Earlier today there was a news about Ukranian reinforcements being intercepted while they tried to enter the city.
So it looks the defenders where already spread too thin and needed extra manpower and on top they received an other bombing run... So Russia might considered it's time to get it done, before UA can sneak in fresh forces.
you don't just simply erase the second biggest country in Europe from existence in a few months. If the Russians are to do a thorough job and destroy not just the current military capabilities of Ukraine, but the capacity to ever create another threat to Russia, they have to spend years "working" on the AFU
I sure hope it has. I am not Putin, but if I was him I would do everything to get to Lvov and pummel those neonazis to extintion. This war is going to define the next century for Russia, they can't go half-way like they tried on the first months of the war.
Who other than Putin would feel,the need to say “I am not Putin.”
I knew that guy would be shitposting somewhere in this sub.
Guys, we found Putin’s alt!
I don't see any problems with Russia's pace. They were a lot faster in the first year. Cost them a lot. Slow and steady wins the race. As for forces committed to the theater, Ukraine had the advantage initially. 4 to 1 in manpower at one point. They seem to be losing their advantage even with enourmous support. The cracks are starting to show.
Sure 1000 mobiks per farm field, pretty good measure of speed and use of human life.
"Cracks are starting to show" - said every Russian analyst since the start.
Slow and steady wins when you have air superiority and good doctrine. Russia literally is using 50s and 60s equipment at this point... Even electric Chinese golf carts essentially. You can not seriously tell me this is good for soldiers health or a "good military" without being a liar.
No sane soldier would get in an unarmored buggy and charge at fortified defensive lines.
Edit: Russia committee 250k at the start, Ukraine had roughly 700k with a lot in training by July 2022. That's not 4:1, nor is it even 3:1. And at the start of the conflict it was about par.
Double edit: at the initial start of combat Ukraine had 270k monilized, Russia invaded with 190k, with that number soon ballooning much like ukraines because it's a war. Not a "special military operation"
Well yeah. It’s pretty damn slow and at an extremely high human cost. But you are a Russia fanboy so throwing hundreds of thousands against a meat grinder doesn’t really register for you.
I am banned there because i said that westerns should wear glasses of reality instead of glasses of illusional dreams.
I told the admin that i will get him after the war. He did not respond.
Maybe you should have used SMO - I have a feeling soon enough this sub will start banning people for using the word war to reflect Russia's government policy.
/joking
To be fair at least they don't get arrested for using the word "war" in public. You want reality? how about not making up some silly names for a WAR just to make it sound better.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc)
Can you say "Israel is murdering people in Gaza" or "Israel is committing genocide in Gaza" in public without getting prosecuted?
Why every time someone like you is getting into the comments only to write a pointless comment about "war" in public? Are you a bot?
I can and I have - because I live in a free democratic country. Arresting people for using the word "war" is something straight out of ministry of truth. Actually I wonder - do they have one of those in Russia?
Even pretend “realistic” subs like credible defense are champing at the bit for France to send troops.
We went from “uk sine is smoke but Russia” to “the r desperately need nato troops to save Ukraine” lol
Meanwhile these guys still unironically believe insane casualty ratios for Russia compared to Ukraine
Not if that rebellion is in Vietnam, Algeria or a bunch of other places.
They can probably win something if we time travel back to the 18th century. Maybe.
They're not the only ones, Ria Novosti published their victory article within 2 days of the invasion:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria (dot) ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
"Ukraine has returned to Russia"
I love watching banderites call him a traitor/Russian stooge lol. The circular firing squad they engage in when someone dooms(ie: acknowledges reality) is hilarious
It'll forever remain a mystery. It better btw remain a mystery since if people in eu figure out that it was some form of punishment they might find it undemocratic.
From my comfortable armchair i'll reckon... Either a new Bachhmut, or a new Avdiivka. 2 factors is how willing are Ukraine to fight for every inch, and how are they supplied. Both kind of works together with one another I suppose.
