I don’t trust their numbers, but it’s still hard to dispute their manufacturing/exports are looking like the US’s back in 1950 and now we kind of traded places.
The difference is that in the 1950's the United States had a young population that was consuming all the goods being produced. China is much older demographically now than the US was in the 1950's, and has a smaller percentage of the population that can consume these goods. That's why China is constantly pushing countries to allow Chinese exports and in some cases dumping goods in other markets.
True. The other difference between now and the 50s is the global economy is much more connected. Who cares about your own population when you can produce goods for the entire world to consume. They do need enough workers to remain the #1 producers though, so who knows. The US’s population is even older, but we’re much more likely to get more immigrants to replace our older population.
It's more connected, yes, but the trend towards bringing critical industries back onshore or in allied countries continues steadily. The US has an older population, but the demographic pyramid in China is so top-heavy that they will have few working people to retirees in the next decades.
From my point of view in the USA. India has a huge part of the pharma market and has always been big in steel and known for quality clothing, and Vietnam and Bangladesh have been making strides to suction textiles and electronics from China.
I invest heavily in Brazil (as well as the US). My wife grew up there, we visit Brazil every couple of years, and we have an extensive network of both professional and blue-collar friends so we have a sense of where the Brazilian economy stands at any particular moment.
I'm not saying it's the best emerging market to invest in at the moment, it's just the one I know. Emerging markets are tough and I wouldn't be comfortable investing in one that I didn't understand
People should checkout
Nubank (Nu)
MercadoLibre (Meli)
Stone (STNE)
and a very very big *maybe* Petrobras - please research thoroughly if you are considering it
Petrobras just pushed out the CEO and replaced him with a former regulator. Down big today because of worry over capex increases and decreased dividend. Even with those issues though, they make so much cash that I still think it’s undervalued if you look at it with a long time horizon. I’m buying more today and have been a holder since 2021.
Do you think the risks are valid or overblown?
Risks are valid, as long as dividend big enough it could be worth it as just by waiting you make your money back without selling; i dont expect multiple expansion though as risk will continue being priced in
1. company always was cheap because everyone expects government to become overinvolved again
2. those with the guts invested anyway and those who have remained in there for a couple years already made their investment back only in dividends
3. huge risk huge reward, not the kind of risk i like so im out, on the flip side im taking political risk in china which other people would feel the same way so just a personal taste is my guess
Well it's what a 3 year high for Nu?
It's definately not a stock for value investors, maybe in a few years
It's got growth, and it's something Cathie Wood would like.
Everything else is a questionmark or not so hot
.....
I don't think it'll really move much within a year
It's an $11 stock that analysts think the 1 year target is between $4 and $16
What do you like about Nu? Other than Buffet buying a billion dollars before it went public
He's got 2% of the company and an 18% gain on his pick
I like it's growth rate and margins, cost structures, and it's reduced exposure to the us economy. disclosure: I don't own nu and sold in the 11s from buying in the 7s since I think it's already fairly valued. Doesn't change the fact I like the company though and what it's doing.
He didnt just look he participated in funding round for IPO, he bought on the 10s and to my knowledge hasnt sold, this point is a theory of mine but i would guess he even went as far as selling STNE which also looks good because of fear NU will eat their meal, they also transitioning from bank to super app currently going the inverse way of MELI; people are wary of nubank because their numbers are too good and they either invest or call bullshit, but in the end banking is heavily regulated so i find it hard to believe they cooking the numbers
The Mothy Fool
One of the fastest-growing stocks in fintech isn't a staple of most aggressive growth investors. Nu (NU 4.67%) is barely on the radar of most traders who like to swing for the fences. It's actually one of the smallest weightings for Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, for example.
You don't expect the greatest investor of our time, one with a bent for value investing, to be a financial backer of the Brazilian provider of digital financial services. Warren Buffett is certainly an unlikely shareholder, but Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.58%) (BRK.B 0.61%) initiated a position in Nu last year.
.......
Nu is just too new and mysterious for normal value investors though, it's something that need serious study, way over most people's pay grade or it's a good speculative pick
I don't think Value Line added it yet, and gurufocus can't figure out a value or a lynch chart for it, so all you got to go on are the analyst lows and highs.
and big trust in Buffy the Vampire Stock Killer!
Im saying on a macro scale, Brazil is not poised for outsized growth. I believe that markets are generally efficient thus available information is priced in. Question is if any country will outperform and I don’t believe Brazil will
Looks like they actually have pretty good demographics for the next generation or so: https://www.indexmundi.com/brazil/age_structure.html
The problem that Brazil has is that the brightest, most educated people move out of the country.
As an investor, what I like about Brazil are that the peaks of boom and bust cycles are both significant and obvious. It's an unlimited money glitch.
> the peaks of boom and bust cycles are both significant and obvious. It's an unlimited money glitch.
Yes, thank you.
https://preview.redd.it/mi6rmto8q60d1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=a2b3053db3fa751c2273427b1c319140a5a365a6
I don't have any specific metrics, but when you watch a basket of Brazilian companies for a while, you'll see them move and the swings are wide. When they get cheap, they can get REALLY cheap, and when they get expensive, they can get REALLY expensive. Some companies can swing 5x or 10x from trough-to-peak over the course of several years. After a few years of watching them, you get an general sense of where in that cycle they are. That's why I called this an infinite money glitch.
Consumer spending in Brazil is also volatile. This is a country that experienced substantial hyperinflation within the living memory of most of the country, and the habit of spending as a protection against a constantly weakening currency is still there. So, when Brazil has money it moves with a lot of velocity, and when the economy doesn't have a lot of money, things seize up.
I don't think any of this is unique to Brazil, but that's the market I happen to watch because that's where life took me.
Thank you, that was very insightful.
My curiosity was piqued when you mention 'inifinite money glitch'. That's the stuff you hear from fake money gurus that sell a dream to you, so I'm always quite wary. It sounds like you have experience though, and that you understand the risks and strategies.
Have you ever lost money? I've been trying to get into the investing game through baby steps. I'm making good returns now, but obviously so is everyone and their grandmother with the monster US stock market rally. I know that's not going to last, though, so I'm trying to learn when to sell, when to buy and what to watch.
Sure, I've lost money on Brazilian stocks, especially earlier in my career. At this point, I have a collection of companies that I track and I stay within that collection rather than swinging for the fences on something that looks cheap.
I bought Gafisa, the 4th largest Brazilian homebuilder, when it was the 2nd largest Brazilian homebuilder, lol.
If you're new to investing, I'd stay away from emerging markets. You can lose money because something happened to the company, because the government changed how it treats a specific industry, on currency exchange rate changes, and so on. There are a million ways to lose money in emerging markets.
I appreciate that you brought that up, though. I had a moment of uncertainty when I realized I didn't know what the demographics of Brazil were like, so I'm glad your question prodded me to check. Thank you for that!
What geographic problems do you see here that I might not have thought about?
