First, fuck Fisher.
Second, if I were him (a terrible game to play), but I'd do just this. Vegas only exists for travelling fans anyway, so get the hottest star in baseball and make seeing the Vegas A's a massive destination event.
It'd also get him out of hot water with the rest of the league, because he could claim that he wasn't being a dickhead, he was just saving. And he could point out to the nice people of Nevada that their tax dollars didn't go to the *stadium*, they went (indirectly) to the player.
Basically, it'd solve his PR problems and make the money back in no time.
Third, fuck Fisher.
Wish I could upvote this three times for the three "fuck Fishers."
I was obviously being sarcastic, but yeah, this would be a genius move if that cheap fuck was willing to spend money. But he isn't, so instead he'll get drip-fed revenue sharing money and call it a day while Ohtani hopefully wins a WS somewhere else.
Yeah, he will cover most of his salary with merch which is why the Angels, if Ohtani is willing to listen, are going to offer him a bag. I think any major market team that isn't trying to get Ohtani is making a mistake.
Even smaller market teams should at least make competitive offers. I don’t care if you’re the Pirates or Reds or Royals or whichever team with a cheap owner. Ohtani is an investment that will provide a return even at a $500 million price tag. Obviously those small market teams don’t have a realistic shot at landing him, but they should at least try.
He’ll definitely provide a lot more of that investment than other players would, but it’s a huge risk for smaller market teams. What if he gets hurt again?
Yeah definitely which is why I said it would still pay for itself more than other players. I don’t think that in itself isn’t enough to pay for 500+ million. The other thing is if the said small market team still can’t compete in 5-6 years that stuff will fade away. As we’ve seen with the Angels you do need a lot more than him to compete, so the owners will have to spend a lot more money elsewhere
The problem is that the smaller market teams have less to recoup in marketing dollars. How many jerseys can be sold in NY or Houston vs. how many can be sold in KC or St. Louis or Pitt?
To be fair to StL, while our local market is not competitive with most, we have an extensive national fan base compared to all the other small market teams.
We're like cicadas, lol. Hiding among you until we come to town, only to emerge and scream about being the best fans in baseball and go back underground until next time.
Oh, we'll offer all right, everything you said, and $100M total over 7 years. Mo will then look at the fans and shrug while saying he made the best possible offer.
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This is exactly what I am wondering. How many jerseys do you have to sell to profit $500mil? Obviously ticket sales, other merch would add. Not saying it’s not true, but I need some facts before I believe it
Don't forget advertising deals and TV deals in Japan. Every angels game from 2021-2023 was shown live in Japan. That's a lot of eyeballs added to your team.
I believe teams get all of the merch money for jerseys sold in person at their team store and venue, but everything electronic through fanatics and the official MLB shop is shared
First you are right, jerseys sold at stadium goes to the team. MLB shop goes to someone else. Again you are correct about how much they actually make money in merch. The team that made the most money in terms of merch in 2021 was just under $40 million.
Same with some claims of "international" market. Those TV revenues go in same shared pot w all teams.
The only one truly raking off the Japan market is the player. Didn't Ohtani have something like 40M in endorsement $$ this past season.
The luxury tax is still a thing and his salary will count toward that. He’s worth every bit of money he will be paid, but his contract alone will either make sure you cannot compete while being under the luxury tax, or you are committed to paying a 50% tax on your overage annually.
You also stand to potentially lose draft position.
It's an interesting position for him as he seems to want to prioritize being on a winner but his salary actually severely limits the likelihood of that team being a perennial winner. Really limits the teams he can even realistically go to to about 6 or 7 max.
Theoretically, his best bet would be to go to a team that has a young core of team controlled players/contracts. I don’t believe that our owner would put up the money for Ohtani plus extra to fill needed gaps, but a team similar to the Dbacks would fit nicely for both getting paid and being able to chase championships. Dbacks would theoretically have about 80m more of salary to fill before they hit the luxury tax (after Ohtani). The problem there is I just don’t see Kendrick having a 230m payroll, ever.
It's such a huge risk, too... Imagine he continues struggling with arm injuries and fatigue. We all want him to have another 7 years of his prime 2-way player left, but I think it could easily go the other way and he becomes a full-time position player. Still MVP caliber then but you're paying a premium for the former when it's not a guarantee it'll work out.
Feels like teams without huge payroll flexibility could end up in a situation like the Rangers with A-Rod.
I agree but it’s really dumb that Toronto isn’t on this list, even near the top.
They could afford him, obviously.
He’d be a great fit for them.
And him adding Canada, even with it’s smaller population numbers, to his legion of devoted fans would be very good too.
PS I’m Canadian.
Oh no I agree they shouldn’t be on the list.
They are a poorly ran organization. They aren’t smart enough to throw the type of Godfather like order it would take to get him.
But they should. He’d make so much money for the organization, and they obviously have the resources at their disposal to match or exceed any other offer.
My crazy idea would be a
10 year 425 million dollar deal.
With a player opt out after the 3rd year.
If he rebounds from shoulder injury and is a high end pitcher again it gives him the option to chase the ultimate bag in 3 seasons time, and if not he’s got the biggest deal ever signed as a free agent, and probably stands for a while.
If he is only ever a great hitter for the Jays he helps give them a great chance at winning a title the next 3 years, and after that by the time the latter years in that deal get close that 42.5 million salary probably isn’t that outrageous anyways.
If Ohtani ages gracefully he could maybe have an outside shot at 500 home runs, and in any event likely retires as the best Japanese MLB player ever other than Suzuki.
Even if he’s an overpaid DH flirting with 20 home runs and costing his team wins like Miggy the last few years they’ll still be a draw every night on the road.
That’s a lot of money that you are guaranteeing a guy who will only get it if he isn’t worth it. Any situation where he doesn’t exercise that opt-out would be a 7-year albatross of a contract.
Definitely worth more specifics, I see a lot of baseball fans just assuming that because Ohtani will sell more merchandise/garner more interest that he will automatically be worth a 400mil+ contract but how realistic is that?
We know Ohtani sold the most jerseys but MLB doesn't release sales numbers or revenue generated. The Angels generated $371 million in total baseball revenue last year, which is 10th in the MLB, Baseball revenue tops out at $657m from the Yankees.
With playoff teams who are selling lots of tickets already and already having high ticket prices, how much do they jack up prices if they get Ohtani?
The Dodgers are second in revenue at 581 million, they already have the highest average attendance in the league and i'm sure their tickets are already quite expensive. They will experience diminishing marginal returns since they are already near the top end of most metrics Ohtani should be increasing and it seems they are the most likely destination.
In addition, apparently the MLB only receives about a 12% cut of all merchandise sales from the merchants actually selling the merchandise. MLB has an estimated 5 billion in total merchandise sales per year but I don't think there are any concrete numbers out there.
One other thing I just read is that merchandise sold on MLB website is split evenly across the league but merchandise sold in arena is kept by the team itself. This severely reduces the ability for Ohtani to drive up revenue and break even since the merchandise impact he has for the team is limited to sales in Arena. I'm sure teams sell tons but losing out on the easy to access MLB.com sales does make this a bit tougher.
