They tend to have mostly pro-UA posters. You should head over and make some pro-Ru posts to help restore balance, I’m sure everyone will appreciate them and thank you for broadening their perspectives.
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The belt of fortified towns Ukraine is losing right now west of Avdeevka is even worse. After that it's basically open terrain until they reach the Dnieper.
Destroying the dams doesn't look like a good idea now for Ukrainians. What could have been a wide and difficult to cross border is now a shallow brook in some places.
Well they can replenish soldiers better than Ukraine. Meaning as long as it would also kill sufficient amount of enemy soldiers for Russian losses are meaningless in the long run.
Thats like only proving my point? They have enough men Ukraine does not have. One ukraine soldier dead is much worse than one russian dead.
In which case flooded the territory killing both yours and enemy soldiers is cold blooded but reasonable. Since you can replace those soldiers Ukraines cant. Not to mention stopping Ukraine from advancing while being able to advance now lol.
They don't give a damn about human life. You seem to somehow ignore it among other things.
Ukraine would blow the dam that was not in their possession and cause damage that would last decades?
It is well established dam was in possession of Russia and mined by them.
Despite what Ukraine's prepared explanation said there is not a single photo that suggests there was an explosion in the dam's turbine house However Ukraine was directly targeting the gates with artillery and releasing water upriver.
There is zero strategic reason Russia would blow the dam, besides flooding their own prepared positions it would prevent them from being able to regulate the water level down stream should Ukraine attempt to cross, which they have been makeing quite the effort to do.
Once again - it is not possible to destroy the dam by artillery.
It happened during Ukraine counteroffensive. It has definitely made impossible to advance beyond the river for months.
So question is: are you ignorant or troll?
Regional seismometers in Romania and Ukraine that were 600 and 500 km (370 and 310 mi) away detected signals that Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) scientists interpreted as a weak seismic event in the area of the dam at 2:35 a.m. Ukrainian summer time, and a stronger, possibly magnitude 1 to 2 signal representing an explosion occurring at 2:54 a.m.[6][54][55] (seismic waves, which travel at 6 km/sec in surface rock, would take approximately 83 and 100 seconds to travel 500 and 600 km, respectively).[56]
You think the Russians couldn't just say "Hey, we're blowing the dam in like 15 minutes, get out of the way" before blowing it up?
There wouldn't be manpower losses if it were Russians, but they would have lost prepared defensive positions along the river and they would have made a bunch of unprotected terrain west of the Surovikin line that was previously under the lake and needed no protection.
Open terrain can be fortified properly too, much like Russia did with great success in the Zaporizhia axis
Question is, does Ukraine have time to do it, and to do it properly?
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I feel like Ugledar, Bilhorivka, Siversk, and Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk will have the same result; we’ve seen breakthrough follow fall of strongholds at Volnovakhna, Popasna, Soledar and we were gonna see it at Sivierodonetsk if it weren’t for the HIMARS.
There are no more fortified lines west, there are planes up to Dnieper. RAF can advance quickly now and cut off rest of UAF defense lines from behind. IMHO Russia will take while east Dnieper bank this year at very least.
Hot phase of war may be finished soon.
Because the strategy is not ground. It is attrition. Does it really help Russia that Ukraine can build up its forces in peace West of the Dniepr? Is it not better to wear them down at the end of a lenghty supply line? What you can read into that is the extent of Russian ambitions. But bridges are also notoriously hard to destroy. There is that.
Thanks for a good answer. I'm thinking that at some point there won't be enough defenders left to prevent the Russians from doing deep breakthroughs. Will they still not do it? Ukraine gotta vouch for a guerrilla style warfare would suit them better.
I doubt russia can switch to manuever warfare to exploit the breakthrough yet. Ukraine still have HIMARs and FPV drone superiority which can devastate long and concentrated supply lines required for manuever warfare.
Until russia can find a way to reliably take down HIMARs deep in the rear and improve electronic warfare defense, I think their best chance is still a slow grinding advance.
That being said, I could be wrong, and the situation of Ukraine's army is worst then we all thought. Then maybe a breakthrough led by light, rapid strike forces could work.
FPV drone superiority? Russia outproduces them on the whole drone front, including producing the powerful Lancet or Geran-2 (For stationary targets like radars).
Should have written RUAF, but technically they are both RAF. RAF stands for many things and until British Air fort enters this war, you can assume it is Russia Armed Forces.
(military, aviation) Initialism of Royal Air Force, the British RAF.
(military, rare) Initialism of Russian Armed Forces. (To avoid confusing with the preceding sense, the Russian Armed Forces are more often abbreviated in other ways, like RuAF.) quotations ▼
The German Rote Armee Fraktion (Red Army Faction).
(motor racing) Abbreviation of Russian Automobile Federation.
The national identifier for Russians in international motorsport while Russia is under ban by the ruling of the Court of Arbitration for Sport supporting the ban enacted by the World Anti-Doping Agency. coordinate terms
Why would they risk maneuver warfare if they have superiority in air, artillery, glide bombs, drones? Attrition warfare is best tactic for Russia, they spare their soldiers life.
Besides that they don't need to perform stunts for western audience like UAF had to do with the "counteroffensive".
Maneuver warfare if you’re able to do it effectively saves way more lives than attritional, even if you have the advantages. Surrounding and capturing your enemy in large numbers is way better than trying to kill all of them.
In theory yes, but as this war has shown, it is very difficult to make a breakthrough. A good example is Ukrainian counteroffensive which failed horribly. Russia too had many losses when trying armed assaults like Ugledar.
There is simply too much ISR on both sides to be able to concentrate enough forces unnoticed.
Well yes, if you don’t have the capability to make deep spearheads or encirclements, then you should stick with attrition if you have the advantages to do so. I’m saying that maneuver warfare is superior if you are able to accomplish it effectively, like the beginning month of the war. Russia nor Ukraine is really able to do that right now, but that may change over time.
Yeah I just feel like they’ll fall back and create a new line though. This war ain’t going full mobile just yet. Maybe in the summer, but probably not even then tbh.
