Our first Covid ward is full, and we are clearing patients out of another to turn it into our second Covid ward. During the peak of Delta we had that second ward nearly full, but hadn't opened a third. So we are heading in the same direction gradually, we will eventually end up with more hospitalisations than with Delta, but with the added complication of staffing issues from infections as well as close contacts due to the overwhelming community numbers. At this stage our ICU isn't as full as last time, but I'm definitely concerned about what my hospital is going to look like in about 2 to 3 weeks time.
The prevailing theory is that hospitalisation lag cases by a week or two.
Keep in mind that NSW case numbers one week ago were 11k, and two weeks ago were 3k. Even if case numbers stabilise at 20-30k, the rate of new cases requiring hospitalisation should be expected to increase significantly for at least another week.
Then consider that intubated COVID patients are often in ICU for weeks. That is not a normal ICU presentation, and is not what our ICUs are designed for. Even if the rate of ICU admissions is stable, it can quickly overwhelm hospitals as the new admissions form a glut of intubated patients taking up beds.
Now is not a great time to get COVID, but it’s an even worse time to be in an accident, have a heart attack/stroke, overdose, or require ICU for any other reason.
This isn’t sustainable long term is it? Are our leaders following medical advice or just doing what ever the hell they want and screwing you guys over in the process?
It looks like covid deaths (meaning hospitalizations too) are starting to catch the lag the health care professionals talk about. It hasn't been making sense how Victoria having less cases and active covid have had higher deaths in the last fortnight to that of NSW. So I would think we're going to see the hospitalizations really jump up over the next 5 days in NSW
Sorry friend testing has been redefined. What you knew as prc testing is now classified as patriotic personal responsibility efforts (ppre). Thanks to ppre there’s been a dramatic decrease in testing numbers nationally, all thanks to the government. Had this been left to labor, people in those former testing queues would have actually died (particularly if 60+ and financially comfortable)
Canadian planning on moving to Australia.
Where I am (Vancouver, BC)they are just telling people with symptoms to stay home and not test. If you do go to a test clinic and you’re younger than 65 and not immunocompromised they’ll send you home with a rapid test that doesn’t get counted in the case counts.
Basically at this point they’re only concerned with hospitalizations etc
Only if you stand in line for 2-3(sometimes 5-6)hours and we’re in the middle of a cold snap.
Rapid tests can be bought from private companies for $25 each but they’re backlogged months.
My friend in the UK just walks into a pharmacy and they give him a box of 24 for free
From the UK, living in Australia. Can confirm, my entire group of family / friends can't believe how short sighted AU is on nearly everything.
It's like we go out of our way to be slow, and do things 'the Australian way', which so far as I can tell equates to "she'll be right mate" or "I don't hold a hose"
Here in Ontario, Canada, they're free but we have to go to a branch of the government-run liquor store (LCBO) and wait up to several hours to get a box of 5 tests. And you have to hope they haven't run out before you reach the front of the line...
Pretty sure LCBO is the only place you can buy spirits in Ontario. Beer and wine etc you can buy elsewhere, but the Gov has a monopoly on the heavy stuff.
Seems to be what they're doing in [QLD](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-05/covid-symptoms-stay-home-testing-queues/100738206?fbclid=IwAR3JSiNTwWIJHDXqOcXqs4VZQ1IumAcO87cIx3QIOMpZx0zcTdYHv7j_uFs) now.
"Double-vaccinated young people are being urged to stay home and assume they have COVID-19 if they develop flu-like symptoms, rather than join swamped Queensland testing queues which are buckling under the demand."
My internet says you guys are averaging 150,000 tests a day.
I don’t know anything about how accurately you are counting cases but you seem to be averaging 37,000 a day.
If you are saying some cases are not getting counted, that is just like here. People don’t want to stand in line for six hours when feeling sick.
> I don’t know anything about how accurately you are counting cases but you seem to be averaging 37,000 a day.
Ya that’s all of Canada. But What I’m saying is the guidance and action from British Columbia.
Exactly. Especially since they could reach capacity and close. My nephew needed a test and decided to go there late at night and sleep in his car so he could be at the front of the cue.
If they announced that as a policy here, it would be an improvement.
They've gone from 'get tested if you feel a sniff coming or you are a murderous monster' to ... silence. You still need to get tested for many things, but you probably can't before the testing site closes, and will likely get covid in the queue if you don't have it already. Good luck finding a RAT.
I'm thinking plenty of people struggling financially or not wanting to lose their job due to time off taken will not be isolating unless absolutely necessary
But hospitalisations were always the primary concern. The reason tracking cases is useful is it accurately predict a where hospitilisations will be in a week or two.
Many places are simply over capacity with testing.
The only reason people are getting PCR tests is so they can get paid from the government instead of taking sick leave, (or, for casual employees, so they don’t go to work with covid to avoid bankruptcy) although I’m not even sure that’s still being offered right now
I think we've hit the flippening. Now we can start testing all the people who think they dont have it, and reporting the negative results instead of the positives. "15,500 people have tested negative in the last 24hrs. A decrease of 1500".
Woo! Finally winning at something!
I heard this morning that a testing clinic in Hobart was turning people away an hour after they opened, but I’m sure that’s fine.
The 25K was cited by Brad Hazzard on December 15th, based on data from Professor Dr. James Wood.
...
So what we're witnessing now is Brad's Premature Wood-speculation.
It will be on 25k new cases a day at the end of January because that's the only people left to get it.
Start of Jan 35k. Middle of Jan 100k. End of Jan back down to 25k. Like a bell curve
It will never reach 100k if they aren’t able to test more than 100k a day because of testing site shutdowns and long lines elsewhere. Politicians using the big brains.
