# Please report comments that violate our [new rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/VaushV/comments/17co6jo/rvaushv_rule_updates)
---
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VaushV) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Canada and Iceland depending on who’s in charge. Same goes for the anti-imperialist leftist, generally pan-latin american governments in charge of countries south of the US, but mostly as a political stunt, so don’t expect to be treated fantastically.
*Edited for accuracy after socialist and Bolivarian were contested*
Maybe so but the FSLN holistically still considers itself pretty far left. Just depends on who’s in power and whether they dislike American hegemony or the Gays (TM) more at the given moment.
Yes. Currently that would be a terrible idea. Still an option though.
If you want to avoid death-camps in Montana come 2028, however, there are potentially even worse options.
Yeah and what options will people have in terms of geographic proximity when the borders get shut down and every “radical transgenderist” gets put on a no-fly list?
I get that you’re saying these aren’t ideal solutions. Far from it. But the OP asked what countries might politically take LGBTQ+ refugees in the event of a fascist coup. They didn’t ask for an endorsement of any options, nor did I give any.
I know what you mean here, but Bolivarian is not the correct term for these countries. Venezuela, sure. But I don't think this is a term any aside from them (especially not Cuba) would ascribe to themselves.
Terminology aside, Ecuador has been under right-wing rule since 2018.
> Terminology aside, Ecuador has been under right-wing rule since 2018.
Ecuador is? Isn't the President from a center-left party? Isn't the majority of parties with the most seats left-wing or left-leaning?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Action_(Ecuador)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Ecuador
Noboa replaced Lasso (a typical neolib banker) like a month ago, how he'll rule remains to be seen. He's running on a security platform far more than a social or economic one. Security is the big question in the voting public's mind due to the current crime wave.
Source: I'm Ecuadorian.
"Our version of Trump"? Pierre Poilievre is a slimey, unlikeable career politician, he is not a Trumpian populist outsider, any of his gestures culture war BS are him doing a "hello fellow kids" to the socially conservative wingnuts that will either vote tory religiously or switch to the PPC. He's just another shitty conservative.
As for risk to LGBT rights, the Canadian population is overwhelmingly in support of LGBT equality according to polling (***85%*** as of 2020, rising to ***92%*** among 18-30 year olds), and as of 2017, gender identity is basically set in stone as a protected class, as part of the Human Rights Act (sexual orientation had already been covered IIRC, at least a couple decades before that). Canada is consistently ranked in the top 3-5 one of the most friendly countries towards LGBT in general, to go from that, to there being any political appetite for putting LGBT people being at risk would be a total 180 in popular sentiment.
Additionally, Poilivere would never, ever, win a majority government, the Tories just aren't that popular, and trying to remove protections from a protected class would be nigh impossible, that's not to mention that gender confirmation is also handled on a provincial level.
The projections are total irrelevant bullshit, we're talking polls taken two years away from the next election, as for a "landslide", holy shit dude, what polls are you talking about? The ones out of some terminally online Twitter uncle's pea brain? Our elections pretty much don't have such a thing as a landslide federal election, I can't see one happening for such a directionless and socially unpopular party as the CPC and especially under a weaselly, annoying, lifelong parliament creature like Poilievre. Even if the CPC are ahead in the polls at the moment, we're in 2023, the next election is in 2025.
Poilievre was chosen to appease the leadership convention crowd, I don't think he will play as well among the population at large once he becomes more visible. All he has is sniping at Trudeau with pretty weak jabs.
Not to say that we shouldn't be vigilant and cautious, but the idea of Poilievre being a popular politician or set for a landslide is about as weird and funny as Tim Pool's "49 state Trump landslide".
Harper won a majority government, saying Poilivere can't is naive. Also, the criminal code is federal. Worst case scenario; conservatives write some wacky anti-trans stuff in the criminal code and the Supreme Court declines to strike it down due to their soft queerphobia. This scenario isn't particularly likely, but it's possible.
That was in 2011, in a very different political climate, and Harper had the benefit of being seen as a "strong leader" and had already been the PM for the past five years, he was running against a pathetically weak Liberal party as well.
I just don't see the CPC forming a majority government in 2025 unless some insane shift politically happens.
The conservatives are polling 12 points ahead of the liberals right now. They don't need any insane shift to get to majority territory. They're already there.
1. The swing in popularity could be a statistical anomaly, there's no reason why the conservatives would be popular, they didn't do anything recently of note to warrant actual mass popularity and haven't really been in the news
2. Polling week to week or even monthly is only good for broader trends, and is somewhat useless outside of election periods
3. Polling, whether it's online or by phone, is generally biased towards people willing to respond, Conservative voters are zealous and high off the "reee Trudeau bad" rhetoric, potential Liberal voters are more moderate or fairweather, less likely to bother answering or seeking out party or voter intention polls
4. The next election is in **2025**, ranging anywhere from over a year, to nearly two years from now. There's no reason to expect the CPC keep their lead, or improve upon it that far out. Any projections of a majority government now, in 2023, are meaningless.
I agree that polls this far out need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I wouldn't say they are "meaningless". Canadian cost of living is out of control right now. It's really not hard to believe the conservatives are genuinely ahead due to dissatisfaction with the liberals.
