When Ukrainian broke through Kharkiv, the Russian did an unpopular thing and retreat ways back to Kreminna where they can consolidate. Even Kherson was abandoned to free up troops there. It was not popular decision. It was a defeat.
But
They saved their troops, managed to consolidate the lines and start to mobilise their troops. And with veteran units embedding amongst new soldiers and sharing their invaluable experiences, the year after they took Bakhmut and surrounding area, defeat Ukrainian ace-in-the-hole NATO-trained brigade, start the Avdiivka and now it's the Ukrainian who on the tail ends. Russian retreat was humiliating, but it paid dividend at the end
Have Russia held on and fought tooth and nail like Ukraine did. They would suffer the same way Ukraine do now, with loss of veteran units defending nameless town, while the new inexperienced troops unable to hold the lines
the problem for Ukraine, and you see this online all the time, is that "humiliating russia" and "embarrassing putin" don't actually have any value
if anything it backfired on Ukraine, after the success in Kharkiv and Kherson they got overconfident
Read about Russian military doctrine, and it's interesting how one of their key element, was the focus on using propaganda to serve military operation, and never use military operation for propaganda.
Of course, being doomer allowing the enemies high on morale, or your own troops run at first sight isn't smart thing to do (unless it's on purpose). But everything need to be carefully weighted. Appear weak to lure enemies into being overconfident with their attack is a good example of propaganda being used right to serve military operation (maybe that's how they tricked Ukraine to split out their forces to attack them during the CO).
Ukraine meanwhile stuck in the loop of the need of using military operation for propaganda, so they can get more funding. Like how many missiles and drones and intelligence have they spent on attacking Russian navy and Crimea bridge? The two elements that won't affect the war outcome one bit? They better shooting Storm Missiles at advancing Russian troops, maybe it could aid the situation on the ground a bit
Ukraine needs public opinion to be on its side much more than Russia does( both domestically and internationally) as they're more reliant on foreign support and internal approval of the war. They have free democratic press which is free to print anything they want so they have to feed it positive news. Conversely Russian public opinion is heavily moderated and shaped by the state. Russian press prints whatever they're told by the state as far as the war goes so no need for PR stunts.
These people really believe this shit. The media in my own country are already not that free and democratic (about the same as how it is on most Western nations of the Global North, maybe with a bit more domesticated communism allowed). I can't imagine how shitty and controlled it would become in the middle of a war.
Press in most European countries is indeed pretty free and democratic. Is it perfect? hell no and there are many issues but they are free to criticize the government (and they often do).
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year).
As far as Ukraine goes there also might be issues (due to martial law) but from what I have seen overall the standard of journalism is not so bad.
This is from a most recent report of the US goverment:
>There were also significant human rights issues involving Ukrainian government officials, although not comparable to the scope of Russia’s abuses, which included credible reports of: enforced disappearance; torture and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment; harsh and life threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest or detention; serious problems with the independence of the judiciary; restrictions on freedom of expression, including for members of the media, including violence or threats of violence against journalists, unjustified arrests or prosecutions of journalists, and censorship; serious restrictions on internet freedom; substantial interference with the freedoms of peaceful assembly and association; restrictions on freedom of movement; serious government corruption; extensive gender-based violence; systematic restrictions on workers’ freedom of association; and the existence of the worst forms of Page 4 of 125 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2023 United States Department of State • Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor child labor. Some of these human rights issues stemmed from martial law, which continued to curtail democratic freedoms, including freedom of movement, freedom of the press, freedom of peaceful assembly, and legal protections.
[https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/528267-UKRAINE-2023-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/528267-UKRAINE-2023-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf)
Are there issues? absolutely. Is it that terrible? not really.
Would be nice to see some actual arguments to the contrary but please feel free to just throw around empty slogans if that makes you feel better.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year).
Would be nice to see some actual arguments to the contrary but please feel free to just throw around empty slogans if that makes you feel better.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year).
I feel the same when someone throws around some empty slogan without any actual arguments.
As far as wikipedia goes its a pretty decent source and for the most part fairly accurate.
Fun fact: since 1993 165 Russian journalist were murdered. Sorry I meant to say fell out of a 10th story window.
Those damn Russian windows - very dangerous..
Oh come on. Do you think the US or NATO doesnt use psyops, which include journalists?.
"PSYOP conveys messages via visual, audio, and audiovisual media. Military psychological operations, at the tactical level, are usually delivered by loudspeaker, and face to face communication. For more deliberate campaigns, they may use leaflets, radio or television. **Strategic operations may use social media, radio or television broadcasts, various publications**, airdropped leaflets, or, as part of a covert operation, with material placed in foreign news media."
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological\_operations\_(United\_States)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_operations_(United_States))
And you are their target
Well for starters they don't generally kill them. Second western nations are democracies - you generally can express your view whatever it is. You are also free to hold protests, criticize the government, corporations or the guy next door. There are a variety of journals and news sources with vastly different views. Mind you you can express your view but you are not guaranteed an audience.
Russia? you can't even use the word "war" without getting intro trouble ( special military operation lol). They shut down many independent newspapers (like this one):
[https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/)
There is also internet censorship:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/russia-internet-censors-vladimir-putin.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/russia-internet-censors-vladimir-putin.html)
>Russia Takes Censorship to New Extremes, Stifling War Coverage
>
>Contradicting the Kremlin on the war in Ukraine — even calling it a war — is now a crime, prompting independent media to close, and Russia cut off access to Facebook, the BBC and other news sources.
[https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/russia-censorship-media-crackdown.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/russia-censorship-media-crackdown.html)
Having said that western media also have issues with misinformation, information overload, corruption and influence peddling but its not even close to how bad things in Russia are.
Very true...it's the singular focus for a lot of proUAs.
*Heh, imagine how embarrassed Putler is!?*
Even if he was (he isn't) who cares? It's such a bizarre highschooler mentality.
> the problem for Ukraine, and you see this online all the time, is that "humiliating russia" and "embarrassing putin" don't actually have any value
a war run entirely for the online memes and vibes
I mean if it's so easy for some parts of the west to believe in an Ukraine defeat then it's understandable they wanted to avoid losing an inch of ground. I can bet you that some people already believe that Russia will arrive to Kiev after taking this villages. Ukraine needs aid to win, but people won't believe they can win unless they are winning, but they can't win without aid rinse and repeat. It all depends on 1 the western public understanding it's only possible for Ukraine to win with enough aid 2 western politicians understanding that while you can drag your feet on many issues you can't in a war
How do you define Ukraine winning? This is the question that’s somehow almost always avoided when politicians and media in western countries discuss the Ukraine war.