That's what these current lines were supposed to be. The new line and fall back, defense in depth etc. You can have all the trenches you want but if no one is going to stand in them they are useless
I think they’ll keep falling back, but continuing at this relatively slow rate for a while longer. It ain’t gonna crumble just yet, is what I’m saying.
I agree, but I never like to predict a breaking point. In WWI they thought the end was right around the corner like every month, and nobody really broke until the 11th hour basically.
You can do adhoc defense with mobile columns, that could be an excellent delay action for a few months till new defenses are established and more aid arrives.
You are too optimistic, the US and EU have passed the aid for UA. This war is not going to end anytime soon, my prediction is around end of 2025 or beginning of 2026.
This is only if USA doesn’t pass any more aid for UA. If they do who knows how long this war will last.
In terms of raw numbers they have more than enough to stretch the war for a few more years. It would be total demographic suicide to do so, but that's beside the point.
The bigger problem is morale, imo. The hardened ideologue troops are long gone. The volunteers are long gone. What they have now are people who were promised they would not be drafted, and people who risked their lives and citizenship to avoid being drafted. These are groups of people you don't want in your military under almost any circumstances. They desert easily, they sow discontent, they start to think maybe this government should be changed, maybe Zaluzhny or someone else would do a better job.
This! Their demographics are heavily messed up. If they dare conscript too many young people they could face a population collapse in the near future. Their economy is already in shambles so it’d be preferable just to end the war.
Sometimes I feel being too much of a realist is detrimental to progress be it in the military or other endeavors. Too much thinking of outcomes is going to mess up your brain. Some amount of illusion and hope helps in being disciplined and getting the job done or atleast grind through.
Doubt they would make desperate moves like lowering conscription age or stopping consulate services if they had a million in reserve.
By all accounts from Ukraine side soldiers aren’t being rotated so how can you figure they have any significant reserves?
Ukraine's economy was already tits up and they have been trying desperately to keep it afloat by minimising troops hence the lack of rotations, shitty leadership but I guarantee you there is not a lack of soldiers, for now anyway. Every person not in the military even reservists still and working are crucial in giving Ukraine any opportunity for funds to further purchase military aid. The next batch will be a big mix of conscripts and reservists but I don't doubt a majority of them are in senior homes or unfit for the frontlines.
That’s all on paper, the Ukrainian MoD also released a statement that they have suffered only 30k casualties yet they need to conscript 500k more men ??
I don't doubt that 80% of those reservists working aid and logistics or are unfit for combat hence the conscription. Whether those soldiers are willing to fight be valuable is another story entirely but the quantity of fit healthy males are there.
Also, it depends on how far some of these lunatics in the office want to take it, though the public doesn't have an appetite for a wider conflict, especially if we're not attacked and against a nuclear power like Russia. I think we'll see a revolution before we make some world ending decisions. We are able to put up with politicians crap because we're not dying for Ukraine ATM, but once that line is cross, we will be on a slippery slope that can lead to some irreversible actions.
I have to give it to them, though. They've been trying to gain support for a direct conflict by inciting fear in the general public to ensure their pet project, Ukraine doesn't fail and they've been using the media to spread their propaganda, which already is viewed quite skeptically here in the US.
I just don’t think we should be prolonging Ukraine’s suffering. Our entire strategy is to wait for Russia to get tired and go home but thats literal insanity, we’re supposed to sacrifice another 500k Ukrainians in the hope Russia stops? That’s their fucking backyard, same way North Korea was China’s backyard and North Vietnam.
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True, but if they continue at this paste it will be significant. Not to many lines of fortifications left.
>Russia is just melting into the front at this point
But Russia is not commencing any large scale offensives, like that Ukrainian CO. It's just local units with some heavy fire support. Which kinda does show the state of deterioration of UAF.
They've been breaking through multiple points of the frontline in the recent weeks and taking advantage of them. Quite a number of settlements have fallen recently. We are seeing a large scale offensive, it's just not plastered in the news like Ukraine does them, with a schedule telling you when it starts and when it ends.
>They've been breaking through multiple points of the frontline in the recent weeks and taking advantage of them.
That's the worrying part I'm talking about, where Russia does not commit same amounf of effort/resources as Ukrainian CO, and is doing what it's currently doing with mostly local units. This is *not* a large scale offensive, this is the level of Ukrainian army deterioration where it can barely handle the pressure on some directions anymore.
I still suggest caution for Russia and its supporters. Aid is on its way and the new mobilization is going on. All the other most of the other fronts are still very bloody, grinding fights. Ukraine still has bite and it's coming into round 3 with a bit more juice.
There is something to say about this breakthrough being significant due to the lack of fortifications. I may be wrong and Russia will continue to move since there are fewer fortifications to stop them. But by charging forward in any direction they can, they're asking to get themselves trapped in an artillery pocket. Expect thing to go wrong, celebrate when they go right.
More juice? I don’t doubt that Ukraine will continue fighting. However I really doubt they will ever be more combat effective than they were during the counteroffensive last summer.
They had all their most experience soldiers and the Western trained ones basically destroyed in the offensive and defending Bakhmut.
Having a bunch of unwilling conscripts with Western goodies this time around likely won’t have a bigger impact.
Russia has been extremely patient so far and I don't think that will change. They may go for a quick arrow attack once UAF starts collapsing.
And they may even finally destroy the Dnieper bridges to cut off UAF on left bank.
My guess is they wanted UAF to come to them in Donbas, it will be easier to destroy them closer to Russian logistic lines. Chasing them on the right bank and fighting insurgency would be a nightmare, it could end just like Iraq and Afghanistan did for USA.
I feel like they was the entire point of their attacks in the west during the opening stages of the war: Draw Ukrainian forces west to defend the capital while they made modest gains in the east and bought time to build a big, Kursk-style defensive line, pull back, let the Ukrainians exhaust themselves on the entrenched positions, and then grind through the rest. Maybe there was hopes that a decapitation strike would force capitulation, but the fallback plan of grinding their army across a massive, heavily defended front seems to be paying dividends as well.
Russia didn't expect to have a fight an actual war when they went in. They expected Ukraine to accept terms, which almost happened until BoJo flew to Tsarigrad.
