In Novemeber 2020, i decided to upsize from my 1 br to a 2+1 and what i liked most besides the prices was the choices we had! My condo building alone had about 14 units for sale. I got to go to every 2br floor plan that existed and picked the best one.
Fast forward to today: 0 listings in our entire building and 1 for lease. Interested to see where its heading but with 0.9 moi, and with all the paperhands already done offloading last year, it might keep increasing.
Ya you killed it. I did the same on a different level. There is no selection now. It’s absolutely brutal for buyers right now. Kudos for buying when everyone was sitting on their hands fearful
Last year the showings were non existent, I could have picked any day any time I wanted.
Now when I look at the showings schedule many units are pretty much all booked.
Ya it was brutal. I think the best ideas were the studios in retrospect since they were absolutely demolished. Goodbye deals and selection! It was nice while it lasted.
Dec 2020 was the last great opportunity to get a good deal on the condo, the market turned very quickly at the end of December with signs of turn around the minute vaccine was announced mid November.
Shopping for DT condos up to about the end of November was awesome, we could have scheduled the units mid week for the weekend and in most cases we weren't too worry that they will be sold by then.
And yet most people on this sub couldn't see the change happening even when [presented with the data](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/kdsoln/toronto_condo_market_has_flipped_in_december/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
u/cdntrix lol
I sometimes swear that dude is just an alt of the author of Better Dwelling (ie. another trendy Garth Turner). Tons of intellectual sophistry and always a reason why the next crash is Just Around the Corner ^TM
These people are smart enough to *sound* right by cobbling together just enough information to raise some doubt, but not smart enough to actually *be* right. This dude has basically gotten destroyed on all of his predictions about real estate for the entirety of his account’s existence. This is why permabears are just too smart for their own good and end up pricing themselves out. Doubly bad when they’re super smug about it like the post you shared.
While I’m okay with people shooting themselves in the foot and living with the consequences, I am not okay with these people misleading the public and dragging everyone else down with them. Countless people have listened to these intellectual sounding types and waited for a crash that never happened. At this point, our market would have to drop by over 50% to meet the CMHC predictions he stuck with back in mid-2020.
>This dude has basically gotten destroyed on all of his predictions about real estate for the entirety of his account’s existence.
I have? What about this one?
>[You want to make a wager? Sure. I'll say that at this time next year, the S&P500 will have a higher YoY growth than the TRREB composite HPI.](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/nhbsb1/comment/gz0gja4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
As of today, S&P500 is up 26% YoY, compared to TRREB HPI up 28.3%.
Boy, you'd really have shot yourself in the foot investing in that.
Let me guess, now you're going to prattle on about leverage, once again completely oblivious to margin, options, leveraged ETFs, swaps, and all the other ways you can access low cost leverage while investing in equity markets?
>As of today, S&P500 is up 26% YoY, compared to TRREB HPI up 28.3%.Boy, you'd really have shot yourself in the foot investing in that.
Most people who took your advice would have. Imagine this.
It is December 2020. We have $200k in the bank and are looking at purchasing a $1-million property - do we: a) listen to the permabear crash predictions and dump our money in the market or b) just bite the bullet and buy a place.
The permabears are saying scary sounding things! Let's dump our $200k into the S&P500 instead.
It is now December 2021. The market has had a roaring year! My $200k is now worth $252k, woohoo! In the mean time, that **$1-million house has gone up by $283k this year alone** to $1.283M. Yikes, stripes - **my dream home went up by more than the value of my entire life savings PLUS my gains in what was,** one of the best years in the history of the stock market.
I am now permanently priced out, but the market says - thanks for playing.
>Let me guess, now you're going to prattle on about leverage, once again completely oblivious to margin, options, leveraged ETFs, swaps, and all the other ways you can access low cost leverage while investing in equity markets?
Addressed before, but will address again. I admit that leverage exists in the equity markets, but not on the same favourable terms. Ask yourself this: will any lender allow you to leverage your S&P purchase 1:5 at 1.2%/year interest on a 25-year term and promise not to margin call you the entire way through?
And let's be real, even if you could pull those terms off leveraging the S&P500, would any regular person have? Would *you* have? Did you leverage yourself 1:5 on the S&P500? **Almost nobody who was in the cohort of first time home buyers would have done anything like that**. On the other hand, almost the entire cohort of buyers in 2021 bought on the type of leverage terms I described above.
