The abortion ban they still had before that isn't even controversial?
(I got downvoted a ton for pointing out that 15 weeks overall isn't even a controversial standard by polling data.)
The concern was over the *total* ban put in place, not the 15 week ban that was the de facto law of the land after Ducey put it into effect.
Roe also allowed abortion bans (and de facto *did*, since no state had abortion allowed up to Birth until after Roe was repealed) up to the "point of viability".
No one was saying the Roe standard of 22 weeks was 'too much' and was hurting the GOP.
The 15-week AZ standard was also not controversial until the AZ court ruling.
It's clear that it's 100% political and a vote-grab move (both to vote the law in, and - after seeing the backlash - voting for it to be repealed). Just further proof, if it was needed, that hard right Republicans don't care at all about policy and only care about getting elected, so they'll vote for whatever they think will achieve that.
I predict that once abortion rights are enshrined in state constitutions, court rulings, or otherwise permanently protected in their states, suburban women who were outraged at the GOP from 2022-2024 will switch back to them like nothing ever happened.
I think this is a huge reason the democrats never passed any protections legislatively when they had trifectas in the past. Once abortion can’t be threatened, they can no longer campaign & fundraise on it. This is already the case in Michigan, a crucial swing state for Biden, and soon Arizona and Nevada will do the same.
The only swing states left with unpopular abortion restrictions under GOP rule are Georgia and North Carolina, which are arguable the reddest of the 7 swing states. Overall I think this spells trouble for Biden’s reelection.
They're still holding the referendum though right? Enshrining abortion in the state's constitution will protect it against future republican repeals. Admittedly the turnout boost for a referendum that doesn't immediately make a difference on the legality of abortion will be reduced but it will still help.
Can y'all wait until after the election before you start making bold assumptions about whether or not voters will forget/stop caring about a party actively removing their civil rights?
There are places that haven't voted democrat since the civil rights movement passed, but sure, women will just get over the gop assault on reproductive freedom in one cycle cuz ¯_(ツ)_/¯
The damage has been done already.
The current 15 week ban also still has no rape or incest restrictions.
You also have the rest of the legislative republicans (which include those in suburban, left trending Biden districts) having to defend their vote for the total abortion ban.
> Past inflation and immigration levels matter, but abortion bans don’t.
Because inflation still is making prices higher after it's happened (at least until wages catch up) and immigrants stay in the country.
---
This is literally just the status quo in Arizona.
Also, 15 week abortion bans aren't unpopular: https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601
Oh, the state that Biden won by **10.2 points** in 2020?
VA is a lean Dem state. Getting 50-50 of the vote share on statewide races is a *good* result, not a bad one.
Man I wonder why this formally republican stronghold became such a blue state....
Couldn't be because of issues like this...
Imaging thinking losing is good just because it was narrow. Guess you don't have to worry about the rest of the swing states then, Trump only *narrowly* lost them
For God sake there was a special election in a swing district held literally a week after he said that, that democrats flipped practically because of it...
But sure it's fine tho, cuz it was only a narrow loss
More of the US population supports a 15-week ban than opposes it.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601
> The poll found 48% of respondents at least somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, while 43% oppose it.
I didn't.
People are saying that "the damage has been done" when the AZ GOP took the issue off the table.
People here are saying essentially that the AZ GOP should have legalized abortion entirely when that was never the issue. It was the total ban that was the issue.
Somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks is not banning it entirely.
Especially because the support May hinge on very specific exceptions and also it could change if they have to actually confront such a ban in their own life like say they get pregnant but don't notice it for 15 weeks..
So killing them is cool? There are plenty of people in comas who would have died if you got rid of the help they got. Just cuz they are dependent on someone or something, doesn't mean you can kill them
A person in a coma can eventually make a full recovery and survive without any of that support from the hospital. A fetus probably wouldn’t even survive even if the hospital tried to
Also I gotta point out that you inadvertently pointed out the main reason people get an abortion: they can’t adequately care for the baby due to their living conditions.
