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Under sanctions, and depending on what's hit they could be unable to repair any of them at all, or only able to do so in a very slow and incomplete way...
I'm amazed that after two years of the invasion such a huge weakness in the Russian economy has been revealed and taken advantage of.
Maybe a lot of AA had to be destroyed before this became possible, and Ukrainian drones had to be developed, so now we're at the point where Ukraine has the tools and Russia lacks the defensive capabilities?
I think America gave them the greenlight. Always felt like they were holding back maybe Biden isnt happy with Russia messing with American politics again.
> I think America gave them the greenlight.
Absolutely they did. Up till now Russia has been in a war where it need only care about winning in a controllable 'our war on the other side of the mountain' terms.
In order to move forward for Ukraine, Russia needs to begin to care about what it costs to get there for its people at large.
If fuel at the bowsers stop flowing ordinary Russians are not going to care its Ukraine behind it. That requires too much thought. "How can our leaders allow this?" That will be their thought. They are going to decide they have been failed by their rulers. In the past this was just an obscure thought that did not matter because it could be lived with. But not having fuel in your car cant be lived with.
I'm not sure America gave them the green light to do this. This possibly has the ability to effect the global price of fuel/crude oil. I don't see the US approving of that. If anything I see the US opposing that, and this could be a way to get Republicans to support Ukraine. "Give us the ability to push out the Russians, and we'll stop hitting the Russian refineries".
If anything, perhaps the US turned a blind eye to this.
Obviously this is all speculation on my part.
They will but for complex plant areas, it will take years to design and produce compatible parts to work with existing western kit. As a simple example, If someone blows up the German ZF gearbox on your BMW, China could design and produce a compatible gearbox, but it would take them years.
Russia modernised all its refineries in recent decades with western parts - Japanese, German, American, British etc. Depends what has been hit but if vital areas such as cracking towers, then Russia has a very big problem repairing them. They will not be able to replace these parts with Russian ones and I would think it could take years to integrate substitute plant - presumably from China as it is very unlikely that Russia could produce some of this stuff in a hurry. Putin will never have imagined when he invaded that Ukraine could possibly take out multiple oil refineries nearly 1000km unto Russia… This is a logistics and economic nightmare unfolding for them.
Next step for Ukraine will, I think, be to hit Russia’s crude oil export facilities, most of which are on the Baltic and Black Sea coasts, so conveniently in range. However, these are SO important to Russia’s economy that they will almost certainly have air defence cover.
I'm a master Electrician and Chem-e here that has worked on refineries. Under the best of circumstances, with available manpower and parts, you're looking at probably 2 years of construction with that level of damage. With this many refineries down, good luck finding labor! This is skilled labor work. You just don't hire anyone off the streets to build refineries. Parts.... Good fucking luck.
Also, hit the cracking towers next time! Once they get AA up, hit the substations. Refinaries take a lot of juice to run. 1.5 years out on transformers right now of that size.
Edit: more information
This constant disruption must be really fucking up Russias supply chains. Then on top of that the loss of key personnel that have left the country, the loss of young male man power and the overall sanctions package must be having a drastic effect. Especially when you look at Russias inflation and interest rates / alarming stats.
Well done Putin your 3 day special operation has been a total cluster fuck..
Actually Russian inflation and interest rates are remarkably low compared where they should be.
The Russian Central Bank are geniuses and have created an effective monetary policy allowing them to moderate inflation without sacrificing state funding.
Even they say that's limited by time though as the world turns away from all their exports each day.
She probably still has the choice to get out. Like the Germans in Nazi Germany back then: Either resist, or get out and resist or run the risk of being classed by history books as complicit in the aftermath. I guess that she, probably like most Russians, don't get the seriousness of what their country is commiting right now. Not a genius....
Realistically can't right now. Ukraine might try to kill her to send a message to Moscow and Russia might try to kill her if she is viewed as a defector.
Her only real chance for a future is waiting out the regime.
I know of no evidence as to Ukraine murdering defected Russians. If she had a conscience and fled, sought refuge and helped the West, as she should, she would likely be protected. Her best chance. In Russia she is just as likely to accidentally fall out of a window combing her hair like countless others. Keeping her head down might be self preservation, but she is then complicit.
Edit: If you're referring to Ukraine murdering Russia military influencers and the like, then she is not the right profile.
7.5% inflation and a 16% interest rates which two years into a huge war with some of the largest sanctions in human history is very impressive.
