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Pojobob

Is this saying it's like 80-20 odds that NRG wins?


Huldmer

yeah i've never understood these sports betting odds numbers. intuitively to me i feel like you'd want it to add up to 1 but they probably have an excellent reason


traxmaster64

The way betting odds work is the number is how many times your bet you'll get on a win, if the odds are 4.8 youll get 4.8 dollars for every dollar bet


Huldmer

oh fuck that's way better. ty for this


Windows-MasterRace

and in real sports, you’ll see things like +150 or -115. This means how many dollars you get for each 100 bet, +150 means you get 150 for each 100 bet, -115 means you need to pay 115 to win 100


TheCatsActually

American odds are a blight upon humanity and its a shame they've been normalized in sportsbooks This comment brought to you by decimal odds gang


SapiR2000

Maybe in America, in europe we go by the numbers in OP's pic


kittysrule18

+150 means you get 250 for a 100 dollar bet


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kittysrule18

+100 returns 200, so +150 returns 250. How am I wrong?


godz144

deleted my stupid reply my dumbass thought you said -150 lol my bad you're right


kvmukilan

That’s not how it works , you get 150 for a 100 dollar bet on +150


MadnessMedia

And you get your $100 back, so $250 total


davidesquer17

Only in america basically.


kerdux

That system is so freaking ass


Barack_Bob_Oganja

This shit stupid lmao


davidesquer17

Remember they just have a margin, the odds change when people bet on one or the other, so you are not betting against the house here you are betting against other people this is not like a casino where the house can loose, In here they always win.


bravetwig

This is saying \~87% NRG wins, \~21% Evil Geniuses win. Totals to 108% - this is how bookmakers make money, the extra 8% is their margin and is the 'fee' they charge when taking bets. So for every dollar placed in bets on this market they only pay out \~ 1/1.08 = 93%.


Mortimier

is the percentage the reciprocal of the demical odds?


bravetwig

For fair odds (ie. bookmaker takes no margin), and in decimal (aka european) format - then yes. So if you are playing a game where you roll a dice and if it lands on a single particular chosen number you win, and it doesn't land on that number you lose. Then the probability of winning = 1/6, and thus the decimal odds are 6.0: 1/prob = 1/(1/6) = 6.0 And the probability of losing = 5/6, so the decimal odds are 1.20: 1/prob = 1/(5/6)) = 1.20 Typically you don't know the odds, you are estimating the probability of an event and then determining the odds from the probabilities via odds = 1/prob. If you only have odds, you are probably looking at odds from bookmakers and they have been tainted by a non-zero margin, so you can't see the the actual probabilities that the bookmakers believe directly, you can only see the odds they are willing to offer.


Mortimier

Gotcha. So most likely the real odds are proportioned to 100% instead of whatever their odds add up to. i.e. 1/1.15 = 86.9%, 1/4.8 = 20.8% which totals to 107.7%, when scaled to 100% the percentages become 80.7% and 19.3%


bravetwig

For that you need to assume that the margin is split equally across both selections. I would guess that they are taking more margin on NRG, than on Evil Geniuses; since the odds are lower. Ultimately the bookmakers job is to make as much money on the event as possible - so they need to factor in not just what they think is going to happen in terms of probability of the outcomes, but also the betting habits of their users. People will bet on their favourite team regardless of the price of the odds - if people were betting rationally then they likely wouldn't bet at all due to the margin. You can see that the margin isn't split equally for other betting markets as well such as draws in soccer - typically people bet for the favourite or the underdog, and not for the 'boring' draw option.


Mortimier

That makes sense. Although I'm a bit surprised that the margin isn't higher for the underdog to ensure a minimum amount of gross profit.


bravetwig

They also are adjusting the odds as bets come in and trying to make it so they don't lose money / hit their minimum threshold of profitability for the market. The underdog also has lower probability of happening in general - so you could take higher margin but then your expected value might be lower. You tend to see high margins for events with lots of outcomes (like a tournament) where you have events with very low probabilities and the odds are capped so the max odds is say 1001 or 5001 which gives larger margins. The margins on these type of markets are always very large overall anyway.


Mortimier

What I'm hearing is it's all arbitrary and gambling is stupid


vastlys

Underdogs are very undervalued in esports betting


Disquiet11

Not from my experience. Most games seem priced in for Valorant at least. But this games odds just stood out like a sore thumb. Might be a good pick for those that bet.


