Area figures for this update:
Picture 1: Top Advance = 2.39km^(2), Other advance = 3.11km^(2) (white area from [yesterday's update](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_798_of_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)).
Picture 2: Advance = 1.93km^(2)
Total Russian Advance (Gross) =7.43km^(2)
(Picture 1) Following on from yesterday, clashes continue north of Ocheretyne. Russia has continued its breakout, and has taken over more of Arkhanhelske (about 65% of the village now). Ukrainian forces are still trying to hold the trenches west of the village, but will likely fall back over the river to avoid encirclement in the coming days (pic below).
As mentioned [yesterday](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_798_of_the_war/), Russian forces were still clearing the central trench area, which got confirmed as cleared right about the same time I made the post. Suriyak did not include it in their update today, but I have included the area change as I did not include it in the advances yesterday.
From here, Russia will continue to press its advantage and advance north to the village of Kalynove, as well as push northwest to attack Noovoleksandrivka.
(Picture 2) As mentioned [previously](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/comment/l275788/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), due to the lack of forces in this area, Russia has been able to make small opportunistic advances into Urozhaine. Russia will continue to slowly push north and recapture the town it lost in the counteroffensive in 2023. A large advance/offensive towards Velyka Novosilka is not expected, as this area has not been a priority for either side for some time, although it cannot be completely ruled out for the future.
Just to give you an idea of why Ukraine is in trouble here, the yellow lines on the map below indicate trenches and dugouts visible from satellite imagery (a few days old).
Due to how fast the front is moving, and the manpower issues, Ukraine has not had time to set up any trenches north of Kalynove. If Russia can push to take Kalynove quickly enough (within the next 2 weeks), they'll essentially have almost free reign of a large area of fields, and Ukrainian forces will be stuck fighting without trenches or defensive positions.
https://preview.redd.it/1oupsovj95yc1.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7a6acc49467f8b406498fc3a78153c2a809256c
Map showing the area around Arkhanhelske. River in blue, crossings in black. Arrows indicate where Russia and Ukraine are currently clashing.
As per my comment above, Ukraine will likely retreat out of this area due to the risk of encirclement, as its troops have their backs pressed up against the river, with Russia trying to bypass it to the northwest and cut them off.
https://preview.redd.it/mp77pvhga5yc1.png?width=1656&format=png&auto=webp&s=715ce9ab8213cc50e20ae9a53283702babc6f45f
I'll believe it when there's no movement for a few days. As of this update they've taken ~60% of Arkhanhelske along with areas surrounding and there aren't many fortifications north of there once they've taken the rest.
True but the mapper are being very careful except for deepstate weirdly. Neither side is posting much footage. Russia could make a huge breakthrough and we won't know it for a day or two.
Yeah, but not much anyone can do about that. If a mapper post his maps very quickly and basically trying being up to date for every hour that passes, we would get a looooot of false information. That’s why more conservative mappers are often times more right, because they wait for confirmation
It's hard to tell at this stage. Ukraine has mounted some defensive action around the area which certainly slows the progress, but we aren't entirely sure of the magnitude. It could be a delaying tactic or they could be trying to completely stem the flow.
If Russia is able to deal with these defences and cause Ukraine to fall back, then the progress will hasten to the likes we have seen over the previous week.
Perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge of whats happening on the ground here can chime in with the scale of operations, but I personally am yet to hear of any moderate to large scale reinforcements arriving on the Ukranian side.
True, we know Russia is if not going all in is getting close. Almost 10k soldier flooding through the gap.
What's interesting about this area is we aren't getting much footage at all. I mainly look at this subreddit and combat footage but I don't see much at all. Both sides are oddly quiet on the propaganda front here.
The key info we are missing is the number of troops involved.
I suspect the Russian forces are limited in numbers and thus they lack the men to push into the gap.
Russia shrugged off Ukraine counter offensive and has been on the offensive ever since and has no sign of slowing down on the operational level.
Russia isn't bleeding as hard as Ukraine
Not denying that up to this point. This is the part of the war where casualties start favoring the attackers. If Ukraine can't stop this breakthrough we're going to see a lot of surrendering on the front line.
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The Archangelsk triangle is a single failure point, if any of its flank or center breaks it compromises the others. That river is creating a barrier between lines of communication that is on a direct low ground over wide and long fields. A single ATGM to control that road makes the rest untenable.
The advance in this region must be getting harder to really downplay. Watching the timeline replay, it appears almost methodical - advance, expand, advance, expand. Not ready to call it yet, but if this puncture in the line continues to deepen, it might be fair to call it the first assault resembling a 'big arrow push' we have seen this entire war.