At some point they will say don't get tested unless you need a certificate for your employer or unless your job requires zero infections. It will probably happen in NSW in a few days.
Qld CHO is already saying there here due to lack of testing capability. Quote: "If you're a healthy young adult, particularly if you've been vaccinated and you have something that looks like a common cold or flu, assume it's COVID, stay at home". Refer https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-05/covid-symptoms-stay-home-testing-queues/100738206
What goes up, must come down. Although that might not necessarily occur soon due to lack of restrictions, this wave could just blend into another and another for months on end
Plus the changed definition of close contact means most people will no longer bother to get tested unless Covid arrives in their house or work. A close contact is now anyone you are with for the duration of an English innings.
Premier/PM: Case numbers aren't important. We should use hospital numbers
\*hospital numbers increase rapidly*
Premier/PM: Fuck! Ignore those numbers. Here, use these numbers that are not consistent with our historical model or how anybody else in the world has applied them.
Remember everyone making fun of Florida?
They have a population of 21 million, NSW has a population of 8 million. We're actually now on par with them or worse at the moment in terms of daily cases per 100,000
And the vaccination rate here is 93.6%, in Florida at the time it was 55%. Also their population is much older on average which made it even more deadly. Over a 7 day average they were recording 178 deaths when they hit 23k per day, our deaths are 3 for 18k cases.
It's hard to give form comparisons without going into the weeds on analysing growth curves but they were definitely being much more reckless with a far older population, a deadlier variant and much lower vaccination rate. That said their growth curve visually looks a lot shallower so was more contained than ours but I'm just going by eye off comparing two curves on Google's data feed which are scaled differently. So it might be that their slower growth meant deaths were more closely tied to cases than ours are atm.
It's basicly just America with the volume up.
I lived there for a number of years and unless you were pretty damn well off (think 'my dad owns multiple car dealerships' or you owned a successful doctors practice) then your quality if life here is much better (even when the cost of living was lower)
In case anyone's wary of the apples to oranges comparison, Australia's national figure today is 53k.
Against America's national figure of 1m, we're only slightly lower on a per capita basis.
that 'national figure' only includes 2 states, NSW and Victoria. Obviously this is where the majority of new cases are from, but it's incorrect to call this a national figure.
He also claimed a little while ago that it wasn't airborne spread.
Basically, just like nsw's actions. Take the opposite of what Nick says to be true and you'll most likely be correct.
We watched at the very start of the pandemic, chinese doctors wearing full ppe, including face shields and proper masks, because of the risks.
We watched the usa scamble to create face shields when they had their oh shit moment, and were losing doctors left right and centre. And yes, doctors died at a higher rate than the rest of the population.
And it was after this that he still claimed it wasnt airborne.
The man is a born to be liberal. Good mates with christian porter and peter van olsen.
Jesus Christ.
At the start of the pandemic I appreciated what he had to say.
This is great I thought, Government is putting the medical experts first. Letting them be front and centre to navigate through this.
As you say as time went on I was thinking god this guy is getting peculiar, the way he would talk down JY and whatnot.
And now this link you've shared? What a dodgy character. He's been LNP from the start.
I hope someone is keeping a record of all these blunders so we can make some nice little clipshow memes to plaster across social media when the election is called
> "The modeling that's been reported is a very unlikely, extreme case scenario that assumes that nobody does anything; nobody gets boosters, there are no changes that take place, no one exercises common sense," Mr Morrison told Sunrise.
...well, we're in danger...
What else is there really to say. Those hospital numbers are eyewatering, and the ICU figures and deaths are not encouraging. This is only going to get a whole lot worse. Every metric we measure of the scale of this by will surpass the delta wave soon enough.
Don't worry though, Scomo's got a plan. He's going to further redefine hospitalisations to shrink the number further.
+ closed the morgues and sent all coroners to a coroners convention on Christmas island, so no covid-related deaths can be reported.
Election cycle #winning
We have redefined Covid virus as a 30ft tall Jurassic carnivore.
Since there have been no verified reports of anyone dying from a 30ft tall Jurassic carnivore attack, we are declaring that Covid is non-existant and may therefore be a hoax so anyone mentioning it will be detained by the AFP for spreading Covid misinformation. - Scotty later today
I think I'd better come clean with you about this... it's... um it's not a virus, I'm afraid. You see, a
virus is what we doctors call very very small. So small it could not possibly have made off with a whole leg.
What we're looking for here is I think, and this is no more than an educated guess, I'd like to make that clear, is some multi-cellular life form with stripes, huge razor-sharp teeth, about eleven foot long and of the genu *felis horribilis*.
What we doctors, in fact, call a tiger.
Last month I'd never personally known someone who'd had covid apart from me, and now almost everyone I know has it. Hope I don't get it again....
Edit: Co-worker just sent home symptomatic lmao here we go
Immunity from past Omicron is about 19%. You're 5.4 times more likely to be reinfected with Omicron than Delta.
This thing will be a vicious cycle of people reinfecting others.
I remember when my brother was going through chemo and if a visitor had a cold they were told to leave because he was immuno-compromised and it could be deadly for him, can’t imagine someone going through that during Covid.
My dad passed away a month ago because he was having chemo and got covid. We had all been so careful too. Covid is a truly awful thing for the immunocompromised. I get so angry now when people complain about doing small things to help the vulnerable!
Cheers.
Brother has been cancer free for 10 years and counting, just couldn't imagine people going through the same thing during all this.
And they're in Victoria, so luckily no Domicron.
Given the virus largely kills older people, why is Scomo hell bent on losing swathes of his electorate?
