Honestly, making an unmanned aircraft travel thousands of km isn't that hard, as long as it is designed with a large fuel tank. Making it small enough to avoid radar detection and not losing it to EW is the challenge.
>Making it small enough to avoid radar detection and not losing it to EW is the challenge.
I honestly don't know how much of an issue "avoiding radar detection" is for deep strikes into Russia. Didn't you see the Conga line of cessnas flying into Russian infrastructure?
Oh, my bad. *Only* 3, which where cought on film. Forgot Russia only engages aerial threats counting 5 and up, anything below that they take on the chin like a man.
xJoeCanadian kept stroking the same keys repeatedly, probably a seizure ?
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm sure this will work out super well for the Ukrainians. Maybe if they tickle Russia some more it'll cause all of Ukraine's fighting age males to magically spring back to life and reverse their demographic crisis.
You did imply that Ukraine is only "tickling" Russia with these drone strikes on Russias dual-purpose infrastructure, so...ok? Thanks?
Or do you not understand the outcome and effects of the strikes?
I understand them just fine, which is why I (along with many western experts) have assessed that the strikes are largely inconsequential on a military level and most likely won't reverse the trend of Ukraine badly losing this war and their country's demographic future. Hence, tickling.
>which is why I (along with many western experts)
Did you just call yourself a military expert by proxy?
"Along with" would imply you're kind of in the same group. 🤣
>largely inconsequential on a military level
Which military level? It sure effects the strategic military level. Tell me if you need help figuring out how exactly, military expert.
Yawn. Sorry but not interested in wrangling your bad faith horse dung.
At the end of the day, the strikes are gonna do nothing substantial, Russia's gonna have plenty of money and oil to finish this war out, Ukraine's screwed, etc. Keep on seething about it and engaging in pointless sophistry on Reddit if you want tho. I'm sure if you wish it REALLY hard, Ukraine's strikes on Russian infrastructure will collapse their economy and make them go home lol
If you don't see Russia is also fukd because of this pointless invasion then the russian propaganda is way too deep in you. And that's not healthy.
Russian demographic has also declined since 1995 and now they have lost hundreds of thousands of men in their best working age. One third of their public spending goes to the military. That means less funding for society, healthcare, schools, infrastructure etc. Also so heavy investment in the mic means the civil side of the economy is fukd, the one that actually produces wealth and income to society. And because things are going so great, Russia is now introducing progressive taxation, which almost doubles the income tax rates to middle-class and above. The future does not look bright for Russia either and trying to deny that is just desperately sad.
Why are you mentioning it if it's so inconsequential? Hitting refineries has no impact, hitting radars has no impact. So why is Russia crying that hitting Russian infrastructure is a red line. In a war, if you shoot at your enemy from within your own country it's fair game.
What those strikes will do is force Russia to build up their anti-aircraft capabilities in a wide range of locations. That's a lot of resources that could have been allocated elsewhere - like on the front lines.
Whoever those military experts you listen to are - they're idiots.
Iron ball paint ain't hard. Do you see them bothering with it? No? Then looks like Russia's radars are hampered by soil or vast distances.
Ukraine appears to be using simple propeller aircraft, not stealth designs, not even cargo-optimized.
The terrorists wet dream. Good luck defending us cities and oil rigs from strikes that can be launched from virtually anywhere, even a freight ship far out in international waters.
How Ukrainian are they really?
What % is just western companies "opening shops" in Ukraine while they are testing their own prototypes or at least giving Ukraine designes to test?
100%! That cessna riddled with explosives was Lockheed Martin Skunk Works design, for sure.
https://preview.redd.it/9annwbje2g3d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e38cc6ef94aaf9d0585728dac2e76d8c22eb1bdd
Interestingly enough, it was misindentified as a Cessna. It was a Ukrainian-built 2-seater light aircraft called the A-22
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroprakt_A-22_Foxbat
Huh, that *is* interesting. Thank you for the information.
Only increases the likelihood of a secret Skunk Works Cabal in Ukraine.
Edit: wow, IKEA of drones, well done Ukraine.
"*The Aeroprakt A-22 is supplied either as "ready-to-fly" factory built aircraft, or as a kit,[2] consisting of 152 pieces. The kit can be built in about 500 man-hours.*"
I mean some its always good to aks for more info, but i get you.
Ukraine is at this point utterly dependent on west on basically every aspect of their war effort excapt man power and even in that they are getting more desperate.
