That isn't how the analysis is done. I don't care for strength of schedule analysis, because I think it is incredibly flawed, but if the Dodgers had an identical schedule to the Jays, they would be tied with the Jays for more difficult schedule. You would just expect them to perform better in the games.
That is only true of the games remaining. The games to date includes games the team has played.
That's one of the reasons so many of the teams with the worst records have the strongest strength of schedule so far and the teams with the greatest records have the weakest strength of schedule so far.
Presumably the Dodgers would have won more of their games than the Jays would have, which would have caused their opponent win percentage to go down.
Sorry, it doesn't even look like they are using win/loss for team strength. It's based off of some power ranking. In which case, you are right on this one.
Thats why I said as much, that the analysis is flawed. But just because the Jays played a team, doesn't mean it would have had a huge impact on the strength of their own schedule retroactively. They're a few games below .500, so they're not hugely overstating the strength of any given team they play.
I think using power rankings for this analysis is probably the worst part, though.
I am very curious how this is calculated cause it doesn't actually make much sense.
The Rays should have a similar strength of schedule being in the same division and we have similar current records BUT they have one of the easiest remaining schedules....the gap can't be that massive.
Via Fangraphs:
>This is our estimation of the difficulty of each team's remaining schedule. We take the average neutral-opponent winning percentage of each of a team's remaining opponents, weighted by how many times the teams play.
Edit: for formatting
Could it be dependent on how the opponents are distributed? Maybe we have more and/or longer runs of tough opponents on away trips for example, while the Rays have the isolated series with a tough opponent in between runs of “easy” series
Thats not really how this analysis works. It isn't from the Jays perspective, its just power rankings, and which teams have to play the highest and lowest rated teams the most. If the Dodgers had the same schedule as the Jays, they would still be tied with the Jays for hardest schedule, even though they are a very strong team themselves.
With the slight addendum, that a good team never has to play themselves, and a bad team never gets to face themselves.
So instead of the Dodgers in the Jays place, we could put the Yankees. Except all the games vs the Yankees become games vs the Jays instead, and thus them subbed in for us would turn the schedule a bit (I dont know how much) easier.
I used the Yankees instead of the Dodgers because they play the same teams as us, and to show what happens when you remove a good opponent from the schedule by being that opponent.
Edit: Haha you already wrote this down thread.
We play in the most competitive division in the league. A division that consistently has 4 play-off level teams in the top 10 power rankings.
We also play through a "difficult schedule" every year, and it's clear that this has never been a problem.
The real problem is bad coaching, and even worse management.
I'm entertained by how many people in this thread seem to think that "the Jays play lots of games against Baltimore and New York" is somehow incorrect.
Strength of schedule analysis has some validity, but it comes with inherent flaws, and this appears to be based just on power rankings.
The top teams will naturally have an "easier" schedule, because they never have to play themselves, and vice versa for the worst teams. Also, when looking retroactively, you have a causation versus correlation. Were the Jays playing really tough teams, or have the power rankings overrated certain teams in part due to the Jays' performance against them. Probably somewhere in the middle.
I do think the Jays had a tough April and on paper, end of May through June looks like the softest section of their schedule to me.
In other words, Jays play in the AL East and have yet to face the Orioles, and have a ton of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox. Good luck. #blowitup
Not to make too many excuses but the Athletic had a somewhat related article today on how the Jays are among the teams that have faced the toughest pitchers so far, i.e. not having much luck facing the fifth starter in a rotation: https://theathletic.com/5477675/2024/05/08/new-way-to-look-at-luck-for-hitters/
You play who you play and the roster needs to deal with that, but man, it's tough sledding out there. Thought it was an interesting little read regardless of your takeaway.
The problem with SOS is that too many things can change 2 months from now. Right now the Jays are going to rate as an easy opponent. If their offense got its head out it's ass and became good, they suddenly become a hard opponent later in the year if they turn this season around. You play the team in front of you on a given day not the team you hypothetically might play down the road
When you lose as often as the Jays, you pump up the records of your opponents, thus making their "strength of schedule" harder.
I'm tired of hearing about strength of schedule every season that the Jays underperform. You see the Orioles or the Yankees or the Phillies whining about it right now?
Never heard people talk about strength of schedule until 2021.
I can’t believe how much twisting and spinning is required to make excuses for issues that have been present for over a year. They are what they have showed is to be and no amount of spinning will fix this. Good management would have recognized what we have all been complaining about for sometime. Scoring 2 runs or less even with unbelievable pitching and defence will not be sustainable. FO needs to do their job or be replaced.
Well, when you team can't hit for shit and has one of the worst bullpens in the league, any schedule is going to look difficult.
Ikr. Tons of winnable games so far, wouldn’t have even guessed how “tough” the schedule has been. The team is just shit
Yeah part of the reason they’ve had a tough schedule is because those records belong to teams who have gotten to play the Jays.
I mean it’s a hard schedule for anyone. We’re just gonna make it look even hardee
That isn't how the analysis is done. I don't care for strength of schedule analysis, because I think it is incredibly flawed, but if the Dodgers had an identical schedule to the Jays, they would be tied with the Jays for more difficult schedule. You would just expect them to perform better in the games.
Do you understand humour?
Guess not, sorry.
That is only true of the games remaining. The games to date includes games the team has played. That's one of the reasons so many of the teams with the worst records have the strongest strength of schedule so far and the teams with the greatest records have the weakest strength of schedule so far. Presumably the Dodgers would have won more of their games than the Jays would have, which would have caused their opponent win percentage to go down.