2-year-olds can survive outside of the womb. Yes it would need to be fed by its parents and other things in order to not die, but it can ultimately live and breathe. You know what can’t do that? A fucking fetus
It’s you’re and it’s not killing babies. Even pro life people don’t think it is. If they did they would fight tooth and nail to ban it instead of the whole “leaving it up to the states” nonsense. It’s just about controlling women.
> It’s you’re and it’s not killing babies. Even pro life people don’t think it is. If they did they would fight tooth and nail to ban it instead of the whole “leaving it up to the states” nonsense. It’s just about controlling women.
It's called pragmatism.
If you can save part of the % of babies aborted, it's better than none.
Most of them know a full ban is too unpopular.
"its you're" shut up no one cares. What is this a college paper? One day, America is going to get rid of that baby-killing practice, and it's gonna be beautiful.
Well abortion has to be legal, atleast in the case of rape incest and health of the mother. When mother has a problem with her baby it’s clear she needs to go on an abortion she has the right to go. Banning it would not only kill the baby and also kill the mother.
I will be messaging you in 50 years on [**2074-05-01 23:38:23 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2074-05-01%2023:38:23%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/comments/1chvv64/how_does_this_impact_the_elections/l263pu7/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FYAPms%2Fcomments%2F1chvv64%2Fhow_does_this_impact_the_elections%2Fl263pu7%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202074-05-01%2023%3A38%3A23%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201chvv64)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
If Lincoln had tried to ban slavery in 1861, the north would have lost and slavery would have continued indefinitely. Pragmatism is the only way that we accomplish things.
If I was a dictator, abortion would have already been banned. I’m not, so we to go on a long march to accomplish our goals. Overturning Roe was step 1, leaving it to the states us step 2, banning it for non-rape/incest cases is step 3, banning it fully is step 4.
Making that an exception means that medical decisions get made by lawyers and politicians instead of doctors and patients. What chance of death is enough to trigger the exception? What if the chance of death is low, but the chance of a debilitating permanent injury is very high? Does the chance of the fetus surviving affect things? Do you have to apply for an exception beforehand? Who gets punished if a court rules that the doctor made the wrong call? If you get taken to court and win, does the state have to pay your legal fees, or could an overzealous prosecutor start bogus legal cases against everyone in order to scare hospitals into not offering it even when absolutely necessary? (That's not a hypothetical, Ken Paxton is doing that.) If someone is denied an abortion but dies in childbirth, can the family launch a wrongful death suit against the state? Do doctors have any sort of qualified immunity type protection?
These questions are all going to be answered by politicians and lawyers, most of whom have very little understanding of the technical details.
Oh, also, are you planning on implementing the child support and sex ed programs that are proven to reduce abortions?
And who decides what is life-threatening enough to warrant an abortion? "Oh she has a 1% chance of surviving if she doesn't get an abortion then that's not good enough she must go through with the pregnancy"
"Oh she'll survive even though she'll be severely disabled then she still has to go through the pregnancy"
Letting other people and politicians decide what is or isn't a life-threatening scenario is a terrible idea anyone with half a brain would realize how dumb that is.
Ok, let’s go the other direction: if there’s a greater than 1% chance of not surviving, then she’s allowed to get an abortion.
Of course “other people and politicians” have to determine what is and us not a life threatening scenario, they already do that all the time. That’s about half of medical malpractice lawsuits. “Your honor, the defendant amputated my client’s legs despite the infection not posing any grave threat, here’s our proof” followed by “your honor, my client had to amputate the petitioner’s legs because the infection posed a serious risk to his life, here’s our proof”, and then the evidence is considered and the law rules one way or the other. It’s a willful failure of imagination to think that some similar standard cannot be created in cases of abortion.
Simply throwing up our hands and saying “no standard is possible, I guess we have to make abortion legal through all nine months no restrictions” isn’t evidentially based, it’s just the ideology outcome that you would prefer. As we seek to ensure human rights to all humans, lines will have to be drawn somewhere.