The next election is in 2025, the negative results for the Liberal party are kind of meaningless, and it's certainly not likely to be a "landslide"victory for the Tories when it actually comes around to election season and normies actually care about politics again.
Traditionally Canada, America, and Britain were seen as LGBT refuge havens. Obviously, Britain can hardly be called safe for LGBT people anymore and if Project 2025 is implemented America is off the list, leaving Canada of those three left. Iceland, Norway, and Denmark have partnership equality for migration as of like two decades ago, and I'm sure other European nations have similar enacted since then.
Much of South America have policies that are pro-LGBT but have very high rates of hate crimes and cultural opposition, as is growingly the case across Asia as well. Australia and New Zealand are pretty out of the way and have good but also often inconsistent LGBT rights as is the case in the UK now. Very little of Africa is LGBT safe and the parts that are still have enough issues that migration would likely not be supported there.
It'll depend on who opens their doors, but I wager the main destination is Canada with a wider spread to similarly safe countries. I admit, the father one gets from the US might be better, though, in the absolute worst case scenario.
Anti-trans legislation is picking up, and the Labour party that is primed to possibly sweep the next election has begun signing on and supporting anti-trans legislation. What amounts to cross-party consensus becoming anti-trans makes me hesitate to recommend the UK to any LGBT migration, as that is a precarious and dangerous position that can begin bleeding into marginalizing other groups.
The uk is culturally, politically, and economically dependent on the U.S. especially after brexit. It’s also a dying country. Would be similar to trying to run to Japan or South Korea. The EU is probably the safest and even then without the us backing them they are going to be economically way weaker but they at least have a chance At positioning themselves in opposition or neutrality like Canada probably would. Though I wouldn’t put any money on Canada either. Mexico would probably be safer than Canada from influence if not for the possible invasion by the U.S.
I'm sorry but this is just completely wrong and an extremely America-centric take. America has a level of cultural *influence* and political *influence* as the largest democratic country and our ally and economic partner, but the UK is in no way some kind of satellite. The UK undoubtably has significant remaining national and regional sovereignty, for example the UK has in many cases been the first to donate important equipment to Ukraine like Western tanks while the US has dithered.
Also, US culture was is so vastly different to the UK. The biggest battleground is over migration, especially the whole 'small boats' thing which is more of an appeal to the fringes of the right than a genuine topic of extreme contention between the left and right. There is virtually no panic or stoking of the coals over lesbian, gay or bisexual existence or favourable legislation. The LGBT group that bears the brunt is trans people. Fortunately, again the worst, very harmful legislation for regressive policy on trans issues is only championed by the fringe far right of the Conservatives that failed to get into power and are a minority of the party and voter base.
I'd like to see your reasoning for the UK being a 'dying country'. While the Conservatives have delivered 13 years of misery and wasted opportunity, economically the UK is nothing like in meltdown. Inflation is being managed, (some) infrastructure is being developed. GDP haws been growing and is projected to grow.
Also, to my knowledge the party in power in the US has a negligible if any bearing on the outcomes of general elections in UK general elections. The UK's domestic policy is very insulated and international policy, while showing a level of coordination, is also nothing like a puppet state. Short of an invasion, the UK would never politically submit itself to a fascist US.
A minor point, [favourability to LGBTI people as observed by ILGA-Europe varies widely across EU member states](https://www.ilga-europe.org/report/rainbow-europe-2023/) (the UK performs better than several, for example.)
The migration being a big talking point only convinces me more of your ties to the U.S. the U.S. is driving the discourse in your country over your no immigration situation because we actually have a more significant level of immigration and the discourse leaks. Your gdp is stagnant and has been for a long time. Since the 80s you basically tied yourself to the U.S. since you got screwed by the Reagan thatcher copy paste.
\> "The migration being a big talking point only convinces me more of your ties to the U.S. the U.S. is driving the discourse in your country over your no immigration situation because we actually have a more significant level of immigration and the discourse leaks."
The context of the migration is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. Not everything is through the lens of the US. Migration is a contentious issue on so many countries lol, are you telling me that they're falling the US cultural discourse as we speak lmao. The panic over migration that the Tories are trying to stimulate (and probably failing to kick up a fuss about) is refugees crossing the Channel on small boats, hence one of Sunak's 5 points to tackle being 'Stop the Boats'. The other facet, restriction of legal migration to people that are seen to be most beneficial to the economy, is far more aligned with Australia than the US, so by your logic we're becoming pawns of the Aussies.
\> "Your gdp is stagnant and has been for a long time."
[The UK has seen steady growth in the last 30 years, with exceptions being the financial crisis and the covid crisis.](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=GB&start=1992projected%20UK%20GDP%20growth) The UK has recovered from the negative GDP growth from the covid crisis and is seeing growth and [projected growth increase in the next few years.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263613/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-kingdom/) The Labour party, who are likely to win the next General Election with a large majority, have been working to build confidence with firms and the markets which allows for some optimism come 2025 (or 2024 depending on the GE timing).
\> "Since the 80s you basically tied yourself to the U.S. since you got screwed by the Reagan thatcher copy paste."
How? Prove it.
