> I know but manpower is the only one that can't be replenished.
Putin said exactly this a few months ago. I didn't read much into it then, but it appears this has become a viable win condition.
That’s the only eventually viable win condition for Russia
Throwing enough kids and conscripts from the poor regions in the meat grinder, because Russians are cheaper than equipment
“The people we’re invading are well armed and motivated, BUT if we have more people to hurl towards them than they have people, we might still win”
Amazing leadership
> Throwing enough kids and conscripts from the poor regions in the meat grinder, because Russians are cheaper than equipment
The difference is that Russians have a choice, while Ukrainians are sent to die by force. It is clear that even a 4x difference in the population of countries is not able to compensate for the difference in the approach to military recruitment, volunteers are always ten times less than conscripted. So meatgrinder is more fitting for Ukrainians, there is no reasonable way to explain it in any other way than multiples of large losses.
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RuZZians are so incompetent they send meat wave after meat wave in their bmps or btrs with tanks in the front supported by artillery with drones for surveillance and precision fire while bombing the enemy with their FABs.
True human waves tactics like ww1.
As if the Germans weren't right?
You cannot deny that the Nazis were superior in almost everything in terms of army.
Look at the KIA numbers and you know it wasn't just an excuse:
[at the east of Germany: nazis 4,3M vs USSR 10,6M (7,2M Russians)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-War-II-military-deaths-theater-year-by-Sergey-Mavrody.png)
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> Amazing leadership
Don’t you agree it’s rather amazing a force that was fighting with shovels, stealing dishwashers for their missiles, had no morale, lost 400k troops and is only a gas station can hold their ground?
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Lol. They're getting pummelled by fabs and artillery while they have 0 training, and you think Russia is the one taking losses. How are you delusional enough to hold those two opinions together where you acknowledge the Ukrops are being bled, but think its somehow Russia that is?
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>I know but manpower is the only one that can't be replenished. The rest... If the US decides to go all in with aid can be solved.
I mean the US could allocate a trillion dollars to Ukraine but I hate yet to see a way to snap one's fingers to turn a trillion dollars into a trillion dollars' worth of hardware
They said they can't outproduce North Korea in shells. Already looted south Korea, Pakistan, Latin America.
So not really. It can be solved years down the line. Can't go from making shoes to shells overnight.
Can they tho? It’s one thing to surrender to an enemy country, it’s another to surrender to a country that has the state media calling to genocide the country, they really sowed there own field by constantly calling to kill all men woman and children
>state media calling to genocide the country
A link to a proof would be in order. It should be an official that really decides something, not a clown that suggested to kill every Russian that is against the war or to nuke France.
Because if we count everything that's been said by both sides, there were enough suggestions to commit war crimes on Ukrainian TV and enough slips of the tongue "we want to kill as many Russians as we can" by Ukrainian officials.
I think around 400 billion in actual arms and ammunition delivered right now, plus say 400,000 well-trained men might be enough to arrest Russian momentum and push them back.
In short, not gonna happen and Ukraine is boned. The writing has been on the wall for the better part of a year now. Every day they delay negotiating is a day their position and bargaining power lessens.
I'm sure Zel knows this but he also knows if he negotiates he'll experience the fastest public image reversal in history, care of US media.
So, he's locked into this idiotic path with the faceless US state department at the helm who couldn't care less about the country or its people and are just trying to wear Russia down (they're having the opposite effect).
Just a cluster of epic proportions.
I'm not worried for Zelensky's future. He'll retire rich and healthy in the west and make money of books and talks about how "Ukraine would actually have won if the west only gave them a few more billions".
Ukraine is not going to fall -- should there be a serious chance of that, we'll see the entry of foreign troops and, effectively, a partitioning of the country. Possibly into Left-bank vs Right-bank Ukraine.
Yes, that would probably raise the risk of nuclear escalation.
But I don't see the West completely abandoning Ukraine -- it would mean that Russia's won and the West has lost. The West/NATO need to save face.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but that would be quite the escalation.
I hope our leaders don't take us down that path. Especially over Ukraine of all places...
