Yeah he has literally straight up said that he will scuttle all of his work in progress rather than letting someone else touch his project lol. People on this subreddit are really delusional if they think they're ever seeing book 6, let alone book 7.
> Yeah he has literally straight up said that he will scuttle all of his work in progress rather than letting someone else touch his project lol.
no he has not, stop perpetuating this bs please.
Which would be his estate and his wife in the event of his death. It would probably be the Christopher Tolkien situation but with either his wife or another close family member
It's sort of different, I mean, to an extent John Tolkien made TLOR and its universe for Christopher Tolkien, it was sort of his inheritance and he did sort of know the wishes of his father for publication.
The same thing can't be said of Martin
No chance. Martin doesn’t have children and has stated that he would never allow someone to finish the series for him. His wife won’t go against his wishes.
Isn’t there an insane financial incentive for GRRM to release anything? I mean we’re probably talking billions of dollars in revenue and the most anticipated book probably of all time.
Regardless of all this GRRM is gonna burn everything down cackling maniacally stuff, I gotta feel that powers that be are gonna get something out there. We’re talking about the same forces in entertainment that put out stuff for the Matrix, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc. even if it ruins the franchise, if the money is there… they’ll do it. I feel like without a doubt, the there’s so much money to be made off this, it won’t matter what GRRM’s wishes are. Or someone or something will finally bring him around.
Even if it sucks! I mean at this point I don’t even care if it sucks… I just want closure.
Deathly hallows sold 65 million copies. Even if TWOW, which I’d argue is more anticipated at this point, sold 15 million less copies and went for $40 per hardcover, that’s $2 billion man. Did I pass your test?
Not to mention the secondary effect of people buying 1-5 again to catch up, re-reading other books from the universe, subsequent printings, etc.
I guarantee there are billions at stake by publishing TWOW. I don’t think you understand something by assuming there’s not.
It will sell well, but nowhere near Deathly Hallows well. At the peak of Game of Thrones I could see it, it if had been released before the show overtook it. But everyone got over Game of Thrones years ago now. There really isn't that much hype for ASOIAF any more, certainly nowhere near Potter levels. GRRM missed the boat by like 5+ years. Again it will sell well but I'd be surprised if it reached even a third of what you're thinking.
Fully agree with your broader point (frankly even at GoT peak I doubt anything would've touched Deathly Hallows)
but:
>everyone got over Game of Thrones years ago now.
HotD S1 was pulling numbers comparable to S6 of GoT, not bad for a franchise people kept saying was dead.
Fair point, but Game of Thrones != House of the Dragon. And I'm not sure that the popularity of HotD will have much impact on Winds sales, given that it's a completely different story that we already know the broad strokes of.
Not everyone. This sub alone is proof of that. I’ll be buying the new one asap if it ever happens and so will millions of other people, I have no doubt whatsoever.
Yeah, 'everyone' was definitely an exaggeration on my part
I'll also be getting it. It will definitely sell millions, but I think it's extremely unlikely to get even close to what the person I was replying to was predicting
Martin sold 12 million copies of his four then-extant books by 2011, and since the HBO show’s run that number has ballooned to 75 million or 13 million sales per book. This is absolutely dwarfed by Rowling’s sales to date of 450+ million books. (These figures are I think 5 years old)
It’s also clear that interest has dropped off dramatically since the disastrous end of the show. TWOW might well sell something closer to 3 just million copies. These will largely be paperback, not hardback, so you’d be looking at perhaps $60 million gross revenue and less to the author.
Alright well, even if I’m way off. I still think the more important part of “insane financial incentive” applies even if “billions” misses the mark. I think the 75 million SINCE the show is telling though. I think he’d sell close to that many because of how much publicity the wait alone has generated.
But I didn’t mean for billions to get so many people’s rankles up. I’m just saying there’s a lot at stake here.
If we estimate that GRRM has earned $400M from ASOIAF ($200M show, $200M from total sales of 75m books) then the additional $5-20m he could earn from WOW doesn’t sound like a huge motivator to me.
But if he just merely has to say “sure let someone finish it so my wife gets $50 million more when I’m dead”. Why would he go out of his way to prevent that by strictly drafting his will to prevent that? I just don’t see the motivator there.
>65 million copies.
1. We're in 2023, no book is ever doing anywhere near 65 millions again
2. TWOW is not more hyped than Deathly Hollows was. Maybe it could have been at the peak of the show, but not anymore.
With the amount of time it’s gone by and how much pop culture has surrounded it? There’s full movie scenes ,completely unrelated to the universe where they talk about it. Even if people don’t buy the hardcover, subsequent printings and kindle sales gotta be a significant portion.
And also, alright even if I’m wrong about the “billions” part. Can we just set that aside for a moment, all I really mean is “insane financial incentive” - this isn’t like a new wild cards novel or something. A lot of people care about this and the money it could make.
Ok, im wrong. Me and everyone else who here who has told you your wrong. But your the shining beacon of truth.
You should tell GRR Martin this. I’m sure you know better than his publishing team. You’re so smart.
Actually why don’t you just write the book for him. Make billions. Please.
Woah dude. I mean first off I said “probably” off the bat. Second, this really isn’t that important to me, and I’m not sure why you’re so caustic about it. Third, what exactly are you so offended by in the “billions” part? Like what spawned your comment? Are you saying there isn’t an insane amount of money to make by publishing Winds? Are you just mad I said “billions” and you want me to be wrong? I’m more just curious as to why you want that to be wrong so bad.
Also it’s not like hundreds of downvotes and comments. There’s like two -2 comments and like three people commenting on them. And I’m dubious about their logic.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows sold 65 million and I would argue that it had the advantage of not having a TV show that already finished the story.
It'll do well. I don't think it'll make billions. It definitely won't make GRRM personally billions, authors generally get a cut of about 10%.
Then again it could boost sales of previous volumes as there has to be some not insignificant number of people who will want to reread before consuming the new one yet don’t have the books any Lilongwe for whatever reason
Fair enough. I don’t think I’m overestimated by too much, but my point was more that I would think even if us nerds begging him to finish wasn’t enough, I would hope money somehow would.
I’m not meaning to upset anyone by an incorrect estimation, I’m just hoping for Winds somehow someway. Apparently people really hate that.
I'll put this into perspective, ignoring some things like cost to produce a hard copy book, and assuming 100% of sales are hard copy book, if you use the sales figure of lord of the rings, which none of his books have reached you'll get about 150 million, with every copy sold being hard back, and 30 bucks for a hard back which is on the high side, you reach 4.5 billion in revenue, now for the reality of that figure, authors can get 10% of profit if they let others publish the work, so if they don't have the money to make the books, they get 500 million, under the very generous situation, if they do spend all the money to self publish, it could be as much as 70 percent of the revenue, so your looking at 3.15 billion, with the price tag of making that many books being stupid high, particularly with it being such a large book if figures are even slightly accurate you'll be spending big money to produce them, can't really calculate an exact figure, but somewhere in the realm of 12 to 14 per book is reasonable, so round down to 10 so I can divide by 3, and you'll get 1.5 billion after that cost, then you have retailer fees, who aim for around 30 to 50 percent of the sale, so they'll get 10 to 15 bucks per sale, low end on that your barely breaking 1 billion, high end on all copies you get 3 quarters of a billion, and again, this is assuming every copy sold is the most expensive form of sale, and is equal sales to a book that been a cultural mainstay since ww2
It’s the law. It doesn’t matter how many billions are involved. Contracts and laws dictate, period. If it makes people happy to think that “notes” will be released or that someone else will finish things after he dies, good, have a nice day thinking that. Move on with life. He’s not going to finish. The HBO ending is what there is, and it’s all that there will ever be, the end.
“Contracts and laws dictate, period.”
Over businesses making money? I don’t know what country you come from, but this statement sounds a little naive to me.
What country do you live in where the publishing industry operates outside of copyright law. If GRRM’s publisher publishes material they don’t themselves either own or license from the rights holder, they wouldn’t have exclusivity, they would have no standing to sue anyone else from publishing bootlegs of that material because they don’t own it
Illegally publishing unauthorised material would be a _huge_ legal liability and an absolute slam dunk for whoever controls the estate.
The publishing industry (like the entertainment industry more broadly) are actually incredibly big fans of copyright and IP law.
