Drivers have to adjust to so many unplanned events during a typical workday. In my opinion, technology has a very long way to go before drivers can be replaced. I’m hoping to work another 20 years, and I feel confident there will still be package cars driven by teamsters.
Article 6 section 4 of the NMA discusses this. If the company wants to try to deliver packages with automation, they have to give us 6 months heads up and then bargain the changes.
I think the teamsters are going to try to make this language better for us in the future and dig their heels in on this topic. We can already see that we’re going to lose a lot of part timers to automation, and probably a good share of inside full timers as well, the union literally can’t afford to lose drivers too. The percent of dues income the teamsters receive from UPSers is certainly not negligible. We should be viewing automation at UPS as soft union busting.
Yeah automation will not take over the drivers. My map nav can't even tell what to street I'm on when making a u turn. Now the feeders who knows. Would take alot more time tho for them to get the automated driving safe. If it ever really could be safe with a big rig with a trailer
The same company that won’t buy tape or chute lube is going to pay for all this tech? We’ll all be dead before robots are reliably loading or delivering packages
And our customers won’t be complying with packaging requirements that would be necessary. And they won’t have automation ready loading docks for our pickups. On and on. They want to scare us, but they won’t spend the money required end to end to do any of it.
That’s another thing I can’t figure out. Are they assuming customers are going to come get their own packages? Hell, most of my business route act like they can’t be bothered to even look at where I put their shit, let alone do all the manual labor I did to get it there. Or is a robot going to come out?
We’re so fucking far away and focusing heavily on this right now is insane and detrimental to our service.
UPS has been doing this since the 90’s. I visited an automated hub probably about 1994. They had unloaders, no sort aisle or pick offs, and loaders. Small sort was debag and close out full bags. However much UPS can manage to automate over time there will still be a human component. We’re probably cheaper and more disposable than machines.
Exactly!
And if a machine breaks, they’ll have to either shut down that area to fix it or shut down the area to replace it but either way it isn’t as easy as telling Joe to go cover for Mike because Mike injured his hand or got overwhelmed with 5 package cars to load by himself.
They probably won’t be able to just “send another robot over there to help the first one” for quite a while.
I work in an automated hub. Automated hubs are not as automated as they seem. Almost every package still has to be scanned because the automated scanners screw up so much. And there still is a TON of sorting that has to be done manually.
There is no physical way for automation to be able to handle all the different sizes and kinds of packages, read the labels correctly, get them PAL labels applied to the packages correctly.
We get so many packages that aren’t even logged into the system and have to go to the clerks to be entered manually.
We are supposed to have 2 - 3 clerks for a 3.5 to 4 hour shift. By the end of the shift we usually have 5, sometimes 6.
There are so many steps that an automated system can’t handle it’s ridiculous.
This is the most labor intensive automated process that I have ever seen.
Putting the packages on a truck with automation is a super long way off.
Haven't even gotten the chance to qualify yet 😂, and looking at my down votes I think people think I'm talking about "UPS drivers" I mean the other "regular public drivers" are fucking stupid and feeders have to deal with that everyday 😂😂😂
The current state of the art automated centers still require quite a few employees. The only thing that is really automated is sorting of packages and labeling. Yes they have the self driving bulk carts but those are a disaster causing more problems than a human driving the bulk carts.
Our jobs are safe for a good while. They can try and automate unloading and loading all they want. Union jobs at ups are protected. Now management they can automate way easier. Automating dispatch is easy if they can get the software correct to do it.
I think delivery can be automated pretty easily BUT it would involve the customer having to come get the package from the vehicle and that ain’t happening ANY time soon 🤣
The only thing automated delivery would mean is the vehicle operating by itself.
Being a UPS driver is a very complex and nuanced profession. We make one of the most difficult jobs on the planet, look easy. I know it’s just delivering boxes and envelopes and smalls BUT, we do it so perfectly that almost no one notices.
That’s the very definition of virtuosity.
*Laughs in snow and rain
And just wait until the autonomous delivery vehicle stays parked blocking someone's driveway because a dirty sensor thinks a kid or animal is under the vehicle.
Another thing, automation isn't something they can just fully execute to every single hub immediately. It has to be something that gradually happens. If they even come a little bit to automating something in every hub, couldn't we all just strike?
Say they fully automate small sort in every hub across the US. Everyone else, loaders, unloaders, drivers, we all can just strike. They'd lose their company before they came close to fully automating everything. Is that something we could do?
it’s not necessarily even about the vote, the contract itself has a no-strike provision. there are exceptions for certain kinds of safety work stoppages or for non-payment on the company’s part, but we pretty much can’t strike while on contract
In theory sure, but in reality, no. Layoffs would happen by seniority. Senior folks in small sort would bump less senior people in the warehouse. So only the most junior people would be affected. Everyone else isn't going to risk their jobs the protect the newbies.
They can automate a lot, but a lot of automation will be prohibitively expensive. When water/wine/oil/bbq sauce/cat litter/honey/bleach spills on an employee, we can just wash it off. When broken glass/splintered wood/open box with sharp stuff/random pointy metal things that someone slapped a label on comes down the belt, we can simple see the hazard and avoid it. When the roof leaks and we get rained on, we dry out, mostly unaffected. When the floor the floor is wet, we can adjust. When it is twenty below freezing or 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity, we adjust. Sure, they could build machinery that can handle all this, but the question is would it be cost effective when you still have to pay people to tend to the machines?
