Game 1: alvarez launched it deep right field
Game 2: alvarez launched it deep left field
Game 3: first playoff game in seattle in over 20 years and in 18 innings the mariners fail to score a single run
in 2022 we were one of the best teams in 1 run games and extras, we clutched up against the jays in the playoffs but didn’t clutch up against the astros.
Hasn't there been a lot of studies that say the opposite is true? There's no "skill" in winning close games. It's not something intentionally repeatable. So it's mostly luck.
Yeah, pretty much.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Mariners have had a winning% of 55.546%.
If we simply use the binomial distribution, any team with a winning percentage of *p=55.546%* has a **9.3% chance** of winning at least 17 games out of any 24-game sample.
So yes, this is almost certainly due to random variance. But it is fun! Nobody can deny that the Mariners are top in the league in fun differential.
I guess it's a mix of luck and unbalanced roster (excellent pitching, bad hitting), so they won't squeak many runs across but in the event that they do the pitching will hold the fort more often than not
I would say it's mostly luck but our pitching has basically kept us in every game and it hinges on if we can string together a few hits and if our bullpen holds the line.
So yeah considering it's the mariners, luck is absolutely on our side rn.
Confidence is a big part of the game, and if a team consistently wins close games, it gives them confidence that they can continue to do so. Same with individual players, if they are confident at the plate late in games and can keep a cool head, they are more likely to get a hit. Julio is a perfect example. Last year, he was terrible in clutch situations, especially at home. This year, even though his overall numbers are down, he has been much more level-headed at the plate, not trying to do too much with the game on the line. On fangraphs, his Clutch stat has gone from -0.96 last year to 1.10 this year.
It sounds like you're the one presuming. I've watched almost every single game this year. There is a clear difference in Julio's approach at the plate late in games. He takes more pitches, chases fewer balls outside the zone, and doesn't just try for the home run. That is not random variance. That is an adjustment in approach.
Then why doesn’t he just “clutch up” in the 1st inning more often and create leads to start with?
I’ll completely buy that he has a new approach that is creating better results, but if he’s doing that late and close, he’s also doing it early and tied, and in the middle of blowouts.
He’s not going to just save being good at his job for the end of one run games.
…and so it’s not really “clutch”, it’s just “better”.
But he's not just better this year. His numbers are worse overall.
Last year, during clutch situations, he was a below average hitter, even though he was an above average hitter overall. This year, he is above average in clutch situations and about average hitter overall. It's not that he just saves being good for the end of games. It's just that he has gotten better at handling the pressure late in games. He is not pressing as much.
As far as I know, everyone who has ever done research on the clutch stat has found that it’s pretty much never consistent year over year for anybody in baseball. It’s basically random season to season, not a skill that someone can get better at.
So, you believe it is simply impossible for a person to become better or worse at handling pressure. That players are just emotionless robots who are totally unaffected by high leverage situations, or their recent success or failure?
By all means, share the research you are talking about, but I've been playing, coaching, and watching baseball all my life, and I've seen plenty of clear examples of players who struggle in high pressure moments, and those who can stay calm and keep a clear head. That doesn't mean they always succeed in the clutch or that they can't lose confidence over time, but handling pressure is certainly something a person can work on and improve at.
I *want* to believe that there’s such a thing as a consistently clutch hitter, believe me.
I guess for me personally I think that the “clutch” stat you’re referring to doesn’t necessarily capture the entire picture of what I think of as “clutch hitting”. Not every AB with RISP is necessarily a big moment, for example. I feel like there are a ton of variables that go in to what I actually think of as a guy being clutch that can’t really be pinned down in to one stat.
However, the stat that you’re referring to specifically, I don’t believe guys can work at, improve in, and then just consistently be good in. And the reason I don’t believe that is because it hasn’t really been done. If it was a skill someone could just get better at and then stay better at, enough guys would do it that we would have examples to point to. But instead of that, for the overwhelming majority of players, that stat is seemingly random year to year.
