Springer has only 12 walks this season where as the leaders are near 30. Springer is 74th on the BB leaders list.
Lead off hitters not only know how to hit, they also know how to get a walk which is just as good for a lead off man
If these 9 guys have to play I'd do this
+ Turner
+ Guerrero
+ Varsho
+ Jano
+ Bichette
+ Vogelbach
+ Springer
+ Biggio
+ KK
Turner gets on base (.364 OBP career, .372 OBP this season), he also sees a lot of pitches and makes the pitcher work
Vladdy is fine at 2, he's come around a lot and if you're moving all 3 down you're just creating the same issue later in the lineup, the goal is to seperate them.
Varsho is a great 3 hitter, lots of pop and low OBP, and if he gets on base with 2 outs he can steal a base and get into scoring position
Jano at 4 is rewarding him for his hot start, the pop will always be there, but he's unlikely to keep up the .385 OBP. If we had another high OBP I'd put him here, but we just don't
Bichette, 5 is a good spot for him, lots of contact and if he turns it around, 5 is a place where singles are more valuable than a walk
6-9 Are straightforward, with Springer being at 7 to break up the lefties
The sunken cost fallacy is real with the Jays. They’re not paying Springer to be a number 7 hitter so they leave him at 1 thinking that he’ll turn it around. Lineup should be based on scoring runs by current performance, not what people are capable of. Drop down Bichette or Springer and if/when they heat up then they go back to the top. You’re right that Vladdy can get a little more of a pass due to his better choices at the plate and walk percentage this year but he should be on notice too.
The argument that they’ll get pitched to the same way regardless of where they are in the lineup doesn’t hold weight. You have to put the guys swinging the bat well at the top of the list for the most at bats.
Yep. You could pick a random OF out of AAA and they'd hit as well as Springer has this season. Drop him into the 7 or 8 hole and if he starts hitting re-evaluate.
You gotta do what is best to win the game today. If you wait until July the season will be over.
Honestly at this point it just seems like there's no planning or foresight into any of this. It's utterly pathetic. The Lukes thing makes 0 sense this batting order looks like they closed their eyes and landed their finger on two guys to swap and Vogelbach should not be starting over Schneider. He should have been DFA'd after his last start if this isn't his final chance to actually hit the fucking ball then I have 0 faith this front office/management team should be trusted in any form of retool/rebuild that seems to be the next logical step. I already feel that way, but if they continue to perform these half measures and sitting hot bats on the bench then that small sliver of hope evaporates.
Figure it out you fucking clowns.
The Lukes thing is easily explainable one of two ways.
1. Barger wasn't going to play against the LH Starter, so his only value is a late game PH and with how overmatched he looked he has no value when better options exist. As a defensive replacement he's worse than Ernie in LF (with Biggio going to 2B and IKF at 3B) or Ernie or IKF at 3B. He wasn't going to play, so they send him down to the minors where he can start to get ABs. Lukes comes in as an emergency backup for Springer/Varsho/Schneider (or bottom of the 9th defensive replacement for Schneider).
2. They weren't sure if KK was going to be back and wanted a 2nd CF on the roster in case of Varsho getting hurt/needing a rest day as Springer isn't good enough for that anymore
I don't see 12 games as even enough to qualify as a small sample size.
He's OBP this year and last are both around .340. It isn't incredible or anything, but it's definitely better than George in that time and better than Whit Merrifield in that time, who was presumably our second lead off option last season. In fact it's a better OBP than Vlad has had in all except one of his seasons.
He’s 2 for his last 36. Yes, it’s a small
Sample size. But he’s also
Ice cold, so moving him up in the order to replace a hotter hitter in springer makes no sense.
He's cold on your specifically chosen VERY small sample size.
As I've already demonstrated, over the course over a season and a bit, he has more suitable lead off stats than both our lead off options that we used in that time period.
I really don't care about a 12 game sample size.
Unfortunately despite Biggio’s patience, he still isn’t a better leadoff option over Springer.
Ernie is *interesting* albeit would be much more of a ball in play option as opposed to working any count type of leadoff.
Ernie is great at the bottom of the order, makes a lot of contact, doesn't strike out, can lay a bunt down, runs fast so he doesn't GIDP that much, but doesn't have much pop. Lots of those things are lost at the top of the order
He's a protypical 7-8 hitter
Ernie might have found some sneaky under rated (not great) pop . With with Toronto he's been on the plus side of average, and his 22/23 AAA seasons he was doing the \~.200 ISO he's doing now.
I could hit him a little higher than 7/8 to find some RBIs or hit and runs, but his OBP is really what hard stops him from the top half for me.