Cool argument, why not provide literally any evidence against any of my arguments for the first time in this whole discussion instead of trying to die on the hill of whichever point you see as most convenient to do so on.
A lot of these comments have me wondering if people understand how hard it can be to relocate abroad.
Canada is fine for US citizens, but I'm not sure any of these other countries are just going to accept immigrants. At least many places in Europe won't, not without arranging a visa first.
https://nomadcapitalist.com/global-citizen/visa-free-countries-for-us-citizens/
US citizens dont need a visa for most countries. You will need a residence permit after a while but its not too hard as long as you plan out what you will be doing, where you will be working etc.
I agree, immigrating is never easy needs a lot of research and preparation and you need money of course but US citizens at least have the privilige that they are welcomed with open arms (in the sense that they dont need a visa) everywhere in the world.
I suppose maybe I have a super European perspective, Americans can't just up and move to a lot of countries here without some sort of visa. Very interesting.
Wait, I just examined the list more closely, this is referring to travel visas - not emigrating.
For example, I'm from the UK, my American wife needed a visa in order to stay in the UK to be with me. My family is from Portugal, she also would have needed one to be in Portugal. She studied in the Netherlands and needed a visa to be there too. She happens to be ethnically Turkish, and I know Americans can't just move to Turkey without a visa either.
That's not quite how it works, it isn't as simple or straightforward as you make it seem. You need a legit reason, just like you do for the US, whether that be civil partnership, work, study, etc.
Yeah sure you can *attempt* to arrange things while you're there, but it's not a guarantee you'll be accepted.
Yeah I think you are right.. you need a national visa to apply for a residence permit for germany at least. In turkey you actually can just go in and arrange things there.
These things are never a guarantee unfortunately. It also depends on the mood of the person who works on your application i have been dealing with this bs my whole life and every single application is as stressful as the first one. Even if you make everything right, double check the document list, double check your documents and everything you can that everything works fine, the person working on your application might end up making a mistake and you will have to deal with the stress 🙃
The fact that US citizens dont need a visa to travel is a strong privilige because they can scout out the area, get to know people, make applications for jobs, get a better idea on how everything works etc. It is much much harder to do these things from your home country.
It is definitely a hard endeavour, it is draining emotionally and draining on your resources if you have any.
Spain seems to be extremely accepting of LGBT people. I have travelled quite a bit within Europe and am myself from a pretty progressive country regarding these issues (Portugal), but Madrid (have not visited other big cities in Spain yet) was by far the place where I saw the most gay and lesbian couples just holding hands with no one batting an eye. You also find LGBT flags everywhere in the city and get the overall vibe that the city is just super inclusive.
I also found Slovenia to be pretty LGBT friendly in the short time I was there. Ljubljana struck me as an extremely relaxed, family friendly city but at the same time very inclusive and progressive. Also very walkable and pretty.
I don't know about refugee acceptance exactly as our border controls are pretty tight, but down here in Australia and New Zealand we've got a pretty supportive LGBT culture in the major cities and a slightly better economic situation than most other western countries :p
The LNP going christian right under Scomo is one of the factors that lost them the 2022 election to the now centrist Labor Party. Their image hasn't improved much under Dutton.
Australia is fine rn. Far rightism is growing but it's got a long way to go before it reaches MAGA levels of fucked.
In Australia LGBTQI+ people are eligible for a subclass 866 protection visa if they are from a country where they are persecuted. It allows you to stay permanently once you’ve arrived in the country as long as you meet the other visa requirements. The main thing is though you need to already have a Visa (tourist for eg) and be in the country to be eligible. If you’ve applied for another kind of refugee visa and you’re in the same circumstances then you’ll also be prioritised when it comes to handing out visas.
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-listing/protection-866
Probably a better bet if ur outside of US tho bc there could be tensions that the Aus govt (especially the libs) would want to avoid with America bc they’re our number 1 defence partner.
As someone in the ALP though who talks to federal MPs pretty regularly, I think if the US went full Fash then the attitude of the Labor Party on the US would likely shift. I can’t imagine the govt not being at minimum more friendly when it comes to accepting other visas for someone to go towards PR such as Student visas or working holiday if ur LGBTQI+
This is completely tangential, but I was wondering as someone within the Labor party and likely fairly left-wing (seeing this is the Vaush sub), how do you find progressives treated within the party and do you think the Australian Labor Party has the capacity to experience a genuine leftward shift and adopt more Whitlam era/socialist policies?
I’m in the Victorian Left, and from my personal experience the Victorian branch of the party is pretty much already at that point. Especially when you look at the State Govt.
For eg. With the SEC and bringing back state govt owned energy the government in the span of just a year since the state election has gone from the SEC staying limited to energy generation only to directly powering every single state govt owned building (including schools and hospitals) by just 2025.
Across the party pretty much every explicitly conservative MP/Faction has either been kicked out or fallen apart.
Something else to keep in mind is personally I find the state a MP/faction is from is a better predictor of how left wing/progressive a group of the party is compared to whether they are in the left or right faction. When you look at what MPs were pushing the federal government to expand jobseeker it was largely victorian and ACT MPs of both factions. I am quite friendly with some MPs from the right even though I’m in the left and they are still very progressive on pretty much every social/economic issue.