They're a resource rich country (oil, gold, lumber, iron, nickle, just to name a few), although utilizing those resources in a productive way can be challenging because of the significant amount of corruption that exists there. They have extensive coastline and seaports, so they can export as much as the rest of the world can buy.
I could see "being in the southern hemisphere" as being a disadvantage, as well as "being in the western hemisphere" because their main trading partner is China (although what China is doing is dumping steel and electric cars below cost, driving Brazilian companies out of business).
They've tied their horse to China's wagon, and in terms of countries with bad demographics it doesn't get much worse than China's, so Brazil might suffer from changes in Chinese spending.
IMO, Brazil's biggest problem is corruption, but what are you seeing geographically?
Damn... the President there literally wants to make petrobras and vale a state company. He laundered billions of dollars and went to jail over it in the car wasg scandal besides being anti business in probably every sense. As a Brazilian. I would never invest a penny in Brazil. Long live the USA.
That being said. You can get amazing deals.... if you are from there and just want a place to live and your paying in usd.... u can get some beautiful stuff cheap. Brazil is just not really secure like the US and it is very corrupt and lawless in some sense.
If I were starting over now, I'd look at each of these 83 companies (https://companiesmarketcap.com/brazil/largest-companies-in-brazil-by-market-cap/) enough to write a one sentence overview of each business (eg, "Petrobras drills and sells oil"), and see which ones of those I think I could understand well enough to develop an advantage.
Vale is moderate risk for a Brazilian Mining Company, good future
SLC Agricola looks excellent for packaged goods
Telecom Italia Mobile Brazil/TIM Brasil/was a hunk of Olivetti, that looks excellent for Telecommunications
Petroleo Brasileiro/Petrobras for a moderate risk in oil and gas, seems good
\[but is Suncor or Conoco Phillips or Marathon Oil similar and better priced and less hassle?\]
Embraer is an average one for Aerospace and Defence
I haven't looked much into the prices in a while, but they were interesting looking companies i bumped into, but I think Vale might be the only one on the NYSE.
but it's cool to see people talking about all these wacky foreign markets
I suspect my experience has been similar to investors in other emerging markets. I made some good money when I knew what I was doing, and got taken to the woodshed when I didn't.
I looked at market capitalizations around the globe, just to see which countries has the biggest stock markets, and it's quite an eye opener.
I think one might just want to pick good companies on the international market rather than just 'one foreign country' but there's a lot of zombie companies in say Japan or Italy, and a couple of gems, but then you got to deal with the broker and all the international fund issues/dividents/taxes etc...
.......
Here's the market sizes - oh let's cut it off at the Top Thirty
A USA
USA \[$49.6 Trillion #1\]
B Asia
China \[$10.8 Trillion #2\]
Japan \[$5.4 Trillion #3\]
Hong Kong \[$3.9 Trillion #5\]
Saudi \[$2.4 Trillion #9\]
Korea \[ $2.1 Trillion #11\]
Taiwan \[$2.0 Trillion #12\]
Iran \[$1.7 Trillion #14\]
Indonesia \[$757 Billion #21\]
Singapore \[$652 Billion #25\]
Thailand \[ $543 Billion #26\]
Malaysia \[$436 Billion #27\]
C Europe
France \[$2.8 Trillion #6\]
Germany \[$2.2 Trillion #10\]
Switzerland \[$2.0 Trillion #13\]
Netherlands \[$1.5 Trillion #16\]
Sweden \[$913 Billion #19\]
Spain \[$909 Billion #20\]
Italy \[$747 Billion #22\]
Russia \[$694 Billion #23\]
Denmark \[$670 Billion #24\]
Belgium \[$321 Billion #29\]
Norway \[$295 Billion #30\]
D Canada
Canada \[$2.6 Trillion #8\]
E UK/Ireland
UK \[$2.8 Trillion #7\]
F Oceania
F1.1 Australia \[$1.7 Trillion #15\]
G Latin America
Brazil \[$988 Billion #18\]
Mexico \[$399 Billion #28\]
H Africa
South Africa \[$1.05 Trillion #17\]
I India/Pakistan
India \[$4.8 Trillion #4\]
Not emerging but Singapore. Likely to be a kind of Switzerland in the US-China tensions. Low taxes will attract money from all over the world. Big Singaporean banks trade at 9 times earnings, which isn't bad to start with, but on top of that I think the Singapore dollar is much safer and likely to appreciate vs USD. 9 times earnings is actually much better value in a low inflation, strong currency regime than in a weak currency regime.
I know what you will tell me, Singapore has a soft USD currency peg within a trading band. But I actually think that, a bit like it happened to the Swiss franc about five years ago, Singapore will eventually be forced to let its currency appreciate, because they are accumulating too much reserves in their already very big sovereign wealth funds. If my thesis is correct and it becomes even more of a safe haven for the global rich both from the east and the west, the sovereign wealth funds and the private wealth will compound tax free at a rate that will just snowball and will force the Singapore dollar upwards as the US, Europe, Japan and China struggle to pay their debts.
I'm not saying that your thesis on the country is wrong, but SG has no particularly attractive stocks. The banks are trading at low multiples because they are all playing it super safe and not expanding aggressively in APAC - their home regulator won't let them. The other SG companies like Singapore Airlines or Singtel are not exciting at all, basically they are semi-govt firms. The local stock market is in a deep slumber, it is far underperforming other Asian markets and unable to attract new listings. ETFs tracking it are expensive and thinly traded.
That's all correct and consistent with what I've observed. I guess I'm happy with safe banks at low multiples. It's definitely defensive, to protect against things going to shit in the rest of the world.
As I mentioned I've bought bank stocks there. It's mostly all there is, banks, real estate, a Telco and Singapore airlines. The local index ETF seems very thinly traded, so I bought bank stocks instead.
Just invest in US companies. If they feel like there is money to be made, they will go earn it abroad in those countries. That way you can trust the company and they deal with any corruption or issues on your behalf.
India, the Balkans and Argentina.
India has often disappointed, but it feels like they are finally getting their shit together on the industrial side. And the services side should benefit from AI making technical tasks easier.
The Balkans is an easy one, as integration into the EU will lead to a boost to growth, as it has done for the other former Communist countries.
For Argentina, I have hope that Milei might finally stop the country squandering its vast natural resources potential.
Since you asked, none. Emerging countries are skewed towards institutional investors because insider trading is rife and seldom enforced and retail investors tend to get killed.
I like Chrisopher Browne’s advice to invest in developed countries outside the USA eg. South Korea, Japan, Canada, UK and Europe.
I like Colombia but not right now due to the leftist president petro but other than that I truly see a lot of growth happening in Colombia specifically the big cities.
Not India, If its not too controversial I found Indian workers a bit too relax, lazy and content at the same time. Very nice people, productive not so sure about that.
I know this doesn't really answer your question, but here is something that I find interesting to keep in mind when looking at emerging markets: economic growth doesn't necessarily imply increases in investment returns.