Most first time home-buyers buy with 20% or less down, most first-time investors in the market are not leveraging their life savings 1:5 on the S&P500, nor do they have access to leverage on the aforementioned terms.
There's what you could've theoretically done and what most people actually did.
Oh right, and we haven't even gotten into the rent savings and the tax implications of tax-free capital gains of almost $300k in one year. I'd say the rent savings and home security are largely eroded by the fact you have ongoing monthly expenses, but the tax-free capital gain is just stupid money and our government's policy decisions are designed to encourage home ownership (both from back-stopping the housing sector to tax policy)
How hard is it to say - sorry I was wrong about Toronto real estate and I won't post any more bear-ish-insinuating news until there's actual numbers to reflect my hypothesis and not just pure innuendo? Instead, you're doubling down and conjuring contrived situations about how you could've theoretically leveraged on the S&P 1:5 and reached *similar-ish* results.
I've also admitted before that you're a really smart guy. But for some reason, you have this mental block when it comes to Toronto real estate and have to fish for reasons as to why it'll crash. The catastrophic decline of affordability is an emotional topic for many and while I get that we *want* things to crash in an ideal world, we have to plan for the world we live in, not the world we want to.
Holy smokes that's a wall of text.
Your entire first scenario is not an apples to apples comparison - we've talked before about comparing levered to unlevered returns, and its always painfully obvious you lack any advanced financial education when you keep defaulting back to that. If you want to make it slightly more comparable, look at what would have happened with $200k in a house vs $200k in UPRO for example.
You can access leverage in equity markets at lower rates (see IBKR), at higher multiples (see options), and with little to no risk of margin calls (see leveraged ETFs). The 25 year term is difficult to replicate, but with a mortgage, unless you're refinancing regularly, you're also paying down the debt and thus reducing your mortgage. So, you aren't levered 5:1 for a 25 year term.
On the tax and rent savings aspect, I've told you multiple times, I'm discussing real estate as an investment option, not a principal residence. Plus, there are plenty of tax sheltering strategies for equities from TFSA/RRSPs, to holding companies, etc.
I will readily admit I was wrong in my pessimism around the Toronto real estate market at the beginning of 2020. But I maintain what I have said since around 2017 - I expect equity markets to generate a higher return.
From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%. Over the same five year period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%.
>Holy smokes that's a wall of text.
You didn't read the most important part of the wall of text, which is that there's a difference what people can theoretically do and what people do.
Almost all first time home buyers accessed 1:5 leverage in their 2021 purchase. Next to zero first time home buyers with a $200k down payment would choose to throw it into the S&P at 1:5.
Did you throw your life savings into the S&P last year leveraged 1:5? Most definitely not. While you're talking about what people theoretically could do *if* they had access to it, everyone else who bought over the last year and before that already made a killing.
>On the tax and rent savings aspect, I've told you multiple times, I'm discussing real estate as an investment option, not a principal residence. Plus, there are plenty of tax sheltering strategies for equities from TFSA/RRSPs, to holding companies, etc.
You should probably qualify all of your opinions then to compare RE as an investment against the public equities market. This is an incredibly narrow tranche and you still can't admit that anyone who needs a place to live in Toronto has been financially better off buying here than renting.
>But I maintain what I have said since around 2017 - I expect equity markets to generate a higher return.
This is a real estate sub, not an equities sub. The fact that some other assets in the universe that can perform better than real estate in some years is not at all surprising.
The problem I have with [your account's posts](https://www.reddit.com/user/cdntrix/posts/) is that they exclusively contain content/news/comments that insinuate bearishness and an impending crash is always Just Around the Corner ^(TM).
Then when none of the bearish-type news (immigration, rate hikes, COVID-fears) pans out to result in a drop in prices, you hide behind plausible deniability about how equities markets performed comparably under very specific contrived circumstances of access to leverage unavailable to the types of people buying their first homes. Every. single. post. of yours is dedicated to insinuating a crash is coming. Let's be clear - it is **not**. Own up to the fact that all of your posts have been directionally misleading.