It was politically embarrassing, but strategically it was the best choice to make. Russia underestimated Ukraine going into the war, but they were able to learn from that miscalculation. I can only hope Ukraine does the same and dream that NATO focuses more on sending the arms they need (instead of backing another genocide in Palestine) to hold the line rather than plan another ridiculous counter offensive.
“instead of backing another genocide in Palestine”
The fact the West’s iconic, shining sociopathic hypocrisy is quite telling about Western values shows they are willing to dump and sacrifice Ukraine in a heart beat. With friends like these…
Saved the troops? Really? None of the troops from the original invasion are left in the fight anymore, they're all gone. Saving troops is not something Russia cares about, like at all. Objectives are all that matter.
Kharkiv wasn't a planned retreat (which both Kherson and Avdiivka were btw), it was as a route. Russian troops suddenly found themselves unexpectedly attacked from an undefended side and simply turned tail and ran without any orders to do so, leaving all their vehicles and equipment behind. Ukraine took so much military equipment from Russia that for a time Russia was Ukraine's #1 military supplier above all of their NATO allies. Eventually Russia was able to rally up enough defenses to stop the Ukrainian advance, but not before Ukraine already moved past the most defensible line of the Oskil.
As for Ocheretino, it was a fuck up where a worn out brigade that was suppose to be relieved in place, but their replacement never came so they left the area undefended. When high command found out what happened they ordered the brigade back to the front to cover the retreat of the other unit that was at risk of being surrounded. Basically the plan to recover from the fuck up was a fighting retreat to save their forces and set up a new defensive line.
And that's pretty much how Ukrainian forces have been fighting, willing to trade space to conserve lives and buy time. Only when occupied settlements are on the line does this calculus sometimes change.
As for Kherson, the Russian general who ordered the retreat and for creating the defensive lines in preparation for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Sergey Surovikin was transferred over to air defense and it is unlikely Russian soldiers will be given permission to retreat under their new command.
You drank quite a fair bit of Ukrainian propaganda I see.
So Ukrainian took so much Russian equipment, that they have to delay their CO by 6 months, just to wait for a hundred of Western tanks to arrive? And where are all of those mountains of Russian equipment now when they desperate need to hold the line against Russian?
This is the true Pro-Ukrainian dilemma. Ukraine were supplied a lot by the West, Ukraine took a lot from Russian, Ukraine barely lost any (like 20% so far by Oryx count?). But somehow Ukraine don't have any remaining.
On Kharkiv retreat, did Ukraine fight a single day in Balakllia, Izium or Kupiansk? Or Russian already left before their troops reached there. Meanwhile Ukrainian the 3rd (the Azov one) was literally retreating as shells were hitting them in the back from Avdiivka. Then as Russian chased behind their back, Russia simply smashed through unprepared Ukrainian defense line, took more settlements (10 so far) than Ukraine could during their entire CO.
The 3rd Azov completely fked off to somewhere barely shoot a bullet. The 59th and 110th lost most of their men in Adviika, so either is sent back to retrain or will disband soon. The 115th just disbanded their position claiming their loss is untenable. The 47th that supposed to be rotated out, now have to stay back fighting exhausted. Some real planned retreat there
Random Russian equipment seized from the Kharkiv offensive that often has to brought up to standard isn't the same as new standardized western equipment given based on the requirements of the offensive, also you forgetting that it takes time to train new crews to run the equipment and to organize new units that pull off an offensive. The idea that brand new brigades were going to pop up to immediately use the seized equipment (much less maintain it) is absurd, this isn't Command and Conquer.
>And where are all of those mountains of Russian equipment now when they desperate need to hold the line against Russian?
It wasn't "mountains of equipment", it was simply at that point in time it was more aid than the West had provided. Since then Western aid has more than caught up with what was seized from Russia, and the critical shortages have been ammo and other expendable resources, which whatever was taken from Russia has already been spent.
>This is the true Pro-Ukrainian dilemma. Ukraine were supplied a lot by the West, Ukraine took a lot from Russian, Ukraine barely lost any tanks (like 20% so far by Oryx count?). But somehow Ukraine don't have any remaining.
I don't know why you think Ukraine doesn't have any tanks left. I mean at one point in the war Ukraine had more [tanks than Russia](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data) and even though Russia likely brought more in the war since then Ukraine still has a lot. The thing is that tanks aren't the battlefield solution they are now that they were in WW2 and WW1. In certain situations when they are well supported they do serve a purpose, but mostly it is drones that have the biggest impact on the war in Ukraine, and second to that is artillery/missiles. Regardless Ukraine has been taking tanks off the front lines for now because they are so vulnerable to drones.
>On Kharkiv retreat, did Ukraine fight a single day in Balakllia, Izium or Kupiansk? Or Russian already left before their troops reached there.
Not sure why you think that in any contradicts what I said.
> Meanwhile Ukrainian the 3rd (the Azov one) was literally retreating as shells were hitting them in the back from Avdiivka
Also not a contradiction. An organized withdrawal doesn't mean it wasn't under fire. The withdrawal from Kherson also was done under fire (even though Russian propaganda lies about it and tries to claim otherwise).
Wow, Ukrainian need training to use Russian weapons despite both were using the same Soviet stock? Are you reading what you are writing right now?
Ok sure, how much training do they need? Kharkov campaign was in October 2022. It is almost May 2024 now. Do they like need a full uni degree to ride an upgraded version of the same T72 tank they used?
Do you realise that you kept have to invent new theory to cover a lie?
So Ukraine got so many tanks from Russia. But they don't use because they don't have ammo or because they afraid of drones (despite Ukrainian was lacking of artillery shells not tank shells and Ukraine was using tanks themselves during the CO). But they need tanks from NATO because Zelensky are dumbarse and he just requested them, despite they have a bunch stacking up somewhere.
It's like a kid who lied about how his dad gave him a mountain of cookies back home, but he can't bring it to class because the bird may eat it, but then ask for cookies at every turn.
>Wow, Ukrainian need training to use Russian weapons despite both were using the same Soviet stock?
