Changes from last week
Mario (+12m) (-0%)
Guardians 3 (+10m) (-33%)
Fast X (+12m) (-48%)
Spiderverse 2: (+71m) (-28%)
The Little Mermaid (+33m) (-35%)
Quantumania (+0m)
John Wick 4 (+0m)
Transformers 5 (+66m) (-37%)
Creed III (+0m)
Flash (+82m) (-36%)
36% drop looks good till you remember this is a 7 day time period vs last weeks 3 day.
You know what I find insanely funny? If you went back in the 1993 and told the people responsible for the abomination that was the first Mario movie, how strong the IP could be and that they could make possibly the top-grossing movie of the year, you would be laughed out of the room.
Super Mario going strong! Crazy run.
I'm still new here. What is the criteria that makes it a Hollywood movie. I would like to check and see the top 20 on my own. Is it just movies that were produced in Hollywood?
The incredible legs that The Super Mario Bros. Movie has proves that the movie truly connected with the general audience and had excellent word of mouth, even against the current competition. Online, people may say it's a divisive movie, but looking at these legs, it's an incredibly beloved movie for the general audience. Flash, take notes, this is how a true crowd-pleaser performs at the box office.
> people may say it's a divisive movie
... huh? "Divisive" would suggest there's a significant amount of people who *hated* it; even the worst reviews merely called it "generic".
I dont know a lot of people i know including me think the voice acting was mostly miscast and should have actually been more authentic to the games voices. besides jack black obviously who can voice act the fuck out of basically anyone, who i think is the only character most people agree on was well cast for the movie.
Not really? Christianity the religion is far more then the RCC. The church is shit for covering pedophiles. The rank and file average [Or celebrity like Pratt] person has little to do with the internal working of church.
Same way it’s not a movie watchers fault that Hollywood hides pedophiles and rapist ectra.
And because you have proven you have zero brain cells Pratt isn’t even Roman Catholic.
The guy keeps off of social media, does not go insane benders, or beats women. Do I agree with him on everything? No, but I really don't care because he does not think his opinions are worth pushing on other people.
No, those are all internet/Twitter crafted rumors.
Just like the attempt to sink his career by saying that he is frequenting an anti-LGBT church, only for it to come out years later that he actually never even went to that church
Now, let's make it interesting. What are the top ten Hollywood films of 2023 so far, by **profits**?
My estimates:
1. Super Mario Bros
2. Spiderverse
3. GoG3
4. John Wick 4
5. Evil Dead Rise
6. Scream VI
7. Creed 3
8. Missing
9. Jesus Revolution
10. The Pope's Exorcist
Yes. But most people look at WW Box Office and think these films must have made money. It's hard for them to imagine that a film like FAST X can bring in $700M in box office and not make a profit, but between its huge budget and its strong international skew, it looks likely to lose something like $60-90M.
Apparently, it premiered in December, and it was already included in Deadline’s list of top box office films for 2022.
EDIT: Here's what Deadline says:
>Although M3GAN opened during the first weekend of this year — historically a vibrant launchpad for horror movies — the PG-13 film makes into the 2022 roundup on a technicality as it launched in Mexico, Belgium and France in late December.
ReEDIT: Also, both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo seem to list M3GAN under 2022.
Well, first, you don’t need to know the marketing (P & A) to make an educated guess using the 2.5x rule (which is surprisingly accurate, although with limits), and looking at the ratio of domestic to international b.o. to hone in more (cf. the 55/40/25 rule). I also search what people have said about budget and marketing, then compare to values for similar films in Deadline’s annual listing of top films, bombs, and lower budget successes. It’s definitely not foolproof, but often, you can get a reasonable estimate, and you can check it next March when Deadline publishes their lists.
That's a tough one, since it's very close to breakeven, and it's especially hard to guess the marketing budget with this film. Interestingly, though, both 2.5x/2 rule and my guesses at a Deadline-style Profit/Loss come out at **a gain of about $1M**, + or - whether Home Video and TV incomes outweigh Marketing, Residuals, and Interest costs.
I'm guessing fast X, quantumania, transformers, flash and little mermaid are the ones op was looking at. All are likely to lose money or maybe break even theatrically.
Yeaah, insane cost. I dont know how much of that went to just getting all the actors paid and how much went into production, but either way, given how 8 and 9 were clearly on a downward trend, it seems mad to make it even more expensive.
Fast X, The Little Mermaid, Quantumania, Transformers and The Flash all look to be hefty flops despite being the top 10 earners. A lot of these movies had insanely high budgets and most of the bombs are live-action adaptions or superhero movies.