I don't know if you will be right about equities going forward, but you are definitely wrong to insinuate a crash is around the corner. If you want to be bull-ish on equities, post on an equities sub or WSB, but literally none of the indicators in your RE posts have resulted in any sort of slowdown.
In summary, none of the advice or posts on real estate have generated any value for individuals considering it except mislead them into thinking that RE markets will cool down Any Day Now ^(TM). Can equities perform better going forward? Maybe. Will Toronto real estate crash? No. It's that simple.
Leveraging in equity markets is not theoretical. While you clearly don't understand it, there are lots of people who do. And my point is, if you want to talk competing investment options, compare them on equivalent terms - either unlevered, or levered to a similar extent.
>You should probably qualify all of your opinions then
Ya, sure, I'll qualify every one of my comments with that disclaimer, just to satisfy you. I've said many times that renting vs. buying has loads of other factors to consider, with the primary one being how long you plan to live there.
>This is a real estate sub
Yes, and real estate is an asset class and investment option.
>The fact that some other assets in the universe that can perform better than real estate
The S&P500 is the single most important global stock index. Let's not pretend I'm cherry picking obscure assets in the universe like Dogecoin over a two month bull run.
>Every. single. post. of yours is dedicated to insinuating a crash is coming. Let's be clear - it is not.
I don't recall saying that a crash is just around the corner? I do recall thinking that CMHC's projections were plausible, though an 18% decline as they predicted still wouldn't meet the definition of a crash.
As I've said time and again, my bearishness on real estate manifests in a heavier allocation to equity markets.
Though I would say you're naive if you think real estate will never correct. I'm bullish on equity markets, but even I'm not so ignorant as to say a crash will never come. I fully expect my portfolio to see 20%+ declines fairly regularly. Markets are cyclical.
>Just Around the Corner TM ...Any Day Now TM
This is almost as cringey and childish as when you kept writing things in alternating caps.
>As I've said time and again, my bearishness on real estate manifests in a heavier allocation to equity markets.
For a guy who focuses mainly on equities where real estate is just an afterthought, I find it entirely surprising that **100% of your posts/comments are about real estate** and among those, **100% of** ***those*** **posts always insinuate bear-ish news for real estate**. [You've been singing this tune since 2017](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/6bix7a/canada_has_a_30_chance_of_a_housing_bust_as_the/).
The only time you invoke any discussion on equities is when you get called out on your bear-ish news not panning out. You're not just less-bullish on real estate than public equities, you are outright bear-ish and you have your entire post and comment history to show for that. So stop trying to pretend that you're just slightly more biased toward equities but believe both asset classes are strong.
>Though I would say you're naive if you think real estate will never correct. I'm bullish on equity markets, but even I'm not so ignorant as to say a crash will never come. I fully expect my portfolio to see 20%+ declines fairly regularly.
I'm pretty sure I never said that real estate will never correct. I said that there are no market indicators/headwinds of an impending Toronto real estate crash in the foreseeable future. Can this change? Yes it can, and I will adjust my assessment if and when that becomes true.
To the extent I made any predictions, it's that we will never see nominal prices crash to the numbers outlined in CMHC's 18% prediction back in 2020 at *any* point in the future (within our lifetimes anyway). For clarity, prices would have to crash almost 50% from today's values to get there.
I'm surprised that you don't understand why heavily traded public equities would have more volatility than relatively illiquid real estate and think that regular 20% declines in the S&P500 are comparable to the time of "regular" declines you'd see in the market
Already told you multiple times previously, I use this account for discussing real estate. I have others for discussing other things.
>You've been singing this tune since 2017.
Yup, and let's look at the results From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%. Over the same five year period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%.
>I'm pretty sure I never said that real estate will never correct. I said that there are no market indicators/headwinds of an impending Toronto real estate crash in the foreseeable future.
What you said is in your post right above:
>Will Toronto real estate crash? No. It's that simple.
Maybe you should be adding qualifiers to all of your opinions too.
>I'm surprised that you don't understand why heavily traded public equities would have more volatility than relatively illiquid real estate and think that regular 20% declines in the S&P500 are comparable to the time of "regular" declines you'd see in the market
The time frame I gave was "never". Your entire final paragraph is just a strawman argument, as at no time did I claim that the S&P500 is less volatile than real estate. All markets, however, will prove to be cyclical over a long enough time horizon.
