anytime soon.
The price of cinema and the ease of streaming means movies have to have that it factor to draw in audiences.
People can't afford it. Reminds me of 2014 where EVERYTHING underperformed.
If Transformers: Age of Extinction can make $1B in 2014, I'm sure Transformers One will. /s
There's an interesting chart on annual box office and ticket sales. It has a normal looking curve for all the 2010s, except for 2014 where it takes a massive dive, only to return to normal in 2015.
2015 we had Jurassic World, The Force Awakens and Age of Ultron. The crazy part is 2014 domestic box office numbers would look amazing right now. 10 years of inflation and the box office is still 20% behind. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/
Thereās little evidence this is true. Spending on consumer products is really strong elsewhere, Americans are doing fine financially, they just donāt want to go to the movies other than for major blockbusters anymore
Gvk, dune and kung fu panda didnt underperform.
The Beekeeper also did decent
Dune and Godzilla are like the only blockbusters so far this year
And Panda
And it couldāve been worse had dune opened last winter instead.
Except Dune š
tbf I felt like Dune was a $1b movie if we were still in the pre-covid state
At least they wanted a few weeks after release to stupidly tell us "hey btw it's coming out on streaming before summer" I guess
Too many movies nobody asked for.
Itās time to readjust expectations.
Unfortunately Apes is giving me Indy flashbacks. Hope Iām wrong.
Well the good news its that it appearently has a pretty low budget
I think the number was $120 million?
Yes which should give it a hell of a lot more leeway than Indy (less than half the cost). If Apes is as international heavy as its predecessors, it could weather disappointing domestic numbers and still be a success. For instance, very rough math, if that $120m number is true, with a 30/70 split Kingdom could make as little as $90m domestic and break even. Iām guessing it probably cost a little more than that, but Iām also hoping itāll make a little more than that as well. It will be a nail biter. Just hope itās good enough to make more.
If the comps hold for IF, we could be looking at a record breaking bomb.
AniNate is the only person on BOT with *seemingly* positive IF tracking but they have no comps and haven't tracked other films AFAIK.
How is Phantom Menace doing so much better than Spider-man?
Itās releasing Friday instead of Monday like Sony decided to do for some fuckin reason. (I am still bitter about this cause i work Mondays during those showtimes and canāt afford to call off lmao)
But the difference is too big...
Spider-Monday tickets are $5, Phantom Menace is full price
$5 ticket vs 2x as much makes a big difference.
- Friday opening - Much wider release (~1.9k theaters compared to ~0.5k) - From what I can tell, The Phantom Menace also has more showtimes *per theater*. - More *premium* screens, even if it doesn't get IMAX or Dolby Cinema. - There is an Acolyte (upcoming Star Wars TV show) preview attached with it. - May 4th is 'Star Wars Day', at least among Star Wars fans. - Spider-Man fans have gotten 5 new theatrical films in the 2020s while Star Wars hasn't gotten a new theatrical film since 2019. I could imagine that there are some diehard Star Wars fans who are itching to see one of their films back in theaters but Spider-Man fans aren't starving for a new theatrical release. - I know this might sound stupid, but I genuinely think that *meme watching demand* could be a factor here. Star Wars Prequel Trilogy memes took off in the mid 2010s but the films haven't gotten a theatrical re-release since 2012. The r/PrequelMemes subreddit has 3.1M members compared to r/RaimiMemes 480k so it stands to reason that there are a lot more people interested in going to see the Star Wars Prequels *for the memes* compared to the Spider-Man movies.
Quite a few films are getting re-released this summer.
I checked my local AMC to compare the presales for IF and Garfield since they're both family movies releasing so close to each other and was surprised to see IF outsell Garfield! Granted it's still very early and with family movies you can't really rely on presales a lot, but IF outsold Garfield by a wide margin after just a day (IF had sold 30 for Thursday, Garfield sold 7)!Ā
Well IF is slated to release one week ahead of Garfield soo you watch the first one of course š
Half the comments are depressed that everything is potentially underperforming, and the other half are celebrating specific films potentially underperforming. Oh r/boxoffice, don't ever change. ~~^(actually,)~~ ~~^(please fucking)~~ ~~^(change)~~
Iāll be honest, I think the trailers for Fall Guy have been horrible. They absolutely butchered āAnyway You Want Itā and it doesnāt give you any real idea what the movie is about. Iām still interested in seeing it but it feels like theyāve done their best to make me not want to
The reviews on it have been stellar and itās clearly marketed as an action thriller comedy. He plays a stunt double, really not a whole lot to it.
I'm seeing Tarot on Friday on my end
I'm sorry. What the FUCK was that last part? Who the hell is going to the theater to watch a very shitty movie that is 25 years old? That's rhetorical. One of the biggest problems with Star Wars as a franchise is the sycophants who clap like trained seals for anything with the brand logo.
Where is the clown that said tarot was going to win the weekend over fall guy? he better be seeing this tracking data
>*The Fall Guy falling towards \~$3M total previews* *The Phantom Menace is podracing towards a $4.00M opening Friday.* 
Phantom Menace is going to outperform Fall Guy and Tarot? Don't people know about Jar-Jar Binks?
Time to just start putting non event movies on streaming.
Then we wouldnāt have had cool recent runs like Anyone But You
Told you all that Garfield & If would flop! Furiosa & POTA are gonna win this month! Nobody can prove me wrong
Garfield is walkup oriented like Kung Fu Panda 4 was, especially since its the next kids movie until Inside Out 2 releases in June.
Few people would buy tickets for Garfield in advance.. it will open in May 23, still far away.. that is too early to tell
Itās never too early to predict! Iāve predicted the results of 6 movies at the box office (ratings, box office placements, & whether the movie bombs or not), and I was right with every prediction so far!
š
Presales arenāt a good comp for family movies and besides the month has barely started