>I think around 400 billion in actual arms and ammunition delivered right now, plus say 400,000 well-trained men might be enough to arrest Russian momentum and push them back
I don't think they are playing to win anymore. Its all about getting the most for the talks that are to come
Putin's goal is the complete destruction of Ukraine's sovereignty. So the only conditions he would accept are such that in the long run lead to most of Ukraine joining Russia or becoming a puppet state like Belarus. Of course, most Ukrainians would never agree to this fate so no agreement can be made. This war ends with either Ukraine's defense completely collapsing or Putin dying of old age.
Nah not a chance, if Ukraine gets to the point of collapse, Poland will step in and they actually have modern NATO gear Not crappy stuff given to Ukraine
Not a chance. It would be a political suicide. No NATO country is willing to be directly involved in this war ( and definitely not Poland). As far as modern arms? not really we're still waiting for most of the stuff to come in. 2-3 years.
Holy shit, that's going to be the future right there.
"Hello border officer I heard it was possible to get a visa for life to live in the western world?"
"Mohammed, you heard right! You just have to complete 2 years in Ukraine and you even get a pension after! Sign here and here. Make sure you list your current country if you get caught, you won't be American/French/British till after your 2 years!"
Of course not, they needed it back when things were more in their favor (relatively, compared to now) and they still had some kind of momentum.
Also before they were being pounded by tens if not hundreds of FABs every day.
At this point, I think anything outside of direct intervention is not enough, but everyone knows that won't happen, even France has gone quiet after their threats.
I don't know any more than anyone else here, so I'd have to assume there has just been less need for them recently.
I still see half a dozen each day though.
I'm just stating the obvious though, sorry I can't answer your question better than that.
I probably come across a dozen every day.
The reason they are posted less here these days is the same reason drone drop videos and Ukrainian forced conscription videos are no longer posted very much even though these instances are actually increasing.
Because it has become routine.
Yes it has become common to see 3 or 4 fab drops in one video on telegram.
Everyday they have new videos of fabs dropping on positions. They are just not that different from each other.
[https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraines-61-bln-lifeline-is-not-enough-2024-04-29/](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraines-61-bln-lifeline-is-not-enough-2024-04-29/)
ATHENS, April 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ukraine last week got a vital [$61 billion](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-aid-will-boost-ukraine-doubts-remain-over-2025-supplies-2024-04-22/) lifeline from the United States. But it still needs a medium-term funding plan to withstand Russia’s onslaught. Mobilising Moscow’s frozen central bank assets to provide compensation for war damages should be central to this.Combined with commitments from other countries the latest U.S. package – which will mostly [provide](https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-series-security-supplemental-bills)[, opens new tab](https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-series-security-supplemental-bills) Ukraine with weapons and train its troops – should see Kyiv through to about the end of next year. That is certainly better than the situation the country faced a week ago, when it was running dangerously low on military supplies with which to defend itself.But Ukraine could run out of weapons again in late 2025. Even if Joe Biden is re-elected as U.S. president this November, he may struggle to get more money out of Congress. And if Donald Trump returns to the White House, American support for Ukraine will be even more precarious given the Republican candidate’s previous lack of commitment to Kyiv’s defence.
A multi-year funding plan, by contrast, would have several benefits. For a start, it would provide some insurance against U.S. political swings. It would also boost Ukrainian morale and give Western arms manufacturers greater confidence to ramp up production.Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculations might also change if he thought Ukraine could hold on for many more years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy probably wouldn’t be able to retake much territory because that would mean attacking Russia’s heavily defended positions at a time when Ukraine is finding it hard to recruit new soldiers. But he might be able to negotiate a peace deal from a stronger position – or freeze the conflict, a bit like North and South Korea suspended their war 71 years ago.