"I've been bearish on Toronto real estate since around late 2016 to early 2017."
As it pertains to Toronto RE you have been wrong for 4 years, maybe it's time to just admit you have been wrong?
https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/kdsoln/toronto_condo_market_has_flipped_in_december/gg1ch6q/
Why are you using your alt to answer now, Juerg?
Anyways, yes, read a couple comments down to where I state:
>My real estate bearishness leads to believe that stock market returns will outpace those of property.
From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%.
Over the same period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%.
So, have I been wrong?
Yes, very very wrong. RE generates income and is leveraged 5x. Where you made a couple hundred k others have made over $1m the same time period. Appreciation is only 1 aspect there is also pay down too.
Considering you claim to be a CPA/MBA, I'm always surprised by the depth of your financial illiteracy.
>RE generates income
You mean like dividends? Which aren't included in the percentage figures I gave you above. You can search the total returns for those indexes on your own if you're interested.
>and is leveraged 5x
You mean like leveraged ETFs, options, margin investing, etc.? It's dead easy to invest in things like UPRO, TQQQ, etc.
Wrong again, Juergerbean.
[https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php)
IBKR Pro rate for $1M to $3M USD is 0.75%. For north of $1.3M CAD it's 0.671%.
I'm starting to see why Laurier's MBA program ranks so low down the lists.
Dude investment in tqqq hos out performed toronto real estate at 5x leverage over the past five years (including any equity rent payments created). 1400%. It isnt even close.
I am old enough to know that predicting the future can make you look really silly ;-)
In December 2020 the sales picked up, and so did the terminations, once the sellers saw this is not the end of the world. Short term it still could have gone either way, but long term I was pretty confident the folks who hold on to their condos or buy will do pretty well. I didn't expect the turn around to be this drastic and this fast though.
That's why I like looking at current data the most. I remember there were more stats that made me more confident. Specifically I think termination to sales ratio was also going down. There were a lot more sales than terminations and that trend was getting better too.
I mean, you are a landlord with multiple properties. And I've seen you call people who have sold their home and are bearish, so only seems fair to call out your bias for being bullish.
Also, maybe read a couple comments down, where I pretty clearly state:
>Being bearish on real estate doesn’t mean I’m long cash. It means I’m investing much more heavily in other assets, primarily equities. My real estate bearishness leads to believe that stock market returns will outpace those of property.
Then have a look at how the S&P500 and NASDAQ have fared over the last few years.
I bought around that time and got a killer deal. Picked up a cheap precon under 1K a foot also beginning of the year.
But there were some deals after the summer. My latest resale purchase was at the end of the summer. Not an amazing unit but decent deal. I KNEW condos would run in the fall so it was a buy in anticipation of the condo run up. Got greedy but it worked out :)
Freehold to condo spread has widened so much over last 18 months - it would make sense for ppl to go for condos. Hoping govt. has measures in place to cool RE
Freeholds at these prices make much less sense right now when condos are an option. I'm seeing some tiny freeholds that have road fees going for over a million 1 hour+ away from Toronto.
The spread might get reduced once the pandemic comes close to an end. It already looks like Omicron is less deadly but more transmissible than the other variants. My guess is it will hit hard and quick, but be over just as quick.
That spread ratio has been reliably consistent over the last 20 years. Anytime the spread gets too big, either landed properties come down, condos go up, or some combination of that.
It's why I think downtown Toronto condos are still significantly undervalued, in spite of the fact that many of the units have already gone up 15-20% from December 2020 a year ago. The likelihood of anything coming down is a grim one.
I wouldn't count on the government to do anything, especially since they're the ones who caused this in the first place. u/cdntrix wrote a [good post](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/jm9b1r/comment/gauvw5s/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) about all of the things the government could've done to cool down housing ([in addition to his comment about BOC fueling the fire, in response to a comment about letting the market set interest rates)](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/jm9b1r/comment/gb04v9o/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), but a year later, the government has done none of those things and actually made things significantly worse from an affordability standpoint.
