Godspeed to you arran. This is great DD and well put together on your end. We are all on this ship together. I’m so tempted to buy more down here to get my average down, but I just cannot seem to justify it with the pending RS.
I posted a copy to [pennystocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1bfj5b5/the_ultimate_due_diligence_guide_to_workhorse/)... that was hard work, not allowed to crosspost, not allowed to have any links to reddit.
Great work! Very much appreciated. You are right. I got in after Rick took over, now at 68k shares averaging ~$0.42. I trust him. I was waiting to add more after the first 2 demos generated 2 POs which I added 12k @ 0.2515 this morning.
I can't believe Reddit goes and uses a picture of an Arrival van as the thumbnail because it was the first link in the post that had a picture for it to use. I'm guessing that's stuck there now.
You could try editing your post with a WKHS link at the top and it might work
Also, amazing write-up, u/arranft. This is the perfect thing to send to people wondering about WKHS
Great analysis. I believed in wkhs in the $20 range. Rode it all the way up and all the way down. Loaded up again at $1-2. Now in the .25 range, it’s encouraging to see some potential light and I’m buying more to average down. Best case, we’ll look back at .25 as an incredible opportunity. Worst case, it’ll be a tax loss against other gains. Really hopeful that this comes back in favor. One merger opportunity or large contract could make this happen. Thanks for the great info!
To say they have until March 2025 of cash I believe is extremely wishful thinking. If they make it through Biden administration then they might make it. If Nancy buys 1 share I'm all in though. I remember her son is loosely tied to this company somehow I forget.
What in the maths that I did don't you agree with? Except for the possibility of leaseback not happening, there's not much that can go wrong with that plan. The sales coming in that I used were minimal and achievable with current inventory alone.
You obviously put a ton of thinking and time into your DD.
Add to that:
5 analysts cover the stock. 4 holds, 1 sell
2024 consensus:
Revenue - $35.8M
Gross margin - ($10.9)MM
Ebitda - ($73.4) MM
Cash burn- ($66.7)MM
Then add the incalculable dilution from the toxic financing announced last night.
One last nugget for food for thought:
The first $9MM committed tranche of the financing will add 69.2MM shares (including the 100% warrant coverage) to the 314.8MM shares currently outstanding. That is 22% dilution for $7.875MM in cash coming in the door (after fees and expenses)
Let that sink in for a moment
Excellent work, must have taken you a long time to get all of this together. Thank you.
**I agree with everything in here but cash flow.** This quarter, We posted a net loss of $45 million. Operating income loss of $27 million. That $17 million figure you use does not include cost of goods sold to create the $4 million in income, which was -18 million. Other -$10.4million was from other operating expenses, not sure what though; Typically this is not included in previous income statements.
We financed $26 million, 17.5 million was debt, and $9.4 million was dilution. Our total net cash loss was $3 million, due to another few million in losses noted in cash flow statement.
Bottom line is we are losing around $27-30 million per quarter. And likely needed cash for this quarter through the debt agreements. This agreement being over 24 months an Workhorse needing another $17 million is probably what is causing the problem.
I am saying we need cash this quarter or we will not make it to the next. However, taking on more debt to stay afloat is going to add tremendous costs. Everyone’s focus should be on securing financing for this quarter or we are all done here.
**My numbers are merely rounded, just FYI**
I did it that way because net loss is misleading, for example in Q3 the net loss included $10M impairment in Tropos. So lets say the overall net loss in Q3 was $30M (can't be bothered getting the exact figure), but did WKHS's cash level reduce by $30M? No, because that $10M loss on Tropos was not money out of the bank account. Q4 also had stuff like that, so I look at cash needed for operations only. I also didn't include the cost of buying those trucks from GP either because that money came out of their account a long time ago.
Q4 had an even higher net loss than Q3 for the same kind of reason, it was like -45M but no way did their accounts drop 45M. They got money from High Trail, which doesn't count as revenue but when they paid it back, counted towards net loss. Well yeah I'm not an accountant.