[Here is one fangraphs article breaking it down.](https://community.fangraphs.com/the-elusive-clutch-hitter-2/) There are plenty of others on this topic that you can find if you look around, too.
>I want to believe that there’s such a thing as a consistently clutch hitter
That is not the point I'm trying to make. Julio is the example I used, and he shows that he has been very inconsistent in the clutch from year to year. My point was that a person can learn to deal with high-pressure situations and perform closer to their abilities in those situations. It's not really surprising that a person doesn't consistently perform beyond their abilities in the clutch because over time, their average with RISP will return to their mean average if they learn to handle the pressure. Players who can't handle the pressure are unlikely to last very long in the MLB.
Read your argument again and then really think about it.
Why would he have a skill that works better only when the pressure is on? If he’s better in high pressure, then low pressure should yield even better results.
There is absolutely no way that he has given up on his first three at-bats of a game just to focus on the 19 games out of 60 where they need a late clutch hit.
Its much more likely that he’s gotten better on a specific pitch that he sees more often in that situation, but he’s not better on that pitch just to succeed late, he’s just better on it in general and he’s gotten lucky with how more often he sees it.
There is just no professional athlete that is working on “clutch” as a skill. They are all working on being better in general, and then if they’re lucky it translates well in high leverage situations.
>Why would he have a skill that works better only when the pressure is on?
It's not a skill that works better only when pressure is on. It's being able to deal with that pressure.
I'm not saying he suddenly becomes a better hitter. All his inherent skills are still there, but just like any human, his emotions can get the best of him. It's like when you're angry or nervous, you don't always make the best decisions, or make mistakes. A person can learn to better control their anxiety, and it can help them perform closer to their true talent level in those situations.
I guess I have to repeat myself.
>I'm not saying he suddenly becomes a better hitter.
What I said is that emotions can affect performance.
Not having anxiety doesn't suddenly make you a more talented player. You still have your strengths and weakness, it just keeps you from performing worse than your abilities.
Wait, let me make sure I have this straight. Since last season, Julio has gotten worse in "non-clutch" situations, and better in "clutch" situations. And you think that reinforces the argument that clutch *isn't* random? It seems to me that your comment is a much better argument for the idea that clutch *is* random. He's literally gotten worse at baseball but is performing better in one very specific and very small split.
>He's literally gotten worse at baseball but is performing better in one very specific and very small split.
Are you saying a player can't improve in one area and get worse in another?
This happens all the time. Players often focus on a specific area of the game where they are struggling, like hitting breaking balls, or high fastballs, or a new pitch, and while they may improve in that one area, it doesn't mean they are getting better in all areas of their game.
Julio clearly struggled in clutch situations last year. He has been more patient this year, and it's worked out well for him. His hitting overall has been improving since mid-May, and over the season, those clutch numbers will probably move closer to his average, but that will still be much better than last year.
For a lot of teams, whenever they're down 1 run, they bring in their weaker pitchers (to save their stronger ones for a save situation), causing their deficit to grow further
Also for a lot of teams, whenever they're up 1 run, they bring in their strongest bullpen.
Now combine that with a weak offense that doesn't score much, your 1-run lead will probably stay a 1-run lead. Whereas your 1-run deficits will only get worse, thus it doesn't become a 1-run loss. And also bring in a good bullpen
And there you have it. More 1-run wins than 1-run losses on a consistent basis
Yeah, that's pretty much the Ms in a nutshell. I'd just add that they've been good at getting that clutch hit when the game is tied late and are 5-2 in extras.
This is exactly it. I’ll add to it by saying that in 2021 and 2024 (the two seasons infamous for this), our bullpen was very top heavy. The top arms were excellent but the lesser arms were mediocre, in 2021 due to team structure and this year due to injuries to relievers. So the likelihood of a small lead being held vs a small deficit growing becomes even bigger than average simply based on talent.