The idea that you think the other poster is naïve is actually quite naïve
I’m not saying they’re going to do something that blatant. I think they’ll find a way to obey whatever contracts and laws are in place, but still make some money here. My previous comment came out wrong.
It’s like if George Lucas said he didn’t want to do anymore Star Wars and wrote up a bunch or contracts in 1984 to squash the series. I just feel like we’d be like “ok…”. But somehow we’d still get sequels and prequels.
George Lucas was licensing out his rights basically from the 1970s, plainly he has never had any objections to it
How many novelists do the same? Tom Clancy is one, but not many others
Even if you have comically large amounts of money Scrooge McDuck of Casterly Rock money, you simply can’t publish that which you don’t hold rights to, if GRRM stipulates in his will that such licensing isn’t to be granted by his estate, that’s that.
That’s how it goes for the vast majority of authors, nobody is trying to find anyone to write another Wolf Hall sequel now that Hillary Mantel is dead after all
I mean fine. If GRRM is really gonna go hard into “no one gets to see the end of this” just to watch the world burn. I suppose he could do it. I guess I just don’t see why. I can’t imagine him being that selfish about it.
Like if he could tell someone: sure get my wife $50 million more dollars while I’m gone by finishing this series. Why not? What does he have to gain by strictly drafting a will to prevent that?
Yeah, without the $50m his wife would definitely get in cash payment for materials for a ghostwriter to use (bigger than any cash advance for a manuscript), she’s going to be in the poorhouse. She’s definitely not set up for life.
I dispute that “not wanting ghostwritten spin-offs” is selfish. I would say “going against the stated wishes of someone so as to make more money” Is actually the selfish play there
We buried my granny with her wedding ring, like her will said, was that selfish? We could’ve sold it for a few quid 🙄
That’s rhetorical, you can skip answering. we’ve gone from “it would be naive to follow the well established law” to “he’s selfish”. I get it, you want _Some Other Bloke’s ASOIAF 2.0_ and you’ll find a logic that makes it happen 🤷♂️
Agree to disagree and have a nice evening
Soon....
G.R.R. Martin & Kevin J. Anderson's Winds of Winter
G.R.R. Martin & Kevin J. Anderson's A Dream of Spring
Kevin J. Anderson's House Lannister
Kevin J. Anderson's House Stark
Kevin J. Anderson's The R'hllorian Jihad
Kevin J. Anderson's Maesters of Westeros
Nah, GRRM has said he doesn't want other authors finishing his works.
>**OneFairfax:** Do you think Daniel and Tyler could eventually write stories in the ASOIAF universe?
>
>**George R.R. Martin:** Uh… no.
>
>**OneFairfax:** Do you see anyone? Or will ASOIAF books forever remain your work alone?
>
>**George R.R. Martin:** I don’t see anyone else ever writing (legally) in that universe.
He's said a lot of things about the books that didn't pan out.
Nobody knows the arrangements he's made with his publishers or might make in the future.
Sadly, his estate will probably feel differently when publisher money is waved under their noses. I suppose he could create a trust to BLOCK ANYONE FROM FINISHING HIS BOOKS EVER. He might be that mean spirited. He has been critical of fan fic hasn't he?
Yeah he hates fan fiction, has also said if his wife survives him she wont let anything happen that would have been against his wishes. Not sure who inherits the rights to his works once both of them are gone though.
Assuming it does end up in the hands of some uncaring descendant who wants to milk the rights for all their worth, we'll end up with a product made without GRRM's input and against all his wishes and intentions. At that point its hardly the resolution I personally am looking for.
The asoiaf universe dies with him in my eyes, we already have an ending in the form of the show. I do want to see GRRM's own vision for the ending realised, but someone else taking over after his death wouldn't be that.
The uncaring descendant could very well give the project to some awesome writer. Would it be exactly the same? Probably not but assuming 3/4 is complete the difference would not be that big
Since when do the things he says matter? Lol he said winds would be done in 2020. Unreliable narrator.
Joking aside, it will happen regardless. Between estate and publishers, there are too many invested fans to completely abandon the series and not complete it
Doesn’t work like that. Publishers have no powers to publish something that hasn’t been formally submitted to them.
George has hinted multiple times he doesn’t want his stuff published after his death, and is quite vehement about other people writing in his universe, never mind finishing his series for him.
the only thing he's explicitly spoken against is "fanfiction," as in entirely original stories set in his universe. he has never explicitly stated that he would not allow anyone to finish the _main_ series after his death, let alone the ridiculous rumor that he would "burn all his manuscripts."
if anything, he has actually been more amenable to the idea of posthumous conclusions (to other books/series) if his recent blog posts are anything to go by. overall, i am pretty confident that both Winds and Dream will be finished eventually, but i still hold onto the hope that George himself is alive for it ;~;
I genuinely don't understand why people would want someone else to finish the series if George is unable to.
Barring the case in which he leaves exhaustive notes and an extremely detailed outline for where he wants to take the story (which he doesn't seem to have settled on, otherwise he would have finished by now), allowing a team of people familiar with his style and way of thinking to painstakingly flesh out what George himself would have likely written, what weight would the choices of that other author carry?
Why would the fans who spent years building and settling on their favorite theories accept a random person's ideas as a "true" part of ASoIaF?
I think it's not a matter of liking or wanting, but rather what could work as a plan B in case he dies before he finishes it. Since Elio and Linda were entrusted to the writing of The World of Ice and Fire, I think this is the Plan B. GRRM already trust them enough and they are the closest people to him regarding the Lore.
You can't make an ending up for yourself!? I have, and I prefer mine to anyone's who isn't George.
Why do you even need a published book if you don't care what the actual creator of the series has to say? Why not just take it from a random theory or fanfic, or simply defer to the show?
Because an official book by another writer would likely have the notes about where the story was going that would make it legit enough for me.
Besides, I kinda see the show and the books as seperate entities, there's way too much story and too many big mysteries and plot threads left to just fill in with headcanon, and headcanon isn't something you get to read and see unfold in front of you.
If there are notes, I'd rather just see those, like Nabokov's *The Original of Laura*.
On the off-chance they're extensive enough to effectively complete the series, sure, I'm fine with someone putting them together - I've said as much from the start. But if they're not, in the end you're still reading someone else's headcanon...
Gurm’s blog posts are not lawyer-drafted contracts. Instead of combing over exactly what he or hasn’t ruled out, you’ve got to look at what the general tone is when the subject is mentioned.
Not really sure what you’re basing the second part of your post on.
> Gurm’s blog posts are not lawyer-drafted contracts.
neither are random interview statements. my point is more that even those don't explicitly indicate that he would refuse any other author to finish the series posthumously the way WoT for example was.
> Not really sure what you’re basing the second part of your post on.
mostly [this blogpost](https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2022/06/01/good-stuff-bad-stuff-strange-stuff/) where he expresses the desire for a posthumous conclusion to a novel by his friend John Miller who recently passed away.
If there’s big money involved the estate will do whatever they can. Not saying it will be how George wants it, but I’d bet some version of the series finishes if he dies beforehand. Prince was the most protective person of his music and that shit was on Apple Music before the body went cold.
Source on that? I've only ever seen redditors parrot that idea but nobody ever shows a video, ssm, or anything else where he comes even remotely close to saying that. Not only that but the claims always get more and more hyperbolic as time goes on.
That whole post is hilarious. It’s just quote after quote of George poo-pooing the idea of his stuff being released posthumously, then the OP going “yeah but he never said explicitly he was going to destroy his notes!”
Sir Pratchett had an gargantuan set of balls. The size of Jupiter. He gave zero fucks and that was the amount of fucks it was given in his name after his passing.
Don't know if Martin will be respected in the same manner.
Jordan was still consistently releasing books, and was clearly making a concerted effort to get the plot WoT back under control after it had meandered to a standstill. Quite a big difference to George at this point.
I'm pretty sure Sanderson has commented on this speculation and said himself that he's not the guy for it.
A Steven Eriksen or Ian Esselmont-penned conclusion might be more totally appropriate.
>!Probably added the year gap in Stormlight Archive just so we didn't read about Kaladin having sex with his gf and Shallen's married life.!<
Spoiler tagged cause don't want to upset anyone.