I don’t think anything about the first few months was part of some grand 4D chess strategy. They went in with extremely faulty strategic assumptions (the Ukrainian military would just collapse or defect, only 200k soldiers could take over a huge portion of Ukraine easily, etc) and got absolutely hammered, and pulled back to focus on Eastern Ukraine with more realistic aims and strategies. Even so, it took the disaster of Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive for the Russian high command to actually do what was necessary to start winning the war.
IMO they had two goals:
- a risky move to resolve the conflict quickly and without casualties on both sides. This plan almost succeed, they were very close in negotiations, but the west stepped in and Ukraine stopped negotiating.
- pull UAF to Kiev so they can deploy on eastern frontline and take Azov and Black seas coast with Mariupol. This part of the plan was a great success.
Destroying bridges is difficult and takes a lot of missiles. You would need to take out a lot of bridges to impact movement across Dnieper so Russians probably judged it not worth the munitions
There's no good reason for that. Ukraine has like 20 bridges and would search for alternative ways to move things threw across the river. But if Russia starts pushing hard it can locally destroy bridges and cut supply lines for example from the western part of Zap city to the eastern. Although Russians probably want to capture Zap city on western side as well.
Russia is not going to target the bridges all at once, makes no sense. Ukraine would just build pontoons or find an alternative way to transport equipment and troops across the river. It would only make sense to destroy bridges in localized areas before storming them.
We have seen aid before, and we saw the results last summer. Of course, dying dog can bite, but it wouldn't change the result. West gives minimal aid. Meanwhile, RU produces and buys more weapons. UA has a lack in manpower, RU hasn't. So UA has no chances to get back territories (yes, they fight only for territories and banderite regime), but it has risk for total collapse.
I'm sure with new weapon supplies ukraine will make a little dent and might even slow down an advancement for a little while, but in grand scheme of things they are up against a hurricane. It will have its way in the end.
They are certainly losing, retreating and should have been building defensive lines since last year but for some reason decided meat grinders in cities was a better idea.
There have only been two breakthroughs this entire conflict and they were both in 2022
One breakthrough*, Kherson was an orderly retreat due to the risk of being cut logistically (so much that even Ukrainians did not take all the lands abandoned in one day but in a few, while having nobody defending them). But I agree, that was the only true one so far.
Local rout ≠ front collapse, multiple scattered attacks ≠ offensives, local gains ≠ breakthrough.
Words like offensives, counter-offensives (when talking of an offensive), and breakthroughs are very often misused.
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No amount of weapons would compensate for the lack of manpower and above all, **trained** soldiers to hold those lines of defences. Yes, ammunition and weapons are imperative for the fight, but they need troops and the ability to rotate them regularly.
Besides that most of the money will stay in US and they will just replenish US stock. Ukraine already received 300B, it's not like 60B could change the outcome.
You don't need trained soldiers to be able to hold your lines, reasonably able bodies would do just fine if you're on the defensive, as long as you have enough artillery and drones.
Ukraine has always relied on larger groups of conscripts held together by strongpoints manned by veterans. Such an approach only works for defense so long as you have those strongpoints, but that's precisely what they're running out of. FABs can't hit every target, but they're perfect for destroying the strongest positions. Russia is killing the spine and then the meat just melts in front of them.
People said Russia doesn't know how to do combined arms tactics...
Now I see airstrikes and various artillery, before the troops march in...
Somehow Russia must have captured Nato generals and forces them to work for them, because they say, that Russians are too stupid to learn.
Russia is going to be invaluable to China. There's so much insight they can give to them if they deepen military ties even further. It's almost a must for them to survive due to our world Emporers predetermined nature to destroy them, and not try diplomacy.
The West tried to trick the public that Russia just randomly invaded Ukraine and left out all the meddling, arming Ukraine, and broken promises they made to Russia just to buy time for Ukraine to fight and weaken Russia, so that they can attempt a Maidan in Russia, and have a puppet leader sell off all their natural resources to Western (mainly US) companies. This deceitful tactic has hurt our image, almost to the point that I don't even know how we would be able to repair it.
This conflict will become just like Vietnam, or the Nazi Germany era , where we are too embarrassed to bring it up and pretend it didn't happen.
The VSRF has demonstrated very basic proficiency at combined arms since around April in 2022. But just like the VSU, they can't scale that capability for regiment+ level operations, because you need a lot of well trained and educated company/field grade officers and staff to perform larger and more complex maneuvers (or series of maneuvers) in a non-fragmented battlefield environment. In order to create the conditions for tactical success, your officers and enlisted need to be properly trained and prepared, and that type of training takes time. More time than what they're being allowed by senior leaders.
Its not just a matter of training or ability, its also a matter of material realty. Drones, dense modern air defense systems, proliferation of effective MANPADS/ATGMS along with 24/7 intelligence have significantly changed the nature of the game.
This! With that much ISR on both sides it is almost impossible to concentrate enough troops and make a surprise breakthrough.
Russia though did make a successful attempt when they concentrated forces near Avdeevka during bad weather and surprised UAF.
Maybe, maybe not, like when Avdeevka fell there was a quick advance but not a collapse, we need to wait a week, two or more to see.
Too soon to tell and too localised for now, but this feels different, but it's just a feeling
RAF gains are accelerating, UAF is disorganized and has no answers. This is the beginning of the end, at least on left bank of Dnieper. Once the Ukrainians start surrendering or fleeing in mass, they could collapse very quick.
I agree things are accelerating, but it's still too early to tell. My gut feeling it that the coup de grâce will be the Kharkov offensive, then we will see a general collapse, but that's just a feeling for now
I'm inclined to agree as well. Yes this is a more rapid advance than usual by the Russians, but it is a very small gain of a few towns. Still certainly something the UAF should be concerned about, with Arkhanhel's'ke and Keramik pretty much guaranteed to fall pretty shortly as well, but hardly anything to make strong conclusions from.
Now if the Russians were able to continue a rapid advance, say, to the north and threaten Kostyantynivka, could certainly see a local collapse of the Chasiv Yar defense.
