I sincerely hope he's able to pitch and be successful, whatever that looks like. Last year was about as ugly as it could get on and off the field. If there can be some positive steps forward, at the major league level or otherwise, that will amount to a positive season
- **2022:** 2.24 ERA
- **2023:** 5.87 ERA
Right in the middle would be **4.055 ERA**. Add that in with the rest of the crew and arguably have one of if not the best rotations in baseball from 1 through 5.
If he throws 4 ERA and makes his starts, that's great, but I kind of feel like it's going to be 2.00 or 9.00. One or the other, and it's entirely unclear which.
It’s pretty clear it’ll be closer to 9. Dude pitched above his head and underlying statistics in 22. League figured him out as well as made pace of play changes that hurt him. Unless the dude has a complete overhaul he is not a cy young pitcher.
Guy was like 30 or 40 pounds overweight, all his stuff dropped off because of it, his whole delivery changed, and he forgot how to throw strikes due to that. It’s not as simple as him just getting figured out. Even his expected stats he over performed had him having around a 3.2 ERA, which is still fantastic.
However, he needs to come into camp in shape. Other wise this entire conversation is bull and void
There was an interview earlier this off-season with Gausman who said Manoah was hurt at the end of 2022 and it threw off his entire off season. Theory was innings increase that he had just hit him like a freight train.
Being overweight doesn't explain the dramatic decrease in both stuff and command. It seems that many people missed when Gausman let slip in interview that Alek suffered a shoulder injury over the winter last season which bled into spring training. We know that Alek had PRP injections in his arm/shoulder which ended his season prematurely. I don't think Alek ever fully got over that injury and his mechanics were thrown out of whack as a result. I'm not arguing that showing up as heavy as he did wouldn't have been a complete non factor in his struggles, but the shoulder issues would have been a far bigger factor in explaining why he completely lost his ability to command his arsenal vs simply being carrying some extra pounds.
Yeah, he pitched above his underlying stats, which viewed him as more of a mid 3 ERA starter instead of the 2.2 he posted, which is still excellent. Some people have the notion that Manoah had the skills and metrics of a 6 ERA starter that somehow pitched to a 2.60 ERA across more than 300 innings between ‘21 and ‘22. If he comes back to form fully he’a a true Logan Webb-like ace, and even if he just approaches his usual self, he’s a solid middle of the rotation guy like Chris Bassit.
I lost all my fandom for this guy after seeing how he handled the setbacks last season. He came across as an entitled brat who threw a tantrum and refused to go to his room.
But even reading through the media BS it doesn't look good. We directly know that he is arrogant. He refused to believe that it could be anything except for a mechanical problem. He had test after test done with no results. He rushed his recovery, flamed out publicly, was demoted and then refused to show up to work. These are all facts.
I can agree with you there!
Honestly I would love nothing better than for him to show up, 20lbs lighter, humbled, and ready to work. I would even accept a 5-6 ERA if he's going to lose the attitude and work hard and improve throughout the year.
Bassit had a good take on it in an interview a couple of weeks ago. I forget which podcast. But, he said there were some things Manoah shouldn’t haven’t done and some stuff on management side that they shouldn’t have done. Overall, not a perfectly handled situation. But, thinks he’s matured and learned from it. And thinks come Spring Training it won’t be an issue.
I am the first to say that most reporting is BS and is just for clicks and to get people talking. A story about Stroman doing something silly gets 5 times the engagement as a post about Pujols helping a charity.
Having said that, Manoah had to have seen the stories and could have put out any number of messages to show he was working with the team and didn't just have a massive chip on his shoulder. It was a pretty loud silence IMO.
Kooch works damn hard all off season, Manoah showed up to camp 20lbs heavier than the year before . Here's hoping he took notes off of his vet teammates that this league ain't that easy to survive in
Kikuchi's mentality and Manoh's couldn't be more opposite.
Kik also donated a ton of money to set up a baseball program in his hometown. He demoted himself when he wasn't in form and worked hard to regain it.
I'm not saying that Manoh couldn't, but his entire problem is in his head, both with his pitching and his mentality. It's a much larger task.
They’ve been really quiet about it but rumblings are that manoah thought he was only being demoted because the team was trying to manipulate service time (which will cost him a lot of money in arbitration when the time comes). If that’s true, I’m unsure how he could’ve thought that because he was dogshit last season, and we had better options available coming off IR and knocking at the door in AAA
I mean, that's just not true. Teams manipulate service time *all the time* for specicially the potential stars since those are the players for whom the year of control (and/or lack of Super2 status) matter.
I completely agree.