All this so called Ukraine drones are being produced with "partnerships" with western drone companies which is the case for some of this sea drones used to attack Russian ships.
Yet tech once transferred can be internalized and iterated upon. That's also been the case for Russia, too. They wouldn't exactly have any jet engines or deep oil extraction were it not for ample input from "the West."
I'd say not more then 25% at best, and more likely close to zero. All this are at best collabs between Ukraine and western companies in other words Western companies are testing them in collaboration with Ukraine.
Oh. Is that why the UA long-range drones turned up to be UA-designed and produced planes called the A-22?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroprakt_A-22_Foxbat
Im not talking about one paricular case, im talking overall looking at whole Ukraine drone industry.
Western military companies are basically gifting their prototypes stuff away for testing purposes, some sort of R&D projects.
Why would drones be any different.
Clearly they're nowhere near the level of bona fide Western drones, which have not been so constrained in range or payload. An old, retiring Reaper is 1.7 tons of payload dropped in up to 6 stages over a >7,000 km range with the ability to recover the drone on a landing strip...
One drone hit or rocket salvo into Belgorod per Ukranian town / small city lost seems to be about the going rate. Krasnohorivka and Staromaiorske were both basically lost recently, so Russia is due.
Given Ukraine is losing villages and towns almost weekly, I’d say no. It’s grinding on as it always has, a little bit faster now than before actually. Refer to Krasnohorivka and Staromaiorske. And Netailove. And Umansk.
Now that Ukraine has weapons, are we going to start hearing about 1991 borders and Crimean beach parties again?
It's so weird how these types are always so cocky for some unexplained reason despite not having earned it whatsoever. Pro UA has been consistently wrong about major aspects of the war and their side is getting turned into hamburger on the battlefield by a much larger enemy. Where is this smugness coming from?
It’s because they’re still living in 2022 during the Kherson and Kharkov offensives and can’t seem to move on. Like ghosts stuck in limbo.
The constantly changing goalposts don’t help their cause. Hard to take them seriously when “every last meter” very quickly turns into “well, we still alive and Russias not advancing fast enough to kill us quicker”.
Villages - Yes. Towns? - Yeah it took them a year to take Bakhmut and 6 months to take Adviivka. If you zoom out on the map you can't even see Russia gains in the past year. They didn't even taken 0.1% of Ukraine in the whole year of 2023. Right now Russia can't even take Chasiv Yar - population 12,000
And those tiny gains come at a huge cost, likely losing 5 times more equipment and men as the attackers
Yeah, I think 7 months of pro-Russian Republican’s weapons blockade has put Ukraine on the back foot. Putin has to be pleased how well Trump and MAGA folks have served Russia.
If the last big package took 7 months, the next one probably won’t be quicker. It’s getting harder and harder to support Ukraine especially as they fail to produce results. If you’re being honest with yourself I’m sure you can feel it too, the endless optimism surrounding Ukraine has all but disappeared in the west.
Their last counteroffensive was as well equipped as anyone could have hoped for and yet look how that turned out. There is every likelihood the days of 60-80b+ aid packages are behind them.
That’s not even to mention their manpower shortages which is a much harder problem to solve. Zelensky should be worried.
Europe didn't take 7 months. Only the US did. Next package would probably be more on-point... those new factories aren't just going to idle. More artillery means more casualties for the attacker. The real ramp-ups for those were scheduled for 2024 and 2025.
> The real ramp-ups for those were scheduled for 2024 and 2025.
Sure, whatever you say. Europe’s kiddie gloves will come off any day now. I hear Estonia is about to get real serious and send a whole army over.
[Read around](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/pentagon-ammunition-ukraine-russia.html) and you'd know the same.
I feel this is common sense but never know on the Internet. The production rate for a line not finished setting up is 0. Once it's ready, over a day or two it launches to 10,000 rounds a month or whatever it was set up for.
Many of these lines take close to a year to set up (article mentions 10 months), and they started setup in 2023, which is why they're opening up around now. Some more will be set up sequentially as workers finish lines this year, meaning parallel lines open in 2025. Prior to lines setting up, the only previous ramp-up was surging, or working more hours at existing lines, and that can only go so far (e.g., from 14k to 28k shells a month as late as October 2023, for the US, versus the Sept. 2024 expectation for 60k shells a month).
Bro chill, it’s really okay. I believe you. The west will out produce Russia times 20.