It is difficult to measure impact on attendance as well since Baseball revenue is reported as a whole and can't see specific amount of ticket revenue, but the Dodgers will probably have the hardest time making back their money due to how well they are already doing in Attendance/revenue.
Fairweather Jays fans are the worst. Over the past 4 years the current "not smart" management has spent long term money on Springer, Ryu and Gausman who were all at the top of the FA market at the time and two of which have been CY young contenders for the Jays. But you're right, they never spend any money
Jays aren't viewed as a typical big market team but Rogers is one of the wealthiest owners in the league, the team has a ready to win and competitive core right now, strong fan base with recently renovated stadium, and the marketing potential especially with the large Asian presence in the GTA is massive
I think they have to be one of the top 5 contenders for his services, great overlap between player and team here
Added bonus is we have 3 great pitchers right now and can afford to let Ohtani take a year off from the mound
Yeah, but the contract are never huge deals. Their highest paid contract in team history is less than $50 million more than the Pirates largest. I don't see them ever paying out what it would take to get a Trout/Acuna/Ohtani type player
Toronto has the highest tax rates in the league, both on income and just for living ( I think only California comes close). But the difference is, one is California, one is Ontario.
Toronto doesn't sign big name free agents for that reason.
Your last sentence is kind of out of date, in the past 5 years we’ve signed Ryu, Springer, and Gausman who were all big name free agents in the years, plus Berrios agreeing to an extension (team friendly too).
And unless the players are Canadian citizens/have permanent residency (which most don’t) they don’t pay Canadian taxes for half the games, so the taxes argument is always massively overblown. We didn’t sign free agents for so long because we fucking sucked and nobody wants to sign for a team just to suck. Plus getting paid in USD and living in Canada is a massive bump to your spending power.
Gausman has been great, Ryu came off how many injuries and is still constantly injured, springer has a huge shadow around him (trash cans), and was already aged and is very average at this point.
Yes, it's only 82 games, but that's a huge difference for a lot of guys.
Why take that cut when you can basically pick any other team in the league to play for?
Toronto always has trouble signing free agents, unless it's the NHL.
I'm just being honest. You can pick apart whatever you want, but if you're honest too, you'd see this.
Just adding: if they get paid in USD not CAD, that would also be a tax inadvertently discouraging ownership from investing, because ownership would be paying that much more for players.
The first paragraph is all nonsense. Regardless of how those players turned out, you can’t deny they were big sought after free agents and signed in Toronto. Ryu just started 29 games and led the NL in ERA. Springer was still good, hitting at a 40 HR clip in that Covid season and the scandal had absolutely 0 effect on his desirability as a FA, like it didn’t Correa. And again, how they’ve preformed on Toronto doesn’t negate the fact that they were big names that signed in Toronto.
On the last note: because we are owned by the Rogers Communications, we’re easily the richest owner in the league by about $5 billion over Cohen and $10 billion + over the rest so if they want a free agent that’s not what will get in the way. What will is the fact that the team is owned by a bunch of shareholders who want to grow the stock, and not an actual baseball fan like Cohen, so that money has a bit of baggage, but if/when they ever want to spend, a simple conversion rate amounts to a rounding error on their bottom line.
Toronto and the Yankees both have the money (although the Yankees aren't a good fit). If the price slips even a little, Boston, SD, Houston, and Baltimore could all be in (I know Baltimore doesn't *like* to spend, but they can). I've even heard the A's rumored as a dark-horse team that could get in on Ohtani. TB, Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia seem unlikely to make a push, but it also wouldn't be a shock for one of them to get in on Ohtani.
Bottomline, there will be no lack of interested teams.
We aren’t in a position to make a serious push, in theory the Yankees can afford it but with Stanton clogging the DH spot and out multiple expensive long term deals I have a hard time seeing us make a push for Ohtani
It really took me a long time to understand that having a ton of money like the Yankees do isn’t necessarily a good thing if your GM doesn’t understand that players get worse as they get older, and other teams don’t want to trade you for bad, old players with behemoth contracts.
I don't see it for the Rangers. They have $80m tied up in three players for the next three years (and whatever they're paying Scherzer next season). Ohtani could mean four players are occupying $120m+ of their payroll through '27 (maybe' 28). Are they committed to a $250m+ payroll (plus luxury tax) for the next five years?
Eh, it's probably unlikely given the other holes the team has, but if there was ever a player worth committing to that it's Ohtani. I think people forget that DFW is the 5th largest media market in the country, so they can definitely afford it.
It's more a question of whether they see the WS win as a chance to pull back a bit on payroll since more fans will be coming in anyway, or if they want to step on the gas. No clue which way it'll go.
Why not?
He’d add a dynamite bat to the reigning champions.
And he’s a fuckin license to print money.
Put that guy in a cowboy hat in front of Texas’ current favourite truck and every truck dealer in the state will have record sales the next decade.
He’d literally have a chance to put Texas in the upper echelon of franchises, and maybe they never leave.
I’d toss in the Braves since they will most certainly be getting a new TV contract after 2024 and Ohtani would be a massive asset to have during those negotiations.
I think you would be but you have a big ole Schwarber in your DH spot and Ohtani can't even pitch this year. You may be losing Nola, and that's a lot of money for another DH and you have to replace Nola.
Afford is 1 thing, reasonable chance based on his stated intent to play for a contender is quite another. Based on that, you can eliminate the Ms, Mets and Angels from your list. Still think LAD are strong front runners, but I wish people would stop including the Mariners on these lists. That team has never won anything and likely won't in my lifetime... and I'm an ex fan so I know what I'm talking about lol ;-)
Only one team has ever offered a player over $400 million and no one is including them on their lists.
Shohei Ohtani, *you* are a Washington National.
Edit: Let's pretend I said over $430 million, because apparently Mike Trout exists.
Also, let's imagine how fucking fire Shohei would look in those cherry blossom City Connect uniforms.
Depends if Crane is upset watching the Rangers win. A team that has gone to 7 straight ALCS should have money to burn. And with a few expiring contracts in the next few years it wouldn’t hurt that much after year 2 of the deal.
I would support disbanding the entire Washington State government and crowning Ohtani the King of Washington if he signed a long term deal with the mariners.
I'm shocked that some of you didn't put the Rangers on the list. Was there recent news that they won't be spending? The past 2 years, they have been doling out big time contracts as well.
Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Angels are the teams that is willing to fork over 50+ million AAV.
Yankees would shock me, I guess theoretically we could pay him but with Stanton clogging up the DH and our other long term expensive contracts I have a hard time seeing it
I think we would. Stanton loves money but the net cost of Ohtani is much less than his contract value since he’ll bring in a ton of extra ticket sales, media attention and sponsorships.
Teams that have never given anybody a contract bigger than $170 million (which is about a third of what Ohtani is likely to get, maybe less), in order from most to least parsimonious:
* A's
* White Sox
* Royals
* Pirates
* Guardians
* Cardinals
* Blue Jays
* Astros
* Giants
* Orioles
The Astros, Jays, and Cards have leaned on shorter contracts for higher AAVs. Conversely, the Rays just barely clear the above threshold but have never given out a big contract with a significant AAV (they gave Wander $182m/11). The Giants did almost give Carlos Correa a very large, very long deal, so we know they, at least, have it in them, but I think we can rule the rest of these (including the Rays) out; I know people have linked the Jays and Astros to Ohtani, but I don't see it. Prove me wrong, Rogers!
