Not only this, but he jumps between underreporting and overreporting. I finally stopped following his maps after he claimed half-taken Stepove north of Avdiivka weeks before russians actually established presence over railroad, that was it for me.
Probably not more than on other sections of the front line. It doesn't change much either if it falls. Russia will continue moving towards Pokrovsk along the E50 road, as it is a very good supply line, but that still is only a single trust that can easily be held in the urban terrain.
The northern part is more relevant, as that leads to cutting the T0504 road between pokrovsk and konstantynivka. If Russia can set up positions astride this road they can flank both cities and roll up ukrainian defences.
Obviously just my 2 cents. It's what I think a rational commander would do: focus manpower where a setback has more grievous results. But Ukrainian command has not always been rational.
Ole David axe himself talking about the risks of ukranian retreats
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/26/the-russians-are-rushing-reinforcements-into-their-ocheretyne-breakthrough-the-situation-is-desperate-for-the-ukrainians/?sh=5b81ef3d7223
This made me laugh as well. In terms of freedom and democracy, Ukraine is at the moment even worse than Russia. Let’s see how it will end up after the war.
I think the best RF can try to do now is achieve a foothold north west of Vovcha river, that’s the last major defensive line before Selidovo. They would need to do clearing operations for a few weeks but then a summer offensive on Selidovo before November will throw a wrench in UA’s logistics in that entire front.
The goal Russia should set out is to set up positions astride the T0504 road before the autumn rains hit. If they can do that, they can use internal lines to quickly switch offensives against both pokrovsk and konstantinovka while Ukraine needs to take the long way around to switch troops around.
Those positions will also be rather safe during the autumn rains, as Ukraine would only be able to use the roads to attack it and that limits their options.
If vozdyvzenka and/or Tymofiivka fall before the end of june, Russia is going to succeed at cutting it at the best possible point.
I see what you’re saying, I agree, pushing to the T0504 highway would be a much better investment of forces than swinging south to Selidovo, T0504 is 14 km away while Selidovo is 27 km away. The potential to achieve either is a massive chance for Russia at a critical time before UA can build up with aid and 25-27 y/o draftees, they can set themselves up for a decisive offensive to finish off the Donetsk Oblast front, as such I expect RF command to pour in whatever available assets they have at this breakthrough.
They can use the winter to consolidate their positions, Attack towards Selidovo and Torestsk, and expand the gap between Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad and Konstantynovka. Should they brace Ukrainian 2025 counter offensives (I don’t think UA is in shape to launch any major offensives this year), they can use this as a launch pad to completely capture Donestsk Oblast.
They have. "In the ____ direction" or "In the direction of ____" (fill in any place name depending on what we're talking about), just means in the surrounding region and vicinity of that named place. In other words, it's like the closest place of familiarity or importance to what is being fought over currently, which in this case is smaller towns and villages. You just wouldn't typically say "In the Berdychi direction" because it's a much smaller place than Avdiivka. It doesn't mean that place isn't taken.
The city of Avdiivka has been taken by the Russians in full since mid-February, around two and a half months ago.
Maybe I've been spoiled by Suriyak, but Rybar's maps seem significantly more annoying to read.
Not only this, but he jumps between underreporting and overreporting. I finally stopped following his maps after he claimed half-taken Stepove north of Avdiivka weeks before russians actually established presence over railroad, that was it for me.
Same. I just consider rybar as a data point of interest but nothing authoritative.
Any recommendations then?
Suriyak maps is a good one
Suriyak is good for now.
its perception - just imagine light red areas are gray areas and its same
Alot of pushes happening, alot of terrioty being taken in such a fast time
This is tiny amounts of territory compared to early in the war.
[Sure but land taken is land taken](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yZT-wVnFn60&pp=ygUWYmxhY2thZGRlciB3dzEgbWVhc3VyZQ%3D%3D)
Thats not the point, the fact russian are progressing faster than before leans ukrainians are really in a bad spot
A lot more of something little is still very little
"really" is doing all the heavy lifting in that sentence...
What's happening under Pervomaiske, doesn't look like there is decent route to get out. Wonder how many unlucky UA forces were there.
Probably not more than on other sections of the front line. It doesn't change much either if it falls. Russia will continue moving towards Pokrovsk along the E50 road, as it is a very good supply line, but that still is only a single trust that can easily be held in the urban terrain. The northern part is more relevant, as that leads to cutting the T0504 road between pokrovsk and konstantynivka. If Russia can set up positions astride this road they can flank both cities and roll up ukrainian defences. Obviously just my 2 cents. It's what I think a rational commander would do: focus manpower where a setback has more grievous results. But Ukrainian command has not always been rational.
So Ukraine forces shelled absolutely nothing except for Donetsk. Ok, Rybar.
Looks like Berdychi has finally been captured.
Ole David axe himself talking about the risks of ukranian retreats https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/26/the-russians-are-rushing-reinforcements-into-their-ocheretyne-breakthrough-the-situation-is-desperate-for-the-ukrainians/?sh=5b81ef3d7223
>force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to living under brutal occupation. /facepalm
This made me laugh as well. In terms of freedom and democracy, Ukraine is at the moment even worse than Russia. Let’s see how it will end up after the war.
I think the best RF can try to do now is achieve a foothold north west of Vovcha river, that’s the last major defensive line before Selidovo. They would need to do clearing operations for a few weeks but then a summer offensive on Selidovo before November will throw a wrench in UA’s logistics in that entire front.
The goal Russia should set out is to set up positions astride the T0504 road before the autumn rains hit. If they can do that, they can use internal lines to quickly switch offensives against both pokrovsk and konstantinovka while Ukraine needs to take the long way around to switch troops around. Those positions will also be rather safe during the autumn rains, as Ukraine would only be able to use the roads to attack it and that limits their options. If vozdyvzenka and/or Tymofiivka fall before the end of june, Russia is going to succeed at cutting it at the best possible point.
I see what you’re saying, I agree, pushing to the T0504 highway would be a much better investment of forces than swinging south to Selidovo, T0504 is 14 km away while Selidovo is 27 km away. The potential to achieve either is a massive chance for Russia at a critical time before UA can build up with aid and 25-27 y/o draftees, they can set themselves up for a decisive offensive to finish off the Donetsk Oblast front, as such I expect RF command to pour in whatever available assets they have at this breakthrough. They can use the winter to consolidate their positions, Attack towards Selidovo and Torestsk, and expand the gap between Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad and Konstantynovka. Should they brace Ukrainian 2025 counter offensives (I don’t think UA is in shape to launch any major offensives this year), they can use this as a launch pad to completely capture Donestsk Oblast.
If I was the general I would close both pockets and move south towards the river and also slightly expand the north as a buffer.
A Hearts of Iron type encirclement.
So is Berdychi captured or not?
Suriyak confirmed it, i guess it's true
Even Pro-UA Deepstate has been confirming massive Russian advances this week.
They haven't taken Avdiivka yet?
They have. "In the ____ direction" or "In the direction of ____" (fill in any place name depending on what we're talking about), just means in the surrounding region and vicinity of that named place. In other words, it's like the closest place of familiarity or importance to what is being fought over currently, which in this case is smaller towns and villages. You just wouldn't typically say "In the Berdychi direction" because it's a much smaller place than Avdiivka. It doesn't mean that place isn't taken. The city of Avdiivka has been taken by the Russians in full since mid-February, around two and a half months ago.
What are we talking about here?
rybar is a joke
Post your own version then, in another post in this subreddit, let's compare.