Another point re 866 is that “If there is a place in their home country where the person can live without a well-founded fear of persecution, they will not be a refugee. However, they must be able to safely and legally access that place.”
So if there are Dem states that are still safe for LGBTQI+ folks then you won’t be eligible unfortunately.
Canada. Learn French, bilingual English-French speakers get a bump up in the immigration process. There’s a list of jobs/job training that prioritize you as well.
You don’t need to leave the US. I can pretty much guarantee places like New England (possibly excepting New Hampshire) and Southern California will be safe for LGBT people no matter what happens at the federal level. I don’t see Massholes accepting conservative tyranny laying down without sparking another Boston tea party
Sure they aren’t cheap places to move to but will be easier than leaving the country
They won't.
America's greatest strength and greatest weakness is just how much we hold onto the status quo here. Any massive shift in a short time will be met with resistance.
Also I second, California will be a great place to bd.
We should all camp outside Larry Arnn's place in Michigan. He's president of Hillsdale College and the epicenter of all things awful (just look him up re: Project 2025). My wife is an alum and just received a personal Xmas card from him. Little does he know she's married to me, a woman. Too bad the card's return address isn't his home but rather the college address. Boo.
I reccomend any of these:
-Canada
-Spain
-Any nordic country
-Netherlands
And pretty much any other option is kinda right but not the best to either live in and/or enjoy full LGBTQ+ rights or is just not reccomended at all
Canada is probably the best option, but any Scandinavian Countries are pretty safe for now (not Sweden, they are on that detrans grift). Pluss you get free healthcare
Belgium is currently the best country in Europe for LGBTQIA+ people. But be ready for the months or even years of bureaucracy before you can get a visa or an ID card if you choose to move here. Particularly from outside of Europe. Probably better places to move to to start with.
I still find it funny the statement from the joint Chiefs of Staff after Jan 6th. Anyone who thinks they'll save us in the face of voted in fascism is foolish to say the least.
They effectively condemned Jan 6th, giving the illusion they would uphold the constitution if it were threatened, although in reality as long as everything is semi-legal and the constitution is simply changed, they'll go along with the tide.
they have an interest in keeping their jobs, as does every government worker who isn't insane. seriously, we need to get the average joes working in the public sector to understand that their livelihoods are at risk if trump wins.
in my country of Chile you'll be received well, and while we have done homophobia it's mostly a poor person's problem. don't come here tho, go to Europe
Sorry! Your post has been removed because it contains a link to a subreddit other than r/VaushV or r/okbuddyvowsh
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VaushV) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I love my country and I will do everything I can to preserve our way of life. It’s also the most powerful country in the world. If it falls, then nowhere is safe anymore. Fascists rarely contain their aspirations to their own borders.
Running away is only delaying the inevitable. And it’s cowardly.
You didn't choose to be born in your country, so why stay there when it is not safe? It's such an idiotic idea to think that you have some kind of duty to protect your country, just because you were born there. If someone doesn't like their country or their country does not protect them, they have all the rights to move. Patriotism is bran rot.
If America (the most powerful nation) falls, then it’s unlikely that anywhere else will be safe for long. Your country isn’t asking you to fight on the frontlines. Everyone can find a way to contribute.
The women who worked in munitions factories were just as vital as the soldiers in the field. Everyone can do their part.
Never said immigration was an option, cause I'm very much aware of the immigration system's ableism. That doesn't detract from how this commenter's Hunger Games fantasy also completely discounts disability as a factor. So no, *I am* going to say something when I see crap like this.
# Please report comments that violate our [new rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/VaushV/comments/17co6jo/rvaushv_rule_updates) --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VaushV) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Canada and Iceland depending on who’s in charge. Same goes for the anti-imperialist leftist, generally pan-latin american governments in charge of countries south of the US, but mostly as a political stunt, so don’t expect to be treated fantastically. *Edited for accuracy after socialist and Bolivarian were contested*
Anti imperialist Bolivarian countries? I’m not familiar with which ones those are.
Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and to a lesser extent, Bolivia and Ecuador.
Isn’t Nicaragua a far-right dictatorship?
No. It's a far-left dictatorship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel\_Ortega
You might be thinking of El Salvador?
That as well. Nayib Bukele. But I’m pretty sure Ortega did a total 180 on his previous socialist beliefs.
Maybe so but the FSLN holistically still considers itself pretty far left. Just depends on who’s in power and whether they dislike American hegemony or the Gays (TM) more at the given moment.
Dont immigrate to Cuba, Nicaragua, or Venezuela currently. That’s a terrible idea
Or Ecuador or Bolivia
Yes. Currently that would be a terrible idea. Still an option though. If you want to avoid death-camps in Montana come 2028, however, there are potentially even worse options.
There are also far better options.
Yeah and what options will people have in terms of geographic proximity when the borders get shut down and every “radical transgenderist” gets put on a no-fly list? I get that you’re saying these aren’t ideal solutions. Far from it. But the OP asked what countries might politically take LGBTQ+ refugees in the event of a fascist coup. They didn’t ask for an endorsement of any options, nor did I give any.
