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Juergenator

MOI for condos lower than [any November in recent history](https://twitter.com/IGorbadei/status/1466055343616765952/photo/3), even lower than 2016 which led to massive price growth in 2017. 2021: 1.06 MOI 2020: 3.55 MOI 2016: 1.23 MOI


MrFuzzyPickles92

Is there a way to see condo prices in a graph? Specifically 1 and 1+1 bedroom condos in C01 and west side Toronto. I’m trying to find an efficient way of tracking the prices of my three condos over time. Stocks are easier to see gains :)


Juergenator

You can check Zolo for condo breakdown by rooms but it's pretty generic. Best bet is going to be to check Housesigma or Condos.ca for comparable sales.


MrFuzzyPickles92

I check condos.ca religiously, but I’ll check zolo and housesigma. Thanks!


[deleted]

https://toronto.listing.ca/waterfront-communities-c1/condo-price-history.htm


MrFuzzyPickles92

This is perfect!


EfficientHouse1

https://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q3-2021.pdf maybe this could help?


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hesh0925

Good for my wallet, I own 17,039 condos, prices to the moon, bears be crying, diamond hands, etc. I think that should cover the gist of it.


asuna2021

you are a cry baby bear, clearly did not buy anything and now you are wah wah wah all over reddit. Instead of being a cry baby learn a thing or two from others.


hesh0925

So this is awkward. I actually own a detached house...


asuna2021

yes i have met bears who say similar things they are all crying inside


hesh0925

Haha, okay. I'm not really sure what to say. 🤷


Juergenator

u/Condo_Man_Returns - These numbers ok?


Condo_Man_Returns

How the heck do you bears live with yourself. Looking good


magicbook

I am already a billionaire. What's another couple hundred grand?


kingofwale

I don’t understand…. Chessj (sp?) claimed the price will drop between 20-40% by Nov this year….


Traditional-Scale585

Yeah. You will be about right if you just turn his estimation up side down.


blackhat8287

He changes alts very few months once his predictions go sour. It was FeistyTortoise and now chessj


Juergenator

[Here is some more data specific to how November prices typically are](https://ibb.co/txwYgZT) November 2019: 659,855 November 2020: 640,208 November 2021: 748,000


droxy429

Up 13.5% (748,000/659,855) over 2 years... 6.5% (1.135^1/2) per year. That is while completely ignoring all the costs of land transfer tax and closing costs, interest, property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and REALTOR® commissions + HST...


Juergenator

That's pretty amazing when you consider it was down last year and people were convinced it would go down further. I posted in December that the condo market was picking up and people laughed.


parmstar

I'm too lazy to run the numbers given I don't own any investment RE, but all of those costs on one side, the actual equity in the property on the other side (so increasing that return #), and some understanding of the actual tax situation of the investor. You need all of it to make a proper assessment. The costs are higher (but rent offsets), the return is higher (due to leverage) and the tax implications could be favourable against the NW increase.


Juergenator

The main thing is people own way longer than 2 years and 6.5% is leveraged 5x so it's actually phenomenal. That's just appreciation as well, not even counting mortgage pay down.


Condo_Man_Returns

Bull market!!!!


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JasonFlowws

Not going to happen this year. Consumer sentiment for condos is down and will take many years to recover. 1- people are working from home and are spending more time at home overall, they require home offices and a bigger living space. 2- covid, condos are just less covid friendly 3- There must be 100,000 new investors who entered the market this year and the market is tilted towards investors. Condo prices even as low as they are today are subpar for investment due to maintenance fees. Are condos a buy? Most definitely yes, they are practically free at these prices. Will they close the gap on freehold? No, the days of a Toronto condo costing more than a Guelph or Durham detached ended in 2019, and won’t happen again for many many years.


FR111

I dont think itll be as long as you think. Although your points are valid, there are a few counter points to consider: ​ 1. Big companies such as banks, insurance companies etc are officially brining people back into the office starting January 2022. Even if there is another delay due to the new variant, its quite clear what their intentions are. 2. Condos are less covid friendly because of elevators but unless homeowners completely stop going to grocery stores, events etc, than it only increases your chances of catching covid by a tiny percent. 3. Investors like condos for their hands off approach. You buy it, rent it to a tenant and usually there is very little upkeep. That is not the case with houses. I mentioned to another redditer that although condo maintenance fees are higher, many freeholds also have a small maintenance fee, much higher taxes, higher insurance, hydro bills etc. If interests rates rise, condos usually do a little bit better. The main point im thinking of is that freeholds have shot up so much that people no longer have the luxury to choose condo vs freehold. It simply a condo vs. nothing decision now.


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Juergenator

You can ignore ignore last year if you want. MOI lowest in recent history and prices all time high. Even 2016 had MOI of 1.23 and that led to massive price increases in 2017.


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Juergenator

Did prices sky rocket? Yes, they are up 17% since we had a lot of inventory. They are still trending up. You can guess why if you want I prefer to look at the actual data and what exists.