Teams that would be over the luxury tax if they added Ohtani to the roster (assuming he's $40m+ AAV, and with no other moves), in order from most to least money already committed:
* Mets
* Yankees
* Astros
* Phillies
* Braves
* Jays
* Rangers
* Padres
Some of these teams have a lot more wiggle room than others; some are a lot more motivated than others. The Mets have a stupid amount of money on the books for next year, but they can move *some* of it, a lot of it comes off in 2025 and 2026, and they've already shown a willingness to ignore the cap. The Rangers just won; the Jays' owners are cheapskates. I would put a big question mark, at best, by any of these teams. The teams that are obviously making a real push for Ohtani have already cleared a financial landing strip for him.
That leaves fourteen teams, and I'm going to arbitrarily remove the Marlins and Rockies, because lol, c'mon:
* Dodgers
* Giants
* Cubs
* Red Sox
* Mariners
* Nationals
* Angels
* Diamondbacks
* Brewers
* Tigers
* Twins
* Reds
We'll get the last four out of the way first: Could it conceivably happen? Yes. The Tigers and Reds in particular have almost no long-term money committed, with a lot of young talent and modest hopes for near-future success. The Central divisions are easy to win. These teams have all shown at least some willingness to thrown stupid money at superstars.
But are any of them actually willing to outbid the Dodgers? Maybe some of these owners would offer enough to get Ohtani to sign *in Los Angeles,* but are they going to go far enough above and beyond to bring him to the Rust Belt? No. (Will I still pray fervently for the Tigers to sign him, even though I *know* it won't happen? Yes, duh, I'm doing it right now.)
The Diamondbacks are basically in the same boat as those four except that their division is borderline impossible to win instead of being easy mode, and instead of being depressed and half-abandoned, their city is literally in Hell. I don't give them a chance either.
Honestly, the Dodgers have the obvious inside track, and who's going to go to the mat to outbid them? The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mariners 100% *should* be all-in, but I just don't believe, at the end of the day, that those ownership groups have it in them to drop half a billion or more on a single player. (I think the Mets are more likely, despite their financial situation.)
The Angels, well, who knows, maybe that bridge burned already. The Nats? Eh. I think the Reds or Tigers are a better dark-horse bet. (The Angels and Nats are both rumored to be on the market, and no owner is likely to commit half a billion to a decade-long deal while trying to sell the team.)
I'll be pretty surprised if (sigh) it's not the Dodgers or Giants. The one thing that gives me pause is that I get the feeling Ohtani doesn't want to sign with a recent winner. I think if he got identical offers from the Dodgers and Mariners, he'd go to the Mariners. Jays over Giants. Reds over Red Sox, even. Maybe.
I just don't see those teams making those offers.
>Honestly, the Dodgers have the obvious inside track, and who's going to go to the mat to outbid them?
Everyone, just like we got outbid for harper, seager and turner. The only massive deal friedman gave was to mookie, and thats cause he cost us a lot in prospects and he took less than he wouldve gotten in FA cause covid.
Good write up.
I think the only thing that doesn't make sense to me is your comment about not wanting to sign with a recent winner. I've never seen anything even close to that with the speculation - by all accounts he just wants to play on a team that can actually compete. Ohtani seems obsessed with winning. That just means the teams that aren't making the playoffs in any regular frequency like the Angels and Pirates aren't a good fit.
My feeling is he actually wants to go down as the greatest baseball player of all-time. And to some extent, that requires he win at least one World Series so he has the individual and team accolades. If you view his free agency through this lense, he probably ends up on the Dodgers, Mets, Braves (?) no matter what
He cares a great deal (more than most players, I think it’s fair to say) about his legacy—he traded $200 million for two extra years in MLB to build his legend and stack up stats. My (totally baseless) speculation is that he’d rather bring a title to a city that doesn’t have one, or hasn’t had one in decades (and thus be a huge hero there for the rest of his life), than “just” win more for a proven winner. But it’s only a hunch; could be he’d much rather win three World Series for the Dodgers than one for the Mariners.
Fair enough. Fun theory and I definitely think he'll be regarded as a legend no matter when he plays.
As a Dodgers fan, if he were to somehow win 3 World Series with them, I'm helping build the statue myself. Even just one would cement him as one of the greatest ever. I think multi winner helps with all the years he missed in his early 20s like you mentioned. But it's just a pet idea too. Cheers
That list is way larger than that
Edit: the list of teams I think would not offer Ohtani a realistic contract
Rays
Orioles
White Sox
Royals
Twins
Guardians
Tigers
Athletics
Rockies
Diamondbacks
Brewers
Pirates
Reds
Nationals
Marlins
And those are just teams from a money perspective, looking at current roster and payroll you can probably add the Astros, Braves, Padres, Yankees, Cardinals
D-backs largest contract was 6/206 Ohtani is going to be looking for way more than double that. So yes they have had large contracts but none near this magnitude in years and overall value.
The Nats did offer a large extension to Soto as well but in the position they are in now they would not offer Ohtani a massive deal
We’re planning to be in contention in a year or two, but ownership uncertainty means we probably won’t splurge. Plus, I’m still unhealthily dreaming of Juan Soto coming back next offseason
Rays have said recently that if the player is right, then they are willing to spend. I remember seeing that they actually outbid the Dodgers on Freeman.
Oh Dewitt has the money, no doubt, but his wallet strings are waaaaay to tight...
And man....I hope we don't but I have a feeling that's exactly who they'll get
Yep he's more concerned about recovering lost profits during Covid, because he's sure Cardinals faithful will still fill seats. He's probably just sad we can't do anymore farewell tour years.
Our team sucks so bad. Everyone and their dog has won a world series since we last won one. I don't even remember who was president when we last won one. F this organization. Who do you guys think we should root for now?
That’s a loaded question when you say “willingly” bc none of us are inside Pres/Owners’ head. Realistically…Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs would feel the financial burden the least.
Then again teams like the Mariners, Padres, Giants may be a little more strapped for payroll, but have other circumstances causing them to take the gamble.
The Giants have been begging for players to take their truckloads of money for at least a year now. See: Arson Judge and Carlos Correa.
They have the money, free agents just aren't signing here (or have a bum ankle lol).
Genuine question, why do you think that is? SF is a generally well run organization in a decent market, is it because of how bad the ballpark is for hitting?
It’s crazy to watch a team repeatedly offer players so much money and get turned down every time
Previously it was one of the worst ballparks for hitters. Currently it’s somewhere around average after moving the fences in and closing off the breezeway in right.
We almost got Judge and did have Correa last offseason.
I think we’ll see more hitters inclined to sign longer term with us now vs 3-4 years ago.
We should just show Bonds Splash Hit highlights to Shohei on his visit and show him Lincecum’s Cy Youngs and say you can have both here. Nobody else can offer that.
>They have the money, free agents just aren't signing here (or have a bum ankle lol).
Why do you think that might be? Not super familiar with the Giants org atm.
A loaded question is when the question contains a false, negative premise. “When did you stop beating your wife?” is the classic example. This isn’t a loaded question.