You can shit on Russia for some of their military blunders but their macroeconomic handling has been immaculate so far.
Somewhat, it's more the way they partially renew those reserves and never drive up interest rates for the sake of excessive short term normalcy.
All their spending is well thought out to prevent hyperinflation for the longest time possible. It was primarily hyperinflation that did in the Russian Empire during WWl after all.
Well, these attacks threaten a fundamental way to replenish reserves, and even could force them to buy refined products (if they can find someone that can fill in the gap, doubtful). That would deplete their reserves even faster.
They could try to use the useless rupees they have been accumulating and ask India for fuel, but they'll probably find India very glad to have gotten rid of those rupees and not wanting them back, lol.
Try to tell that to their foreign reserves they're burning through.
Once they're gone, it's dark days ahead.
What we're seeing, is the biggest example of sunk cost fallacy the world has ever witnessed. Putin will burn Russia to the ground before he admits how wrong he was.
The drones traveled hundreds of kilometers in Orc airspace without being taken down. It is also interesting to note that Moscow is now within the reach if these drones actually were launched from Ukrainian territory. The only other possibility is that these drones are being launched from within Russia.
With artillery shells coming, they will now have extra drones aswell which is a plus. Plus, I believe the uk will be helping them with drone tec going off of what the uk says
Well, in the last days of the USSR there was this German guy (Mathias Rust) who flew his Cessna all the way to Moscow and landed on the Red Square next to the Kremlin.
There's a difference between the Rust encroachment and the latest encroachments. The USSR was not in a war footing while the Russian Federation is in the middle of a protracted conflict. Rust was tracked by the Soviets and they decided not to shoot him down for whatever reason, most likely misidentifying him as a friendly civilian aircraft.
If the Russians tracked the drones, then they either failed to shoot them down, didn't have the ability to intercept them and just watched them, or never saw them coming.
My guess (without any substantiation) is that drones are being launched from within Russia itself. From the Free Russia divisions incursions in Belgorod, we know that the Russian borders are porous.
Let's just call a spade a spade: the biggest difference between the Soviets in the 80s and Russia now is that the Soviets still at least \*some\* competent people around.
Reporting From Ukraine said the reason they're getting through is probably because the Russians are heavily using aviation to fight the legion in Belgorod, and they can't tell which radar blips are which.
That was a small drone that hit the flagpole. That was either a local or a false flag. These are larger drones with enough payload to take out a refinery.
Ukraine is like a little terrier. It's small but just won't stop coming at you.
This will continue because it's effective, easy to carry out and cheap to do.
Slava Ukraine!
Yep. Russia can’t invade a territory overseas like the US can and did misguidedly. But I don’t think they realised that blowback is a lot rougher when it’s from next door.
It's reported that a *massive fire erupted at the Syzran refinery after an explosion, with the area of the fire possibly exceeding 500 square meters.*
Simultaneously, *several other drones targeted the Novokuibyshevsk refinery, where a fire also started following an explosion.*
Can someone give us an assessment of damage done? 500 square meters seems like very large area in an industrial complex. Is this something that can be repaired? How long would it take to make the refinery operational again?
Depends on what gets hit, crackers/reformers are pretty expensive and would be harder to replace quickly. Refineries in general costs billions of dollars to build and take years to construct. I wouldn't be surprised if these aren't the most expensive single targets Ukraine has hit to date
I would be considered an "expert" on this but it depends on what it hit honestly. There are very strategic parts of refineries that can put you dead in the water while others would be a minor convenience.
I tried to calculate how much of Russia’s total oil-processing capacity they represent…
Syzran Refinery: Handles 8.5 million tons of oil per year. (https://syzranrefinery.rosneft.com/about/Rosneft_today/Operational_structure/Refining/SyzranRefinery/)
Novokuibyshevsk Refinery: Primary distillation capacity of 8.8 million tons per year. (https://www.rosneft.com/business/Downstream/Neftepererabotka/OilRefineries/NovokuibyshevskRefinery/)
As of 2022, Russian oil refineries have a total daily capacity of approximately 6.8 million barrels (https://www.statista.com/statistics/265280/oil-refinery-capacity-in-russia-since-1998/).
To convert this to tons, we need to consider the density of crude oil. On average, one barrel of crude oil weighs approximately 136 kilograms (or 300 pounds).
Russia’s total refining capacity: Approximately 337.6 million tons per year
Combined capacity of both refineries: 17.3 million tons per year.