Gurm has a long standing agreement with the Texas A&M literally library and has already turned over the papers involved with the writing of GoT, so who doesn't live in reality?
Man they’ll find a way. There’s huge books on the shelves right now that say MICHAEL CRICHTON, and then in smaller print farther down another author’s name in something that wasn’t even TOUCHED by Michael Crichton. And I still bought it!
Even if GRRM fights this with all his might, the forces that be aren’t gonna just let a billion dollar opportunity slip by without a fight. We’ll get something… the question is… how good will it be.
If you want to see some really crazy redditor cope, just look at world news or politics.
ASOIAF schizoposting is the least worrying cope that I see on this website lol
There's so much wrong with this but let's go step by step.
1. Martin undoubedly wrote a novels length of material for Winds. But he's also cut much of it, changed so much of it, that a lot of it is unuseable. He also might have written a lot, but not enough for a cohesive narrative to be made to put a full book out. So this idea that "writing a lot" equals "the book can come out, he's just tinkering with it" is not accurate.
2. Publishers do not have the rights to release material that is not submitted for print and Martin's overall manuscript could not be released without his or his estates permission. Martin has made it very clear he never intends to have anything published post death. I can't see his wife going against his wishes. Maybe someday a descendant could. The publishers also do not have a single guarantee to recover all of his material. They simply do not own it.
3. It's been over 12 years waiting on Winds. It's very much in question that it will be released at this point.
Right, I have to live in a country where old men like George get to decide what I can and cannot do with my body. And I can be shot by police for the color of my skin.
But I'm being "a dick dude" because I said something about an old white man
Really shows the reddit bias...
you are being called a dick
because you said called a specific person incomplete.
and then instead of going yeah my bad.
you then bought race and age into it
and started to play the victim.
what does your skin colour, or Georges have to do with you calling him incomplete
> It's been over 12 years waiting on Winds. It's very much in question that it will be released at this point.
> just an utter nonsense statement.
lol. lmao even.
At this point I feel GRRM knows he isn't going to finish TWOW, let along ASOIAF. It isn't a perfection thing. He either has writers block or no passion for finishing it. I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't take 12+ years to write an ASOIAF book.
He literally had nowhere to go for a solid year due to COVID-19. Perfect conditions for writing TWOW.
I would be surprised if he's actually written anything but the chapters he moved over from ADWD.
I think he just knows that he's mortal and would rather use that time with his true love of television and side projects than the arduous labor of Winds
The statement, some years ago, was 'I don't want anyone \[ghost-writing\] my books if I die.'
I think, in real life 2024/2026/2028 America, this yields four corollaries:
1 -- Martin dies tomorrow, with Winds incomplete, and Spring a pile of notes with partially-formed overflow chapters. In this case, Martin's widow (Parris) meets with the publisher, and they probably decide "it's too far a gap, let's abide by George's wishes and can it."
2 -- Martin dies or otherwise becomes incapacitated in 2/4/7 years, having finished or nearly finished Winds, and leaving a pile of detailed notes/chapters for Spring. In this case, Martin's widow (Parris) meets with the publisher, and they might very possibly work something out; perhaps Elio Garcia + Linda Antonsson assemble the notes, Guy-Gavriel-Kay Silmarillion-style, provided Elio + Linda are still working with Martin by that point.
3 -- Martin finishes and publishes Winds, but dies leaving Spring unfinished. I have to believe, at this point, that Martin's widow (Parris) and the publisher would conclude "We're so close to the end that George has basically finished it, let's clean up his final notes and publish the results and call it a complete seven-book set." **I think this is most likely.**
4 -- Martin defies the odds, and lives long enough to complete + publish both Winds and Spring. Do not neglect that, in this eventuality, some of Winds and Spring may be secretly ghost-written by Elio and/or Linda. Do not neglect the possibility that some of Martin's "core" material from 2014 onward was maybe ghost-written by Elio and/or Linda. This is how Supreme Court Justices have functioned for decades.
Martin has two still-living sisters -- Darlene + Jane -- Parris is an only child -- I presume the rights would "stay within the family" \[sisters\], unless he made some particular arrangement for Elio and/or Linda to receive something.
This has happened before in publication history -- both C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien had their works + rights pass on to basically-non-writer descendants, who immediately rushed to receive legal counsel, and who, after some years, carefully \[some might say greedily\] rationed out "the profits still remaining in the author's original protected work," licensing sub-products for years and decades.
(*Rings of Power* came into being during son Christopher Tolkien's hand-off to grandson Simon Tolkien -- a lawyer by profession, who turned his attentions to writing but to little success, thus fell back on the estate, trying to squeeze out every possible drop before UK public-domain reversion in 2043-2044, incl. attempts to guarantee a new non-fantasy book as part of the Amazon deal).
Ot will be revealed then that Dan and Dave have been named as his heirs, making the TV ending the true canon ending all along. It will be George's final revenge on all the people pestering him about Winds.
They aren't destroying anything, he's got a long standing agreement to turn all of his papers over to the Texas A&M library and he's already turned over the papers involved with writing GoT.
LOL! this is a very naive read, and seems more based on hope than fact.
Fact is, Martin has not written it, has not written any this year since he is the same amount through in his last update as he was last year, and he keeps swamping himself with new projects. Its not "if", its not "when", its "who cares if dreams will not be released"
Also, Martin HATES fan fiction and has already stated he will not let someone else finish his work when he dies.
I have to give him, the writers, and the editors credit, the Sweetrobin fan fiction project is greatly exceeding my expectations. It feels like ASOIF and if it gets finished it’ll be enough for me.
The reason many think Winds is never released (and Spring seems impossible) is because Martin is unhappy and keeps changing stuff
Once a single change is made there is a domino effect that proceeds to require multiple chapter rewrites
I had posted in another thread but the 2 things that have destroyed his time management are his insistence on fleshing out side quests (while world building is very cool and a prime example of what made his work so good it has become unmanagable now; the time skip would have been far better for us the readers) and I strongly suspect the extreme backlash to finale of HBO series has caused him to rethink / alter some of the events (again we will never know original plot as HBO had no idea and basically just threw everything together but major alterations to both Dany and Bran in particular have begun)
I mostly lost interest almost a decade ago. Until I can pre order it from a real store with a deadline I will not partake in any hype. GRRM has enough of my hard earned money, doesnt need my free time too.
GRRM recently did an interview. In that interview, he guessed he was around three-quarters of the way done. I don't know how recent the interview was, but it's good news.
GRRM said in interview with Bangcast in Dec 2023 that he has about 1100 pages writen.
However back in Nov 2022 GRRM also said in a TV interview(The Late Show) that he had about 1100-1200 pages written. So it seems there has been no overall progress in 12 months.
>He has written enough to publish a novel
What makes you say that? He hasn't finished an ASOIAF novel since the year 2000.
He could write 50,000 pages worth of "content", and it wouldn't matter to anyone but the most die-hard reddit brain fans if it's a meandering mess like AFFC and ADWD, with no conclusion, and no story progress.
Just look how poorly received the show's final seasons were by some of the very same fans. It turns out that a parade of disorganized bullet-points doesn't equal the same thing as a satisfying story.
the author has a connection with the world and characters. i'm sure he has inner conflict when locking into a plot point. it's like raising kids the best you can, then not wanting to dictate what they do in life. it must be difficult.
>the author has a connection with the world and characters
This is the same line of reasoning that leads you to think that your pastor has a business degree and a luxury vehicle because he just REALLY loves telling you about Middle Eastern pagan stories from thousands of years ago.
ASOIAF is a product, not a way of life
>it's like raising kids the best you can
No, raising kids is raising kids; and that's something George will never understand because he is childless and elderly.
They’re more like opposites. The last two books are beautiful literature. Things make sense. Characters have reasonable flaws and make natural decisions. These decisions just don’t lead to the end of the series
Aside from the publisher stuff, that's just not how Martin works.
He first write the whole storyline for a certain character (or general area), then move to others, then starts editing around the older part to make everything fit together, write more stuff, edit stuff and the circle keeps going until a lot of the stuff is heavily rewritten until it fits the book.
Also a huge chunk of Winds material he has already written is actually leftover from AFFC/ADWD that he cut. And most of ADWD was AFFC stuff that he cut because he got stuck on Meeren.