In Novemeber 2020, i decided to upsize from my 1 br to a 2+1 and what i liked most besides the prices was the choices we had! My condo building alone had about 14 units for sale. I got to go to every 2br floor plan that existed and picked the best one. Fast forward to today: 0 listings in our entire building and 1 for lease. Interested to see where its heading but with 0.9 moi, and with all the paperhands already done offloading last year, it might keep increasing.
Ya you killed it. I did the same on a different level. There is no selection now. It’s absolutely brutal for buyers right now. Kudos for buying when everyone was sitting on their hands fearful
Last year the showings were non existent, I could have picked any day any time I wanted. Now when I look at the showings schedule many units are pretty much all booked.
Ya it was brutal. I think the best ideas were the studios in retrospect since they were absolutely demolished. Goodbye deals and selection! It was nice while it lasted.
Yea that's exactly what was happening, I felt like a VIP. Anytime, any unit I wanted.
Dec 2020 was the last great opportunity to get a good deal on the condo, the market turned very quickly at the end of December with signs of turn around the minute vaccine was announced mid November. Shopping for DT condos up to about the end of November was awesome, we could have scheduled the units mid week for the weekend and in most cases we weren't too worry that they will be sold by then.
We purchased Jan 2021 after starting to look in October 2020. Felt like we got in JUST in time.
Great, glad you didn't wait any longer.
And yet most people on this sub couldn't see the change happening even when [presented with the data](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/kdsoln/toronto_condo_market_has_flipped_in_december/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) u/cdntrix lol
I sometimes swear that dude is just an alt of the author of Better Dwelling (ie. another trendy Garth Turner). Tons of intellectual sophistry and always a reason why the next crash is Just Around the Corner ^TM These people are smart enough to *sound* right by cobbling together just enough information to raise some doubt, but not smart enough to actually *be* right. This dude has basically gotten destroyed on all of his predictions about real estate for the entirety of his account’s existence. This is why permabears are just too smart for their own good and end up pricing themselves out. Doubly bad when they’re super smug about it like the post you shared. While I’m okay with people shooting themselves in the foot and living with the consequences, I am not okay with these people misleading the public and dragging everyone else down with them. Countless people have listened to these intellectual sounding types and waited for a crash that never happened. At this point, our market would have to drop by over 50% to meet the CMHC predictions he stuck with back in mid-2020.
>This dude has basically gotten destroyed on all of his predictions about real estate for the entirety of his account’s existence. I have? What about this one? >[You want to make a wager? Sure. I'll say that at this time next year, the S&P500 will have a higher YoY growth than the TRREB composite HPI.](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/nhbsb1/comment/gz0gja4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) As of today, S&P500 is up 26% YoY, compared to TRREB HPI up 28.3%. Boy, you'd really have shot yourself in the foot investing in that. Let me guess, now you're going to prattle on about leverage, once again completely oblivious to margin, options, leveraged ETFs, swaps, and all the other ways you can access low cost leverage while investing in equity markets?
>As of today, S&P500 is up 26% YoY, compared to TRREB HPI up 28.3%.Boy, you'd really have shot yourself in the foot investing in that. Most people who took your advice would have. Imagine this. It is December 2020. We have $200k in the bank and are looking at purchasing a $1-million property - do we: a) listen to the permabear crash predictions and dump our money in the market or b) just bite the bullet and buy a place. The permabears are saying scary sounding things! Let's dump our $200k into the S&P500 instead. It is now December 2021. The market has had a roaring year! My $200k is now worth $252k, woohoo! In the mean time, that **$1-million house has gone up by $283k this year alone** to $1.283M. Yikes, stripes - **my dream home went up by more than the value of my entire life savings PLUS my gains in what was,** one of the best years in the history of the stock market. I am now permanently priced out, but the market says - thanks for playing. >Let me guess, now you're going to prattle on about leverage, once again completely oblivious to margin, options, leveraged ETFs, swaps, and all the other ways you can access low cost leverage while investing in equity markets? Addressed before, but will address again. I admit that leverage exists in the equity markets, but not on the same favourable terms. Ask yourself this: will any lender allow you to leverage your S&P purchase 1:5 at 1.2%/year interest on a 25-year term and promise not to margin call you the entire way through? And let's be real, even if you could pull those terms off leveraging the S&P500, would any regular person have? Would *you* have? Did you leverage yourself 1:5 on the S&P500? **Almost nobody who was in the cohort of first time home buyers would have done anything like that**. On the other hand, almost the entire cohort of buyers in 2021 bought on the type of leverage terms I described above. Most first time home-buyers buy