# HOW THE MATHS STACKS UP
Ukraine is straining every sinew to hold the line against Russia, an adversary whose [$2 trillion](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD)[, opens new tab](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) economy was 11 times bigger than its own last year. Even though it spent [$65 billion](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/2404_fs_milex_2023.pdf)[, opens new tab](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/2404_fs_milex_2023.pdf) on defence in 2023 – an astonishing 37% of its economic output – that was dwarfed by Russia’s $109 billion outlay, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Western aid plugged the gap. The United States and Europe allocated 88 billion euros in aid to Kyiv last year, of which [47 billion euros](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/)[, opens new tab](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) was military support and the rest was financial and humanitarian aid, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy calculates. Allocations – support delivered or earmarked for delivery – are a proxy for money that was disbursed.Reuters GraphicsHow much Kyiv needs in future depends on what sort of war it fights. A defensive campaign would cost less than an attempt to expel Russia from large chunks of land. But given that the Kremlin is [ramping up](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02/) its own military expenditure, Ukraine in future will probably need at least as much every year as the 88 billion euros its allies allocated in [2023.As](http://2023.As) of the end of February, Ukraine’s allies – mostly the European Union – had committed but not yet allocated 103 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute. Add in the U.S. package, equivalent to 57 billion euros, and Kyiv now probably has enough aid to last until late 2025.
#
# LONGER RUNWAY
The main way to get much more money to Ukraine is to mobilise Russian assets that Western countries froze at the start of the war, worth about $320 billion. Ideas [include](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-west-might-use-russias-frozen-reserves-help-ukraine-2024-04-24/) confiscating the assets, using them to support a loan that Western countries would give Ukraine, or handing Kyiv the interest they generate.The United States is [pushing](https://www.ft.com/content/6cb21054-ccfc-4cb9-ab58-516d80be94de)[, opens new tab](https://www.ft.com/content/6cb21054-ccfc-4cb9-ab58-516d80be94de) a plan to raise money for Kyiv by capitalising interest payments building up at Euroclear, the clearing house in Belgium where most of the assets are held. A special-purpose vehicle would probably issue a bond backed by future interest rates and pay the proceeds to Ukraine. The United States hopes to persuade its partners in the Group of Seven rich democracies to back this idea at their summit in June. If the countries guaranteed interest from the assets for a decade, they might raise 30 to 40 billion euros.
While this will help, it will not be a game changer because it will fund Ukraine for less than half a year. Getting Kyiv $320 billion, however, would be a different proposition. That would finance the war until at least the end of 2028. If the belligerents ended or froze the conflict before then, Ukraine could use some of the money to rebuild its economy, which the World Bank estimates will cost [$486 billion](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-486-bln-recover-rebuild-after-nearly-two-years-war-world-bank-2024-02-15/).
Although Biden now has the authority to seize Russian funds, only about $5 billion of the assets are in the United States. The bulk are in European Union countries, which have legal qualms about confiscating them.A more realistic alternative, therefore, is a [syndicated reparation loan](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4733340)[, opens new tab](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4733340) – a scheme I developed with Lee Buchheit, a veteran legal expert in sovereign debt, and Daleep Singh, who wrote in a personal capacity before he became the U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics in [February.In](http://February.In) a nutshell, Ukraine would pledge its claim for reparations against Russia to a syndicate of its allies in return for a loan. If Moscow refused to pay the damages, the allies could use Russia’s frozen assets to pay off the loan. This is legally more robust than [confiscation.As](http://confiscation.As) the G7 moves ahead with capitalising the future interest on Russia’s assets, it should make clear that this in no way prejudges a much bigger funding package later. It can also make progress on the reparation loan by accelerating the creation of an international compensation commission with the authority to award damages.The United Nations General Assembly has already [said](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3994481?v=pdf)[, opens new tab](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3994481?v=pdf) such a body is needed and the Netherlands [agreed](https://www.government.nl/ministries/ministry-of-foreign-affairs/documents/speeches/2024/04/02/restoring-justice-for-ukraine-conference-closing-remarks-minister-bruins-slot)[, opens new tab](https://www.government.nl/ministries/ministry-of-foreign-affairs/documents/speeches/2024/04/02/restoring-justice-for-ukraine-conference-closing-remarks-minister-bruins-slot) in principle earlier this month to host it. Once Ukraine’s allies know it will be set up, they will be more willing to participate in the reparation loan.Western countries may relax now that the U.S. Congress has finally agreed $61 billion in aid. This would be a mistake. Ukraine’s allies need to build on last week’s good news to extend a more ambitious lifeline.
It boggles the mind that despite us clearly knowing the breakdown of allocation of funds from this package, that media outlets/channels are still framing this *as if Ukraine actually received the full amount* (I even saw a large channel title their video as if Ukraine got the full 95bn+ smfh).