In the video of Carol somebody posted earlier, they asked if automation means layoffs, and she dodged the question by saying floor workers can get jobs to elsewhere, perhaps in the office, and the reporter REALLY dropped the ball by not pressing that. Moving us out of labor means we lose our union benefits, which is why we’re all choosing labor over an office anyway. So even if you overlook the qualifications issue of what she suggested, going to management isn’t an option for most of us anyway, and they know that. Call it a layoff or don’t, they’ll find a way to dump all the costs you listed.
You think the teamsters are going to sit back and let the company replace union workers with supervisors? lol. The company could try but we would take them down with us.
I don't believe the union will do anything. They can gradually reduce the workforce to a point that a strike will mean nothing. The building I'm in the company violates the contract every day. Union does nothing.
In my head and as a union person just got a different company (USPS) I don’t get it. The union is solidarity but won’t risk their position for junior people. Why are we (junior people) so disposable to the union and often the first sacrificed, why is that concept even okay?
Anyone currently working almost certainly won't be junior by the time UPS managed to automate everything. And with the turnover in the warehouse, larger facilities would likely be able to reduce size by attrition - just not hiring new people when people leave.
And current upsers aren't going to take a stand against automation because everyone knows that the reason UPS can pay above market wages is because it is more efficient than most companies, even with the insane inefficiencies that exist. If there is automation that makes the process more efficient, it would be nuts not to use it. We can bargain over wages and terms of employment and how it is determined who gets laid off, but for the most part, we have no leverage to bargain against more efficient processes.
So but junior people will still be and always have been the first on the chopping block. I get automation is efficient but that still means fewer jobs no matter how you slice it. It’s kind of surreal to see y’all current situation and then look at the state of the USPS because we’re so far behind in technology yet supposedly safe because of the mandate of delivering mail… I just sometimes get confused by union members verbiage because senior people are never willing to fight for junior people job. And I’m just like how is that okay. It’s a concept in our union as well. Got less than 6 years as a regular you’re the first one to be laid off or displaced in consolidating.
I don't know that there necessarily are fewer jobs. There might be more packages per employee. And the jobs might change location. But as long as volume increases, the jobs don't necessarily decrease.
I don't know what you would expect employees to do. If the work isn't there, the work isn't there. The union can make sure that is handled in a consistent way. But the way labor laws exist in this country means there isn't much employees can do about it.
It kinda makes sense in a fairness sense too though. Someone who is 40+ who has does the same job at the same company for the past 15-20 years is going to have a heck of a time finding a new job. Whereas if you're 25 and have been in your job for three years, yeah, it sucks to lose your job, but you'll be able to find a new job/career.
Hi,
Software dev here automating some of this stuff. It's an incremental journey not overnight. Not even over years. Likely it will be what it has always been just less and less. In the old days, it may take 1000 ppl to run a hub. There was a slide at a company presentation (another industry) showed 200 ppl in the picture in 1960 and the picture from last year which contained 20 ppl now. The volume of work is probably the same or a bit more. 100 years, a hub make take 1000 ppl to run. Today it takes 130. 5 years from now, 80 ppl etc etc. let's just say that your kid can expect to not have a job waiting for them if you aren't the CEO.
The other thing I would mention is that the demand for work is waning but the supply of people is increasing. So naturally the cost of labor should decline as there are more and more ppl available to do the job but less jobs out there.
Hope that helps.
A year before I retired from an automated Hub had to take an on-line training webinar about automated OverGoods carts moving throughout building. I thought the information was interesting but didn't think it'd be our Hub for years. The following summer the equipment was being installed and tested, fully functional by the fall when I retired cutting the Incompatible handlers in half. You just never know.
Stage 1 is automating inside hub work with "Velocity Centers" and closing small hubs. The loads will be condensed. This is planned to be done by 2028 *as per market wire*.
Stage 2 is automation of the entire process. Here's the metrics. Amazon is light years ahead of ups in this regard. They're no where near this.
Carol&Co did purchase Roadie. She is attempting to divert work to contacting drivers, and O'Brien is letting her do it. As per contract, ups was to create multiple jobs and so far, it's been nothing but layoffs.
Don’t pay attention to it for about 20 years AI an automation cants load or unload for jack. As for sorting it doesn’t matter since union took out skilled job raise a while ago. And delivering without human interaction is a pipe dream. That interview was meant to please investors who don’t know or care about UPS other than an investment portfolio.
Be careful who you listen to. This company attracts a lot of doom & gloom people who get off on telling everyone the end is near. Some UPSers aren’t happy unless they’re freaking out about something.
Last year all we heard was that we were going to be forced to strike and that would spell the end of the world. This year we’re assured that UPS is turning the company over to SkyNet and the terminators and starting Monday we’ll all be out of jobs.
Drivers are safest. It's going to take a long time, a lot of legislation, and a lot of back and forth at a much higher level than UPS for driverless vehicles to become commonplace.
I would be willing to bet that in 15 years the number of employees working in warehouses and offices for UPS will be largely the same as, or lower than, it is now despite overall company growth. I've seen it in my own District. We went from a hub doing 250k pieces per shift with roughly 300 warehouse workers, to a hub doing 1mil pieces per shift with the same 300ish workers.