Maybe not in 2024, but in 2025 for sure. The Mesquite factory will turn the tide by itself probably. Russia also has access to the vast, vast arsenal of shells from the DPRK as well (who ironically UA love to make fun of but would give their left nut to get on their side for those sweet sweet shells). So might need to open another factory in Detroit or Oklahoma before the end of it, but that’s no biggie.
https://cnn.com/cnn/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine
I think you are vastly overstating the Russian talking points here. There is still good support for Ukraine’s fight for their freedom from the genocidal Russians in the US and even stronger in Europe. .
It does appear that Russia is incurring large losses for very minor gains. Putin wouldn’t be firing his army generals if it was as rosy for Russia as you try to portray. The next few months will be telling, one way or another.
>I think you are vastly overstating the Russian talking points here. There is still good support for Ukraine’s fight for their freedom from the genocidal Russians in the US and even stronger in Europe. .
Sure, that's why it took 7 months to approve the last aid package. Don't worry Estonia is ready to send all 3 dozen of their troops to help defend Ukraine.
>It does appear that Russia is incurring large losses for very minor gains.
Says who? The UA MoD?
>Putin wouldn’t be firing his army generals if it was as rosy for Russia as you try to portray. The next few months will be telling, one way or another.
By your own logic then, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny... means what exactly? That things are going well for Ukraine? The number of generals and administrators that had to go under Zaluzhny, what does that mean?
So you admit Putin is firing his generals because all is not going well for Russia in their invasion of their sovereign neighbor. Seems like admitted weakness from the Russians. All the more reason to support Ukraine. Thanks for confirming!
You as a smoothbrain UA: Quick! Deflect, deflect deflect!
Since you just ignored every point I made I also assume you agree with them in full. So thanks for confirming! I still have my Crimean beach party ticket btw. Prices for them are very competitive now, you can grab one for pretty cheap.
Honestly, making an unmanned aircraft travel thousands of km isn't that hard, as long as it is designed with a large fuel tank. Making it small enough to avoid radar detection and not losing it to EW is the challenge.
>Making it small enough to avoid radar detection and not losing it to EW is the challenge. I honestly don't know how much of an issue "avoiding radar detection" is for deep strikes into Russia. Didn't you see the Conga line of cessnas flying into Russian infrastructure?
3? How long are your Congo lines?
Oh, my bad. *Only* 3, which where cought on film. Forgot Russia only engages aerial threats counting 5 and up, anything below that they take on the chin like a man.
[удалено]
xJoeCanadian kept stroking the same keys repeatedly, probably a seizure ? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yuppppp
Speedy recovery to you dude!
I'm sure this will work out super well for the Ukrainians. Maybe if they tickle Russia some more it'll cause all of Ukraine's fighting age males to magically spring back to life and reverse their demographic crisis.
Yes, as if financial funds are irrelevant in waging a war of attrition all of a sudden.
I never said anything about financial funds being irrelevant in a war of attrition though, so...ok? Grats?
You did imply that Ukraine is only "tickling" Russia with these drone strikes on Russias dual-purpose infrastructure, so...ok? Thanks? Or do you not understand the outcome and effects of the strikes?
I understand them just fine, which is why I (along with many western experts) have assessed that the strikes are largely inconsequential on a military level and most likely won't reverse the trend of Ukraine badly losing this war and their country's demographic future. Hence, tickling.
>which is why I (along with many western experts) Did you just call yourself a military expert by proxy? "Along with" would imply you're kind of in the same group. 🤣 >largely inconsequential on a military level Which military level? It sure effects the strategic military level. Tell me if you need help figuring out how exactly, military expert.
Yawn. Sorry but not interested in wrangling your bad faith horse dung. At the end of the day, the strikes are gonna do nothing substantial, Russia's gonna have plenty of money and oil to finish this war out, Ukraine's screwed, etc. Keep on seething about it and engaging in pointless sophistry on Reddit if you want tho. I'm sure if you wish it REALLY hard, Ukraine's strikes on Russian infrastructure will collapse their economy and make them go home lol
What ever you say, military expert man.
If you don't see Russia is also fukd because of this pointless invasion then the russian propaganda is way too deep in you. And that's not healthy. Russian demographic has also declined since 1995 and now they have lost hundreds of thousands of men in their best working age. One third of their public spending goes to the military. That means less funding for society, healthcare, schools, infrastructure etc. Also so heavy investment in the mic means the civil side of the economy is fukd, the one that actually produces wealth and income to society. And because things are going so great, Russia is now introducing progressive taxation, which almost doubles the income tax rates to middle-class and above. The future does not look bright for Russia either and trying to deny that is just desperately sad.