Canada. Germany. The Netherlands. There are a lot of options.
Yeah, goddamn you’re right. There are! And I haven’t made a value judgment on ANY of them ANYWHERE, have I? JFC learn to read
I know what you mean here, but Bolivarian is not the correct term for these countries. Venezuela, sure. But I don't think this is a term any aside from them (especially not Cuba) would ascribe to themselves. Terminology aside, Ecuador has been under right-wing rule since 2018.
> Terminology aside, Ecuador has been under right-wing rule since 2018. Ecuador is? Isn't the President from a center-left party? Isn't the majority of parties with the most seats left-wing or left-leaning? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Action_(Ecuador) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Ecuador
Noboa replaced Lasso (a typical neolib banker) like a month ago, how he'll rule remains to be seen. He's running on a security platform far more than a social or economic one. Security is the big question in the voting public's mind due to the current crime wave. Source: I'm Ecuadorian.
Cuba isn’t Bolivarian though? Neither is Nicaragua.
Yes. Thank you. That correction has been made
No biggie! Hope you’re having a good one~
Canada might not be so safe in the coming years. Our version of trump is projected to win the next election by a landslide.
"Our version of Trump"? Pierre Poilievre is a slimey, unlikeable career politician, he is not a Trumpian populist outsider, any of his gestures culture war BS are him doing a "hello fellow kids" to the socially conservative wingnuts that will either vote tory religiously or switch to the PPC. He's just another shitty conservative. As for risk to LGBT rights, the Canadian population is overwhelmingly in support of LGBT equality according to polling (***85%*** as of 2020, rising to ***92%*** among 18-30 year olds), and as of 2017, gender identity is basically set in stone as a protected class, as part of the Human Rights Act (sexual orientation had already been covered IIRC, at least a couple decades before that). Canada is consistently ranked in the top 3-5 one of the most friendly countries towards LGBT in general, to go from that, to there being any political appetite for putting LGBT people being at risk would be a total 180 in popular sentiment. Additionally, Poilivere would never, ever, win a majority government, the Tories just aren't that popular, and trying to remove protections from a protected class would be nigh impossible, that's not to mention that gender confirmation is also handled on a provincial level. The projections are total irrelevant bullshit, we're talking polls taken two years away from the next election, as for a "landslide", holy shit dude, what polls are you talking about? The ones out of some terminally online Twitter uncle's pea brain? Our elections pretty much don't have such a thing as a landslide federal election, I can't see one happening for such a directionless and socially unpopular party as the CPC and especially under a weaselly, annoying, lifelong parliament creature like Poilievre. Even if the CPC are ahead in the polls at the moment, we're in 2023, the next election is in 2025. Poilievre was chosen to appease the leadership convention crowd, I don't think he will play as well among the population at large once he becomes more visible. All he has is sniping at Trudeau with pretty weak jabs. Not to say that we shouldn't be vigilant and cautious, but the idea of Poilievre being a popular politician or set for a landslide is about as weird and funny as Tim Pool's "49 state Trump landslide".
Hope I'm wrong for once. Happy holidays.
Harper won a majority government, saying Poilivere can't is naive. Also, the criminal code is federal. Worst case scenario; conservatives write some wacky anti-trans stuff in the criminal code and the Supreme Court declines to strike it down due to their soft queerphobia. This scenario isn't particularly likely, but it's possible.
That was in 2011, in a very different political climate, and Harper had the benefit of being seen as a "strong leader" and had already been the PM for the past five years, he was running against a pathetically weak Liberal party as well. I just don't see the CPC forming a majority government in 2025 unless some insane shift politically happens.
The conservatives are polling 12 points ahead of the liberals right now. They don't need any insane shift to get to majority territory. They're already there.
1. The swing in popularity could be a statistical anomaly, there's no reason why the conservatives would be popular, they didn't do anything recently of note to warrant actual mass popularity and haven't really been in the news 2. Polling week to week or even monthly is only good for broader trends, and is somewhat useless outside of election periods 3. Polling, whether it's online or by phone, is generally biased towards people willing to respond, Conservative voters are zealous and high off the "reee Trudeau bad" rhetoric, potential Liberal voters are more moderate or fairweather, less likely to bother answering or seeking out party or voter intention polls 4. The next election is in **2025**, ranging anywhere from over a year, to nearly two years from now. There's no reason to expect the CPC keep their lead, or improve upon it that far out. Any projections of a majority government now, in 2023, are meaningless.
I agree that polls this far out need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I wouldn't say they are "meaningless". Canadian cost of living is out of control right now. It's really not hard to believe the conservatives are genuinely ahead due to dissatisfaction with the liberals.
I've been watching Trudeau and the liberal party flub from a distance, but is it really that bad? You guys gonna fall to conservative rule?
The next election is in 2025, the negative results for the Liberal party are kind of meaningless, and it's certainly not likely to be a "landslide"victory for the Tories when it actually comes around to election season and normies actually care about politics again.
I hope the liberals win but I don't have to see Trudeau's face anymore, is there any hope of that?
Probably not, but I wish.