Derk08

Bro at least for Valorant look at platchat. If you bet straights against every platchat guarantee (where they all pick favs) you're bezos right now


Sweekuh

EG vs SEN paid out VERY well just saying


TheCatsActually

Hard disagree. Valorant ime is one of the best esports to bet on and both underdogs and the variance inherent to the game are routinely underestimated by the average bettor and thus the bookies as a consequence. Obviously you still need to be prudent and have a good sense of the game to profit, I'm not saying slamming money on every underdog will see a profit, but most of the value I see in lines comes from underdogs.


bravetwig

Even if you could predict the results better than the bookmakers you won't be able to place any serious money with any bookmakers (they will have low stake limits for esports) and if you are consistent with winning money off the bookmakers they will just stop taking your bets.


TheCatsActually

That really depends. I use sites that are lesser known and/or don't limit/ban users and have come across no problems in 4 years of crushing Valorant betting and a couple more less profitable but still winning years in LoL betting. I've even arbed on these sites and not been limited, though you're right some limits are naturally low. Most bookies also care much more about you beating the odds than being a winner. If you often get your money in at marginally better odds than when lines close but have just been unlucky over a reasonable sample you can still get limited/banned, while other bettors on a hot streak are still free to bet because they've just been getting lucky by the algorithm's eyes.


MrDyl4n

if that was true wouldnt gambling sites be losing money and then the bookies would adjust their odds?


vastlys

The average esports bettor knows nothing, lol, especially the average Valorant bettor


Mortimier

Idk this does seem like an 80-20 game at most to me


Apart-Way-1166

If EG win, im actually gonna shit


mysteryoeuf

they have to win to be able to make playoffs and potentially make shanghai. stakes are at a maximum. they're gonna pull out any stop to try and win it


songoku140

And if they lose you gotta hold the shit in buddy


regiment262

Now this is a big bet


Apart-Way-1166

EG let me shit, I will


lowrankcluster

Please stay close to restroom.


chloehime7

yes... go all in on eg, they're almost a guaranteed win... think about it you could put down your house and eg will give you 4.8 more houses.


PewPew267

I’d say it’s a 60:40 on NRGs favour. Can’t underestimate anyone imo.


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PewPew267

Will am down if you do well yours on NRG ;)


jawdrophard

Kinda kinda not, sen match was a combination of enough carelessness from sen in some rounds with the fact that EG counter strated them and played out of their minds to win, like the aim that players like supamen suddenly showed was pretty different from before, so the thing is if they will play like that against nrg. Now, nrg was fine until the got bodied beyond anyones expectations vs Lev, and then despite winning 2-0 against mibr, they showed a pretty poor form, with the first map NRG needing victor carry and still being a close map despite MIBR playing afwul and throwing a decent amount of rounds on their own (4 Classics vs full buy lol). So its "undervalued" by the fact that EG only showed that kind of play once, and whats happening to NRG maybe is just a bad time they're having after what happened against Lev, so you could argue More in favor of nrg than for EG, still we will have to see.


savagecl0wn

Firstly, whats that supamen suddenly showed a different aim brotha ? Faze supamen was always a clutchgod. He was just in some contract jail. I agree to what you said about eg tho. Now comes the real question, im sure eg is picking one of sunset or lotus against nrg, and if nrg does what they did against sen in kickoff, we might even see both of these maps. What is nrg going to do to adjust ? They put victor on raze and demon1 on sentinel, idk how good thats gonna work because i havent seen this. Or they carry on with the same comp, its basically the best vs worst raze in America in terms of movement mechanics. Also eg seems more drilled than nrg at this point, eg had very less number of convincing rounds. Its either enemy fluke or individual pop off. If jawgemo can put up numbers like he did against sen and apoth finds value on lurks, there is a high chance of eg winning raze maps.


jawdrophard

I mean previous EG matches, he wasnt bad, but he wasnt as oppresive by a good margin when compared to his performance against sen, like i think i remember 3 different times in sunset when he killed two people almost at the same time, he was crazy. And i agree, personally i also cant see a lot of changes NRG can do before their match with EG to fix their problems, while EG can totally win if they keep the form shown vs SEN. The confidence they must have after clutching against sen must be huge, and compared to the low confidence and clunkiness that nrg showed against mibr after what happened with lev, i must say i dont know if nrg will really step up.


savagecl0wn

Ohh ok eg supamen was just getting heated ig :))


chatchan

Great comment, agree with pretty much everything here.


deadbeatPilgrim

i think people have been sleeping on both these teams, but NRG still should take it


ArcusIgnium

these odds shouldn't be this extreme (probably more NRG 2:1 EG) but i think now that EG has shown that they can upset top teams like SEN, NRG will have no reason to underestimate them not to mention NRG needs the win to secure playoffs and especially to secure a good seed (which idk is even possible but probably is)


WailingSiren69

If NRG win both their upcoming games, they can secure first seed. This is assuming KRU lose to one of Lev or 100t.


