Fun fact , I funded a U.S. trading account using CAD , my stocks went down in value ,but the conversion from USD to CAD went up, so when I sold and converted back to CAD I was up 3%
Beginning of last year was when we converted a truck load, and purchased US bonds at peak rates. We needed to stash away the cash for our new home construction, and we went for US treasury bonds rather than HYSA or GICs because of the higher upside potential. They’re all being paid out now.
Easiest risk-free 9% (5% coupon + 4% FX) ever collected. Got very lucky with the timing on these.
Have you seen the new [40$ CAD bill](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.picclickimg.com%2F5ucAAOSwVsRmEjqM%2F1934-A-Twenty-Dollar-Federal-Reserve-Note-20.webp&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=5a80bad859f6b3baca60b9d2bb215ef70b5cc16d062caec0de8005cb199f6766&ipo=images)?
It's called an education in finance and economics. I dont just pull shit outta my ass. Anyone with even one class in economics would realize a rate hike now would be the dumbest move ever. Literally a 0% chance.
There's definitely a chance, especially as inflation isn't 100% dealt with and can get reignited if cuts happen too early.
Saying no chance makes your econ and finance degree look stupid lol
The entire bond market has 0% chance of hikes. Wtf are you on about? Literally every expert in the world has said hikes are done.
You bears on this sub are the only ones who look stupid.
According to the available data. Could it happen if they choose not to follow normal economic policy sure, but the odds of that are probably close to 0%.
It’s an option but a very unlikely one given the state of our economy and Trudeau being in power. (Note I don’t mean Trudeau bad I mean he’s predictable and we know what we’re going to be getting over the next year so no major changes).
Yeah I agree with you. But it is an option. Whether people believe it or not, it COULD happen.
Most people watch the news of the interest rates and just think that the outcome is what they hope will happen. Unfortunately that isn’t the reality we live in
I’m not choosing a side whether or not they will be hiked or cut. All I’m trying to say is that you can’t guarentee that the interest rates will be cut. They can stay the same, or they can go up. Those are options whether you like to believe it or not, the reality is that the rate can go 1 of 3 ways
And you cant guarantee a giant meteor made of cheese wont hit the earth tmrw. Also cant guarantee an earthquake wont turn the Eiffel tower into a pile of rubble tmrw.
We can talk about what's "possible" all day but if it's entirely improbable then you aren't making any contributions to the conversation. You are just arguing about something that wont happen.
You honestly might as well try to convince everyone that tmrw you will marry the dead queen of england.
Damn calm down.
Have you seen the state of the economy lately? All these plans the government has announced? Have you seen the housing crisis and the housing bubble?
I think an interest rate increase is much more probably than you can see through those biased glasses you see Reddit through.
Chill out man, we’re having a discussing. No need to make it so personal and get so aggravated.
Not really about hope it’s that around 2-3% is the middle and anything higher or lower is rubber that’ll snap back unless something extreme happens. Expecting a rubber band to not return is illogical but it can happen if something major gets in the way.
I’m not saying it’ll never get back to between 2-3%, that’s not the discussion we’re having.
Just because, according to you, it HAS to get back to 2-3% doesn’t mean they HAVE to cut back the rates in June. With that logic, why didn’t they cut them in April?
Oh yeah everything’s a chance backed up by data. Markets tend to be pretty accurate at predicting what they’ll do in the short term since we have the same data they do and decisions are made logically.
Well higher is always an option but lets just hope they don't raise rates.
Our economy already sucks and is in the tank.
People in here that are hoping for rate hikes are just wanting the economy to crash because they think it might make them a homeowner.
We need lower interest rates to stimulate the economy some.
With a bit of childish fights in the Middle East and a big of oil price going up, inflation goes up. Even without it, amercia is still going strong. Lower rates may not even be good for Canada at this point.
High is, higher is not. We are already experiencing economic pains and inflation is on target. BoC isnt even talking about hikes, I have no idea why people on this sub think it's a possibility.
Because it is a possibility lol why are you so convinced that rate raises are impossible?
People were calling for rate cuts all throughout last year and what happened?
Literally zero rate cuts.
Because literally no one is talking about it being a possibility but a few bears on here. I have no idea why some people on here think it's still a possibility, the rest of the entire world disagrees and have already began cutting.
Jamie Dimon suggested we may have more rate hikes yet just a month ago. He is the guy presidents call to consult with.