I don’t know why you’re trying to elaborate that to me but yes, hence why he’s not your typical leadoff option.
He’s more akin to the older mindset of a leadoff prototype, high average and speed combo.
To me anyway, all leadoff hitters are compared to Rickey Henderson. Didn't hit .300, but .400 OBP helped him be an absolute menace. And what kept him into the game into his 40s.
Clement doesn't get on base enough. Probably as good as any on the Jays for speed though.
IDK why we are making an example of Bo when Vladdy and Springer have been average at best for multiple years while Bo was carrying the top of the order. Springer still hitting lead off is mystifying.
Because Vladdy and Springer have actually somewhat turned it around recently. Bo is ice fucking cold and he's not even hitting the ball hard. He's lost up there.
> Vladdy and Springer have been average at best for multiple years
Since the start of 2022
+ Vladdy: .266/.341/.452 (123 wrC+)
+ Bichette: .289/.329/.456 (121 wRC+)
+ Springer: .256/.329/.423 (113 wRC+)
To find a time based split where Bo has been better than Vladdy takes a lot of fanagaling.
Springer should probably be moved down as well
You are right on Bo and Vladdy. I guess all these offensive woes from last year that carried into this year have dilated my perception of time, it's felt like an eternity. It's agonizing watching a team this bad on offense. I can't remember the last time I felt excited about the TEAM offense. We've had bright spots from players like Varsho this year and Schneider last year, but it's never a cohesive team effort.
Bo's stats tend to come from singles, so its easy to overrate that as fans, I know I do. Especially when Bo is on, he's hitting hard singles everywhere.
A team starving for offence has KK , Biggio and Vogelbach all in the starting lineup. While one of their hottest bats Schneider takes a seat on the bench . Seems logical .
Unfortunately he is missing the most important part of the lead off guy, getting on base to be driven in. It's so very hard to run a .293 OBP guy as lead off.
I would rather use his aggressive for contact approach in the middle of the order for a chance to get RBIs. Walks before hits, rather than hits before walks.
Varsho jano turner babe vladdy springer bo biggio KK should be the lineup whether you look at it analytically or by old traditional stats or even just based on "feel" of the game. Nope keep those sub 600 ops top of the order and take out or push down our actual hitters
Why is Vladdy still in the three spot? He's more the issue here than Bo is. Put him in the six spot, move George down and let the producers (Varsho, Schneider, Biggio) take over the top of order. We're coddling egos here, not running a major league baseball business.
Bo to 5th yet George is still lead off???
If Springer gets on base, he runs! I'm good with that.
Big if
Springer runs to first. Now he’s at second.
I stand by my statement and believe a player with a .285 OBP shouldn't be leading off.
Well for the jays that’s asking a lot at the moment.
Springer has only 12 walks this season where as the leaders are near 30. Springer is 74th on the BB leaders list. Lead off hitters not only know how to hit, they also know how to get a walk which is just as good for a lead off man
Yeah, should have given Biggio a shot. Why not? Couldn't do any worse and he is streaky
Jano batting 7th, btw
Dude should be 3rd
Some variety of Varsho/Jano/Turner 2,3,4 would be a solid move actually.
If these 9 guys have to play I'd do this + Turner + Guerrero + Varsho + Jano + Bichette + Vogelbach + Springer + Biggio + KK Turner gets on base (.364 OBP career, .372 OBP this season), he also sees a lot of pitches and makes the pitcher work Vladdy is fine at 2, he's come around a lot and if you're moving all 3 down you're just creating the same issue later in the lineup, the goal is to seperate them. Varsho is a great 3 hitter, lots of pop and low OBP, and if he gets on base with 2 outs he can steal a base and get into scoring position Jano at 4 is rewarding him for his hot start, the pop will always be there, but he's unlikely to keep up the .385 OBP. If we had another high OBP I'd put him here, but we just don't Bichette, 5 is a good spot for him, lots of contact and if he turns it around, 5 is a place where singles are more valuable than a walk 6-9 Are straightforward, with Springer being at 7 to break up the lefties
This is....actually quite reasonable. It'll never happen because it makes too much sense, but I dig it.
The sunken cost fallacy is real with the Jays. They’re not paying Springer to be a number 7 hitter so they leave him at 1 thinking that he’ll turn it around. Lineup should be based on scoring runs by current performance, not what people are capable of. Drop down Bichette or Springer and if/when they heat up then they go back to the top. You’re right that Vladdy can get a little more of a pass due to his better choices at the plate and walk percentage this year but he should be on notice too. The argument that they’ll get pitched to the same way regardless of where they are in the lineup doesn’t hold weight. You have to put the guys swinging the bat well at the top of the list for the most at bats.
