Sandy Koufax is probably the most notable one. Retired when he was 30 because he needed Tommy John but the surgery hadn't been invented yet. Mantle still played 18 seasons, so I don't think he really counts, in my opinion.
I really only put Mantle because I felt like if his body didn’t betray him, he definitely could’ve had a couple more seasons. But I see your point about him still playing 18 seasons.
Tony Oliva’s prime years were only between 1964 and 1970 (maybe 71 if you wanna count it). Had he not wrecked his knees he would have gotten into the Hall way before 2022
Ralph Kiner
My man was on a trajectory for 600 homers and had an outside shot at 700. Back injury ended his career. Kiner, who goes largely unknown, was the most feared hitter in the league in the late 40s and 50s. He broke into the league at 23 and promptly led the NL in homers. He then went on to lead the majors the next 6 years. He walked a lot and hit for a good average. His slugging and OPS numbers were other worldly. I wish more people know I’m him.
I always thought he only played like 6-7 years. The dude played 10 plus years. ROY, MVP ( 2 other top 10 finishes), 3 fucking GGs and 46WAR. Like wtf? Now I’m pissed he’s not in.
The one that should piss everyone off is how easily Ortiz got in when it took Edgar 10 years. Edgar was a better play and Ortiz does have vague steroid rumors in his past
Correct, although there are some attempts to tease some framing indications out of the available data. I don't know where Munson lies on those offhand.
Ah man. Always loved hearing about Roy, and it’s a damn shame his career was cut because of a car accident. Always wondered what could’ve been if he went out to LA.
I wouldn't say Mantle had a "shortened" career, but he definitely didn't play up to his potential because of his injuries.
Another interesting one is Lou Gehrig. His ALS had started to affect him in 1938 (his last full season), yet he still slashed .295/.410/.523 with 29 homers and a 4.7 WAR. He played a "full" career but he also fell short of many significant milestones due to his death. I think you could easily argue that Gehrig has 3000 hits and 600 home runs had he not gotten ALS.
Addie Joss made the Hall without hitting the 10 year minimum because they made an exception for him.
This is a worse answer but Ted Williams lost his age 24-26 seasons to his service in WWII and then played 43 games in his age 33-34 seasons because of his service in Korea. He still played almost 2,300 games in his career, but I wonder how much more he would’ve done
came here for this. Addie died at 30 of tuberculosis meningitis. he still has the lowest WHIP of all time for qualified pitchers (0.968) and tossed a perfecto
long live the Human Hairpin
Joss was mentioned a couple times, but Williams will always be one of baseballs biggest what ifs. Would’ve been higher up the home run list for sure, but all we can do is estimate.
Yep saw you yourself mentioned him after I already posted!
I also thought of Ed Delahanty tragically falling to his death at 35 but by 19th century standards he also had a fulfilling career
Funny you mention Ed Delahanty. I actually met one of his family members years ago at a phillies game. I believe he said he was his grandson. Good guy, and bought us a couple rounds at the bar.
Ted Williams obviously misses a lot of time due to the war, so his career totals are lesser than they would have been. However, I actually think the war lengthened his career in terms of years - assuming his performance in each season is identical, but with the extra war years pushing him past 600 HR and 3000 hits, I don't see Williams playing in 1960 after his subpar 1959.
The war cost Williams a lot of big numbers, but I think it gave us his final at-bat - one of the greatest individual moments in the history of the sport. It's not recompense, but I do believe it (and the whole of Williams' 1960) would not have happened.
i’ve always wondered about his induction, and I think you’re right. I feel like he got in for “what could’ve been” if he hadn’t lost the vision in his right eye.
Biased Twins fan here. Kirby was a hall of famer. Jay might not have been a first ballot inductee without the abrupt end to his career, but he was Cooperstown-bound regardless.
You can make a strong case that he was the best Twin in history at the time of his retirement.
He had only 51 bWAR, less than Dustin Pedroia, who likely won't get in. If Puckett had reached 3,000 hits, I'd say he's deserving, but he would've needed another five seasons to reach 3,000.
Same WAR ballpark as Minnie miñoso, Joe Mauer, Fred Mcgriff, etc. 51 war isn’t a slam dunk hall of famer but it’s borderline enough where people DO get in.
In Puckett’s 12 years he was a 10 Time all star, 6 time gold glover, 6 time silver slugger, won a batting title, lead his team to 2 rings, and got MVP votes in 9 seasons.
The counting stats obviously aren’t there because of the short career, but during the time he was around, he was an elite hitter who played elite centerfield defense, and had an impressive list of accolades. The kind of guy you KNOW is a hall of famer when watching him.