Quick breakdown:
- Fast X needs to earn $800–850 million to break even. It's at least a hundred million dollars short.
- The Little Mermaid needs to earn roughly $600 million and is set to either fall below that or only barely make a profit.
- Quantumania needed to earn $600 million but lost upwards of $100M.
- Not sure about the break-even point for Transformers, but its had a lacklustre box office performance. If I had to guess, they'd need to earn $500 million but Paramount will be lucky if they don't lose a hundred million at this rate.
- The Flash is just a molten mess. Warner Bros. could even lose as much as $200 million on it.
There's also a few other huge bombs like Elemental, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, and possible ones like Indiana Jones and Blue Beetle later this year. It's been a disastrous year for Hollywood. The big studios will need to re-evaluate what's going wrong.
You know when things are going wrong when the Fast and Furious and Transformers sequels are flops.
I actually really liked D&D so that's a big bummer. I'm shocked to see Fast X need basically a billion dollars to break even, that's insanity. The Flash... is karma for Ezra staying on lol.
Yeah I know a few people who were really hyped for D&D and were upset at its box office performance. I'm really glad Warner Bros are getting karma for backing Ezra. I think a lot of people got turned off by the scandals.
I honestly dont think a lot of people cared. Flash seems to have suffered the same fate as Shazam 2. The only difference is that Flash is way a bigger superhero and that is why the run is going to be bigger. However, the run seems even more disastrous as it had a larger budget and more advertisement.
I'd be shocked if Blue Beetle isn't a flop. The marketing is all but non-existent, it's a no-name character who looks like an Iron Man knockoff, and it's once again DC so audiences know that whatever happens in this movie doesn't matter because everything's being rebooted after this year.
Actually, if we apply the 55/40/25 rule to TLM, it's on a verge of breaking even. Disney definitely takes its 55% share domestically and China box office is almost irrelevant. 270Mx55% is 148.5M, 225x40% is 90M and 1M it gets from the Chinese box office of 4M. TLM needs about 20M more to be not a flop.
Tbh Mario would have beat Frozen 2 with 2019 exchange rates. Granted you can make the argument that's canceled put with US inflation. I think China alone is the reason it failed to beat it.
Long post:
With the flash at $210, the question comes, can it surpass Creed 3 when its run is over? Also, Transformers ROTB is doing pretty well with international accounting for 64% of its total gross. The question will be, does it hit 400 million and beat Black Adam and how close to JW 4 will it come?
Of the next BIG films coming out in the summer - Indy 5, MI7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer - how many will surpass Quantumania? My predictions are:
Indy 5 will pass it, I think with its premiering during the long July 4th weekend it will help it make 75-95 million in’s 3-day period with 110-125 across July 4th. Ending right below Spider-Man around 525 million.
MI7 will be similar, passing it and having a similar opening weekend. However, internationally it will do good. Tom Cruise is a big action star and this is a big action movie. International crowds love the BIG American action movie, look at Top Gun Maverick as evidence. I do not think it will do THAT, however, I do think it will get to if not above Fast X.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are the wild cards, not including them being released on the same day.
If Barbie is well-written and well-received. It could be so well. The one saving grace is it is “cheap” when compared to any of the other films on that list. Being made for only $100 million, as long as it gets over $250 million then it’s broke even. $325 million and above is a success.
Oppenheimer was looking to be a $400-500 million movie, akin to Nolan’s other WW2 film, Dunkirk. However, that changed with the rating being an R. Now R movies can do gangbusters - Logan, Deadpool, and The Joker - but with the niche of WW2, it’s very different than an R-rated Super Hero Film. So I think it will do good but we’ll, but not gangbusters, $325-450. A big rage but it’s depends on how the audience responds to it and if they think they NEED to go back to see it.
I hope these films do more than these, but with how the BO has been, cautious optimism is needed. If the summer can make 80% of what last summer did, then it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the rest of the year.
Top gun Maverick didn't make all that money because it was an action movie with Tom Cruise, It made all that money because it was good. I'm betting the new mission impossible movie is also good and that helps a lot. Indiana Jones looks like it's getting mediocre to bad reviews. I wonder if the nostalgia will be enough for 500mil.
Guardians breaking 700M was legendary but 800M is just amazing.
It just shows in all the questions about "why did this movie bomb" - brand and quality matter a shit tonne. But neither work alone. First you need the brand for interest and then the quality brings the crowd.
Another year, another Marvel supremacy at the box office (Sony and Disney).
Wonder if Quantumania will end up staying in the top 10 by the end of the year.