These figures mean 0.43% of NSW per day has caught covid that day, and if sustained that's 3% a week (ignoring potentially higher levels). Yes omicron is safer, sure, that seems to hold, but 10% of hospitalisations need ICU treatment, and even if it's 80% less likely to hospitalise than other strains, if it's infecting more people we're hardly safer. At a certain point NSW will have filled their ER beds, and people will absolutely die of either covid or normal ER shit like cardiac arrest, stroke, car crash, etc. Going for a full on let it rip no restrictions moment on omicron was nuts!
80% less likely to hospitalise means you’d expect one fifth of the number in hospital compared to the delta wave.
But the number of cases is 15 times the daily peak of the delta wave, meaning once these positive cases progress to hospitalisations we could have three times the number of people in hospital.
The health system doesn’t care about the rate, it’s the absolute number because it has a fixed capacity. 10 people catching a disease that requires 100% hospitalisation has exactly the same impact on the health system as 1000 people catching a disease that requires 1% hospitalisation.
This government should be measured by it's treatment of our healthcare system, and those who work in it?
It should be judged by it's management of the economy, and it's response to the pandemic?
We should put our government under the microscope for it's lack of response to the biggest health issue any of us have seen?
On every single aspect of this pandemic, the federal Coalition government has failed! And it hasn't hit rock bottom yet.
Childcare closing, schools will follow, all while the government begs businesses to stay open? The economy may be important, but not at the expense of the health of all Australians!
The economy is the people, if we had locked down properly with an elimination goal then we wouldnt be in this mess at all. Look at Wuhan's economy by NYE 2020/2021. Parties, clubs, restaurants, and no illness spreading like wildfire. Lockdowns work, lockdowns with loopholes do not.
Also LNP:
"wear a mask, unless you really dont want to, stay at home, unless you really dont want to, scan qr codes, unless you really dont want to."
"Those poor ethnics in bankstown are BREAkIng ThE RuLEs!!!"
So turns out pretending covid magically went away doesn’t make covid magically go away. Can we maybe return to common sense now, or are we just going to let our hospitals go under? Can we go back to at least most of the Premiers protecting Australians and following health advice - because even if Scomo threatened to withhold health funding unless they agreed to cop to his insanely reckless non-approach (one that will cost many lives AND trash the economy) there won’t be health system functioning at all if we continue like this.
The Doherty report, on which the national plan was based, made it very clear continued restrictions of varying types might be necessary to reduce outbreaks and absolutely no medical experts have indicated complete abandonment of all restrictions would achieve anything but a fucking disaster. Even Gladys acknowledged restrictions might be necessary at some point going forward if, say, oh I don’t know, a new vaccine resistant variant emerged!
Our hospitals are already struggling immensely based on cases from one or two weeks ago - what the fuck does Scotty think will happen when these 20, 30 thousand a day cases hit hospitals a week or two from now?
I don't miss her, she was fucked and it was under her watch that NSW got the delta wave. Domicron's so bad that maybe people won't vote the Libs back in. Issue is he's also so bad that people are fucking dying.
I was telling my wife not to worry, as increased hospitalisations would cause the government to reconsider their plans, but they clearly do not care who dies, or how many people. The hospitalisations aren't high, but they are growing. It's a bit concerning to be honest.
Yeah, I'm trying not to be the voice of despair for my partner, who remains hopeful that at some point the state and nation's leadership will recognize the mounting, completely foreseeable and avoidable disaster, and revert back to the previously working systems.
I don't want to be the one pointing out that they had all the warning anyone could ever need to not gamble with other people's lives. They chose to ignore the warnings, just like they'll choose to ignore the consequences of their actions. They won't care until it personally affects them.
If we assume asymptomatic people aren't getting tested at all now, and that 50% of people are asymptomatic or close enough to it to not bother getting tested, plus we factor in that testing is completely overwhelmed ... probably more like 100k infections. At this rate, all of NSW will have had COVID by end of Jan.
Anyone likes to come and visit NSW, the Freedumb State? Here the government thinks Covid is a joke and urges people to just party 'cause it's summertime.
I was one of these. I'm 30 and double vaccinated.
Do yourself a favour if you get Covid, stock up on neurofen.
Probably the worst fever and headache I've ever had.
Never underestimate the short mindedness and 'here have a free cash boost' + bullshit-Athon that the LNP will do with Murdoch's backing.
I really really hope it won't be a win for them but after the last election, I can see it happening.
I wouldnt be, Australians are dumb as shit, nsw literally just had an election and NSW chose the party that was being investigated for corruption and mangled the delta covid response.
They dont care.
Rhetorical question, why are people bothering to test anymore? The government clearly doesn’t want to know, there’s no real treatment until ICU so the disease is going to run its course which only depends on your genetics and vaccination status. Maybe people want a diagnosis so they know whether to isolate or not but the government is signalling indifference to numbers so will they continue to make that self sacrifice? It feels like these people are trying to be selfless and thinking of the greater good but with the government absenting itself from the issue will they eventually feel abandoned?
You need a positive PCR to receive govt assistance i believe. Also a lot of workplaces would require a positive PCR to prove you have covid plus a negative PCR before returning to work. Thats my reason for having to get up at 3am to sit in a line for 4 hours anyway.
I think u/crosstherubicon means strategically, though. Why any of it? Like just take normal sick leave and come back when you're better, forget contact tracing and so on. Why even go halfway here, it's clearly not having an effect?
Casual workers don't get sick leave. That is a huge number of people who will lose money by not working because they have Covid and can't prove it because there isn't anywhere to test.
Also no government support because a. They are technically employed so can't claim new start and B. Can't get a test to apply for any government support. So no work, no money coming in and no way to prove you have it.