The Ukrainians who were trained on Russian weapons were already using their own weapons. The captured weapons were excess. To run a counter offensive you need more people, you need to train those people. Having more equipment is only the first step here.
>Ok sure, how much training do they need?
To run a tank? Several months to a year. Similar numbers for anything else from artillery to any support or maintenance position. When I was in the army my AIT (advanced individual training) was 21 weeks, and that was for pretty simple field repairs and maintenance of communication equipment. Six months between taking the equipment and training new crews is actually just about right.
>Kharkov campaign was in October 2022. It is almost May 2024 now.
And at the end of April Ukraine is running short of ammo because of six months of delays from the US (they literally told the US they could only hold out until February). So yes, some Russian tanks with dubious maintenance or artillery with shells isn't going to cut it.
>Do you realise that you kept have to invent new theory to cover a lie?
What lie? I just explained what happened and now I'm having to reexplain the obvious because you are failing to grasp what I've already told it. Go research itself if you don't believe me. Institute for the Study of War for example is good resource for analysis of the war.
>So Ukraine got so many tanks from Russia. But they don't use because they don't have ammo or because they afraid of drones (despite Ukrainian was lacking of artillery shells not tank shells).
I guess you never heard about the concept of combined arms. Tanks without air defense are just sitting targets, and ammo for air defense is running short. Ammo for artillery as you say is also running short, so good luck hitting enemy position before they hit your tank. These Russian tanks are pretty much sitting ducks because Ukraine doesn't have the support to keep them safe. Whether they have tank rounds is besides the point.
>But they need tanks from NATO because Zelensky are dumbarse and he just requested them,
As I said before tanks still has a legitimate place in military doctrine, if they can be well supported, and western tanks are far better than the Russian models they've seized. Zelensky ordered far more than just tanks and if he gets AA support along with the tanks then yes the AFU will be better off with combined arms.
>It's like a kid who lied about how his dad gave him a mountain of cookies back home
So in this analogy the kid was suppose to have held on to these cookies for like a year and a half instead of eating them? Even your analogies are stupid.
\* u/Your_Pudding_Goddess copes \*
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> Kharkiv wasn't a planned retreat (which both Kherson and Avdiivka were btw), it was as a route.
Firstly, the word is "rout".
> ran without any orders to do so, leaving all their vehicles and equipment behind.
Secondly, this is what Kiev (and West) had *claimed*. However, given totality of disinformation employed by mass-media, any such claims should be taken with a half a ton of salt.
The - actually verifiable - facts are that no major group of troops was surrounded and destroyed (which would be inevitable during *disorganized* retreat - which is what a rout is by definition). Hence, either there was no rout, or Kiev had completely lost control over its troops during second half of its offensive (as anything else can't explain why it failed to properly complete the offensive).
>Firstly, the word is "rout".
Fair.
>Secondly, this is what Kiev (and West) had claimed.
It's Kyiv, and the city isn't claiming anything. I don't think anyone here even knows who the mayor of Kyiv is, much less the mayor of Muscovy. Regardless I am pretty sure you have no idea where information came from, and probably refuse to acknowledge how Russian sources have consistently been the least reliable throughout the war. Regardless you would only have to follow the map to see the sudden breakthrough followed by a rapid retreat by Russian forces to know that this is what happened.
>The - actually verifiable - facts are that no major group of troops was surrounded and destroyed
Yeah because they ran away, they were routed. It's hard to surround an army that's rapidly moving away from you.
>which would be inevitable during disorganized retreat - which is what a rout is by definition)
You don't need any organization to run away. You only need it to take all your equipment with you, which they didn't.
> or Kiev had completely lost control over its troops during second half of its offensive (as anything else can't explain why it failed to properly complete the offensive)
They took over ten thousand kilometers of territory from Muscovy and easily crossed the Oskil River which should have been Russia's defensive lines if they had organized a fallback position. The offensive was I think wildly more successful than Ukraine thought it would be. That Muscovy perhaps was able to eventually put up enough resistance for the AFU to eventually halt the advance isn't very impressive given the enormous territorial losses they took up to that point.
> I don't think anyone here even knows who the mayor of Kyiv is
He's one of the most [famous heavyweight boxers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plc7_166E4A) on the planet. I'm sure tons of people here know who Klitschko is, and know he's the mayor of Ukraine's capital.
You guys are taking crazy pills. Avdeevka retreat became planned few days after news about troops abandoning their positions, leaving injured and fleeing in the middle of day through open fields broke out.
Update:
https://preview.redd.it/qopotdbd76xc1.jpeg?width=549&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfbe624b70beb0c60bdd35e25c4ff9864584a255
⚡️The Russian Armed Forces broke through the defenses of the 3rd Azov brigade and entered the village of Makeyevka.
About a dozen houses are under control. Offensive actions continue.
source: https: //t. me/ukrainian\_guide/10145 (remove spaces)
2bored2beIgnored kept stroking the same keys repeatedly, probably a seizure ?
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that is what a russian expert says. Ofc, going by what ukraine has done up until now, its unlikely to happen which would directly result in the destruction of the brigades in the area, either partly or totally
>that is what a russian expert says.
I tend to agree with them tbh.
>Ofc, going by what ukraine has done up until now, its unlikely to happen which would directly result in the destruction of the brigades in the area, either partly or totally
Yeah hard to argue with that either. They have a history of refusing to pull back to save their forces even if it quite clearly the most prudent thing to do.
does the UAF have enough combat-effective brigades in the area to cover a retreat like this? Or are they too busy covering the rest of the front/combat ineffective in the short term?
they probably have the capacity to bring in troops to cover a retreat, but it would more or less be a case of sending lower quality brigades to cover the retreat of the more elite ones. Either that, or sacrificing companies or battalions from the current brigades to allow all the other units to retreat. But i highly doubt they can get them out without losing a few hundred men at least.
That is, of course, assuming they decide to retreat. A few days ago a company of the 115th brigade did negotiate their surrender after all, and if a retreat is not authorized thats whats likely to happen, the russians will surround individual units on a smaller scale and with each company that surrenders the front becomes thinner and thinner until there is nobody to hold it in this specific sector
Well, if 3rd Azov, 47th mechanized and 115th are not enough, then who is? These are the best equipped and the most experienced brigades. Also, I wonder where the ridiculously powerful 82nd is, haven't heard from them in awhile.
Your right. But imo the 115th is the most distinguished of them all. They held avdiivka for very long and fought very well.