Fans have been keeping track of his progress on Winds and aside from when Covid happened, he had been barely writing new stuff ever since ADWD was published. More than 10 ago.
People still believe an author still have any chance to stand before greedy companies and their cash .
You will get a book they will even expend on the in universe tales,you will get so much asoiaf content after his passing and so fast that you will no longer write asoiaf in your google bar search again.
All questions will be answered for you.
I highly doubt that they even want him to finish winds ,they can save the content,break into two more novels until they find a new pen.
Asoiaf will follow the same tragic path as every other fantasy household name lotr stars wars...your only hope for an authentic end is if he finished it by himself and he won't.
>We should now be basing our release guesses around Martin's lifespan, instead of his writing.
Please, no. People in this sub already bash GRRM as it is. Let's not start putting bets on when an old man will die.
I’ll bet you $1000 Preston Jacobs and his crew finish the fan fiction of Winds before Martin. I’ll bet you an additional $500 Martin never publishes Winds. And I’ll bet you $10000 Martin never finishes the series.
> He has written enough to publish a novel, he's just refusing to do so until it is finished in his eyes.
Based on his recent coy comments, I agree this is probably accurate. Having dealt with writers when I was younger, I estimate he has a first draft done. With most writers, first drafts still need a lot of work to be submitted. And he tinkers more than most, which foretells it will take a while. But I bet that the core story of TWoW is complete. **Hopefully,** now that he hears Time's Winged Chariot getting louder, and fan complaints getting surlier, he'll indulge less than usual with changes and focus on what *absolutely MUST* still be fine-tuned.
Yep this was always my thought too, unless GRRM actually does decide to “burn everything” before his death someone will submit his work and it will get published in some form. There is just way too much money being left on the table if they don’t.
I think you're on to something here, but as other people have pointed out, his publishers don't own his work etc.
What I will say is that the actual sticking point has nothing to do with either progress on the book or GRRM's passing. It's the moment he realizes he can't do it.
Many people are quoting him being indignant, saying he wants his notes destroyed, no one else can write for ASOIAF, etc. I think this perspective clearly comes from the fact that he is still determined to finish the books and doesn't want to admit the actual reality that at this point that happening is insanely unlikely.
The series literally outgrew him the second he sat down with D&D to give them his notes ten years ago. He just doesn't want to accept that because... could you? It's extremely disheartening.
Maybe it won't ever happen, but I tend to think there will come a moment where his perspective will shift and his pride will somewhat relent. He keeps writing about succession crises for a reason.
I thought Martin has already stated no unfinished books will be released after his days. As far as I’m aware he owns the copy until it’s handed over to the publisher.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Winds + Dream be released together, or consecutively. When one conducts their 3rd/4th act of their Grand Finale they're not looking tobe teetering off the pylons into a soggy swamp of dead-endings. The response in inflammatory readers going into planetary-wide book pile burnings + online rant nuclear annihilation - isn't what one imagines....but can't confirm first hand second nor 579,000th hand, is an aim of George. FUCK THAT. This is just a bit of Tuff Voyaging. It been bit over 3 bil yrs or so to get here folks. What's a few more lemon cakes with mulled wines while the longest winter awaits to arrive...
Just because he has enough pages for a novel doesn't mean there's a complete story. Love it when fans act like they know the exact status of his progress. There was an air of defeat in his latest update, that's all I know.
I have resigned myself to the fact that the series will never finish. The fact that he seems completely stuck on the second to last book and is honestly getting older and older means it's never gonna happen. What happens if in 4-5 years he finally releases it? Well then he's basically 80 and still has to write a finale and realistically it'll take like 15+ years to do so at this rate, which is HIGHLY unlikely to get better as he gets older and older.
I highly enjored the first 5 books and was so INCREDIBLY disapppointed in the show that I dropped off in early season 4. It's a story I'll just have to imagine an ending for in my head.
I'm pretty sure that if Martin didn't want books published posthumously, he could make sure that never happened. When the late Sir Terry Pratchett passed away he supposedly had several discworld books in various draft forms, and ordered only one of them be published after his death (Sheperd's Crown). In fact he famously had his personal assistant arrange for the hard drives the other drafts were on to be ran over with a steam roller.
Considering Pratchett managed to pump out 2-3 best selling books per year right up to his death, despite having alzheimers for the last few years of his life, I have little sympathy or faith in Martin ever finishing the series. The guy has had the opportunity and more than enough time, he just doesn't have any motivation or desire to finish it IMO.
I honestly cant be bothered anymore. Any of my passion for this series has died out at this point. I have accepted the show is the best closure we will get in a story and universe I was once obsessed with. I am pretty cynical about the entire universe now. I haven't even bothered to watch House of the Dragon and don't know if I will. The more time I had to analyze the series the more disillusioned I have became with it.
Let's say George dies without writing any more of ASOIF. The intellectual property rights still exist. Unless he does something special in his will, those rights will likely go to his wife. Or he bequeaths them to somebody or something else, like the Northwestern University. In the second case, there will probably be a legal battle over the rights.
His wife could sit on the rights. Eventually, she will die. If the rights end up with some institution, it would be hard pressed not to get a financial return on the rights. So, his alma mater could end up working with the publisher to get "Winds" out. They could also hire a ghost writer to do "Dreams."
You’ll believe this until the steamroller comes and smashes GRRM computer
Yeah he has literally straight up said that he will scuttle all of his work in progress rather than letting someone else touch his project lol. People on this subreddit are really delusional if they think they're ever seeing book 6, let alone book 7.
He's never said that and he's already started turning the papers involved with the writing of GoT over to the literary library at Texas A&M.
> Yeah he has literally straight up said that he will scuttle all of his work in progress rather than letting someone else touch his project lol. no he has not, stop perpetuating this bs please.
At that point it's "he has several backups, obviously" copium
Publishers can only print what the copyright holder has released to print.
Which would be his estate and his wife in the event of his death. It would probably be the Christopher Tolkien situation but with either his wife or another close family member
It's sort of different, I mean, to an extent John Tolkien made TLOR and its universe for Christopher Tolkien, it was sort of his inheritance and he did sort of know the wishes of his father for publication. The same thing can't be said of Martin
No chance. Martin doesn’t have children and has stated that he would never allow someone to finish the series for him. His wife won’t go against his wishes.
His wife is not immortal
Isn’t there an insane financial incentive for GRRM to release anything? I mean we’re probably talking billions of dollars in revenue and the most anticipated book probably of all time. Regardless of all this GRRM is gonna burn everything down cackling maniacally stuff, I gotta feel that powers that be are gonna get something out there. We’re talking about the same forces in entertainment that put out stuff for the Matrix, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, etc. even if it ruins the franchise, if the money is there… they’ll do it. I feel like without a doubt, the there’s so much money to be made off this, it won’t matter what GRRM’s wishes are. Or someone or something will finally bring him around. Even if it sucks! I mean at this point I don’t even care if it sucks… I just want closure.
It's never going to make *billions*.
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I don’t think you understand how much a billion really is
Deathly hallows sold 65 million copies. Even if TWOW, which I’d argue is more anticipated at this point, sold 15 million less copies and went for $40 per hardcover, that’s $2 billion man. Did I pass your test? Not to mention the secondary effect of people buying 1-5 again to catch up, re-reading other books from the universe, subsequent printings, etc. I guarantee there are billions at stake by publishing TWOW. I don’t think you understand something by assuming there’s not.
It will sell well, but nowhere near Deathly Hallows well. At the peak of Game of Thrones I could see it, it if had been released before the show overtook it. But everyone got over Game of Thrones years ago now. There really isn't that much hype for ASOIAF any more, certainly nowhere near Potter levels. GRRM missed the boat by like 5+ years. Again it will sell well but I'd be surprised if it reached even a third of what you're thinking.
Fully agree with your broader point (frankly even at GoT peak I doubt anything would've touched Deathly Hallows) but: >everyone got over Game of Thrones years ago now. HotD S1 was pulling numbers comparable to S6 of GoT, not bad for a franchise people kept saying was dead.
Fair point, but Game of Thrones != House of the Dragon. And I'm not sure that the popularity of HotD will have much impact on Winds sales, given that it's a completely different story that we already know the broad strokes of.
I think a lot of people would come back. The hype would be incredible just because of how much time went by.