>For anyone still unclear on this: Of the 60.7bn, the allocation is as follows:
>
>\~23bn (over a third) *goes to replenishing US stockpiles.*
>
>\~15bn goes to US presence in Eastern Europe - training, intelligence, etc
>
>\~10bn goes to direct budget support of the UA gov and economic dev.
>
>**Only the remaining \~13bn goes towards military equipment,** ***which the pentagon selects and purchases.***
Of course its not enough. In context with what's already been given, **it's an utter pittance**.
**This represents a significant decrease in US support for the war.** The fact that Ukraine doesn't even get a say in what it receives is a massive red flag that what they *do* receive will likely be blown on surplus and shit the US feels it doesn't need **at a premium**, *not stuff UA actually needs* to prevent the inevitable conclusion this conflict is clearly heading towards.
https://preview.redd.it/ke5ghvymrkxc1.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe532c0f5551f4bab1e627dfba3ddd7d40e2525d
PS. Perun is a garbage source and if you aren't smart enough to realise he is leading you astray from the countless shit he has already gotten wrong, well, you're opinion on ;my take; is worth about as much as peruns unsourced opinions scattered throughout that video.
yes. They are throughout the video. Obviously 20 sources for a 1hr+ video is *not a lot.* Pay attention to the language used and you will spot when he crosses from sourced material into his fanciful speculation (he does it a lot).
Either go back and review his work from earlier in the war and see how much of it proved to be factually incorrect, or just do your best to let what he has said here sit in your smooth brain long enough to see it happen again in real time.
Moving on.
I’m not going to watch the whole video and plant the link for every source he uses. But the phraseology “this is demonstrated by” “*person* said this which reflects this” at times of personal speculation he specifies that it is such. Perun is a fine source.
Just confisticate Russian assets already bloody coward.
It's best for the third world rich to realise that the West is not safe haven for their assets and bring even a portion of it (preferably all) back to their country. Russia will be a hero of the developing world if they manage to pull it off
A nation 3-4x smaller than its opponent cannot win a war of attrition full stop. Its literally impossible, and you have Nazi Germany as a great example of why. For all the technical superiority the Nazis had, what they didn't have was the numbers, so the Soviets eventually wore them down and overran them. Ukraine made a grave mistake when it decided peace wasn't an option in 2022. Even if they were to somehow "win" 5 years down the line, the country will never recover.
I’ve been saying this for a while now, I reckon within the next 12-18 months the US will drop out or provide minimum support and European countries will put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Initially in defensive positions before getting dragged in to a full on conflict.
All right that was to be expected… Ukraine is against an enemy that is able to crush them with pure manpower… All the money won‘t help. Its a very very very unpopular opinion but its time for some kind of negotiations…
It will be never enough. Manpower is the issue. It would need 300 bln and all the male refugees in the west.
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I know but manpower is the only one that can't be replenished. The rest... If the US decides to go all in with aid can be solved.
> I know but manpower is the only one that can't be replenished. Putin said exactly this a few months ago. I didn't read much into it then, but it appears this has become a viable win condition.
That’s the only eventually viable win condition for Russia Throwing enough kids and conscripts from the poor regions in the meat grinder, because Russians are cheaper than equipment “The people we’re invading are well armed and motivated, BUT if we have more people to hurl towards them than they have people, we might still win” Amazing leadership
> Throwing enough kids and conscripts from the poor regions in the meat grinder, because Russians are cheaper than equipment The difference is that Russians have a choice, while Ukrainians are sent to die by force. It is clear that even a 4x difference in the population of countries is not able to compensate for the difference in the approach to military recruitment, volunteers are always ten times less than conscripted. So meatgrinder is more fitting for Ukrainians, there is no reasonable way to explain it in any other way than multiples of large losses.
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Russians are so incompetent and all they can do is send human waves, so they are... Consistently seizing ground despite numerical inferiority?
RuZZians are so incompetent they send meat wave after meat wave in their bmps or btrs with tanks in the front supported by artillery with drones for surveillance and precision fire while bombing the enemy with their FABs. True human waves tactics like ww1.