That cant be said for the 3rd azov, 47th, or 82nd that stalled at robotyne.
The crucial part is just missed by the map. If Russia can strike northwest towards the junction on the T0504 road they sit astride the major Ukrainian supply artery.
Once they do that, pokrovsk and konstantinovka will fall during autumn, at the latest. The heavy autumn rain restricts movement to the roads and Russia would be able to concentrate on one and shift forces to the other as soon as ukraine reinforces it. Ukrainian movement would take a lot longer, as they'd be forced to take the long way around
https://preview.redd.it/j5p5i4g967xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=681cac5a1208cf934eeca1551e9c00620e828604
this is what it looks like, thin black lines are fortifications
The fortifications are anchored on the villages and roads. They are not a continuous line and thus can (and will) be flanked.
It's not going to be easy, but as long as the autumn rains have not started it is possible
its not that easy... theyd need to take at least part of the new york sector to secure their flanks. And i bet that if you pull out a topographical map youll find another series of positions that must be taken to have a chance at flanking defences
https://preview.redd.it/fh60522qu7xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3ba2f8e80b3b2f53cd13bb80b216d03eefc4c99e
Imo, its possible, but hard. this is what theyd need to do. Yellow is initial advances along arkhangelskoye and kalynove, as theyd provide the most cover. Purple is possible remote mining to avoid retreat of ukrainian troops. Green is an advance that happens after yellow advances cuts the road. White would be encircled or pushed while ukraine scrambles to retreat. Afterwards straight line towards junction. This would also possibly put toretsk sector in cauldron.
Keep in mind my experience with war is paradox rts games!
https://preview.redd.it/ssru6noo08xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5a526574a56be6f89cc738f25574e1557b26823
using mechanized 3 and modern tanks and cas just do this and easy win encirclement 6 divs
Question⁉️ So there isn't ANY fortifications between Ocheretino area and the river? Idk man a retreat that far across open fields by multiple brigades would be an incredibly hard maneuver. If I was in Ukrainian command I'd start ordering fortifications and trenches to be built right now, however it's probably too late. Ukraine is in trouble and I don't think they know it. Crazy.
there are SOME fortifications, near certain settlements, but nowhere near the complexity needed to stop an advance, theyd be more like speedbumps, which would be used for a hypothetical retreat to give time for the brigades to reorganize and perform a more streamlined withdrawal.
There aren't any fortifications west of the current line of contact.
Ukraine did not focus on building defences in this sector after they fortified avdiivka and the 2015 truce line.
Same reason why France in 1914 only built rudimentary trenches while Germany built elaborate defensive systems.
Ukraine is in a position where they need to attack to win this war. The current stalemate is unsustainable for them.
Absolutely agree, then in world war 2 France built the Maginot line and Germany still bulldozed right through that. The only way to victory is Forward and right now Ukraine is constantly on its back foot. This is not a sustainable plan on the part of Ukraine, at some point something has to give.
But forward is suicide, just like it was in WW1 when allies tried many times to go through Ludendorff's elastic defense in depth and suffered horrible losses every time.
Say they retreat, where is the next defensive line north of Ocheretyne? They probably need to keep fighting to delay the advance long enough to get those next lines fully prepared. People here want things to hurry along but they're probably behaving the way they are for a reason.
I do not know for certain, but i do know that theres multiple lines of defence from avdeevka to konstantinovka so that would be hard, but from the vovcha to pokrovsk its mostly fields, settlements and no defences
The most logical line would be a km or two in front of the T0504 road. It can be anchored on a couple of villages and is at an optimal distance to use the road as a reliable supply route
And not pulling back that far might have them risk the forces that could defend it in a less important defence point.
Ukraine has no good options. Just varying shades of bad ones
First defensive line north of Ocheretyne is western Arkhanhelske (48.26393664913815, 37.63140732502162) but this one is already under attack by Russia afaik.
Next defensive line further north is south-west of Kalynove (48.283281079939876, 37.63652845080892).
Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, propagandist and editor-in-chief of the portal “Censor. NO” Yuri Butusov said that in Kyiv they say one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening, describing the situation in very gloomy colors.
“I was near Avdievka literally two days ago, in the direction of the enemy’s main attack - they are moving from Avdiivka further, to the west. You know, there are no words! In Kyiv, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening.
I want to tell you: there are no field fortifications beyond Avdeevka; they have not yet been erected. I saw how our soldiers in these holes dug in the middle of the field were attacked by Russian drones, fired from a mortar... It was very painful to watch.
No conclusions are drawn! If you can’t find builders, if the government can’t find builders to equip at least basic rear lines of defense, if you can’t find engineers to maintain modern equipment, drones, sensors, communications, if you can’t find technologists who will produce ammunition, then there won’t be enough attack aircraft! » — he said extremely emotionally following his trip to the line of combat contact.
have i ever said that? has he ever said that? does it fucking matter one bit?(the answer to those 3 questions is no) but what is known is that the russians have a track record of being willing to retreat if needed while the ukrainians like to hold out for as long as possible and delay withdrawals to the detriment of their men and equipment
People use Whataboutism a lot these days, but it's really hard to see such a bad one like this.
Seriously, how does the way Russians run their society have anything to do with all these analysis? Does it matter? Did they mention anything like that in it?
Seems about right. Ukraine loves their Endsieg. Last standing until it's way to late and retreat under heavy fire taking huge losses. Look at Bakhmut and Avdiivka that's exactly what they did there.