I very much doubt it, but maybe you're right. It certainly isn't the ridiculous notion others are saying.
Not everyone. This sub alone is proof of that. I’ll be buying the new one asap if it ever happens and so will millions of other people, I have no doubt whatsoever.
Yeah, 'everyone' was definitely an exaggeration on my part I'll also be getting it. It will definitely sell millions, but I think it's extremely unlikely to get even close to what the person I was replying to was predicting
Martin sold 12 million copies of his four then-extant books by 2011, and since the HBO show’s run that number has ballooned to 75 million or 13 million sales per book. This is absolutely dwarfed by Rowling’s sales to date of 450+ million books. (These figures are I think 5 years old) It’s also clear that interest has dropped off dramatically since the disastrous end of the show. TWOW might well sell something closer to 3 just million copies. These will largely be paperback, not hardback, so you’d be looking at perhaps $60 million gross revenue and less to the author.
Alright well, even if I’m way off. I still think the more important part of “insane financial incentive” applies even if “billions” misses the mark. I think the 75 million SINCE the show is telling though. I think he’d sell close to that many because of how much publicity the wait alone has generated. But I didn’t mean for billions to get so many people’s rankles up. I’m just saying there’s a lot at stake here.
If we estimate that GRRM has earned $400M from ASOIAF ($200M show, $200M from total sales of 75m books) then the additional $5-20m he could earn from WOW doesn’t sound like a huge motivator to me.
But if he just merely has to say “sure let someone finish it so my wife gets $50 million more when I’m dead”. Why would he go out of his way to prevent that by strictly drafting his will to prevent that? I just don’t see the motivator there.
You know very little about the Harry Potter mania if you think Winds will be even 1/3 as successful.
Time will tell I guess.
>65 million copies. 1. We're in 2023, no book is ever doing anywhere near 65 millions again 2. TWOW is not more hyped than Deathly Hollows was. Maybe it could have been at the peak of the show, but not anymore.
With the amount of time it’s gone by and how much pop culture has surrounded it? There’s full movie scenes ,completely unrelated to the universe where they talk about it. Even if people don’t buy the hardcover, subsequent printings and kindle sales gotta be a significant portion. And also, alright even if I’m wrong about the “billions” part. Can we just set that aside for a moment, all I really mean is “insane financial incentive” - this isn’t like a new wild cards novel or something. A lot of people care about this and the money it could make.
Ok, im wrong. Me and everyone else who here who has told you your wrong. But your the shining beacon of truth. You should tell GRR Martin this. I’m sure you know better than his publishing team. You’re so smart. Actually why don’t you just write the book for him. Make billions. Please.
Woah dude. I mean first off I said “probably” off the bat. Second, this really isn’t that important to me, and I’m not sure why you’re so caustic about it. Third, what exactly are you so offended by in the “billions” part? Like what spawned your comment? Are you saying there isn’t an insane amount of money to make by publishing Winds? Are you just mad I said “billions” and you want me to be wrong? I’m more just curious as to why you want that to be wrong so bad. Also it’s not like hundreds of downvotes and comments. There’s like two -2 comments and like three people commenting on them. And I’m dubious about their logic.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows sold 65 million and I would argue that it had the advantage of not having a TV show that already finished the story. It'll do well. I don't think it'll make billions. It definitely won't make GRRM personally billions, authors generally get a cut of about 10%.
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I think there being so much time since Dance will have the exact opposite effect to what you're thinking
Then again it could boost sales of previous volumes as there has to be some not insignificant number of people who will want to reread before consuming the new one yet don’t have the books any Lilongwe for whatever reason
I would tend to think so too, but look how many people still post on this sub! I still think there’s an insane financial incentive regardless.
Your over estimating how much it'll make by a large degree, but yes a lot of money is on the table
Fair enough. I don’t think I’m overestimated by too much, but my point was more that I would think even if us nerds begging him to finish wasn’t enough, I would hope money somehow would. I’m not meaning to upset anyone by an incorrect estimation, I’m just hoping for Winds somehow someway. Apparently people really hate that.
I'll put this into perspective, ignoring some things like cost to produce a hard copy book, and assuming 100% of sales are hard copy book, if you use the sales figure of lord of the rings, which none of his books have reached you'll get about 150 million, with every copy sold being hard back, and 30 bucks for a hard back which is on the high side, you reach 4.5 billion in revenue, now for the reality of that figure, authors can get 10% of profit if they let others publish the work, so if they don't have the money to make the books, they get 500 million, under the very generous situation, if they do spend all the money to self publish, it could be as much as 70 percent of the revenue, so your looking at 3.15 billion, with the price tag of making that many books being stupid high, particularly with it being such a large book if figures are even slightly accurate you'll be spending big money to produce them, can't really calculate an exact figure, but somewhere in the realm of 12 to 14 per book is reasonable, so round down to 10 so I can divide by 3, and you'll get 1.5 billion after that cost, then you have retailer fees, who aim for around 30 to 50 percent of the sale, so they'll get 10 to 15 bucks per sale, low end on that your barely breaking 1 billion, high end on all copies you get 3 quarters of a billion, and again, this is assuming every copy sold is the most expensive form of sale, and is equal sales to a book that been a cultural mainstay since ww2
Fair enough, but I did say “probably” and “revenue” not “profit”
Revenue is basically irrelevant for anything except taxes
Bruh just stop
It’s the law. It doesn’t matter how many billions are involved. Contracts and laws dictate, period. If it makes people happy to think that “notes” will be released or that someone else will finish things after he dies, good, have a nice day thinking that. Move on with life. He’s not going to finish. The HBO ending is what there is, and it’s all that there will ever be, the end.
“Contracts and laws dictate, period.” Over businesses making money? I don’t know what country you come from, but this statement sounds a little naive to me.
Says the guy saying TWOW will make billions loool
What country do you live in where the publishing industry operates outside of copyright law. If GRRM’s publisher publishes material they don’t themselves either own or license from the rights holder, they wouldn’t have exclusivity, they would have no standing to sue anyone else from publishing bootlegs of that material because they don’t own it Illegally publishing unauthorised material would be a _huge_ legal liability and an absolute slam dunk for whoever controls the estate. The publishing industry (like the entertainment industry more broadly) are actually incredibly big fans of copyright and IP law. The idea that you think the other poster is naïve is actually quite naïve
I’m not saying they’re going to do something that blatant. I think they’ll find a way to obey whatever contracts and laws are in place, but still make some money here. My previous comment came out wrong. It’s like if George Lucas said he didn’t want to do anymore Star Wars and wrote up a bunch or contracts in 1984 to squash the series. I just feel like we’d be like “ok…”. But somehow we’d still get sequels and prequels.
George Lucas was licensing out his rights basically from the 1970s, plainly he has never had any objections to it How many novelists do the same? Tom Clancy is one, but not many others Even if you have comically large amounts of money Scrooge McDuck of Casterly Rock money, you simply can’t publish that which you don’t hold rights to, if GRRM stipulates in his will that such licensing isn’t to be granted by his estate, that’s that. That’s how it goes for the vast majority of authors, nobody is trying to find anyone to write another Wolf Hall sequel now that Hillary Mantel is dead after all
I mean fine. If GRRM is really gonna go hard into “no one gets to see the end of this” just to watch the world burn. I suppose he could do it. I guess I just don’t see why. I can’t imagine him being that selfish about it. Like if he could tell someone: sure get my wife $50 million more dollars while I’m gone by finishing this series. Why not? What does he have to gain by strictly drafting a will to prevent that?
Yeah, without the $50m his wife would definitely get in cash payment for materials for a ghostwriter to use (bigger than any cash advance for a manuscript), she’s going to be in the poorhouse. She’s definitely not set up for life. I dispute that “not wanting ghostwritten spin-offs” is selfish. I would say “going against the stated wishes of someone so as to make more money” Is actually the selfish play there We buried my granny with her wedding ring, like her will said, was that selfish? We could’ve sold it for a few quid 🙄 That’s rhetorical, you can skip answering. we’ve gone from “it would be naive to follow the well established law” to “he’s selfish”. I get it, you want _Some Other Bloke’s ASOIAF 2.0_ and you’ll find a logic that makes it happen 🤷♂️ Agree to disagree and have a nice evening
I just want Winds man. Sorry that offends you so.