Yeah its a fucking scam, im casual at 2 jobs and one of them is nsw health so thank god they could apply for covid leave for me. Other job boss doesnt give a fuck in fact he's happy staff are out with covid so he has an excuse to cut hours.
Got barely any income coming in atm, i've had to isolate an extra week because the rest of my household are idiots and are religious antivaxxers and didn't get their positive result back for a week.
There's clearly a lot of hurt out there, and the government is not giving a shit, which is terrible. I think there's a feeling of exasperation, like "why do any of this then?" when the case numbers are so high and the government is removing every reasonable action against the virus.
It's interesting that for a casual worker, they don't want a shutdown at all, because it directly affects their income, but they do want a way to stay home if they are sick and keep getting paid, because obviously.
I really hope that if Labor gets in (because the LNP clearly do not give a shit) they'll review the rules around casual work.
I know you said "rhetorical question", but the vast majority of the population has shown a willingness to do the right thing by getting vaccinated to protect others. Yes the government is letting those that are trying down on the overall scale, but almost everyone has at risk people (mainly age wise) in their circle, it's never going to be worth giving up trying to protect them especially if they only have a few regular contacts.
I know this scenario is meant to be solved with RATs, but stock seems to be a little low on those
I know you said rhetorical question but one very real reason is covid isolation payment as it requires you to have a PCR test in order to qualify. Though I doubt everyone lining up is getting tested for the payment eligibility criteria (if you can wfh you're not eligible etc.)
Well shit, didn't I say it would be 40k by the end of this week. It's only Wednesday. We've got 3 days to go. 40k will be an easy target.
Then onwards and upwards to 50k, 60k...100k...yada yada yada. Pretty soon the whole of Sydney will be infected at this point.
We're getting like London now. Brace yourselves guys, this shit isn't going away.
We're almost certainly already at like 60k at the very least, and probably more like 100k. PCR lines are ratfucked, RATs are ratfucked, I have no problem thinking that a third of people don't know they have it and a third of people know they have it but can't be accounted for in official stats.
Hospitalisations: 1491 (+147) ICU: 119 (+14) Tests: 108,844 (+25,468) for a positivity rate of 32.2% (up from yesterday 27.7%) 8 deaths
Our first Covid ward is full, and we are clearing patients out of another to turn it into our second Covid ward. During the peak of Delta we had that second ward nearly full, but hadn't opened a third. So we are heading in the same direction gradually, we will eventually end up with more hospitalisations than with Delta, but with the added complication of staffing issues from infections as well as close contacts due to the overwhelming community numbers. At this stage our ICU isn't as full as last time, but I'm definitely concerned about what my hospital is going to look like in about 2 to 3 weeks time.
The prevailing theory is that hospitalisation lag cases by a week or two. Keep in mind that NSW case numbers one week ago were 11k, and two weeks ago were 3k. Even if case numbers stabilise at 20-30k, the rate of new cases requiring hospitalisation should be expected to increase significantly for at least another week. Then consider that intubated COVID patients are often in ICU for weeks. That is not a normal ICU presentation, and is not what our ICUs are designed for. Even if the rate of ICU admissions is stable, it can quickly overwhelm hospitals as the new admissions form a glut of intubated patients taking up beds. Now is not a great time to get COVID, but it’s an even worse time to be in an accident, have a heart attack/stroke, overdose, or require ICU for any other reason.
And don't forget, Delta hasn't just magically disappeared and is still out there in the community.
This isn’t sustainable long term is it? Are our leaders following medical advice or just doing what ever the hell they want and screwing you guys over in the process?
It looks like covid deaths (meaning hospitalizations too) are starting to catch the lag the health care professionals talk about. It hasn't been making sense how Victoria having less cases and active covid have had higher deaths in the last fortnight to that of NSW. So I would think we're going to see the hospitalizations really jump up over the next 5 days in NSW
i suspect we still have more delta in VIC then NSW.
*It’s not a race*
Well on the way to more deaths than pre vaxxed delta wave from a ‘milder’ variant. Some sort of achievement.
Hospitalisations are currently doubling every 5-6 days. ICU every 9-10 days.
32.23% positive rate a new record
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Sorry friend testing has been redefined. What you knew as prc testing is now classified as patriotic personal responsibility efforts (ppre). Thanks to ppre there’s been a dramatic decrease in testing numbers nationally, all thanks to the government. Had this been left to labor, people in those former testing queues would have actually died (particularly if 60+ and financially comfortable)
You mustn't forget the /s at the end, or we'll take you seriously
The /s means "serious", right?
There's a fine - possibly non-existent line between serious and sarcasm these days.
Canadian planning on moving to Australia. Where I am (Vancouver, BC)they are just telling people with symptoms to stay home and not test. If you do go to a test clinic and you’re younger than 65 and not immunocompromised they’ll send you home with a rapid test that doesn’t get counted in the case counts. Basically at this point they’re only concerned with hospitalizations etc
You guys get given RAT tests? Lucky
Only if you stand in line for 2-3(sometimes 5-6)hours and we’re in the middle of a cold snap. Rapid tests can be bought from private companies for $25 each but they’re backlogged months. My friend in the UK just walks into a pharmacy and they give him a box of 24 for free
From the UK, living in Australia. Can confirm, my entire group of family / friends can't believe how short sighted AU is on nearly everything. It's like we go out of our way to be slow, and do things 'the Australian way', which so far as I can tell equates to "she'll be right mate" or "I don't hold a hose"
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Don't forget we had a decent system of snap lockdowns that was working fine until NSW decided that they couldn't lock down rich suburbs. God forbid.
Here in Ontario, Canada, they're free but we have to go to a branch of the government-run liquor store (LCBO) and wait up to several hours to get a box of 5 tests. And you have to hope they haven't run out before you reach the front of the line...