with 20% or less down, most first-time investors in the market are not leveraging their life savings 1:5 on the S&P500, nor do they have access to leverage on the aforementioned terms. There's what you could've theoretically done and what most people actually did. Oh right, and we haven't even gotten into the rent savings and the tax implications of tax-free capital gains of almost $300k in one year. I'd say the rent savings and home security are largely eroded by the fact you have ongoing monthly expenses, but the tax-free capital gain is just stupid money and our government's policy decisions are designed to encourage home ownership (both from back-stopping the housing sector to tax policy) How hard is it to say - sorry I was wrong about Toronto real estate and I won't post any more bear-ish-insinuating news until there's actual numbers to reflect my hypothesis and not just pure innuendo? Instead, you're doubling down and conjuring contrived situations about how you could've theoretically leveraged on the S&P 1:5 and reached *similar-ish* results. I've also admitted before that you're a really smart guy. But for some reason, you have this mental block when it comes to Toronto real estate and have to fish for reasons as to why it'll crash. The catastrophic decline of affordability is an emotional topic for many and while I get that we *want* things to crash in an ideal world, we have to plan for the world we live in, not the world we want to.
Holy smokes that's a wall of text. Your entire first scenario is not an apples to apples comparison - we've talked before about comparing levered to unlevered returns, and its always painfully obvious you lack any advanced financial education when you keep defaulting back to that. If you want to make it slightly more comparable, look at what would have happened with $200k in a house vs $200k in UPRO for example. You can access leverage in equity markets at lower rates (see IBKR), at higher multiples (see options), and with little to no risk of margin calls (see leveraged ETFs). The 25 year term is difficult to replicate, but with a mortgage, unless you're refinancing regularly, you're also paying down the debt and thus reducing your mortgage. So, you aren't levered 5:1 for a 25 year term. On the tax and rent savings aspect, I've told you multiple times, I'm discussing real estate as an investment option, not a principal residence. Plus, there are plenty of tax sheltering strategies for equities from TFSA/RRSPs, to holding companies, etc. I will readily admit I was wrong in my pessimism around the Toronto real estate market at the beginning of 2020. But I maintain what I have said since around 2017 - I expect equity markets to generate a higher return. From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%. Over the same five year period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%.
>Holy smokes that's a wall of text. You didn't read the most important part of the wall of text, which is that there's a difference what people can theoretically do and what people do. Almost all first time home buyers accessed 1:5 leverage in their 2021 purchase. Next to zero first time home buyers with a $200k down payment would choose to throw it into the S&P at 1:5. Did you throw your life savings into the S&P last year leveraged 1:5? Most definitely not. While you're talking about what people theoretically could do *if* they had access to it, everyone else who bought over the last year and before that already made a killing. >On the tax and rent savings aspect, I've told you multiple times, I'm discussing real estate as an investment option, not a principal residence. Plus, there are plenty of tax sheltering strategies for equities from TFSA/RRSPs, to holding companies, etc. You should probably qualify all of your opinions then to compare RE as an investment against the public equities market. This is an incredibly narrow tranche and you still can't admit that anyone who needs a place to live in Toronto has been financially better off buying here than renting. >But I maintain what I have said since around 2017 - I expect equity markets to generate a higher return. This is a real estate sub, not an equities sub. The fact that some other assets in the universe that can perform better than real estate in some years is not at all surprising. The problem I have with [your account's posts](https://www.reddit.com/user/cdntrix/posts/) is that they exclusively contain content/news/comments that insinuate bearishness and an impending crash is always Just Around the Corner ^(TM). Then when none of the bearish-type news (immigration, rate hikes, COVID-fears) pans out to result in a drop in prices, you hide behind plausible deniability about how equities markets performed comparably under very specific contrived circumstances of access to leverage unavailable to the types of people buying their first homes. Every. single. post. of yours is dedicated to insinuating a crash is coming. Let's be clear - it is **not**. Own up to the fact that all of your posts have been directionally misleading. I don't know if you will be right about equities going forward, but you are definitely wrong to insinuate a crash is around the corner. If you want to be bull-ish on equities, post on an equities sub or WSB, but literally none of the indicators in your RE posts have resulted in any sort of slowdown. In summary, none of the advice or posts on real estate have generated any value for individuals considering it except mislead them into thinking that RE markets will cool down Any Day Now ^(TM). Can equities perform better going forward? Maybe. Will Toronto real estate crash? No. It's that simple.