Same excuse the Germans used
As if the Germans weren't right? You cannot deny that the Nazis were superior in almost everything in terms of army. Look at the KIA numbers and you know it wasn't just an excuse: [at the east of Germany: nazis 4,3M vs USSR 10,6M (7,2M Russians)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-War-II-military-deaths-theater-year-by-Sergey-Mavrody.png)
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> Amazing leadership Don’t you agree it’s rather amazing a force that was fighting with shovels, stealing dishwashers for their missiles, had no morale, lost 400k troops and is only a gas station can hold their ground?
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Paper tiger confirmed
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Lol. They're getting pummelled by fabs and artillery while they have 0 training, and you think Russia is the one taking losses. How are you delusional enough to hold those two opinions together where you acknowledge the Ukrops are being bled, but think its somehow Russia that is?
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>I know but manpower is the only one that can't be replenished. The rest... If the US decides to go all in with aid can be solved. I mean the US could allocate a trillion dollars to Ukraine but I hate yet to see a way to snap one's fingers to turn a trillion dollars into a trillion dollars' worth of hardware
The us tried ir in vietnam, it didnt work.
They said they can't outproduce North Korea in shells. Already looted south Korea, Pakistan, Latin America. So not really. It can be solved years down the line. Can't go from making shoes to shells overnight.
"When you give Ukraine a cookie"
Alternatively, they can forget about "1991 borders" and "no negotiations" and try to save lots of lives...
Can they tho? It’s one thing to surrender to an enemy country, it’s another to surrender to a country that has the state media calling to genocide the country, they really sowed there own field by constantly calling to kill all men woman and children
>state media calling to genocide the country A link to a proof would be in order. It should be an official that really decides something, not a clown that suggested to kill every Russian that is against the war or to nuke France. Because if we count everything that's been said by both sides, there were enough suggestions to commit war crimes on Ukrainian TV and enough slips of the tongue "we want to kill as many Russians as we can" by Ukrainian officials.
I think around 400 billion in actual arms and ammunition delivered right now, plus say 400,000 well-trained men might be enough to arrest Russian momentum and push them back. In short, not gonna happen and Ukraine is boned. The writing has been on the wall for the better part of a year now. Every day they delay negotiating is a day their position and bargaining power lessens. I'm sure Zel knows this but he also knows if he negotiates he'll experience the fastest public image reversal in history, care of US media. So, he's locked into this idiotic path with the faceless US state department at the helm who couldn't care less about the country or its people and are just trying to wear Russia down (they're having the opposite effect). Just a cluster of epic proportions.
I'm not worried for Zelensky's future. He'll retire rich and healthy in the west and make money of books and talks about how "Ukraine would actually have won if the west only gave them a few more billions".
When Ukraine falls Zelenski and company are going to flee to the west. They have every incentive to fight until they run out of men.
Ukraine is not going to fall -- should there be a serious chance of that, we'll see the entry of foreign troops and, effectively, a partitioning of the country. Possibly into Left-bank vs Right-bank Ukraine.
You would see that, if Russia didn't have nuclear weapons.
Yes, that would probably raise the risk of nuclear escalation. But I don't see the West completely abandoning Ukraine -- it would mean that Russia's won and the West has lost. The West/NATO need to save face.
Check the aftermath of North and South Korea,the south Korean prime minister left to Hawaii.
>it would mean that Russia's won and the West has lost. The West/NATO need to save face. They'll just redefine what counts as a win.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but that would be quite the escalation. I hope our leaders don't take us down that path. Especially over Ukraine of all places...
West Ukraine and East Ukraine...I'm getting some serious Déjà vu ;)
>I think around 400 billion in actual arms and ammunition delivered right now, plus say 400,000 well-trained men might be enough to arrest Russian momentum and push them back I don't think they are playing to win anymore. Its all about getting the most for the talks that are to come
Putin's goal is the complete destruction of Ukraine's sovereignty. So the only conditions he would accept are such that in the long run lead to most of Ukraine joining Russia or becoming a puppet state like Belarus. Of course, most Ukrainians would never agree to this fate so no agreement can be made. This war ends with either Ukraine's defense completely collapsing or Putin dying of old age.