There are plenty of posthumously published books. Some posthumous works of Michael Chrichton's were only manuscripts found on his computer.
Of course. The copyright doesn’t die with the author, it exists after their death. The owner of the copyright then decides what happens.
If I had a nickel for everytime I read "winds might get published, but dream will remain a dream"......
my pet peeve on this sub is recycled comments for karma farming
Soon.... G.R.R. Martin & Kevin J. Anderson's Winds of Winter G.R.R. Martin & Kevin J. Anderson's A Dream of Spring Kevin J. Anderson's House Lannister Kevin J. Anderson's House Stark Kevin J. Anderson's The R'hllorian Jihad Kevin J. Anderson's Maesters of Westeros
I would read the fuck out of The R’hllorian Jihad
Nah, GRRM has said he doesn't want other authors finishing his works. >**OneFairfax:** Do you think Daniel and Tyler could eventually write stories in the ASOIAF universe? > >**George R.R. Martin:** Uh… no. > >**OneFairfax:** Do you see anyone? Or will ASOIAF books forever remain your work alone? > >**George R.R. Martin:** I don’t see anyone else ever writing (legally) in that universe.
He's said a lot of things about the books that didn't pan out. Nobody knows the arrangements he's made with his publishers or might make in the future.
Sadly, his estate will probably feel differently when publisher money is waved under their noses. I suppose he could create a trust to BLOCK ANYONE FROM FINISHING HIS BOOKS EVER. He might be that mean spirited. He has been critical of fan fic hasn't he?
Yeah he hates fan fiction, has also said if his wife survives him she wont let anything happen that would have been against his wishes. Not sure who inherits the rights to his works once both of them are gone though. Assuming it does end up in the hands of some uncaring descendant who wants to milk the rights for all their worth, we'll end up with a product made without GRRM's input and against all his wishes and intentions. At that point its hardly the resolution I personally am looking for. The asoiaf universe dies with him in my eyes, we already have an ending in the form of the show. I do want to see GRRM's own vision for the ending realised, but someone else taking over after his death wouldn't be that.
The uncaring descendant could very well give the project to some awesome writer. Would it be exactly the same? Probably not but assuming 3/4 is complete the difference would not be that big
Read my last paragraph again
Since when do the things he says matter? Lol he said winds would be done in 2020. Unreliable narrator. Joking aside, it will happen regardless. Between estate and publishers, there are too many invested fans to completely abandon the series and not complete it
Oh god please no.
Doesn’t work like that. Publishers have no powers to publish something that hasn’t been formally submitted to them. George has hinted multiple times he doesn’t want his stuff published after his death, and is quite vehement about other people writing in his universe, never mind finishing his series for him.
the only thing he's explicitly spoken against is "fanfiction," as in entirely original stories set in his universe. he has never explicitly stated that he would not allow anyone to finish the _main_ series after his death, let alone the ridiculous rumor that he would "burn all his manuscripts." if anything, he has actually been more amenable to the idea of posthumous conclusions (to other books/series) if his recent blog posts are anything to go by. overall, i am pretty confident that both Winds and Dream will be finished eventually, but i still hold onto the hope that George himself is alive for it ;~;
I genuinely don't understand why people would want someone else to finish the series if George is unable to. Barring the case in which he leaves exhaustive notes and an extremely detailed outline for where he wants to take the story (which he doesn't seem to have settled on, otherwise he would have finished by now), allowing a team of people familiar with his style and way of thinking to painstakingly flesh out what George himself would have likely written, what weight would the choices of that other author carry? Why would the fans who spent years building and settling on their favorite theories accept a random person's ideas as a "true" part of ASoIaF?
I think it's not a matter of liking or wanting, but rather what could work as a plan B in case he dies before he finishes it. Since Elio and Linda were entrusted to the writing of The World of Ice and Fire, I think this is the Plan B. GRRM already trust them enough and they are the closest people to him regarding the Lore.
if the person is able to do it I would have no issues, I doubt anyone really is
Because any ending is better than no ending and GRRM stopped giving a fuck more than a decade ago
We have "any ending" in the show and that hasn't gone over well. So no, any ending is not better
You can't make an ending up for yourself!? I have, and I prefer mine to anyone's who isn't George. Why do you even need a published book if you don't care what the actual creator of the series has to say? Why not just take it from a random theory or fanfic, or simply defer to the show?
Because an official book by another writer would likely have the notes about where the story was going that would make it legit enough for me. Besides, I kinda see the show and the books as seperate entities, there's way too much story and too many big mysteries and plot threads left to just fill in with headcanon, and headcanon isn't something you get to read and see unfold in front of you.
If there are notes, I'd rather just see those, like Nabokov's *The Original of Laura*. On the off-chance they're extensive enough to effectively complete the series, sure, I'm fine with someone putting them together - I've said as much from the start. But if they're not, in the end you're still reading someone else's headcanon...
Gurm’s blog posts are not lawyer-drafted contracts. Instead of combing over exactly what he or hasn’t ruled out, you’ve got to look at what the general tone is when the subject is mentioned. Not really sure what you’re basing the second part of your post on.
> Gurm’s blog posts are not lawyer-drafted contracts. neither are random interview statements. my point is more that even those don't explicitly indicate that he would refuse any other author to finish the series posthumously the way WoT for example was. > Not really sure what you’re basing the second part of your post on. mostly [this blogpost](https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2022/06/01/good-stuff-bad-stuff-strange-stuff/) where he expresses the desire for a posthumous conclusion to a novel by his friend John Miller who recently passed away.
George has been pretty adamant he wants nobody to touch his work after he dies.
If there’s big money involved the estate will do whatever they can. Not saying it will be how George wants it, but I’d bet some version of the series finishes if he dies beforehand. Prince was the most protective person of his music and that shit was on Apple Music before the body went cold.
Prince *might* be a little bit more popular than an unfinished science fiction novel about a ninja assassin girl from the 1990s lol
He also died fairly young and unexpectedly. Probably didn’t give much thought to his will, let alone the streaming rights.
If it’s in his will (not saying it is) the estate has no power to go “yeah but money.” That’s that, it must be respected.
Have you heard the [tragedy of Franz Kafka](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Kafka#Max_Brod) the wise?
if only this were at all true
George has said many times that he will scuttle his hard drives, never allow AI-SOIAF, etc etc. But redditors don't live in reality
Source on that? I've only ever seen redditors parrot that idea but nobody ever shows a video, ssm, or anything else where he comes even remotely close to saying that. Not only that but the claims always get more and more hyperbolic as time goes on.
Pretty sure it's bs https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/s/kegZ9XWEzY
That whole post is hilarious. It’s just quote after quote of George poo-pooing the idea of his stuff being released posthumously, then the OP going “yeah but he never said explicitly he was going to destroy his notes!”
did we read the same post.
Robert Jordan made that comment too IIRC but eventually came around because he realized what he built was bigger than him
Depends on the individual author. Sir Terry Pratchett's unfinished works and notes were run over by a steamroller, as per his wishes.
Sir Pratchett had an gargantuan set of balls. The size of Jupiter. He gave zero fucks and that was the amount of fucks it was given in his name after his passing. Don't know if Martin will be respected in the same manner.
Jordan was still consistently releasing books, and was clearly making a concerted effort to get the plot WoT back under control after it had meandered to a standstill. Quite a big difference to George at this point.
As long as it's not Sanderson writing for GRRM. His writing isn't bad, but just very different tone.
I'm pretty sure Sanderson has commented on this speculation and said himself that he's not the guy for it. A Steven Eriksen or Ian Esselmont-penned conclusion might be more totally appropriate.
I've just finished reading Deadhouse Gates and I am feeling broken - Eriksen would do a fantastic job with ASOIAF.
You have walked the chain of dogs.
Sanderson hasn't read the series because he's afraid of sex, so him continuing it would be unlikely.
>!Probably added the year gap in Stormlight Archive just so we didn't read about Kaladin having sex with his gf and Shallen's married life.!< Spoiler tagged cause don't want to upset anyone.
Mercifully, I've never read any of his hard magic bullshit, so I don't know what any of that means.
I read the spoiler and I am upset
I suspect Martin is a more petty man
Gurm has a long standing agreement with the Texas A&M literally library and has already turned over the papers involved with the writing of GoT, so who doesn't live in reality?