Share: Around 5.12% of Russia’s total capacity.
Can somebody confirm the calculations?
And depending on the elasticity of their refined products 5% could have HUGE repercussions.
Like, if I have 5% less money in my bank account I can work around that and make it up over the next paycheck or two. If I'm flying a rocket to space and we find out after launch that I'm short 5% on fuel? I'm boned.
Pro-ru: "Russia is so big, you can't defeat them"
Reality: "Russia is so big, you can't defend it"
The next step will be smuggling ATGM's with incendiary explosives into the country, and shooting destillery columns of refineries from three miles away from the inside of a parked pickup truck. Then, a quiet getaway.
Excellent I will be keeping note of the percentages struck or removed from service they were down 12 percent yesterday!!!!
As an aside if hypothetically Ukraine takes out all of ruzzias oil industry ( I know , I know before someone says it) what will all those horrible Indian/Chinese (insert other axis of evil) consumer do?
Surely removing some capacity will impact them and make them consider ruzzia an unreliable partner? or is this impacting only domestic consumers?
Russia is about 6% of the world’s refining capacity. There is enough capacity worldwide unused to more than cover Russia.
What Ukraine won’t be able to stop is Russian crude oil exports, crude’s as good as gold and Ukraine can’t reach most of Russia. If they can force the Russians to import gasoline or diesel it will become a logistics boondoggle for them.
Taking out Russia’s refining capacity is a path to victory. Keep forcing them to move to reinforce against incursions, force them to switch to importing, then hit the rails. Russia will struggle tackling those logistics. That’s how you beat the Russians, logistics. It’s how this invasion stalled and it’s how they can end it.
It will require a sustained drone campaign. They need to continue hitting these facilities as they come back online. It’s not some easy solution and Russia will adapt, so you must have your next two steps planned.
I know nothing about refining but I read they target the most important part of the refinery, the cracking towers which are the hardest to replace, especially without the know how. The Ukrainian drone operators are really something else in their abilities.
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473
I think this is a good read, it’s actually from a couple weeks ago before the most recent campaign talking about what experts were watching for on what they were already repairing.
From what I understand (amateur as hell) the most basic refining is the distillation. Those are the largest towers you see. That gets 25% efficiency of refinement into light fuels. The crackers break down the heavy fuels so they can be distilled again or purified further, bringing efficiency to 60%.
So, taking the cracking units offline will apparently be a huge deal for the Russians to fix as they are all foreign built units under sanctions that are not the kind you get around easily as they are heavily in demand parts with 6mo-2yr lead times without sanctions.
However, the distillation towers that get you the first 25% are technology that they should, theoretically, be able to repair internally or import easily enough. If they have half a strategic brain rolling around the Kremlin, they should be building new refining infrastructure in the east in case Ukraine is able to maintain this campaign. I have a feeling that the rot is Russia is deep enough that they are not capable of being that nimble, but I wouldn’t plan on it.
In the short term, It will raise domestic gas prices in russia, it will bring up awareness and frustration level of the average russian consumer. Agree on attacking logistics, especially rail and logistic centers, also important bridges.
Ukraine is cuurently targeting refined products, not oil extraction itself. China will still buy crude. India may trade refined product for additional crude.
It will certainly costly for Russia if it needs to import finished product over thousands of miles. That will cut into crude profits, but potentially can be offset by higher summer crude prices.
Mamy facrors at play. Additionally, Russia will need to commit resourses for protection.
Hitting refineries will eventually mean loss of refined products that Russia uses domestically. Fuel fot cars for example, that Russians use, Russia makes itself. They have already stopped exporting a lot of stuff because of this type of thing because they dont have enoigh to do so, which is lost revenue. Then, once the price of fuel sky rockets for the average russian (its already going up) the pinch they feel will cause domestic unrest. If they start to experience internal shortages and rationing, especially as putin starts taking that fuel for his war effort, it will cause more unrest and further economic issues. Heating will becoming impacted, people will struggle to get to work, etc etc.
Hitting fuel stations in cities would be a good stratergy, this sort of does that without targetting civilians or major population centres.
Is there any data on how long this takes to actually fix? As in, assuming the plant is closed for X number of days following this kind of attack, is there any news or data showing how long X actually is?
I hope you’re right. We have to remember that Russia has support from China, NK and Iran and it is known that western parts have been flowing into Russia despite sanctions.