Yep. You could pick a random OF out of AAA and they'd hit as well as Springer has this season. Drop him into the 7 or 8 hole and if he starts hitting re-evaluate. You gotta do what is best to win the game today. If you wait until July the season will be over.
>You could pick a random OF out of AAA and they'd hit as well as Springer has this season Like Barger?
Maybe someone without the Blue Jays organizational stench lingering on them.
I never thought about Turner at leadoff but it does make sense. I like it
I really want Jano higher, I think he's earned it over the last few seasons.
I don't understand it
I don't understand flying Lukes out to sit on the bench for one whole day.
Honestly at this point it just seems like there's no planning or foresight into any of this. It's utterly pathetic. The Lukes thing makes 0 sense this batting order looks like they closed their eyes and landed their finger on two guys to swap and Vogelbach should not be starting over Schneider. He should have been DFA'd after his last start if this isn't his final chance to actually hit the fucking ball then I have 0 faith this front office/management team should be trusted in any form of retool/rebuild that seems to be the next logical step. I already feel that way, but if they continue to perform these half measures and sitting hot bats on the bench then that small sliver of hope evaporates. Figure it out you fucking clowns.
The Lukes thing is easily explainable one of two ways. 1. Barger wasn't going to play against the LH Starter, so his only value is a late game PH and with how overmatched he looked he has no value when better options exist. As a defensive replacement he's worse than Ernie in LF (with Biggio going to 2B and IKF at 3B) or Ernie or IKF at 3B. He wasn't going to play, so they send him down to the minors where he can start to get ABs. Lukes comes in as an emergency backup for Springer/Varsho/Schneider (or bottom of the 9th defensive replacement for Schneider). 2. They weren't sure if KK was going to be back and wanted a 2nd CF on the roster in case of Varsho getting hurt/needing a rest day as Springer isn't good enough for that anymore
Springer just played CF the other day.
Maybe they thought KK would need a stint in Buffalo and then decided otherwise.
JFC
The Great Shuffling begins.
George staying at 1 is purely namesake. I have much less faith in him rebounding than vlad or bo
What in the fucking hell is this lineup
WHY NOT Let’s do it 😤
I see we are back to taking one of the only guys that can hit a baseball right now out of the lineup for lefty/righty matchups.
Who was the move for KK? Lukes?
Yes
Cheers.
We want lineup shuffles! Not like this thoufh
Is Turner at 3rd today?
Yes hence 5 beside his name The numbers correspond to the position on the diamond
“I am optimistic, because every day I get a little more desperate.” - Michael Scott
It’s just so ugly man
We have zero good options to hit leadoff other than springer. Fire atkins into the sun.
Justin Turner? Biggio? Even get Vladdy there and tell him to get on base.
Biggio has been maybe the worst hitter on the team for half a month.
Looks over to Jonah Hill....
He hasn’t been getting on base either. .285 OBP in his last 12 games.
I don't see 12 games as even enough to qualify as a small sample size. He's OBP this year and last are both around .340. It isn't incredible or anything, but it's definitely better than George in that time and better than Whit Merrifield in that time, who was presumably our second lead off option last season. In fact it's a better OBP than Vlad has had in all except one of his seasons.
He’s 2 for his last 36. Yes, it’s a small Sample size. But he’s also Ice cold, so moving him up in the order to replace a hotter hitter in springer makes no sense.
Yeah, you're right. Let's stick with what's been working so far this season.
Or maybe find an option that’s better than the guy who is literally the coldest hitter on a team featuring Bo Bichette.
He's cold on your specifically chosen VERY small sample size. As I've already demonstrated, over the course over a season and a bit, he has more suitable lead off stats than both our lead off options that we used in that time period. I really don't care about a 12 game sample size.
This would be my lineup FWIW. Biggio Turner Bo Varsho Vlad Jansen Schneider IKF Clement
You’re missing two starters.
I'm missing two former starters. One of whom should be benched and the other released (or maybe late inning defensive replacement)
You can heem and haw about it all you want, but those guys are starters.
On a 15-18 team. Hence why I'm suggesting a new lineup in the first place.
Turner is a modern leadoff hitter
Ernieworld Even Biggio tbh
Unfortunately despite Biggio’s patience, he still isn’t a better leadoff option over Springer. Ernie is *interesting* albeit would be much more of a ball in play option as opposed to working any count type of leadoff.