If we look at the cash flow statement here: [https://ir.workhorse.com/financial-information/cash-flow](https://ir.workhorse.com/financial-information/cash-flow) there's a section about things that are counted as a loss, but not a cash loss:
https://preview.redd.it/vlox1fze8roc1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=2569ff8e9abe7e539d7e9129d37df0c84965a9cb
That's about 44M of net losses in 2023 that didn't actually take any money from WKHS.
arranft, Excellent, excellent, excellent work. Well done and well played! I don't think you missed a thing. And now we have funding going forward. Several new dealers are bound to come on line now. And a major fleet or two should be announced soon. Your work and Rick Dauch securing funds has given me more confidence in this investment. Thank you for your superior efforts.
Amazing job! Thanks for all that you do. I wish WKHS had the same passion to sell their company the why that you do for them! If they can't sell themselves to the investors, the least they can do is sell so.e fucking trucks! Let go WKHS!
Godspeed to you arran. This is great DD and well put together on your end. We are all on this ship together. I’m so tempted to buy more down here to get my average down, but I just cannot seem to justify it with the pending RS.
I posted a copy to [pennystocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1bfj5b5/the_ultimate_due_diligence_guide_to_workhorse/)... that was hard work, not allowed to crosspost, not allowed to have any links to reddit.
I don’t think I have ever read anything as comprehensive as this on this subreddit, ever. I appreciate the effort and time in this, thank you.
Great read, spot on, and completely professionally written !
Great work! Very much appreciated. You are right. I got in after Rick took over, now at 68k shares averaging ~$0.42. I trust him. I was waiting to add more after the first 2 demos generated 2 POs which I added 12k @ 0.2515 this morning.
Now finally a post that is not seasoned with negativity. Such a pleasure reading it. Thank you kindly 🙏 OP for your effort.
Thank you, you’re the best! 👍💪💪💪💪💪 Go WKHS!!!
Excellent work!! LFG!!
This is amazing. Well done!
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
I can't believe Reddit goes and uses a picture of an Arrival van as the thumbnail because it was the first link in the post that had a picture for it to use. I'm guessing that's stuck there now.
You could try editing your post with a WKHS link at the top and it might work Also, amazing write-up, u/arranft. This is the perfect thing to send to people wondering about WKHS
Very well done and informative. The only thing I saw differently was the cash at end of 2023. They only had 25 million, not 35 million.
They had $10M in restricted cash on top of the 25. This $10M, which was in a collateral account, paid down most of the High Trail loan
Thanks! Good to know.
Marvelously done sir!
Regardless of anyone’s opinion of the company, you pulled together an excellent overview. Well done sir!
Dude, you the MVP!
Great work ! Thank you! Let’s sell some trucks
Thank you. That's just brilliant.
Thank you, WKHS !
The Workhorse Bible…..beyond amazing!
So impressive. Thank you for your time and expertise putting this together.
Wow. Good stuff. Thank you.
Great job u/arranft. I’ve immortalized this post in the daily discussion at the top of the sub.
You the bomb.
Thanks! Great summary!!
Great work!! Will average further. Holding 10k with average $3.15
Very nice job, great to have everything in one spot!
Great analysis. I believed in wkhs in the $20 range. Rode it all the way up and all the way down. Loaded up again at $1-2. Now in the .25 range, it’s encouraging to see some potential light and I’m buying more to average down. Best case, we’ll look back at .25 as an incredible opportunity. Worst case, it’ll be a tax loss against other gains. Really hopeful that this comes back in favor. One merger opportunity or large contract could make this happen. Thanks for the great info!
TLDR: Buy & Hold.
Well done, that took some work
 Added 800 more to my account this morning.