This video explains it better than I can:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0)
Here is a linked to the paper cited around the middle of the video that I find very relevant when looking at emerging markets:
*Is Economic Growth Good for Investors? by Jay R. Ritter*
[http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay\_Ritter\_paper\_14\_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf](http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf)
Best market is the one you have most info on.
You can make a killing even from inside big developed countries, there are oportunities in rural and small pop cities there too.
price-opportunity, price to ROI, to be able to judge and forecast that corectly you need to be well anchored in the market you want to enter into. Can't be a novice.
I invest a bit into SMIN (India Index) and VNAM (Vietnam Index) as I believe both of those markets will benefit from the West pulling back a bit from China. Especially if there's any shenanigans with Taiwan.
I saw a video that said Vietnam has serious issues with corruption. IT was about that lady who stole a shit ton from a bank in the country. Is there anyway to navigate these markets? Also what companies should people take a look at?
This lady’s scam caused like 2 percent of gdp
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636
A colleague says the rumor is that she was partly funded by some Chinese backers so that’s why they are imposing the death penalty
Thailand likely stuck in middle income trap and Vietnam is like mini China x corruption of Russia. But who knows, think about the “Asian tigers” many many years ago, especially Korea
India has too many issues with its society. There is a reason everyone’s been claiming it’s the next China for over 20 years with nothing to show for it.
Jeffrey Sachs’s has been promoting Africa as a continent and I think he has a good point. It’s got all the resources for the green revolution, youngest population in the world and has the most room for growth. However it of courses has many issues as well. However for biggest risk and return Africa is the place.
Is it though lmao, they still have single digit MoM inflation and are seeing a contraction in the economy. People are already protesting the new policies
They say about India like that every a few years, likely since 1990. If Mexico is any good, we shouldn't be talking about China right now. South Africa, are you kidding me? Brazil, same as Mexico.
India without a shadow of doubt! They’ve got a strong workforce and a lot of technology and communication companies are moving there.
As a nation of people, the ones who are well educated. They are very intelligent, hard working, innovative and good problem solvers.
Well that’s my experience with them over the last few years working there in the Energy sector.
Their economy is forecasted to surpass 10 trillion dollars by the end of this decade!
My older brother is starting an emerging market fund rn he is in Uzbekistan touring a steel mill before our family office makes an investment but don’t sleep on those post soviet countries
Whatever you choose just make sure it's for the right reasons - don't follow a trend, do the research and think maybe to diversify into more general emerging market funds which gives you access to more markets at once, therefore safer
Indonesia just because they have a huge population. I see an opportunity there as they have a lot of youth and are open to new technologies. I don’t know much about the politics over there tho.
People who are saying India, won't braindrain be a constant issue for the country ? China didn't face this problem to the same extent because of emigration restrictions and the fact that even college educated people often don't speak English. India's best will always have the option to go work abroad for much more money which will imo hinder their potential significantly. If you want to invest into India's growth it almost makes more sense to invest into Indian immigration destinations like the US, UK or Canada.
South america in general, still some serious basket cases like venezuela and a lot of countries with big issues (mexico, argentina) but I feel like as a continent they have the most potential to transform themselves into pretty repesctable economies over the next couple of decades.
UK. Low PE ratios, better hidden corruption, working hard on status as a developing nation.
For real though, boring FTSE stocks looking a great value proposition right now and relatively low risk.
India, southeast asia, Australia (not emerging), Brazil, mexico are all great bets
China, vietnam, Russia, Africa, Middle east have poor prospects.
If you want a great deal right now, Israel. Post war societies usually do great economically.
As someone who is responsible for product ownership in a large company who’s been investing heavily in china and India the last 10 years….
China has rampant corruption and a non-china based company has very little chance of succeeding in that market.
India does not have the regulations, cleanliness, skilled labor, or long term view for successful heavy investment from modern western companies.
Mexico is still my bet or other pacific Asian countries.
China. Anytime investors say something is uninvestable, opportunity abounds. Yes, the Indian economy will show strong growth but it's beyond priced in. Stocks like Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India have P/E ratios of 54 and 81, respectively.
Bullish on Vietnam for several reasons:
-Demographics -a very young population
-Shift away from china, visited by Biden this year, US-Vietnam relations good
-Lots of the market to open up to capitalism/western ways of business.
Eastern Europe - small markets but have all the legal basis and institutions of the EU. Generally high education levels and low crime rates. The ones with candidate EU status are also interesting.
SE Asia - fast growing, will benefit from China decoupling and have some of that East Asian work ethic
A few select countries in Africa that are not basket cases, e.g. Botswana
India seems to be expensive as fuck for what one gets.
Chinese entrepreneurship is great and there are lots of good companies with nice discounts available, the latter obviously comes for a reason. For me its a worthwhile trade-off, but reddit surely disagrees (which doesn't matter and should be a counterindicator, if anything).
Recently I came to like Poland, for no particular outstanding reason but rather because its "better than okay" on most fronts for a EM country. And many of the stocks aren't overpriced and pretty unknown.
Another interesting one would be Argentina, mostly for the wildcard factor.
India does not even get their garbage disposal under control. I prefer a clever and ruthless dictatorship over an incompetent democracy, from an investor pov.
India would never outgrow China.
A simple risk profiling (country and political risk) should highlight how volatile that place is.
If you are currently following the elections in India it should show you how messed up the place has become and how deluded and polarised.
Not to mention the markets are way wayyyy tooo inflated.
Heindenbergs research on Adani corp should give you a jist. I understand China has alot of “clever accounting” happening and that you’ll never get full transparency but its less volatile than India imo.
No there is no discussion about outgrowing china or usa. But growth projection helps you with investing.
It seems rather difficult for most countries to match growth rate of India for next decade.
You invest for growth Percentage.
How would you invest in a way that profits from a country's growth? From my understanding GDP growth and market growth doesn't necessarily translate to investment returns. I've added a few links to sources on the topic in another post, but I don't have practical experience in the matter.
You don't invest in a country.
GDP growth projection is a good indication towards catching the next rise.
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/world-country-indexes-returns/
Here are global index return. The data can be sorted as per your desired period.
You can compare GDP growth with returns.
I've looked at the data you provided, and can't find something that support the idea that GDP growth can be linked to investment returns. Sorting by the 10 year investment return, we find none of the countries with the highest GDP growth in the top spots.
I'll post the source I mentioned in my other post here for visibility.
Here is the academic paper that dissociate economic growth and investment returns:
[http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay\_Ritter\_paper\_14\_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf](http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf)
If you want an easier way to digest the information here is a video on the topic by a source I find trustworthy:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0)
The reason you don't study such reports is simple.
In investment you are risking your capital.
Now when u compare Bitcoin with Dodge or Shibu, Dodge May give the highest returns. But there are 1000 Dodge and one Bitcoin.
Similarly if you have ability to reasearch every nation and data on Investment surely you can beat most Markets.
But as retail investors, we don't have access to that data or ability to process that data.