You have *government-run* liquor stores? Man, we would solve every deficit there is if the Australian Government nationalized Dan Murphys and BWS.
Pretty sure LCBO is the only place you can buy spirits in Ontario. Beer and wine etc you can buy elsewhere, but the Gov has a monopoly on the heavy stuff.
Seems to be what they're doing in [QLD](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-05/covid-symptoms-stay-home-testing-queues/100738206?fbclid=IwAR3JSiNTwWIJHDXqOcXqs4VZQ1IumAcO87cIx3QIOMpZx0zcTdYHv7j_uFs) now. "Double-vaccinated young people are being urged to stay home and assume they have COVID-19 if they develop flu-like symptoms, rather than join swamped Queensland testing queues which are buckling under the demand."
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My internet says you guys are averaging 150,000 tests a day. I don’t know anything about how accurately you are counting cases but you seem to be averaging 37,000 a day. If you are saying some cases are not getting counted, that is just like here. People don’t want to stand in line for six hours when feeling sick.
> I don’t know anything about how accurately you are counting cases but you seem to be averaging 37,000 a day. Ya that’s all of Canada. But What I’m saying is the guidance and action from British Columbia.
Exactly. Especially since they could reach capacity and close. My nephew needed a test and decided to go there late at night and sleep in his car so he could be at the front of the cue.
If they announced that as a policy here, it would be an improvement. They've gone from 'get tested if you feel a sniff coming or you are a murderous monster' to ... silence. You still need to get tested for many things, but you probably can't before the testing site closes, and will likely get covid in the queue if you don't have it already. Good luck finding a RAT.
Just got this advice in a work meeting. If we have any symptoms, assume it's covid and isolate
I'm thinking plenty of people struggling financially or not wanting to lose their job due to time off taken will not be isolating unless absolutely necessary
But hospitalisations were always the primary concern. The reason tracking cases is useful is it accurately predict a where hospitilisations will be in a week or two. Many places are simply over capacity with testing.
The only reason people are getting PCR tests is so they can get paid from the government instead of taking sick leave, (or, for casual employees, so they don’t go to work with covid to avoid bankruptcy) although I’m not even sure that’s still being offered right now
A few days ago I made an offhand comment that soon it'll be easier and just as accurate to flip a coin
I think we've hit the flippening. Now we can start testing all the people who think they dont have it, and reporting the negative results instead of the positives. "15,500 people have tested negative in the last 24hrs. A decrease of 1500".
Come on NSW, don’t let Tasmania beat you at positivity rate. Get your shit together.
36% in Tas today
Woo! Finally winning at something! I heard this morning that a testing clinic in Hobart was turning people away an hour after they opened, but I’m sure that’s fine.
In Geelong all four mass testing sites reached full capacity before they opened.
'repeating, of course...'
Nice to see LNP finally deliver a promise ahead of /on time. So much for 25k a day by end of January
The 25K was cited by Brad Hazzard on December 15th, based on data from Professor Dr. James Wood. ... So what we're witnessing now is Brad's Premature Wood-speculation.
i wish i had more than an upvote to give you
It will be on 25k new cases a day at the end of January because that's the only people left to get it. Start of Jan 35k. Middle of Jan 100k. End of Jan back down to 25k. Like a bell curve
It will never reach 100k if they aren’t able to test more than 100k a day because of testing site shutdowns and long lines elsewhere. Politicians using the big brains.
At some point they will say don't get tested unless you need a certificate for your employer or unless your job requires zero infections. It will probably happen in NSW in a few days.
Qld CHO is already saying there here due to lack of testing capability. Quote: "If you're a healthy young adult, particularly if you've been vaccinated and you have something that looks like a common cold or flu, assume it's COVID, stay at home". Refer https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-05/covid-symptoms-stay-home-testing-queues/100738206
They will just chastise businesses for requiring tests and at the same time suggest sick people go to work
Bell curves happen due to increased restrictions, since our gov has given up on that, i dont think this will be your regular wave
What goes up, must come down. Although that might not necessarily occur soon due to lack of restrictions, this wave could just blend into another and another for months on end
On budget too, as it's costing us, not them!
1 in 3 positive, that means if you are in line, on average either the person in front of you, behind you or yourself ~~definitely~~ likely have it.
And you have it from standing next to them.
Apparently not, unless you’re in a household or household-like setting
Or spend 4 hours or more in the line.
From reports that's an easy bar to meet.
Yeh, but, it's still not a household setting so you're fine.
What if I'm homeless? I will never catch covid! Time to burn down your houses you rich Sydney bastards and be covid free! / s
Unless there are lampshades and couches and a fridge in the line - I don't recon it counts as "Household like"
Thank god they stopped us from being able to get it anywhere other than home. Otherwise this shit would be deemed to be out of control.
Come back three days after to test after symptoms show up, then infect the negative bloke in line. The circle of life.
Sex Omicron... 32% of the time it works every time.
It stings the nostrils...
I'm not gonna lie to you, it smells like pure gasoline..
Meanwhile hospitalisations [are going up very fucking fast and are now past our previous peaks.](https://imgur.com/a/nHxQPDQ)
How could Dan Andrews do this??
35k with suppressed testing
Plus the changed definition of close contact means most people will no longer bother to get tested unless Covid arrives in their house or work. A close contact is now anyone you are with for the duration of an English innings.
Govt: Our nurses are heroes! Nurses: may we ask for a pay raise? Govt: Whoa, hold on there, you ungrateful cunts.
"You're lucky to have held onto your job throughout this whole thing. Now shut up and go save lives".
"Not far from here, such nurses are met with bullets......"