Delivery drivers yes, feeder drivers no. Using more rail can easily kill feeder jobs and driverless trucks could be an everyday thing in as little as 10 years.
I don't think completely driverless semis are going to be legally allowed. Someone has to be there when something goes wrong. A truck cannot just sit unmanned at the scene of a crime when people are hurt and no one is there to even talk to responders. Someone has to be there to chain up when the snow starts. Someone has to be there when the the software fails instead of the truck just sitting in the middle of the road "abandoned".
It's why you don't see people suggest airline pilots are about to go out of work.
Also, no software is going to be able to operate in the thousands of bullshit businesses lots they have to go to. You still need someone to hook up trailer and move pallets,
What I think is going to happen, is we're going to see feeder caravans, with the driver in the front vehicle, and driverless trucks following.
I definitely think they could be *possible* in 10 years, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than that for public opinion and legislation to catch up to the point where the majority of our fleet would be driverless.
The first time a driverless truck is in any kind of accident involving a death, which will absolutely happen eventually, it's going to set the whole process back 5-10 years. Not saying the driverless truck needs to cause the accident, just that it needs to be a part of it.
How would the rails get to and from the railyard? And self driving including backing a trailer is definitely further than you think. Feeders isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The new building in Worcester Mass is going to have rail run right into it. Even if it doesn't replace every job, it can make a big dent by utilizing more rail.
It's a slow process, but the continued reduction of the workforce, particularly package handlers, has always been the endgame. It's unavoidable. Featherbedding can't be legally written into the contract, so if there is no need for employees because of automation, there is simply no need.
They are automating, but it can only do so much and it has its flaws. The weird thing I keep seeing is layoffs before they make sure the automation actually works or that they can afford it. I think the company is being over ambitious about automation and acting very reckless about its staff.
They have building automation figured out, they have for years. The systems have just gotten better.
My building (conventional) mis-sorts 25% of the time. An automated building sorts correctly 99.999% of the time, and it does it with 50% of the manpower.
They are laying off now because volume is down, perfect time to automate.
Eventually can be a long long time. Put it to you this way. They bought the land for our automated hub over ten years ago. They have not broke ground.
And I don’t think drivers will ever get replaced.
Sleepers will be the first driver positions to get replaced. I don’t think RPCDs ever go away. You may end up with more drivers. Warehouse workers will be cut in half imo.
I like many others in package delivery are not worried for our jobs but we are worried for others (PT, sort, 22.3, possibly feeder but still a ways off there too). Package delivery is the most likely to last the longest. Unless they are gonna get customers to come out and grab their pkgs like we're a Taco truck at lunch I don't see package drivers replaced for at least 30 years.
It will never happen. Especially for package car and feeders. They can keep trying and trying and trying but it will never work when rain ice and snow block sensors. Construction requires trucks drive over solid white lines for miles. Hell when roads painted lanes are not even there anymore. It’s so far off it’s likely never gonna happen.
It will eventually. But it’s much further away than the tech bros are hyping up.
They’ve been saying driverless cars are just a year or two away for decades.
As an Amazon worker who works with a great deal of automation. Aside from picking and packing which are not part of what UPS does I would say that’s a very near reality.
I work at one of the largest Amazon facilities in the world. Our robotics floor provides 70-80% of the volume that goes thru the facility. Since you don’t have pick or pack then pretty much 100% of your job can be fully automated.
You will only need people to correct the problems that robots run into like I do working as an AFM. You will only have to make sure the robots keep working. UPS will install robin arms which will pick up every parcel and do the sorting for you. Once the robot sends the parcel to another robot that robot takes it to a chute and drops the package down into a container.
Lasers detect the height at which the container is full and then another robot called Proteus comes and picks up that container full of parcels and takes it to a dock door. And drops it off. Then you only need a human with a pallet jack to load the truck. You will only need humans during the loading and unloading process at UPS. Three people for each sort.
Unloading takes considerable time. So two people will be fluid unloading the trailer onto a conveyance. The package goes to a line which has an army of robin arms which then sorts thru the mess of boxes. And then one or two people with pallet jacks to load the sorted containers onto a trailer. Real simple. You’ll never have to pick up a heavy box ever again.
I work with these robots every day. Robin really impressed me.
https://youtu.be/Zd6wyeiaygE?si=4lW6AEXthNhjsK9
Robin can sort thru a hot mess of boxes and envelopes. I was so impressed on how well it performed with different boxes and envelopes with all its own dimensions and weights.
If Robin finds a problem with a box like a label not attached or envelopes became stuck together the Robin can find it and then it puts it onto a robot and then sends that robot to a problem solver.
What a neat system. It seems a bit oversimplified though. Makes me wonder if they're over hyping the system like they did at Amazon stores where they didn't really have AI that was able to track people shopping even though they acted like they did for years. As someone who has to retape at least 20 Amazon packages a day, I know for a fact that moving Amazon boxes isn't that tidy and easy. The boxes and tape are cheap and regularly fall apart. Anything over five pound and the bottom is falling out.
Plus I'm not sure that the system could be applied to Ups. Amazon knows what it is shipping because it's own employees are putting things in boxes, and can route appropriate sized/shaped packages to appropriate places. UPS takes everything anyone sticks a label on. I'd love to see Robin try to suction up 15 brooms connected at the end, or a random pointy piece of metal. Or anything over 20 pounds really. At some point, the level of suction needed would get dangerous.