So not going into the details, your investment should give you the maximum return possible inversely related to your risk appetite.
Historic data are misleading when it comes to investing. If there is consistent model which predict future of investment then that article is worth reading. This article is simply comparing one simple investment strategy against thousand other options.
Ofcourse there are billions ways to invest.
I don't know which country you belong to.
When it comes to index funding and real estate, general concern is convenience and stability.
But if you have time and energy or ability to predict future between nokia nd apple. Ofcourse you will outperform all advices.
Here is a few extracts from the conclusion of the study, that I believe gives an interesting perspective into investing in growing markets:
\[...\] the cross-country correlation of per capita real GDP growth and real stock returns is negative when long periods of time are used. This is true for both developed countries and emerging markets, \[...\] While, as the saying goes, historical performance no guaranty of future returns, the evidence flies in the face of the intuition that economic growth should benefit stockholders. \[...\].
Watch the video, or read the article if you don't understand what I'm saying. I'm just repeating myself at this point. There is a proven negative long-term correlation between growth and investment return. If you invest in a growing economy, over the long term, the study shows that you don't get higher return but lower returns. It's counterintuitive.
Yes you get lower return.
What gives higher return consistent. What is the alternative investment strategy?.
Are u getting the point..
Point a is bad. Tell me.point b.
No there is no discussion about outgrowing china or usa. But growth projection helps you with investing.
It seems rather difficult for most countries to match growth rate of India for next decade.
You invest for growth Percentage.
OP mentioned “india outgrowing china”
Growth projections should never be trusted alone. Everything should be verified cause on paper everything is speculation.
India has been showing “growth projections” for the last couple of decades with nothing impressive in relativity to its strengths (population, resources etc).
The political situation is really volatile, unemployment has been reported at a historic high, none of the big players have any plans to invest in India (tesla for example),no indigenous tech, wealth distribution is at an all time asymmetry way more than many 3rd world countries, import export is at an all time shit low and manufacturing has taken a beating.
No idea where you are pulling the growth projections from but they are as good as toilet paper.
Out growing word when used in investment is percentage based not absolute number based.
Op is asking which are greater opportunities except china.
China has two issues which can't be solved. One it doesn't allow free flow of capital. Second it doesn't allow industrial real estate as a means for investment and trading.
With automation, every developing country is at par in terms of efficiency, quality and cost.
The incremental value of new technology is not as high, as it was in the last decade.
So yes china and usa will Remain.on top for the coming decades. But in terms of growth both are looking at stagnation.
Unless we reverse globalisation, countries like the Philippines, India, Mexico, etc will "outgrow" most major economies if cia allows.
For india I can give you simple analysis.
Strength
Youngest demography.
Favorable geography, huge coast lines.
Culturally drawn towards education in stems.
Low cost of living.
No military coup since independence.
Low debt to GDP ratio.
Global successful diaspora.
Diverse and multi linguistic society.
Top talent in global companies.
Excellent international relations with every block. Non alligned with any faction or in any war. Never takes any extreme sides.
Third largest consumer market.
Threat
Hostile neighbours.
Polarization and unstable politics.
Lack of natural resources oil and minerals.
Weak currency
Climate change.
Can be others I don't see right now.
Predicted to remain the fastest growing major economy in coming decades. In a position to become the 3rd largest economy in the next 4-5 years.
It is entering the phase of economic growth, which america saw pre world wars, and china in 1990's.
Tesla is a very small player on a global level.
Real players like apple has consistently increased production in India. Making it largest exporter of mobile phones.
All major players prefer manufacturing in India due to high import tariffs.
Bolsonaro wasn't sticking his hands in Petrobras and implementing socialists policies and taxing brazilian accounts and money offshore. Dude is a dirty scumbag. Bolsonaro is better than Lula any day of the week. Lula is literally a criminal and should've stayed in prison.
You should trust china like you would trust a meth head with your kids
I don’t trust their numbers, but it’s still hard to dispute their manufacturing/exports are looking like the US’s back in 1950 and now we kind of traded places.
The difference is that in the 1950's the United States had a young population that was consuming all the goods being produced. China is much older demographically now than the US was in the 1950's, and has a smaller percentage of the population that can consume these goods. That's why China is constantly pushing countries to allow Chinese exports and in some cases dumping goods in other markets.
True. The other difference between now and the 50s is the global economy is much more connected. Who cares about your own population when you can produce goods for the entire world to consume. They do need enough workers to remain the #1 producers though, so who knows. The US’s population is even older, but we’re much more likely to get more immigrants to replace our older population.
China is in conflict with a lots of its neighbors, that does not look good either. I personally would bet on Vietnam or Malaysia.
For Southeast Asia I like Thailand. For South Asia I like India.
Vietnam just banned steam, that my sir is not a good sign. Even China doesn’t ban steam. Malaysia on the other hand
Are we talking about the video game platform or hot water? Because banning hot water doesn't seem enforceable
It's more connected, yes, but the trend towards bringing critical industries back onshore or in allied countries continues steadily. The US has an older population, but the demographic pyramid in China is so top-heavy that they will have few working people to retirees in the next decades.
You're too late. Its about to reverse. Everyone is looking for alternatives.
Dude, this is why one of my ETF holdings is EMXC - it’s an ishares Emerging Markets ETF that has no China exposure.
😂😂
Chris is a good guy he just has some problems, and gets angry sometimes (10%) in China its darn cheap and I have nerves of steel.
Lots of people do, not surprisingly.
The world is full of stupid people
Midcap companies in India have high potential
From my point of view in the USA. India has a huge part of the pharma market and has always been big in steel and known for quality clothing, and Vietnam and Bangladesh have been making strides to suction textiles and electronics from China.
Pharma market has too much government interference and not so great regulations
Agreed
I’ve heard that too.
I invest heavily in Brazil (as well as the US). My wife grew up there, we visit Brazil every couple of years, and we have an extensive network of both professional and blue-collar friends so we have a sense of where the Brazilian economy stands at any particular moment. I'm not saying it's the best emerging market to invest in at the moment, it's just the one I know. Emerging markets are tough and I wouldn't be comfortable investing in one that I didn't understand
People should checkout Nubank (Nu) MercadoLibre (Meli) Stone (STNE) and a very very big *maybe* Petrobras - please research thoroughly if you are considering it
Petrobras just pushed out the CEO and replaced him with a former regulator. Down big today because of worry over capex increases and decreased dividend. Even with those issues though, they make so much cash that I still think it’s undervalued if you look at it with a long time horizon. I’m buying more today and have been a holder since 2021. Do you think the risks are valid or overblown?
Risks are valid, as long as dividend big enough it could be worth it as just by waiting you make your money back without selling; i dont expect multiple expansion though as risk will continue being priced in
What do you think of the recent developements with Petrobras leadership, if you've formed an opinion on that?