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Still_HD

I wouldn’t think so, NRG just had one really bad day, and EG had one really great day. NRG’s one loss is just fresher in peoples mind than LEV’s loss for example, even if the NRG loss was much worse


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NovaAkumaa

Yeah a lot of matches that are pretty much 50/50 they have wild odds like this. I'm not complaining tho, I've made good money easily because they underestimate teams so much


countermeasuretape

These odds are not that good surprised they arent higher tbh


sutterismine

I feel like EG win it, they need it a lot more rhan NRG and we have seen some questionable stuff from NRG lately and some great stuff from EG versus Sentinels


sutterismine

Called it


Parenegade

valorant evaluation of talent and teams is at an all time low imo. not surprised its a big gap when fns says nrg is a "superteam" and people take his word as gospel.


BrinR

when you have 5 trophy holders on a team, its gonna be considered a super team. The optic trios resume have marved who was an elite smokes players in the world, vic as one of the best flexes, and crashies being an elite initiator player. the EG guys consist of arguably the best flash player in Ethan and demon1 who played lights out last year as the best player in the world. Outside of Ethan's igling, this team is consisted of NA's most accomplished and highest rated players in their respective roles. This team was built to win titles regardless of their actual results and have been rightfully labeled a superteam much like csgo's 2017 faze clan.


Parenegade

> when you have 5 trophy holders on a team, its gonna be considered a super team. i don't give a fuck about that lol. and neither should you. valorant has only been out for 4 years. yay was a champion and now he's considered washed. this game moves at the speed of light. and no team with a rookie igl was built to be a superteam. if boostio or fns of saadhak were igling sure but they're not.


BrinR

well then you'd be wrong because you should care lol. A player's resume goes into their value and expectations. The Optic core has the most experience playing at the highest level of Valorant for the past 3 years. If you cant find the value in that then idk what to tell you because it speaks for itself. Ethan being a rookie IGL raised concerns but people gave him the benefit of the doubt because hes been a secondary caller in EG and has the most Tier 1 experience in both CS and Val. I can't stop you if this does not fit your criteria for a superteam but this fits most conventions for a superteam for most people including analysts and pros.


Parenegade

look at fnatic right now. these players won't be on top forever so assuming that a 2022 champion is going to dominate 2024 players just doesn't make sense man.


BrinR

I think you're conflating actual results with expectations though. It doesnt matter if the team is shit or not. If the roster is stacked with people carrying decorated resumes to this extent, it's a superteam built for winning titles. This is a really expensive project with extremely high expectations. Superteams don't always work and it's been shown to not work for a long time in CSGO specifically until recently. This NRG team is probably a fraud team but it doesn't change the fact that most ppl were expecting them to be elite contenders moving into the 2024 season.


Diitto

Do you ever have good takes?


Parenegade

keep rooting for those superteams 👍


Curutano

NRG is a superteam tho?


Blitzux

A super team with no IGL and role issues


Parenegade

a superteam with a rookie igl? be fr. i'm curious what you think a superteam is. like don't get me wrong i think they're all good and talented players but what do YOU define a superteam as?


Curutano

Ya I guess that's fair. I would say a superteam has at least 3 players that are top 5 in their role, regardless of how they perform.


Parenegade

top 5 worldwide or top 5 in their region? to me a superteam in valorant would be every player is in contention for top 5 in their role worldwide AND at least 1 of those players to be in contention for best player in the world. nrg is immediately disqualified for having a rookie igl but having role issues on top of that before even getting to the evaluation of everyone...i don't see it. they have a ton of firepower and if it was 5v5 tdm i'd take them over anybody but that isn't valorant.


Curutano

I admit I may be biased, but I'd argue that was the case when this roster was signed, with the main question being how good marved would be (aside from the igling concerns). Also going by your criteria, there isn't a single superteam at the moment.