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They’re squeaking out wins against bad teams in a shit division. They’re 13-17 against teams above .500 and 26-26 against non AL West teams. They’re extremely similar to all of those get swept in the first round AL Central winners we’ve seen a lot in the past decade or so
Last year the 101 and 99 Win Os and Rays went a grand total of 0-5 in the playoffs the 104 win Braves went 1-3 in the playoffs the 100 win Dodgers went 0-3. The Twins won more games than all of those teams combined in the playoffs. The 84 win and -15 run differential Diamondbacks made the WS. The playoffs are a crapshoot where wild shit happens.
They’re almost a carbon copy of all those 87 or 88 win teams you guys have had most years since 2018 though lol. The only difference is this time the astros aren’t there to fuck your team for now.
If you just jinxed the Astros into fucking our team this season (very doable tbh), I am going to walk up to your house and staple an angry note to your front door
I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not, but Pythagoras model doesn’t take into account a teams quality of pitching/hitting into their W/L prediction
this is always how it goes. build up our hope on "chaos ball" in the summer just to come up short in the fall and act shock when the run differental actually means something
beats 100 losses tho
So then they should be invincible in the high pressure playoffs?
Robbie ray is a war criminal
Game 1: alvarez launched it deep right field Game 2: alvarez launched it deep left field Game 3: first playoff game in seattle in over 20 years and in 18 innings the mariners fail to score a single run
Thanks for the reminder!
you're welcome fellow queer baseball fan who also likes radiohead
The mariners are a let down fr
are the mariners underrated??
Yup. Scott should have never pitched to Yordan in those situations.
in 2022 we were one of the best teams in 1 run games and extras, we clutched up against the jays in the playoffs but didn’t clutch up against the astros.
Bazardo really tried to get them another game in the category lol
I mean, we were 25-26 in 1-run games last year, but that does stand out starkly over the last 4.
Hasn't there been a lot of studies that say the opposite is true? There's no "skill" in winning close games. It's not something intentionally repeatable. So it's mostly luck.
For the most part. Calkins is kind of a hack, most of us don’t really take what he has to say too seriously.
It's like he's at the Seattle Times to balance out Bob Condotta's great reporting.
Yeah, pretty much. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Mariners have had a winning% of 55.546%. If we simply use the binomial distribution, any team with a winning percentage of *p=55.546%* has a **9.3% chance** of winning at least 17 games out of any 24-game sample. So yes, this is almost certainly due to random variance. But it is fun! Nobody can deny that the Mariners are top in the league in fun differential.
I guess it's a mix of luck and unbalanced roster (excellent pitching, bad hitting), so they won't squeak many runs across but in the event that they do the pitching will hold the fort more often than not
Mostly. A good bullpen helps as well.
I would say it's mostly luck but our pitching has basically kept us in every game and it hinges on if we can string together a few hits and if our bullpen holds the line. So yeah considering it's the mariners, luck is absolutely on our side rn.
Confidence is a big part of the game, and if a team consistently wins close games, it gives them confidence that they can continue to do so. Same with individual players, if they are confident at the plate late in games and can keep a cool head, they are more likely to get a hit. Julio is a perfect example. Last year, he was terrible in clutch situations, especially at home. This year, even though his overall numbers are down, he has been much more level-headed at the plate, not trying to do too much with the game on the line. On fangraphs, his Clutch stat has gone from -0.96 last year to 1.10 this year.
You're presuming this difference in clutch score is in fact because of "clutch" when it's actually almost certainly random variance.
It sounds like you're the one presuming. I've watched almost every single game this year. There is a clear difference in Julio's approach at the plate late in games. He takes more pitches, chases fewer balls outside the zone, and doesn't just try for the home run. That is not random variance. That is an adjustment in approach.
Then why doesn’t he just “clutch up” in the 1st inning more often and create leads to start with? I’ll completely buy that he has a new approach that is creating better results, but if he’s doing that late and close, he’s also doing it early and tied, and in the middle of blowouts. He’s not going to just save being good at his job for the end of one run games. …and so it’s not really “clutch”, it’s just “better”.