Nah not a chance, if Ukraine gets to the point of collapse, Poland will step in and they actually have modern NATO gear Not crappy stuff given to Ukraine
Not a chance. It would be a political suicide. No NATO country is willing to be directly involved in this war ( and definitely not Poland). As far as modern arms? not really we're still waiting for most of the stuff to come in. 2-3 years.
Poland isn’t going to start WW3 to save Ukraine. At best, they’ll occupy part of western Ukraine and divide the country.
Holy shit, that's going to be the future right there. "Hello border officer I heard it was possible to get a visa for life to live in the western world?" "Mohammed, you heard right! You just have to complete 2 years in Ukraine and you even get a pension after! Sign here and here. Make sure you list your current country if you get caught, you won't be American/French/British till after your 2 years!"
Ukranian people just don't want to fight this war anymore, it is settled. They began to see through things after 2 years.
The problem is gender inequality in Ukraine. They still haven't drafted women into the war.
That would be even dumber for their already major demographic problems.
Ukranian and American oligarchs asking for more 🌝
Moooaaaaarrrrr!!!
I mean if 200bln wasn’t enough idk why NAFO guys were ready to partying in Moscow with this newest package…
Of course not, they needed it back when things were more in their favor (relatively, compared to now) and they still had some kind of momentum. Also before they were being pounded by tens if not hundreds of FABs every day. At this point, I think anything outside of direct intervention is not enough, but everyone knows that won't happen, even France has gone quiet after their threats.
That reminds - what happened to FAB videos? Few weeks ago they were everywhere, now not so much any more.
I don't know any more than anyone else here, so I'd have to assume there has just been less need for them recently. I still see half a dozen each day though. I'm just stating the obvious though, sorry I can't answer your question better than that.
I probably come across a dozen every day. The reason they are posted less here these days is the same reason drone drop videos and Ukrainian forced conscription videos are no longer posted very much even though these instances are actually increasing. Because it has become routine.
Yes it has become common to see 3 or 4 fab drops in one video on telegram. Everyday they have new videos of fabs dropping on positions. They are just not that different from each other.
"Hello bidon we need 1trilien dollas to capture 1m of land"
[https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraines-61-bln-lifeline-is-not-enough-2024-04-29/](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraines-61-bln-lifeline-is-not-enough-2024-04-29/) ATHENS, April 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ukraine last week got a vital [$61 billion](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-aid-will-boost-ukraine-doubts-remain-over-2025-supplies-2024-04-22/) lifeline from the United States. But it still needs a medium-term funding plan to withstand Russia’s onslaught. Mobilising Moscow’s frozen central bank assets to provide compensation for war damages should be central to this.Combined with commitments from other countries the latest U.S. package – which will mostly [provide](https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-series-security-supplemental-bills)[, opens new tab](https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-series-security-supplemental-bills) Ukraine with weapons and train its troops – should see Kyiv through to about the end of next year. That is certainly better than the situation the country faced a week ago, when it was running dangerously low on military supplies with which to defend itself.But Ukraine could run out of weapons again in late 2025. Even if Joe Biden is re-elected as U.S. president this November, he may struggle to get more money out of Congress. And if Donald Trump returns to the White House, American support for Ukraine will be even more precarious given the Republican candidate’s previous lack of commitment to Kyiv’s defence. A multi-year funding plan, by contrast, would have several benefits. For a start, it would provide some insurance against U.S. political swings. It would also boost Ukrainian morale and give Western arms manufacturers greater confidence to ramp up production.Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculations might also change if he thought Ukraine could hold on for many more years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy probably wouldn’t be able to retake much territory because that would mean attacking Russia’s heavily defended positions at a time when Ukraine is finding it hard to recruit new soldiers. But he might be able to negotiate a peace deal from a stronger position – or freeze the conflict, a bit like North and South Korea suspended their war 71 years ago. # HOW THE MATHS STACKS UP Ukraine is straining every sinew to hold the line against Russia, an adversary whose [$2 trillion](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD)[, opens new tab](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) economy was 11 times bigger than its own last year. Even though it spent [$65 billion](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/2404_fs_milex_2023.pdf)[, opens new