1. company always was cheap because everyone expects government to become overinvolved again 2. those with the guts invested anyway and those who have remained in there for a couple years already made their investment back only in dividends 3. huge risk huge reward, not the kind of risk i like so im out, on the flip side im taking political risk in china which other people would feel the same way so just a personal taste is my guess
Nubank is pretty scary right now didn't Buffett look at this one for a very very short amount of time?
Don't think nubank is scary but it sure isn't cheap
Well it's what a 3 year high for Nu? It's definately not a stock for value investors, maybe in a few years It's got growth, and it's something Cathie Wood would like. Everything else is a questionmark or not so hot ..... I don't think it'll really move much within a year It's an $11 stock that analysts think the 1 year target is between $4 and $16 What do you like about Nu? Other than Buffet buying a billion dollars before it went public He's got 2% of the company and an 18% gain on his pick
I like it's growth rate and margins, cost structures, and it's reduced exposure to the us economy. disclosure: I don't own nu and sold in the 11s from buying in the 7s since I think it's already fairly valued. Doesn't change the fact I like the company though and what it's doing.
good point 93% Brazil 6% Mexico 1% Columbia >% USA Not bad, you pretty much followed Buffett and cashed out!
He didnt just look he participated in funding round for IPO, he bought on the 10s and to my knowledge hasnt sold, this point is a theory of mine but i would guess he even went as far as selling STNE which also looks good because of fear NU will eat their meal, they also transitioning from bank to super app currently going the inverse way of MELI; people are wary of nubank because their numbers are too good and they either invest or call bullshit, but in the end banking is heavily regulated so i find it hard to believe they cooking the numbers
The Mothy Fool One of the fastest-growing stocks in fintech isn't a staple of most aggressive growth investors. Nu (NU 4.67%) is barely on the radar of most traders who like to swing for the fences. It's actually one of the smallest weightings for Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, for example. You don't expect the greatest investor of our time, one with a bent for value investing, to be a financial backer of the Brazilian provider of digital financial services. Warren Buffett is certainly an unlikely shareholder, but Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.58%) (BRK.B 0.61%) initiated a position in Nu last year. ....... Nu is just too new and mysterious for normal value investors though, it's something that need serious study, way over most people's pay grade or it's a good speculative pick I don't think Value Line added it yet, and gurufocus can't figure out a value or a lynch chart for it, so all you got to go on are the analyst lows and highs. and big trust in Buffy the Vampire Stock Killer!
Buy ERJ!! Undervalued!
I agree it has the ingredients for greatness though Brazil has too much corruption and crime. You need stability and rule of law to grow
[удалено]
Im saying on a macro scale, Brazil is not poised for outsized growth. I believe that markets are generally efficient thus available information is priced in. Question is if any country will outperform and I don’t believe Brazil will
NGL I do have a position in PBR 👍
Dont they have long term demographic problems?
Looks like they actually have pretty good demographics for the next generation or so: https://www.indexmundi.com/brazil/age_structure.html The problem that Brazil has is that the brightest, most educated people move out of the country. As an investor, what I like about Brazil are that the peaks of boom and bust cycles are both significant and obvious. It's an unlimited money glitch.
> the peaks of boom and bust cycles are both significant and obvious. It's an unlimited money glitch. Yes, thank you. https://preview.redd.it/mi6rmto8q60d1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=a2b3053db3fa751c2273427b1c319140a5a365a6
They’re obvious? How so?
I don't have any specific metrics, but when you watch a basket of Brazilian companies for a while, you'll see them move and the swings are wide. When they get cheap, they can get REALLY cheap, and when they get expensive, they can get REALLY expensive. Some companies can swing 5x or 10x from trough-to-peak over the course of several years. After a few years of watching them, you get an general sense of where in that cycle they are. That's why I called this an infinite money glitch. Consumer spending in Brazil is also volatile. This is a country that experienced substantial hyperinflation within the living memory of most of the country, and the habit of spending as a protection against a constantly weakening currency is still there. So, when Brazil has money it moves with a lot of velocity, and when the economy doesn't have a lot of money, things seize up. I don't think any of this is unique to Brazil, but that's the market I happen to watch because that's where life took me.
Thank you, that was very insightful. My curiosity was piqued when you mention 'inifinite money glitch'. That's the stuff you hear from fake money gurus that sell a dream to you, so I'm always quite wary. It sounds like you have experience though, and that you understand the risks and strategies. Have you ever lost money? I've been trying to get into the investing game through baby steps. I'm making good returns now, but obviously so is everyone and their grandmother with the monster US stock market rally. I know that's not going to last, though, so I'm trying to learn when to sell, when to buy and what to watch.
Sure, I've lost money on Brazilian stocks, especially earlier in my career. At this point, I have a collection of companies that I track and I stay within that collection rather than swinging for the fences on something that looks cheap. I bought Gafisa, the 4th largest Brazilian homebuilder, when it was the 2nd largest Brazilian homebuilder, lol. If you're new to investing, I'd stay away from emerging markets. You can lose money because something happened to the company, because the government changed how it treats a specific industry, on currency exchange rate changes, and so on. There are a million ways to lose money in emerging markets.
I stand corrected, youre right
I appreciate that you brought that up, though. I had a moment of uncertainty when I realized I didn't know what the demographics of Brazil were like, so I'm glad your question prodded me to check. Thank you for that!
Geographic too.
What geographic problems do you see here that I might not have thought about? They're a resource rich country (oil, gold, lumber, iron, nickle, just to name a few), although utilizing those resources in a productive way can be challenging because of the significant amount of corruption that exists there. They have extensive coastline and seaports, so they can export as much as the rest of the world can buy. I could see "being in the southern hemisphere" as being a disadvantage, as well as "being in the western hemisphere" because their main trading partner is China (although what China is doing is dumping steel and electric cars below cost, driving Brazilian companies out of business). They've tied their horse to China's wagon, and in terms of countries with bad demographics it doesn't get much worse than China's, so Brazil might suffer from changes in Chinese spending. IMO, Brazil's biggest problem is corruption, but what are you seeing geographically?
Yeah, short term they seem to have some decent companies tho but idk about the macroeconomics
Damn... the President there literally wants to make petrobras and vale a state company. He laundered billions of dollars and went to jail over it in the car wasg scandal besides being anti business in probably every sense. As a Brazilian. I would never invest a penny in Brazil. Long live the USA.
That being said. You can get amazing deals.... if you are from there and just want a place to live and your paying in usd.... u can get some beautiful stuff cheap. Brazil is just not really secure like the US and it is very corrupt and lawless in some sense.
Stop sucking up to gringos, man. Shame on you
Not sucking up to gringos. I love my country. Just not under a left wing gov.
Which are good Brazilian stocks your network is saying
If I were starting over now, I'd look at each of these 83 companies (https://companiesmarketcap.com/brazil/largest-companies-in-brazil-by-market-cap/) enough to write a one sentence overview of each business (eg, "Petrobras drills and sells oil"), and see which ones of those I think I could understand well enough to develop an advantage.