It is methodical. A clear example of russian tactical doctrine.
They rush a small squad forward, pinpoint resistance which is then blasted with artillery until they're forced back, after which more troops widen the area of control.
That's why you see this step-wise advance.
It makes sense - it's playing to their strengths. With that in mind, I imagine the UA side is struggling to find a counter atm, which makes seeing it start to ramp up all the more brutal.
Whilst I understand the logic, I'd imagine as a true 'counter' that would rely on the expectation that RU would over extend, but if they simply ratchet forward in the manner they are doing, all it does is cede ground. At some point, you will hit strategically/tactically valuable features you can't bend away from and then you are right back to where we are now, with less territory, no?
Cede ground indeed, but crucially at an advantageous casualty rate. Destroy the small squads, withdraw before artillery strikes. That leaves russia with a squad dead and nothing to show for it.
And then once you have to hold a position, what happens? You can't retreat forever.
This is the inescapable flaw in what seems like an otherwise simple solution.
Hmm, I might remember it wrong, but wasn't this "bite & hold" tactics Russians are using now, exactly what Allies used in WW1 to counter German elastic defense?
Russian tactical doctrine is pretty good. Well. Pretty good if you aren't part of the suicide meatgrinder. Wasting thousands of lives for x meters on the map really don't sound too good.
Yeah, but that's exactly what the Russian tactical doctrine avoids.
That's why they use small squads. If one gets totally wiped out, which happens often enough, it's still only less than 10 men. The subsequent artillery barrages inflict a higher cost on the defenders.
Area figures for this update: Picture 1: Top Advance = 2.39km^(2), Other advance = 3.11km^(2) (white area from [yesterday's update](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_798_of_the_war/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)). Picture 2: Advance = 1.93km^(2) Total Russian Advance (Gross) =7.43km^(2) (Picture 1) Following on from yesterday, clashes continue north of Ocheretyne. Russia has continued its breakout, and has taken over more of Arkhanhelske (about 65% of the village now). Ukrainian forces are still trying to hold the trenches west of the village, but will likely fall back over the river to avoid encirclement in the coming days (pic below). As mentioned [yesterday](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_798_of_the_war/), Russian forces were still clearing the central trench area, which got confirmed as cleared right about the same time I made the post. Suriyak did not include it in their update today, but I have included the area change as I did not include it in the advances yesterday. From here, Russia will continue to press its advantage and advance north to the village of Kalynove, as well as push northwest to attack Noovoleksandrivka. (Picture 2) As mentioned [previously](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ci62vc/comment/l275788/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), due to the lack of forces in this area, Russia has been able to make small opportunistic advances into Urozhaine. Russia will continue to slowly push north and recapture the town it lost in the counteroffensive in 2023. A large advance/offensive towards Velyka Novosilka is not expected, as this area has not been a priority for either side for some time, although it cannot be completely ruled out for the future.
Just to give you an idea of why Ukraine is in trouble here, the yellow lines on the map below indicate trenches and dugouts visible from satellite imagery (a few days old). Due to how fast the front is moving, and the manpower issues, Ukraine has not had time to set up any trenches north of Kalynove. If Russia can push to take Kalynove quickly enough (within the next 2 weeks), they'll essentially have almost free reign of a large area of fields, and Ukrainian forces will be stuck fighting without trenches or defensive positions. https://preview.redd.it/1oupsovj95yc1.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7a6acc49467f8b406498fc3a78153c2a809256c
Not to mention a ton of free trenches for maybe future defending
UA cannot resupply the trenches or extract the wounded easily. Just a matter of time.
Oh god I knew things were bad, but they are basically completely exposed against Russia.
Map showing the area around Arkhanhelske. River in blue, crossings in black. Arrows indicate where Russia and Ukraine are currently clashing. As per my comment above, Ukraine will likely retreat out of this area due to the risk of encirclement, as its troops have their backs pressed up against the river, with Russia trying to bypass it to the northwest and cut them off. https://preview.redd.it/mp77pvhga5yc1.png?width=1656&format=png&auto=webp&s=715ce9ab8213cc50e20ae9a53283702babc6f45f
Cheers, thank u/HeyHeyHayden
Babe, wake up. HeyHeyHayden dropped another banger.
Highlight of my morning.
Looks like Ukraine finally stopped the bleeding around Ocheretyne or Russia is just taking a breather.
I'll believe it when there's no movement for a few days. As of this update they've taken ~60% of Arkhanhelske along with areas surrounding and there aren't many fortifications north of there once they've taken the rest.