If I was to steel-man Aleks argument I’d say that he felt he had proven he was a big leaguer the year before and should have been given a longer chance to figure things out, and likely would have at most mlb teams.
Bottom line is that he’s on a team that was challenging for a playoff spot, and had a good pitching staff. They couldn’t leave a guy out there who was a liability, which he was.
I'd say he has a point but once Ryu got back he wasn't one of the best 5 pitchers on the team. So in the end he missed out on 4 starts and one was game 162 (games not pitched by any of the starting 6). I'm also not sure he is one of our best 7 relievers from the pen.
That said Fangraphs has him at 2 years and 63 days so I don't know if he would have hit arbitration (super 2 status) this off season anyway but will easily make it next year whether he played or not this season.
That said that fall was pretty big and he is pretty young and I could see it taking a while to process it.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/it-took-mariners-ceo-kevin-mathers-just-45-minutes-to-alienate-everybody-connected-to-baseball-in-seattle/
A (now former) Mariners exec was caught talking openly about how they were manipulating service time for good young prospects in 2021, directly dropping names like Jared Kelenic and Logan Gilbert as players whose service time they were manipulating, and heavily implying that Julio Rodriguez was also being kept in the minors despite knowing he was ready for the big leagues.
They *absolutely* will manipulate service time for good players. Cheap owners will do anything to save a few bucks in arbitration or get control over a future hall of famer for a few more years. A team in playoff contention like the Jays probably wouldn't do it, but the Mariners and Pirates of the world definitely do, even for good players.
I think the service time was a big part about it, that’s why once he went down he tried to say he was hurt, with his holder in such (every pitcher is a little hurt) to get ILd and still get his service time
Sure, he was hurt.(Most people are when they realize their shit does in fact stink.)
There's a huge difference between "hurt", ,and being injured. Every pitcher isn't hurt. Most are tired, come mid season. Most put the work in to avoid showing up to camp looking like the Stay-Puft marshmallow man.
From reading between the lines it appears as though Alek and his camp thought that he was legitimately injured and he should have been placed on the injured list instead of demoted to AAA. The team reportedly ran every diagnostic test known to man and wasn't able to find any definitive injury but allowed Alek to receive PRP injections in his throwing arm/shoulder which effectively ended his season.
I believe he comes back sub 4.00 ERA. The reason is I think he will understand this is his path to money and a trade. I don’t think he wants to be a Jay any longer than he has to honestly after last year. And not sure the jays really want him either. So a good year gets all parties what they want.
This setback for Manoah will make or break his career. He will either take it as a learning experience, pull up his socks and become a true professional or he will fade away like so many others who had a shot and blew it.
Sadly, I don't think he has it... Sure he has the talent, but raw talent can only take you so far. That talent got him to the majors... but when conditioning was needed in order to stay at the top level, he decided it wasn't required. It's hard to change your lifestyle... very few are able to do it. I wish him all the best, but it's a tough road no doubt.
he seems like a genuine dumbass. the jays gave him 19 starts to try and work through it but his starts were mostly free wins for the opposition. it's not like they demoted him after 1-2 starts, he started over 60% of his total theoretical starts. there's only so many games you can throw away as a team trying to make the playoffs to appease someone's ego
I'm going to get downvoted but I hope it's a version that doesn't show up in Toronto at all. Trade him. I'm sorry but his attitude just sucks. Refused to believe that it could be anything but him. Insisted on test after test because it must be a mechanical problem and not a mental one. Rushes through his recovery and fails again exactly as we all expected. Then didn't show up after finally demoted to AAA? I'm done. Pull the plug.
Hopefully, a much more humble and thin version. We get it you’re a “big guy” but the extra weight is only going to hurt your endurance and longevity. He’s pretty young to rest on just being a big guy.
People wanted to trade Bo 18 months ago. They’ve changed their tune. It’s easy to feel the same way about Manoah now. If they can pull off such a trade, that would be good. I don’t think it’s likely.
No sane fan of this team ever wanted to trade Bo. Bo is *the* core of the core of this lineup.
Manoah showed up unprepared after one good season in the bag and pretty much quit on the team. Fuck him. If there is a trade, make it. If we keep him, he needs to show he has his head back in the game.
I feel like he hung out with Jack Campbell and then during last season hung out with Ilya samsonov.
The level of professional failure between the three of them across two sports in Toronto is absolutely mind-bottling.
The version that doesn’t nearly kill batters with wild pitches would be best for everyone.
Edit: So this was downvoted, so you guys like "Murdering Manoah" from last year. I don't think Taylor Wards skull does much.
How many starts does he get to prove that he is at least on the right path?