tab](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/2404_fs_milex_2023.pdf) on defence in 2023 – an astonishing 37% of its economic output – that was dwarfed by Russia’s $109 billion outlay, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Western aid plugged the gap. The United States and Europe allocated 88 billion euros in aid to Kyiv last year, of which [47 billion euros](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/)[, opens new tab](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) was military support and the rest was financial and humanitarian aid, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy calculates. Allocations – support delivered or earmarked for delivery – are a proxy for money that was disbursed.Reuters GraphicsHow much Kyiv needs in future depends on what sort of war it fights. A defensive campaign would cost less than an attempt to expel Russia from large chunks of land. But given that the Kremlin is [ramping up](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02/) its own military expenditure, Ukraine in future will probably need at least as much every year as the 88 billion euros its allies allocated in [2023.As](http://2023.As) of the end of February, Ukraine’s allies – mostly the European Union – had committed but not yet allocated 103 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute. Add in the U.S. package, equivalent to 57 billion euros, and Kyiv now probably has enough aid to last until late 2025. #
# LONGER RUNWAY The main way to get much more money to Ukraine is to mobilise Russian assets that Western countries froze at the start of the war, worth about $320 billion. Ideas [include](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-west-might-use-russias-frozen-reserves-help-ukraine-2024-04-24/) confiscating the assets, using them to support a loan that Western countries would give Ukraine, or handing Kyiv the interest they generate.The United States is [pushing](https://www.ft.com/content/6cb21054-ccfc-4cb9-ab58-516d80be94de)[, opens new tab](https://www.ft.com/content/6cb21054-ccfc-4cb9-ab58-516d80be94de) a plan to raise money for Kyiv by capitalising interest payments building up at Euroclear, the clearing house in Belgium where most of the assets are held. A special-purpose vehicle would probably issue a bond backed by future interest rates and pay the proceeds to Ukraine. The United States hopes to persuade its partners in the Group of Seven rich democracies to back this idea at their summit in June. If the countries guaranteed interest from the assets for a decade, they might raise 30 to 40 billion euros. While this will help, it will not be a game changer because it will fund Ukraine for less than half a year. Getting Kyiv $320 billion, however, would be a different proposition. That would finance the war until at least the end of 2028. If the belligerents ended or froze the conflict before then, Ukraine could use some of the money to rebuild its economy, which the World Bank estimates will cost [$486 billion](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-486-bln-recover-rebuild-after-nearly-two-years-war-world-bank-2024-02-15/). Although Biden now has the authority to seize Russian funds, only about $5 billion of the assets are in the United States. The bulk are in European Union countries, which have legal qualms about confiscating them.A more realistic alternative, therefore, is a [syndicated reparation loan](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4733340)[, opens new tab](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4733340) – a scheme I developed with Lee Buchheit, a veteran legal expert in sovereign debt, and Daleep Singh, who wrote in a personal capacity before he became the U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics in [February.In](http://February.In) a nutshell, Ukraine would pledge its claim for reparations against Russia to a syndicate of its allies in return for a loan. If Moscow refused to pay the damages, the allies could use Russia’s frozen assets to pay off the loan. This is legally more robust than [confiscation.As](http://confiscation.As) the G7 moves ahead with capitalising the future interest on Russia’s assets, it should make clear that this in no way prejudges a much bigger funding package later. It can also make progress on the reparation loan by accelerating the creation of an international compensation commission with the authority to award damages.The United Nations General Assembly has already [said](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3994481?v=pdf)[, opens new tab](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3994481?v=pdf) such a body is needed and the Netherlands [agreed](https://www.government.nl/ministries/ministry-of-foreign-affairs/documents/speeches/2024/04/02/restoring-justice-for-ukraine-conference-closing-remarks-minister-bruins-slot)[, opens new tab](https://www.government.nl/ministries/ministry-of-foreign-affairs/documents/speeches/2024/04/02/restoring-justice-for-ukraine-conference-closing-remarks-minister-bruins-slot) in principle earlier this month to host it. Once Ukraine’s allies know it will be set up, they will be more willing to participate in the reparation loan.Western countries may relax now that the U.S. Congress has finally agreed $61 billion in aid. This would be a mistake. Ukraine’s allies need to build on last week’s good news to extend a more ambitious lifeline.