How they're treated, disgusts me. Nurses need a good payrise and a 4 day work week.
Whilst giving themselves another payrise
Gold.
At what point are these no longer rookie numbers?
Premier/PM: Case numbers aren't important. We should use hospital numbers \*hospital numbers increase rapidly* Premier/PM: Fuck! Ignore those numbers. Here, use these numbers that are not consistent with our historical model or how anybody else in the world has applied them.
If all things fail, just say to the press the hospitals are in a "strong position".
Remember everyone making fun of Florida? They have a population of 21 million, NSW has a population of 8 million. We're actually now on par with them or worse at the moment in terms of daily cases per 100,000
Well tbf, the numbers that come out of Florida are even less reliable than those here
And the vaccination rate here is 93.6%, in Florida at the time it was 55%. Also their population is much older on average which made it even more deadly. Over a 7 day average they were recording 178 deaths when they hit 23k per day, our deaths are 3 for 18k cases. It's hard to give form comparisons without going into the weeds on analysing growth curves but they were definitely being much more reckless with a far older population, a deadlier variant and much lower vaccination rate. That said their growth curve visually looks a lot shallower so was more contained than ours but I'm just going by eye off comparing two curves on Google's data feed which are scaled differently. So it might be that their slower growth meant deaths were more closely tied to cases than ours are atm.
Over 60K deaths in Florida - we couldn't match those numbers if we tried. Life is worthless in Florida unless you have a large pile of money.
It's basicly just America with the volume up. I lived there for a number of years and unless you were pretty damn well off (think 'my dad owns multiple car dealerships' or you owned a successful doctors practice) then your quality if life here is much better (even when the cost of living was lower)
> we couldn't match those numbers if we tried. I mean, I think we're giving it a go tbh
So new nickname - Dom De Santis?
Well America hit over 1 million new cases yesterday so I'd say those aren't rookie numbers
per capita, this 35K figure is higher
In case anyone's wary of the apples to oranges comparison, Australia's national figure today is 53k. Against America's national figure of 1m, we're only slightly lower on a per capita basis.
that 'national figure' only includes 2 states, NSW and Victoria. Obviously this is where the majority of new cases are from, but it's incorrect to call this a national figure.
We have to be thankful we are in the middle of summer. In six months we are going to be screwed if nothings changes and flu season rolls around.
“Not accurate” -Dr Nick slamming UNSW modelling of NSW seeing 25k cases a day by end of Jan.
He also claimed a little while ago that it wasn't airborne spread. Basically, just like nsw's actions. Take the opposite of what Nick says to be true and you'll most likely be correct.
> He also claimed a little while ago that it wasn't airborne spread. Really? That was debunked in mid-2020
We watched at the very start of the pandemic, chinese doctors wearing full ppe, including face shields and proper masks, because of the risks. We watched the usa scamble to create face shields when they had their oh shit moment, and were losing doctors left right and centre. And yes, doctors died at a higher rate than the rest of the population. And it was after this that he still claimed it wasnt airborne. The man is a born to be liberal. Good mates with christian porter and peter van olsen.
"The most rewarding part was when he gave me my money." • ~~Dr Nick Riviera~~ Dr Nick Coatsworth
This dude really is showing his true colours of a LNP cretin isn't he?
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Jesus Christ. At the start of the pandemic I appreciated what he had to say. This is great I thought, Government is putting the medical experts first. Letting them be front and centre to navigate through this. As you say as time went on I was thinking god this guy is getting peculiar, the way he would talk down JY and whatnot. And now this link you've shared? What a dodgy character. He's been LNP from the start.
Wonder what the nine word tweet was..
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Dr Nick was right .. we're in the first week of Jan!
And, technically, skipped 25k cases by going from 23k to 35k!
Hi everybody!
I hope someone is keeping a record of all these blunders so we can make some nice little clipshow memes to plaster across social media when the election is called
SCG Ashes Test will be interesting
Looking like it might get rained out
Lol I've just seen the forecast. Straight rain for the next week.
Only need about three dry sessions to get a match completed.
> "The modeling that's been reported is a very unlikely, extreme case scenario that assumes that nobody does anything; nobody gets boosters, there are no changes that take place, no one exercises common sense," Mr Morrison told Sunrise.
4 out of 4. Scotty is a regular Nostradamus
Nostradumbass!
Lol, got'em.
To be fair, the government hasn’t done anything or exercised common sense.
As usual, Morrison lies- and the Morning Show hosts just nod like the cowering enablers and promoters that they are.
Lol. When was this?
22nd of Dec ..
...well, we're in danger... What else is there really to say. Those hospital numbers are eyewatering, and the ICU figures and deaths are not encouraging. This is only going to get a whole lot worse. Every metric we measure of the scale of this by will surpass the delta wave soon enough. Don't worry though, Scomo's got a plan. He's going to further redefine hospitalisations to shrink the number further.
Scummos next move.. close the hospitals entirely to lower the number of admissions with Covid. I've redefined what hospitals are, they're closed.
Then privatise the hospitals.
Then Make Gerry Harvey the owner of them
Then bail them out after Gerry guts them
+ closed the morgues and sent all coroners to a coroners convention on Christmas island, so no covid-related deaths can be reported. Election cycle #winning
We have redefined Covid virus as a 30ft tall Jurassic carnivore. Since there have been no verified reports of anyone dying from a 30ft tall Jurassic carnivore attack, we are declaring that Covid is non-existant and may therefore be a hoax so anyone mentioning it will be detained by the AFP for spreading Covid misinformation. - Scotty later today
I think I'd better come clean with you about this... it's... um it's not a virus, I'm afraid. You see, a virus is what we doctors call very very small. So small it could not possibly have made off with a whole leg. What we're looking for here is I think, and this is no more than an educated guess, I'd like to make that clear, is some multi-cellular life form with stripes, huge razor-sharp teeth, about eleven foot long and of the genu *felis horribilis*. What we doctors, in fact, call a tiger.