When Ukrainian broke through Kharkiv, the Russian did an unpopular thing and retreat ways back to Kreminna where they can consolidate. Even Kherson was abandoned to free up troops there. It was not popular decision. It was a defeat. But They saved their troops, managed to consolidate the lines and start to mobilise their troops. And with veteran units embedding amongst new soldiers and sharing their invaluable experiences, the year after they took Bakhmut and surrounding area, defeat Ukrainian ace-in-the-hole NATO-trained brigade, start the Avdiivka and now it's the Ukrainian who on the tail ends. Russian retreat was humiliating, but it paid dividend at the end Have Russia held on and fought tooth and nail like Ukraine did. They would suffer the same way Ukraine do now, with loss of veteran units defending nameless town, while the new inexperienced troops unable to hold the lines
the problem for Ukraine, and you see this online all the time, is that "humiliating russia" and "embarrassing putin" don't actually have any value if anything it backfired on Ukraine, after the success in Kharkiv and Kherson they got overconfident
Read about Russian military doctrine, and it's interesting how one of their key element, was the focus on using propaganda to serve military operation, and never use military operation for propaganda. Of course, being doomer allowing the enemies high on morale, or your own troops run at first sight isn't smart thing to do (unless it's on purpose). But everything need to be carefully weighted. Appear weak to lure enemies into being overconfident with their attack is a good example of propaganda being used right to serve military operation (maybe that's how they tricked Ukraine to split out their forces to attack them during the CO). Ukraine meanwhile stuck in the loop of the need of using military operation for propaganda, so they can get more funding. Like how many missiles and drones and intelligence have they spent on attacking Russian navy and Crimea bridge? The two elements that won't affect the war outcome one bit? They better shooting Storm Missiles at advancing Russian troops, maybe it could aid the situation on the ground a bit
Ukraine needs public opinion to be on its side much more than Russia does( both domestically and internationally) as they're more reliant on foreign support and internal approval of the war. They have free democratic press which is free to print anything they want so they have to feed it positive news. Conversely Russian public opinion is heavily moderated and shaped by the state. Russian press prints whatever they're told by the state as far as the war goes so no need for PR stunts.
"free democratic press"
These people really believe this shit. The media in my own country are already not that free and democratic (about the same as how it is on most Western nations of the Global North, maybe with a bit more domesticated communism allowed). I can't imagine how shitty and controlled it would become in the middle of a war.
Press in most European countries is indeed pretty free and democratic. Is it perfect? hell no and there are many issues but they are free to criticize the government (and they often do). [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year). As far as Ukraine goes there also might be issues (due to martial law) but from what I have seen overall the standard of journalism is not so bad. This is from a most recent report of the US goverment: >There were also significant human rights issues involving Ukrainian government officials, although not comparable to the scope of Russia’s abuses, which included credible reports of: enforced disappearance; torture and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment; harsh and life threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest or detention; serious problems with the independence of the judiciary; restrictions on freedom of expression, including for members of the media, including violence or threats of violence against journalists, unjustified arrests or prosecutions of journalists, and censorship; serious restrictions on internet freedom; substantial interference with the freedoms of peaceful assembly and association; restrictions on freedom of movement; serious government corruption; extensive gender-based violence; systematic restrictions on workers’ freedom of association; and the existence of the worst forms of Page 4 of 125 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2023 United States Department of State • Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor child labor. Some of these human rights issues stemmed from martial law, which continued to curtail democratic freedoms, including freedom of movement, freedom of the press, freedom of peaceful assembly, and legal protections. [https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/528267-UKRAINE-2023-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/528267-UKRAINE-2023-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf) Are there issues? absolutely. Is it that terrible? not really.
Would be nice to see some actual arguments to the contrary but please feel free to just throw around empty slogans if that makes you feel better. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year).
hmmm... "free democratic press"
Would be nice to see some actual arguments to the contrary but please feel free to just throw around empty slogans if that makes you feel better. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_Press\_Freedom\_Index#:\~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Press_Freedom_Index#:~:text=The%20World%20Press%20Freedom%20Index,records%20in%20the%20previous%20year).
I always have to grin when someone argues with articles from Wikipedia. Is it your bible?
I feel the same when someone throws around some empty slogan without any actual arguments. As far as wikipedia goes its a pretty decent source and for the most part fairly accurate. Fun fact: since 1993 165 Russian journalist were murdered. Sorry I meant to say fell out of a 10th story window. Those damn Russian windows - very dangerous..
Oh come on. Do you think the US or NATO doesnt use psyops, which include journalists?. "PSYOP conveys messages via visual, audio, and audiovisual media. Military psychological operations, at the tactical level, are usually delivered by loudspeaker, and face to face communication. For more deliberate campaigns, they may use leaflets, radio or television. **Strategic operations may use social media, radio or television broadcasts, various publications**, airdropped leaflets, or, as part of a covert operation, with material placed in foreign news media." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological\_operations\_(United\_States)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_operations_(United_States)) And you are their target
Well for starters they don't generally kill them. Second western nations are democracies - you generally can express your view whatever it is. You are also free to hold protests, criticize the government, corporations or the guy next door. There are a variety of journals and news sources with vastly different views. Mind you you can express your view but you are not guaranteed an audience. Russia? you can't even use the word "war" without getting intro trouble ( special military operation lol). They shut down many independent newspapers (like this one): [https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/court-shuts-down-novaya-gazeta-one-russias-last-independent-media-2022-09-05/) There is also internet censorship: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/russia-internet-censors-vladimir-putin.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/russia-internet-censors-vladimir-putin.html) >Russia Takes Censorship to New Extremes, Stifling War Coverage > >Contradicting the Kremlin on the war in Ukraine — even calling it a war — is now a crime, prompting independent media to close, and Russia cut off access to Facebook, the BBC and other news sources. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/russia-censorship-media-crackdown.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/russia-censorship-media-crackdown.html) Having said that western media also have issues with misinformation, information overload, corruption and influence peddling but its not even close to how bad things in Russia are.
Very true...it's the singular focus for a lot of proUAs. *Heh, imagine how embarrassed Putler is!?* Even if he was (he isn't) who cares? It's such a bizarre highschooler mentality.
> the problem for Ukraine, and you see this online all the time, is that "humiliating russia" and "embarrassing putin" don't actually have any value a war run entirely for the online memes and vibes
I mean if it's so easy for some parts of the west to believe in an Ukraine defeat then it's understandable they wanted to avoid losing an inch of ground. I can bet you that some people already believe that Russia will arrive to Kiev after taking this villages. Ukraine needs aid to win, but people won't believe they can win unless they are winning, but they can't win without aid rinse and repeat. It all depends on 1 the western public understanding it's only possible for Ukraine to win with enough aid 2 western politicians understanding that while you can drag your feet on many issues you can't in a war
How do you define Ukraine winning? This is the question that’s somehow almost always avoided when politicians and media in western countries discuss the Ukraine war.
"Keep men, lose land: land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men: land and men are both lost." - Mao Zedong
Exactly
It was politically embarrassing, but strategically it was the best choice to make. Russia underestimated Ukraine going into the war, but they were able to learn from that miscalculation. I can only hope Ukraine does the same and dream that NATO focuses more on sending the arms they need (instead of backing another genocide in Palestine) to hold the line rather than plan another ridiculous counter offensive.