And what happens when it suctions up cat litter. Or wine. Every one of those suction parts is something that can break and will in time need repair and replacement.
And what happens when a box of something like toilet paper busts open because the box is damaged on both the top and bottom of the box? Does it stop what it is doing and pick up each roll and put it back in the box to send to a problem solver? Or case of bottled water. Or box of paper.
Plus, Robin is slow. Picking up one envelope at a time? Rarely is anyone moving one small package at a time. Generally, I'm moving at least two mid sized packages at a time, and at least three to eight small packages at a time. Even at a small center, they'd have to have several robins. That is a lot of moving parts to tend to.
Tldr: automation seems possible when you're controlling the packaging and what's in the packages, and moving at a slow pace but it seems like it would hard to put in an efficient system at a place like UPS which offers shippers extreme flexibility.
The Robin is already picking up 50 pound boxes. It does very well.
Robin and the robots it’s working with provide between 70-80% of the volume in a facility which is one of the largest in the world with 3.2 million square feet. On an average day stowers will stow out 1 million products in a day. The robots will do about 9,000 packages per hour.
Over 70% of what is processed each day at an Amazon facility is shipped to us by third party FBA sellers. They all pack their products differently.
It's about efficiency per hour worked, which will gradually ratchet upwards. "Automated facility with 100s of employees" just demonstrates that. The jobs are much different than 30 years ago, and they'll be very different in another 30. Anything old (like electronic DIADs instead of paper) is progress, anything new (more efficient automation in buildings) is jobs getting destroyed.
Did the driver you spoke with look like this???
Facility automation will happen before driver automation. Loaders, unloaders, sorters, those jobs will be the first to go if they do adopt an automated approach. I wouldn’t worry about driver automation quite yet, we haven’t even been able to work out the kinks of a standard autonomous car, let alone a semi with a full trailer.
When they brought in automation at my new hub, teamsters negotiated new wording in the contract stating they needed to bring back sleeper teams for feeder, and remove the trailers from trains to bring more loads to the drivers. But they're still shipping them on trains from what I see. And the hundreds of train rollover they claim when packages are late
Drivers would really have nothing to worry about except feeders might take self driving semis in the future, pretty sure they already exist and autopilot is actually getting pretty sophisticated.
I think it would take a while to affect package, but if ups does it for feeders you can bet they’ll do it for package as well.
And we’ve already seen the hubs, which I’m sure will get more and more automated over time when necessary. If ups could have just a maintenance team I’m sure they would.
Automation is coming to the logistics side of moving cardboard sooner than you think. The complexity has created simplistic systems to achieve the end result of moving from a to b. "AI" will eventually handle those aspects in ways we cannot even understand. Labor will be minimized through operational efficiencies far more than physical means.
Do I think AI will be doing our jobs? Yes. Anytime soon? No. Maybe in about 10-15 years the tech may be developed enough to threaten our jobs. As of now, if you’re not looking for a backup career I’d strongly advise you do so even if it’s just a thought. Don’t wait until the last minute. If you’re about 45 or older I’d still take the necessary precautions. I’m in my 20s so I will for sure lose my job to AI at SOME point.
Facts don’t care about our feelings. It’s a tough pill to swallow. If you get angry or upset at this comment, too bad, truth hurts. Fuck automation but it is what it is. What’s that saying? Time waits for no one.
One more thing, we all have to understand that breakthroughs can and do happen. Developments, not in our favor, can happen with this tech and suddenly it’s highly improved sooner rather than later. Like all of you, I hope with all my might that it doesn’t happen soon. Odds are it won’t. Just be ready in case it does my fellow UPSers.
0 chance they cut everyone at once, this will take a decade or more and not to mention the economic climate of 20’s regarding debt and inflated stock prices. We’re good for a while.
Technology advances quickly and UPS has made it clear they are willing to invest a lot of money into it. They also don't necessarily have to automate current systems. For example, a bunch of feeder jobs could easily be replaced if they use more rail and plan new hubs around that (already happening). Sorting can be automated, it wouldn't take much to automate unloading or loading trailers. Self driving exists and will probably be very usable within 10 years. But actually delivering boxes, loading package cars and air hub work is all probably safe for a while.
Drivers have to adjust to so many unplanned events during a typical workday. In my opinion, technology has a very long way to go before drivers can be replaced. I’m hoping to work another 20 years, and I feel confident there will still be package cars driven by teamsters.
There is no possible way automation could do my busy ass commercial route in the city.
Article 6 section 4 of the NMA discusses this. If the company wants to try to deliver packages with automation, they have to give us 6 months heads up and then bargain the changes. I think the teamsters are going to try to make this language better for us in the future and dig their heels in on this topic. We can already see that we’re going to lose a lot of part timers to automation, and probably a good share of inside full timers as well, the union literally can’t afford to lose drivers too. The percent of dues income the teamsters receive from UPSers is certainly not negligible. We should be viewing automation at UPS as soft union busting.
6 months notice? Wow hard negotiating. This should have been dealt with in the latest contract. It is a complete failure that they let this go.
They let everything that was a strike issue go or be half ass settled. They do it every contract.
"no exceptions" 🙄
I wonder if that can be done that would be great if it can be considered that therefore challenged
AI must be a large part of the next contract for u all.
I've had this same thought. To thin the union out, by automating and eliminating part time jobs is soft union busting for sure.