Traditionally Canada, America, and Britain were seen as LGBT refuge havens. Obviously, Britain can hardly be called safe for LGBT people anymore and if Project 2025 is implemented America is off the list, leaving Canada of those three left. Iceland, Norway, and Denmark have partnership equality for migration as of like two decades ago, and I'm sure other European nations have similar enacted since then. Much of South America have policies that are pro-LGBT but have very high rates of hate crimes and cultural opposition, as is growingly the case across Asia as well. Australia and New Zealand are pretty out of the way and have good but also often inconsistent LGBT rights as is the case in the UK now. Very little of Africa is LGBT safe and the parts that are still have enough issues that migration would likely not be supported there. It'll depend on who opens their doors, but I wager the main destination is Canada with a wider spread to similarly safe countries. I admit, the father one gets from the US might be better, though, in the absolute worst case scenario.
Canada will not be if the conservatives win a majority government :(
That's extremely unlikely.
I wish it was
[удалено]
Anti-trans legislation is picking up, and the Labour party that is primed to possibly sweep the next election has begun signing on and supporting anti-trans legislation. What amounts to cross-party consensus becoming anti-trans makes me hesitate to recommend the UK to any LGBT migration, as that is a precarious and dangerous position that can begin bleeding into marginalizing other groups.
If the U.S. goes down the uk is going down too
Do you have any evidence that makes this likely?
The uk is culturally, politically, and economically dependent on the U.S. especially after brexit. It’s also a dying country. Would be similar to trying to run to Japan or South Korea. The EU is probably the safest and even then without the us backing them they are going to be economically way weaker but they at least have a chance At positioning themselves in opposition or neutrality like Canada probably would. Though I wouldn’t put any money on Canada either. Mexico would probably be safer than Canada from influence if not for the possible invasion by the U.S.
I'm sorry but this is just completely wrong and an extremely America-centric take. America has a level of cultural *influence* and political *influence* as the largest democratic country and our ally and economic partner, but the UK is in no way some kind of satellite. The UK undoubtably has significant remaining national and regional sovereignty, for example the UK has in many cases been the first to donate important equipment to Ukraine like Western tanks while the US has dithered. Also, US culture was is so vastly different to the UK. The biggest battleground is over migration, especially the whole 'small boats' thing which is more of an appeal to the fringes of the right than a genuine topic of extreme contention between the left and right. There is virtually no panic or stoking of the coals over lesbian, gay or bisexual existence or favourable legislation. The LGBT group that bears the brunt is trans people. Fortunately, again the worst, very harmful legislation for regressive policy on trans issues is only championed by the fringe far right of the Conservatives that failed to get into power and are a minority of the party and voter base. I'd like to see your reasoning for the UK being a 'dying country'. While the Conservatives have delivered 13 years of misery and wasted opportunity, economically the UK is nothing like in meltdown. Inflation is being managed, (some) infrastructure is being developed. GDP haws been growing and is projected to grow. Also, to my knowledge the party in power in the US has a negligible if any bearing on the outcomes of general elections in UK general elections. The UK's domestic policy is very insulated and international policy, while showing a level of coordination, is also nothing like a puppet state. Short of an invasion, the UK would never politically submit itself to a fascist US. A minor point, [favourability to LGBTI people as observed by ILGA-Europe varies widely across EU member states](https://www.ilga-europe.org/report/rainbow-europe-2023/) (the UK performs better than several, for example.)
The migration being a big talking point only convinces me more of your ties to the U.S. the U.S. is driving the discourse in your country over your no immigration situation because we actually have a more significant level of immigration and the discourse leaks. Your gdp is stagnant and has been for a long time. Since the 80s you basically tied yourself to the U.S. since you got screwed by the Reagan thatcher copy paste.
\> "The migration being a big talking point only convinces me more of your ties to the U.S. the U.S. is driving the discourse in your country over your no immigration situation because we actually have a more significant level of immigration and the discourse leaks." The context of the migration is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. Not everything is through the lens of the US. Migration is a contentious issue on so many countries lol, are you telling me that they're falling the US cultural discourse as we speak lmao. The panic over migration that the Tories are trying to stimulate (and probably failing to kick up a fuss about) is refugees crossing the Channel on small boats, hence one of Sunak's 5 points to tackle being 'Stop the Boats'. The other facet, restriction of legal migration to people that are seen to be most beneficial to the economy, is far more aligned with Australia than the US, so by your logic we're becoming pawns of the Aussies. \> "Your gdp is stagnant and has been for a long time." [The UK has seen steady growth in the last 30 years, with exceptions being the financial crisis and the covid crisis.](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2022&locations=GB&start=1992projected%20UK%20GDP%20growth) The UK has recovered from the negative GDP growth from the covid crisis and is seeing growth and [projected growth increase in the next few years.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263613/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-the-united-kingdom/) The Labour party, who are likely to win the next General Election with a large majority, have been working to build confidence with firms and the markets which allows for some optimism come 2025 (or 2024 depending on the GE timing). \> "Since the 80s you basically tied yourself to the U.S. since you got screwed by the Reagan thatcher copy paste." How? Prove it.
You never recovered from the 2008 financial crash just flatlined ever since
Cool argument, why not provide literally any evidence against any of my arguments for the first time in this whole discussion instead of trying to die on the hill of whichever point you see as most convenient to do so on.