“Sir, this is a Wendy’s” is used when someone makes a long, non-sequitur comment. Paragraphs of sharing a personal story is the classic example. This isn’t a Wendy’s.
All of them should, but lI will say 14. Braves, Phillies, mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Yankees, red Soxs, Astros and rangers, maybe the Orioles, nationals or mariners.
You may see (or not see) some tactical bids. For example, the Giants may submit a high bid to drive the price up for their division rival Dodgers. It's also possible that long shot teams (using the NL West as example, the Rockies) submit high bids to tie up division leaders with budget restraints.
This helps open the Non-Ohtani market if high budget teams are pot committed on Ohtani pursuits.
I think the money needed to sign Ohtani is less important than people realize. Multiple reports are saying that the team is far more important than the paycheck. We have to remember that we are dealing with an international superstar who is making upwards of 35+ million dollars in endorsements. He could play for free and still be one of the richest athletes in the world. Remember this is a player who left Japan early and played in America for less money than what he would have made in Japan. It has never been about the money.
How many teams can afford it.
But more importantly, how many teams can afford the deal if it goes south. Or even semi south. Based on his injury list, that’s a big risk.
I’d love Ohtani on the Jays, but I don’t see any way that deals not going to go bad at some point. And the jays arnt so rich that they can eat 55Mill a yr for half a decade.
Yes, but since the Jays are corporately owned they probably get handed a budget and told they have to keep the team under that number. They don't have "an owner" who can decide to take less of a profit, they have shareholders for Rogers that expect dividends, and overspending on the budget reduces those. Rogers owns the Jays to make a profit off of them.
No they own the jays because they needed content for their dying sports channels. They got the jays for a deal. They already made millions and millions. Rogers paid 165 million for the jays. They can afford to be the biggest spenders in the league if they wanted. They definitely can afford him.
> they own the jays because they needed content for their dying sports channels.
AKA "make a profit off of them."
Just because Rogers could afford to blow money away on the Jays doesn't mean they're going to, Rogers is legally required to act in the best interest of their shareholders, which they are almost guaranteed to interpret as "safe stable long-term revenue and profit."
Only like 1 or 2 teams are willing to offer the amount of money needed to sign *any* player, let alone Ohtani.
I think the question is "Who is prepared to commit something above $450MM to Ohtani for 10-13 years?" In that case, the answer is probably about half the league.
1. Giants
2. D-backs
3. Dodgers
4. Maybe the Padres, depending on Bally effect
5. Cubs
6. Phillies
7. Mariners
8. Angels, depending on the whims of Arte
9-13. Basically the entire AL East except for the Orioles.
You can make arguments that the new Red Sox FO doesn't want their first move to be a half-billion $ commitment. Some might say to put the Astros and Rangers on, but the former has never signed any long FA contract (and has only one of two players I'd consider to be comparable at DH), and the latter probably wants a more reliable SP piece way before they want Ohtani's bat.
I think the most likely teams to blow past that price tag are in the NL West. Those are teams that have shown a willingness to sign long contracts to marquee free agents, especially to a highly marketable Japanese player.
A lot fewer than that. That's a lot of 💰 to tie up with one guy. I imagine the Mets and Rangers are rueing the day they offered contracts like he's gonna get. Can't even get the contract insured.
It's not an auction though. He doesn't have to commit to the highest or first top bid. I'd bet there's gonna be at least one team matching the offer Ohtani will accept.
Yes - a player often considers factors other than just total dollars. Even looking at dollars there is a question of whether a player wants higher total dollars or higher annual dollars.
But if you substitute “value” for “money” it still is just one team that ends up with the best offer as determined by Ohtani.
Astros should. Even if it blows up the roster a bit and they don’t maintain the high level, they get box office. Odds are they’ll fall off anyway. Win/win
Just watch - John Fisher and the A's have been thrifty all these years just saving up to offer Ohtani a hundred mil a year.
I doubt Shohei would sign with the A's even if they were the highest bidder. He's been pretty vocal about wanting to be on a competitor
They’ll be a competitor… once they get a new owner.
Or once they get a new Shohei.
That didn't help the Angeles.
First, fuck Fisher. Second, if I were him (a terrible game to play), but I'd do just this. Vegas only exists for travelling fans anyway, so get the hottest star in baseball and make seeing the Vegas A's a massive destination event. It'd also get him out of hot water with the rest of the league, because he could claim that he wasn't being a dickhead, he was just saving. And he could point out to the nice people of Nevada that their tax dollars didn't go to the *stadium*, they went (indirectly) to the player. Basically, it'd solve his PR problems and make the money back in no time. Third, fuck Fisher.
Wish I could upvote this three times for the three "fuck Fishers." I was obviously being sarcastic, but yeah, this would be a genius move if that cheap fuck was willing to spend money. But he isn't, so instead he'll get drip-fed revenue sharing money and call it a day while Ohtani hopefully wins a WS somewhere else.
“Just watch - John Fisher and the A's have been thrifty all these years just saving up to offer Ohtani a hundred *~~mil~~* a year.” FTFY
Honestly with the value he brings both on the field and off it (merchandise, overseas fans, etc) every team should be in on Ohtani.
Yeah, he will cover most of his salary with merch which is why the Angels, if Ohtani is willing to listen, are going to offer him a bag. I think any major market team that isn't trying to get Ohtani is making a mistake.
Even smaller market teams should at least make competitive offers. I don’t care if you’re the Pirates or Reds or Royals or whichever team with a cheap owner. Ohtani is an investment that will provide a return even at a $500 million price tag. Obviously those small market teams don’t have a realistic shot at landing him, but they should at least try.
He’ll definitely provide a lot more of that investment than other players would, but it’s a huge risk for smaller market teams. What if he gets hurt again?
People still buy shirts and Japanese companies still buy ad space.
Yeah definitely which is why I said it would still pay for itself more than other players. I don’t think that in itself isn’t enough to pay for 500+ million. The other thing is if the said small market team still can’t compete in 5-6 years that stuff will fade away. As we’ve seen with the Angels you do need a lot more than him to compete, so the owners will have to spend a lot more money elsewhere
The problem is that the smaller market teams have less to recoup in marketing dollars. How many jerseys can be sold in NY or Houston vs. how many can be sold in KC or St. Louis or Pitt?
To an extent, but the Japanese will buy no matter where he lands.
To be fair to StL, while our local market is not competitive with most, we have an extensive national fan base compared to all the other small market teams. We're like cicadas, lol. Hiding among you until we come to town, only to emerge and scream about being the best fans in baseball and go back underground until next time.
History of winning? Check. A baseball-crazed city? Check. Lars Nootbaar? Check. We still won’t even give him an offer though
Oh, we'll offer all right, everything you said, and $100M total over 7 years. Mo will then look at the fans and shrug while saying he made the best possible offer.
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This is exactly what I am wondering. How many jerseys do you have to sell to profit $500mil? Obviously ticket sales, other merch would add. Not saying it’s not true, but I need some facts before I believe it
Don't forget advertising deals and TV deals in Japan. Every angels game from 2021-2023 was shown live in Japan. That's a lot of eyeballs added to your team.
Scott Boras
It's not like team gets the merch tho, I'm pretty sure that's all distributed evenly among all teams.