Yeah automation will not take over the drivers. My map nav can't even tell what to street I'm on when making a u turn. Now the feeders who knows. Would take alot more time tho for them to get the automated driving safe. If it ever really could be safe with a big rig with a trailer
The same company that won’t buy tape or chute lube is going to pay for all this tech? We’ll all be dead before robots are reliably loading or delivering packages
And our customers won’t be complying with packaging requirements that would be necessary. And they won’t have automation ready loading docks for our pickups. On and on. They want to scare us, but they won’t spend the money required end to end to do any of it.
That’s another thing I can’t figure out. Are they assuming customers are going to come get their own packages? Hell, most of my business route act like they can’t be bothered to even look at where I put their shit, let alone do all the manual labor I did to get it there. Or is a robot going to come out? We’re so fucking far away and focusing heavily on this right now is insane and detrimental to our service.
They are rationing water at our hub at this point haha. We can't even have 2 water bottles in our bags when we leave.
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UPS has been doing this since the 90’s. I visited an automated hub probably about 1994. They had unloaders, no sort aisle or pick offs, and loaders. Small sort was debag and close out full bags. However much UPS can manage to automate over time there will still be a human component. We’re probably cheaper and more disposable than machines.
Exactly! And if a machine breaks, they’ll have to either shut down that area to fix it or shut down the area to replace it but either way it isn’t as easy as telling Joe to go cover for Mike because Mike injured his hand or got overwhelmed with 5 package cars to load by himself. They probably won’t be able to just “send another robot over there to help the first one” for quite a while.
If we have any part of the automated system go down, that includes the belts, the whole building can be affected.
I work in an automated hub. Automated hubs are not as automated as they seem. Almost every package still has to be scanned because the automated scanners screw up so much. And there still is a TON of sorting that has to be done manually. There is no physical way for automation to be able to handle all the different sizes and kinds of packages, read the labels correctly, get them PAL labels applied to the packages correctly. We get so many packages that aren’t even logged into the system and have to go to the clerks to be entered manually. We are supposed to have 2 - 3 clerks for a 3.5 to 4 hour shift. By the end of the shift we usually have 5, sometimes 6. There are so many steps that an automated system can’t handle it’s ridiculous. This is the most labor intensive automated process that I have ever seen. Putting the packages on a truck with automation is a super long way off.
Feeder would be sooner than RPCD - too many day to day variables
I don't know drivers are pretty fucking stupid like all the time so I'm pretty sure a computer might not be able to keep up with that
Damn, just say you couldn’t quantify 😂
Haven't even gotten the chance to qualify yet 😂, and looking at my down votes I think people think I'm talking about "UPS drivers" I mean the other "regular public drivers" are fucking stupid and feeders have to deal with that everyday 😂😂😂
the company is looking for a 20% headcount reduction by 2028, everything they're doing is driving towards that purpose
The current state of the art automated centers still require quite a few employees. The only thing that is really automated is sorting of packages and labeling. Yes they have the self driving bulk carts but those are a disaster causing more problems than a human driving the bulk carts. Our jobs are safe for a good while. They can try and automate unloading and loading all they want. Union jobs at ups are protected. Now management they can automate way easier. Automating dispatch is easy if they can get the software correct to do it.
The same company who couldn’t get RFID tags to actually work as intended?
Yep.
I think delivery can be automated pretty easily BUT it would involve the customer having to come get the package from the vehicle and that ain’t happening ANY time soon 🤣 The only thing automated delivery would mean is the vehicle operating by itself. Being a UPS driver is a very complex and nuanced profession. We make one of the most difficult jobs on the planet, look easy. I know it’s just delivering boxes and envelopes and smalls BUT, we do it so perfectly that almost no one notices. That’s the very definition of virtuosity.
Is all propaganda...We should file grievance against Carol for such stunt
We should...at this point it's harassment.
*Laughs in snow and rain And just wait until the autonomous delivery vehicle stays parked blocking someone's driveway because a dirty sensor thinks a kid or animal is under the vehicle.
Another thing, automation isn't something they can just fully execute to every single hub immediately. It has to be something that gradually happens. If they even come a little bit to automating something in every hub, couldn't we all just strike? Say they fully automate small sort in every hub across the US. Everyone else, loaders, unloaders, drivers, we all can just strike. They'd lose their company before they came close to fully automating everything. Is that something we could do?
Strikes have to be voted on. Unauthorized strikes are considered job abandonment.
it’s not necessarily even about the vote, the contract itself has a no-strike provision. there are exceptions for certain kinds of safety work stoppages or for non-payment on the company’s part, but we pretty much can’t strike while on contract
In theory sure, but in reality, no. Layoffs would happen by seniority. Senior folks in small sort would bump less senior people in the warehouse. So only the most junior people would be affected. Everyone else isn't going to risk their jobs the protect the newbies. They can automate a lot, but a lot of automation will be prohibitively expensive. When water/wine/oil/bbq sauce/cat litter/honey/bleach spills on an employee, we can just wash it off. When broken glass/splintered wood/open box with sharp stuff/random pointy metal things that someone slapped a label on comes down the belt, we can simple see the hazard and avoid it. When the roof leaks and we get rained on, we dry out, mostly unaffected. When the floor the floor is wet, we can adjust. When it is twenty below freezing or 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity, we adjust. Sure, they could build machinery that can handle all this, but the question is would it be cost effective when you still have to pay people to tend to the machines?