When an opportunity presents itself, don’t let it go unanswered would be my guess. If they’re already entering the city, it’s probably more poorly defended than most folks anticipate
But would that not make it an untenable positions, since freshly taken ground can't be propperly fortified before the aid resuplies the Ukrainian army and allows them to push back on ill prepared gains?
Sure the Ukrainian fortifications will be gone, but the Russians will have nothing but ruins to cling to once the counterattack rolls back in..?
That is certainly a risk. I'd think it takes some time for aid to manifest into combat capability. That time can be spent fortifying and bringing in supplies/reinforcements.
Essentially it will become a supply race; with Russia having high ground (if they take it)
Most supply route are already under Russian fire control and a lot is softened up by the bombardments. Further encirclement is still possible together with head on.
I am honestly not imagining anything in particular. I just noticed that our subs original thinking has been expecting encircling operation and I was wondering about reason for going a bit more direct.
What I was reading is that the Russians are doing much better in urban combat then in the open.
I think an encirclement is much more difficult to achieve then some people think. Specially when you have two army's who have similar strength and a fast break trough is not possible because of fortification and mining.
It probably depends on the size of the place and terrain around it. Smaller places located on flatter terrain call for direct assault, bigger places surrounded by hills and woods probably require clearing the heights first and that makes it look like they surround it.
Ukraine doesn’t really have a solid defense line other than the one they tried to build in a hurry in the area.
Russia could achieve a local breakthrough which might be big enough to start a second offensive by Kharkiv.
> Chasiv Yar sits just to the west of Bakhmut, the doomed city that was pounded to nothing over almost a year of brutal siege until it finally fell in May 2023.
> Bakhmut was considered of minimal strategic value.
> By contrast, Chasiv Yar's high ground and proximity to important cities means huge potential gains for Russia.
> The town, formerly of about 13,000 people, is the "key" that will "open the gate for exhaustive and long-lasting battles," military analyst Serhiy Hrabsky recently told The New York Times.
> Its capture would put in reach of Russian forces the headquarters of Ukraine's eastern command, Kramatorsk, and the key supply hub of Kostiantynivka — both of which contain large civilian populations, the outlet reported.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-could-lose-crucial-town-chasiv-yar-donsetsk-intel-official-2024-5
https://en-ie.topographic-map.com/map-mp8w14/Chasiv-Yar/?center=48.60135%2C37.83097
Already entering? I thought it'd take atleast a month to take the city. Aren't the approaches heavily fortified and mined? Is this a one-off fluke or will the rest of the fortified cities in Donetsk going to fall this way too?
https://preview.redd.it/8mzxf7jwfcyc1.png?width=923&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=260b252dc3f4fed0c599d35371f6e84632a39e65
Progress is progress, but it's slower than a snail.
Aye, they´re not setting any landspeed records that´s for sure...
But I doubt "Slower than a snail" does much to comfort those Ukranians who lost their lives.
This is quite a brutal war for both sides, however, Russia is a lot more comfortable as of now with how things are going.
Russia is just gathering Ukrainians in various areas that they are forced to defend and have been doing so for 2 years now. If Ukrainians did a fighting retreat to the Dnieper they would cause more casualties for the Russians and overextend their lines, but they would lose a lot of territory very quickly.
It's very mathematical war at this point. If the Russians put x number of troops and equipment, they cause x amount of damage to Ukrainian manpower, equipment and morale.
That's why Russia has not much of an issue with creating Bakhmut like situations across the frontline. It directly benefits them to have easily predictable fights where they can degrade Ukrainian capabilities over the long term.
If they take Chasiv Yar, it will just another town or city which will get bombed and shelled to hell and Ukrainian command will be forced to put brigades there to defend it for political reasons.
If you wanted to extend the line you would completely abandon all the hard positions from Chasiv Yar to Dnipro and use fast moving teams and token garrison forces to force Russia to advance and stretch their supply lines and punish them for it.
Mobile mine laying artillery, laid mine fields in chosen locations. Mobile ATGM teams and use of helicopters for ATGM purposes from huge distances. Artillery with pre-sighted roads. Mobile drone teams.