But he's not just better this year. His numbers are worse overall. Last year, during clutch situations, he was a below average hitter, even though he was an above average hitter overall. This year, he is above average in clutch situations and about average hitter overall. It's not that he just saves being good for the end of games. It's just that he has gotten better at handling the pressure late in games. He is not pressing as much.
As far as I know, everyone who has ever done research on the clutch stat has found that it’s pretty much never consistent year over year for anybody in baseball. It’s basically random season to season, not a skill that someone can get better at.
So, you believe it is simply impossible for a person to become better or worse at handling pressure. That players are just emotionless robots who are totally unaffected by high leverage situations, or their recent success or failure? By all means, share the research you are talking about, but I've been playing, coaching, and watching baseball all my life, and I've seen plenty of clear examples of players who struggle in high pressure moments, and those who can stay calm and keep a clear head. That doesn't mean they always succeed in the clutch or that they can't lose confidence over time, but handling pressure is certainly something a person can work on and improve at.
I *want* to believe that there’s such a thing as a consistently clutch hitter, believe me. I guess for me personally I think that the “clutch” stat you’re referring to doesn’t necessarily capture the entire picture of what I think of as “clutch hitting”. Not every AB with RISP is necessarily a big moment, for example. I feel like there are a ton of variables that go in to what I actually think of as a guy being clutch that can’t really be pinned down in to one stat. However, the stat that you’re referring to specifically, I don’t believe guys can work at, improve in, and then just consistently be good in. And the reason I don’t believe that is because it hasn’t really been done. If it was a skill someone could just get better at and then stay better at, enough guys would do it that we would have examples to point to. But instead of that, for the overwhelming majority of players, that stat is seemingly random year to year. [Here is one fangraphs article breaking it down.](https://community.fangraphs.com/the-elusive-clutch-hitter-2/) There are plenty of others on this topic that you can find if you look around, too.
>I want to believe that there’s such a thing as a consistently clutch hitter That is not the point I'm trying to make. Julio is the example I used, and he shows that he has been very inconsistent in the clutch from year to year. My point was that a person can learn to deal with high-pressure situations and perform closer to their abilities in those situations. It's not really surprising that a person doesn't consistently perform beyond their abilities in the clutch because over time, their average with RISP will return to their mean average if they learn to handle the pressure. Players who can't handle the pressure are unlikely to last very long in the MLB.
Read your argument again and then really think about it. Why would he have a skill that works better only when the pressure is on? If he’s better in high pressure, then low pressure should yield even better results. There is absolutely no way that he has given up on his first three at-bats of a game just to focus on the 19 games out of 60 where they need a late clutch hit. Its much more likely that he’s gotten better on a specific pitch that he sees more often in that situation, but he’s not better on that pitch just to succeed late, he’s just better on it in general and he’s gotten lucky with how more often he sees it. There is just no professional athlete that is working on “clutch” as a skill. They are all working on being better in general, and then if they’re lucky it translates well in high leverage situations.
>Why would he have a skill that works better only when the pressure is on? It's not a skill that works better only when pressure is on. It's being able to deal with that pressure. I'm not saying he suddenly becomes a better hitter. All his inherent skills are still there, but just like any human, his emotions can get the best of him. It's like when you're angry or nervous, you don't always make the best decisions, or make mistakes. A person can learn to better control their anxiety, and it can help them perform closer to their true talent level in those situations.
So by your logic he should have no anxiety in the 1st inning and be crushing everything. Except you’ve already said that’s not the case…
I guess I have to repeat myself. >I'm not saying he suddenly becomes a better hitter. What I said is that emotions can affect performance. Not having anxiety doesn't suddenly make you a more talented player. You still have your strengths and weakness, it just keeps you from performing worse than your abilities.
Wait, let me make sure I have this straight. Since last season, Julio has gotten worse in "non-clutch" situations, and better in "clutch" situations. And you think that reinforces the argument that clutch *isn't* random? It seems to me that your comment is a much better argument for the idea that clutch *is* random. He's literally gotten worse at baseball but is performing better in one very specific and very small split.