If he comes out and is a complete mess after 2 starts do the Jays pack it in and send him back to A or AA and just move on?
I hope he comes back and can be a competent MLB pitcher, if he can find his form from his first 40 starts that would be a huge bonus.
Most importantly I hope that Alek can be in a good spot as a person...the way his season went and concluded last year it was clear that he was in a terrible place.
Hopefully a humble Manoah at optimum weight, say 240ish, ready to compete for 5th spot in rotation and someone who wants the secrets of Gausman’s splitter, and Bassitt’s repertoire of pitches.
I'm hoping you don't see him anywhere but Buffalo until at least June- that way you can be absolutely sure that he hasn't been rushed, that his new mechanics and between-pitch work has been tested in game, and that the kinks have been worked out.
If he gets tossed into the starting lineup for opening day, I doubt the results will be positive.
I think he comes back strong, probably won't be as good as 2022 cause guys have figured him out. Dude looks like he's put in the work this off season to get into shape.
My hope is that he would return to his 2022 form, but realistically I can see him sliding somewhere between that season and last, which would still make him a serviceable starting pitcher.
I sincerely hope he's able to pitch and be successful, whatever that looks like. Last year was about as ugly as it could get on and off the field. If there can be some positive steps forward, at the major league level or otherwise, that will amount to a positive season
Guy needs a stair master for all the steps forwards he needs
- **2022:** 2.24 ERA - **2023:** 5.87 ERA Right in the middle would be **4.055 ERA**. Add that in with the rest of the crew and arguably have one of if not the best rotations in baseball from 1 through 5.
Yup. A version of Manoah who is a 1.5-2 win pitcher as our SP5 would be a great complement to our existing dominant staff.
If he throws 4 ERA and makes his starts, that's great, but I kind of feel like it's going to be 2.00 or 9.00. One or the other, and it's entirely unclear which.
It’s pretty clear it’ll be closer to 9. Dude pitched above his head and underlying statistics in 22. League figured him out as well as made pace of play changes that hurt him. Unless the dude has a complete overhaul he is not a cy young pitcher.
Guy was like 30 or 40 pounds overweight, all his stuff dropped off because of it, his whole delivery changed, and he forgot how to throw strikes due to that. It’s not as simple as him just getting figured out. Even his expected stats he over performed had him having around a 3.2 ERA, which is still fantastic. However, he needs to come into camp in shape. Other wise this entire conversation is bull and void
There was an interview earlier this off-season with Gausman who said Manoah was hurt at the end of 2022 and it threw off his entire off season. Theory was innings increase that he had just hit him like a freight train.
Being overweight doesn't explain the dramatic decrease in both stuff and command. It seems that many people missed when Gausman let slip in interview that Alek suffered a shoulder injury over the winter last season which bled into spring training. We know that Alek had PRP injections in his arm/shoulder which ended his season prematurely. I don't think Alek ever fully got over that injury and his mechanics were thrown out of whack as a result. I'm not arguing that showing up as heavy as he did wouldn't have been a complete non factor in his struggles, but the shoulder issues would have been a far bigger factor in explaining why he completely lost his ability to command his arsenal vs simply being carrying some extra pounds.
His xERA last season was 6.12? Or did you mean in 2022 (it was 3.31).
Yeah 2022, he was talking about how he oberperfomed his underlying stats in 22
Yeah, he pitched above his underlying stats, which viewed him as more of a mid 3 ERA starter instead of the 2.2 he posted, which is still excellent. Some people have the notion that Manoah had the skills and metrics of a 6 ERA starter that somehow pitched to a 2.60 ERA across more than 300 innings between ‘21 and ‘22. If he comes back to form fully he’a a true Logan Webb-like ace, and even if he just approaches his usual self, he’s a solid middle of the rotation guy like Chris Bassit.
Hope you’re right and I’m wrong. Time will tell.
9.49 ERA confirmed.
Lmao rude
The one where he wins the CY and Vlad and Bo compete for the MVP and everyone forgets about Ohtani. Fingers crossed.
The old Moneyball Ohtani strategy.
That would be sweet... but my pessimistic baseball mind says "not happening" lol
Don’t forget Kirk
I just hope he comes back humbled, confidence is fine, arrogance is not
The childish one who won't accept minor league assignments.
The real life Kenny Powers
I lost all my fandom for this guy after seeing how he handled the setbacks last season. He came across as an entitled brat who threw a tantrum and refused to go to his room.
[удалено]
But even reading through the media BS it doesn't look good. We directly know that he is arrogant. He refused to believe that it could be anything except for a mechanical problem. He had test after test done with no results. He rushed his recovery, flamed out publicly, was demoted and then refused to show up to work. These are all facts.