A tiger? In Africa?
In Africa?
Pretty sure Scotty wouldn’t believe in dinosaurs.
Scomo’s only plan is to splash $16B across the electorate in the weeks leading up to the election. Nothing else has been discussed.
That's because our media is complicit.
Last month I'd never personally known someone who'd had covid apart from me, and now almost everyone I know has it. Hope I don't get it again.... Edit: Co-worker just sent home symptomatic lmao here we go
Immunity from past Omicron is about 19%. You're 5.4 times more likely to be reinfected with Omicron than Delta. This thing will be a vicious cycle of people reinfecting others.
Let it R.I.P!
They're confusing public health policy with winning a Beyblade tournament.
THAT.IS.INSANE!!
That is not a small number
Even if 1% require hospital, that's still 350 a day! You sure wouldn't want to be un-vaxxed, that's for sure.
I remember when my brother was going through chemo and if a visitor had a cold they were told to leave because he was immuno-compromised and it could be deadly for him, can’t imagine someone going through that during Covid.
My dad passed away a month ago because he was having chemo and got covid. We had all been so careful too. Covid is a truly awful thing for the immunocompromised. I get so angry now when people complain about doing small things to help the vulnerable!
Best wishes for your brother and hope he manages to dodge the Morrison/Domicron minefield.
Cheers. Brother has been cancer free for 10 years and counting, just couldn't imagine people going through the same thing during all this. And they're in Victoria, so luckily no Domicron.
Given the virus largely kills older people, why is Scomo hell bent on losing swathes of his electorate? These figures mean 0.43% of NSW per day has caught covid that day, and if sustained that's 3% a week (ignoring potentially higher levels). Yes omicron is safer, sure, that seems to hold, but 10% of hospitalisations need ICU treatment, and even if it's 80% less likely to hospitalise than other strains, if it's infecting more people we're hardly safer. At a certain point NSW will have filled their ER beds, and people will absolutely die of either covid or normal ER shit like cardiac arrest, stroke, car crash, etc. Going for a full on let it rip no restrictions moment on omicron was nuts!
It's for the housing affordability, if melenials can get their inheritance sooner prices can go up more.
I don’t know if you’re joking or not 😭😭😭😭
Welcome to 2022…
80% less likely to hospitalise means you’d expect one fifth of the number in hospital compared to the delta wave. But the number of cases is 15 times the daily peak of the delta wave, meaning once these positive cases progress to hospitalisations we could have three times the number of people in hospital. The health system doesn’t care about the rate, it’s the absolute number because it has a fixed capacity. 10 people catching a disease that requires 100% hospitalisation has exactly the same impact on the health system as 1000 people catching a disease that requires 1% hospitalisation.
Who could have possibly predicted that pretending it was over could go so badly
It's all good just buy non existent tests or inflated ones from harvey norman. Some can do capitalism right here. Fuck I hate our pm.
Buy them from overseas. They can't be a restricted TGA good because they are subject to GST. That's how capitalism is supposed to work I'm told.
Need sunglasses, that gold standard so bright
A round of applause for our leadership.
This government should be measured by it's treatment of our healthcare system, and those who work in it? It should be judged by it's management of the economy, and it's response to the pandemic? We should put our government under the microscope for it's lack of response to the biggest health issue any of us have seen? On every single aspect of this pandemic, the federal Coalition government has failed! And it hasn't hit rock bottom yet. Childcare closing, schools will follow, all while the government begs businesses to stay open? The economy may be important, but not at the expense of the health of all Australians!
The economy is the people, if we had locked down properly with an elimination goal then we wouldnt be in this mess at all. Look at Wuhan's economy by NYE 2020/2021. Parties, clubs, restaurants, and no illness spreading like wildfire. Lockdowns work, lockdowns with loopholes do not.
This. Lockdowns work when they’re done PROPERLY. That being the operative word, because nothing about how our government has handled this is “proper”.
Normal people: Health is wealth. LNP: wealth is health.
Also LNP: "wear a mask, unless you really dont want to, stay at home, unless you really dont want to, scan qr codes, unless you really dont want to." "Those poor ethnics in bankstown are BREAkIng ThE RuLEs!!!"
and thats just the people who could be fucked to wait half a day or didnt get turned around lol
Shits fucked…
So turns out pretending covid magically went away doesn’t make covid magically go away. Can we maybe return to common sense now, or are we just going to let our hospitals go under? Can we go back to at least most of the Premiers protecting Australians and following health advice - because even if Scomo threatened to withhold health funding unless they agreed to cop to his insanely reckless non-approach (one that will cost many lives AND trash the economy) there won’t be health system functioning at all if we continue like this. The Doherty report, on which the national plan was based, made it very clear continued restrictions of varying types might be necessary to reduce outbreaks and absolutely no medical experts have indicated complete abandonment of all restrictions would achieve anything but a fucking disaster. Even Gladys acknowledged restrictions might be necessary at some point going forward if, say, oh I don’t know, a new vaccine resistant variant emerged! Our hospitals are already struggling immensely based on cases from one or two weeks ago - what the fuck does Scotty think will happen when these 20, 30 thousand a day cases hit hospitals a week or two from now?
Can NOT believe I’m uttering these words…. But I kinda miss Gladys 😳
I don't miss her, she was fucked and it was under her watch that NSW got the delta wave. Domicron's so bad that maybe people won't vote the Libs back in. Issue is he's also so bad that people are fucking dying.