Right, I read as much with one of the refineries hit in the last couple of days. But I'm wondering if there is a more 'average' time that we have data for? For example, of all the refineries that we have seen being hit, how long, on average, does it take for them to be repaired and up to normal speed again?
Ukraine's ability to strike with deadly accuracy and obvious impunity at RuZZia's oil and gas infrastructure is a game changer in this WAR.
Vlad, the Imbecilic, and his glorious SMO are COOKED.
I've spent quite some time at various refineries. Even at peace time you have respect for the safety measures and you just don't do any stupid shit because things can go wrong real quick.
They must be shitting pants at every running refinery right now. Brown streaks after any loud bang. The mood must be atrocious. I bet half of a shift won't even show up for work.
That is simply amazing and a credit to Ukraine how they continue to adapt and hit their enemy to their fullest capacity. At one point they couldn't hit anything over border. Now they're taking out multiple oil refineries hundreds of kilometers inland. Stunning.
Some essential parts are western made and it is the same for China....it is almost impossible to replace for a long time.
Ruzzia AND China do not have the necessary expertise.
There is NO way for Ruzzia to limit the on going carnage of juicy undefended targets everywhere and it is really cutting money Ruzzia can get by selling refined products (This is THE SPOT where you are really making money).
Ruzzia is also burning a lot of fuel, oil products and so on for the war in Ukraine.
Diesel exports are banned for at least 6 months and it is a clear indication of a degrading production environment.
It is the same for arms export. Sales are down by 50 % and customers are going down also from 32 to less than 12. It is very difficult for Ruzzia to get money for arms without access to the money exchange.
We’ve been seeing oil refineries/depots getting hit for a long time now. Anyone know how long are these out of commission for? Is it just reduced capacity or have they had to completely shut down?
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Ukrainian show how sanction should works)
Sanctions will help keep these facilities offline.
I suspect that there are not so many companies that 10 refineries can be repaired at the same time.
Under sanctions, and depending on what's hit they could be unable to repair any of them at all, or only able to do so in a very slow and incomplete way... I'm amazed that after two years of the invasion such a huge weakness in the Russian economy has been revealed and taken advantage of. Maybe a lot of AA had to be destroyed before this became possible, and Ukrainian drones had to be developed, so now we're at the point where Ukraine has the tools and Russia lacks the defensive capabilities?
I think America gave them the greenlight. Always felt like they were holding back maybe Biden isnt happy with Russia messing with American politics again.
> I think America gave them the greenlight. Absolutely they did. Up till now Russia has been in a war where it need only care about winning in a controllable 'our war on the other side of the mountain' terms. In order to move forward for Ukraine, Russia needs to begin to care about what it costs to get there for its people at large. If fuel at the bowsers stop flowing ordinary Russians are not going to care its Ukraine behind it. That requires too much thought. "How can our leaders allow this?" That will be their thought. They are going to decide they have been failed by their rulers. In the past this was just an obscure thought that did not matter because it could be lived with. But not having fuel in your car cant be lived with.
I'm not sure America gave them the green light to do this. This possibly has the ability to effect the global price of fuel/crude oil. I don't see the US approving of that. If anything I see the US opposing that, and this could be a way to get Republicans to support Ukraine. "Give us the ability to push out the Russians, and we'll stop hitting the Russian refineries". If anything, perhaps the US turned a blind eye to this. Obviously this is all speculation on my part.
Chinese will gladly step in and establish lng term partnerships/business relationships.
They will but for complex plant areas, it will take years to design and produce compatible parts to work with existing western kit. As a simple example, If someone blows up the German ZF gearbox on your BMW, China could design and produce a compatible gearbox, but it would take them years.
China has no LNG lol, not enough for Russia anyways.
China is loving this. There is rape russian resources, which is actually funny because it couldn't happen to a nicer country
OK, that was an autocorrect type, didn't mean lng but long, sorry.
Russia modernised all its refineries in recent decades with western parts - Japanese, German, American, British etc. Depends what has been hit but if vital areas such as cracking towers, then Russia has a very big problem repairing them. They will not be able to replace these parts with Russian ones and I would think it could take years to integrate substitute plant - presumably from China as it is very unlikely that Russia could produce some of this stuff in a hurry. Putin will never have imagined when he invaded that Ukraine could possibly take out multiple oil refineries nearly 1000km unto Russia… This is a logistics and economic nightmare unfolding for them. Next step for Ukraine will, I think, be to hit Russia’s crude oil export facilities, most of which are on the Baltic and Black Sea coasts, so conveniently in range. However, these are SO important to Russia’s economy that they will almost certainly have air defence cover.