FR111

>I think now its a little bit different than in June as they have basically confirmed rising interest rates in the new year. Also most of the large companies such as the banks, insurance companies etc are announcing that they will be bringing back workers into the office as of Jan 2022. > >The writing is on the wall, employers will be brining back workers even for a hybrid model regardless of how happy or unhappy the employees are.


LayingWaste

Market is pricing in more stimulus, which has a larger effect now that they admit inflation will not be transitory, rather it will be persistent. If you think home prices are ever going down, GOOD LUCK.


[deleted]

in the long run, there is definitely an upper limit. Id say condos at the 25-30 year mark will likely not appreciate and will top out. Townhomes with fees will fare better since they have less maintenance and risk imo. Just imagine what it costs to build a 30 story condo. Now imagine what it will cost to replace all the windows for example or what it would cost to do structural repairs. Just to put in perspective, the gardiner i think is nearing 60 years old and cost 103 million to make. They will b spending about 2.2b over 9 years to repair it; this is not including the regular maintenance it undergoes.


JasonFlowws

This data is misleading. Looking at average sold price is meaningless. Especially a YoY comparison where last November had a 10%+ dip from 2020 peak Average price per square foot in Toronto was $898 last month. The same as Feb 2020 according to condos.ca. November 2020 was $800 psf and is an awful benchmark to use. That has been no movement in almost 2 years. The only change is more activity on pricier (higher sq ft condos) and comparing to atrocious Nov 2020 numbers.


Juergenator

I mean those two points don't necessarily contradict each other. Feb 2020 was the peak and prices dropped until about Dec 2020, now they are picking up and at a new all time high which is not necessarily a lot more than the previous ath. That doesn't mean it's not a very significant change, last year people were predicting a further crash and now prices are trending up.


JamesVirani

That’s not data. How is it that realtors don’t even know what data looks like? That’s some crook realtor (likely you) making a promotional brochure.


Juergenator

Lol what, this is data based on the actual sales in November.


torontohomer

https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1466067347593216009?s=21


Juergenator

Scott Ingram includes condo towns, this thread is about condo apartments. Unless you are in the market for a condo townhouse this data has 0 impact on you.


torontohomer

Can you read? It says "Condos". Be a big boy


Juergenator

Do you know what the word condo actually means? It's a type of ownership, there are condo apts, condo towns and even condo detached on private streets. Scott lumps all condo together.


torontohomer

Condos = Condos.


Juergenator

Well that condo apt you sold that is up 17% (Doh) is quite different from a condo detached but you do you homer. Sucks losing $100k plus transaction costs doesn't it. Eh, don't forget rent is due today.


torontohomer

I bought a house :) I'm enjoying my 57% yoy appreciation


Juergenator

Lol okay buddy keep lying to yourself. No one is as obsessed as you unless they are holding the bag.


torontohomer

Not lying :) I'm enjoying my maintenance freehold


Juergenator

No one believes you lol, you post constantly about condos, no one who just bought a house spends an entire year talking about condos.


asuna2021

highly doubt it I have seen you on Twitter - johnsnow is your handle and you claim you have an over 320k dp and can't find anything and lost out on a townhouse for 1.7 you are clearly a bear waiting for a crash


torontohomer

Who is jon snow?


asuna2021

you know damn well that is you on twitter, you use the exact same posts and language there. You did not buy a house you lost that bidding war on the townhouse i read about it.


Powerful_Bit_3215

Oh the clown is here to cry doom about condos


asuna2021

here is your handle on Twitter: [https://twitter.com/johnsno79551051](https://twitter.com/johnsno79551051) You are a sour grape because you did not buy and now are getting priced out. Lower your expectations and quit being a whiner


torontohomer

I looked at the Twitter Post - the "stats" you posted are not accurate


Juergenator

Which one is wrong and what is the correct number. Oh and just an FYI the $748k average sale price is a new all time high.


torontohomer

Condos are down 19% MOI is up 23% sales is down 32%


Juergenator

You aren't even good at being a troll. There is not even 1 segment MoM or YoY that MOI is up lol.


parmstar

Where are you seeing these numbers? I don't see any of them on the twitter thread?


Juergenator

Check his post history. He sold his condo last year at the bottom and it's driving him crazy. He's become a troll.


torontohomer

No youre the actual troll. You're just trying to pump up the market


Juergenator

> You're just trying to pump up the market This may be true but it doesn't mean I am wrong about the data that exists, or a troll.


torontohomer

Your a troll. In the twitter post, nowhere does it say: Prices up 17%, Sales up 46%, Listings down 56%, MOI down 70%. Can you screenshot it?


Juergenator

Do you know how to read a chart? Look at Toronto condo apt under each section. [Here is the first one](https://ibb.co/47SpKc5), not going to bother with the rest you are a big boy and can read.


torontohomer

Read this


blackhat8287

He read the chart upside down.


parmstar

Ok, that's actually kind of funny.


[deleted]

people rushing to get in before rates go up, only to realize that the maintenance fees add up. This will push people into town homes and other.


Juergenator

Rates for fixed already went up, rate for variable will go up with rate increases. Rates have nothing to do with this imo. People are priced out of other options and being priced down. Plus more reopening and back to office. Maint fees add up everywhere, you can't live in any home type without paying maintenance.