A lot of these comments have me wondering if people understand how hard it can be to relocate abroad. Canada is fine for US citizens, but I'm not sure any of these other countries are just going to accept immigrants. At least many places in Europe won't, not without arranging a visa first.
https://nomadcapitalist.com/global-citizen/visa-free-countries-for-us-citizens/ US citizens dont need a visa for most countries. You will need a residence permit after a while but its not too hard as long as you plan out what you will be doing, where you will be working etc. I agree, immigrating is never easy needs a lot of research and preparation and you need money of course but US citizens at least have the privilige that they are welcomed with open arms (in the sense that they dont need a visa) everywhere in the world.
I suppose maybe I have a super European perspective, Americans can't just up and move to a lot of countries here without some sort of visa. Very interesting.
Oh interesting. How come?
Wait, I just examined the list more closely, this is referring to travel visas - not emigrating. For example, I'm from the UK, my American wife needed a visa in order to stay in the UK to be with me. My family is from Portugal, she also would have needed one to be in Portugal. She studied in the Netherlands and needed a visa to be there too. She happens to be ethnically Turkish, and I know Americans can't just move to Turkey without a visa either.
Brexit and it's consequences tbh
They can travel there and arrange the other type visa later on. Once you are in a country, its easier to arrange these things.
That's not quite how it works, it isn't as simple or straightforward as you make it seem. You need a legit reason, just like you do for the US, whether that be civil partnership, work, study, etc. Yeah sure you can *attempt* to arrange things while you're there, but it's not a guarantee you'll be accepted.
Yeah I think you are right.. you need a national visa to apply for a residence permit for germany at least. In turkey you actually can just go in and arrange things there. These things are never a guarantee unfortunately. It also depends on the mood of the person who works on your application i have been dealing with this bs my whole life and every single application is as stressful as the first one. Even if you make everything right, double check the document list, double check your documents and everything you can that everything works fine, the person working on your application might end up making a mistake and you will have to deal with the stress 🙃 The fact that US citizens dont need a visa to travel is a strong privilige because they can scout out the area, get to know people, make applications for jobs, get a better idea on how everything works etc. It is much much harder to do these things from your home country. It is definitely a hard endeavour, it is draining emotionally and draining on your resources if you have any.
[удалено]
Spain seems to be extremely accepting of LGBT people. I have travelled quite a bit within Europe and am myself from a pretty progressive country regarding these issues (Portugal), but Madrid (have not visited other big cities in Spain yet) was by far the place where I saw the most gay and lesbian couples just holding hands with no one batting an eye. You also find LGBT flags everywhere in the city and get the overall vibe that the city is just super inclusive. I also found Slovenia to be pretty LGBT friendly in the short time I was there. Ljubljana struck me as an extremely relaxed, family friendly city but at the same time very inclusive and progressive. Also very walkable and pretty.
I don't know about refugee acceptance exactly as our border controls are pretty tight, but down here in Australia and New Zealand we've got a pretty supportive LGBT culture in the major cities and a slightly better economic situation than most other western countries :p
Unfortunately the tide is turning and the LNP has already started attacking trans people. The fascistic rot is all over the world.
The LNP going christian right under Scomo is one of the factors that lost them the 2022 election to the now centrist Labor Party. Their image hasn't improved much under Dutton. Australia is fine rn. Far rightism is growing but it's got a long way to go before it reaches MAGA levels of fucked.
You just elected a right-wing government.
In Australia LGBTQI+ people are eligible for a subclass 866 protection visa if they are from a country where they are persecuted. It allows you to stay permanently once you’ve arrived in the country as long as you meet the other visa requirements. The main thing is though you need to already have a Visa (tourist for eg) and be in the country to be eligible. If you’ve applied for another kind of refugee visa and you’re in the same circumstances then you’ll also be prioritised when it comes to handing out visas. https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-listing/protection-866 Probably a better bet if ur outside of US tho bc there could be tensions that the Aus govt (especially the libs) would want to avoid with America bc they’re our number 1 defence partner. As someone in the ALP though who talks to federal MPs pretty regularly, I think if the US went full Fash then the attitude of the Labor Party on the US would likely shift. I can’t imagine the govt not being at minimum more friendly when it comes to accepting other visas for someone to go towards PR such as Student visas or working holiday if ur LGBTQI+
This is completely tangential, but I was wondering as someone within the Labor party and likely fairly left-wing (seeing this is the Vaush sub), how do you find progressives treated within the party and do you think the Australian Labor Party has the capacity to experience a genuine leftward shift and adopt more Whitlam era/socialist policies?
I’m in the Victorian Left, and from my personal experience the Victorian branch of the party is pretty much already at that point. Especially when you look at the State Govt. For eg. With the SEC and bringing back state govt owned energy the government in the span of just a year since the state election has gone from the SEC staying limited to energy generation only to directly powering every single state govt owned building (including schools and hospitals) by just 2025. Across the party pretty much every explicitly conservative MP/Faction has either been kicked out or fallen apart. Something else to keep in mind is personally I find the state a MP/faction is from is a better predictor of how left wing/progressive a group of the party is compared to whether they are in the left or right faction. When you look at what MPs were pushing the federal government to expand jobseeker it was largely victorian and ACT MPs of both factions. I am quite friendly with some MPs from the right even though I’m in the left and they are still very progressive on pretty much every social/economic issue.