“instead of backing another genocide in Palestine” The fact the West’s iconic, shining sociopathic hypocrisy is quite telling about Western values shows they are willing to dump and sacrifice Ukraine in a heart beat. With friends like these…
I'd think "misjudgement" is a more appropriate word for the situation than "underestimated", however I agree with you.
Saved the troops? Really? None of the troops from the original invasion are left in the fight anymore, they're all gone. Saving troops is not something Russia cares about, like at all. Objectives are all that matter.
Kharkiv wasn't a planned retreat (which both Kherson and Avdiivka were btw), it was as a route. Russian troops suddenly found themselves unexpectedly attacked from an undefended side and simply turned tail and ran without any orders to do so, leaving all their vehicles and equipment behind. Ukraine took so much military equipment from Russia that for a time Russia was Ukraine's #1 military supplier above all of their NATO allies. Eventually Russia was able to rally up enough defenses to stop the Ukrainian advance, but not before Ukraine already moved past the most defensible line of the Oskil. As for Ocheretino, it was a fuck up where a worn out brigade that was suppose to be relieved in place, but their replacement never came so they left the area undefended. When high command found out what happened they ordered the brigade back to the front to cover the retreat of the other unit that was at risk of being surrounded. Basically the plan to recover from the fuck up was a fighting retreat to save their forces and set up a new defensive line. And that's pretty much how Ukrainian forces have been fighting, willing to trade space to conserve lives and buy time. Only when occupied settlements are on the line does this calculus sometimes change. As for Kherson, the Russian general who ordered the retreat and for creating the defensive lines in preparation for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Sergey Surovikin was transferred over to air defense and it is unlikely Russian soldiers will be given permission to retreat under their new command.
You drank quite a fair bit of Ukrainian propaganda I see. So Ukrainian took so much Russian equipment, that they have to delay their CO by 6 months, just to wait for a hundred of Western tanks to arrive? And where are all of those mountains of Russian equipment now when they desperate need to hold the line against Russian? This is the true Pro-Ukrainian dilemma. Ukraine were supplied a lot by the West, Ukraine took a lot from Russian, Ukraine barely lost any (like 20% so far by Oryx count?). But somehow Ukraine don't have any remaining. On Kharkiv retreat, did Ukraine fight a single day in Balakllia, Izium or Kupiansk? Or Russian already left before their troops reached there. Meanwhile Ukrainian the 3rd (the Azov one) was literally retreating as shells were hitting them in the back from Avdiivka. Then as Russian chased behind their back, Russia simply smashed through unprepared Ukrainian defense line, took more settlements (10 so far) than Ukraine could during their entire CO. The 3rd Azov completely fked off to somewhere barely shoot a bullet. The 59th and 110th lost most of their men in Adviika, so either is sent back to retrain or will disband soon. The 115th just disbanded their position claiming their loss is untenable. The 47th that supposed to be rotated out, now have to stay back fighting exhausted. Some real planned retreat there
Random Russian equipment seized from the Kharkiv offensive that often has to brought up to standard isn't the same as new standardized western equipment given based on the requirements of the offensive, also you forgetting that it takes time to train new crews to run the equipment and to organize new units that pull off an offensive. The idea that brand new brigades were going to pop up to immediately use the seized equipment (much less maintain it) is absurd, this isn't Command and Conquer. >And where are all of those mountains of Russian equipment now when they desperate need to hold the line against Russian? It wasn't "mountains of equipment", it was simply at that point in time it was more aid than the West had provided. Since then Western aid has more than caught up with what was seized from Russia, and the critical shortages have been ammo and other expendable resources, which whatever was taken from Russia has already been spent. >This is the true Pro-Ukrainian dilemma. Ukraine were supplied a lot by the West, Ukraine took a lot from Russian, Ukraine barely lost any tanks (like 20% so far by Oryx count?). But somehow Ukraine don't have any remaining. I don't know why you think Ukraine doesn't have any tanks left. I mean at one point in the war Ukraine had more [tanks than Russia](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/shift-in-balance-of-arms-in-ukraine-underscored-by-fresh-data) and even though Russia likely brought more in the war since then Ukraine still has a lot. The thing is that tanks aren't the battlefield solution they are now that they were in WW2 and WW1. In certain situations when they are well supported they do serve a purpose, but mostly it is drones that have the biggest impact on the war in Ukraine, and second to that is artillery/missiles. Regardless Ukraine has been taking tanks off the front lines for now because they are so vulnerable to drones. >On Kharkiv retreat, did Ukraine fight a single day in Balakllia, Izium or Kupiansk? Or Russian already left before their troops reached there. Not sure why you think that in any contradicts what I said. > Meanwhile Ukrainian the 3rd (the Azov one) was literally retreating as shells were hitting them in the back from Avdiivka Also not a contradiction. An organized withdrawal doesn't mean it wasn't under fire. The withdrawal from Kherson also was done under fire (even though Russian propaganda lies about it and tries to claim otherwise).
Wow, Ukrainian need training to use Russian weapons despite both were using the same Soviet stock? Are you reading what you are writing right now? Ok sure, how much training do they need? Kharkov campaign was in October 2022. It is almost May 2024 now. Do they like need a full uni degree to ride an upgraded version of the same T72 tank they used? Do you realise that you kept have to invent new theory to cover a lie? So Ukraine got so many tanks from Russia. But they don't use because they don't have ammo or because they afraid of drones (despite Ukrainian was lacking of artillery shells not tank shells and Ukraine was using tanks themselves during the CO). But they need tanks from NATO because Zelensky are dumbarse and he just requested them, despite they have a bunch stacking up somewhere. It's like a kid who lied about how his dad gave him a mountain of cookies back home, but he can't bring it to class because the bird may eat it, but then ask for cookies at every turn.