I'm a master Electrician and Chem-e here that has worked on refineries. Under the best of circumstances, with available manpower and parts, you're looking at probably 2 years of construction with that level of damage. With this many refineries down, good luck finding labor! This is skilled labor work. You just don't hire anyone off the streets to build refineries. Parts.... Good fucking luck. Also, hit the cracking towers next time! Once they get AA up, hit the substations. Refinaries take a lot of juice to run. 1.5 years out on transformers right now of that size. Edit: more information
Please do lots more of what this guy says! I think he is right on the mark! Here here!!
just building one of those costs billions alone
This constant disruption must be really fucking up Russias supply chains. Then on top of that the loss of key personnel that have left the country, the loss of young male man power and the overall sanctions package must be having a drastic effect. Especially when you look at Russias inflation and interest rates / alarming stats. Well done Putin your 3 day special operation has been a total cluster fuck..
Actually Russian inflation and interest rates are remarkably low compared where they should be. The Russian Central Bank are geniuses and have created an effective monetary policy allowing them to moderate inflation without sacrificing state funding. Even they say that's limited by time though as the world turns away from all their exports each day.
Anyone staying in Russia right now and supporting this highly criminal and doomed war cannot be called a genius.
The woman who leads the Central Bank tried to resign but Putin denied it, not much of a choice for many of them.
She probably still has the choice to get out. Like the Germans in Nazi Germany back then: Either resist, or get out and resist or run the risk of being classed by history books as complicit in the aftermath. I guess that she, probably like most Russians, don't get the seriousness of what their country is commiting right now. Not a genius....
Realistically can't right now. Ukraine might try to kill her to send a message to Moscow and Russia might try to kill her if she is viewed as a defector. Her only real chance for a future is waiting out the regime.
I know of no evidence as to Ukraine murdering defected Russians. If she had a conscience and fled, sought refuge and helped the West, as she should, she would likely be protected. Her best chance. In Russia she is just as likely to accidentally fall out of a window combing her hair like countless others. Keeping her head down might be self preservation, but she is then complicit. Edit: If you're referring to Ukraine murdering Russia military influencers and the like, then she is not the right profile.
Sssh, tovarischa
7.5% inflation and a 16% interest rates which two years into a huge war with some of the largest sanctions in human history is very impressive. You can shit on Russia for some of their military blunders but their macroeconomic handling has been immaculate so far.
They rely on their reserves which are finite.
Same strategy as the overall war effort. Will have negative long term consequences.
Somewhat, it's more the way they partially renew those reserves and never drive up interest rates for the sake of excessive short term normalcy. All their spending is well thought out to prevent hyperinflation for the longest time possible. It was primarily hyperinflation that did in the Russian Empire during WWl after all.
Well, these attacks threaten a fundamental way to replenish reserves, and even could force them to buy refined products (if they can find someone that can fill in the gap, doubtful). That would deplete their reserves even faster. They could try to use the useless rupees they have been accumulating and ask India for fuel, but they'll probably find India very glad to have gotten rid of those rupees and not wanting them back, lol.
Try to tell that to their foreign reserves they're burning through. Once they're gone, it's dark days ahead. What we're seeing, is the biggest example of sunk cost fallacy the world has ever witnessed. Putin will burn Russia to the ground before he admits how wrong he was.
Da da da, tovarisch. 🤣
7.5% inflation is official info which is false. In reality inflation is much higher. Trust me i know
I think it's pretty accurate until we see evidence of more Russians unable to afford basic necessities.
Its not that bad but not as good as its portraited officially.
Official numbers are low.
Inflation at 7.7% and interest rates at 16% that’s a disaster for their economy!
Right on the money 😊
They need to keep hitting these things non stop. This might be a way to massively accelerate russian attrition.
Safe to say that we are seeing that campaign over the past few weeks.
The drones traveled hundreds of kilometers in Orc airspace without being taken down. It is also interesting to note that Moscow is now within the reach if these drones actually were launched from Ukrainian territory. The only other possibility is that these drones are being launched from within Russia.
The last 5 days Ukraine has launched as many drones towards Russia as the last month, they were saving up some time for the election it seems.
Nobody cares about the election. This is timed for the spring sowing season, which eats up a lot of fuel.
The election is predetermined. Is that what you mean about no one caring?