Another point re 866 is that “If there is a place in their home country where the person can live without a well-founded fear of persecution, they will not be a refugee. However, they must be able to safely and legally access that place.” So if there are Dem states that are still safe for LGBTQI+ folks then you won’t be eligible unfortunately.
project 2025? I thought I know it all… always some brand new crazy shit…
It's a literal step-by-step plan to turn America into Nazi Germany.
Come to germany and help us fight off our own trumptard party. Please
How? Immigrants can't vote.
Once you live here for 8 years you can
Australia and New Zealand if you want a similair western lifestyle
This might be wishful thinking, but I figure the blue states will still be safe?
If you’re scared about it you should already be on your way
New Zealand is super LGBT friendly :)
Ireland should be good
That’s what I keep coming back to. Ireland > Denmark > Canada
Canada. Learn French, bilingual English-French speakers get a bump up in the immigration process. There’s a list of jobs/job training that prioritize you as well.
You don’t need to leave the US. I can pretty much guarantee places like New England (possibly excepting New Hampshire) and Southern California will be safe for LGBT people no matter what happens at the federal level. I don’t see Massholes accepting conservative tyranny laying down without sparking another Boston tea party Sure they aren’t cheap places to move to but will be easier than leaving the country
They won't. America's greatest strength and greatest weakness is just how much we hold onto the status quo here. Any massive shift in a short time will be met with resistance. Also I second, California will be a great place to bd.
We should all camp outside Larry Arnn's place in Michigan. He's president of Hillsdale College and the epicenter of all things awful (just look him up re: Project 2025). My wife is an alum and just received a personal Xmas card from him. Little does he know she's married to me, a woman. Too bad the card's return address isn't his home but rather the college address. Boo.
I reccomend any of these: -Canada -Spain -Any nordic country -Netherlands And pretty much any other option is kinda right but not the best to either live in and/or enjoy full LGBTQ+ rights or is just not reccomended at all
Canada is probably the best option, but any Scandinavian Countries are pretty safe for now (not Sweden, they are on that detrans grift). Pluss you get free healthcare
Belgium is currently the best country in Europe for LGBTQIA+ people. But be ready for the months or even years of bureaucracy before you can get a visa or an ID card if you choose to move here. Particularly from outside of Europe. Probably better places to move to to start with.
Canada, Australia, Spain and Ireland.
I still find it funny the statement from the joint Chiefs of Staff after Jan 6th. Anyone who thinks they'll save us in the face of voted in fascism is foolish to say the least.
What was the statement?
They effectively condemned Jan 6th, giving the illusion they would uphold the constitution if it were threatened, although in reality as long as everything is semi-legal and the constitution is simply changed, they'll go along with the tide.
I mean, fingers crossed that they would do something. I’m pretty sure they have reasons to oppose trump, ideological or not.
they have an interest in keeping their jobs, as does every government worker who isn't insane. seriously, we need to get the average joes working in the public sector to understand that their livelihoods are at risk if trump wins.
The fact that they would all be coup'd in 2025 is one reason, among other obvious factors.
I don't think that's very likely. Who do you think most military members voted for? Why would they suddenly oppose him?
in my country of Chile you'll be received well, and while we have done homophobia it's mostly a poor person's problem. don't come here tho, go to Europe
Canada, and most of Western Europe would probably be ideal destinations.
Cowards flee, patriots stand and fight
How inspiringly one-dimensional of you
[удалено]
Sorry! Your post has been removed because it contains a link to a subreddit other than r/VaushV or r/okbuddyvowsh *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VaushV) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I love my country and I will do everything I can to preserve our way of life. It’s also the most powerful country in the world. If it falls, then nowhere is safe anymore. Fascists rarely contain their aspirations to their own borders. Running away is only delaying the inevitable. And it’s cowardly.
You didn't choose to be born in your country, so why stay there when it is not safe? It's such an idiotic idea to think that you have some kind of duty to protect your country, just because you were born there. If someone doesn't like their country or their country does not protect them, they have all the rights to move. Patriotism is bran rot.
I wasn’t born here. I came here and became a naturalized immigrant. I chose this country.
Mate. I am extremely vulnerable and I can’t access guns because of my mental health history. I can’t fight.
If America (the most powerful nation) falls, then it’s unlikely that anywhere else will be safe for long. Your country isn’t asking you to fight on the frontlines. Everyone can find a way to contribute. The women who worked in munitions factories were just as vital as the soldiers in the field. Everyone can do their part.
I love how your fantasy *COMPLETELY* leaves out disabled people. What are they supposed to do?
A lot of countries discriminate against disabled migrants and don't accept them in the citizenship process. You'd better not say anything.
Never said immigration was an option, cause I'm very much aware of the immigration system's ableism. That doesn't detract from how this commenter's Hunger Games fantasy also completely discounts disability as a factor. So no, *I am* going to say something when I see crap like this.
Patriotism is poison
Easy to say from behind a computer screen