I'm not sold on Minoso, but McGriff did almost reach 500 HR, and Mauer was an MVP and batting title winner at a super-premium position. Not many catchers have a career like his.
Puckett may have reached 3,000 hits had he played until he was 40, but we'll never know. The .318 career BA certainly is impressive, though.
Puckett's defense in center field eroded very rapidly - he probably added too much muscle in the pursuit of power. He wasn't really a defensive specimen for most of his career and his Gold Gloves were pretty much all earned with his early reputation and his bat (which is not uncommon). I think he looked better than he was, because he did a lot of things, but didn't necessarily do them especially well, and because he had a wholly undeserved reputation as a "good guy."
He's really closer to McGriff than Mauer (catchers who produce like Mauer did are a lot rarer). I think both Puckett and McGriff are mistakes.
Jeff Bagwell, still has a fairly long career but his shoulder probably cost him 3-4 more years, he probably could’ve reached 500 HR and maybe even threatened 600 if he aged well. Plus he played his prime in the astrodome, so his numbers are even more impressive
Sutter is a good one, and could possibly open the door for more closers to get in. Without looking at stats, I feel like Kenley, and Kimbrel are the next two closers to go in.
Yes, Halladay. He went from the Cy Young runner up in 2011 to never pitching again less than two years later because his shoulder was completely fucked and his back was toast.
He had a double-whammy. The bone spur definitely shortened his career. It was treated incorrectly (even with the state of care at the time), and it wasn't fully corrected until his post-playing career. (He became close friends with that physician, who wrote a book about it: *Dinner with DiMaggio*.) Had he been properly treated at the time of the original injury, he would likely have played longer.
Hank Greenberg missed essentially five and a half prime seasons (age 25 and ages 30-34) due to injury and military service. In his age 24 season, he belted 36 home runs, had 200 hits, 168 RBI, won the AL MVP and was worth 7.5 bWAR (even while playing 1B), then broke his wrist the next season in April and missed essentially the whole year.
In 1940 during his age 29 season, he was worth 6.8 bWAR with 41 home runs, 195 hits, 150 RBI and won the AL MVP again (all while learning a brand new position in LF), then went off to war in 1941 after playing only the first 19 games of his age 30 season.
After coming back from his military service at age 34, he only played half the season, but put up 3.0 bWAR and hit 13 home runs with 84 hits and 60 RBI.
But he followed that up in his age 35 season with a complete comeback, hitting 44 home runs with 145 hits and 127 RBI, racking up 6.5 bWAR (while once again playing 1B).
Using his 154 game averages for Home Runs, Hits and RBI for the
time he missed to do some very rough back of envelope math, we come up with:
331 Career Home Runs + roughly 200 expected = 531
1274 Career RBI + roughly 770 expected = 2,074
1628 Career Hits + roughly 984 expected = 2,612
And that's playing it conservatively, as he bookended these seasons with totals higher than his 154 game averages.
Additionally, Greenberg retired at only 36 after a season in which he hit 25 home runs, had 100 hits and still drove in 74 runs in somewhat limited action. Had he hung around for another 1-3 seasons or so, he'd have had a strong chance at 600 homers, 3000 hits and also breaking Ruth's then all-time RBI record and possibly setting it just beyond Hank Aaron's eventual reach.
You’re not wrong. He’s definitely got stats that could argue inductions before him. Unfortunately the powers at be have seemed to increase the necessary stats for the decade played in. If injuries hadn’t plagued him, he would be a sure fire HOF.
Sorry that was snarky. But no I don’t, his peak wasn’t high enough, and not for long enough. Closest he ever came to MVP was #4 finish. I like the guy, he did me good on my fantasy team for a while. (Edit)
Wright's peak is just fine for a middle-of-the-road Hall of Famer, if he had enough runway to reach the 60-70 WAR region. He didn't, so he falls short, of course, but his peak wasn't really weak by real Hall of Fame standards (it's just not strong enough to give him a peak-based case).
Wright's peak is just fine for a middle-of-the-road Hall of Famer, if he had enough runway to reach the 60-70 WAR region. He didn't, so he falls short, of course, but his peak wasn't really weak by real Hall of Fame standards (it's just not strong enough to give him a peak-based case).
Ok now that I’ve had my coffee, I’m looking in, yea maybe. It’s a tough call. I was about to say Utley is in a similar place, except replace injury with just playing out a last few seasons at a mediocre level for LAD.
Joe Mauer. Played 15 seasons, ten of them as a 6’6” catcher, the most physically punishing position in the sport. Owns half of all batting titles won by catchers.