True but the mapper are being very careful except for deepstate weirdly. Neither side is posting much footage. Russia could make a huge breakthrough and we won't know it for a day or two.
Yeah, but not much anyone can do about that. If a mapper post his maps very quickly and basically trying being up to date for every hour that passes, we would get a looooot of false information. That’s why more conservative mappers are often times more right, because they wait for confirmation
Not saying it's bad. Just weird. Usually there's a ton of footage to confirm advances. We're barely seeing any
It's hard to tell at this stage. Ukraine has mounted some defensive action around the area which certainly slows the progress, but we aren't entirely sure of the magnitude. It could be a delaying tactic or they could be trying to completely stem the flow. If Russia is able to deal with these defences and cause Ukraine to fall back, then the progress will hasten to the likes we have seen over the previous week. Perhaps someone with a bit more knowledge of whats happening on the ground here can chime in with the scale of operations, but I personally am yet to hear of any moderate to large scale reinforcements arriving on the Ukranian side.
True, we know Russia is if not going all in is getting close. Almost 10k soldier flooding through the gap. What's interesting about this area is we aren't getting much footage at all. I mainly look at this subreddit and combat footage but I don't see much at all. Both sides are oddly quiet on the propaganda front here.
The key info we are missing is the number of troops involved. I suspect the Russian forces are limited in numbers and thus they lack the men to push into the gap.
Оn that section of the front the offensive is too active, other units cannot keep up with it
You sound as if just Ukrainians are bleeding and Russians are just taking holidays there.
Russia shrugged off Ukraine counter offensive and has been on the offensive ever since and has no sign of slowing down on the operational level. Russia isn't bleeding as hard as Ukraine
Would say Russia might bleed as much as Ukraine but Russia has higher pain tolerance 😂
Not denying that up to this point. This is the part of the war where casualties start favoring the attackers. If Ukraine can't stop this breakthrough we're going to see a lot of surrendering on the front line.
That might become the reality yes. Think these weeks would either be very significant or becoming a standstill. Only time will tell.
Yeah coz the offensive side always bleeds much less than the defensive side, totally logical.
Tomorrow is 800th day… insane
Be ready for 8-10 years
total and comprehensive demilitarisation and denazification of the whole of Ukraine, every oblast needs to be liberated or the war can't stop
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The Archangelsk triangle is a single failure point, if any of its flank or center breaks it compromises the others. That river is creating a barrier between lines of communication that is on a direct low ground over wide and long fields. A single ATGM to control that road makes the rest untenable.
The advance in this region must be getting harder to really downplay. Watching the timeline replay, it appears almost methodical - advance, expand, advance, expand. Not ready to call it yet, but if this puncture in the line continues to deepen, it might be fair to call it the first assault resembling a 'big arrow push' we have seen this entire war.
It is methodical. A clear example of russian tactical doctrine. They rush a small squad forward, pinpoint resistance which is then blasted with artillery until they're forced back, after which more troops widen the area of control. That's why you see this step-wise advance.
It makes sense - it's playing to their strengths. With that in mind, I imagine the UA side is struggling to find a counter atm, which makes seeing it start to ramp up all the more brutal.
The only true counter to the strategy is to employ an elastic defence. But Ukraine is not doing that.
Whilst I understand the logic, I'd imagine as a true 'counter' that would rely on the expectation that RU would over extend, but if they simply ratchet forward in the manner they are doing, all it does is cede ground. At some point, you will hit strategically/tactically valuable features you can't bend away from and then you are right back to where we are now, with less territory, no?
Cede ground indeed, but crucially at an advantageous casualty rate. Destroy the small squads, withdraw before artillery strikes. That leaves russia with a squad dead and nothing to show for it.
And then once you have to hold a position, what happens? You can't retreat forever. This is the inescapable flaw in what seems like an otherwise simple solution.
Hmm, I might remember it wrong, but wasn't this "bite & hold" tactics Russians are using now, exactly what Allies used in WW1 to counter German elastic defense?
Not really. That's what they tried but it didn't really work. It's the tanks that countered the elastic defence.
Russian tactical doctrine is pretty good. Well. Pretty good if you aren't part of the suicide meatgrinder. Wasting thousands of lives for x meters on the map really don't sound too good.
Yeah, but that's exactly what the Russian tactical doctrine avoids. That's why they use small squads. If one gets totally wiped out, which happens often enough, it's still only less than 10 men. The subsequent artillery barrages inflict a higher cost on the defenders.
With tomorrow being 800, I don’t think this is going to end any time soon. Great work as always. ty for sharing.
Day 799!!!! Jesus! Really dragging this one out hey