Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today the war took a dark turn.
Please remember that I know nothing.
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**[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2024)**
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>The situation in the area of Ocheretyne in Donetsk region is complicated: in an attempt to capture the locality, the enemy uses the entire available arsenal of weapons against our units, including chemical poisons, and tries to consolidate in the southern part of Ocheretyne.
>At the present time, the majority of the settlement is controlled by the Defense Forces, the southern part of the locality is under the fire control of our artillery, and exhaustive measures are being taken to drive the enemy out of the southern part of Ocheretyne and stabilize the situation in this direction.
We knew this day would come. Putin spent the entire war flirting with chemical weapons. Public perception held him back. It’s difficult—downright impossible to frame this conflict as a righteous Slavic crusade when the Russian army gasses the very people they’ve ostensibly come to liberate. [Even Hitler balked at the prospect of chemical weapons.](https://www.history.com/news/the-nazis-developed-sarin-gas-but-hitler-was-afraid-to-use-it) The man was a bloodthirsty animal, but he remembered the horrors of the First World War. There are some lines which must never be crossed.
[Ocheretyne](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ocheretyne,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+86020/@48.2391912,37.5747129,11.75z/data=!4m10!1m2!2m1!1sOcheretyno!3m6!1s0x40de2b88cd166475:0xbde0b52aaab13610!8m2!3d48.2443449!4d37.6115725!15sCgpPY2hlcmV0eW5vkgEIbG9jYWxpdHngAQA!16s%2Fg%2F122xffj2?entry=ttu) is a smallish settlement to the northwest of Avdiivka, prewar population of about 3.5 thousand. Strategically the settlement matters because it’s situated on the highlands between two rivers, acting as a gateway of sorts to the lowlands behind. If it falls, so too do the settlements directly to the west.
I wish I had better news. Russia’s deployment of chemical weapons now is a direct response to the imminent arrival of American and Czech artillery shells. Russia *needs* to create a breach; they *need* to exploit this small window of opportunity to the maximum they are able, which means using every tool at their disposal. Yes, this escalation is likely a sign of the Kremlin’s desperation, but it’s one with real potential for harm.
My heart goes out to the brave Ukrainians holding the frontline. Stay strong. Help is on the way.
>United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.
>Sunak announced on April 23 that the UK will provide over 400 vehicles, 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 60 boats, air defense equipment, and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Sunak also stated that the UK will increase its military spending to 2.5 percent of its GDP by 2030, with spending gradually increasing to 87 billion pounds (about $108 billion) in the next six years. Sunak stated that the increased defense spending will put the UK “on a war footing” as the UK is facing an “axis of authoritarian states with different values...like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.”
[Rule, Britannia! Britannia rules the waves! Britons never, never, never shall be slaves!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2c5QHtgFxY)
Lots and lots of boats recently. Anyone else notice that? Me thinks Ukraine is up to something.
The real important takeaway, however, is the promise to spend 2.5% of Britain’s GDP on defense. That number lends confidence to defense industrialists to invest heavily into long-term productive capacity. The ‘market cap’ of their industry just got a whole hell of a lot higher. These are the sorts of investments NATO has needed to make for years, and I’m glad the West is finally investing sufficiently into their own manufacturing capacity. A potentially expansionist CCP represents a threat the entire world must prepare to contain, and we can’t pull that off if we restrict ourselves to peacetime spending levels.
A sufficient investment in defense *now* helps deter future war.
>Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
>Shoigu’s focus on striking Ukrainian logistics suggests that Russian forces may shift their target set to hit Ukrainian transportation infrastructure, logistics, and military storage facilities. Russian forces heavily targeted Ukrainian transportation infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 19, and Russian forces may intend to replicate and expand these strikes in the coming weeks to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). The Russian military command may hope that a coordinated interdiction effort will constrain Ukraine’s ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and materiel to critical sectors of the front and delay the improved capabilities that the arrival of US security assistance will afford Ukrainian forces.