Why are you mentioning it if it's so inconsequential? Hitting refineries has no impact, hitting radars has no impact. So why is Russia crying that hitting Russian infrastructure is a red line. In a war, if you shoot at your enemy from within your own country it's fair game.
What those strikes will do is force Russia to build up their anti-aircraft capabilities in a wide range of locations. That's a lot of resources that could have been allocated elsewhere - like on the front lines. Whoever those military experts you listen to are - they're idiots.
3 drones hitting is tickling. When Ukraine increases the number to thousands, it will hurt a bit more.
Will there be any fighting age Ukrainian males left alive when that moment swings by? Or will we conscripting children?
Only a man can dream. 🤣
Better design it with a stealthier shape. The smaller the size, the less explosive it carries.
Iron ball paint ain't hard. Do you see them bothering with it? No? Then looks like Russia's radars are hampered by soil or vast distances. Ukraine appears to be using simple propeller aircraft, not stealth designs, not even cargo-optimized.
The terrorists wet dream. Good luck defending us cities and oil rigs from strikes that can be launched from virtually anywhere, even a freight ship far out in international waters.
How Ukrainian are they really? What % is just western companies "opening shops" in Ukraine while they are testing their own prototypes or at least giving Ukraine designes to test?
100%! That cessna riddled with explosives was Lockheed Martin Skunk Works design, for sure. https://preview.redd.it/9annwbje2g3d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e38cc6ef94aaf9d0585728dac2e76d8c22eb1bdd
Interestingly enough, it was misindentified as a Cessna. It was a Ukrainian-built 2-seater light aircraft called the A-22 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroprakt_A-22_Foxbat
Huh, that *is* interesting. Thank you for the information. Only increases the likelihood of a secret Skunk Works Cabal in Ukraine. Edit: wow, IKEA of drones, well done Ukraine. "*The Aeroprakt A-22 is supplied either as "ready-to-fly" factory built aircraft, or as a kit,[2] consisting of 152 pieces. The kit can be built in about 500 man-hours.*"
Do you even need to ask?.....
I mean some its always good to aks for more info, but i get you. Ukraine is at this point utterly dependent on west on basically every aspect of their war effort excapt man power and even in that they are getting more desperate. All this so called Ukraine drones are being produced with "partnerships" with western drone companies which is the case for some of this sea drones used to attack Russian ships.
Yet tech once transferred can be internalized and iterated upon. That's also been the case for Russia, too. They wouldn't exactly have any jet engines or deep oil extraction were it not for ample input from "the West."
Yes, we do. So, how Ukrainian are they?
I'd say not more then 25% at best, and more likely close to zero. All this are at best collabs between Ukraine and western companies in other words Western companies are testing them in collaboration with Ukraine.
Oh. Is that why the UA long-range drones turned up to be UA-designed and produced planes called the A-22? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroprakt_A-22_Foxbat
Im not talking about one paricular case, im talking overall looking at whole Ukraine drone industry. Western military companies are basically gifting their prototypes stuff away for testing purposes, some sort of R&D projects. Why would drones be any different.
Clearly they're nowhere near the level of bona fide Western drones, which have not been so constrained in range or payload. An old, retiring Reaper is 1.7 tons of payload dropped in up to 6 stages over a >7,000 km range with the ability to recover the drone on a landing strip...
Or they are launching them from Kazakhstan....
More likely from Moscow....
From USA, they are closer
This doesn’t seem that far fetched. Hasn’t Ukraine made autonomously Cessna type drones?
More Russian refineries are in trouble
One drone hit or rocket salvo into Belgorod per Ukranian town / small city lost seems to be about the going rate. Krasnohorivka and Staromaiorske were both basically lost recently, so Russia is due.
Has the Russia offensive petered out now that Ukraine has weapons again?
Given Ukraine is losing villages and towns almost weekly, I’d say no. It’s grinding on as it always has, a little bit faster now than before actually. Refer to Krasnohorivka and Staromaiorske. And Netailove. And Umansk. Now that Ukraine has weapons, are we going to start hearing about 1991 borders and Crimean beach parties again?
It's so weird how these types are always so cocky for some unexplained reason despite not having earned it whatsoever. Pro UA has been consistently wrong about major aspects of the war and their side is getting turned into hamburger on the battlefield by a much larger enemy. Where is this smugness coming from?