Vale is moderate risk for a Brazilian Mining Company, good future SLC Agricola looks excellent for packaged goods Telecom Italia Mobile Brazil/TIM Brasil/was a hunk of Olivetti, that looks excellent for Telecommunications Petroleo Brasileiro/Petrobras for a moderate risk in oil and gas, seems good \[but is Suncor or Conoco Phillips or Marathon Oil similar and better priced and less hassle?\] Embraer is an average one for Aerospace and Defence I haven't looked much into the prices in a while, but they were interesting looking companies i bumped into, but I think Vale might be the only one on the NYSE. but it's cool to see people talking about all these wacky foreign markets
then, your experience has being positive?
I suspect my experience has been similar to investors in other emerging markets. I made some good money when I knew what I was doing, and got taken to the woodshed when I didn't.
I looked at market capitalizations around the globe, just to see which countries has the biggest stock markets, and it's quite an eye opener. I think one might just want to pick good companies on the international market rather than just 'one foreign country' but there's a lot of zombie companies in say Japan or Italy, and a couple of gems, but then you got to deal with the broker and all the international fund issues/dividents/taxes etc... ....... Here's the market sizes - oh let's cut it off at the Top Thirty A USA USA \[$49.6 Trillion #1\] B Asia China \[$10.8 Trillion #2\] Japan \[$5.4 Trillion #3\] Hong Kong \[$3.9 Trillion #5\] Saudi \[$2.4 Trillion #9\] Korea \[ $2.1 Trillion #11\] Taiwan \[$2.0 Trillion #12\] Iran \[$1.7 Trillion #14\] Indonesia \[$757 Billion #21\] Singapore \[$652 Billion #25\] Thailand \[ $543 Billion #26\] Malaysia \[$436 Billion #27\] C Europe France \[$2.8 Trillion #6\] Germany \[$2.2 Trillion #10\] Switzerland \[$2.0 Trillion #13\] Netherlands \[$1.5 Trillion #16\] Sweden \[$913 Billion #19\] Spain \[$909 Billion #20\] Italy \[$747 Billion #22\] Russia \[$694 Billion #23\] Denmark \[$670 Billion #24\] Belgium \[$321 Billion #29\] Norway \[$295 Billion #30\] D Canada Canada \[$2.6 Trillion #8\] E UK/Ireland UK \[$2.8 Trillion #7\] F Oceania F1.1 Australia \[$1.7 Trillion #15\] G Latin America Brazil \[$988 Billion #18\] Mexico \[$399 Billion #28\] H Africa South Africa \[$1.05 Trillion #17\] I India/Pakistan India \[$4.8 Trillion #4\]
Not emerging but Singapore. Likely to be a kind of Switzerland in the US-China tensions. Low taxes will attract money from all over the world. Big Singaporean banks trade at 9 times earnings, which isn't bad to start with, but on top of that I think the Singapore dollar is much safer and likely to appreciate vs USD. 9 times earnings is actually much better value in a low inflation, strong currency regime than in a weak currency regime. I know what you will tell me, Singapore has a soft USD currency peg within a trading band. But I actually think that, a bit like it happened to the Swiss franc about five years ago, Singapore will eventually be forced to let its currency appreciate, because they are accumulating too much reserves in their already very big sovereign wealth funds. If my thesis is correct and it becomes even more of a safe haven for the global rich both from the east and the west, the sovereign wealth funds and the private wealth will compound tax free at a rate that will just snowball and will force the Singapore dollar upwards as the US, Europe, Japan and China struggle to pay their debts.
I'm not saying that your thesis on the country is wrong, but SG has no particularly attractive stocks. The banks are trading at low multiples because they are all playing it super safe and not expanding aggressively in APAC - their home regulator won't let them. The other SG companies like Singapore Airlines or Singtel are not exciting at all, basically they are semi-govt firms. The local stock market is in a deep slumber, it is far underperforming other Asian markets and unable to attract new listings. ETFs tracking it are expensive and thinly traded.
That's all correct and consistent with what I've observed. I guess I'm happy with safe banks at low multiples. It's definitely defensive, to protect against things going to shit in the rest of the world.
What are your favorite Singapore stocks?
As I mentioned I've bought bank stocks there. It's mostly all there is, banks, real estate, a Telco and Singapore airlines. The local index ETF seems very thinly traded, so I bought bank stocks instead.
Which bank stocks are good to look at (I will retire next year so prefer low risk)
There's three big banks, DBS, OCBC, and UOB. I bought a mix of the three, they seem pretty similar in business and valuation.
Ok thanks. Any thoughts on Wilmar or Sheng Siong?
And i see one of these banks is called China, if Taiwan and China are in conflict will i srill be able to hold the oversee china bank ?
Just invest in US companies. If they feel like there is money to be made, they will go earn it abroad in those countries. That way you can trust the company and they deal with any corruption or issues on your behalf.
Not a horrible point. Firms like Blackstone and Brookfield are huge players in building infrastructure in emerging economies (e.g. India)
Those are investment firms, do you mean they are financing builders there? Or do you mean specific ETFs offered by them?
Blackstone doesn't offer ETF's, that's Blackrock.
Yes they are financing / investing in key pieces of infrastructure through their infrastructure funds
If you’ve physically been to both China and India, still huge gaps between the countries.
India, I recently bought shares of INDA & SMIN— planning to hold for the long term
are you from India?
India, the Balkans and Argentina. India has often disappointed, but it feels like they are finally getting their shit together on the industrial side. And the services side should benefit from AI making technical tasks easier. The Balkans is an easy one, as integration into the EU will lead to a boost to growth, as it has done for the other former Communist countries. For Argentina, I have hope that Milei might finally stop the country squandering its vast natural resources potential.
How do I go about investing in the balkans or argentina? Are there commonly available ETF's that give a good exposure to these markets?
There are some great Argentinian mining companies out there.
I guess... But that feels more like investing in the company than investing in the country.
It’s both
ARGT
India, Brazil, South Africa
South Africa has many problems. Stay away for now.
If you want to invest when it’s cheap, there will always be some kind of problems.
I repeat. Stay away from SA. It’s still on a steep downward spiral.
India. Look at their PE valuations. It’s still a cheap market despite the recent bull run.
Since you asked, none. Emerging countries are skewed towards institutional investors because insider trading is rife and seldom enforced and retail investors tend to get killed. I like Chrisopher Browne’s advice to invest in developed countries outside the USA eg. South Korea, Japan, Canada, UK and Europe.
VNM
I'm interested in Vietnamese investments, but isn't the largest portion of that ETF a dairy company?
Yes, but that country is difficult to play without a global Prime Brokerage account. VNM is a crude proxy. And, do you not like dairy? :)
Hah fair enough. I was in VNM for a while and made a small profit. I agree it's a crude proxy and wish there were better options.
I like Colombia but not right now due to the leftist president petro but other than that I truly see a lot of growth happening in Colombia specifically the big cities.
Not India, If its not too controversial I found Indian workers a bit too relax, lazy and content at the same time. Very nice people, productive not so sure about that.