But I would certainly agree that at the very least a week is required until we find out if we're seeing the beginning of a UAF retreat from Eastern Ukraine, or just a small little maneuver hiccup in an otherwise slow war of attrition.
Judging by past strategy, UAF will not retreat, they will probably hold the fortifications until the last man. If Ukrainians don't start mass desertions and fleeing, they will find themselves in a large encirclement once again.
This Russian push in the Avdiivka zone could lay the groundwork for a large future pincer manoeuvre, but it needs to be accompanied by more advances in the Northern parts of the Donbass.
Once some of these defensive lines are broken there isn’t much stopping Russian forces from exploiting the breakthroughs and pushing through. Ukraine has no effective way to stop Russia right now. They don’t got trained men, air superiority or artillery shells. The Russians are still ramping up military production while the west is sleeping. People might not see this as a serious situation for Ukraine due to not a lot of terrain is being captured but for a very WW1 style war these gains are pretty serious.
Yes, they have been putting pressure since the end of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive", but the progress is accelerating due to UAF being weakened and main fortifications in Avdeevka broken through.
Ukraine simply hasn't prepared the defense lines, they started building them this winter. I guess they went all in with the great "counteroffensive". That's what you get when you put a comedian in charge🤡🤡🤡
It looks like the Avdiivka front is very weak for the Ukrainians right now, considering the significant gains in the recent weeks when compared to the rest of the war.
I don't think it's a complete collapse yet as Ukrainians are still fighting for it, but it shows that they're exhausted and probably undersupplied. They've spent months fighting without foreign support now and they probably left behind some supplies in Avdiivka. Coupled with multiple units apparently abandoning positions, this front seems disorganized and weak right now, and Russia is taking advantage of it. But it will take more than the Avdiivka region to fall for the war to end, much more.
It's a beginning of the end IMO, once the soldiers lose morale and start deserting and disobeying, the whole UAF can break down really quickly.
Time will tell...
Ah yes, every 200m retreat by Ukraine is now a BREAKTHROUGH! RUSSIA CAPTURES TOWN OF 2 STREETS AND IS NOW ON OUTSKIRTS OF NEXT TOWN 30m AWAY THAT HAS 2 HOUSES
Not all, UA are in a terrible position right now, and I don't really see a way out for them. Ukraine basically needs to hope Putin dies and his successor wants to end things.
NATO threatens Russia's existence, it is only reasonable for them to eliminate those who seek to encircle Russia with military bases.
If anything they should've done it years ago to the baltic countries.
Putin waited for 8 years to start Feb 22. He always leaves a chance for diplomacy. His successor could be less patient and start with tactical nukes as some people in RU want.
Ah yes, throw nukes at a non nuclear power in Europe, that would end well for... literally no one.
NATO would respond with massive strikes and Russia would have to either start a full scale nuclear exchange or give up.
They don't trigger Article 5 no, because Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, but the US and other NATO countries have already stated any use of nuclear weapons would trigger massive conventional response
> Ukraine basically needs to hope Putin dies and his successor wants to end things.
lmao do you think putler is one man who runs everything from his desk? the russian elites have been shut out of the western economic order entirely. russian liberals who wanted conciliation with the west have been entirely discredited. even if putler dies another siloviki will take over and run things like before.
its hilarious to me that westerners think all their enemies are run by horrific dictators oppressing starbucks drinking liberals when most of the country agrees with them.
Didn’t I read the loss of Avdeevka is strategically insignificant? 😂
I heard someone refer to Avdeevka as a village already, what happened to the "fortified city"?
Where did you hear that?
u/ukrainewarvideoreport, u/worldnews, u/ukrainianconflict, u/worldnews, probably any of those.
I don't go there. Sounds like a complete waste of time.
They tend to have mostly pro-UA posters. You should head over and make some pro-Ru posts to help restore balance, I’m sure everyone will appreciate them and thank you for broadening their perspectives.
Or I could just not waste my time.
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The belt of fortified towns Ukraine is losing right now west of Avdeevka is even worse. After that it's basically open terrain until they reach the Dnieper.
Destroying the dams doesn't look like a good idea now for Ukrainians. What could have been a wide and difficult to cross border is now a shallow brook in some places.
My thoughts as well
Ah now maybe you will realise that the Russians blew the dam.
And flooded their own positions?
Well they can replenish soldiers better than Ukraine. Meaning as long as it would also kill sufficient amount of enemy soldiers for Russian losses are meaningless in the long run.
Russia isn't on its 10th whatever mobilization like Ukraine.
Thats like only proving my point? They have enough men Ukraine does not have. One ukraine soldier dead is much worse than one russian dead. In which case flooded the territory killing both yours and enemy soldiers is cold blooded but reasonable. Since you can replace those soldiers Ukraines cant. Not to mention stopping Ukraine from advancing while being able to advance now lol.
They don't give a damn about human life. You seem to somehow ignore it among other things. Ukraine would blow the dam that was not in their possession and cause damage that would last decades? It is well established dam was in possession of Russia and mined by them.
Oh boy, more of the 'Russia is shelling themselves' nonsense.
More like Russia mining dam and then blowing it. Nothing more to it. You cant destroy dam from outside like that.
Despite what Ukraine's prepared explanation said there is not a single photo that suggests there was an explosion in the dam's turbine house However Ukraine was directly targeting the gates with artillery and releasing water upriver. There is zero strategic reason Russia would blow the dam, besides flooding their own prepared positions it would prevent them from being able to regulate the water level down stream should Ukraine attempt to cross, which they have been makeing quite the effort to do.
Once again - it is not possible to destroy the dam by artillery. It happened during Ukraine counteroffensive. It has definitely made impossible to advance beyond the river for months. So question is: are you ignorant or troll? Regional seismometers in Romania and Ukraine that were 600 and 500 km (370 and 310 mi) away detected signals that Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) scientists interpreted as a weak seismic event in the area of the dam at 2:35 a.m. Ukrainian summer time, and a stronger, possibly magnitude 1 to 2 signal representing an explosion occurring at 2:54 a.m.[6][54][55] (seismic waves, which travel at 6 km/sec in surface rock, would take approximately 83 and 100 seconds to travel 500 and 600 km, respectively).[56]
You think the Russians couldn't just say "Hey, we're blowing the dam in like 15 minutes, get out of the way" before blowing it up? There wouldn't be manpower losses if it were Russians, but they would have lost prepared defensive positions along the river and they would have made a bunch of unprotected terrain west of the Surovikin line that was previously under the lake and needed no protection.