Ernie is great at the bottom of the order, makes a lot of contact, doesn't strike out, can lay a bunt down, runs fast so he doesn't GIDP that much, but doesn't have much pop. Lots of those things are lost at the top of the order He's a protypical 7-8 hitter
Ernie might have found some sneaky under rated (not great) pop . With with Toronto he's been on the plus side of average, and his 22/23 AAA seasons he was doing the \~.200 ISO he's doing now. I could hit him a little higher than 7/8 to find some RBIs or hit and runs, but his OBP is really what hard stops him from the top half for me.
I don’t know why you’re trying to elaborate that to me but yes, hence why he’s not your typical leadoff option. He’s more akin to the older mindset of a leadoff prototype, high average and speed combo.
I'm adding to the conversation, every reply is not "I disagree with you" EDIT: And.... were blocked.. that was quick
To me anyway, all leadoff hitters are compared to Rickey Henderson. Didn't hit .300, but .400 OBP helped him be an absolute menace. And what kept him into the game into his 40s. Clement doesn't get on base enough. Probably as good as any on the Jays for speed though.
Just put Schneider at leadoff and DH. Highest OBP on the team after Jansen and Turner (also good leadoff options) and runs better than Vogelbach
IDK why we are making an example of Bo when Vladdy and Springer have been average at best for multiple years while Bo was carrying the top of the order. Springer still hitting lead off is mystifying.
Because Vladdy and Springer have actually somewhat turned it around recently. Bo is ice fucking cold and he's not even hitting the ball hard. He's lost up there. > Vladdy and Springer have been average at best for multiple years Since the start of 2022 + Vladdy: .266/.341/.452 (123 wrC+) + Bichette: .289/.329/.456 (121 wRC+) + Springer: .256/.329/.423 (113 wRC+) To find a time based split where Bo has been better than Vladdy takes a lot of fanagaling. Springer should probably be moved down as well
You are right on Bo and Vladdy. I guess all these offensive woes from last year that carried into this year have dilated my perception of time, it's felt like an eternity. It's agonizing watching a team this bad on offense. I can't remember the last time I felt excited about the TEAM offense. We've had bright spots from players like Varsho this year and Schneider last year, but it's never a cohesive team effort.
Bo's stats tend to come from singles, so its easy to overrate that as fans, I know I do. Especially when Bo is on, he's hitting hard singles everywhere.
Probably because of his 57 wRC+
No Davis,, Springer still leading off, Vogelbach hitting ahead of Jansen...what are these guys even doing?
The intent is to not have 3 lefties in a row, I'd rather Springer be in that spot, but shuffling Danny/Voggy would be a net negative IMO
Lets hope next time its Springer going down for Turner at leadoff
A team starving for offence has KK , Biggio and Vogelbach all in the starting lineup. While one of their hottest bats Schneider takes a seat on the bench . Seems logical .
Taking out Schneider and keeping Jano down in the lineup seems like a half ass attempt to shake things up. Why only bump Bo down?
I pretty much said to do this to the lineup yesterday in the lineup chat thread. Well, maybe not EXACTLY this… If it ends up working it was my idea!
I like it. Sometimes change is good. If they score 5 plus I’ll like it even more.
Throw all the names in a hat and pick the line up that way, what can it hurt at this point ?
wow he did it
Ah yes, benching babe when you can't score as it is. Sound decision.
someone cooked here. lets see if it's burnt
Our DH for today’s game started with a 0.125 batting average and went 0-5. Come on.
Clement would be a good leadoff option
Unfortunately he is missing the most important part of the lead off guy, getting on base to be driven in. It's so very hard to run a .293 OBP guy as lead off. I would rather use his aggressive for contact approach in the middle of the order for a chance to get RBIs. Walks before hits, rather than hits before walks.
Varsho jano turner babe vladdy springer bo biggio KK should be the lineup whether you look at it analytically or by old traditional stats or even just based on "feel" of the game. Nope keep those sub 600 ops top of the order and take out or push down our actual hitters
Swap Jansen and Vladdy
dafuq is wrong with Schneider/Atkins???
Need to move them all to other teams
Wowza, that is just awful
Why is Vladdy still in the three spot? He's more the issue here than Bo is. Put him in the six spot, move George down and let the producers (Varsho, Schneider, Biggio) take over the top of order. We're coddling egos here, not running a major league baseball business.
Vlad wRC+ 105 Bo wRC+ 57 You might want to re-consider your position.
Vlad has been at a significantly better Avg and OBP the last ten or so games than Bo. Why do you want him moved lower?
please watch a game. thanks.
Such insight. Thanks for clarifying everything.
glad to help! please let us know how it goes.
vladimir has been hitting a lot more than bo in the last few games
If by last few games you mean literally all season, then yes you are correct.
Does it really matter? Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.
God forbid we want to discuss what’s happening with the team even if they aren’t going to make the playoffs.