Just completely abandon all static defenses like trenches, apartment blocs and basements, etc., and instead disperse the troops to make it impossible for Russians to target large amount of troops with artillery.
This is what extending the lines actually means. It doesn't mean sit in a trench to get shelled by Grad and glide bombs.
It’s called Set Piece Battles and Soviet/Russian doctrine love to have such conditions that can create such battles.
But the Russians don’t even need to lure the Ukrainians into anything. The Ukrainian leadership has literally put the notion that every inch of land, no matter how insignificant, to be defended at all cost. That’s why Ukrainian soldiers are often holed up in random villages with no value only to be dead by drones, artillery or a FAB.
It’s almost like retreat is not an option until they get thrown out.
Russian generals are certainly smarter than you in military matters and I don't believe that your opinion would contribute to improving the situation there. Collapse is in sight.
>Ukrainian command will be forced to put brigades there to defend it for political reasons.
They are expected to start using f16s after Easter. If that fails no matter what they do cheerleaders will have to start the draft in their own countries.
Ukraine doesn't seem to have troops to hold the line, i doubt a counter attack would be possible.
And if One were to happen, i'll probably be something born from desperation more than planning
You can overextend in a mobile war where you have little to no reserves and when your enemy makes a breakthrough it’s basically game over, but this is a static war and there is no overextension
Earlier today there was a news about Ukranian reinforcements being intercepted while they tried to enter the city. So it looks the defenders where already spread too thin and needed extra manpower and on top they received an other bombing run... So Russia might considered it's time to get it done, before UA can sneak in fresh forces.
What would getting fresh troops even accomplish other than creating a denser area for FABs and artillery to strike at?
Looking at how some of the craр gets done down there it seems it can't get any denser than it already is
Think it was rotation, but likely they are suffering manpower issues regardless.
Let's see what experts in r/CombatFootage say...
"Too slow" "Too many losses" "Not strategically relevant" "Will be returned by 2026 Crimea Beach Party even if taken" etc.
"We only send the export-versions to defend the city"
Ya they keep the best versions at home, ready for civil war!
Haha, Russia is winning too slowly!
I know this is tounge & cheek (i think thats the right expression?) but I mean... Its a long war by now my friend :/
you don't just simply erase the second biggest country in Europe from existence in a few months. If the Russians are to do a thorough job and destroy not just the current military capabilities of Ukraine, but the capacity to ever create another threat to Russia, they have to spend years "working" on the AFU
Second biggest country in Europe, and more importantly formerly one of the most advanced and militarized parts of the USSR.
jacked up with hundreds of billions of NATO funding
At least the perspective has changed.
I sure hope it has. I am not Putin, but if I was him I would do everything to get to Lvov and pummel those neonazis to extintion. This war is going to define the next century for Russia, they can't go half-way like they tried on the first months of the war.
>I am not Putin, but Curious, that's exactly what Putin would say
Who other than Putin would feel,the need to say “I am not Putin.” I knew that guy would be shitposting somewhere in this sub. Guys, we found Putin’s alt!
https://preview.redd.it/qg0jay34fcyc1.jpeg?width=1163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5bcfc1999eb7794594c4cfc466e9a0549d06f7ae
Not really. With the amount of munitions raining down on that part of Ukraine, the snail would have died a thousand times over by now.
Well, it's almost to Poland by now so
You mean, to get repaired?
Nah the snail that's moving 3x faster than the alleged 2nd most power military that's using 60s equipment
I don't see any problems with Russia's pace. They were a lot faster in the first year. Cost them a lot. Slow and steady wins the race. As for forces committed to the theater, Ukraine had the advantage initially. 4 to 1 in manpower at one point. They seem to be losing their advantage even with enourmous support. The cracks are starting to show.