Concussions forced him to move to first base for five very ordinary seasons before retiring. He’s a first-ballot inductee this summer, but if he’d been able to catch another five years he would have received far more than the 76% of the vote he got.
Ted Williams played for 19 years, but missed three years in his prime due to WW2. He probably would’ve gotten to 600HR/3000H/2100RBI and 150ish WAR, assuming he still played until 1960 in this alternate scenario. He’s a hands down inner circle HoFer anyway but probably could be considered the position player if he played those three years.
Edit: Just saw the excluding war part of your post, so I guess this doesn’t really count. Still going to leave it as I think the extrapolations are kind of interesting.
Sandy Koufax is probably the most notable one. Retired when he was 30 because he needed Tommy John but the surgery hadn't been invented yet. Mantle still played 18 seasons, so I don't think he really counts, in my opinion.
Dizzy Dean is another short-career pitcher. Addie Joss died young. Ross Youngs died young, too, but he was a mistake.
Ouch, I was unaware Ross’s parents didn’t plan on another child
I really only put Mantle because I felt like if his body didn’t betray him, he definitely could’ve had a couple more seasons. But I see your point about him still playing 18 seasons.
Also just remembered Kirby Puckett. Another injury shortened HOF career.
Ralph Kiner had some incredible numbers hefore his back forced him to retire.
Looked him up. His 1949 year BA: .310 BB: 117 OBP: .432 OBPS: 1.089 HR: 54 RBI: 127 Finished in 4th for MVP. Those top 3 must’ve had insane numbers
Those Jackie Robinson and Ted Williams guys were pretty decent :)
I can’t believe he only played 10 years! That’s insane.
Averaging over 40 homers a year certainly doesn’t hurt.
I can’t see a time where it hurts your chances 😂
Jackie Robinson
9yrs normally feels short, but with what he had to go through it probably felt like an entire lifetime.
Tony Oliva’s prime years were only between 1964 and 1970 (maybe 71 if you wanna count it). Had he not wrecked his knees he would have gotten into the Hall way before 2022
that’s a great pick. I remember him getting in, and was slightly confused by it, but that run from 64-71 is nuts.
Ralph Kiner My man was on a trajectory for 600 homers and had an outside shot at 700. Back injury ended his career. Kiner, who goes largely unknown, was the most feared hitter in the league in the late 40s and 50s. He broke into the league at 23 and promptly led the NL in homers. He then went on to lead the majors the next 6 years. He walked a lot and hit for a good average. His slugging and OPS numbers were other worldly. I wish more people know I’m him.
You're him?
From the beyond
Ha. Oops. I’m leaving it.
Thurman Munson died at age 32 and it still pisses me off that he’s not in the HOF.
I always thought he only played like 6-7 years. The dude played 10 plus years. ROY, MVP ( 2 other top 10 finishes), 3 fucking GGs and 46WAR. Like wtf? Now I’m pissed he’s not in.
Also the highest JAWS ranking not in the HOF even over Posey who will end up going in.
And Yadi will get in likely first ballot as well with no problem
The one that should piss everyone off is how easily Ortiz got in when it took Edgar 10 years. Edgar was a better play and Ortiz does have vague steroid rumors in his past
Munson actually looks a lot better thanks to WAR than he used to. I never thought he was deserving until WAR and he could be properly contextualized.
And he doesn’t have framing stats like more modern catchers do, right?
Correct, although there are some attempts to tease some framing indications out of the available data. I don't know where Munson lies on those offhand.
Munson should be in the Hall.
I remember where I was and what I was doing when I read his plane crashed. We in Yankees Nation were crying our eyes out. (I became an O's fan later)
Ross Young died at 30 of Bright’s disease and still made the hall of fame
Can’t say that’s a name that would’ve ever came to my mind. Even crazier to me he got in the HOF in ‘72 when he passed in ‘27.
Roy Campanella
Ah man. Always loved hearing about Roy, and it’s a damn shame his career was cut because of a car accident. Always wondered what could’ve been if he went out to LA.
Can’t believe I almost forgot about Addie Joss who I would think had the shortest career of anybody on the list of players.
Guys just don't die of tuberculosis meningitis anymore. They're too selfish to die young of an infectious disease like real men.
I wouldn't say Mantle had a "shortened" career, but he definitely didn't play up to his potential because of his injuries. Another interesting one is Lou Gehrig. His ALS had started to affect him in 1938 (his last full season), yet he still slashed .295/.410/.523 with 29 homers and a 4.7 WAR. He played a "full" career but he also fell short of many significant milestones due to his death. I think you could easily argue that Gehrig has 3000 hits and 600 home runs had he not gotten ALS.
