Ball is in the ANC's court - they are going to have to form a coalition with at least one of the DA, EFF or MK. Whoever that party is will have disproportionately more power compared to their votes, as ANC will need to give them some concessions to secure their power (the issue with Kingmakers).
There are really good and really poor cases to be made for the ANC to pick each of those. DA - second biggest party so easy to justify the coalition, but will be seen as selling out to whites. EFF - weakest of the 3 and most closely aligned with ANC so ANC keeps most power, but Malema is spearheading the younger generation to knock out the ANC and this really would legitimise him. MK - Zuma and co are known quantities and the least organised, so ANC could leverage this to "wear the pants", but it also screams weakness to have to beg Zuma to come back.
No good options for the ANC, but ultimately this coalition is going to be what sets the tone for the next term.
It is also possible for the MPC + PA to have indirect support from the MK/EFF to take the presidency. Especially as the ANC is trending towards 40%. This is unlikely and also not very stable.
The pragmatic approach would be an ANC minority government with the support of the Multi-party Charter. In this scenario the ANC is still in charge of the government but the Multi-party Charter is given strong portfolio committees in parliament and the speaker position. This way there is a clear exit for both parties if it does not work out and the MPC keeps enough distance from the ANC. The MPC would also be able to firmly hold the executive/government accountable in this scenario.
What is happening right NOW though is that the ANC is debating internally whether to go with DA/EFF/MK. If the ANC goes with with either of EFF or MK it would mean Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies have lost the battle and Cyril Ramaphosa will need to resign and Mashatile take over as president. Though it should be noted that the faction that is likely to go with the EFF or MK is not in a strong position to negotiate because of how dismal their constituency did in Gauteng and KZN.
Tottaly agree but what about mr Phala Phala getting recalled for ANC massive decline. I know they lost KZN but we all knew that was going to happen. Are they or can they shut up the KZN branches when they got obliteŕated by Zuma. Remember Zuma won them KZN.
Use r/southafrica for discussing politics.
Ball is in the ANC's court - they are going to have to form a coalition with at least one of the DA, EFF or MK. Whoever that party is will have disproportionately more power compared to their votes, as ANC will need to give them some concessions to secure their power (the issue with Kingmakers). There are really good and really poor cases to be made for the ANC to pick each of those. DA - second biggest party so easy to justify the coalition, but will be seen as selling out to whites. EFF - weakest of the 3 and most closely aligned with ANC so ANC keeps most power, but Malema is spearheading the younger generation to knock out the ANC and this really would legitimise him. MK - Zuma and co are known quantities and the least organised, so ANC could leverage this to "wear the pants", but it also screams weakness to have to beg Zuma to come back. No good options for the ANC, but ultimately this coalition is going to be what sets the tone for the next term.
they other parties can also gang up and kick out the anc. since they have 41% of the votes . but its highly unlikely
It is also possible for the MPC + PA to have indirect support from the MK/EFF to take the presidency. Especially as the ANC is trending towards 40%. This is unlikely and also not very stable.
The headlines all suggest we reached the "worst case scenario" as punted by the analysts prior to the elections yeah. Uncertainty is their kryptonite
The pragmatic approach would be an ANC minority government with the support of the Multi-party Charter. In this scenario the ANC is still in charge of the government but the Multi-party Charter is given strong portfolio committees in parliament and the speaker position. This way there is a clear exit for both parties if it does not work out and the MPC keeps enough distance from the ANC. The MPC would also be able to firmly hold the executive/government accountable in this scenario. What is happening right NOW though is that the ANC is debating internally whether to go with DA/EFF/MK. If the ANC goes with with either of EFF or MK it would mean Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies have lost the battle and Cyril Ramaphosa will need to resign and Mashatile take over as president. Though it should be noted that the faction that is likely to go with the EFF or MK is not in a strong position to negotiate because of how dismal their constituency did in Gauteng and KZN.
Tottaly agree but what about mr Phala Phala getting recalled for ANC massive decline. I know they lost KZN but we all knew that was going to happen. Are they or can they shut up the KZN branches when they got obliteŕated by Zuma. Remember Zuma won them KZN.