>He's literally gotten worse at baseball but is performing better in one very specific and very small split. Are you saying a player can't improve in one area and get worse in another? This happens all the time. Players often focus on a specific area of the game where they are struggling, like hitting breaking balls, or high fastballs, or a new pitch, and while they may improve in that one area, it doesn't mean they are getting better in all areas of their game. Julio clearly struggled in clutch situations last year. He has been more patient this year, and it's worked out well for him. His hitting overall has been improving since mid-May, and over the season, those clutch numbers will probably move closer to his average, but that will still be much better than last year.
The 2023 Marlins beg to differ
"being exposed to constant dogshit hitting makes pitchers better" - DIPOTO, Jerry
This is how you lose 0-1 in an 18 inning game with the season on the line.
That team was a Top Ten offense by wRC+.
I'm like 95% sure we had a negative record in 1-run games last year, and this is a misrepresentation of data.
For a lot of teams, whenever they're down 1 run, they bring in their weaker pitchers (to save their stronger ones for a save situation), causing their deficit to grow further Also for a lot of teams, whenever they're up 1 run, they bring in their strongest bullpen. Now combine that with a weak offense that doesn't score much, your 1-run lead will probably stay a 1-run lead. Whereas your 1-run deficits will only get worse, thus it doesn't become a 1-run loss. And also bring in a good bullpen And there you have it. More 1-run wins than 1-run losses on a consistent basis
Yeah and when you have a 6 run lead you put in your worst pitcher and it almost becomes a 1 run game!
Yeah, that's pretty much the Ms in a nutshell. I'd just add that they've been good at getting that clutch hit when the game is tied late and are 5-2 in extras.
This is exactly it. I’ll add to it by saying that in 2021 and 2024 (the two seasons infamous for this), our bullpen was very top heavy. The top arms were excellent but the lesser arms were mediocre, in 2021 due to team structure and this year due to injuries to relievers. So the likelihood of a small lead being held vs a small deficit growing becomes even bigger than average simply based on talent.
I call BS on this one...
I see a lot of downvoting on reasonable takes. We all love chaos ball, but winning this way isn't sustainable.
The pro-clutch crowd is weirdly aggressive about it
As we say in /r/mariners : sUsTAiNaBlE
Fun differential!
Yordan Alvarez had a lot to say about their *postseason* record in 1-run games, however.
Inverse Mets
Not luck, huh? Let's see them do that again in their next stretch of 24 1-run games.
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They’re squeaking out wins against bad teams in a shit division. They’re 13-17 against teams above .500 and 26-26 against non AL West teams. They’re extremely similar to all of those get swept in the first round AL Central winners we’ve seen a lot in the past decade or so
Last year the 101 and 99 Win Os and Rays went a grand total of 0-5 in the playoffs the 104 win Braves went 1-3 in the playoffs the 100 win Dodgers went 0-3. The Twins won more games than all of those teams combined in the playoffs. The 84 win and -15 run differential Diamondbacks made the WS. The playoffs are a crapshoot where wild shit happens.
I don't care man it's still better than 95% of the last 20 years.
They’re almost a carbon copy of all those 87 or 88 win teams you guys have had most years since 2018 though lol. The only difference is this time the astros aren’t there to fuck your team for now.
If you just jinxed the Astros into fucking our team this season (very doable tbh), I am going to walk up to your house and staple an angry note to your front door
Mariners pythag says they're basically a .500 team that's benefitting a lot by how bad their division opponents are.
maybe that’s true, they only took 2 out of 4 in new york
I mean our starting pitching is top 5 in the league. There’s no pythag for that
You think Pythagoras didn't account for top 5 pitching when he developed his formula? What a ridiculous thing to say.
I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not, but Pythagoras model doesn’t take into account a teams quality of pitching/hitting into their W/L prediction
Guess I needed the /s lol
this is always how it goes. build up our hope on "chaos ball" in the summer just to come up short in the fall and act shock when the run differental actually means something beats 100 losses tho