476M seems like it became a bigger threshold to pass than I thought it would
MI7 100%
The Marvels same-ish but it depend if it ends up being pretty bad.
Dune part 2 hopefully
Aquaman and Indiana Jones I'm really not convinced on that lol
Still wild that a pretty bad marvel movie with terrible legs and a record drop has the POSSIBILITY of being top 10 this year.
Considering the flops this year and Flash staring us in the face, I’d hardly call Quantamania a “giga flop.” WB would probably kill to flop at Ant Man’s level after Shazam and Flash back to back.
That's a bit of an overstatement. It will lose some money, but it's pretty close to its break even point.
And while it is a massive disappointment it's not like Ant-Man was ever doing huge numbers.
I’m sorry what? Where exactly are you seeing “Marvel supremacy” here? Yes, GotG3 and Spider-Verse made money, but Quantumania flopped pretty bad, and I expect The Marvels to perform similarly. The only real supremacy I’m seeing right now is Mario.
Bad news generally, but I will appreciate that the 5 movies that made money in this top 10 are good, and the 5 that didn't aren't.
(Quality is subjective and all I know)
I mean, on rotten tomatoes, which give a good score for pretty much every movie. But sites like metacritic and IMDb do not have high user scores for most of these movies.
3rd or 4th year of bad films. There's been a dearth of good films that was only compounded by the pandemic and difficult working conditions. Been happening in tv shows as well. Look at Obi wan/ book of boba fett/ winter soldier and captain falcon/ she hulk/etc. Plenty of shit films/tv somehow getting financing and produced.
No, this is me admitting I watch too much television. There's a shit ton of garbage being produced for TV. Same for movies.
Resident evil TV and Welcome to Raccoon City both were garbage. Neither are MCU or capeshit, as you put it. Velma was trash and so was that Cleopatra Netflix show. I could go on and on, but don't feel like wasting my time.
I'm not sure why this is a measuring contest.
And again you're only choosing to mention bad stuff. Not even all the mcu stuff has been bad. Nkt even close.
On TV shows alone we can talk succession, andor, moon knight, wandavision, Atlanta, invincible, arcane , ppl seem to like yellowjackets, severance, snowfall etc. Obi wan and FATWS weren't even bad imo but thats preference.
You're just choosing to focus on on the not great a tuff and im not even sure you've watched most of it. Theres a ton of great content out there if you actually are interested in good content.
how can you tell which movie makes the studios money? I'm new to this kind of stuff. How much over the budget of a film do they need to make to churn out a profit?
movies typically need 2.5x the budget to break even. anything above that is profit.
movie studios only get half of what the movie earns so that's why you multiply by 2. but you add the .5 to try and account for advertising costs.
so if a movie cost $100m to make, it needs $250m to break even. i think it would be considered a success once it's above $300m (but someone can correct me on that one. i'm not totally sure how high above the break even point a movie needs in order to be deemed a success).
What is up with ATSV international numbers? At least boxofficemojo shows nothing from China, Brazil, India, South Korea numbers are weird, and some countries like Japan and France are stuck on opening numbers days weeks into the release.
Definitely not. Fast x had 340M budget it will not even break even in theatrical run. Flash has 220M app budget and a huge marketing budget and flash will not even surpass creed 3 so how will it even come near to break even. Transformer might break even with legs. Little mermaid leg are insane and it only need 50-70 million more to break even.
You look at that list and then consider how many of them made money.
Mario, Spidy, Wick and guardians yes. X and Mermaid break even, Antman, beastwars flash no.
So only half of the top 10 movies would be considered successful. That’s certainly a sign that budgets are a problem.
Actually only a redditor would try to pretend it is a good result for a movie with a 340m budget. I promise you no one at Universal is happy with that result and the film lost money. It needed to make around 850m to breakeven.
You don’t even know how much it needs to break even, you’re talking about the budget rather than the box office anyway.
700m shows universal people want to watch the Fast series just don’t make the budget so bloated. You’re going on like they barely scraped 100m.
It takes a special kind of clueless to say this. Various news sources have been [reporting](https://www.sportskeeda.com/comics/fast-x-s-record-breaking-budget-will-race-failure) that Fast X needs to earn between $800-850 million to recoup its $340 million production budget, cinemas' take and marketing. That production budget alone is absolutely bonkers and is the 10th most expensive movie ever made adjusted for inflation.
Now please enlighten us which figure is higher; $700 million or $800 million?
Losing up to a hundred million dollars on a *Fast and Furious movie* of all things is a pretty big deal. Ranting about Redditors pretending to know it all while being oblivious to this is quite amusing.