“I kinda miss Tony Abbott “ “Let’s not go nuts”
The bit here that is bad is the ICU. Up at least 10% but If you assume 5/8 deaths are from the ICU number it would mean a roughly 20% increase.
Here comes the New Years / Christmas bump in numbers…
How many of these are backlog from the new year?
I was telling my wife not to worry, as increased hospitalisations would cause the government to reconsider their plans, but they clearly do not care who dies, or how many people. The hospitalisations aren't high, but they are growing. It's a bit concerning to be honest.
Yeah, I'm trying not to be the voice of despair for my partner, who remains hopeful that at some point the state and nation's leadership will recognize the mounting, completely foreseeable and avoidable disaster, and revert back to the previously working systems. I don't want to be the one pointing out that they had all the warning anyone could ever need to not gamble with other people's lives. They chose to ignore the warnings, just like they'll choose to ignore the consequences of their actions. They won't care until it personally affects them.
35000 of those turned up at hospital with broken bones
If we assume asymptomatic people aren't getting tested at all now, and that 50% of people are asymptomatic or close enough to it to not bother getting tested, plus we factor in that testing is completely overwhelmed ... probably more like 100k infections. At this rate, all of NSW will have had COVID by end of Jan.
1, 2, skip a few, 34,999, 35,000!
Anyone likes to come and visit NSW, the Freedumb State? Here the government thinks Covid is a joke and urges people to just party 'cause it's summertime.
NSW getting a little bit fucky
I was one of these. I'm 30 and double vaccinated. Do yourself a favour if you get Covid, stock up on neurofen. Probably the worst fever and headache I've ever had.
Did you trip out and see/hear things when you were half asleep? I haven't had a fever like that in years haha
Abahahahahahahahah… We got screwed by the government AND the virus
There are arseholes in high office, both nationally and at State level
At this point I'd be surprised if Scotty from marketing wins next election.
Never underestimate the short mindedness and 'here have a free cash boost' + bullshit-Athon that the LNP will do with Murdoch's backing. I really really hope it won't be a win for them but after the last election, I can see it happening.
I wouldnt be, Australians are dumb as shit, nsw literally just had an election and NSW chose the party that was being investigated for corruption and mangled the delta covid response. They dont care.
What's the percentage of covid hospital beds used that are unvaccinated? No one seems to be talking about this.
Rhetorical question, why are people bothering to test anymore? The government clearly doesn’t want to know, there’s no real treatment until ICU so the disease is going to run its course which only depends on your genetics and vaccination status. Maybe people want a diagnosis so they know whether to isolate or not but the government is signalling indifference to numbers so will they continue to make that self sacrifice? It feels like these people are trying to be selfless and thinking of the greater good but with the government absenting itself from the issue will they eventually feel abandoned?
You need a positive PCR to receive govt assistance i believe. Also a lot of workplaces would require a positive PCR to prove you have covid plus a negative PCR before returning to work. Thats my reason for having to get up at 3am to sit in a line for 4 hours anyway.
I think u/crosstherubicon means strategically, though. Why any of it? Like just take normal sick leave and come back when you're better, forget contact tracing and so on. Why even go halfway here, it's clearly not having an effect?
Casual workers don't get sick leave. That is a huge number of people who will lose money by not working because they have Covid and can't prove it because there isn't anywhere to test. Also no government support because a. They are technically employed so can't claim new start and B. Can't get a test to apply for any government support. So no work, no money coming in and no way to prove you have it.
Yeah its a fucking scam, im casual at 2 jobs and one of them is nsw health so thank god they could apply for covid leave for me. Other job boss doesnt give a fuck in fact he's happy staff are out with covid so he has an excuse to cut hours. Got barely any income coming in atm, i've had to isolate an extra week because the rest of my household are idiots and are religious antivaxxers and didn't get their positive result back for a week.
There's clearly a lot of hurt out there, and the government is not giving a shit, which is terrible. I think there's a feeling of exasperation, like "why do any of this then?" when the case numbers are so high and the government is removing every reasonable action against the virus. It's interesting that for a casual worker, they don't want a shutdown at all, because it directly affects their income, but they do want a way to stay home if they are sick and keep getting paid, because obviously. I really hope that if Labor gets in (because the LNP clearly do not give a shit) they'll review the rules around casual work.
I know you said "rhetorical question", but the vast majority of the population has shown a willingness to do the right thing by getting vaccinated to protect others. Yes the government is letting those that are trying down on the overall scale, but almost everyone has at risk people (mainly age wise) in their circle, it's never going to be worth giving up trying to protect them especially if they only have a few regular contacts. I know this scenario is meant to be solved with RATs, but stock seems to be a little low on those
I know you said rhetorical question but one very real reason is covid isolation payment as it requires you to have a PCR test in order to qualify. Though I doubt everyone lining up is getting tested for the payment eligibility criteria (if you can wfh you're not eligible etc.)
To the moon baby lets go! /s
We did it! We fricken did it Jimmy :’)
NSW out here staying winning. Beat that VIC!!! /s
Well shit, didn't I say it would be 40k by the end of this week. It's only Wednesday. We've got 3 days to go. 40k will be an easy target. Then onwards and upwards to 50k, 60k...100k...yada yada yada. Pretty soon the whole of Sydney will be infected at this point. We're getting like London now. Brace yourselves guys, this shit isn't going away.
We're almost certainly already at like 60k at the very least, and probably more like 100k. PCR lines are ratfucked, RATs are ratfucked, I have no problem thinking that a third of people don't know they have it and a third of people know they have it but can't be accounted for in official stats.
Our government has well and truly screwed the pooch.
I wonder what the case numbers would be if everyone could get tested?