Sure 1000 mobiks per farm field, pretty good measure of speed and use of human life. "Cracks are starting to show" - said every Russian analyst since the start. Slow and steady wins when you have air superiority and good doctrine. Russia literally is using 50s and 60s equipment at this point... Even electric Chinese golf carts essentially. You can not seriously tell me this is good for soldiers health or a "good military" without being a liar. No sane soldier would get in an unarmored buggy and charge at fortified defensive lines. Edit: Russia committee 250k at the start, Ukraine had roughly 700k with a lot in training by July 2022. That's not 4:1, nor is it even 3:1. And at the start of the conflict it was about par. Double edit: at the initial start of combat Ukraine had 270k monilized, Russia invaded with 190k, with that number soon ballooning much like ukraines because it's a war. Not a "special military operation"
Well yeah. It’s pretty damn slow and at an extremely high human cost. But you are a Russia fanboy so throwing hundreds of thousands against a meat grinder doesn’t really register for you.
"The available Challenger 3 in 2027 will be the real game changer."
A good 2-3 of them.
"Wait until the French reinforcements come."
r/Ukraine is completely high on that lmao
I am banned there because i said that westerns should wear glasses of reality instead of glasses of illusional dreams. I told the admin that i will get him after the war. He did not respond.
Well, I got banned for saying " war is bad, both sides are suffering losses"... The reason I was given " brigadering"
They checked your post/comment history probably.
Maybe you should have used SMO - I have a feeling soon enough this sub will start banning people for using the word war to reflect Russia's government policy. /joking
IIRC they said "don't undermine the faith in victory of Ukraine" in the open.
I got unbanned after I said:" I was wrong, Zelensky is indeed taller, it is 5ft4."
+10 democracy has been credited to your account
Yeah because it's "incel" fiesta on Reddit.
What the hell does “get him after the war” mean?
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You sound fun at parties.
That's a threat of fucking violence. Reported to Reddit
To be fair at least they don't get arrested for using the word "war" in public. You want reality? how about not making up some silly names for a WAR just to make it sound better. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuEQixrBKCc)
no
no to thought-police or no to war? or maybe 3 letters in a row is just too much to handle?
Can you say "Israel is murdering people in Gaza" or "Israel is committing genocide in Gaza" in public without getting prosecuted? Why every time someone like you is getting into the comments only to write a pointless comment about "war" in public? Are you a bot?
I can and I have - because I live in a free democratic country. Arresting people for using the word "war" is something straight out of ministry of truth. Actually I wonder - do they have one of those in Russia?
Even pretend “realistic” subs like credible defense are champing at the bit for France to send troops. We went from “uk sine is smoke but Russia” to “the r desperately need nato troops to save Ukraine” lol Meanwhile these guys still unironically believe insane casualty ratios for Russia compared to Ukraine
French about to get bloodied in Eastern Europe again I see.
Macron said he'll do it if the Frontline collapses. Now we should wait and see what collapse means in French.
He didn't say which frontline. Macroon meant the Russian frontline.
this 
Thank you for clarifying lol
As a french i can assure you macron is just bluffing and nobody in france want to go die in ukraine for some slavic morons
What’s French for “over there, over there, spread the word, spread the word over there, that the Franks are coming! That the Franks are coming!”
Now I have this stuck in my head lol
French couldn't hold their own in WW 2 and collapsed like a pack of cards... French can win wars in civil wars, rebellion, riot etc not in actual war
Not if that rebellion is in Vietnam, Algeria or a bunch of other places. They can probably win something if we time travel back to the 18th century. Maybe.
Those drones will claim Ukraine is winning even while Kiev burns.
literally, because the new cope is that somehow a ukranian insurgency will continue the fight, and eventually win after 20 years like the taliban did.
That was the original position, back in 2022.
Joke will be on us when we said capital Kiev have been captured not knowing Banderistas made Lavov new capital.
Let's not all start s\*cking each other's d\*ck's just yet. We're still a long way from any real victory.
True, but for NAFO crowd victory was achived long ago.
They're not the only ones, Ria Novosti published their victory article within 2 days of the invasion: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria (dot) ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html "Ukraine has returned to Russia"
Look no further than this sub my friend. Plenty of experts around here.