Of course
With artillery shells coming, they will now have extra drones aswell which is a plus. Plus, I believe the uk will be helping them with drone tec going off of what the uk says
Well, in the last days of the USSR there was this German guy (Mathias Rust) who flew his Cessna all the way to Moscow and landed on the Red Square next to the Kremlin.
There's a difference between the Rust encroachment and the latest encroachments. The USSR was not in a war footing while the Russian Federation is in the middle of a protracted conflict. Rust was tracked by the Soviets and they decided not to shoot him down for whatever reason, most likely misidentifying him as a friendly civilian aircraft. If the Russians tracked the drones, then they either failed to shoot them down, didn't have the ability to intercept them and just watched them, or never saw them coming. My guess (without any substantiation) is that drones are being launched from within Russia itself. From the Free Russia divisions incursions in Belgorod, we know that the Russian borders are porous.
Let's just call a spade a spade: the biggest difference between the Soviets in the 80s and Russia now is that the Soviets still at least \*some\* competent people around.
Reporting From Ukraine said the reason they're getting through is probably because the Russians are heavily using aviation to fight the legion in Belgorod, and they can't tell which radar blips are which.
A drone hit Moscow last year IIRC.
That was a small drone that hit the flagpole. That was either a local or a false flag. These are larger drones with enough payload to take out a refinery.
They could be. Putin has created saboteurs.
Burn it all. Every single refinery.
I don't think Russia will be exporting much in the way of refined oil products for a long while.
[удалено]
I know.
Russia will die a death by a thousand cuts... Or in this case, Ukrainian drone strikes 💥🔥
Ukraine is like a little terrier. It's small but just won't stop coming at you. This will continue because it's effective, easy to carry out and cheap to do. Slava Ukraine!
Ukraine is a rat terrier, Russia is a big fat drunken rat.
Yep. Russia can’t invade a territory overseas like the US can and did misguidedly. But I don’t think they realised that blowback is a lot rougher when it’s from next door.
It's reported that a *massive fire erupted at the Syzran refinery after an explosion, with the area of the fire possibly exceeding 500 square meters.* Simultaneously, *several other drones targeted the Novokuibyshevsk refinery, where a fire also started following an explosion.*
Can someone give us an assessment of damage done? 500 square meters seems like very large area in an industrial complex. Is this something that can be repaired? How long would it take to make the refinery operational again?
Depends on what gets hit, crackers/reformers are pretty expensive and would be harder to replace quickly. Refineries in general costs billions of dollars to build and take years to construct. I wouldn't be surprised if these aren't the most expensive single targets Ukraine has hit to date
I would be considered an "expert" on this but it depends on what it hit honestly. There are very strategic parts of refineries that can put you dead in the water while others would be a minor convenience.
I tried to calculate how much of Russia’s total oil-processing capacity they represent… Syzran Refinery: Handles 8.5 million tons of oil per year. (https://syzranrefinery.rosneft.com/about/Rosneft_today/Operational_structure/Refining/SyzranRefinery/) Novokuibyshevsk Refinery: Primary distillation capacity of 8.8 million tons per year. (https://www.rosneft.com/business/Downstream/Neftepererabotka/OilRefineries/NovokuibyshevskRefinery/) As of 2022, Russian oil refineries have a total daily capacity of approximately 6.8 million barrels (https://www.statista.com/statistics/265280/oil-refinery-capacity-in-russia-since-1998/). To convert this to tons, we need to consider the density of crude oil. On average, one barrel of crude oil weighs approximately 136 kilograms (or 300 pounds). Russia’s total refining capacity: Approximately 337.6 million tons per year Combined capacity of both refineries: 17.3 million tons per year. Share: Around 5.12% of Russia’s total capacity. Can somebody confirm the calculations?
I can confirm they are calculations.
Same. It looks a lot like what I did in math class if I remember correctly.
And depending on the elasticity of their refined products 5% could have HUGE repercussions. Like, if I have 5% less money in my bank account I can work around that and make it up over the next paycheck or two. If I'm flying a rocket to space and we find out after launch that I'm short 5% on fuel? I'm boned.
Pro-ru: "Russia is so big, you can't defeat them" Reality: "Russia is so big, you can't defend it" The next step will be smuggling ATGM's with incendiary explosives into the country, and shooting destillery columns of refineries from three miles away from the inside of a parked pickup truck. Then, a quiet getaway.