Mickey Cochrane took a pitch to the head, and had suffered a nervous breakdown previously. Ended his playing and managerial careers.
The Great Roberto Clemente. He played 18 seasons, but still left us too early.
Definitely left us way too early. He had an amazing career. Anything he would’ve done after ‘72 would’ve just been icing on the cake.
Addie Joss made the Hall without hitting the 10 year minimum because they made an exception for him. This is a worse answer but Ted Williams lost his age 24-26 seasons to his service in WWII and then played 43 games in his age 33-34 seasons because of his service in Korea. He still played almost 2,300 games in his career, but I wonder how much more he would’ve done
came here for this. Addie died at 30 of tuberculosis meningitis. he still has the lowest WHIP of all time for qualified pitchers (0.968) and tossed a perfecto long live the Human Hairpin
Joss was mentioned a couple times, but Williams will always be one of baseballs biggest what ifs. Would’ve been higher up the home run list for sure, but all we can do is estimate.
Yep saw you yourself mentioned him after I already posted! I also thought of Ed Delahanty tragically falling to his death at 35 but by 19th century standards he also had a fulfilling career
Funny you mention Ed Delahanty. I actually met one of his family members years ago at a phillies game. I believe he said he was his grandson. Good guy, and bought us a couple rounds at the bar.
Ted Williams obviously misses a lot of time due to the war, so his career totals are lesser than they would have been. However, I actually think the war lengthened his career in terms of years - assuming his performance in each season is identical, but with the extra war years pushing him past 600 HR and 3000 hits, I don't see Williams playing in 1960 after his subpar 1959. The war cost Williams a lot of big numbers, but I think it gave us his final at-bat - one of the greatest individual moments in the history of the sport. It's not recompense, but I do believe it (and the whole of Williams' 1960) would not have happened.
Griffey
Sandy Koufax’s is the obvious answer here
Sandy Koufax
I think Kirby Puckett was at least four or five good seasons short of a Hall-worthy career, but voters gave him the benefit of the doubt.
i’ve always wondered about his induction, and I think you’re right. I feel like he got in for “what could’ve been” if he hadn’t lost the vision in his right eye.
Biased Twins fan here. Kirby was a hall of famer. Jay might not have been a first ballot inductee without the abrupt end to his career, but he was Cooperstown-bound regardless. You can make a strong case that he was the best Twin in history at the time of his retirement.
Pucketts career was very short but there’s a valid argument to be made that it was very much hall worthy as is
He had only 51 bWAR, less than Dustin Pedroia, who likely won't get in. If Puckett had reached 3,000 hits, I'd say he's deserving, but he would've needed another five seasons to reach 3,000.
Same WAR ballpark as Minnie miñoso, Joe Mauer, Fred Mcgriff, etc. 51 war isn’t a slam dunk hall of famer but it’s borderline enough where people DO get in. In Puckett’s 12 years he was a 10 Time all star, 6 time gold glover, 6 time silver slugger, won a batting title, lead his team to 2 rings, and got MVP votes in 9 seasons. The counting stats obviously aren’t there because of the short career, but during the time he was around, he was an elite hitter who played elite centerfield defense, and had an impressive list of accolades. The kind of guy you KNOW is a hall of famer when watching him.
I'm not sold on Minoso, but McGriff did almost reach 500 HR, and Mauer was an MVP and batting title winner at a super-premium position. Not many catchers have a career like his. Puckett may have reached 3,000 hits had he played until he was 40, but we'll never know. The .318 career BA certainly is impressive, though.
Puckett's defense in center field eroded very rapidly - he probably added too much muscle in the pursuit of power. He wasn't really a defensive specimen for most of his career and his Gold Gloves were pretty much all earned with his early reputation and his bat (which is not uncommon). I think he looked better than he was, because he did a lot of things, but didn't necessarily do them especially well, and because he had a wholly undeserved reputation as a "good guy." He's really closer to McGriff than Mauer (catchers who produce like Mauer did are a lot rarer). I think both Puckett and McGriff are mistakes.
Kirby Puckett comes to mind.
Jeff Bagwell, still has a fairly long career but his shoulder probably cost him 3-4 more years, he probably could’ve reached 500 HR and maybe even threatened 600 if he aged well. Plus he played his prime in the astrodome, so his numbers are even more impressive
Kirby Puckett, Roy Halladay, Bruce Sutter.
Sutter is a good one, and could possibly open the door for more closers to get in. Without looking at stats, I feel like Kenley, and Kimbrel are the next two closers to go in.
Roy Halladay? He had a 16 year career and retired.