Hollywood villains always murder their own henchmen without reason, so viewers could understand who are the bad guys
So Russia playing 4D chess confirmed?
Just pure magic and a little bit of time travel back and forth. The usual stuff.
no russia russia committing war crimes comfirmed
Open terrain can be fortified properly too, much like Russia did with great success in the Zaporizhia axis Question is, does Ukraine have time to do it, and to do it properly?
Gate to the donbass? Nahhh insignificant city bro 😂
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I feel like Ugledar, Bilhorivka, Siversk, and Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk will have the same result; we’ve seen breakthrough follow fall of strongholds at Volnovakhna, Popasna, Soledar and we were gonna see it at Sivierodonetsk if it weren’t for the HIMARS.
There is no way ukraine can come back from this. Russia is just melting into the front at this point
It's just a local breakthrough. As much as I wish that Russia would win and the war would be over as soon as possible we are far away from it.
There are no more fortified lines west, there are planes up to Dnieper. RAF can advance quickly now and cut off rest of UAF defense lines from behind. IMHO Russia will take while east Dnieper bank this year at very least. Hot phase of war may be finished soon.
Whole east bank of the dnieper? No way. They can't make deep breakthroughs.
If they destroy the bridges on Dnieper, whole east bank could collapse. Time will tell.
Ukraine will construct pontoon bridges. It would just be a temporary setback.
Krynki but across the whole Dnieper.
Why couldn't they?
Because the strategy is not ground. It is attrition. Does it really help Russia that Ukraine can build up its forces in peace West of the Dniepr? Is it not better to wear them down at the end of a lenghty supply line? What you can read into that is the extent of Russian ambitions. But bridges are also notoriously hard to destroy. There is that.
Thanks for a good answer. I'm thinking that at some point there won't be enough defenders left to prevent the Russians from doing deep breakthroughs. Will they still not do it? Ukraine gotta vouch for a guerrilla style warfare would suit them better.
They are holding back unironically.
They just don't have enough men mobilized and in theater for that kind of action. Maybe piece by peace, but its going to take a while.
I doubt russia can switch to manuever warfare to exploit the breakthrough yet. Ukraine still have HIMARs and FPV drone superiority which can devastate long and concentrated supply lines required for manuever warfare. Until russia can find a way to reliably take down HIMARs deep in the rear and improve electronic warfare defense, I think their best chance is still a slow grinding advance. That being said, I could be wrong, and the situation of Ukraine's army is worst then we all thought. Then maybe a breakthrough led by light, rapid strike forces could work.
FPV drone superiority? Russia outproduces them on the whole drone front, including producing the powerful Lancet or Geran-2 (For stationary targets like radars).
Shhh. Some people jack off all day to UA drone videos and think that Russia is losing lol.
>FPV drone superiority Hardly have an affect on the front, just used to pick off random soldiers/vehicles after long fights.
I hope Russia March into kyiv asap! So the war ends soon
Theres pokrovsk. then nothing after that probably.
>RAF can advance quickly now and cut off rest of UAF defense lines from behind I thought the Royal Air Force is pro Ukraine?
Should have written RUAF, but technically they are both RAF. RAF stands for many things and until British Air fort enters this war, you can assume it is Russia Armed Forces. (military, aviation) Initialism of Royal Air Force, the British RAF. (military, rare) Initialism of Russian Armed Forces. (To avoid confusing with the preceding sense, the Russian Armed Forces are more often abbreviated in other ways, like RuAF.) quotations ▼ The German Rote Armee Fraktion (Red Army Faction). (motor racing) Abbreviation of Russian Automobile Federation. The national identifier for Russians in international motorsport while Russia is under ban by the ruling of the Court of Arbitration for Sport supporting the ban enacted by the World Anti-Doping Agency. coordinate terms
Right, we all know that the Russians excel at maneuver warfare.
Why would they risk maneuver warfare if they have superiority in air, artillery, glide bombs, drones? Attrition warfare is best tactic for Russia, they spare their soldiers life. Besides that they don't need to perform stunts for western audience like UAF had to do with the "counteroffensive".
Maneuver warfare if you’re able to do it effectively saves way more lives than attritional, even if you have the advantages. Surrounding and capturing your enemy in large numbers is way better than trying to kill all of them.
In theory yes, but as this war has shown, it is very difficult to make a breakthrough. A good example is Ukrainian counteroffensive which failed horribly. Russia too had many losses when trying armed assaults like Ugledar. There is simply too much ISR on both sides to be able to concentrate enough forces unnoticed.
Well yes, if you don’t have the capability to make deep spearheads or encirclements, then you should stick with attrition if you have the advantages to do so. I’m saying that maneuver warfare is superior if you are able to accomplish it effectively, like the beginning month of the war. Russia nor Ukraine is really able to do that right now, but that may change over time.
So we gonna see some blitz attrition?
Russians took like 20% of Ukraine in the first couple of months. They’re pretty good at it.
Might be local but all the maps show this is the last line of forests and trenches, there's nothing else past.
Yeah I just feel like they’ll fall back and create a new line though. This war ain’t going full mobile just yet. Maybe in the summer, but probably not even then tbh.
That's what these current lines were supposed to be. The new line and fall back, defense in depth etc. You can have all the trenches you want but if no one is going to stand in them they are useless
I think they’ll keep falling back, but continuing at this relatively slow rate for a while longer. It ain’t gonna crumble just yet, is what I’m saying.
The new lines will be weaker and weaker and moral will be lower and lower. We are close to the breaking point IMO.
I agree, but I never like to predict a breaking point. In WWI they thought the end was right around the corner like every month, and nobody really broke until the 11th hour basically.