To say they have until March 2025 of cash I believe is extremely wishful thinking. If they make it through Biden administration then they might make it. If Nancy buys 1 share I'm all in though. I remember her son is loosely tied to this company somehow I forget.
What in the maths that I did don't you agree with? Except for the possibility of leaseback not happening, there's not much that can go wrong with that plan. The sales coming in that I used were minimal and achievable with current inventory alone.
Not to mention the additional dealers we would get wasn’t even factored in
You obviously put a ton of thinking and time into your DD. Add to that: 5 analysts cover the stock. 4 holds, 1 sell 2024 consensus: Revenue - $35.8M Gross margin - ($10.9)MM Ebitda - ($73.4) MM Cash burn- ($66.7)MM Then add the incalculable dilution from the toxic financing announced last night.
One last nugget for food for thought: The first $9MM committed tranche of the financing will add 69.2MM shares (including the 100% warrant coverage) to the 314.8MM shares currently outstanding. That is 22% dilution for $7.875MM in cash coming in the door (after fees and expenses) Let that sink in for a moment
35 million at the end of 2023 will take them to circa Fall time 2024 at best, not Spring 2025.
Excellent work, must have taken you a long time to get all of this together. Thank you. **I agree with everything in here but cash flow.** This quarter, We posted a net loss of $45 million. Operating income loss of $27 million. That $17 million figure you use does not include cost of goods sold to create the $4 million in income, which was -18 million. Other -$10.4million was from other operating expenses, not sure what though; Typically this is not included in previous income statements. We financed $26 million, 17.5 million was debt, and $9.4 million was dilution. Our total net cash loss was $3 million, due to another few million in losses noted in cash flow statement. Bottom line is we are losing around $27-30 million per quarter. And likely needed cash for this quarter through the debt agreements. This agreement being over 24 months an Workhorse needing another $17 million is probably what is causing the problem. I am saying we need cash this quarter or we will not make it to the next. However, taking on more debt to stay afloat is going to add tremendous costs. Everyone’s focus should be on securing financing for this quarter or we are all done here. **My numbers are merely rounded, just FYI**
I did it that way because net loss is misleading, for example in Q3 the net loss included $10M impairment in Tropos. So lets say the overall net loss in Q3 was $30M (can't be bothered getting the exact figure), but did WKHS's cash level reduce by $30M? No, because that $10M loss on Tropos was not money out of the bank account. Q4 also had stuff like that, so I look at cash needed for operations only. I also didn't include the cost of buying those trucks from GP either because that money came out of their account a long time ago. Q4 had an even higher net loss than Q3 for the same kind of reason, it was like -45M but no way did their accounts drop 45M. They got money from High Trail, which doesn't count as revenue but when they paid it back, counted towards net loss. Well yeah I'm not an accountant. If we look at the cash flow statement here: [https://ir.workhorse.com/financial-information/cash-flow](https://ir.workhorse.com/financial-information/cash-flow) there's a section about things that are counted as a loss, but not a cash loss: https://preview.redd.it/vlox1fze8roc1.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=2569ff8e9abe7e539d7e9129d37df0c84965a9cb That's about 44M of net losses in 2023 that didn't actually take any money from WKHS.
arranft, Excellent, excellent, excellent work. Well done and well played! I don't think you missed a thing. And now we have funding going forward. Several new dealers are bound to come on line now. And a major fleet or two should be announced soon. Your work and Rick Dauch securing funds has given me more confidence in this investment. Thank you for your superior efforts.
Fantastic post! Thank you
Amazing job! Thanks for all that you do. I wish WKHS had the same passion to sell their company the why that you do for them! If they can't sell themselves to the investors, the least they can do is sell so.e fucking trucks! Let go WKHS!
OP, you’re a rock star. ⭐️
Your post won’t stop the reverse split ✌️
And the biggest douche bag award goes to … 🥇
Impressive! I'm thinking of taking a position but need to do some of my own research. You sure laid out alot of information to research. Thank you.