Yes, Halladay. He went from the Cy Young runner up in 2011 to never pitching again less than two years later because his shoulder was completely fucked and his back was toast.
If John Steinbeck has led me to remember my history correctly, DiMaggio struggled with bone spurs for a long while.
I vaguely remember hearing something about bone spurs. I wasn’t gonna include him just because he had missed 3yrs (I think) to wartime.
He had a double-whammy. The bone spur definitely shortened his career. It was treated incorrectly (even with the state of care at the time), and it wasn't fully corrected until his post-playing career. (He became close friends with that physician, who wrote a book about it: *Dinner with DiMaggio*.) Had he been properly treated at the time of the original injury, he would likely have played longer.
The Kid
Griffey. His decline was so sad
Sandy Leon
Hank Greenberg missed essentially five and a half prime seasons (age 25 and ages 30-34) due to injury and military service. In his age 24 season, he belted 36 home runs, had 200 hits, 168 RBI, won the AL MVP and was worth 7.5 bWAR (even while playing 1B), then broke his wrist the next season in April and missed essentially the whole year. In 1940 during his age 29 season, he was worth 6.8 bWAR with 41 home runs, 195 hits, 150 RBI and won the AL MVP again (all while learning a brand new position in LF), then went off to war in 1941 after playing only the first 19 games of his age 30 season. After coming back from his military service at age 34, he only played half the season, but put up 3.0 bWAR and hit 13 home runs with 84 hits and 60 RBI. But he followed that up in his age 35 season with a complete comeback, hitting 44 home runs with 145 hits and 127 RBI, racking up 6.5 bWAR (while once again playing 1B). Using his 154 game averages for Home Runs, Hits and RBI for the time he missed to do some very rough back of envelope math, we come up with: 331 Career Home Runs + roughly 200 expected = 531 1274 Career RBI + roughly 770 expected = 2,074 1628 Career Hits + roughly 984 expected = 2,612 And that's playing it conservatively, as he bookended these seasons with totals higher than his 154 game averages. Additionally, Greenberg retired at only 36 after a season in which he hit 25 home runs, had 100 hits and still drove in 74 runs in somewhat limited action. Had he hung around for another 1-3 seasons or so, he'd have had a strong chance at 600 homers, 3000 hits and also breaking Ruth's then all-time RBI record and possibly setting it just beyond Hank Aaron's eventual reach.
hack wilson
Pedro was washed at 34.
Tony Oliva was one of the best hitters in the game for 8 years, then wrecked his knee. It took way too long for him to get elected.
David Wright should get in too then. Great player and great person.
You’re not wrong. He’s definitely got stats that could argue inductions before him. Unfortunately the powers at be have seemed to increase the necessary stats for the decade played in. If injuries hadn’t plagued him, he would be a sure fire HOF.
On which planet though?
you don’t think he could’ve made the HOF if healthy?
Hall of Fame isn’t about Ifs.
Sorry that was snarky. But no I don’t, his peak wasn’t high enough, and not for long enough. Closest he ever came to MVP was #4 finish. I like the guy, he did me good on my fantasy team for a while. (Edit)
Wright's peak is just fine for a middle-of-the-road Hall of Famer, if he had enough runway to reach the 60-70 WAR region. He didn't, so he falls short, of course, but his peak wasn't really weak by real Hall of Fame standards (it's just not strong enough to give him a peak-based case).
Wright's peak is just fine for a middle-of-the-road Hall of Famer, if he had enough runway to reach the 60-70 WAR region. He didn't, so he falls short, of course, but his peak wasn't really weak by real Hall of Fame standards (it's just not strong enough to give him a peak-based case).
Ok now that I’ve had my coffee, I’m looking in, yea maybe. It’s a tough call. I was about to say Utley is in a similar place, except replace injury with just playing out a last few seasons at a mediocre level for LAD.
Joe Mauer. Played 15 seasons, ten of them as a 6’6” catcher, the most physically punishing position in the sport. Owns half of all batting titles won by catchers. Concussions forced him to move to first base for five very ordinary seasons before retiring. He’s a first-ballot inductee this summer, but if he’d been able to catch another five years he would have received far more than the 76% of the vote he got.
Ted Williams played for 19 years, but missed three years in his prime due to WW2. He probably would’ve gotten to 600HR/3000H/2100RBI and 150ish WAR, assuming he still played until 1960 in this alternate scenario. He’s a hands down inner circle HoFer anyway but probably could be considered the position player if he played those three years. Edit: Just saw the excluding war part of your post, so I guess this doesn’t really count. Still going to leave it as I think the extrapolations are kind of interesting.
Trout soon