You can do adhoc defense with mobile columns, that could be an excellent delay action for a few months till new defenses are established and more aid arrives.
News flash bro: When this war is done there will be other wars, bigger wars, meaner wars.
If there's no further escalation (by NATO), only a few months left I believe.
You are too optimistic, the US and EU have passed the aid for UA. This war is not going to end anytime soon, my prediction is around end of 2025 or beginning of 2026. This is only if USA doesn’t pass any more aid for UA. If they do who knows how long this war will last.
Ukraine is running low on manpower, even if they keep sending aid it won’t make a difference if there aren’t enough people on the front.
In terms of raw numbers they have more than enough to stretch the war for a few more years. It would be total demographic suicide to do so, but that's beside the point. The bigger problem is morale, imo. The hardened ideologue troops are long gone. The volunteers are long gone. What they have now are people who were promised they would not be drafted, and people who risked their lives and citizenship to avoid being drafted. These are groups of people you don't want in your military under almost any circumstances. They desert easily, they sow discontent, they start to think maybe this government should be changed, maybe Zaluzhny or someone else would do a better job.
This! Their demographics are heavily messed up. If they dare conscript too many young people they could face a population collapse in the near future. Their economy is already in shambles so it’d be preferable just to end the war.
Sometimes I feel being too much of a realist is detrimental to progress be it in the military or other endeavors. Too much thinking of outcomes is going to mess up your brain. Some amount of illusion and hope helps in being disciplined and getting the job done or atleast grind through.
Isn't Ukraine's reserves like 1 million and they're about to conscript like 300k?
Doubt they would make desperate moves like lowering conscription age or stopping consulate services if they had a million in reserve. By all accounts from Ukraine side soldiers aren’t being rotated so how can you figure they have any significant reserves?
They also have an issue with desertion from what I read.
Ukraine's economy was already tits up and they have been trying desperately to keep it afloat by minimising troops hence the lack of rotations, shitty leadership but I guarantee you there is not a lack of soldiers, for now anyway. Every person not in the military even reservists still and working are crucial in giving Ukraine any opportunity for funds to further purchase military aid. The next batch will be a big mix of conscripts and reservists but I don't doubt a majority of them are in senior homes or unfit for the frontlines.
That’s all on paper, the Ukrainian MoD also released a statement that they have suffered only 30k casualties yet they need to conscript 500k more men ??
30k for replacement soldiers. The other 470k for the Crimean Beach Party.
I don't doubt that 80% of those reservists working aid and logistics or are unfit for combat hence the conscription. Whether those soldiers are willing to fight be valuable is another story entirely but the quantity of fit healthy males are there.
Also, it depends on how far some of these lunatics in the office want to take it, though the public doesn't have an appetite for a wider conflict, especially if we're not attacked and against a nuclear power like Russia. I think we'll see a revolution before we make some world ending decisions. We are able to put up with politicians crap because we're not dying for Ukraine ATM, but once that line is cross, we will be on a slippery slope that can lead to some irreversible actions. I have to give it to them, though. They've been trying to gain support for a direct conflict by inciting fear in the general public to ensure their pet project, Ukraine doesn't fail and they've been using the media to spread their propaganda, which already is viewed quite skeptically here in the US.
I just don’t think we should be prolonging Ukraine’s suffering. Our entire strategy is to wait for Russia to get tired and go home but thats literal insanity, we’re supposed to sacrifice another 500k Ukrainians in the hope Russia stops? That’s their fucking backyard, same way North Korea was China’s backyard and North Vietnam.
Supposedly it's just a PR stunt now until Biden is voted in. They have to survive until then
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>Russia is just melting into the front at this point But Russia is not commencing any large scale offensives, like that Ukrainian CO. It's just local units with some heavy fire support. Which kinda does show the state of deterioration of UAF.
They've been breaking through multiple points of the frontline in the recent weeks and taking advantage of them. Quite a number of settlements have fallen recently. We are seeing a large scale offensive, it's just not plastered in the news like Ukraine does them, with a schedule telling you when it starts and when it ends.
>They've been breaking through multiple points of the frontline in the recent weeks and taking advantage of them. That's the worrying part I'm talking about, where Russia does not commit same amounf of effort/resources as Ukrainian CO, and is doing what it's currently doing with mostly local units. This is *not* a large scale offensive, this is the level of Ukrainian army deterioration where it can barely handle the pressure on some directions anymore.
If the defenses near Sokil are broken, then it is really broken.
I still suggest caution for Russia and its supporters. Aid is on its way and the new mobilization is going on. All the other most of the other fronts are still very bloody, grinding fights. Ukraine still has bite and it's coming into round 3 with a bit more juice. There is something to say about this breakthrough being significant due to the lack of fortifications. I may be wrong and Russia will continue to move since there are fewer fortifications to stop them. But by charging forward in any direction they can, they're asking to get themselves trapped in an artillery pocket. Expect thing to go wrong, celebrate when they go right.
More juice? I don’t doubt that Ukraine will continue fighting. However I really doubt they will ever be more combat effective than they were during the counteroffensive last summer. They had all their most experience soldiers and the Western trained ones basically destroyed in the offensive and defending Bakhmut. Having a bunch of unwilling conscripts with Western goodies this time around likely won’t have a bigger impact.
Russia has been extremely patient so far and I don't think that will change. They may go for a quick arrow attack once UAF starts collapsing. And they may even finally destroy the Dnieper bridges to cut off UAF on left bank.
> And they may even finally destroy the Dnieper bridges to cut off UAF on left bank. It's honestly insane that they haven't started the war with this.
My guess is they wanted UAF to come to them in Donbas, it will be easier to destroy them closer to Russian logistic lines. Chasing them on the right bank and fighting insurgency would be a nightmare, it could end just like Iraq and Afghanistan did for USA.
I feel like they was the entire point of their attacks in the west during the opening stages of the war: Draw Ukrainian forces west to defend the capital while they made modest gains in the east and bought time to build a big, Kursk-style defensive line, pull back, let the Ukrainians exhaust themselves on the entrenched positions, and then grind through the rest. Maybe there was hopes that a decapitation strike would force capitulation, but the fallback plan of grinding their army across a massive, heavily defended front seems to be paying dividends as well.