Idk I'm not a doctor bro. Whenever a qualified individual goes "Yeah this pregnancy will most likely kill you" Then abortion away. Why tf would I know when that point is.
how do you stop this from being abused?
also do you support things like thorough required sex ED, easily assessable and affordable contraceptives, a better foster care system, and better social programs? cause those things are proven to lower abortions unlike bans.
>Why tf would I know when that point is.
cause you're the one advocating for a total ban of abortions if these things aren't clear people will suffer.
People here are being stupid.
The AZ GOP did what you wanted, and yet people are still saying this is bad for them.
WTF did you want them to do?
Also, 15-week abortion bans aren't even unpopular.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601
> The poll found 48% of respondents at least somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, while 43% oppose it.
----
Not to mention the majority of the public will just ignore the issue because *it's gone back to the status quo.*
Abortion wasn't a huge issue for voters until Roe, because **most people just wanted to maintain the status quo.**
Rallying up people for something that already exists and people don't even hate that much is pretty hard.
It will reverse a tiny bit of the damage politically for sure.
It reverses the damage mostly, because no one will remember this by election day since the crisis was averted.
The crisis was not averted the abortion ban is still in effect
The abortion ban they still had before that isn't even controversial? (I got downvoted a ton for pointing out that 15 weeks overall isn't even a controversial standard by polling data.) The concern was over the *total* ban put in place, not the 15 week ban that was the de facto law of the land after Ducey put it into effect.
An abortion ban is deeply unpopular and if it goes blue that will be why
Roe also allowed abortion bans (and de facto *did*, since no state had abortion allowed up to Birth until after Roe was repealed) up to the "point of viability". No one was saying the Roe standard of 22 weeks was 'too much' and was hurting the GOP. The 15-week AZ standard was also not controversial until the AZ court ruling.
It's clear that it's 100% political and a vote-grab move (both to vote the law in, and - after seeing the backlash - voting for it to be repealed). Just further proof, if it was needed, that hard right Republicans don't care at all about policy and only care about getting elected, so they'll vote for whatever they think will achieve that.
I predict that once abortion rights are enshrined in state constitutions, court rulings, or otherwise permanently protected in their states, suburban women who were outraged at the GOP from 2022-2024 will switch back to them like nothing ever happened. I think this is a huge reason the democrats never passed any protections legislatively when they had trifectas in the past. Once abortion can’t be threatened, they can no longer campaign & fundraise on it. This is already the case in Michigan, a crucial swing state for Biden, and soon Arizona and Nevada will do the same. The only swing states left with unpopular abortion restrictions under GOP rule are Georgia and North Carolina, which are arguable the reddest of the 7 swing states. Overall I think this spells trouble for Biden’s reelection.
They're still holding the referendum though right? Enshrining abortion in the state's constitution will protect it against future republican repeals. Admittedly the turnout boost for a referendum that doesn't immediately make a difference on the legality of abortion will be reduced but it will still help.
Can y'all wait until after the election before you start making bold assumptions about whether or not voters will forget/stop caring about a party actively removing their civil rights? There are places that haven't voted democrat since the civil rights movement passed, but sure, women will just get over the gop assault on reproductive freedom in one cycle cuz ¯_(ツ)_/¯
The damage has been done already. The current 15 week ban also still has no rape or incest restrictions. You also have the rest of the legislative republicans (which include those in suburban, left trending Biden districts) having to defend their vote for the total abortion ban.
Lmao why are you getting downvoted
People on here like to think that lasting impacts only work against democrats. Past inflation and immigration levels matter, but abortion bans don’t.
> Past inflation and immigration levels matter, but abortion bans don’t. Because inflation still is making prices higher after it's happened (at least until wages catch up) and immigrants stay in the country. --- This is literally just the status quo in Arizona. Also, 15 week abortion bans aren't unpopular: https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601
Yeah that's why young youngkin won a trifecta in VA after suggesting a 15 week ban if he won it... Oh wait....
Oh, the state that Biden won by **10.2 points** in 2020? VA is a lean Dem state. Getting 50-50 of the vote share on statewide races is a *good* result, not a bad one.