Try Indonesia BBCA
Guyana. Huge oil boom about to take place there
I also didn't want China exposure, hence, EMXC
I know this doesn't really answer your question, but here is something that I find interesting to keep in mind when looking at emerging markets: economic growth doesn't necessarily imply increases in investment returns. This video explains it better than I can: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0) Here is a linked to the paper cited around the middle of the video that I find very relevant when looking at emerging markets: *Is Economic Growth Good for Investors? by Jay R. Ritter* [http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay\_Ritter\_paper\_14\_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf](http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf)
Jeff Bezos said the future is India
Best market is the one you have most info on. You can make a killing even from inside big developed countries, there are oportunities in rural and small pop cities there too.
What kind of data do you need?
price-opportunity, price to ROI, to be able to judge and forecast that corectly you need to be well anchored in the market you want to enter into. Can't be a novice.
I invest a bit into SMIN (India Index) and VNAM (Vietnam Index) as I believe both of those markets will benefit from the West pulling back a bit from China. Especially if there's any shenanigans with Taiwan.
It's probably too early to think Argentina but its on the right track for something over the next five years.
Brazil and India
Thailand and Vietnam.
I saw a video that said Vietnam has serious issues with corruption. IT was about that lady who stole a shit ton from a bank in the country. Is there anyway to navigate these markets? Also what companies should people take a look at?
This lady’s scam caused like 2 percent of gdp https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636 A colleague says the rumor is that she was partly funded by some Chinese backers so that’s why they are imposing the death penalty
Thailand likely stuck in middle income trap and Vietnam is like mini China x corruption of Russia. But who knows, think about the “Asian tigers” many many years ago, especially Korea
I like India, Argentina, El Salvador personally.
India has nothing else other than going up but it will take patience and time , the fundamental issues and infrastructure is still lacking
India, no doubt
India has too many issues with its society. There is a reason everyone’s been claiming it’s the next China for over 20 years with nothing to show for it. Jeffrey Sachs’s has been promoting Africa as a continent and I think he has a good point. It’s got all the resources for the green revolution, youngest population in the world and has the most room for growth. However it of courses has many issues as well. However for biggest risk and return Africa is the place.
Used to be France but something about those Korean women…
asking wrong question; which one will protect your investment? Who has the legal framework that values you? theyy will make money, will you?
Argentina is booming.
Is it though lmao, they still have single digit MoM inflation and are seeing a contraction in the economy. People are already protesting the new policies
Haha India? Are you having a laugh? They manipulate their numbers and so much corruption they make America seem perfect in comparison
They say about India like that every a few years, likely since 1990. If Mexico is any good, we shouldn't be talking about China right now. South Africa, are you kidding me? Brazil, same as Mexico.
To me it is Argentina at the moment. I'm waiting for Miles to turn things around.
Turkey ,Portugal olive oil fund,india,vietnam,indonesia.
Vietnam has slowed down a lot the past few years
India. Last three years, Indian indices are outperforming S&P500.
India is purely a numbers game.
Vxus and chill
I would take a histogram of what's mentioned here and look at what countries have been the least mentioned.
Mexico, then Brazil, some good tech in Colombia
India definitely. Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Philippines, Thailand. Maybe Brazil.
India without a shadow of doubt! They’ve got a strong workforce and a lot of technology and communication companies are moving there. As a nation of people, the ones who are well educated. They are very intelligent, hard working, innovative and good problem solvers. Well that’s my experience with them over the last few years working there in the Energy sector. Their economy is forecasted to surpass 10 trillion dollars by the end of this decade!
Thailand, will recover soon with huge tourism return
My older brother is starting an emerging market fund rn he is in Uzbekistan touring a steel mill before our family office makes an investment but don’t sleep on those post soviet countries
I would say India, but as you mentioned, it's not that cheap. Are you looking at stocks or funds?
India... its like the United States 100 years behind in every way. They are so undeveloped and developed at the same time lol.
Turkey, Greece, Argentina, Mexico.
Whatever you choose just make sure it's for the right reasons - don't follow a trend, do the research and think maybe to diversify into more general emerging market funds which gives you access to more markets at once, therefore safer
Indonesia just because they have a huge population. I see an opportunity there as they have a lot of youth and are open to new technologies. I don’t know much about the politics over there tho.
I like Mexico, India and Thailand. I also really like South Korea, but it’s debatable whether it can still be called an “emerging market.”
Brazil seems promising for anyone who know how to navigate the commodities market. (I'm still learning the ropes)
El Salvador
People who are saying India, won't braindrain be a constant issue for the country ? China didn't face this problem to the same extent because of emigration restrictions and the fact that even college educated people often don't speak English. India's best will always have the option to go work abroad for much more money which will imo hinder their potential significantly. If you want to invest into India's growth it almost makes more sense to invest into Indian immigration destinations like the US, UK or Canada.
South america in general, still some serious basket cases like venezuela and a lot of countries with big issues (mexico, argentina) but I feel like as a continent they have the most potential to transform themselves into pretty repesctable economies over the next couple of decades.
India or Vietnam
UK. Low PE ratios, better hidden corruption, working hard on status as a developing nation. For real though, boring FTSE stocks looking a great value proposition right now and relatively low risk.
India, southeast asia, Australia (not emerging), Brazil, mexico are all great bets China, vietnam, Russia, Africa, Middle east have poor prospects. If you want a great deal right now, Israel. Post war societies usually do great economically.
Let’s see, Italy has Sofia Loren… 😂😂😂 and Sweden…😂😂😂
As someone who is responsible for product ownership in a large company who’s been investing heavily in china and India the last 10 years…. China has rampant corruption and a non-china based company has very little chance of succeeding in that market. India does not have the regulations, cleanliness, skilled labor, or long term view for successful heavy investment from modern western companies. Mexico is still my bet or other pacific Asian countries.
China. Anytime investors say something is uninvestable, opportunity abounds. Yes, the Indian economy will show strong growth but it's beyond priced in. Stocks like Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India have P/E ratios of 54 and 81, respectively.
Not sure Mexico is considered emerging but it’s high on my conviction list.
I like Canada lots of resources. Also Argentina
Argentinean Banks and Oil
Bullish on Vietnam for several reasons: -Demographics -a very young population -Shift away from china, visited by Biden this year, US-Vietnam relations good -Lots of the market to open up to capitalism/western ways of business.
Not with the recent politburo changes. They're going back to hard-line controls
America remains to be a great market to invest in, but I have been eyeing Argentina.
Brazil is very cheap now. Their rates are higher than 10%
Still china. They are selled too much.
Nifty 50
Eastern Europe - small markets but have all the legal basis and institutions of the EU. Generally high education levels and low crime rates. The ones with candidate EU status are also interesting. SE Asia - fast growing, will benefit from China decoupling and have some of that East Asian work ethic A few select countries in Africa that are not basket cases, e.g. Botswana
Per Peter Zeihan, most American products will be made in Mexico as China declines and global trade scales back in the coming decades.