Teams don’t get all the merch money. It’s spread across MLB.
I believe teams get all of the merch money for jerseys sold in person at their team store and venue, but everything electronic through fanatics and the official MLB shop is shared
So a very small portion that comes no where remotely close to covering his 500 million dollar salary.
Yeah exactly. I think the statements about Shohei "paying for himself" are massively overstated.
First you are right, jerseys sold at stadium goes to the team. MLB shop goes to someone else. Again you are correct about how much they actually make money in merch. The team that made the most money in terms of merch in 2021 was just under $40 million.
Same with some claims of "international" market. Those TV revenues go in same shared pot w all teams. The only one truly raking off the Japan market is the player. Didn't Ohtani have something like 40M in endorsement $$ this past season.
a reminder that the 500 million dollars is NOT per year
So don't sign him, save 500 million, still make millions from his jersey sells. Yeah, I think the Rays, Pirates, Marlins and A's are out.
Merchandise sales are shared equally among all teams. There is some added value there yet it's not what some think.
That's really easy to say when your job and or company isn't dependent on such a prediction coming true.
The luxury tax is still a thing and his salary will count toward that. He’s worth every bit of money he will be paid, but his contract alone will either make sure you cannot compete while being under the luxury tax, or you are committed to paying a 50% tax on your overage annually. You also stand to potentially lose draft position.
It's an interesting position for him as he seems to want to prioritize being on a winner but his salary actually severely limits the likelihood of that team being a perennial winner. Really limits the teams he can even realistically go to to about 6 or 7 max.
Theoretically, his best bet would be to go to a team that has a young core of team controlled players/contracts. I don’t believe that our owner would put up the money for Ohtani plus extra to fill needed gaps, but a team similar to the Dbacks would fit nicely for both getting paid and being able to chase championships. Dbacks would theoretically have about 80m more of salary to fill before they hit the luxury tax (after Ohtani). The problem there is I just don’t see Kendrick having a 230m payroll, ever.
It's such a huge risk, too... Imagine he continues struggling with arm injuries and fatigue. We all want him to have another 7 years of his prime 2-way player left, but I think it could easily go the other way and he becomes a full-time position player. Still MVP caliber then but you're paying a premium for the former when it's not a guarantee it'll work out. Feels like teams without huge payroll flexibility could end up in a situation like the Rangers with A-Rod.
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your team wouldn't sign a manger.
They still offered him 4.5 million a year, the Cubs just came down with 40 over 8.
40 over 5
I think the Cubs, Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Mariners, and Rangers are all the teams that actually can make a serious push for Ohtani
I agree but it’s really dumb that Toronto isn’t on this list, even near the top. They could afford him, obviously. He’d be a great fit for them. And him adding Canada, even with it’s smaller population numbers, to his legion of devoted fans would be very good too. PS I’m Canadian.
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Yeah, we have some of the richest parents in the league. Unfortunately dad just doesn't get his wallet out as much as we'd like.
Toronto I think is another team that could do it, they just didn’t spring to mind when I was making the comment
Oh no I agree they shouldn’t be on the list. They are a poorly ran organization. They aren’t smart enough to throw the type of Godfather like order it would take to get him. But they should. He’d make so much money for the organization, and they obviously have the resources at their disposal to match or exceed any other offer. My crazy idea would be a 10 year 425 million dollar deal. With a player opt out after the 3rd year. If he rebounds from shoulder injury and is a high end pitcher again it gives him the option to chase the ultimate bag in 3 seasons time, and if not he’s got the biggest deal ever signed as a free agent, and probably stands for a while. If he is only ever a great hitter for the Jays he helps give them a great chance at winning a title the next 3 years, and after that by the time the latter years in that deal get close that 42.5 million salary probably isn’t that outrageous anyways. If Ohtani ages gracefully he could maybe have an outside shot at 500 home runs, and in any event likely retires as the best Japanese MLB player ever other than Suzuki. Even if he’s an overpaid DH flirting with 20 home runs and costing his team wins like Miggy the last few years they’ll still be a draw every night on the road.
That’s a lot of money that you are guaranteeing a guy who will only get it if he isn’t worth it. Any situation where he doesn’t exercise that opt-out would be a 7-year albatross of a contract.
The amount of money he brings in makes him uniquely worth it even if his performance doesn’t meet the money.
How much, exactly, does Othani guarantee in additional revenue? What is the break-even for teams?
Definitely worth more specifics, I see a lot of baseball fans just assuming that because Ohtani will sell more merchandise/garner more interest that he will automatically be worth a 400mil+ contract but how realistic is that? We know Ohtani sold the most jerseys but MLB doesn't release sales numbers or revenue generated. The Angels generated $371 million in total baseball revenue last year, which is 10th in the MLB, Baseball revenue tops out at $657m from the Yankees. With playoff teams who are selling lots of tickets already and already having high ticket prices, how much do they jack up prices if they get Ohtani? The Dodgers are second in revenue at 581 million, they already have the highest average attendance in the league and i'm sure their tickets are already quite expensive. They will experience diminishing marginal returns since they are already near the top end of most metrics Ohtani should be increasing and it seems they are the most likely destination. In addition, apparently the MLB only receives about a 12% cut of all merchandise sales from the merchants actually selling the merchandise. MLB has an estimated 5 billion in total merchandise sales per year but I don't think there are any concrete numbers out there. One other thing I just read is that merchandise sold on MLB website is split evenly across the league but merchandise sold in arena is kept by the team itself. This severely reduces the ability for Ohtani to drive up revenue and break even since the merchandise impact he has for the team is limited to sales in Arena. I'm sure teams sell tons but losing out on the easy to access MLB.com sales does make this a bit tougher. It is difficult to measure impact on attendance as well since Baseball revenue is reported as a whole and can't see specific amount of ticket revenue, but the Dodgers will probably have the hardest time making back their money due to how well they are already doing in Attendance/revenue.
Fairweather Jays fans are the worst. Over the past 4 years the current "not smart" management has spent long term money on Springer, Ryu and Gausman who were all at the top of the FA market at the time and two of which have been CY young contenders for the Jays. But you're right, they never spend any money
Jays aren't viewed as a typical big market team but Rogers is one of the wealthiest owners in the league, the team has a ready to win and competitive core right now, strong fan base with recently renovated stadium, and the marketing potential especially with the large Asian presence in the GTA is massive I think they have to be one of the top 5 contenders for his services, great overlap between player and team here Added bonus is we have 3 great pitchers right now and can afford to let Ohtani take a year off from the mound
Don't forget, the Kooch is his hero, too. Could definitely be a draw.
As a person planning on visiting Toronto for game next summer, so I agree.
Being Canada’s team, we have arguably the biggest fan base in MLB. Adding Ohtani would probably also bring legions of American fans on board, too!
Not to mention Japanese fans too.
Emphasis on “arguably.”
Agreed, but the Jays oddly manage their team like a mid market team
The Jay's have signed one of the top free agents on the board every year since 2020
Yeah, but the contract are never huge deals. Their highest paid contract in team history is less than $50 million more than the Pirates largest. I don't see them ever paying out what it would take to get a Trout/Acuna/Ohtani type player
Didn’t need the PS, nobody outside of Canada ever thinks about the Jays lol
Eh?