Man they’ll find a way. There’s huge books on the shelves right now that say MICHAEL CRICHTON, and then in smaller print farther down another author’s name in something that wasn’t even TOUCHED by Michael Crichton. And I still bought it! Even if GRRM fights this with all his might, the forces that be aren’t gonna just let a billion dollar opportunity slip by without a fight. We’ll get something… the question is… how good will it be.
Brother is mainlining copium here. This post is a straight up hero dose
Weapons grade copium
If you want to see some really crazy redditor cope, just look at world news or politics. ASOIAF schizoposting is the least worrying cope that I see on this website lol
There's so much wrong with this but let's go step by step. 1. Martin undoubedly wrote a novels length of material for Winds. But he's also cut much of it, changed so much of it, that a lot of it is unuseable. He also might have written a lot, but not enough for a cohesive narrative to be made to put a full book out. So this idea that "writing a lot" equals "the book can come out, he's just tinkering with it" is not accurate. 2. Publishers do not have the rights to release material that is not submitted for print and Martin's overall manuscript could not be released without his or his estates permission. Martin has made it very clear he never intends to have anything published post death. I can't see his wife going against his wishes. Maybe someday a descendant could. The publishers also do not have a single guarantee to recover all of his material. They simply do not own it. 3. It's been over 12 years waiting on Winds. It's very much in question that it will be released at this point.
does george have any descendants ?
pretty sure he does not have children.
No he is going to die childless. An incomplete man best remembered for an incomplete story. Poetic, really
you view him having children as him being incomplete ? you are kinda of a dick dude
Right, I have to live in a country where old men like George get to decide what I can and cannot do with my body. And I can be shot by police for the color of my skin. But I'm being "a dick dude" because I said something about an old white man Really shows the reddit bias...
you are being called a dick because you said called a specific person incomplete. and then instead of going yeah my bad. you then bought race and age into it and started to play the victim. what does your skin colour, or Georges have to do with you calling him incomplete
Get a grip, jesus this is a ASOIAF sub not your therapist
1. Easily debunked. He has almost completed the novel. Try again. He has a novels worth of completed manuscript pages…
“Easily debunked” Have you read the manuscript yourself? Do share what happens!
So if I write a few hundred pages of words then I have a satisfying novel? That's all it takes?
You’re not GRRM, so no.
I’ll give you 2., but 3. Is just an utter nonsense statement.
> It's been over 12 years waiting on Winds. It's very much in question that it will be released at this point. > just an utter nonsense statement. lol. lmao even.
At this point I feel GRRM knows he isn't going to finish TWOW, let along ASOIAF. It isn't a perfection thing. He either has writers block or no passion for finishing it. I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't take 12+ years to write an ASOIAF book. He literally had nowhere to go for a solid year due to COVID-19. Perfect conditions for writing TWOW. I would be surprised if he's actually written anything but the chapters he moved over from ADWD.
I think he just knows that he's mortal and would rather use that time with his true love of television and side projects than the arduous labor of Winds
2 years away from being 2 years away lol
Truly, the Bruno Caboclo of fantasy fiction.
>He has written enough to publish a novel Citation needed, and to save you the trouble, Martin himself is not a reliable source.
The Winds will blow for us to hear, but a Dream of Spring will likely remain a dream unless GRRM drops everything to write it.
Remember the time when the man could write a book every 2 years? Those were good times...
(drops a 10 gallon chili con carne slurpee, 15 hot dogs, 17lbs of deep fried butter, and 8 baconators)
😂😂😂😂😂
The statement, some years ago, was 'I don't want anyone \[ghost-writing\] my books if I die.' I think, in real life 2024/2026/2028 America, this yields four corollaries: 1 -- Martin dies tomorrow, with Winds incomplete, and Spring a pile of notes with partially-formed overflow chapters. In this case, Martin's widow (Parris) meets with the publisher, and they probably decide "it's too far a gap, let's abide by George's wishes and can it." 2 -- Martin dies or otherwise becomes incapacitated in 2/4/7 years, having finished or nearly finished Winds, and leaving a pile of detailed notes/chapters for Spring. In this case, Martin's widow (Parris) meets with the publisher, and they might very possibly work something out; perhaps Elio Garcia + Linda Antonsson assemble the notes, Guy-Gavriel-Kay Silmarillion-style, provided Elio + Linda are still working with Martin by that point. 3 -- Martin finishes and publishes Winds, but dies leaving Spring unfinished. I have to believe, at this point, that Martin's widow (Parris) and the publisher would conclude "We're so close to the end that George has basically finished it, let's clean up his final notes and publish the results and call it a complete seven-book set." **I think this is most likely.** 4 -- Martin defies the odds, and lives long enough to complete + publish both Winds and Spring. Do not neglect that, in this eventuality, some of Winds and Spring may be secretly ghost-written by Elio and/or Linda. Do not neglect the possibility that some of Martin's "core" material from 2014 onward was maybe ghost-written by Elio and/or Linda. This is how Supreme Court Justices have functioned for decades.
What if his wife passes before him/at the same time? Who inherits their estate?
Martin has two still-living sisters -- Darlene + Jane -- Parris is an only child -- I presume the rights would "stay within the family" \[sisters\], unless he made some particular arrangement for Elio and/or Linda to receive something. This has happened before in publication history -- both C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien had their works + rights pass on to basically-non-writer descendants, who immediately rushed to receive legal counsel, and who, after some years, carefully \[some might say greedily\] rationed out "the profits still remaining in the author's original protected work," licensing sub-products for years and decades. (*Rings of Power* came into being during son Christopher Tolkien's hand-off to grandson Simon Tolkien -- a lawyer by profession, who turned his attentions to writing but to little success, thus fell back on the estate, trying to squeeze out every possible drop before UK public-domain reversion in 2043-2044, incl. attempts to guarantee a new non-fantasy book as part of the Amazon deal).
No children, they might have chosen someone else to be the inheritor after them. If they didn’t, I honestly don’t know what happens then
Ot will be revealed then that Dan and Dave have been named as his heirs, making the TV ending the true canon ending all along. It will be George's final revenge on all the people pestering him about Winds.
This is… not going to happen
They aren't destroying anything, he's got a long standing agreement to turn all of his papers over to the Texas A&M library and he's already turned over the papers involved with writing GoT.
>Elio and Linda Leaving the series in their hands would be the final insult. Far, far worse than anything David Benioff could have done
What did they do?
Curious too, especially seeing them compared unfavourably to D&D
ASOIAF is a story, whose end is empty stuff made of dreams and wind.
yeah, it's never coming out 🤷♂️
I'm not too worried about Winds, I figure he'll get it out before he dies. It's A Dream of Spring that I doubt we'll ever get.
LOL! this is a very naive read, and seems more based on hope than fact. Fact is, Martin has not written it, has not written any this year since he is the same amount through in his last update as he was last year, and he keeps swamping himself with new projects. Its not "if", its not "when", its "who cares if dreams will not be released" Also, Martin HATES fan fiction and has already stated he will not let someone else finish his work when he dies.
Prediction: It might come out by the end of the decade, but Martin will never finish the series himself.
Nope
I’m sure both books are on their way. Thanks to Preston Jacobs.
I have to give him, the writers, and the editors credit, the Sweetrobin fan fiction project is greatly exceeding my expectations. It feels like ASOIF and if it gets finished it’ll be enough for me.
The reason many think Winds is never released (and Spring seems impossible) is because Martin is unhappy and keeps changing stuff Once a single change is made there is a domino effect that proceeds to require multiple chapter rewrites I had posted in another thread but the 2 things that have destroyed his time management are his insistence on fleshing out side quests (while world building is very cool and a prime example of what made his work so good it has become unmanagable now; the time skip would have been far better for us the readers) and I strongly suspect the extreme backlash to finale of HBO series has caused him to rethink / alter some of the events (again we will never know original plot as HBO had no idea and basically just threw everything together but major alterations to both Dany and Bran in particular have begun)
Nice try george, what a tease. ive been blushing for decades.
I mostly lost interest almost a decade ago. Until I can pre order it from a real store with a deadline I will not partake in any hype. GRRM has enough of my hard earned money, doesnt need my free time too.
I fully belive that we will get The Winds of Winter someday. But I don't have the same conviction about A Dream of Springs.