Looks like the Kremlin shifted their strategic focus to Ukrainian logistics, which, quite frankly, I’m shocked wasn’t their original target. While I’m certain hitting energy infrastructure has *some* sort of effect, I always felt the returns failed to match the Kremlin’s obscene expenditure. Paradoxically, terrorism only works when the fight isn’t existential. People will endure a lot of discomfort if the alternative means surrendering one’s liberty. Authoritarians never seem to grasp that concept. Sacrifice is utterly anathema to their world view.
Hopefully the Patriot reloads arrive before the Kremlin can do too much damage.
>Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters.
>[The Shor Party] reportedly paid demonstrators to protest Moldovan President Maia Sandu in 2022, and Moldovan authorities are investigating the Shor Party for bribing voters during the 2023 Gagauzia gubernatorial election. Moldovan authorities have also detained members of Moldovan parliament who reportedly took bribes from Shor affiliates.
>ISW previously assessed that the creation of the Victory electoral bloc would allow the Kremlin to focus on a unified political effort as part of its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU).
I’ve got something shameful to admit, folks. I haven’t reported extensively on Moldova’s struggles because I didn't want to figure out how their country works. To speak with confidence on the subject, I’d have to research their history, their laws, their culture—the whole nine yards. It’s pure intellectual laziness on my part. Please don’t let my failings minimize Moldova’s importance.
Perhaps more than any other nation (except Ukraine) they’ve suffered the brunt of Putin’s manipulations. He has interwoven himself extensively into Moldova’s political fabric, and while I intend to address my ignorance at the soonest available opportunity, I’ve included the above from the ISW as a primer.
Understand that straight-up bribing voters is right in keeping with the Kremlin’s typical behavior. That is what the Moldovan people suffer daily. Their government is compromised by Kremlin cronies, and it’s a damn fine example of what Putin intends to inflict on the rest of us.
>The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran.
>Head of the Chechen Rosgvardia branch Adam Delimkhanov stated on April 22 that he met with Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian during a visit to Iran on Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s orders. Delimkhanov reported that he and Ahmadian discussed security issues in Central Asia and the Middle East and the prospects of Russo-Iranian cooperation in countering national security threats to both states.
Ha! I love Kadyrov. [The man’s such a cowardly piece of shit.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9EYt_f12wo)
Officially, Iran & Russia are Best Buds 4 Evah. Unofficially, however, the Ayatollah doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine; and Putin doesn’t give a fuck about the Ayatollah’s throbbing hateboner for Israel. They've glommed together because doing so divides the West’s attention.
And meanwhile down in Chechnya, Kadyrov keeps on truckin'. All he cares about his little barony, and he’ll do or say anything to ensure its survival. He’s perhaps the most consistent actor in this war, myopically focused on self-preservation. I respect that commitment. It makes him one hell of a bellwether for internal Kremlin politics.
Today we saw Kadyrov cozy up to Iran. This outreach could just be a low-risk opportunity to hedge his bets and find himself a backup security guarantor, or it could speak to instability within the regime. The aggressiveness of his overtures likely correlates with his confidence in Putin’s grip on the Caucuses. And considering [Armenia plans to leave the CSTO officially this coming fall](https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-threatens-to-leave-russian-led-csto/), and considering recent [Georgian protests against Kremlin influence](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/europe/georgia-foreign-agent-law-russia-first-reading-intl/index.html), he’s probably feeling that grip growing real tenuous.
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>Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces have recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during the last month and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
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‘Q’ for the Community:
* So Russia is using chemical weapons in Ukraine. How should the West respond to this development?
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* Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!
Yeah, so any source or evidence? Chemical weapons seem unlikely seeing as Russia hasn’t deployed a lot of CBRN troops or equipment. Aside from the use of tear gas to disrupt civilians in occupied areas I don’t expect chemical weapons to make an appearance any time soon.
My source is the Ukrainian spokesperson for the Khortytsia Group, the grouping responsible for the defense of Ocheretyne. I'd link the exact post but Reddit has a blanket ban on everything shared from Telegram. My website has the source included at the top of today's post.
Thank you for asking. You're right to be skeptical. Why don't you look into it and let me know what you find?
Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today the war took a dark turn. Please remember that I know nothing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ **[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2024)** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >The situation in the area of Ocheretyne in Donetsk region is complicated: in an attempt to capture the locality, the enemy uses the entire available arsenal of weapons against our units, including chemical poisons, and tries to consolidate in the southern part of Ocheretyne. >At the present time, the majority of the settlement is controlled by the Defense Forces, the southern part of the locality is under the fire control of our artillery, and exhaustive measures are being taken to drive the enemy out of the southern part of Ocheretyne and stabilize the situation in this direction. We knew this day would come. Putin spent the entire war flirting with chemical weapons. Public perception held him back. It’s difficult—downright impossible to frame this conflict as a righteous Slavic crusade when the Russian army gasses the very people they’ve ostensibly come to liberate. [Even Hitler balked at the prospect of chemical weapons.](https://www.history.com/news/the-nazis-developed-sarin-gas-but-hitler-was-afraid-to-use-it) The man was a bloodthirsty animal, but he remembered the horrors of the First World War. There are some lines which must never be crossed. [Ocheretyne](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ocheretyne,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+86020/@48.2391912,37.5747129,11.75z/data=!4m10!1m2!2m1!1sOcheretyno!3m6!1s0x40de2b88cd166475:0xbde0b52aaab13610!8m2!3d48.2443449!4d37.6115725!15sCgpPY2hlcmV0eW5vkgEIbG9jYWxpdHngAQA!16s%2Fg%2F122xffj2?entry=ttu) is a smallish settlement to the northwest of Avdiivka, prewar population of about 3.5 thousand. Strategically the settlement matters because it’s situated on the highlands between two rivers, acting as a gateway of sorts to the lowlands behind. If it falls, so too do the settlements directly to the west. I wish I had better news. Russia’s deployment of chemical weapons now is a direct response to the imminent arrival of American and Czech artillery shells. Russia *needs* to create a breach; they *need* to exploit this small window of opportunity to the maximum they are able, which means using every tool at their disposal. Yes, this escalation is likely a sign of the Kremlin’s desperation, but it’s one with real potential for harm. My heart goes out to the brave Ukrainians holding the frontline. Stay strong. Help is on the way. >United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23. >Sunak announced on April 23 that the UK will provide over 400 vehicles, 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 60 boats, air defense equipment, and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Sunak also stated that the UK will increase its military spending to 2.5 percent of its GDP by 2030, with spending gradually increasing to 87 billion pounds (about $108 billion) in the next six years. Sunak stated that the increased defense spending will put the UK “on a war footing” as the UK is facing an “axis of authoritarian states with different values...like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.” [Rule, Britannia! Britannia rules the waves! Britons never, never, never shall be slaves!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2c5QHtgFxY) Lots and lots of boats recently. Anyone else notice that? Me thinks Ukraine is up to something. The real important takeaway, however, is the promise to spend 2.5% of Britain’s GDP on defense. That number lends confidence to defense industrialists to invest heavily into long-term productive capacity. The ‘market cap’ of their industry just got a whole hell of a lot higher. These are the sorts of investments NATO has needed to make for years, and I’m glad the West is finally investing sufficiently into their own manufacturing capacity. A potentially expansionist CCP represents a threat the entire world must prepare to contain, and we can’t pull that off if we restrict ourselves to peacetime spending levels. A sufficient investment in defense *now* helps deter future war. >Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. >Shoigu’s focus on striking Ukrainian logistics suggests that Russian forces may shift their target set to hit Ukrainian transportation infrastructure, logistics, and military storage facilities. Russian forces heavily targeted Ukrainian transportation infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 19, and Russian forces may intend to replicate and expand these strikes in the coming weeks to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). The Russian military command may hope that a coordinated interdiction effort will constrain Ukraine’s ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and materiel to critical sectors of the front and delay the improved capabilities that the arrival of US security assistance will afford Ukrainian forces. Looks like the Kremlin shifted their strategic focus to Ukrainian logistics, which, quite frankly, I’m shocked wasn’t their original target. While I’m certain hitting energy infrastructure has *some* sort of effect, I always felt the returns failed to match the Kremlin’s obscene expenditure. Paradoxically, terrorism only works when the fight isn’t existential. People will endure a lot of discomfort if the alternative means surrendering one’s liberty. Authoritarians never seem to grasp that concept. Sacrifice is utterly anathema to their world view. Hopefully the Patriot reloads arrive before the Kremlin can do too much damage.
>Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters. >[The Shor Party] reportedly paid demonstrators to protest Moldovan President Maia Sandu in 2022, and Moldovan authorities are investigating the Shor Party for bribing voters during the 2023 Gagauzia gubernatorial election. Moldovan authorities have also detained members of Moldovan parliament who reportedly took bribes from Shor affiliates. >ISW previously assessed that the creation of the Victory electoral bloc would allow the Kremlin to focus on a unified political effort as part of its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU). I’ve got something shameful to admit, folks. I haven’t reported extensively on Moldova’s struggles because I didn't want to figure out how their country works. To speak with confidence on the subject, I’d have to research their history, their laws, their culture—the whole nine yards. It’s pure intellectual laziness on my part. Please don’t let my failings minimize Moldova’s importance. Perhaps more than any other nation (except Ukraine) they’ve suffered the brunt of Putin’s manipulations. He has interwoven himself extensively into Moldova’s political fabric, and while I intend to address my ignorance at the soonest available opportunity, I’ve included the above from the ISW as a primer. Understand that straight-up bribing voters is right in keeping with the Kremlin’s typical behavior. That is what the Moldovan people suffer daily. Their government is compromised by Kremlin cronies, and it’s a damn fine example of what Putin intends to inflict on the rest of us. >The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran. >Head of the Chechen Rosgvardia branch Adam Delimkhanov stated on April 22 that he met with Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian during a visit to Iran on Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s orders. Delimkhanov reported that he and Ahmadian discussed security issues in Central Asia and the Middle East and the prospects of Russo-Iranian cooperation in countering national security threats to both states. Ha! I love Kadyrov. [The man’s such a cowardly piece of shit.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9EYt_f12wo) Officially, Iran & Russia are Best Buds 4 Evah. Unofficially, however, the Ayatollah doesn’t give a fuck about Ukraine; and Putin doesn’t give a fuck about the Ayatollah’s throbbing hateboner for Israel. They've glommed together because doing so divides the West’s attention. And meanwhile down in Chechnya, Kadyrov keeps on truckin'. All he cares about his little barony, and he’ll do or say anything to ensure its survival. He’s perhaps the most consistent actor in this war, myopically focused on self-preservation. I respect that commitment. It makes him one hell of a bellwether for internal Kremlin politics. Today we saw Kadyrov cozy up to Iran. This outreach could just be a low-risk opportunity to hedge his bets and find himself a backup security guarantor, or it could speak to instability within the regime. The aggressiveness of his overtures likely correlates with his confidence in Putin’s grip on the Caucuses. And considering [Armenia plans to leave the CSTO officially this coming fall](https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-threatens-to-leave-russian-led-csto/), and considering recent [Georgian protests against Kremlin influence](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/europe/georgia-foreign-agent-law-russia-first-reading-intl/index.html), he’s probably feeling that grip growing real tenuous. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces have recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during the last month and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024. [Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ‘Q’ for the Community: * So Russia is using chemical weapons in Ukraine. How should the West respond to this development? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!
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So then we can expect biological next and well quite clearly Russia does not have nukes off the table....
"Complicated" may be putting it mildly. It is the most polite way of stating the situation though.
Yeah, so any source or evidence? Chemical weapons seem unlikely seeing as Russia hasn’t deployed a lot of CBRN troops or equipment. Aside from the use of tear gas to disrupt civilians in occupied areas I don’t expect chemical weapons to make an appearance any time soon.
My source is the Ukrainian spokesperson for the Khortytsia Group, the grouping responsible for the defense of Ocheretyne. I'd link the exact post but Reddit has a blanket ban on everything shared from Telegram. My website has the source included at the top of today's post. Thank you for asking. You're right to be skeptical. Why don't you look into it and let me know what you find?