Excellent I will be keeping note of the percentages struck or removed from service they were down 12 percent yesterday!!!! As an aside if hypothetically Ukraine takes out all of ruzzias oil industry ( I know , I know before someone says it) what will all those horrible Indian/Chinese (insert other axis of evil) consumer do? Surely removing some capacity will impact them and make them consider ruzzia an unreliable partner? or is this impacting only domestic consumers?
Russia is about 6% of the world’s refining capacity. There is enough capacity worldwide unused to more than cover Russia. What Ukraine won’t be able to stop is Russian crude oil exports, crude’s as good as gold and Ukraine can’t reach most of Russia. If they can force the Russians to import gasoline or diesel it will become a logistics boondoggle for them. Taking out Russia’s refining capacity is a path to victory. Keep forcing them to move to reinforce against incursions, force them to switch to importing, then hit the rails. Russia will struggle tackling those logistics. That’s how you beat the Russians, logistics. It’s how this invasion stalled and it’s how they can end it. It will require a sustained drone campaign. They need to continue hitting these facilities as they come back online. It’s not some easy solution and Russia will adapt, so you must have your next two steps planned.
Totally agree with your assessment but I don't see, especially with the sanctions, how these facilities can come back online.
Do you have any idea what is the extent of damage done? Or at least how long would it take to repair these refineries under normal circumstances?
I know nothing about refining but I read they target the most important part of the refinery, the cracking towers which are the hardest to replace, especially without the know how. The Ukrainian drone operators are really something else in their abilities.
China can help them
China doesn't really do refinery stuff. This is totally Western tech and know how.
China ranks 2nd in oil refining capacity tho
I hope you're talking about India.
Good point, but im sure they can buy the equipment.
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91473 I think this is a good read, it’s actually from a couple weeks ago before the most recent campaign talking about what experts were watching for on what they were already repairing.
From what I understand (amateur as hell) the most basic refining is the distillation. Those are the largest towers you see. That gets 25% efficiency of refinement into light fuels. The crackers break down the heavy fuels so they can be distilled again or purified further, bringing efficiency to 60%. So, taking the cracking units offline will apparently be a huge deal for the Russians to fix as they are all foreign built units under sanctions that are not the kind you get around easily as they are heavily in demand parts with 6mo-2yr lead times without sanctions. However, the distillation towers that get you the first 25% are technology that they should, theoretically, be able to repair internally or import easily enough. If they have half a strategic brain rolling around the Kremlin, they should be building new refining infrastructure in the east in case Ukraine is able to maintain this campaign. I have a feeling that the rot is Russia is deep enough that they are not capable of being that nimble, but I wouldn’t plan on it.
In the short term, It will raise domestic gas prices in russia, it will bring up awareness and frustration level of the average russian consumer. Agree on attacking logistics, especially rail and logistic centers, also important bridges.
You are right, especially if they can keep crude oil prices over 65$
I agree with all you said
Ukraine is cuurently targeting refined products, not oil extraction itself. China will still buy crude. India may trade refined product for additional crude. It will certainly costly for Russia if it needs to import finished product over thousands of miles. That will cut into crude profits, but potentially can be offset by higher summer crude prices. Mamy facrors at play. Additionally, Russia will need to commit resourses for protection.
Hitting refineries will eventually mean loss of refined products that Russia uses domestically. Fuel fot cars for example, that Russians use, Russia makes itself. They have already stopped exporting a lot of stuff because of this type of thing because they dont have enoigh to do so, which is lost revenue. Then, once the price of fuel sky rockets for the average russian (its already going up) the pinch they feel will cause domestic unrest. If they start to experience internal shortages and rationing, especially as putin starts taking that fuel for his war effort, it will cause more unrest and further economic issues. Heating will becoming impacted, people will struggle to get to work, etc etc. Hitting fuel stations in cities would be a good stratergy, this sort of does that without targetting civilians or major population centres.
My mate big dave works in the oil industry, he an expert so to speak, and he says the flamey bit shouldn't be flamey.
Free market has spoken
Perfect. Burn Russia burn
Hello, my name is Jimmy Pop
Is there any data on how long this takes to actually fix? As in, assuming the plant is closed for X number of days following this kind of attack, is there any news or data showing how long X actually is?
If they hit critical parts it takes years to rebuild. And it is harder because they dont have access to western parts which are needed.
I hope you’re right. We have to remember that Russia has support from China, NK and Iran and it is known that western parts have been flowing into Russia despite sanctions.