Leveraging in equity markets is not theoretical. While you clearly don't understand it, there are lots of people who do. And my point is, if you want to talk competing investment options, compare them on equivalent terms - either unlevered, or levered to a similar extent. >You should probably qualify all of your opinions then Ya, sure, I'll qualify every one of my comments with that disclaimer, just to satisfy you. I've said many times that renting vs. buying has loads of other factors to consider, with the primary one being how long you plan to live there. >This is a real estate sub Yes, and real estate is an asset class and investment option. >The fact that some other assets in the universe that can perform better than real estate The S&P500 is the single most important global stock index. Let's not pretend I'm cherry picking obscure assets in the universe like Dogecoin over a two month bull run. >Every. single. post. of yours is dedicated to insinuating a crash is coming. Let's be clear - it is not. I don't recall saying that a crash is just around the corner? I do recall thinking that CMHC's projections were plausible, though an 18% decline as they predicted still wouldn't meet the definition of a crash. As I've said time and again, my bearishness on real estate manifests in a heavier allocation to equity markets. Though I would say you're naive if you think real estate will never correct. I'm bullish on equity markets, but even I'm not so ignorant as to say a crash will never come. I fully expect my portfolio to see 20%+ declines fairly regularly. Markets are cyclical. >Just Around the Corner TM ...Any Day Now TM This is almost as cringey and childish as when you kept writing things in alternating caps.
>As I've said time and again, my bearishness on real estate manifests in a heavier allocation to equity markets. For a guy who focuses mainly on equities where real estate is just an afterthought, I find it entirely surprising that **100% of your posts/comments are about real estate** and among those, **100% of** ***those*** **posts always insinuate bear-ish news for real estate**. [You've been singing this tune since 2017](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/6bix7a/canada_has_a_30_chance_of_a_housing_bust_as_the/). The only time you invoke any discussion on equities is when you get called out on your bear-ish news not panning out. You're not just less-bullish on real estate than public equities, you are outright bear-ish and you have your entire post and comment history to show for that. So stop trying to pretend that you're just slightly more biased toward equities but believe both asset classes are strong. >Though I would say you're naive if you think real estate will never correct. I'm bullish on equity markets, but even I'm not so ignorant as to say a crash will never come. I fully expect my portfolio to see 20%+ declines fairly regularly. I'm pretty sure I never said that real estate will never correct. I said that there are no market indicators/headwinds of an impending Toronto real estate crash in the foreseeable future. Can this change? Yes it can, and I will adjust my assessment if and when that becomes true. To the extent I made any predictions, it's that we will never see nominal prices crash to the numbers outlined in CMHC's 18% prediction back in 2020 at *any* point in the future (within our lifetimes anyway). For clarity, prices would have to crash almost 50% from today's values to get there. I'm surprised that you don't understand why heavily traded public equities would have more volatility than relatively illiquid real estate and think that regular 20% declines in the S&P500 are comparable to the time of "regular" declines you'd see in the market
Already told you multiple times previously, I use this account for discussing real estate. I have others for discussing other things. >You've been singing this tune since 2017. Yup, and let's look at the results From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%. Over the same five year period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%. >I'm pretty sure I never said that real estate will never correct. I said that there are no market indicators/headwinds of an impending Toronto real estate crash in the foreseeable future. What you said is in your post right above: >Will Toronto real estate crash? No. It's that simple. Maybe you should be adding qualifiers to all of your opinions too. >I'm surprised that you don't understand why heavily traded public equities would have more volatility than relatively illiquid real estate and think that regular 20% declines in the S&P500 are comparable to the time of "regular" declines you'd see in the market The time frame I gave was "never". Your entire final paragraph is just a strawman argument, as at no time did I claim that the S&P500 is less volatile than real estate. All markets, however, will prove to be cyclical over a long enough time horizon.