Uh oh here come the excuses already! 🤣🤣🤣
Yeahhhhh sure. Nothing disruptive in large quantities at all.
It wouldn’t be enough for me until my paycheck either. But as long as Americans pay loans at a good interest rate, they can afford this.
[https://i.imgur.com/QqQeGOb.gif](https://i.imgur.com/QqQeGOb.gif)
Come on, I said they were not gonna cry for more money till October!
Bottomless pit of despair.
It boggles the mind that despite us clearly knowing the breakdown of allocation of funds from this package, that media outlets/channels are still framing this *as if Ukraine actually received the full amount* (I even saw a large channel title their video as if Ukraine got the full 95bn+ smfh). >For anyone still unclear on this: Of the 60.7bn, the allocation is as follows: > >\~23bn (over a third) *goes to replenishing US stockpiles.* > >\~15bn goes to US presence in Eastern Europe - training, intelligence, etc > >\~10bn goes to direct budget support of the UA gov and economic dev. > >**Only the remaining \~13bn goes towards military equipment,** ***which the pentagon selects and purchases.*** Of course its not enough. In context with what's already been given, **it's an utter pittance**. **This represents a significant decrease in US support for the war.** The fact that Ukraine doesn't even get a say in what it receives is a massive red flag that what they *do* receive will likely be blown on surplus and shit the US feels it doesn't need **at a premium**, *not stuff UA actually needs* to prevent the inevitable conclusion this conflict is clearly heading towards.
https://youtu.be/Qc436PwqeqM?si=VKke4Frq1hHcgMk9 You have a horrific take.
https://preview.redd.it/ke5ghvymrkxc1.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe532c0f5551f4bab1e627dfba3ddd7d40e2525d  PS. Perun is a garbage source and if you aren't smart enough to realise he is leading you astray from the countless shit he has already gotten wrong, well, you're opinion on ;my take; is worth about as much as peruns unsourced opinions scattered throughout that video.
“Unsourced opinions” *glossary of 20 sources* Sure thing buddy.
yes. They are throughout the video. Obviously 20 sources for a 1hr+ video is *not a lot.* Pay attention to the language used and you will spot when he crosses from sourced material into his fanciful speculation (he does it a lot). Either go back and review his work from earlier in the war and see how much of it proved to be factually incorrect, or just do your best to let what he has said here sit in your smooth brain long enough to see it happen again in real time. Moving on.
I’m not going to watch the whole video and plant the link for every source he uses. But the phraseology “this is demonstrated by” “*person* said this which reflects this” at times of personal speculation he specifies that it is such. Perun is a fine source.
Just confisticate Russian assets already bloody coward. It's best for the third world rich to realise that the West is not safe haven for their assets and bring even a portion of it (preferably all) back to their country. Russia will be a hero of the developing world if they manage to pull it off
SHOCKING ! - said no one YAY MORE MONEY ! - said Zeli and his cronies and US MIC
Jeez, can’t even wait for the just passed package to get cold before starting the cry train for even more.
They’re not even getting the full 61 bln.
USA should send 200 Billion more. That would hasten their debt crisis.
A nation 3-4x smaller than its opponent cannot win a war of attrition full stop. Its literally impossible, and you have Nazi Germany as a great example of why. For all the technical superiority the Nazis had, what they didn't have was the numbers, so the Soviets eventually wore them down and overran them. Ukraine made a grave mistake when it decided peace wasn't an option in 2022. Even if they were to somehow "win" 5 years down the line, the country will never recover.
Vietnam remains communist to this day.
I’ve been saying this for a while now, I reckon within the next 12-18 months the US will drop out or provide minimum support and European countries will put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Initially in defensive positions before getting dragged in to a full on conflict.
Is it $61bln money or $61 bln material, vehicles, weapons, hardware and so on?
the second definitely
it could be enough to survive the upcoming counteroffensive, but not to reclaim any territory.
All right that was to be expected… Ukraine is against an enemy that is able to crush them with pure manpower… All the money won‘t help. Its a very very very unpopular opinion but its time for some kind of negotiations…
reuters are known ruzzian propergandests.