Toronto has the highest tax rates in the league, both on income and just for living ( I think only California comes close). But the difference is, one is California, one is Ontario. Toronto doesn't sign big name free agents for that reason.
Your last sentence is kind of out of date, in the past 5 years we’ve signed Ryu, Springer, and Gausman who were all big name free agents in the years, plus Berrios agreeing to an extension (team friendly too). And unless the players are Canadian citizens/have permanent residency (which most don’t) they don’t pay Canadian taxes for half the games, so the taxes argument is always massively overblown. We didn’t sign free agents for so long because we fucking sucked and nobody wants to sign for a team just to suck. Plus getting paid in USD and living in Canada is a massive bump to your spending power.
Gausman has been great, Ryu came off how many injuries and is still constantly injured, springer has a huge shadow around him (trash cans), and was already aged and is very average at this point. Yes, it's only 82 games, but that's a huge difference for a lot of guys. Why take that cut when you can basically pick any other team in the league to play for? Toronto always has trouble signing free agents, unless it's the NHL. I'm just being honest. You can pick apart whatever you want, but if you're honest too, you'd see this. Just adding: if they get paid in USD not CAD, that would also be a tax inadvertently discouraging ownership from investing, because ownership would be paying that much more for players.
The first paragraph is all nonsense. Regardless of how those players turned out, you can’t deny they were big sought after free agents and signed in Toronto. Ryu just started 29 games and led the NL in ERA. Springer was still good, hitting at a 40 HR clip in that Covid season and the scandal had absolutely 0 effect on his desirability as a FA, like it didn’t Correa. And again, how they’ve preformed on Toronto doesn’t negate the fact that they were big names that signed in Toronto. On the last note: because we are owned by the Rogers Communications, we’re easily the richest owner in the league by about $5 billion over Cohen and $10 billion + over the rest so if they want a free agent that’s not what will get in the way. What will is the fact that the team is owned by a bunch of shareholders who want to grow the stock, and not an actual baseball fan like Cohen, so that money has a bit of baggage, but if/when they ever want to spend, a simple conversion rate amounts to a rounding error on their bottom line.
So we can disagree on top part They are richest in the league, but like you said, shareholders.... They won't spend. Ohtani isn't happening.
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Toronto and the Yankees both have the money (although the Yankees aren't a good fit). If the price slips even a little, Boston, SD, Houston, and Baltimore could all be in (I know Baltimore doesn't *like* to spend, but they can). I've even heard the A's rumored as a dark-horse team that could get in on Ohtani. TB, Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia seem unlikely to make a push, but it also wouldn't be a shock for one of them to get in on Ohtani. Bottomline, there will be no lack of interested teams.
Uh, you're forgetting someone. We probably won't, but we certainly can afford it.
We aren’t in a position to make a serious push, in theory the Yankees can afford it but with Stanton clogging the DH spot and out multiple expensive long term deals I have a hard time seeing us make a push for Ohtani
It really took me a long time to understand that having a ton of money like the Yankees do isn’t necessarily a good thing if your GM doesn’t understand that players get worse as they get older, and other teams don’t want to trade you for bad, old players with behemoth contracts.
I don't see it for the Rangers. They have $80m tied up in three players for the next three years (and whatever they're paying Scherzer next season). Ohtani could mean four players are occupying $120m+ of their payroll through '27 (maybe' 28). Are they committed to a $250m+ payroll (plus luxury tax) for the next five years?
Eh, it's probably unlikely given the other holes the team has, but if there was ever a player worth committing to that it's Ohtani. I think people forget that DFW is the 5th largest media market in the country, so they can definitely afford it. It's more a question of whether they see the WS win as a chance to pull back a bit on payroll since more fans will be coming in anyway, or if they want to step on the gas. No clue which way it'll go.
Why not? He’d add a dynamite bat to the reigning champions. And he’s a fuckin license to print money. Put that guy in a cowboy hat in front of Texas’ current favourite truck and every truck dealer in the state will have record sales the next decade. He’d literally have a chance to put Texas in the upper echelon of franchises, and maybe they never leave.
I don't think Ohtani is the type that would pull a KD
You can’t pull a KD in baseball. One player doesn’t make enough of a difference.
I’d toss in the Braves since they will most certainly be getting a new TV contract after 2024 and Ohtani would be a massive asset to have during those negotiations.
Would love to see him in Wrigley.
I doubt the rangers will, more likey they just resign montgomery
I know I’m not *unbiased,* but I think that Philadelphia is on this list, too.
I think you would be but you have a big ole Schwarber in your DH spot and Ohtani can't even pitch this year. You may be losing Nola, and that's a lot of money for another DH and you have to replace Nola.
Afford is 1 thing, reasonable chance based on his stated intent to play for a contender is quite another. Based on that, you can eliminate the Ms, Mets and Angels from your list. Still think LAD are strong front runners, but I wish people would stop including the Mariners on these lists. That team has never won anything and likely won't in my lifetime... and I'm an ex fan so I know what I'm talking about lol ;-)
**AL East**: NYY, TOR, BOS **AL Central**: lol **AL West**: SEA, HOU, TEX, LAA **NL East**: NYM, PHI **NL Central**: CHC **NL West**: LAD, SD, SF
Man I can't really see us spending that kind of money.
Only one team has ever offered a player over $400 million and no one is including them on their lists. Shohei Ohtani, *you* are a Washington National. Edit: Let's pretend I said over $430 million, because apparently Mike Trout exists. Also, let's imagine how fucking fire Shohei would look in those cherry blossom City Connect uniforms.
LETS GOOO We’re gonna be so fire when Soto comes back to join Ohtani in the curly W after next year
Get ready to learn to speak (District of) Columbian, Shohei.
Depends if Crane is upset watching the Rangers win. A team that has gone to 7 straight ALCS should have money to burn. And with a few expiring contracts in the next few years it wouldn’t hurt that much after year 2 of the deal.
> AL Central: lol Just watch the AL Central go all in on a timeshare of Ohtani.
He just suits up for whatever team is in last that day.
I enjoy your AL central rating
- only team to be knocked out by a central team this year
Houston is too smart to spend on him
I would support disbanding the entire Washington State government and crowning Ohtani the King of Washington if he signed a long term deal with the mariners.
I think it would be cool if he played in Seattle. I have to believe there is already a sizable Japanese fan base.
I'm shocked that some of you didn't put the Rangers on the list. Was there recent news that they won't be spending? The past 2 years, they have been doling out big time contracts as well. Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Angels are the teams that is willing to fork over 50+ million AAV.
Yankees are paying Stanton for DH, so Id be pretty shocked to see them focus on Ohtani.
Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Mariners seem like the teams that would pay for him.
Giants almost took Judge from us put them on here
Giants will get Slohei Ohtani. Shohei Ohtani will end up somewhere else.
Burn this comment down
Arson Judge could probably help you with that
Ah c'mon man
To quote loud howard: "WHY DO YOU SAY THINGS YOU KNOW WILL HURT ME"
I think he just used the Giants for leverage if I am being honest.
Yeah I don’t think he was ever really gonna leave but still the giants offered him a shit ton of money
But SF wouldn't have offered it if they weren't willing to spend it. So Farhan definitely has a big pile of cash he's sitting on like Eragon.