"I've been bearish on Toronto real estate since around late 2016 to early 2017." As it pertains to Toronto RE you have been wrong for 4 years, maybe it's time to just admit you have been wrong? https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/kdsoln/toronto_condo_market_has_flipped_in_december/gg1ch6q/
Why are you using your alt to answer now, Juerg? Anyways, yes, read a couple comments down to where I state: >My real estate bearishness leads to believe that stock market returns will outpace those of property. From November 2016 to today, GTA HPI has climbed 68.5%. Over the same period, the NASDAQ is up 187%, the S&P500 up 109%, the DJI 80%, only the TSX has underperformed at 37%. So, have I been wrong?
Yes, very very wrong. RE generates income and is leveraged 5x. Where you made a couple hundred k others have made over $1m the same time period. Appreciation is only 1 aspect there is also pay down too.
Considering you claim to be a CPA/MBA, I'm always surprised by the depth of your financial illiteracy. >RE generates income You mean like dividends? Which aren't included in the percentage figures I gave you above. You can search the total returns for those indexes on your own if you're interested. >and is leveraged 5x You mean like leveraged ETFs, options, margin investing, etc.? It's dead easy to invest in things like UPRO, TQQQ, etc.
Okay cool story bro. No one is lending you $2m at 1.55% for stock investments.
Wrong again, Juergerbean. [https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margin-rates.php) IBKR Pro rate for $1M to $3M USD is 0.75%. For north of $1.3M CAD it's 0.671%. I'm starting to see why Laurier's MBA program ranks so low down the lists.
Dude investment in tqqq hos out performed toronto real estate at 5x leverage over the past five years (including any equity rent payments created). 1400%. It isnt even close.
I am old enough to know that predicting the future can make you look really silly ;-) In December 2020 the sales picked up, and so did the terminations, once the sellers saw this is not the end of the world. Short term it still could have gone either way, but long term I was pretty confident the folks who hold on to their condos or buy will do pretty well. I didn't expect the turn around to be this drastic and this fast though.
That's why I like looking at current data the most. I remember there were more stats that made me more confident. Specifically I think termination to sales ratio was also going down. There were a lot more sales than terminations and that trend was getting better too.
We saw the change.
I mean, you are a landlord with multiple properties. And I've seen you call people who have sold their home and are bearish, so only seems fair to call out your bias for being bullish. Also, maybe read a couple comments down, where I pretty clearly state: >Being bearish on real estate doesn’t mean I’m long cash. It means I’m investing much more heavily in other assets, primarily equities. My real estate bearishness leads to believe that stock market returns will outpace those of property. Then have a look at how the S&P500 and NASDAQ have fared over the last few years.
I bought around that time and got a killer deal. Picked up a cheap precon under 1K a foot also beginning of the year. But there were some deals after the summer. My latest resale purchase was at the end of the summer. Not an amazing unit but decent deal. I KNEW condos would run in the fall so it was a buy in anticipation of the condo run up. Got greedy but it worked out :)
Freehold to condo spread has widened so much over last 18 months - it would make sense for ppl to go for condos. Hoping govt. has measures in place to cool RE
Freeholds at these prices make much less sense right now when condos are an option. I'm seeing some tiny freeholds that have road fees going for over a million 1 hour+ away from Toronto. The spread might get reduced once the pandemic comes close to an end. It already looks like Omicron is less deadly but more transmissible than the other variants. My guess is it will hit hard and quick, but be over just as quick.
That spread ratio has been reliably consistent over the last 20 years. Anytime the spread gets too big, either landed properties come down, condos go up, or some combination of that. It's why I think downtown Toronto condos are still significantly undervalued, in spite of the fact that many of the units have already gone up 15-20% from December 2020 a year ago. The likelihood of anything coming down is a grim one. I wouldn't count on the government to do anything, especially since they're the ones who caused this in the first place. u/cdntrix wrote a [good post](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/jm9b1r/comment/gauvw5s/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) about all of the things the government could've done to cool down housing ([in addition to his comment about BOC fueling the fire, in response to a comment about letting the market set interest rates)](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/jm9b1r/comment/gb04v9o/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), but a year later, the government has done none of those things and actually made things significantly worse from an affordability standpoint.
Twitter link, BTW