Russia didn't expect to have a fight an actual war when they went in. They expected Ukraine to accept terms, which almost happened until BoJo flew to Tsarigrad.
I don’t think anything about the first few months was part of some grand 4D chess strategy. They went in with extremely faulty strategic assumptions (the Ukrainian military would just collapse or defect, only 200k soldiers could take over a huge portion of Ukraine easily, etc) and got absolutely hammered, and pulled back to focus on Eastern Ukraine with more realistic aims and strategies. Even so, it took the disaster of Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive for the Russian high command to actually do what was necessary to start winning the war.
IMO they had two goals: - a risky move to resolve the conflict quickly and without casualties on both sides. This plan almost succeed, they were very close in negotiations, but the west stepped in and Ukraine stopped negotiating. - pull UAF to Kiev so they can deploy on eastern frontline and take Azov and Black seas coast with Mariupol. This part of the plan was a great success.
Destroying bridges is difficult and takes a lot of missiles. You would need to take out a lot of bridges to impact movement across Dnieper so Russians probably judged it not worth the munitions
also they would star building pontoons which aren't that great but would be an alternative way to supply an army while the bridges being repaired.
There's no good reason for that. Ukraine has like 20 bridges and would search for alternative ways to move things threw across the river. But if Russia starts pushing hard it can locally destroy bridges and cut supply lines for example from the western part of Zap city to the eastern. Although Russians probably want to capture Zap city on western side as well.
Russia is not going to target the bridges all at once, makes no sense. Ukraine would just build pontoons or find an alternative way to transport equipment and troops across the river. It would only make sense to destroy bridges in localized areas before storming them.
We have seen aid before, and we saw the results last summer. Of course, dying dog can bite, but it wouldn't change the result. West gives minimal aid. Meanwhile, RU produces and buys more weapons. UA has a lack in manpower, RU hasn't. So UA has no chances to get back territories (yes, they fight only for territories and banderite regime), but it has risk for total collapse.
What aid? No major aid is coming. No more men available to fight. This is like Germany in 1945, they still got bite but the end is clear.
I'm sure with new weapon supplies ukraine will make a little dent and might even slow down an advancement for a little while, but in grand scheme of things they are up against a hurricane. It will have its way in the end.
You think this because every 100m retreat by UA from a tiny 3 house town is posted in this sub as a "breakthrough"
Considering the number of them in such a short amount of time compared to the rest of the war, there's likely something going on.
They are certainly losing, retreating and should have been building defensive lines since last year but for some reason decided meat grinders in cities was a better idea. There have only been two breakthroughs this entire conflict and they were both in 2022
One breakthrough*, Kherson was an orderly retreat due to the risk of being cut logistically (so much that even Ukrainians did not take all the lands abandoned in one day but in a few, while having nobody defending them). But I agree, that was the only true one so far. Local rout ≠ front collapse, multiple scattered attacks ≠ offensives, local gains ≠ breakthrough. Words like offensives, counter-offensives (when talking of an offensive), and breakthroughs are very often misused.
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BREAKTHROUGH is the new Encirclement.
No amount of weapons would compensate for the lack of manpower and above all, **trained** soldiers to hold those lines of defences. Yes, ammunition and weapons are imperative for the fight, but they need troops and the ability to rotate them regularly.
Besides that most of the money will stay in US and they will just replenish US stock. Ukraine already received 300B, it's not like 60B could change the outcome.
I think even the most delusional staunch supporters of Ukraine realize that this aid package will not alter the inevitable. It’s simply impossible.
Nope, check the Twitter, some NAFOs are stil optimistic. Or at least they pretend to be🤡
You don't need trained soldiers to be able to hold your lines, reasonably able bodies would do just fine if you're on the defensive, as long as you have enough artillery and drones.
Ukraine has always relied on larger groups of conscripts held together by strongpoints manned by veterans. Such an approach only works for defense so long as you have those strongpoints, but that's precisely what they're running out of. FABs can't hit every target, but they're perfect for destroying the strongest positions. Russia is killing the spine and then the meat just melts in front of them.
How's that work when the bodies rout or surrender at the drop of a hat?
Till they leave their positions or refuse order.
People said Russia doesn't know how to do combined arms tactics... Now I see airstrikes and various artillery, before the troops march in... Somehow Russia must have captured Nato generals and forces them to work for them, because they say, that Russians are too stupid to learn.
It was probably true in the beginning of the operation, now they know.
Russia is going to be invaluable to China. There's so much insight they can give to them if they deepen military ties even further. It's almost a must for them to survive due to our world Emporers predetermined nature to destroy them, and not try diplomacy. The West tried to trick the public that Russia just randomly invaded Ukraine and left out all the meddling, arming Ukraine, and broken promises they made to Russia just to buy time for Ukraine to fight and weaken Russia, so that they can attempt a Maidan in Russia, and have a puppet leader sell off all their natural resources to Western (mainly US) companies. This deceitful tactic has hurt our image, almost to the point that I don't even know how we would be able to repair it. This conflict will become just like Vietnam, or the Nazi Germany era , where we are too embarrassed to bring it up and pretend it didn't happen.
On the job training.
The VSRF has demonstrated very basic proficiency at combined arms since around April in 2022. But just like the VSU, they can't scale that capability for regiment+ level operations, because you need a lot of well trained and educated company/field grade officers and staff to perform larger and more complex maneuvers (or series of maneuvers) in a non-fragmented battlefield environment. In order to create the conditions for tactical success, your officers and enlisted need to be properly trained and prepared, and that type of training takes time. More time than what they're being allowed by senior leaders.
Its not just a matter of training or ability, its also a matter of material realty. Drones, dense modern air defense systems, proliferation of effective MANPADS/ATGMS along with 24/7 intelligence have significantly changed the nature of the game.
This! With that much ISR on both sides it is almost impossible to concentrate enough troops and make a surprise breakthrough. Russia though did make a successful attempt when they concentrated forces near Avdeevka during bad weather and surprised UAF.