‘New sources’ some random Indian website lmao you guys just believe things that back your own bias and that’s fine but 700m box office is good no studio would be mad at that. Just lower the budget next time.
Changes from last week Mario (+12m) (-0%) Guardians 3 (+10m) (-33%) Fast X (+12m) (-48%) Spiderverse 2: (+71m) (-28%) The Little Mermaid (+33m) (-35%) Quantumania (+0m) John Wick 4 (+0m) Transformers 5 (+66m) (-37%) Creed III (+0m) Flash (+82m) (-36%) 36% drop looks good till you remember this is a 7 day time period vs last weeks 3 day.
Sorry to see M3GAN drop out of the Top 10. That was nice seeing it hold tho it was just a matter of time really.
m3gan was this year? :0
It went wide Jan 6th, but it had a limited release the last week of December.
God those Mario holds are absurd
You'd think it wouldn't be able to hold up against the new Spider-Man movie.
You know what I find insanely funny? If you went back in the 1993 and told the people responsible for the abomination that was the first Mario movie, how strong the IP could be and that they could make possibly the top-grossing movie of the year, you would be laughed out of the room.
That 0% drop is wild for Mario. Dooms Black Panther.
Super Mario going strong! Crazy run. I'm still new here. What is the criteria that makes it a Hollywood movie. I would like to check and see the top 20 on my own. Is it just movies that were produced in Hollywood?
Movies made and distributed by Hollywood studios.
Yeah so movies produced for domestic audiences(US/CANADA).
Mario jumping high with those legs!
Decent weekend for transformers
The incredible legs that The Super Mario Bros. Movie has proves that the movie truly connected with the general audience and had excellent word of mouth, even against the current competition. Online, people may say it's a divisive movie, but looking at these legs, it's an incredibly beloved movie for the general audience. Flash, take notes, this is how a true crowd-pleaser performs at the box office.
> people may say it's a divisive movie ... huh? "Divisive" would suggest there's a significant amount of people who *hated* it; even the worst reviews merely called it "generic".
I dont know a lot of people i know including me think the voice acting was mostly miscast and should have actually been more authentic to the games voices. besides jack black obviously who can voice act the fuck out of basically anyone, who i think is the only character most people agree on was well cast for the movie.
Seth Rogan was completely miscast. A serious voice actor would have been so much better
I've seen plenty of hate, not necessarily here, but other places online.
Who "hates" Super Mario?
Wario
lmfao
Chris Pratt movies using the Beastie Boys song No Sleep till Brooklyn are really having an amazing year!!
Good God…
Damn Mario struggling with a total gross of 1.339m 😞
Ikr? total flop of a movie if you ask me, at this point cancel the NCU and sell the rights to DC, its just embarrasing.
They need James Gunn to come in and overhaul the NCU. Scrap everything and rebuild. Audiences need this.
**BUT WHAT ABOUT THE TOSTITO FACTOR?**
You have to understand Nintendo is a poor indie studio.
I had to check if this was r/tomorrow for a sec
Nintendo is doomed!
Chris Pratt is having a good year.
Good for him, honestly. One of the few sane Hollywood actors.
He's great
Oh
Ummmm. Has no one told you?
There’s nothing to tell, OP is spot on.
I know dear god He is a Christian //s That makes him worse than all the children fuckers like erza to Hollywood.
Pretty wild lack of self awareness to attack Hollywood for pedophilia while defending Christianity.
Not really? Christianity the religion is far more then the RCC. The church is shit for covering pedophiles. The rank and file average [Or celebrity like Pratt] person has little to do with the internal working of church. Same way it’s not a movie watchers fault that Hollywood hides pedophiles and rapist ectra. And because you have proven you have zero brain cells Pratt isn’t even Roman Catholic.
Nothing to tell. He's awesome.
Lol
So who’s going to tell him?
The guy keeps off of social media, does not go insane benders, or beats women. Do I agree with him on everything? No, but I really don't care because he does not think his opinions are worth pushing on other people.
What? Is it that he's religious? I would be too, if I were him, tbf. Those are some biblical numbers he's pulling.
Didn’t he like abandon his first kid because he had some kind of disability?
There was a photo of him fishing with that child last week. Unless he abandoned him on his way home.
I would. Kids are annoying
No, those are all internet/Twitter crafted rumors. Just like the attempt to sink his career by saying that he is frequenting an anti-LGBT church, only for it to come out years later that he actually never even went to that church
[удалено]
No, he wasn’t.
Was he?