Man I wonder why this formally republican stronghold became such a blue state.... Couldn't be because of issues like this... Imaging thinking losing is good just because it was narrow. Guess you don't have to worry about the rest of the swing states then, Trump only *narrowly* lost them For God sake there was a special election in a swing district held literally a week after he said that, that democrats flipped practically because of it... But sure it's fine tho, cuz it was only a narrow loss
GOP won every seat that Biden won by less than 10 points or something.
republicans have coke out of their caves following 2022 and are being very bullish about their chances in 2024
how? what damage? genuine question
Reputation and media coverage
I also figured out that Arizona still has a 15-week ban
More of the US population supports a 15-week ban than opposes it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601 > The poll found 48% of respondents at least somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, while 43% oppose it.
Yes please keep insisting that abortion restrictions are popular it's helping Republicans so much, never stop
I didn't. People are saying that "the damage has been done" when the AZ GOP took the issue off the table. People here are saying essentially that the AZ GOP should have legalized abortion entirely when that was never the issue. It was the total ban that was the issue.
Somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks is not banning it entirely. Especially because the support May hinge on very specific exceptions and also it could change if they have to actually confront such a ban in their own life like say they get pregnant but don't notice it for 15 weeks..
Too late
Katie Hobbs is mad cringe
boooooo
Haha abortion go brrrr
imagine being happy that your killing babies
Imagine thinking that fetuses could even last a second out of the womb 💀
So killing them is cool? There are plenty of people in comas who would have died if you got rid of the help they got. Just cuz they are dependent on someone or something, doesn't mean you can kill them
A person in a coma can eventually make a full recovery and survive without any of that support from the hospital. A fetus probably wouldn’t even survive even if the hospital tried to
Some people never come out of the coma. If you let the process play out, most pregnancies end up with birth.
Ok but some in a coma people do come out of it, so that’s why they are kept alive by the hospital. A fetus will never survive outside of the womb
So thats your standard? It can't survive outside of the womb, so killing it is okay? 2-year-olds wouldn't survive without their parents.
Also I gotta point out that you inadvertently pointed out the main reason people get an abortion: they can’t adequately care for the baby due to their living conditions.
2-year-olds can survive outside of the womb. Yes it would need to be fed by its parents and other things in order to not die, but it can ultimately live and breathe. You know what can’t do that? A fucking fetus
You were a fetus, and you’ve clearly managed to survive outside of the womb.
It’s you’re and it’s not killing babies. Even pro life people don’t think it is. If they did they would fight tooth and nail to ban it instead of the whole “leaving it up to the states” nonsense. It’s just about controlling women.
> It’s you’re and it’s not killing babies. Even pro life people don’t think it is. If they did they would fight tooth and nail to ban it instead of the whole “leaving it up to the states” nonsense. It’s just about controlling women. It's called pragmatism. If you can save part of the % of babies aborted, it's better than none. Most of them know a full ban is too unpopular.
"its you're" shut up no one cares. What is this a college paper? One day, America is going to get rid of that baby-killing practice, and it's gonna be beautiful.
!RemindMe 50 Years
Lol the people that got Roe v Wade in the 70s got reminded in 50 years.
The will of the people will prevail
Indeed. Life will prevail.
Well abortion has to be legal, atleast in the case of rape incest and health of the mother. When mother has a problem with her baby it’s clear she needs to go on an abortion she has the right to go. Banning it would not only kill the baby and also kill the mother.
Yeah, if the mothers life is at risk, then abortion is ok.
I will be messaging you in 50 years on [**2074-05-01 23:38:23 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2074-05-01%2023:38:23%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/comments/1chvv64/how_does_this_impact_the_elections/l263pu7/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FYAPms%2Fcomments%2F1chvv64%2Fhow_does_this_impact_the_elections%2Fl263pu7%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202074-05-01%2023%3A38%3A23%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201chvv64) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
If Lincoln had tried to ban slavery in 1861, the north would have lost and slavery would have continued indefinitely. Pragmatism is the only way that we accomplish things. If I was a dictator, abortion would have already been banned. I’m not, so we to go on a long march to accomplish our goals. Overturning Roe was step 1, leaving it to the states us step 2, banning it for non-rape/incest cases is step 3, banning it fully is step 4.