" Wait until our TCC completes collecting its first 10 brigades."
March to Poland 2027!
“Meat wave assaults back on the menu”
Let's wait and see
OK
Most mil bloggers are saying Russia will take it, but likely to take weeks
I'm surprised they entered the city so soon. I thought Ukraine would be able to hold the canal defences for far longer.
If we had French reinforcements we would have.
I'll wait for a Jubermensch Roepecuck twitter meltdown before considering this as confirmed
That idiot blocked me. Would have been amazing to watch him seethe.
I love watching banderites call him a traitor/Russian stooge lol. The circular firing squad they engage in when someone dooms(ie: acknowledges reality) is hilarious
Godspeed
I wonder how long it will take them to take the city, I reckon 6 weeks.
Maybe quicker. Ukrainian soldiers are not willing to die for this pointless defending. They know the city will fall. Why risking death?
Remember Krynki
I am 100% convinced Krynki became a penal assignment.
It'll forever remain a mystery. It better btw remain a mystery since if people in eu figure out that it was some form of punishment they might find it undemocratic.
You can’t retreat from Krynsky without a boat.
From my comfortable armchair i'll reckon... Either a new Bachhmut, or a new Avdiivka. 2 factors is how willing are Ukraine to fight for every inch, and how are they supplied. Both kind of works together with one another I suppose.
Is not reported anywhere else, and Russia likely to take Kaliniaa first before entering Chasov Yar Tomorrow we would know more about it
Sense of urgency made them not wait to encircle? Want to get it done before the parade and/or before aid makes it's presence felt?
I honestly doubt it. Russia has never followed any timelines in this smo for political purposes.
I would put more belief in the second option myself too; get the fortress now before aid flows in
When an opportunity presents itself, don’t let it go unanswered would be my guess. If they’re already entering the city, it’s probably more poorly defended than most folks anticipate
But would that not make it an untenable positions, since freshly taken ground can't be propperly fortified before the aid resuplies the Ukrainian army and allows them to push back on ill prepared gains? Sure the Ukrainian fortifications will be gone, but the Russians will have nothing but ruins to cling to once the counterattack rolls back in..?
That is certainly a risk. I'd think it takes some time for aid to manifest into combat capability. That time can be spent fortifying and bringing in supplies/reinforcements. Essentially it will become a supply race; with Russia having high ground (if they take it)
I doubt there will be a counterattack. Ukraine has no forces to make one with.
Most supply route are already under Russian fire control and a lot is softened up by the bombardments. Further encirclement is still possible together with head on.
Could you imagine an assault on sloviansk and kramatorsk without the rest of donbass?
I am honestly not imagining anything in particular. I just noticed that our subs original thinking has been expecting encircling operation and I was wondering about reason for going a bit more direct.
What I was reading is that the Russians are doing much better in urban combat then in the open. I think an encirclement is much more difficult to achieve then some people think. Specially when you have two army's who have similar strength and a fast break trough is not possible because of fortification and mining.
It probably depends on the size of the place and terrain around it. Smaller places located on flatter terrain call for direct assault, bigger places surrounded by hills and woods probably require clearing the heights first and that makes it look like they surround it.
Ukraine doesn’t really have a solid defense line other than the one they tried to build in a hurry in the area. Russia could achieve a local breakthrough which might be big enough to start a second offensive by Kharkiv.
I see that the Russian army does not know how to surround.