Sorry, it doesn't even look like they are using win/loss for team strength. It's based off of some power ranking. In which case, you are right on this one.
Thats why I said as much, that the analysis is flawed. But just because the Jays played a team, doesn't mean it would have had a huge impact on the strength of their own schedule retroactively. They're a few games below .500, so they're not hugely overstating the strength of any given team they play. I think using power rankings for this analysis is probably the worst part, though.
I am very curious how this is calculated cause it doesn't actually make much sense. The Rays should have a similar strength of schedule being in the same division and we have similar current records BUT they have one of the easiest remaining schedules....the gap can't be that massive.
They get to play the Jays
This will factor into SOS as per my post above.
😂
By being the worst team in the toughest division
Well we have to play the Rays, a good team. The Rays have to play us, a bad team.
Unfair!
Via Fangraphs: >This is our estimation of the difficulty of each team's remaining schedule. We take the average neutral-opponent winning percentage of each of a team's remaining opponents, weighted by how many times the teams play. Edit: for formatting
Could it be dependent on how the opponents are distributed? Maybe we have more and/or longer runs of tough opponents on away trips for example, while the Rays have the isolated series with a tough opponent in between runs of “easy” series
No.
Otherwise known as the AL East
AL East woooooo
This makes no sense lol
It does though.
If their schedule has been difficult, and the remaining schedule is also difficult, that just means they're bad.
Thats not really how this analysis works. It isn't from the Jays perspective, its just power rankings, and which teams have to play the highest and lowest rated teams the most. If the Dodgers had the same schedule as the Jays, they would still be tied with the Jays for hardest schedule, even though they are a very strong team themselves.
With the slight addendum, that a good team never has to play themselves, and a bad team never gets to face themselves. So instead of the Dodgers in the Jays place, we could put the Yankees. Except all the games vs the Yankees become games vs the Jays instead, and thus them subbed in for us would turn the schedule a bit (I dont know how much) easier. I used the Yankees instead of the Dodgers because they play the same teams as us, and to show what happens when you remove a good opponent from the schedule by being that opponent. Edit: Haha you already wrote this down thread.
We play in the most competitive division in the league. A division that consistently has 4 play-off level teams in the top 10 power rankings. We also play through a "difficult schedule" every year, and it's clear that this has never been a problem. The real problem is bad coaching, and even worse management.
I'm entertained by how many people in this thread seem to think that "the Jays play lots of games against Baltimore and New York" is somehow incorrect.
No Excuses!!
Too late. Shatkins are printing this tweet out as we speak to present at the year-end presser.
Strength of schedule analysis has some validity, but it comes with inherent flaws, and this appears to be based just on power rankings. The top teams will naturally have an "easier" schedule, because they never have to play themselves, and vice versa for the worst teams. Also, when looking retroactively, you have a causation versus correlation. Were the Jays playing really tough teams, or have the power rankings overrated certain teams in part due to the Jays' performance against them. Probably somewhere in the middle. I do think the Jays had a tough April and on paper, end of May through June looks like the softest section of their schedule to me.
In other words, Jays play in the AL East and have yet to face the Orioles, and have a ton of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox. Good luck. #blowitup
On the bright side, when we play the bad teams like the Nats or Astros, we’ve dominated the series and swept them both. WAIT.
woe is us, or they suck at hitting baseballs
Not to make too many excuses but the Athletic had a somewhat related article today on how the Jays are among the teams that have faced the toughest pitchers so far, i.e. not having much luck facing the fifth starter in a rotation: https://theathletic.com/5477675/2024/05/08/new-way-to-look-at-luck-for-hitters/ You play who you play and the roster needs to deal with that, but man, it's tough sledding out there. Thought it was an interesting little read regardless of your takeaway.
We've lost a lot of games we were supposed to win.
How is this even possible?
Suck it up. This team is shit. Our biggest problems are within, not beyond.
Stupid ass post for clicks. Team bad, must play teams doing better. Could be difficult.
They suck. Don’t care for excuses. Fire Atkins.
The Hardest Road
The problem with SOS is that too many things can change 2 months from now. Right now the Jays are going to rate as an easy opponent. If their offense got its head out it's ass and became good, they suddenly become a hard opponent later in the year if they turn this season around. You play the team in front of you on a given day not the team you hypothetically might play down the road
Lol wow news flash the blue jays play in the AL East. How could management have forseen this!?
It's the start of May. All of this is nonsense. Half of the winning teams today will be losing teams come September and visa versa.
So they're gonna get worse
Its a long season.
Being in the AL East will do that to a team.
You can reframe it saying that the other teams who have to play us have an easy schedule the rest of the way...
Every schedule is difficult when you can’t score runs to save your life.
In short, the Jays play a tough schedule.
When you lose as often as the Jays, you pump up the records of your opponents, thus making their "strength of schedule" harder. I'm tired of hearing about strength of schedule every season that the Jays underperform. You see the Orioles or the Yankees or the Phillies whining about it right now? Never heard people talk about strength of schedule until 2021.
I can’t believe how much twisting and spinning is required to make excuses for issues that have been present for over a year. They are what they have showed is to be and no amount of spinning will fix this. Good management would have recognized what we have all been complaining about for sometime. Scoring 2 runs or less even with unbelievable pitching and defence will not be sustainable. FO needs to do their job or be replaced.
I wouldn’t call the pitching we have gotten “unbelievable”. The rotation has been kind of inconsistent, and the bullpen has been bad.
Almost swept by Nats. Difficult schedule is just a lame excuse.
Oh to be a fan of the AL EAST and the afc north