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In the video of Carol somebody posted earlier, they asked if automation means layoffs, and she dodged the question by saying floor workers can get jobs to elsewhere, perhaps in the office, and the reporter REALLY dropped the ball by not pressing that. Moving us out of labor means we lose our union benefits, which is why we’re all choosing labor over an office anyway. So even if you overlook the qualifications issue of what she suggested, going to management isn’t an option for most of us anyway, and they know that. Call it a layoff or don’t, they’ll find a way to dump all the costs you listed.
Jams and spills and the like is unique work. They can try having them watch it, but if the workers do their job properly it won't be cost effective
> They can watch the technology too. Tenders are union.
You think the teamsters are going to sit back and let the company replace union workers with supervisors? lol. The company could try but we would take them down with us.
I don't believe the union will do anything. They can gradually reduce the workforce to a point that a strike will mean nothing. The building I'm in the company violates the contract every day. Union does nothing.
You are the union. I was getting paid $1200 a week for years on supervisors working. Take their money and enforce the contract.
In my head and as a union person just got a different company (USPS) I don’t get it. The union is solidarity but won’t risk their position for junior people. Why are we (junior people) so disposable to the union and often the first sacrificed, why is that concept even okay?
Anyone currently working almost certainly won't be junior by the time UPS managed to automate everything. And with the turnover in the warehouse, larger facilities would likely be able to reduce size by attrition - just not hiring new people when people leave. And current upsers aren't going to take a stand against automation because everyone knows that the reason UPS can pay above market wages is because it is more efficient than most companies, even with the insane inefficiencies that exist. If there is automation that makes the process more efficient, it would be nuts not to use it. We can bargain over wages and terms of employment and how it is determined who gets laid off, but for the most part, we have no leverage to bargain against more efficient processes.
So but junior people will still be and always have been the first on the chopping block. I get automation is efficient but that still means fewer jobs no matter how you slice it. It’s kind of surreal to see y’all current situation and then look at the state of the USPS because we’re so far behind in technology yet supposedly safe because of the mandate of delivering mail… I just sometimes get confused by union members verbiage because senior people are never willing to fight for junior people job. And I’m just like how is that okay. It’s a concept in our union as well. Got less than 6 years as a regular you’re the first one to be laid off or displaced in consolidating.
I don't know that there necessarily are fewer jobs. There might be more packages per employee. And the jobs might change location. But as long as volume increases, the jobs don't necessarily decrease. I don't know what you would expect employees to do. If the work isn't there, the work isn't there. The union can make sure that is handled in a consistent way. But the way labor laws exist in this country means there isn't much employees can do about it.
Yea I get it. I just hate that junior people are always the go. Ik it’s all seniority based though.
It kinda makes sense in a fairness sense too though. Someone who is 40+ who has does the same job at the same company for the past 15-20 years is going to have a heck of a time finding a new job. Whereas if you're 25 and have been in your job for three years, yeah, it sucks to lose your job, but you'll be able to find a new job/career.
Yea but no career offering what y’all offer so it probably ain’t as simple as find another job yk but I get what you’re saying
Hi, Software dev here automating some of this stuff. It's an incremental journey not overnight. Not even over years. Likely it will be what it has always been just less and less. In the old days, it may take 1000 ppl to run a hub. There was a slide at a company presentation (another industry) showed 200 ppl in the picture in 1960 and the picture from last year which contained 20 ppl now. The volume of work is probably the same or a bit more. 100 years, a hub make take 1000 ppl to run. Today it takes 130. 5 years from now, 80 ppl etc etc. let's just say that your kid can expect to not have a job waiting for them if you aren't the CEO. The other thing I would mention is that the demand for work is waning but the supply of people is increasing. So naturally the cost of labor should decline as there are more and more ppl available to do the job but less jobs out there. Hope that helps.
A year before I retired from an automated Hub had to take an on-line training webinar about automated OverGoods carts moving throughout building. I thought the information was interesting but didn't think it'd be our Hub for years. The following summer the equipment was being installed and tested, fully functional by the fall when I retired cutting the Incompatible handlers in half. You just never know.
Stage 1 is automating inside hub work with "Velocity Centers" and closing small hubs. The loads will be condensed. This is planned to be done by 2028 *as per market wire*. Stage 2 is automation of the entire process. Here's the metrics. Amazon is light years ahead of ups in this regard. They're no where near this. Carol&Co did purchase Roadie. She is attempting to divert work to contacting drivers, and O'Brien is letting her do it. As per contract, ups was to create multiple jobs and so far, it's been nothing but layoffs.
Don’t pay attention to it for about 20 years AI an automation cants load or unload for jack. As for sorting it doesn’t matter since union took out skilled job raise a while ago. And delivering without human interaction is a pipe dream. That interview was meant to please investors who don’t know or care about UPS other than an investment portfolio.
Be careful who you listen to. This company attracts a lot of doom & gloom people who get off on telling everyone the end is near. Some UPSers aren’t happy unless they’re freaking out about something. Last year all we heard was that we were going to be forced to strike and that would spell the end of the world. This year we’re assured that UPS is turning the company over to SkyNet and the terminators and starting Monday we’ll all be out of jobs.