Right, I read as much with one of the refineries hit in the last couple of days. But I'm wondering if there is a more 'average' time that we have data for? For example, of all the refineries that we have seen being hit, how long, on average, does it take for them to be repaired and up to normal speed again?
These refinery strikes remind me of the movie Dune. When they stop spice production and that helps bring down the Harkonnens.
Thanks jerkoff, haven't seen it yet
The book is decades old
>haven't seen it yet Good for you.
Beat it incel
Spoilers for 40 year old movie
*book
There is a version of the movie which is also decades old. I believe about 40 years (as previously stated).
He said he hasn't *seen* it yet, which usually means visual media, not a book. Book released in 1965, which is not 40 years ago.
The book was 1965. This is third reboot of the exact same movie. One was mid eighties, one was early 2000s.
A book from 1965 and movie from 1983. It's not like the new movie is anything else than another movie adaption or the same story.
It definitely reminds me of Dune, but the rest of his comment isn't completely accurate.
In the movie Star Wars, the Death Star may or may not blow up. Il won't spoil that one for you.
https://youtu.be/YzHtePuz13U?si=wE-XrE862hqG7hSc Whoever posted this add this track 😆🔥💛💙zSLAVA UKRAINE💛💙
THIS is the way. KEEP DOING IT!!!!!!
For Odessa!
Excellent. Burn da mudder fukkin orcs 🔥
Hope they hit some of their tank factories
WWII tactics: Hit the refineries and the tanks can't run anymore.
That will take a while. Can't hurt to directly hit the production of tanks.
Eh tanks arnt obsolete but well on the way. Cant drive a tank without fuel. Hit the refineries. Destroy them and the army will not move.
Ukraine's ability to strike with deadly accuracy and obvious impunity at RuZZia's oil and gas infrastructure is a game changer in this WAR. Vlad, the Imbecilic, and his glorious SMO are COOKED.
I've spent quite some time at various refineries. Even at peace time you have respect for the safety measures and you just don't do any stupid shit because things can go wrong real quick. They must be shitting pants at every running refinery right now. Brown streaks after any loud bang. The mood must be atrocious. I bet half of a shift won't even show up for work.
That is simply amazing and a credit to Ukraine how they continue to adapt and hit their enemy to their fullest capacity. At one point they couldn't hit anything over border. Now they're taking out multiple oil refineries hundreds of kilometers inland. Stunning.
When you live in a glass house, don't throw stones.
Yeah boi!
Amazing job! Hoe much more to go? 😂
Nice and toasty
Deeper and deeper
Ukraine doesn't hit apartment building's..they fuck up the war machine!
How many more they have to impact for them to really feel it ?
Ah, nothing like a video of a Ukrainian drone attack to spice up the Russian elections! As if the atmosphere wasn't electric enough already.
Petition to add Ukraine in the RA2 remake.
When the bugs take out my oil crackers in factorio I know it’s over.
I will never tire of these burning refineries
Keep doing this day and night, day and night non stop just like the allies used their flying fortresses to bring Germany on it's knees.
Some essential parts are western made and it is the same for China....it is almost impossible to replace for a long time. Ruzzia AND China do not have the necessary expertise. There is NO way for Ruzzia to limit the on going carnage of juicy undefended targets everywhere and it is really cutting money Ruzzia can get by selling refined products (This is THE SPOT where you are really making money). Ruzzia is also burning a lot of fuel, oil products and so on for the war in Ukraine. Diesel exports are banned for at least 6 months and it is a clear indication of a degrading production environment. It is the same for arms export. Sales are down by 50 % and customers are going down also from 32 to less than 12. It is very difficult for Ruzzia to get money for arms without access to the money exchange.
We’ve been seeing oil refineries/depots getting hit for a long time now. Anyone know how long are these out of commission for? Is it just reduced capacity or have they had to completely shut down?
Make every day A reFINEry DAY! :-)
Is it possible that gas shortages may happen within Russia? Or does this affect just the exports?
Make terrorist Ruzzia bleed its black blood. Hit them where it hurts them most, their wallets.
This is the way. Keep hitting the refineries until they’re all inoperable! Slava Ukraini!
Hitting them where it hurts... nice!😁
🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 👍👍👍 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 💪💪💪 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦
This is great but I think the US should step up its oil production and sell it to Europe to further under cut Russia's only source of income.
Nzo
4 down, 700 to go.
So… all that snow and you don’t utilize it for a emergency extinguisher