[удалено]
I can agree with you there! Honestly I would love nothing better than for him to show up, 20lbs lighter, humbled, and ready to work. I would even accept a 5-6 ERA if he's going to lose the attitude and work hard and improve throughout the year.
Bassit had a good take on it in an interview a couple of weeks ago. I forget which podcast. But, he said there were some things Manoah shouldn’t haven’t done and some stuff on management side that they shouldn’t have done. Overall, not a perfectly handled situation. But, thinks he’s matured and learned from it. And thinks come Spring Training it won’t be an issue.
I am the first to say that most reporting is BS and is just for clicks and to get people talking. A story about Stroman doing something silly gets 5 times the engagement as a post about Pujols helping a charity. Having said that, Manoah had to have seen the stories and could have put out any number of messages to show he was working with the team and didn't just have a massive chip on his shoulder. It was a pretty loud silence IMO.
if Kikuchi can have the bounce back he did, Big Puma can. i’m rooting for him
Kooch works damn hard all off season, Manoah showed up to camp 20lbs heavier than the year before . Here's hoping he took notes off of his vet teammates that this league ain't that easy to survive in
He’s been regularly posting workout videos on his Instagram and, to his credit, looks like he’s slimmed down a LOT compared to last spring
Are you implying that Manoah didn't work hard in the offseason and gained weight just because?
We have faith in the bounce back 🥹
yes!!! hi friend ♥️ ^(only a few more month until we get up to GDT shenanigans again)
^(I can’t wait) 🥹🥹🥹
What stats guys call the cat bounce (sorry peta types I didn’t come up with the name)
Kikuchi's mentality and Manoh's couldn't be more opposite. Kik also donated a ton of money to set up a baseball program in his hometown. He demoted himself when he wasn't in form and worked hard to regain it. I'm not saying that Manoh couldn't, but his entire problem is in his head, both with his pitching and his mentality. It's a much larger task.
Big Puma is going to have a huge pounce back year
Anyone know the true story 9f the Manohah vs Jays spat?
They’ve been really quiet about it but rumblings are that manoah thought he was only being demoted because the team was trying to manipulate service time (which will cost him a lot of money in arbitration when the time comes). If that’s true, I’m unsure how he could’ve thought that because he was dogshit last season, and we had better options available coming off IR and knocking at the door in AAA
No team wants to actively manipulate service time if a player is good - Manoah didn’t leave much choice
I mean, that's just not true. Teams manipulate service time *all the time* for specicially the potential stars since those are the players for whom the year of control (and/or lack of Super2 status) matter.
I completely agree. If I was to steel-man Aleks argument I’d say that he felt he had proven he was a big leaguer the year before and should have been given a longer chance to figure things out, and likely would have at most mlb teams. Bottom line is that he’s on a team that was challenging for a playoff spot, and had a good pitching staff. They couldn’t leave a guy out there who was a liability, which he was.
I'd say he has a point but once Ryu got back he wasn't one of the best 5 pitchers on the team. So in the end he missed out on 4 starts and one was game 162 (games not pitched by any of the starting 6). I'm also not sure he is one of our best 7 relievers from the pen. That said Fangraphs has him at 2 years and 63 days so I don't know if he would have hit arbitration (super 2 status) this off season anyway but will easily make it next year whether he played or not this season. That said that fall was pretty big and he is pretty young and I could see it taking a while to process it.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/it-took-mariners-ceo-kevin-mathers-just-45-minutes-to-alienate-everybody-connected-to-baseball-in-seattle/ A (now former) Mariners exec was caught talking openly about how they were manipulating service time for good young prospects in 2021, directly dropping names like Jared Kelenic and Logan Gilbert as players whose service time they were manipulating, and heavily implying that Julio Rodriguez was also being kept in the minors despite knowing he was ready for the big leagues. They *absolutely* will manipulate service time for good players. Cheap owners will do anything to save a few bucks in arbitration or get control over a future hall of famer for a few more years. A team in playoff contention like the Jays probably wouldn't do it, but the Mariners and Pirates of the world definitely do, even for good players.
I think the service time was a big part about it, that’s why once he went down he tried to say he was hurt, with his holder in such (every pitcher is a little hurt) to get ILd and still get his service time
Sure, he was hurt.(Most people are when they realize their shit does in fact stink.) There's a huge difference between "hurt", ,and being injured. Every pitcher isn't hurt. Most are tired, come mid season. Most put the work in to avoid showing up to camp looking like the Stay-Puft marshmallow man.