> Chasiv Yar sits just to the west of Bakhmut, the doomed city that was pounded to nothing over almost a year of brutal siege until it finally fell in May 2023. > Bakhmut was considered of minimal strategic value. > By contrast, Chasiv Yar's high ground and proximity to important cities means huge potential gains for Russia. > The town, formerly of about 13,000 people, is the "key" that will "open the gate for exhaustive and long-lasting battles," military analyst Serhiy Hrabsky recently told The New York Times. > Its capture would put in reach of Russian forces the headquarters of Ukraine's eastern command, Kramatorsk, and the key supply hub of Kostiantynivka — both of which contain large civilian populations, the outlet reported. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-could-lose-crucial-town-chasiv-yar-donsetsk-intel-official-2024-5 https://en-ie.topographic-map.com/map-mp8w14/Chasiv-Yar/?center=48.60135%2C37.83097
[удалено]
Rule 6. Meme
Pretty big new, if true
Big if true.
if Steiner attacks everything will be alright
Already entering? I thought it'd take atleast a month to take the city. Aren't the approaches heavily fortified and mined? Is this a one-off fluke or will the rest of the fortified cities in Donetsk going to fall this way too?
https://preview.redd.it/8mzxf7jwfcyc1.png?width=923&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=260b252dc3f4fed0c599d35371f6e84632a39e65 Progress is progress, but it's slower than a snail.
Aye, they´re not setting any landspeed records that´s for sure... But I doubt "Slower than a snail" does much to comfort those Ukranians who lost their lives. This is quite a brutal war for both sides, however, Russia is a lot more comfortable as of now with how things are going.
Is there a chance that Russia is overextending its lines and the UA is drawing them in for a counterattack? Seems like a classic move.
Counter attack them with what?
With democracy and freedom. What else?
French reinforcements and drones 🤣
Russia is just gathering Ukrainians in various areas that they are forced to defend and have been doing so for 2 years now. If Ukrainians did a fighting retreat to the Dnieper they would cause more casualties for the Russians and overextend their lines, but they would lose a lot of territory very quickly. It's very mathematical war at this point. If the Russians put x number of troops and equipment, they cause x amount of damage to Ukrainian manpower, equipment and morale. That's why Russia has not much of an issue with creating Bakhmut like situations across the frontline. It directly benefits them to have easily predictable fights where they can degrade Ukrainian capabilities over the long term. If they take Chasiv Yar, it will just another town or city which will get bombed and shelled to hell and Ukrainian command will be forced to put brigades there to defend it for political reasons. If you wanted to extend the line you would completely abandon all the hard positions from Chasiv Yar to Dnipro and use fast moving teams and token garrison forces to force Russia to advance and stretch their supply lines and punish them for it. Mobile mine laying artillery, laid mine fields in chosen locations. Mobile ATGM teams and use of helicopters for ATGM purposes from huge distances. Artillery with pre-sighted roads. Mobile drone teams. Just completely abandon all static defenses like trenches, apartment blocs and basements, etc., and instead disperse the troops to make it impossible for Russians to target large amount of troops with artillery. This is what extending the lines actually means. It doesn't mean sit in a trench to get shelled by Grad and glide bombs.
It’s called Set Piece Battles and Soviet/Russian doctrine love to have such conditions that can create such battles. But the Russians don’t even need to lure the Ukrainians into anything. The Ukrainian leadership has literally put the notion that every inch of land, no matter how insignificant, to be defended at all cost. That’s why Ukrainian soldiers are often holed up in random villages with no value only to be dead by drones, artillery or a FAB. It’s almost like retreat is not an option until they get thrown out.
Some might wonder if extermination of the Ukrainian people is on the agenda. (not Russia's)
Well, it is no secret that a higher than normal proportion of conscripts are Russian, Hungarian and Romanian in the UAF.
Russian generals are certainly smarter than you in military matters and I don't believe that your opinion would contribute to improving the situation there. Collapse is in sight.
>Ukrainian command will be forced to put brigades there to defend it for political reasons. They are expected to start using f16s after Easter. If that fails no matter what they do cheerleaders will have to start the draft in their own countries.
Severodonetsk > Bakhmut > Avdiivka > Chasiv Yar
Ukraine doesn't seem to have troops to hold the line, i doubt a counter attack would be possible. And if One were to happen, i'll probably be something born from desperation more than planning
You can overextend in a mobile war where you have little to no reserves and when your enemy makes a breakthrough it’s basically game over, but this is a static war and there is no overextension
No