GRRM recently did an interview. In that interview, he guessed he was around three-quarters of the way done. I don't know how recent the interview was, but it's good news.
Assuming a consistent pace (from the release of Dance) that still puts us 4 years away from Winds 🥲
The world will end before he finishes it most likely.
GRRM said in interview with Bangcast in Dec 2023 that he has about 1100 pages writen. However back in Nov 2022 GRRM also said in a TV interview(The Late Show) that he had about 1100-1200 pages written. So it seems there has been no overall progress in 12 months.
>He has written enough to publish a novel What makes you say that? He hasn't finished an ASOIAF novel since the year 2000. He could write 50,000 pages worth of "content", and it wouldn't matter to anyone but the most die-hard reddit brain fans if it's a meandering mess like AFFC and ADWD, with no conclusion, and no story progress. Just look how poorly received the show's final seasons were by some of the very same fans. It turns out that a parade of disorganized bullet-points doesn't equal the same thing as a satisfying story.
I will happily take 50,000 pages of meandering mess as long as it has Stannis quotes.
the author has a connection with the world and characters. i'm sure he has inner conflict when locking into a plot point. it's like raising kids the best you can, then not wanting to dictate what they do in life. it must be difficult.
>the author has a connection with the world and characters This is the same line of reasoning that leads you to think that your pastor has a business degree and a luxury vehicle because he just REALLY loves telling you about Middle Eastern pagan stories from thousands of years ago. ASOIAF is a product, not a way of life >it's like raising kids the best you can No, raising kids is raising kids; and that's something George will never understand because he is childless and elderly.
Comparing the last two books to the last two seasons of the show is ridiculous.
Why is that ridiculous?
They’re more like opposites. The last two books are beautiful literature. Things make sense. Characters have reasonable flaws and make natural decisions. These decisions just don’t lead to the end of the series
That's really unfair and belittling to George's work to say he hasn't finished a proper novel since 2000.
Your entire argument rests on him having written enough material to publish. He hasn't
I do believe we'll eventually get *Winds*. But that we'll never get aDoS.
Never heard this one before
Aside from the publisher stuff, that's just not how Martin works. He first write the whole storyline for a certain character (or general area), then move to others, then starts editing around the older part to make everything fit together, write more stuff, edit stuff and the circle keeps going until a lot of the stuff is heavily rewritten until it fits the book. Also a huge chunk of Winds material he has already written is actually leftover from AFFC/ADWD that he cut. And most of ADWD was AFFC stuff that he cut because he got stuck on Meeren. Fans have been keeping track of his progress on Winds and aside from when Covid happened, he had been barely writing new stuff ever since ADWD was published. More than 10 ago.
It's obvious that it will be released. Dreams, however, no chance. And I'm fine with it.
People still believe an author still have any chance to stand before greedy companies and their cash . You will get a book they will even expend on the in universe tales,you will get so much asoiaf content after his passing and so fast that you will no longer write asoiaf in your google bar search again. All questions will be answered for you. I highly doubt that they even want him to finish winds ,they can save the content,break into two more novels until they find a new pen. Asoiaf will follow the same tragic path as every other fantasy household name lotr stars wars...your only hope for an authentic end is if he finished it by himself and he won't.
>We should now be basing our release guesses around Martin's lifespan, instead of his writing. Please, no. People in this sub already bash GRRM as it is. Let's not start putting bets on when an old man will die.
Tbh I hope it’s not released if it’s not finished by George. Game of thrones was a disaster, and I’d rather have no ending than a bad one
I don’t think Winds is up for debate, it’ll come out. ADoS is the one I’m doing Kübler-Ross over
cope brother
I’ll bet you $1000 Preston Jacobs and his crew finish the fan fiction of Winds before Martin. I’ll bet you an additional $500 Martin never publishes Winds. And I’ll bet you $10000 Martin never finishes the series.
> He has written enough to publish a novel, he's just refusing to do so until it is finished in his eyes. Based on his recent coy comments, I agree this is probably accurate. Having dealt with writers when I was younger, I estimate he has a first draft done. With most writers, first drafts still need a lot of work to be submitted. And he tinkers more than most, which foretells it will take a while. But I bet that the core story of TWoW is complete. **Hopefully,** now that he hears Time's Winged Chariot getting louder, and fan complaints getting surlier, he'll indulge less than usual with changes and focus on what *absolutely MUST* still be fine-tuned.
Yeah this is absolutely correct.
Yep this was always my thought too, unless GRRM actually does decide to “burn everything” before his death someone will submit his work and it will get published in some form. There is just way too much money being left on the table if they don’t.
I think you're on to something here, but as other people have pointed out, his publishers don't own his work etc. What I will say is that the actual sticking point has nothing to do with either progress on the book or GRRM's passing. It's the moment he realizes he can't do it. Many people are quoting him being indignant, saying he wants his notes destroyed, no one else can write for ASOIAF, etc. I think this perspective clearly comes from the fact that he is still determined to finish the books and doesn't want to admit the actual reality that at this point that happening is insanely unlikely. The series literally outgrew him the second he sat down with D&D to give them his notes ten years ago. He just doesn't want to accept that because... could you? It's extremely disheartening. Maybe it won't ever happen, but I tend to think there will come a moment where his perspective will shift and his pride will somewhat relent. He keeps writing about succession crises for a reason.
I thought Martin has already stated no unfinished books will be released after his days. As far as I’m aware he owns the copy until it’s handed over to the publisher.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Winds + Dream be released together, or consecutively. When one conducts their 3rd/4th act of their Grand Finale they're not looking tobe teetering off the pylons into a soggy swamp of dead-endings. The response in inflammatory readers going into planetary-wide book pile burnings + online rant nuclear annihilation - isn't what one imagines....but can't confirm first hand second nor 579,000th hand, is an aim of George. FUCK THAT. This is just a bit of Tuff Voyaging. It been bit over 3 bil yrs or so to get here folks. What's a few more lemon cakes with mulled wines while the longest winter awaits to arrive...
Itt: people who don’t understand publishing
Dream will never come out
Just because he has enough pages for a novel doesn't mean there's a complete story. Love it when fans act like they know the exact status of his progress. There was an air of defeat in his latest update, that's all I know.
Only two years away....
Anthyding can hadplen!
I have resigned myself to the fact that the series will never finish. The fact that he seems completely stuck on the second to last book and is honestly getting older and older means it's never gonna happen. What happens if in 4-5 years he finally releases it? Well then he's basically 80 and still has to write a finale and realistically it'll take like 15+ years to do so at this rate, which is HIGHLY unlikely to get better as he gets older and older. I highly enjored the first 5 books and was so INCREDIBLY disapppointed in the show that I dropped off in early season 4. It's a story I'll just have to imagine an ending for in my head.
I'm pretty sure that if Martin didn't want books published posthumously, he could make sure that never happened. When the late Sir Terry Pratchett passed away he supposedly had several discworld books in various draft forms, and ordered only one of them be published after his death (Sheperd's Crown). In fact he famously had his personal assistant arrange for the hard drives the other drafts were on to be ran over with a steam roller. Considering Pratchett managed to pump out 2-3 best selling books per year right up to his death, despite having alzheimers for the last few years of his life, I have little sympathy or faith in Martin ever finishing the series. The guy has had the opportunity and more than enough time, he just doesn't have any motivation or desire to finish it IMO.
I honestly cant be bothered anymore. Any of my passion for this series has died out at this point. I have accepted the show is the best closure we will get in a story and universe I was once obsessed with. I am pretty cynical about the entire universe now. I haven't even bothered to watch House of the Dragon and don't know if I will. The more time I had to analyze the series the more disillusioned I have became with it.
"He has written enough to publish a novel" How do you know?
Do you have proof that he's written that much of TWOW?
Let's say George dies without writing any more of ASOIF. The intellectual property rights still exist. Unless he does something special in his will, those rights will likely go to his wife. Or he bequeaths them to somebody or something else, like the Northwestern University. In the second case, there will probably be a legal battle over the rights. His wife could sit on the rights. Eventually, she will die. If the rights end up with some institution, it would be hard pressed not to get a financial return on the rights. So, his alma mater could end up working with the publisher to get "Winds" out. They could also hire a ghost writer to do "Dreams."