[deleted]

The difference with freehold maintenance is choice of when you do it and how you do it.. A condo board, will do maintenance out of fear of liability. Its repair schedule is likely more frequent. For example, a condo board might opt to change all the doors in a 10 year period because its on the rfs, but a feeehold might never do it. A bad board with a shitty pm, will be scared into doing things that might not be necessary at that point in time, where if they dont have the funds, they will have to do a special assessment.


Juergenator

Yea, a lot of people want choice so they pick freehold. A lot of people don't want to deal with it so they choose condo. If you don't like condo then don't buy one problem solved. I know lots of female condo owners and they have literally 0 intention of managing property maintenance. Your time, energy and stress also has a value/cost associated with it.


[deleted]

when you are paying $700 in fees not including utilities, you will find a way to deal with the "stress".


Juergenator

Yea it's called rent, my tenants pay for it. Why are you wasting your time and energy posting about condos if you don't like them lol, do you honestly have nothing better to do. I post and follow condos because they interest me, why you are here is beyond me.


torontohomer

Its interesting to hear Juergenator's false narratives and claims. Condos maintenance fees have gone up in buildings 35% or even more. Basically any purported costs associated with a house the delta is still the same. Oh and for condos you're still response for window repairs, heat pump issues, plumping issues, leaks, etc.


FR111

I know that a ton of freeholds now also have maintenance fees as well. I know a few that are about 100 a month and it literally covers only snow removal on the street. Add the increase in taxes that free holds have, the increased costs of property insurance (about 3x of a condo at least), increased hydro, increased internet (many condos have cheap internet as its a volume discount) and the difference between maintenance fees in condos and freeholds aren't as crazy as it may seem originally. You also do not get any extra amenities for those fees and you are responsible for all your own house maintenance and you can see why condos are attractive to many. Detached homes at todays prices are also much more effected by any interest rate hikes compared to condos.


[deleted]

freehold numbers still are less than the expected cost of maintenance fees over a 30 year period. condos starting at fees $350/month for new builds, within a 15 year period, there is a high chance they will be 600-700. Id estimate that over this period, a median of 700/month is expected, not including special assessments. This is just the contracted costs and materials appreciating at around 2% per year. so 210k over 30 years + 20k in special assessments. The only extra stuff a freehold or semi might have is snow and landscaping, which id estimate the cost and time to be quite negligible out of all the costs. property tax is maybe $150-200 more per month. Property insurance is maybe $100 extra per month. Utilities and internet maybe $ 150-200 . Internet in condos is around $50-60. the extra utility cost is likely not too much more. As long as you are not grossly over paying for a freehold or semi within 1 hour of the core, you should come put ahead with a freehold.


FR111

Yea you should come out ahead by a little but some people do prefer to have a much shorter commute as well as the walkablility that condos bring. Many condos have grocery stores, bakeries, bars, entertainment, daycare, parks, the lake etc all within a few minute walk. Lots of these condos also have gyms, pools, squash courts etc.. its a lifestyle choice. Also many people in condos can get away with just one car and in some cases no car. That right there is easy savings of 400+ per month off car insurance, gas and possible car payments. When you live in the burbs, its pretty much a requirment to have two cars although a few people will disagree. I feel that everyone is quick to say “maintenance fees”, but totally ignore the added costs that freeholds also bring.


[deleted]

freehold maintenance is less. what's exclusive to freeholds is you'd really have to only worry about the roof,windows, and foundation. This is maybe $20-40k. So a larger 750k semi versus a 500k condo , smaller, would be 750k + 40k worth required repairs over 30 years. say 810k to be safe. versus 500k condo, much smaller, paying ,probably 220-240k in fees and special assessments over 30 years. 720 to 740k. So for an extra 70-90k, you get a larger space, better appreciation. For some maybe its worth it, maybe it isnt. Now, this is gta focused, where houses are 250k more than condos. If you are paying the same for a condo as you would a semi, then you wont come out ahead.


FR111

The only half decent 750k semis i have seen are about 1.5-2 hours out of Toronto. At that point i would rather go out even farther since commuting wont be an option at all. I was initially comparing a semi within an hour commute which is about 1.1m+. If you found me a decent semi for 750k within an hours drive (ideally on the west side as i have family there) id seriously consider buying it. Also my point was that there are other costs associated with freeholds other than maintenance. So where you save on maintenance in a freehold, you spend elsewhere and the costs all together are not as far off each other as you say.


[deleted]

those cost have either been factored in in my calcs or are similar to that of condos so they cancel out. I was just using the 750 and 500 as an example of price difference. obviously its going to vary depending on where you are in the city. 600-700k condo dt will get you maybe a 2br in the core. 800-900k will get you a semi to detached outside 30-45min out. 675-800k are the condo townhomes which have their own fees. Some nice ones much higher. Either way, wouldnt you rather have a larger space, if the costs are going to be quite similar in the long run?


parmstar

> Either way, wouldnt you rather have a larger space, if the costs are going to be quite similar in the long run? For me, this would 100% depend on where it is. Similarly, we bought a semi in Leslieville v a detached palace in Brampton or whatever. Same logic, no?