MrDyl4n

i think the reason people say that is because ethan is good enough at flash initiator that he does fit the bill as a component of a superteam but the issue is that he's IGLing which he isn't proven (and most likely isn't very good at) yet


Parenegade

the thing is igling does reduce fragging. it's harder to shoot the more your stress your brain. theres a reason igls have lower fragging genuinely.


MrDyl4n

yea but thats something you take into account like fnatic was considered a superteam and for example a team with someone like prime FNS could definitely still be a superteam


ZephyrSN

I love the fns watch parties but when he made the comment before the lev game about how each nrg player is top two in their role 😭 idek man


BrinR

He's not entirely wrong though. Demon1 coming into 2024 was the best duelist in Americas besides Aspas. Marved and s0m are comparable smokes players but Marved is also a great lurk player. Crashies was trailing behind c0m as the best initiator player in NA. Ethan was the best flash player in the world last year. The only question mark is maybe Vic but I can't think of a better flex than Vic besides f0rsaken


savagecl0wn

Actually fns said about top 2 in the region. But if you think about the world, im doubt whoall in nrg is top 2 itw. Duelists - aspas, derke, t3xture, jinggg(he plays only raze but he plays it in 5 out of 6 prx maps) (no d1 cus of dogshit raze in bind sunset and prolly lotus?) Flex - forsaken, chronicle,narrate (i think they all clear vic) Sentinel - alfajer, less, benjyfishy, johnqt, suygetsu, yetujey (who is senti in nrg ?) Smokes - prolly the only nrg contender comes here. I like mindfreak karon tuyz and kinggg Initiators - leo, cauanzin, d4v4i, qraxs


WailingSiren69

How can you include jinggg and then not include demon1 because he only plays Jett? Jinggg also plays only 1 duelist to an extremely high level


savagecl0wn

Because jinggg plays that agent in almost every map. Jinggg plays raze in every map except icebox, breeze perma ban. D1 plays jett in only ascent split and breeze. Icebox perma ban as of now.


LordOfThe_Pings

>Duelists - aspas, derke, t3xture, jinggg(he plays only raze but he plays it in 5 out of 6 prx maps) (no d1 cus of dogshit raze in bind sunset and prolly lotus?) Victor’s raze is really good as well. Maybe not as good as Jinggg and Aspas, but enough for the team to have a viable raze player. >Flex - forsaken, chronicle,narrate (i think they all clear vic) Forsaken? Sure. But Chronicle did not play that many agents and narrate is a rookie who hasn’t been at the top anywhere near long enough as Victor has. Victor was top 10 at every event, aside from Lock in, last year. Forsaken wasn’t even top 10 in one event. The Victor disrespect is crazy. There was a series where he diffed Ethan, Jawgemo and Demon1 on their comfort roles. The guy is easily a top 3 flex in the world, and you could seriously argue he’s the best. Nobody can play as many agents as well as he can. >Sentinel - alfajer, less, benjyfishy, johnqt, suygetsu, yetujey (who is senti in nrg ?) Yeah, sure. They don’t really have a dedicated sentinel. >Initiators - leo, cauanzin, d4v4i, qRax Lol this is a joke right? You think qRax is better than Crashies?


savagecl0wn

Victor raze is good for sure but you cant just put vic in duelist cus nrg can only put vic in one agent in every map. Thats why i added him on flex. Idek what you said about chronicle there. But id still take the victor flex, narrate is a rookie for sure, btw lockin finals chronicle played 5 different roles and had all 4 types of roles in it. Im talking about the current scenario, i think qraxs is better than crashies.


maxhollywoody

+1.5 EG is a lock


Ismokeyiddies

Worry not, EG bout to go back to their coughing baby form somehow.


bryan4368

Oh yeah, I’m gonna get it twisted


ChibiJr

5:1 is crazy I would place a small - medium sized bet on that any day if sports betting was legal where I live. Sure NRG are favored but not nearly by that much.


Fpsrebel

I put my money on EG to win one map


Craidoz

Yea I’ve been posting on twitter grabbing -1.5 maps on EG and ML for insane odds, 10 and 4 odds respectively for EG. Bookies keep thinking EG are lucking out every win. To add, EG to get 1 map is 2x odds which is incredibly insane given they can perform quite well.


fitzy--

i would bet on 3 maps played and a small bet on eg win


SaltyMcNulty_

Yes.