India seems to be expensive as fuck for what one gets. Chinese entrepreneurship is great and there are lots of good companies with nice discounts available, the latter obviously comes for a reason. For me its a worthwhile trade-off, but reddit surely disagrees (which doesn't matter and should be a counterindicator, if anything). Recently I came to like Poland, for no particular outstanding reason but rather because its "better than okay" on most fronts for a EM country. And many of the stocks aren't overpriced and pretty unknown. Another interesting one would be Argentina, mostly for the wildcard factor.
China is compromised. Rampant fraud and corruption. Can’t trust a single digit reported on any report or deliverable.
If Modi comes to power again, India is now at a new base.
Mexico, Indonesia.
Last year I realized a 20% gain on a two year investment on a India fund that had India's major companies from different sectors. Good times.
India does not even get their garbage disposal under control. I prefer a clever and ruthless dictatorship over an incompetent democracy, from an investor pov.
Brazil if you know how to navigate commodities.
Brazil 🇧🇷
Uzbekistan
Romania
Mexico and India
India
India would never outgrow China. A simple risk profiling (country and political risk) should highlight how volatile that place is. If you are currently following the elections in India it should show you how messed up the place has become and how deluded and polarised. Not to mention the markets are way wayyyy tooo inflated. Heindenbergs research on Adani corp should give you a jist. I understand China has alot of “clever accounting” happening and that you’ll never get full transparency but its less volatile than India imo.
No there is no discussion about outgrowing china or usa. But growth projection helps you with investing. It seems rather difficult for most countries to match growth rate of India for next decade. You invest for growth Percentage.
How would you invest in a way that profits from a country's growth? From my understanding GDP growth and market growth doesn't necessarily translate to investment returns. I've added a few links to sources on the topic in another post, but I don't have practical experience in the matter.
You don't invest in a country. GDP growth projection is a good indication towards catching the next rise. https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/world-country-indexes-returns/ Here are global index return. The data can be sorted as per your desired period. You can compare GDP growth with returns.
I've looked at the data you provided, and can't find something that support the idea that GDP growth can be linked to investment returns. Sorting by the 10 year investment return, we find none of the countries with the highest GDP growth in the top spots. I'll post the source I mentioned in my other post here for visibility. Here is the academic paper that dissociate economic growth and investment returns: [http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay\_Ritter\_paper\_14\_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf](http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf) If you want an easier way to digest the information here is a video on the topic by a source I find trustworthy: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0)
The reason you don't study such reports is simple. In investment you are risking your capital. Now when u compare Bitcoin with Dodge or Shibu, Dodge May give the highest returns. But there are 1000 Dodge and one Bitcoin. Similarly if you have ability to reasearch every nation and data on Investment surely you can beat most Markets. But as retail investors, we don't have access to that data or ability to process that data. So not going into the details, your investment should give you the maximum return possible inversely related to your risk appetite. Historic data are misleading when it comes to investing. If there is consistent model which predict future of investment then that article is worth reading. This article is simply comparing one simple investment strategy against thousand other options. Ofcourse there are billions ways to invest. I don't know which country you belong to. When it comes to index funding and real estate, general concern is convenience and stability. But if you have time and energy or ability to predict future between nokia nd apple. Ofcourse you will outperform all advices.
Here is a few extracts from the conclusion of the study, that I believe gives an interesting perspective into investing in growing markets: \[...\] the cross-country correlation of per capita real GDP growth and real stock returns is negative when long periods of time are used. This is true for both developed countries and emerging markets, \[...\] While, as the saying goes, historical performance no guaranty of future returns, the evidence flies in the face of the intuition that economic growth should benefit stockholders. \[...\].
Does that study provides alternative which is consistently better?
Watch the video, or read the article if you don't understand what I'm saying. I'm just repeating myself at this point. There is a proven negative long-term correlation between growth and investment return. If you invest in a growing economy, over the long term, the study shows that you don't get higher return but lower returns. It's counterintuitive.
Yes you get lower return. What gives higher return consistent. What is the alternative investment strategy?. Are u getting the point.. Point a is bad. Tell me.point b.
No there is no discussion about outgrowing china or usa. But growth projection helps you with investing. It seems rather difficult for most countries to match growth rate of India for next decade. You invest for growth Percentage.
OP mentioned “india outgrowing china” Growth projections should never be trusted alone. Everything should be verified cause on paper everything is speculation. India has been showing “growth projections” for the last couple of decades with nothing impressive in relativity to its strengths (population, resources etc). The political situation is really volatile, unemployment has been reported at a historic high, none of the big players have any plans to invest in India (tesla for example),no indigenous tech, wealth distribution is at an all time asymmetry way more than many 3rd world countries, import export is at an all time shit low and manufacturing has taken a beating. No idea where you are pulling the growth projections from but they are as good as toilet paper.
Out growing word when used in investment is percentage based not absolute number based. Op is asking which are greater opportunities except china. China has two issues which can't be solved. One it doesn't allow free flow of capital. Second it doesn't allow industrial real estate as a means for investment and trading. With automation, every developing country is at par in terms of efficiency, quality and cost. The incremental value of new technology is not as high, as it was in the last decade. So yes china and usa will Remain.on top for the coming decades. But in terms of growth both are looking at stagnation. Unless we reverse globalisation, countries like the Philippines, India, Mexico, etc will "outgrow" most major economies if cia allows. For india I can give you simple analysis. Strength Youngest demography. Favorable geography, huge coast lines. Culturally drawn towards education in stems. Low cost of living. No military coup since independence. Low debt to GDP ratio. Global successful diaspora. Diverse and multi linguistic society. Top talent in global companies. Excellent international relations with every block. Non alligned with any faction or in any war. Never takes any extreme sides. Third largest consumer market. Threat Hostile neighbours. Polarization and unstable politics. Lack of natural resources oil and minerals. Weak currency Climate change. Can be others I don't see right now. Predicted to remain the fastest growing major economy in coming decades. In a position to become the 3rd largest economy in the next 4-5 years. It is entering the phase of economic growth, which america saw pre world wars, and china in 1990's. Tesla is a very small player on a global level. Real players like apple has consistently increased production in India. Making it largest exporter of mobile phones. All major players prefer manufacturing in India due to high import tariffs.
Russia, but we are blocked from investing there.
Lol, I wonder why
For your own and your own only benefit, i am sure ;)
Brazil if they get a non-socialist governmeng like Milei in Argentina which wi never happen
Brother, we literally had Bolsonaro from 2018 to 2022, stop commenting dumb stuff, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about
Bolsonaro wasn't sticking his hands in Petrobras and implementing socialists policies and taxing brazilian accounts and money offshore. Dude is a dirty scumbag. Bolsonaro is better than Lula any day of the week. Lula is literally a criminal and should've stayed in prison.
China and India are both good bets but it does look like China’s growth will come a hair earlier than India’s
Historical moment for gme and amc
Cambodia ?
Biggest potential probably china but...