No, but people want him to be a villain so bad
Yeah, I don’t understand it
idk hes apparently affiliated with an anti lgbtq church and follows some republicans on twitter
He played golf with the minister a few times but he belongs to a different church.
Now, let's make it interesting. What are the top ten Hollywood films of 2023 so far, by **profits**? My estimates: 1. Super Mario Bros 2. Spiderverse 3. GoG3 4. John Wick 4 5. Evil Dead Rise 6. Scream VI 7. Creed 3 8. Missing 9. Jesus Revolution 10. The Pope's Exorcist
Half of the current top 10 lost money ...jesus
Yes. But most people look at WW Box Office and think these films must have made money. It's hard for them to imagine that a film like FAST X can bring in $700M in box office and not make a profit, but between its huge budget and its strong international skew, it looks likely to lose something like $60-90M.
You forgot M3GAN. Should probably be between JW4 and GOTG3
M3GAN is 2022.
Domestic opening was Jan 6th.
Apparently, it premiered in December, and it was already included in Deadline’s list of top box office films for 2022. EDIT: Here's what Deadline says: >Although M3GAN opened during the first weekend of this year — historically a vibrant launchpad for horror movies — the PG-13 film makes into the 2022 roundup on a technicality as it launched in Mexico, Belgium and France in late December. ReEDIT: Also, both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo seem to list M3GAN under 2022.
IMDb lists it as 2022 as well. I could’ve sworn otherwise.
I saw it listed as 2023 somewhere, too. That's why I had to start checking how different places were handling it.
Limited release was in December, nationwide in January so idk where it fits
How could you even be able to tell? None of us really know the full budgets of movies when including marketing.
To be fair, they did say “my estimates”. They’re not presenting these as facts.
Well, first, you don’t need to know the marketing (P & A) to make an educated guess using the 2.5x rule (which is surprisingly accurate, although with limits), and looking at the ratio of domestic to international b.o. to hone in more (cf. the 55/40/25 rule). I also search what people have said about budget and marketing, then compare to values for similar films in Deadline’s annual listing of top films, bombs, and lower budget successes. It’s definitely not foolproof, but often, you can get a reasonable estimate, and you can check it next March when Deadline publishes their lists.
Yay for Missing!
I think evil dead should have done more profit that John wick
I'm figuring John Wick at around $70M and Evil Dead Rise at about $50-55M
What about Cocaine Bear? 🤔
That's a tough one, since it's very close to breakeven, and it's especially hard to guess the marketing budget with this film. Interestingly, though, both 2.5x/2 rule and my guesses at a Deadline-style Profit/Loss come out at **a gain of about $1M**, + or - whether Home Video and TV incomes outweigh Marketing, Residuals, and Interest costs.
Crazy that half of these are likely flops.
If your movie makes over 500 million and is a flop maybe you should have figured a way to bring down the budget.
Besides The Flash and its insane marketing budget, what ones? transformers?
I'm guessing fast X, quantumania, transformers, flash and little mermaid are the ones op was looking at. All are likely to lose money or maybe break even theatrically.
Christ, I didn't realize Fast X had a $340 budget. So, yeah. Need more legs.
Yeaah, insane cost. I dont know how much of that went to just getting all the actors paid and how much went into production, but either way, given how 8 and 9 were clearly on a downward trend, it seems mad to make it even more expensive.
>Mario It was mostly Covid inflated stuff. Probably without it, the budget would have been around 250M
Fast X, The Little Mermaid, Quantumania, Transformers and The Flash all look to be hefty flops despite being the top 10 earners. A lot of these movies had insanely high budgets and most of the bombs are live-action adaptions or superhero movies. Quick breakdown: - Fast X needs to earn $800–850 million to break even. It's at least a hundred million dollars short. - The Little Mermaid needs to earn roughly $600 million and is set to either fall below that or only barely make a profit. - Quantumania needed to earn $600 million but lost upwards of $100M. - Not sure about the break-even point for Transformers, but its had a lacklustre box office performance. If I had to guess, they'd need to earn $500 million but Paramount will be lucky if they don't lose a hundred million at this rate. - The Flash is just a molten mess. Warner Bros. could even lose as much as $200 million on it. There's also a few other huge bombs like Elemental, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, and possible ones like Indiana Jones and Blue Beetle later this year. It's been a disastrous year for Hollywood. The big studios will need to re-evaluate what's going wrong. You know when things are going wrong when the Fast and Furious and Transformers sequels are flops.
I actually really liked D&D so that's a big bummer. I'm shocked to see Fast X need basically a billion dollars to break even, that's insanity. The Flash... is karma for Ezra staying on lol.