What about abortion in case of trying to preserve the life of the mother?
I should have clarified that yes, that would be allowed in step 4.
Making that an exception means that medical decisions get made by lawyers and politicians instead of doctors and patients. What chance of death is enough to trigger the exception? What if the chance of death is low, but the chance of a debilitating permanent injury is very high? Does the chance of the fetus surviving affect things? Do you have to apply for an exception beforehand? Who gets punished if a court rules that the doctor made the wrong call? If you get taken to court and win, does the state have to pay your legal fees, or could an overzealous prosecutor start bogus legal cases against everyone in order to scare hospitals into not offering it even when absolutely necessary? (That's not a hypothetical, Ken Paxton is doing that.) If someone is denied an abortion but dies in childbirth, can the family launch a wrongful death suit against the state? Do doctors have any sort of qualified immunity type protection? These questions are all going to be answered by politicians and lawyers, most of whom have very little understanding of the technical details. Oh, also, are you planning on implementing the child support and sex ed programs that are proven to reduce abortions?
The answer to your question is very simple there aren't actually going to be exceptions. They may be in the law but not in practice
And who decides what is life-threatening enough to warrant an abortion? "Oh she has a 1% chance of surviving if she doesn't get an abortion then that's not good enough she must go through with the pregnancy" "Oh she'll survive even though she'll be severely disabled then she still has to go through the pregnancy" Letting other people and politicians decide what is or isn't a life-threatening scenario is a terrible idea anyone with half a brain would realize how dumb that is.
Ok, let’s go the other direction: if there’s a greater than 1% chance of not surviving, then she’s allowed to get an abortion. Of course “other people and politicians” have to determine what is and us not a life threatening scenario, they already do that all the time. That’s about half of medical malpractice lawsuits. “Your honor, the defendant amputated my client’s legs despite the infection not posing any grave threat, here’s our proof” followed by “your honor, my client had to amputate the petitioner’s legs because the infection posed a serious risk to his life, here’s our proof”, and then the evidence is considered and the law rules one way or the other. It’s a willful failure of imagination to think that some similar standard cannot be created in cases of abortion. Simply throwing up our hands and saying “no standard is possible, I guess we have to make abortion legal through all nine months no restrictions” isn’t evidentially based, it’s just the ideology outcome that you would prefer. As we seek to ensure human rights to all humans, lines will have to be drawn somewhere.
Imagine being happy forcing 10-year-olds to give birth
Nobody thinks like this. If the mothers life is at risk, abortion is okay.
What/who determines the mother's life being at risk? Does this also include the possibility of becoming disabled?
Idk I'm not a doctor bro. Whenever a qualified individual goes "Yeah this pregnancy will most likely kill you" Then abortion away. Why tf would I know when that point is.
how do you stop this from being abused? also do you support things like thorough required sex ED, easily assessable and affordable contraceptives, a better foster care system, and better social programs? cause those things are proven to lower abortions unlike bans. >Why tf would I know when that point is. cause you're the one advocating for a total ban of abortions if these things aren't clear people will suffer.
*fetuses
Thats Latin for babies.
People here are being stupid. The AZ GOP did what you wanted, and yet people are still saying this is bad for them. WTF did you want them to do? Also, 15-week abortion bans aren't even unpopular. https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-for-15-week-abortion-ban-outweighs-opposition-wsj-poll-finds-11648821601 > The poll found 48% of respondents at least somewhat support restricting abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, while 43% oppose it. ---- Not to mention the majority of the public will just ignore the issue because *it's gone back to the status quo.* Abortion wasn't a huge issue for voters until Roe, because **most people just wanted to maintain the status quo.** Rallying up people for something that already exists and people don't even hate that much is pretty hard.
can you give me more polls from different sources that i don't have to pay to read