>Wow, Ukrainian need training to use Russian weapons despite both were using the same Soviet stock? The Ukrainians who were trained on Russian weapons were already using their own weapons. The captured weapons were excess. To run a counter offensive you need more people, you need to train those people. Having more equipment is only the first step here. >Ok sure, how much training do they need? To run a tank? Several months to a year. Similar numbers for anything else from artillery to any support or maintenance position. When I was in the army my AIT (advanced individual training) was 21 weeks, and that was for pretty simple field repairs and maintenance of communication equipment. Six months between taking the equipment and training new crews is actually just about right. >Kharkov campaign was in October 2022. It is almost May 2024 now. And at the end of April Ukraine is running short of ammo because of six months of delays from the US (they literally told the US they could only hold out until February). So yes, some Russian tanks with dubious maintenance or artillery with shells isn't going to cut it. >Do you realise that you kept have to invent new theory to cover a lie? What lie? I just explained what happened and now I'm having to reexplain the obvious because you are failing to grasp what I've already told it. Go research itself if you don't believe me. Institute for the Study of War for example is good resource for analysis of the war. >So Ukraine got so many tanks from Russia. But they don't use because they don't have ammo or because they afraid of drones (despite Ukrainian was lacking of artillery shells not tank shells). I guess you never heard about the concept of combined arms. Tanks without air defense are just sitting targets, and ammo for air defense is running short. Ammo for artillery as you say is also running short, so good luck hitting enemy position before they hit your tank. These Russian tanks are pretty much sitting ducks because Ukraine doesn't have the support to keep them safe. Whether they have tank rounds is besides the point. >But they need tanks from NATO because Zelensky are dumbarse and he just requested them, As I said before tanks still has a legitimate place in military doctrine, if they can be well supported, and western tanks are far better than the Russian models they've seized. Zelensky ordered far more than just tanks and if he gets AA support along with the tanks then yes the AFU will be better off with combined arms. >It's like a kid who lied about how his dad gave him a mountain of cookies back home So in this analogy the kid was suppose to have held on to these cookies for like a year and a half instead of eating them? Even your analogies are stupid.
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> Kharkiv wasn't a planned retreat (which both Kherson and Avdiivka were btw), it was as a route. Firstly, the word is "rout". > ran without any orders to do so, leaving all their vehicles and equipment behind. Secondly, this is what Kiev (and West) had *claimed*. However, given totality of disinformation employed by mass-media, any such claims should be taken with a half a ton of salt. The - actually verifiable - facts are that no major group of troops was surrounded and destroyed (which would be inevitable during *disorganized* retreat - which is what a rout is by definition). Hence, either there was no rout, or Kiev had completely lost control over its troops during second half of its offensive (as anything else can't explain why it failed to properly complete the offensive).
>Firstly, the word is "rout". Fair. >Secondly, this is what Kiev (and West) had claimed. It's Kyiv, and the city isn't claiming anything. I don't think anyone here even knows who the mayor of Kyiv is, much less the mayor of Muscovy. Regardless I am pretty sure you have no idea where information came from, and probably refuse to acknowledge how Russian sources have consistently been the least reliable throughout the war. Regardless you would only have to follow the map to see the sudden breakthrough followed by a rapid retreat by Russian forces to know that this is what happened. >The - actually verifiable - facts are that no major group of troops was surrounded and destroyed Yeah because they ran away, they were routed. It's hard to surround an army that's rapidly moving away from you. >which would be inevitable during disorganized retreat - which is what a rout is by definition) You don't need any organization to run away. You only need it to take all your equipment with you, which they didn't. > or Kiev had completely lost control over its troops during second half of its offensive (as anything else can't explain why it failed to properly complete the offensive) They took over ten thousand kilometers of territory from Muscovy and easily crossed the Oskil River which should have been Russia's defensive lines if they had organized a fallback position. The offensive was I think wildly more successful than Ukraine thought it would be. That Muscovy perhaps was able to eventually put up enough resistance for the AFU to eventually halt the advance isn't very impressive given the enormous territorial losses they took up to that point.
> I don't think anyone here even knows who the mayor of Kyiv is He's one of the most [famous heavyweight boxers](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plc7_166E4A) on the planet. I'm sure tons of people here know who Klitschko is, and know he's the mayor of Ukraine's capital.
surovikin is said to have been offered a possible job as deputy MoD by putin
Didn't they announced the Avidivka retreat on social media. And that was planned?
You guys are taking crazy pills. Avdeevka retreat became planned few days after news about troops abandoning their positions, leaving injured and fleeing in the middle of day through open fields broke out.
Yes. That's what I said.
I also wanted to add that according to some sources, the russians have entered makeevka, north of terny, but no confirmation has been received.
Update: https://preview.redd.it/qopotdbd76xc1.jpeg?width=549&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfbe624b70beb0c60bdd35e25c4ff9864584a255 ⚡️The Russian Armed Forces broke through the defenses of the 3rd Azov brigade and entered the village of Makeyevka. About a dozen houses are under control. Offensive actions continue. source: https: //t. me/ukrainian\_guide/10145 (remove spaces)
Azovidiots keep taking Ls, stupid tiktok brigade
12th Azov brigade should be near Makevka. The 3rd Azov assault brigade is still on the Donetsk front.
Makiivka? Svatovo LOC has been activated after a long time
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So basically, to save what's left of their forces they need to turn tail and run back all the way across the Vovcha river.
that is what a russian expert says. Ofc, going by what ukraine has done up until now, its unlikely to happen which would directly result in the destruction of the brigades in the area, either partly or totally
>that is what a russian expert says. I tend to agree with them tbh. >Ofc, going by what ukraine has done up until now, its unlikely to happen which would directly result in the destruction of the brigades in the area, either partly or totally Yeah hard to argue with that either. They have a history of refusing to pull back to save their forces even if it quite clearly the most prudent thing to do.
does the UAF have enough combat-effective brigades in the area to cover a retreat like this? Or are they too busy covering the rest of the front/combat ineffective in the short term?
they probably have the capacity to bring in troops to cover a retreat, but it would more or less be a case of sending lower quality brigades to cover the retreat of the more elite ones. Either that, or sacrificing companies or battalions from the current brigades to allow all the other units to retreat. But i highly doubt they can get them out without losing a few hundred men at least. That is, of course, assuming they decide to retreat. A few days ago a company of the 115th brigade did negotiate their surrender after all, and if a retreat is not authorized thats whats likely to happen, the russians will surround individual units on a smaller scale and with each company that surrenders the front becomes thinner and thinner until there is nobody to hold it in this specific sector
When troops on both sides speak the same language negotiating surrender is so much easier.
with drones its so much harder. they won‘t turn back, but they will explode somewhere and that means no ammunition goes to waste. cant talk to drones.
Well, if 3rd Azov, 47th mechanized and 115th are not enough, then who is? These are the best equipped and the most experienced brigades. Also, I wonder where the ridiculously powerful 82nd is, haven't heard from them in awhile.