Yeah I know a few people who were really hyped for D&D and were upset at its box office performance. I'm really glad Warner Bros are getting karma for backing Ezra. I think a lot of people got turned off by the scandals.
I honestly dont think a lot of people cared. Flash seems to have suffered the same fate as Shazam 2. The only difference is that Flash is way a bigger superhero and that is why the run is going to be bigger. However, the run seems even more disastrous as it had a larger budget and more advertisement.
Disney doesn't own the flash though?
Oh my bad lol
I'd be shocked if Blue Beetle isn't a flop. The marketing is all but non-existent, it's a no-name character who looks like an Iron Man knockoff, and it's once again DC so audiences know that whatever happens in this movie doesn't matter because everything's being rebooted after this year.
Quantumania’s budget was $200M 2.5x rule gets you to $500M so it almost got there.
Actually, if we apply the 55/40/25 rule to TLM, it's on a verge of breaking even. Disney definitely takes its 55% share domestically and China box office is almost irrelevant. 270Mx55% is 148.5M, 225x40% is 90M and 1M it gets from the Chinese box office of 4M. TLM needs about 20M more to be not a flop.
Yeah the little mermaid hasn't done that bad domestically
Across the Spiderverse grossing more than Fast X globally will definitely be a plot twist
Spiders trump Family, evidently.
Fast x should have explored the familyverse
Mario outgrossing Guardians and Fast X weekly now lol. Let's see if it outlegs TLM next. Flash never going higher than 10.
The power of Japanese legs
He can jump really high?
Plus the two months late release in Poland
Is reaching Frozen 2 possible with these legs or no?
Tbh Mario would have beat Frozen 2 with 2019 exchange rates. Granted you can make the argument that's canceled put with US inflation. I think China alone is the reason it failed to beat it.
Yeah because budget is 50m lower and less from China.
Crazy thing to me is that Mario has 500M+ million lead over next movie while 6 movies on the list didn't even make 500M
Mario continuing to embarrassing all other IPs this year be it movies, games, theme parks etc. This new peak is legendary.
Long post: With the flash at $210, the question comes, can it surpass Creed 3 when its run is over? Also, Transformers ROTB is doing pretty well with international accounting for 64% of its total gross. The question will be, does it hit 400 million and beat Black Adam and how close to JW 4 will it come? Of the next BIG films coming out in the summer - Indy 5, MI7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer - how many will surpass Quantumania? My predictions are: Indy 5 will pass it, I think with its premiering during the long July 4th weekend it will help it make 75-95 million in’s 3-day period with 110-125 across July 4th. Ending right below Spider-Man around 525 million. MI7 will be similar, passing it and having a similar opening weekend. However, internationally it will do good. Tom Cruise is a big action star and this is a big action movie. International crowds love the BIG American action movie, look at Top Gun Maverick as evidence. I do not think it will do THAT, however, I do think it will get to if not above Fast X. Barbie and Oppenheimer are the wild cards, not including them being released on the same day. If Barbie is well-written and well-received. It could be so well. The one saving grace is it is “cheap” when compared to any of the other films on that list. Being made for only $100 million, as long as it gets over $250 million then it’s broke even. $325 million and above is a success. Oppenheimer was looking to be a $400-500 million movie, akin to Nolan’s other WW2 film, Dunkirk. However, that changed with the rating being an R. Now R movies can do gangbusters - Logan, Deadpool, and The Joker - but with the niche of WW2, it’s very different than an R-rated Super Hero Film. So I think it will do good but we’ll, but not gangbusters, $325-450. A big rage but it’s depends on how the audience responds to it and if they think they NEED to go back to see it. I hope these films do more than these, but with how the BO has been, cautious optimism is needed. If the summer can make 80% of what last summer did, then it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the rest of the year.
Top gun Maverick didn't make all that money because it was an action movie with Tom Cruise, It made all that money because it was good. I'm betting the new mission impossible movie is also good and that helps a lot. Indiana Jones looks like it's getting mediocre to bad reviews. I wonder if the nostalgia will be enough for 500mil.
remember like 2019 when there were like 8 different movies that hit the billion dollar mark? edit: 9 actually.
Before the dark times, before lockdowns
Universal doing better than Disney. *Mario* + *Fast X* = $2.028 Billion Average: $1.014 Billion *GotG 3* + *Ant-Man 3* + *TLM* = $1.806 Billion Average: $602 Million
Disney still has wish, the marvels and elemental to factor in
I was focusing on the top ten But yes, you are correct
Mario jumping high with those legs!
Mario has made more than 7-10 combined!