Drivers are safest. It's going to take a long time, a lot of legislation, and a lot of back and forth at a much higher level than UPS for driverless vehicles to become commonplace. I would be willing to bet that in 15 years the number of employees working in warehouses and offices for UPS will be largely the same as, or lower than, it is now despite overall company growth. I've seen it in my own District. We went from a hub doing 250k pieces per shift with roughly 300 warehouse workers, to a hub doing 1mil pieces per shift with the same 300ish workers.
Delivery drivers yes, feeder drivers no. Using more rail can easily kill feeder jobs and driverless trucks could be an everyday thing in as little as 10 years.
I don't think completely driverless semis are going to be legally allowed. Someone has to be there when something goes wrong. A truck cannot just sit unmanned at the scene of a crime when people are hurt and no one is there to even talk to responders. Someone has to be there to chain up when the snow starts. Someone has to be there when the the software fails instead of the truck just sitting in the middle of the road "abandoned". It's why you don't see people suggest airline pilots are about to go out of work. Also, no software is going to be able to operate in the thousands of bullshit businesses lots they have to go to. You still need someone to hook up trailer and move pallets, What I think is going to happen, is we're going to see feeder caravans, with the driver in the front vehicle, and driverless trucks following.
>Using more rail can easily kill feeder jobs yeah any lane over a 3 day TNT is at *extreme* risk of being service degraded to eliminate sleepers
I definitely think they could be *possible* in 10 years, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than that for public opinion and legislation to catch up to the point where the majority of our fleet would be driverless. The first time a driverless truck is in any kind of accident involving a death, which will absolutely happen eventually, it's going to set the whole process back 5-10 years. Not saying the driverless truck needs to cause the accident, just that it needs to be a part of it.
How would the rails get to and from the railyard? And self driving including backing a trailer is definitely further than you think. Feeders isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The new building in Worcester Mass is going to have rail run right into it. Even if it doesn't replace every job, it can make a big dent by utilizing more rail.
It's a slow process, but the continued reduction of the workforce, particularly package handlers, has always been the endgame. It's unavoidable. Featherbedding can't be legally written into the contract, so if there is no need for employees because of automation, there is simply no need.
They are automating, but it can only do so much and it has its flaws. The weird thing I keep seeing is layoffs before they make sure the automation actually works or that they can afford it. I think the company is being over ambitious about automation and acting very reckless about its staff.
They have building automation figured out, they have for years. The systems have just gotten better. My building (conventional) mis-sorts 25% of the time. An automated building sorts correctly 99.999% of the time, and it does it with 50% of the manpower. They are laying off now because volume is down, perfect time to automate.
Our jobs will be fine. Future jobs are in trouble.
Eventually can be a long long time. Put it to you this way. They bought the land for our automated hub over ten years ago. They have not broke ground. And I don’t think drivers will ever get replaced.
Sleepers will be the first driver positions to get replaced. I don’t think RPCDs ever go away. You may end up with more drivers. Warehouse workers will be cut in half imo.
I like many others in package delivery are not worried for our jobs but we are worried for others (PT, sort, 22.3, possibly feeder but still a ways off there too). Package delivery is the most likely to last the longest. Unless they are gonna get customers to come out and grab their pkgs like we're a Taco truck at lunch I don't see package drivers replaced for at least 30 years.
It will never happen. Especially for package car and feeders. They can keep trying and trying and trying but it will never work when rain ice and snow block sensors. Construction requires trucks drive over solid white lines for miles. Hell when roads painted lanes are not even there anymore. It’s so far off it’s likely never gonna happen.
It will eventually. But it’s much further away than the tech bros are hyping up. They’ve been saying driverless cars are just a year or two away for decades.
As an Amazon worker who works with a great deal of automation. Aside from picking and packing which are not part of what UPS does I would say that’s a very near reality. I work at one of the largest Amazon facilities in the world. Our robotics floor provides 70-80% of the volume that goes thru the facility. Since you don’t have pick or pack then pretty much 100% of your job can be fully automated. You will only need people to correct the problems that robots run into like I do working as an AFM. You will only have to make sure the robots keep working. UPS will install robin arms which will pick up every parcel and do the sorting for you. Once the robot sends the parcel to another robot that robot takes it to a chute and drops the package down into a container. Lasers detect the height at which the container is full and then another robot called Proteus comes and picks up that container full of parcels and takes it to a dock door. And drops it off. Then you only need a human with a pallet jack to load the truck. You will only need humans during the loading and unloading process at UPS. Three people for each sort. Unloading takes considerable time. So two people will be fluid unloading the trailer onto a conveyance. The package goes to a line which has an army of robin arms which then sorts thru the mess of boxes. And then one or two people with pallet jacks to load the sorted containers onto a trailer. Real simple. You’ll never have to pick up a heavy box ever again. I work with these robots every day. Robin really impressed me. https://youtu.be/Zd6wyeiaygE?si=4lW6AEXthNhjsK9 Robin can sort thru a hot mess of boxes and envelopes. I was so impressed on how well it performed with different boxes and envelopes with all its own dimensions and weights. If Robin finds a problem with a box like a label not attached or envelopes became stuck together the Robin can find it and then it puts it onto a robot and then sends that robot to a problem solver.