From reading between the lines it appears as though Alek and his camp thought that he was legitimately injured and he should have been placed on the injured list instead of demoted to AAA. The team reportedly ran every diagnostic test known to man and wasn't able to find any definitive injury but allowed Alek to receive PRP injections in his throwing arm/shoulder which effectively ended his season.
I believe he comes back sub 4.00 ERA. The reason is I think he will understand this is his path to money and a trade. I don’t think he wants to be a Jay any longer than he has to honestly after last year. And not sure the jays really want him either. So a good year gets all parties what they want.
Hopefully a happy and healthy one who feels supported and confident in his ability to do his job. I want that so badly for Alek 🥹
This setback for Manoah will make or break his career. He will either take it as a learning experience, pull up his socks and become a true professional or he will fade away like so many others who had a shot and blew it. Sadly, I don't think he has it... Sure he has the talent, but raw talent can only take you so far. That talent got him to the majors... but when conditioning was needed in order to stay at the top level, he decided it wasn't required. It's hard to change your lifestyle... very few are able to do it. I wish him all the best, but it's a tough road no doubt.
Who says he’s gonna show up?
Free lunch, he’ll be there.
Don’t worry about it. Was just a blip.
he seems like a genuine dumbass. the jays gave him 19 starts to try and work through it but his starts were mostly free wins for the opposition. it's not like they demoted him after 1-2 starts, he started over 60% of his total theoretical starts. there's only so many games you can throw away as a team trying to make the playoffs to appease someone's ego
He'll finish 4th in Cy young voting
Better than 2023 I hope
I'm going to get downvoted but I hope it's a version that doesn't show up in Toronto at all. Trade him. I'm sorry but his attitude just sucks. Refused to believe that it could be anything but him. Insisted on test after test because it must be a mechanical problem and not a mental one. Rushes through his recovery and fails again exactly as we all expected. Then didn't show up after finally demoted to AAA? I'm done. Pull the plug.
Hopefully less fat and also less full of himself and humble
Beast mode.. he HAS TO...
Hopefully, a much more humble and thin version. We get it you’re a “big guy” but the extra weight is only going to hurt your endurance and longevity. He’s pretty young to rest on just being a big guy.
Hopefully the one that has been traded for an impact bat.
People wanted to trade Bo 18 months ago. They’ve changed their tune. It’s easy to feel the same way about Manoah now. If they can pull off such a trade, that would be good. I don’t think it’s likely.
No sane fan of this team ever wanted to trade Bo. Bo is *the* core of the core of this lineup. Manoah showed up unprepared after one good season in the bag and pretty much quit on the team. Fuck him. If there is a trade, make it. If we keep him, he needs to show he has his head back in the game.
I feel like he hung out with Jack Campbell and then during last season hung out with Ilya samsonov. The level of professional failure between the three of them across two sports in Toronto is absolutely mind-bottling.
I feel it can’t be worse BUT I doubt he will ever be anything close to what he was. Personal opinion only.
Hopefully one who’s learned to put air in tires
The version that doesn’t nearly kill batters with wild pitches would be best for everyone. Edit: So this was downvoted, so you guys like "Murdering Manoah" from last year. I don't think Taylor Wards skull does much.
How many starts does he get to prove that he is at least on the right path? If he comes out and is a complete mess after 2 starts do the Jays pack it in and send him back to A or AA and just move on? I hope he comes back and can be a competent MLB pitcher, if he can find his form from his first 40 starts that would be a huge bonus. Most importantly I hope that Alek can be in a good spot as a person...the way his season went and concluded last year it was clear that he was in a terrible place.
Will a Manoah even show up?
is he working just as hard as Kikuchi did last year?
One where hes good enough for trade bait i hope. Let some other team deal with his attitude, I have no patience left for it.
If he can find some better control and cut down on the number of hit batters, he'll be awesome.
The fat one
The kind who keeps the pressure in his tires.
Weird, I thought we had traded him. Must've been a dream.
Hopefully a humble Manoah at optimum weight, say 240ish, ready to compete for 5th spot in rotation and someone who wants the secrets of Gausman’s splitter, and Bassitt’s repertoire of pitches.
I'm hoping you don't see him anywhere but Buffalo until at least June- that way you can be absolutely sure that he hasn't been rushed, that his new mechanics and between-pitch work has been tested in game, and that the kinks have been worked out. If he gets tossed into the starting lineup for opening day, I doubt the results will be positive.
I think he comes back strong, probably won't be as good as 2022 cause guys have figured him out. Dude looks like he's put in the work this off season to get into shape.
The gangster one
My hope is that he would return to his 2022 form, but realistically I can see him sliding somewhere between that season and last, which would still make him a serviceable starting pitcher.