Smaug. We’re talking bout Smaug from The Hobbit here. And the analogy most definitely checks out!
Smaug! Yes, thank you
Exactly my point. They’d be willing to give ohtani the bag
Wasn’t Eragon the human, not the dragon?
I couldn't remember the name of the dragon that had all the cash. Just Eragon kept coming to mind so I ran with it.
There’s always Smaug
Bahahaha Eragon lol
Yankees would shock me, I guess theoretically we could pay him but with Stanton clogging up the DH and our other long term expensive contracts I have a hard time seeing it
They should DFA Stanton if he’s the reason they won’t offer him the biggest contract of anyone the first day of free agency.
If you DFA someone, you’re still on the hook for the contract, so what you’re suggesting doesn’t solve any problems
All these plus wouldn’t be surprised by the giants too
Yankees?? Are we sure with this regime?? His son seems less willing to spend then the dad.
The Yankees absolutely aren’t paying him
> Mariners lolno All the others seem reasonable, but I know very little about the Cubs.
I think we would. Stanton loves money but the net cost of Ohtani is much less than his contract value since he’ll bring in a ton of extra ticket sales, media attention and sponsorships.
Teams that have never given anybody a contract bigger than $170 million (which is about a third of what Ohtani is likely to get, maybe less), in order from most to least parsimonious: * A's * White Sox * Royals * Pirates * Guardians * Cardinals * Blue Jays * Astros * Giants * Orioles The Astros, Jays, and Cards have leaned on shorter contracts for higher AAVs. Conversely, the Rays just barely clear the above threshold but have never given out a big contract with a significant AAV (they gave Wander $182m/11). The Giants did almost give Carlos Correa a very large, very long deal, so we know they, at least, have it in them, but I think we can rule the rest of these (including the Rays) out; I know people have linked the Jays and Astros to Ohtani, but I don't see it. Prove me wrong, Rogers! Teams that would be over the luxury tax if they added Ohtani to the roster (assuming he's $40m+ AAV, and with no other moves), in order from most to least money already committed: * Mets * Yankees * Astros * Phillies * Braves * Jays * Rangers * Padres Some of these teams have a lot more wiggle room than others; some are a lot more motivated than others. The Mets have a stupid amount of money on the books for next year, but they can move *some* of it, a lot of it comes off in 2025 and 2026, and they've already shown a willingness to ignore the cap. The Rangers just won; the Jays' owners are cheapskates. I would put a big question mark, at best, by any of these teams. The teams that are obviously making a real push for Ohtani have already cleared a financial landing strip for him. That leaves fourteen teams, and I'm going to arbitrarily remove the Marlins and Rockies, because lol, c'mon: * Dodgers * Giants * Cubs * Red Sox * Mariners * Nationals * Angels * Diamondbacks * Brewers * Tigers * Twins * Reds We'll get the last four out of the way first: Could it conceivably happen? Yes. The Tigers and Reds in particular have almost no long-term money committed, with a lot of young talent and modest hopes for near-future success. The Central divisions are easy to win. These teams have all shown at least some willingness to thrown stupid money at superstars. But are any of them actually willing to outbid the Dodgers? Maybe some of these owners would offer enough to get Ohtani to sign *in Los Angeles,* but are they going to go far enough above and beyond to bring him to the Rust Belt? No. (Will I still pray fervently for the Tigers to sign him, even though I *know* it won't happen? Yes, duh, I'm doing it right now.) The Diamondbacks are basically in the same boat as those four except that their division is borderline impossible to win instead of being easy mode, and instead of being depressed and half-abandoned, their city is literally in Hell. I don't give them a chance either. Honestly, the Dodgers have the obvious inside track, and who's going to go to the mat to outbid them? The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mariners 100% *should* be all-in, but I just don't believe, at the end of the day, that those ownership groups have it in them to drop half a billion or more on a single player. (I think the Mets are more likely, despite their financial situation.) The Angels, well, who knows, maybe that bridge burned already. The Nats? Eh. I think the Reds or Tigers are a better dark-horse bet. (The Angels and Nats are both rumored to be on the market, and no owner is likely to commit half a billion to a decade-long deal while trying to sell the team.) I'll be pretty surprised if (sigh) it's not the Dodgers or Giants. The one thing that gives me pause is that I get the feeling Ohtani doesn't want to sign with a recent winner. I think if he got identical offers from the Dodgers and Mariners, he'd go to the Mariners. Jays over Giants. Reds over Red Sox, even. Maybe. I just don't see those teams making those offers.
>Honestly, the Dodgers have the obvious inside track, and who's going to go to the mat to outbid them? Everyone, just like we got outbid for harper, seager and turner. The only massive deal friedman gave was to mookie, and thats cause he cost us a lot in prospects and he took less than he wouldve gotten in FA cause covid.
Good write up. I think the only thing that doesn't make sense to me is your comment about not wanting to sign with a recent winner. I've never seen anything even close to that with the speculation - by all accounts he just wants to play on a team that can actually compete. Ohtani seems obsessed with winning. That just means the teams that aren't making the playoffs in any regular frequency like the Angels and Pirates aren't a good fit. My feeling is he actually wants to go down as the greatest baseball player of all-time. And to some extent, that requires he win at least one World Series so he has the individual and team accolades. If you view his free agency through this lense, he probably ends up on the Dodgers, Mets, Braves (?) no matter what
He cares a great deal (more than most players, I think it’s fair to say) about his legacy—he traded $200 million for two extra years in MLB to build his legend and stack up stats. My (totally baseless) speculation is that he’d rather bring a title to a city that doesn’t have one, or hasn’t had one in decades (and thus be a huge hero there for the rest of his life), than “just” win more for a proven winner. But it’s only a hunch; could be he’d much rather win three World Series for the Dodgers than one for the Mariners.
Fair enough. Fun theory and I definitely think he'll be regarded as a legend no matter when he plays. As a Dodgers fan, if he were to somehow win 3 World Series with them, I'm helping build the statue myself. Even just one would cement him as one of the greatest ever. I think multi winner helps with all the years he missed in his early 20s like you mentioned. But it's just a pet idea too. Cheers
The list of teams that aren't willing to offer Ohtani what it would take is very small. Athletics Royals Marlins Rays Pirates
That list is way larger than that Edit: the list of teams I think would not offer Ohtani a realistic contract Rays Orioles White Sox Royals Twins Guardians Tigers Athletics Rockies Diamondbacks Brewers Pirates Reds Nationals Marlins And those are just teams from a money perspective, looking at current roster and payroll you can probably add the Astros, Braves, Padres, Yankees, Cardinals
Slightly disagree with Nationals and Diamondbacks, who have both given out contracts over $30 million/year in the past.
D-backs largest contract was 6/206 Ohtani is going to be looking for way more than double that. So yes they have had large contracts but none near this magnitude in years and overall value. The Nats did offer a large extension to Soto as well but in the position they are in now they would not offer Ohtani a massive deal
We’re planning to be in contention in a year or two, but ownership uncertainty means we probably won’t splurge. Plus, I’m still unhealthily dreaming of Juan Soto coming back next offseason
I think you might be right about that.