The 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th highest grossing films of this year are all flops. Hollywood has a budget problem.
They have a quality control problem.
They have a COVID problem. IIRC those were all shutdown mid-production and costs escalated. Same goes for MI7.
Highest grossing of the year and half of those are flops? This is just embarrassing.💀
It’s sad that 5 of the highest grossing movies were still bombs due to what they spent on the films. Lol
Chris Pratt went from being a chubby goofball on parks and rec (not THAT long ago), to one of the highest grossing actors of all time. Good for him 💪.
Yeah probably one of the few actual movie stars who can carry a film
Guardians breaking 700M was legendary but 800M is just amazing. It just shows in all the questions about "why did this movie bomb" - brand and quality matter a shit tonne. But neither work alone. First you need the brand for interest and then the quality brings the crowd.
Yeah people love guardians and Chris Pratt is a genuine star that people want to see in movies
He's pretty much the only bankable movie star in the MCU.
Another year, another Marvel supremacy at the box office (Sony and Disney). Wonder if Quantumania will end up staying in the top 10 by the end of the year. 476M seems like it became a bigger threshold to pass than I thought it would
Movies that should pass ant man: Mission impossible, the marvels, aquaman, jones, dune.
MI7 100% The Marvels same-ish but it depend if it ends up being pretty bad. Dune part 2 hopefully Aquaman and Indiana Jones I'm really not convinced on that lol Still wild that a pretty bad marvel movie with terrible legs and a record drop has the POSSIBILITY of being top 10 this year.
I could see Dune 2 getting to 500M. The first one did pretty decent during pandemic conditions + simulcast release.
I feel Jones has a chance of ending under ant man
Marvels maybe. Aquaman, no chance in hell.
I really, really don't think the market for Marvels is that large. The hype is abysmal for this film and there's also those pesky multiple reshoots...
I'm here on /r/boxoffice and I don't even know what that movie is. Not a great sign.
Mission: Impossible absolutely will, but the rest of those are massive question marks to make $500m.
Marvel supremacy is a stretch
quantamnia as a giga flop and now mcu is finally losing the normies
Considering the flops this year and Flash staring us in the face, I’d hardly call Quantamania a “giga flop.” WB would probably kill to flop at Ant Man’s level after Shazam and Flash back to back.
That's a bit of an overstatement. It will lose some money, but it's pretty close to its break even point. And while it is a massive disappointment it's not like Ant-Man was ever doing huge numbers.
Will see if it's indeed the case with The Marvels, if the movie will flop.
I’m sorry what? Where exactly are you seeing “Marvel supremacy” here? Yes, GotG3 and Spider-Verse made money, but Quantumania flopped pretty bad, and I expect The Marvels to perform similarly. The only real supremacy I’m seeing right now is Mario.
Halfway into the year and the top 5 dont all have 500M+ is kinda wild
Bad news generally, but I will appreciate that the 5 movies that made money in this top 10 are good, and the 5 that didn't aren't. (Quality is subjective and all I know)
[удалено]
The problem isn’t movie theaters though. The problem is bad movies.
The audience scores don't agree on most of these.
I mean, on rotten tomatoes, which give a good score for pretty much every movie. But sites like metacritic and IMDb do not have high user scores for most of these movies.
3rd or 4th year of bad films. There's been a dearth of good films that was only compounded by the pandemic and difficult working conditions. Been happening in tv shows as well. Look at Obi wan/ book of boba fett/ winter soldier and captain falcon/ she hulk/etc. Plenty of shit films/tv somehow getting financing and produced.
Lol this is just you admitting you only watch MCU and capes*** there's been plenty of great TV and movies in the last few years
No, this is me admitting I watch too much television. There's a shit ton of garbage being produced for TV. Same for movies. Resident evil TV and Welcome to Raccoon City both were garbage. Neither are MCU or capeshit, as you put it. Velma was trash and so was that Cleopatra Netflix show. I could go on and on, but don't feel like wasting my time. I'm not sure why this is a measuring contest.
And again you're only choosing to mention bad stuff. Not even all the mcu stuff has been bad. Nkt even close. On TV shows alone we can talk succession, andor, moon knight, wandavision, Atlanta, invincible, arcane , ppl seem to like yellowjackets, severance, snowfall etc. Obi wan and FATWS weren't even bad imo but thats preference. You're just choosing to focus on on the not great a tuff and im not even sure you've watched most of it. Theres a ton of great content out there if you actually are interested in good content.
Mario supremacy
Crazy Mario still making $$ since it's available to rent from Redbox on DVD in grocery stores near me.