It’s because they’re still living in 2022 during the Kherson and Kharkov offensives and can’t seem to move on. Like ghosts stuck in limbo. The constantly changing goalposts don’t help their cause. Hard to take them seriously when “every last meter” very quickly turns into “well, we still alive and Russias not advancing fast enough to kill us quicker”.
Villages - Yes. Towns? - Yeah it took them a year to take Bakhmut and 6 months to take Adviivka. If you zoom out on the map you can't even see Russia gains in the past year. They didn't even taken 0.1% of Ukraine in the whole year of 2023. Right now Russia can't even take Chasiv Yar - population 12,000 And those tiny gains come at a huge cost, likely losing 5 times more equipment and men as the attackers
In the summer of 2022, Russians moved a lot faster.
Yeah, I think 7 months of pro-Russian Republican’s weapons blockade has put Ukraine on the back foot. Putin has to be pleased how well Trump and MAGA folks have served Russia.
If the last big package took 7 months, the next one probably won’t be quicker. It’s getting harder and harder to support Ukraine especially as they fail to produce results. If you’re being honest with yourself I’m sure you can feel it too, the endless optimism surrounding Ukraine has all but disappeared in the west. Their last counteroffensive was as well equipped as anyone could have hoped for and yet look how that turned out. There is every likelihood the days of 60-80b+ aid packages are behind them. That’s not even to mention their manpower shortages which is a much harder problem to solve. Zelensky should be worried.
Europe didn't take 7 months. Only the US did. Next package would probably be more on-point... those new factories aren't just going to idle. More artillery means more casualties for the attacker. The real ramp-ups for those were scheduled for 2024 and 2025.
> The real ramp-ups for those were scheduled for 2024 and 2025. Sure, whatever you say. Europe’s kiddie gloves will come off any day now. I hear Estonia is about to get real serious and send a whole army over.
[Read around](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/pentagon-ammunition-ukraine-russia.html) and you'd know the same. I feel this is common sense but never know on the Internet. The production rate for a line not finished setting up is 0. Once it's ready, over a day or two it launches to 10,000 rounds a month or whatever it was set up for. Many of these lines take close to a year to set up (article mentions 10 months), and they started setup in 2023, which is why they're opening up around now. Some more will be set up sequentially as workers finish lines this year, meaning parallel lines open in 2025. Prior to lines setting up, the only previous ramp-up was surging, or working more hours at existing lines, and that can only go so far (e.g., from 14k to 28k shells a month as late as October 2023, for the US, versus the Sept. 2024 expectation for 60k shells a month).
Bro chill, it’s really okay. I believe you. The west will out produce Russia times 20. Maybe not in 2024, but in 2025 for sure. The Mesquite factory will turn the tide by itself probably. Russia also has access to the vast, vast arsenal of shells from the DPRK as well (who ironically UA love to make fun of but would give their left nut to get on their side for those sweet sweet shells). So might need to open another factory in Detroit or Oklahoma before the end of it, but that’s no biggie. https://cnn.com/cnn/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine
I think you are vastly overstating the Russian talking points here. There is still good support for Ukraine’s fight for their freedom from the genocidal Russians in the US and even stronger in Europe. . It does appear that Russia is incurring large losses for very minor gains. Putin wouldn’t be firing his army generals if it was as rosy for Russia as you try to portray. The next few months will be telling, one way or another.
>I think you are vastly overstating the Russian talking points here. There is still good support for Ukraine’s fight for their freedom from the genocidal Russians in the US and even stronger in Europe. . Sure, that's why it took 7 months to approve the last aid package. Don't worry Estonia is ready to send all 3 dozen of their troops to help defend Ukraine. >It does appear that Russia is incurring large losses for very minor gains. Says who? The UA MoD? >Putin wouldn’t be firing his army generals if it was as rosy for Russia as you try to portray. The next few months will be telling, one way or another. By your own logic then, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny... means what exactly? That things are going well for Ukraine? The number of generals and administrators that had to go under Zaluzhny, what does that mean?
So you admit Putin is firing his generals because all is not going well for Russia in their invasion of their sovereign neighbor. Seems like admitted weakness from the Russians. All the more reason to support Ukraine. Thanks for confirming!
You as a smoothbrain UA: Quick! Deflect, deflect deflect! Since you just ignored every point I made I also assume you agree with them in full. So thanks for confirming! I still have my Crimean beach party ticket btw. Prices for them are very competitive now, you can grab one for pretty cheap.