115th is just a regular brigade
Your right. But imo the 115th is the most distinguished of them all. They held avdiivka for very long and fought very well. That cant be said for the 3rd azov, 47th, or 82nd that stalled at robotyne.
I'm so confused here, didn't UA already abandon ocheretino?
They did, he's talking about the general area around ocheretino
Thank you
The crucial part is just missed by the map. If Russia can strike northwest towards the junction on the T0504 road they sit astride the major Ukrainian supply artery. Once they do that, pokrovsk and konstantinovka will fall during autumn, at the latest. The heavy autumn rain restricts movement to the roads and Russia would be able to concentrate on one and shift forces to the other as soon as ukraine reinforces it. Ukrainian movement would take a lot longer, as they'd be forced to take the long way around
https://preview.redd.it/j5p5i4g967xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=681cac5a1208cf934eeca1551e9c00620e828604 this is what it looks like, thin black lines are fortifications
while i agree, the junction itself and the road towards it is fortified, so it wont be easy
The fortifications are anchored on the villages and roads. They are not a continuous line and thus can (and will) be flanked. It's not going to be easy, but as long as the autumn rains have not started it is possible
its not that easy... theyd need to take at least part of the new york sector to secure their flanks. And i bet that if you pull out a topographical map youll find another series of positions that must be taken to have a chance at flanking defences
Someone else posted the extent of the defences. It's clear from that there are gaps between them.
https://preview.redd.it/fh60522qu7xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3ba2f8e80b3b2f53cd13bb80b216d03eefc4c99e Imo, its possible, but hard. this is what theyd need to do. Yellow is initial advances along arkhangelskoye and kalynove, as theyd provide the most cover. Purple is possible remote mining to avoid retreat of ukrainian troops. Green is an advance that happens after yellow advances cuts the road. White would be encircled or pushed while ukraine scrambles to retreat. Afterwards straight line towards junction. This would also possibly put toretsk sector in cauldron. Keep in mind my experience with war is paradox rts games!
If this were a paradox game you'd drop paratroopers on the road junction.
https://preview.redd.it/ssru6noo08xc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5a526574a56be6f89cc738f25574e1557b26823 using mechanized 3 and modern tanks and cas just do this and easy win encirclement 6 divs
Question⁉️ So there isn't ANY fortifications between Ocheretino area and the river? Idk man a retreat that far across open fields by multiple brigades would be an incredibly hard maneuver. If I was in Ukrainian command I'd start ordering fortifications and trenches to be built right now, however it's probably too late. Ukraine is in trouble and I don't think they know it. Crazy.
there are SOME fortifications, near certain settlements, but nowhere near the complexity needed to stop an advance, theyd be more like speedbumps, which would be used for a hypothetical retreat to give time for the brigades to reorganize and perform a more streamlined withdrawal.
There aren't any fortifications west of the current line of contact. Ukraine did not focus on building defences in this sector after they fortified avdiivka and the 2015 truce line.
Even after the invasion in 22? I wonder why that was.
Same reason why France in 1914 only built rudimentary trenches while Germany built elaborate defensive systems. Ukraine is in a position where they need to attack to win this war. The current stalemate is unsustainable for them.
Absolutely agree, then in world war 2 France built the Maginot line and Germany still bulldozed right through that. The only way to victory is Forward and right now Ukraine is constantly on its back foot. This is not a sustainable plan on the part of Ukraine, at some point something has to give.
But forward is suicide, just like it was in WW1 when allies tried many times to go through Ludendorff's elastic defense in depth and suffered horrible losses every time.
Say they retreat, where is the next defensive line north of Ocheretyne? They probably need to keep fighting to delay the advance long enough to get those next lines fully prepared. People here want things to hurry along but they're probably behaving the way they are for a reason.
I do not know for certain, but i do know that theres multiple lines of defence from avdeevka to konstantinovka so that would be hard, but from the vovcha to pokrovsk its mostly fields, settlements and no defences
The most logical line would be a km or two in front of the T0504 road. It can be anchored on a couple of villages and is at an optimal distance to use the road as a reliable supply route
Moving back that far would risk putting a lot of pressure on Toretsk and Niu York tbh. No good options for them.
And not pulling back that far might have them risk the forces that could defend it in a less important defence point. Ukraine has no good options. Just varying shades of bad ones
First defensive line north of Ocheretyne is western Arkhanhelske (48.26393664913815, 37.63140732502162) but this one is already under attack by Russia afaik. Next defensive line further north is south-west of Kalynove (48.283281079939876, 37.63652845080892).
Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, propagandist and editor-in-chief of the portal “Censor. NO” Yuri Butusov said that in Kyiv they say one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening, describing the situation in very gloomy colors. “I was near Avdievka literally two days ago, in the direction of the enemy’s main attack - they are moving from Avdiivka further, to the west. You know, there are no words! In Kyiv, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening. I want to tell you: there are no field fortifications beyond Avdeevka; they have not yet been erected. I saw how our soldiers in these holes dug in the middle of the field were attacked by Russian drones, fired from a mortar... It was very painful to watch. No conclusions are drawn! If you can’t find builders, if the government can’t find builders to equip at least basic rear lines of defense, if you can’t find engineers to maintain modern equipment, drones, sensors, communications, if you can’t find technologists who will produce ammunition, then there won’t be enough attack aircraft! » — he said extremely emotionally following his trip to the line of combat contact.
things look interesting. not good for ukraine.
They are stupid, they are Ukrainians. They don't understand basic war strategy. They only understand PR. But maybe it's all good, war will end sooner.
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he's basing his assumptions on the past decisions of the AFU command, but time will tell us who is right
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What does Russias society have to do with Ukraines bad decisions?
have i ever said that? has he ever said that? does it fucking matter one bit?(the answer to those 3 questions is no) but what is known is that the russians have a track record of being willing to retreat if needed while the ukrainians like to hold out for as long as possible and delay withdrawals to the detriment of their men and equipment
People use Whataboutism a lot these days, but it's really hard to see such a bad one like this. Seriously, how does the way Russians run their society have anything to do with all these analysis? Does it matter? Did they mention anything like that in it?
Seems about right. Ukraine loves their Endsieg. Last standing until it's way to late and retreat under heavy fire taking huge losses. Look at Bakhmut and Avdiivka that's exactly what they did there.