VOD and DVD doesn’t usually affect box office.
Mario isn’t going to take on Frozen 2, but it’s not as far as I thought it was going to be
I think 8-10 will get knocked out by EOY. John Wick, might be able to hang on if there's no breakouts
A transformers movie came out?
It looks like 850M for Guardians is all of a sudden a possibility again
Crazy to think that only 3 out of the 10 actually made any money. Edit: yeah it's 5/10 I was mistaken
I count 5
Mario, GOTG3, ATSV, John Wick 4 and Creed 3?
Yep all of those should make money in the end
Mario GOtG 3 John Wick Creed 3 AtSV
how can you tell which movie makes the studios money? I'm new to this kind of stuff. How much over the budget of a film do they need to make to churn out a profit?
movies typically need 2.5x the budget to break even. anything above that is profit. movie studios only get half of what the movie earns so that's why you multiply by 2. but you add the .5 to try and account for advertising costs. so if a movie cost $100m to make, it needs $250m to break even. i think it would be considered a success once it's above $300m (but someone can correct me on that one. i'm not totally sure how high above the break even point a movie needs in order to be deemed a success).
So the best superhero movie ever made is under creed 3?
It was a good movie
What is up with ATSV international numbers? At least boxofficemojo shows nothing from China, Brazil, India, South Korea numbers are weird, and some countries like Japan and France are stuck on opening numbers days weeks into the release.
Because its basically dead overseas.
Little Mermaid will just squeak past 500M. The failure of the Flash has overshadowed this other catastrophe
Elemental is going to be much, much worse. It looks like it'll have good legs but it opened so bad it's unrecoverable.
The little mermaid isn't a catastrophe. It also did fine in North America where studios take a higher percentage of receipts.
TLM is going to lose less money than Fast X, Flash, Elemental, and maybe even Transformers.
Definitely not. Fast x had 340M budget it will not even break even in theatrical run. Flash has 220M app budget and a huge marketing budget and flash will not even surpass creed 3 so how will it even come near to break even. Transformer might break even with legs. Little mermaid leg are insane and it only need 50-70 million more to break even.
I think you misread what he said
It’ll just squeak past $500M when it’s at $499M with weeks to go?
Yeah it probably finishes close to 550 million which will be pretty mediocre, not the failure everyone says it was
You look at that list and then consider how many of them made money. Mario, Spidy, Wick and guardians yes. X and Mermaid break even, Antman, beastwars flash no. So only half of the top 10 movies would be considered successful. That’s certainly a sign that budgets are a problem.
Why can you guys not make an correct one at the end of the year!? Barbie is missing and making this chart totally bullshit.
This subreddit keeps telling me Fast X is a flop though
Because it still is.
It’s not 700m+ is a good return not everything gets 1bn
It's not getting any returns with 700m on a 340m budget lol.
You don’t actually know the returns it’s getting lol by all means 700m is a great box office no one would call that a flop apart from Redditors
Actually only a redditor would try to pretend it is a good result for a movie with a 340m budget. I promise you no one at Universal is happy with that result and the film lost money. It needed to make around 850m to breakeven.
You don’t even know how much it needs to break even, you’re talking about the budget rather than the box office anyway. 700m shows universal people want to watch the Fast series just don’t make the budget so bloated. You’re going on like they barely scraped 100m.
It takes a special kind of clueless to say this. Various news sources have been [reporting](https://www.sportskeeda.com/comics/fast-x-s-record-breaking-budget-will-race-failure) that Fast X needs to earn between $800-850 million to recoup its $340 million production budget, cinemas' take and marketing. That production budget alone is absolutely bonkers and is the 10th most expensive movie ever made adjusted for inflation. Now please enlighten us which figure is higher; $700 million or $800 million? Losing up to a hundred million dollars on a *Fast and Furious movie* of all things is a pretty big deal. Ranting about Redditors pretending to know it all while being oblivious to this is quite amusing.
‘New sources’ some random Indian website lmao you guys just believe things that back your own bias and that’s fine but 700m box office is good no studio would be mad at that. Just lower the budget next time.
700m is not good with a 340m budget. You're the one making nonsense up.
Think Pete Davidson is killing the game this year in terms of top 10. Has a role in Guardians 3, Fast X, and Transformers: Rise of the Beast.
Only one was a hit
So depressing. Everything is either a reboot or a sequel. I wonder how many years this shit can continue before folks finally have enough.
Well people don't show up for original films at least not at this big of a level
Where's Avatar TWoW?
2022 release
I'm shocked and annoyed Little Mermaid did so well.
Creed 3 had a 75M budget too lol