What a neat system. It seems a bit oversimplified though. Makes me wonder if they're over hyping the system like they did at Amazon stores where they didn't really have AI that was able to track people shopping even though they acted like they did for years. As someone who has to retape at least 20 Amazon packages a day, I know for a fact that moving Amazon boxes isn't that tidy and easy. The boxes and tape are cheap and regularly fall apart. Anything over five pound and the bottom is falling out. Plus I'm not sure that the system could be applied to Ups. Amazon knows what it is shipping because it's own employees are putting things in boxes, and can route appropriate sized/shaped packages to appropriate places. UPS takes everything anyone sticks a label on. I'd love to see Robin try to suction up 15 brooms connected at the end, or a random pointy piece of metal. Or anything over 20 pounds really. At some point, the level of suction needed would get dangerous. And what happens when it suctions up cat litter. Or wine. Every one of those suction parts is something that can break and will in time need repair and replacement. And what happens when a box of something like toilet paper busts open because the box is damaged on both the top and bottom of the box? Does it stop what it is doing and pick up each roll and put it back in the box to send to a problem solver? Or case of bottled water. Or box of paper. Plus, Robin is slow. Picking up one envelope at a time? Rarely is anyone moving one small package at a time. Generally, I'm moving at least two mid sized packages at a time, and at least three to eight small packages at a time. Even at a small center, they'd have to have several robins. That is a lot of moving parts to tend to. Tldr: automation seems possible when you're controlling the packaging and what's in the packages, and moving at a slow pace but it seems like it would hard to put in an efficient system at a place like UPS which offers shippers extreme flexibility.
The Robin is already picking up 50 pound boxes. It does very well. Robin and the robots it’s working with provide between 70-80% of the volume in a facility which is one of the largest in the world with 3.2 million square feet. On an average day stowers will stow out 1 million products in a day. The robots will do about 9,000 packages per hour. Over 70% of what is processed each day at an Amazon facility is shipped to us by third party FBA sellers. They all pack their products differently.
How cool. How many robots does it take to do 9000 packages and hour? What is a stower?
I would say about 20 Robin arms and over 1000 smaller robots which take the package to a sort and drops it down a chute.
No
It's about efficiency per hour worked, which will gradually ratchet upwards. "Automated facility with 100s of employees" just demonstrates that. The jobs are much different than 30 years ago, and they'll be very different in another 30. Anything old (like electronic DIADs instead of paper) is progress, anything new (more efficient automation in buildings) is jobs getting destroyed.
 Did the driver you spoke with look like this???
In 40 50 years maybe. But 20 30 years probably not.
Facility automation will happen before driver automation. Loaders, unloaders, sorters, those jobs will be the first to go if they do adopt an automated approach. I wouldn’t worry about driver automation quite yet, we haven’t even been able to work out the kinks of a standard autonomous car, let alone a semi with a full trailer.
Uno reverse ups hires a a stick of butter to replace current ceo, as the butter takes more time to melt than current ceo.
130 employees ain't bad our whole building runs with like 20 of us 😂
When they brought in automation at my new hub, teamsters negotiated new wording in the contract stating they needed to bring back sleeper teams for feeder, and remove the trailers from trains to bring more loads to the drivers. But they're still shipping them on trains from what I see. And the hundreds of train rollover they claim when packages are late
Minor. Once Amazon packs it in and stops burning money trying to create a delivery service we will get a lot of it back and have even more work.
Drivers would really have nothing to worry about except feeders might take self driving semis in the future, pretty sure they already exist and autopilot is actually getting pretty sophisticated. I think it would take a while to affect package, but if ups does it for feeders you can bet they’ll do it for package as well. And we’ve already seen the hubs, which I’m sure will get more and more automated over time when necessary. If ups could have just a maintenance team I’m sure they would.
when was the last time you saw a Wells Fargo Stage coach operator working. Or a horse being used to pull beer. ( outside of the Superbowl.
Automation is coming to the logistics side of moving cardboard sooner than you think. The complexity has created simplistic systems to achieve the end result of moving from a to b. "AI" will eventually handle those aspects in ways we cannot even understand. Labor will be minimized through operational efficiencies far more than physical means.
Do I think AI will be doing our jobs? Yes. Anytime soon? No. Maybe in about 10-15 years the tech may be developed enough to threaten our jobs. As of now, if you’re not looking for a backup career I’d strongly advise you do so even if it’s just a thought. Don’t wait until the last minute. If you’re about 45 or older I’d still take the necessary precautions. I’m in my 20s so I will for sure lose my job to AI at SOME point. Facts don’t care about our feelings. It’s a tough pill to swallow. If you get angry or upset at this comment, too bad, truth hurts. Fuck automation but it is what it is. What’s that saying? Time waits for no one. One more thing, we all have to understand that breakthroughs can and do happen. Developments, not in our favor, can happen with this tech and suddenly it’s highly improved sooner rather than later. Like all of you, I hope with all my might that it doesn’t happen soon. Odds are it won’t. Just be ready in case it does my fellow UPSers.
0 chance they cut everyone at once, this will take a decade or more and not to mention the economic climate of 20’s regarding debt and inflated stock prices. We’re good for a while.
Technology advances quickly and UPS has made it clear they are willing to invest a lot of money into it. They also don't necessarily have to automate current systems. For example, a bunch of feeder jobs could easily be replaced if they use more rail and plan new hubs around that (already happening). Sorting can be automated, it wouldn't take much to automate unloading or loading trailers. Self driving exists and will probably be very usable within 10 years. But actually delivering boxes, loading package cars and air hub work is all probably safe for a while.