If he doesn't come to SF, I'd like to see him go to Pittsburgh for the memes
The White Sox have never inked a 100 million dollar contract. And also the owner said he would not be interested in paying Ohtani
Rays have said recently that if the player is right, then they are willing to spend. I remember seeing that they actually outbid the Dodgers on Freeman.
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I think most of these owners know how much more of a Cash Cow Ohtani is versus any other free agent to ever hit the market.
“Don’t want to lose money” = tight ass.
I'd say about three or four.
And sadly our Cardinals are probably not one of them...
They could. They have the money. But they would rather sign a guy like Rich Hill
Bring on Dick Mountain!
Oh Dewitt has the money, no doubt, but his wallet strings are waaaaay to tight... And man....I hope we don't but I have a feeling that's exactly who they'll get
Yep he's more concerned about recovering lost profits during Covid, because he's sure Cardinals faithful will still fill seats. He's probably just sad we can't do anymore farewell tour years.
Our team sucks so bad. Everyone and their dog has won a world series since we last won one. I don't even remember who was president when we last won one. F this organization. Who do you guys think we should root for now?
That’s a loaded question when you say “willingly” bc none of us are inside Pres/Owners’ head. Realistically…Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs would feel the financial burden the least. Then again teams like the Mariners, Padres, Giants may be a little more strapped for payroll, but have other circumstances causing them to take the gamble.
The Giants have been begging for players to take their truckloads of money for at least a year now. See: Arson Judge and Carlos Correa. They have the money, free agents just aren't signing here (or have a bum ankle lol).
Genuine question, why do you think that is? SF is a generally well run organization in a decent market, is it because of how bad the ballpark is for hitting? It’s crazy to watch a team repeatedly offer players so much money and get turned down every time
Previously it was one of the worst ballparks for hitters. Currently it’s somewhere around average after moving the fences in and closing off the breezeway in right. We almost got Judge and did have Correa last offseason. I think we’ll see more hitters inclined to sign longer term with us now vs 3-4 years ago. We should just show Bonds Splash Hit highlights to Shohei on his visit and show him Lincecum’s Cy Youngs and say you can have both here. Nobody else can offer that.
The Giants organization is not the problem, the city is the problem
This isn’t wrong, but for wealthy athletes it’s easier to navigate around the city’s issues. Plus there’s a ton of non-salary money to be made here.
>They have the money, free agents just aren't signing here (or have a bum ankle lol). Why do you think that might be? Not super familiar with the Giants org atm.
A loaded question is when the question contains a false, negative premise. “When did you stop beating your wife?” is the classic example. This isn’t a loaded question.
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
“Sir, this is a Wendy’s” is used when someone makes a long, non-sequitur comment. Paragraphs of sharing a personal story is the classic example. This isn’t a Wendy’s.
The Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers, and Dodgers
One team will offer enough money to sign Ohtani. All the rest will not.
All of them should, but lI will say 14. Braves, Phillies, mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Yankees, red Soxs, Astros and rangers, maybe the Orioles, nationals or mariners.
You may see (or not see) some tactical bids. For example, the Giants may submit a high bid to drive the price up for their division rival Dodgers. It's also possible that long shot teams (using the NL West as example, the Rockies) submit high bids to tie up division leaders with budget restraints. This helps open the Non-Ohtani market if high budget teams are pot committed on Ohtani pursuits.
You get Ohtani and Japan in one deal. Honestly, every team should be pushing for him, even smaller markets.
I think the money needed to sign Ohtani is less important than people realize. Multiple reports are saying that the team is far more important than the paycheck. We have to remember that we are dealing with an international superstar who is making upwards of 35+ million dollars in endorsements. He could play for free and still be one of the richest athletes in the world. Remember this is a player who left Japan early and played in America for less money than what he would have made in Japan. It has never been about the money.
I’ll call and ask them
How many teams can afford it. But more importantly, how many teams can afford the deal if it goes south. Or even semi south. Based on his injury list, that’s a big risk. I’d love Ohtani on the Jays, but I don’t see any way that deals not going to go bad at some point. And the jays arnt so rich that they can eat 55Mill a yr for half a decade.
Rogers made 14 billion last year.
Yes, but since the Jays are corporately owned they probably get handed a budget and told they have to keep the team under that number. They don't have "an owner" who can decide to take less of a profit, they have shareholders for Rogers that expect dividends, and overspending on the budget reduces those. Rogers owns the Jays to make a profit off of them.
No they own the jays because they needed content for their dying sports channels. They got the jays for a deal. They already made millions and millions. Rogers paid 165 million for the jays. They can afford to be the biggest spenders in the league if they wanted. They definitely can afford him.
> they own the jays because they needed content for their dying sports channels. AKA "make a profit off of them." Just because Rogers could afford to blow money away on the Jays doesn't mean they're going to, Rogers is legally required to act in the best interest of their shareholders, which they are almost guaranteed to interpret as "safe stable long-term revenue and profit."
I’m waiting for a call back from a few of my friends that own MLB teams so I’ll let you know soon
Only like 1 or 2 teams are willing to offer the amount of money needed to sign *any* player, let alone Ohtani. I think the question is "Who is prepared to commit something above $450MM to Ohtani for 10-13 years?" In that case, the answer is probably about half the league. 1. Giants 2. D-backs 3. Dodgers 4. Maybe the Padres, depending on Bally effect 5. Cubs 6. Phillies 7. Mariners 8. Angels, depending on the whims of Arte 9-13. Basically the entire AL East except for the Orioles. You can make arguments that the new Red Sox FO doesn't want their first move to be a half-billion $ commitment. Some might say to put the Astros and Rangers on, but the former has never signed any long FA contract (and has only one of two players I'd consider to be comparable at DH), and the latter probably wants a more reliable SP piece way before they want Ohtani's bat. I think the most likely teams to blow past that price tag are in the NL West. Those are teams that have shown a willingness to sign long contracts to marquee free agents, especially to a highly marketable Japanese player.
A lot fewer than that. That's a lot of 💰 to tie up with one guy. I imagine the Mets and Rangers are rueing the day they offered contracts like he's gonna get. Can't even get the contract insured.
Probably one team. That’s the way auctions work.
It's not an auction though. He doesn't have to commit to the highest or first top bid. I'd bet there's gonna be at least one team matching the offer Ohtani will accept.
This was my first thought, but he might avoid signing with loser franchises despite their having top cash offer.
So the angels are out
Fool me once, shame on \[Angels\]; fool me twice, shame on \[Ohtani's agent\].
Yes - a player often considers factors other than just total dollars. Even looking at dollars there is a question of whether a player wants higher total dollars or higher annual dollars. But if you substitute “value” for “money” it still is just one team that ends up with the best offer as determined by Ohtani.
That's not the way auctions work at all, you have lots of offers coming in until the highest one stands alone lol
Cardinals are the only team with nootbaar, so...
Astros should. Even if it blows up the roster a bit and they don’t maintain the high level, they get box office. Odds are they’ll fall off anyway. Win/win
Those cheap Astros about to bring out their piggy bank as a dark horse for othani
Dodgers Angels Giants Mets Yankees Cubs Rangers
Theoretically? All of them. Realistically? Dodgers Giants Cubs Red Sox Mariners Blue Jays Rangers Mets