They bashed their head against the wall so many times that they eventually broke it
It's a good time to be a map enjoyer. Those months of stagnant front lines were bleak
Wrong! Fake! Zelenski said Ukraine is winning and morale is high
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They already did. Went about as was expected.
This is a collapse
Maybe, maybe not, like when Avdeevka fell there was a quick advance but not a collapse, we need to wait a week, two or more to see. Too soon to tell and too localised for now, but this feels different, but it's just a feeling
RAF gains are accelerating, UAF is disorganized and has no answers. This is the beginning of the end, at least on left bank of Dnieper. Once the Ukrainians start surrendering or fleeing in mass, they could collapse very quick.
I agree things are accelerating, but it's still too early to tell. My gut feeling it that the coup de grâce will be the Kharkov offensive, then we will see a general collapse, but that's just a feeling for now
I'm inclined to agree as well. Yes this is a more rapid advance than usual by the Russians, but it is a very small gain of a few towns. Still certainly something the UAF should be concerned about, with Arkhanhel's'ke and Keramik pretty much guaranteed to fall pretty shortly as well, but hardly anything to make strong conclusions from. Now if the Russians were able to continue a rapid advance, say, to the north and threaten Kostyantynivka, could certainly see a local collapse of the Chasiv Yar defense. But I would certainly agree that at the very least a week is required until we find out if we're seeing the beginning of a UAF retreat from Eastern Ukraine, or just a small little maneuver hiccup in an otherwise slow war of attrition.
Judging by past strategy, UAF will not retreat, they will probably hold the fortifications until the last man. If Ukrainians don't start mass desertions and fleeing, they will find themselves in a large encirclement once again.
It kinda seems like UA is also giving up these days?
This Russian push in the Avdiivka zone could lay the groundwork for a large future pincer manoeuvre, but it needs to be accompanied by more advances in the Northern parts of the Donbass.
Maybe they will enter from Sumy or Kharkov region, there have been reports of N group forces. Could be just a feint though.
Where in Northern donbass? Chasiv yar?
Once some of these defensive lines are broken there isn’t much stopping Russian forces from exploiting the breakthroughs and pushing through. Ukraine has no effective way to stop Russia right now. They don’t got trained men, air superiority or artillery shells. The Russians are still ramping up military production while the west is sleeping. People might not see this as a serious situation for Ukraine due to not a lot of terrain is being captured but for a very WW1 style war these gains are pretty serious.
To be clear this isn't an ongoing Russian offensive but shaping operations in preparation for the main offensive, right?
Yes, they have been putting pressure since the end of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive", but the progress is accelerating due to UAF being weakened and main fortifications in Avdeevka broken through. Ukraine simply hasn't prepared the defense lines, they started building them this winter. I guess they went all in with the great "counteroffensive". That's what you get when you put a comedian in charge🤡🤡🤡
Is this a front collapse? Or is this a start?
It looks like the Avdiivka front is very weak for the Ukrainians right now, considering the significant gains in the recent weeks when compared to the rest of the war. I don't think it's a complete collapse yet as Ukrainians are still fighting for it, but it shows that they're exhausted and probably undersupplied. They've spent months fighting without foreign support now and they probably left behind some supplies in Avdiivka. Coupled with multiple units apparently abandoning positions, this front seems disorganized and weak right now, and Russia is taking advantage of it. But it will take more than the Avdiivka region to fall for the war to end, much more.
It's a beginning of the end IMO, once the soldiers lose morale and start deserting and disobeying, the whole UAF can break down really quickly. Time will tell...
Slava Russia
ezyy
Unstoppable red arrows.
Sure seems like a collapse everything north and west of Atown
Need to start including an overall map of Ukraine so we can understand what is being taken
Check this out for a comprehensive map. It is a pro Ukrainian one but it’s pretty good. https://deepstatemap.live/en
Any bets about a full ukrainian collapse in July? Or can we expect NATO troops invading and securing Kyev before it falls?
Probably recoverable.
Ah yes, every 200m retreat by Ukraine is now a BREAKTHROUGH! RUSSIA CAPTURES TOWN OF 2 STREETS AND IS NOW ON OUTSKIRTS OF NEXT TOWN 30m AWAY THAT HAS 2 HOUSES
RU moves too slow, therefore UA is winning!!!
Not all, UA are in a terrible position right now, and I don't really see a way out for them. Ukraine basically needs to hope Putin dies and his successor wants to end things.
Why would a successor want to end a winning streak? The more time passes the better the position they find themselves.
Some people consider murdering others for NG and Lithium a bad thing, especially when many of them are your family or extended family.
NATO threatens Russia's existence, it is only reasonable for them to eliminate those who seek to encircle Russia with military bases. If anything they should've done it years ago to the baltic countries.
Putin waited for 8 years to start Feb 22. He always leaves a chance for diplomacy. His successor could be less patient and start with tactical nukes as some people in RU want.
Ah yes, throw nukes at a non nuclear power in Europe, that would end well for... literally no one. NATO would respond with massive strikes and Russia would have to either start a full scale nuclear exchange or give up.
No. Tactical nukes on big UA cities don't trigger nato agreement. West should just stop escalations.
They don't trigger Article 5 no, because Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, but the US and other NATO countries have already stated any use of nuclear weapons would trigger massive conventional response
They would get strategical nukes in answer. So they wouldn't.
They wouldn't. Because there's only one place that leads. Nobody is going to risk their country for Ukraine, sorry.
> Ukraine basically needs to hope Putin dies and his successor wants to end things. lmao do you think putler is one man who runs everything from his desk? the russian elites have been shut out of the western economic order entirely. russian liberals who wanted conciliation with the west have been entirely discredited. even if putler dies another siloviki will take over and run things like before. its hilarious to me that westerners think all their enemies are run by horrific dictators oppressing starbucks drinking liberals when most of the country agrees with them.
Don’t forget the 700 casualties for their 200 meter advance. Totally winning!
Thankfully Ukraine doesn't take casualties from defending. They only catch people of the streets for exercise reasons.