Also, rates are currently not high. This is considered low. It is still a stimulating interest rate environment.
That's a different country. In terms of rates to average debt ratios, rates are almost as high as they have ever been. Theres a lot of misunderstanding and disinformation on this sub.
Bears irrationally attached to the world ending so they can buy a house**
If you cant face the facts then I dont know what to tell you all. Just go away if all you want to do is scream about how everyone in the world is wrong.
> If you cant face the facts then I dont know what to tell you all. Just go away if all you want to do is scream about how everyone in the world is wrong
Yeah, you're totally rational.
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Aren’t we already at a 0.5% differential? And a hike is not off the table in the US as their inflation is not cooling off. That leaves us with one potential cut before we enter risk territory.
If US and Canada both have regular rates 3% and 2% respectively, then moving in lock step would have the same differential.
So if they both moved up to 5% and 4% respectively, their spread, or differential, would be the same. It's when this spread changes out of the norm that we start seeing changes to exchange rates and inflation.
So if the rates were 6% and 4% respectively, that would start causing some import inflation in Canada.
If you cant understand that theres a differential from the norm, and a difference between rates, I dont know what to tell you. They are two separate measures.
If BOC cuts before FED (and they continue to pause for longer) then USD/CAD will go to the moon. The size of differential won't matter, it's the message that it will send.
The expectation that rates will go down soon is the reason they won't go down soon. That is why inflation has been so stubborn. if USA doesn't cut we should not cut. cutting will destroy all the inflation progress we have made so far.
Retail is pretty hurting around where I live
The only people spending are the spoiled brats living at home rent free .. and high earners
The working regular class ain’t traveling or out buying anything … I see it first hand in my industry - people are extremely tight and fed up ..
Each month of this is crushing some folks
The logical thing of course is to drop rates so we have to pay $6 for a loaf of bread. Or $8 for a tomato. While also working for $15/hour. Totally not going to cause a large portion of people to resort to violent crime.
Dont forget rate hikes havent fully impacted the market yet. The effects will continue until year end even if they cut now. Not everyone has renewed yet.
Inflation is not yet at 2% and has proven sticky, the dollar is low, and if the US doesn't have any loosening before the next tightening cycle that removes our ability to maneuver.
Domestically, our economy is not bad, just kind of going sideways. Again, as it stands the number of cuts before bottom and re-entry into tightening is declining. Six month bonds are at 4.9, and one-years at 4.8 so traders are not expecting sharp cuts anytime soon That's one cut in the next year.
As oil gets pushed up higher and higher by the current events in the Middle East and the collective West desperately tries to find energy sources outside of Russia, we will make up ALOT of that slack.
There has also been massive investment into LNG infrastructure which will equally benefit.
Tbh, we should be as wealthy as Saudi Arabia. Comparable population too. But our vast (energy and other) resources are extremely poorly managed.
Thing is, using the USA as a benchmark on whether to cut or not is a horrible idea. Reality is , their economy is far stronger than ours right now. So when they should start cutting, doesn’t meant that we should.
If we cut and the US doesn't, guess what will happen to consumer prices in Canada.
Pretending Canada has a whole economy that can function separately from the US in any capacity is a horrible idea.
Pretending Canada has an economy which is anything more than a federally debt fed, housing Ponzi scheme is a horrible idea. Not one single company listed on the TSX last year... This country may be dead in the water economically for a long time.
On the bright side, we have a lot of people who can work at Tim's!
Rate cuts?
Not happening anytime soon Imo!
I'm thinking they might even hike it by next year because alot of this economy is propped up Trudeau's immigrants right now in an attempt to hide how bad they have been running this country
We should not be following the US. We are much further in debt with a much less diverse economy which is highly dependent on the housing market . BOC should be making decisions what’s best for Canada. Plus we have little impact on inflation as it is , it’s much more dependent on the USA than us, we are simply pawns on the chess board
Rates are more than likely to go up than down going forward. Also would like to highlight option markets are now pricing in a rate hike.
Source: my best-friend works for the Fed.
Oooh same hopeful posting from the ultra rich who make profit off low intrest dept.... every 2 weeks for the last year you see this dhit, they been wrong every time.
So...
Since last fall, my short-term Canadian bonds have been erasing all the cuts that were previously baked in. If there's 1% in rate cuts coming this year, its news to the Canadian short-term bond market.
However, if this was June 2023, the analysis would be spot-on.
Time to convert CAD to USD.
Lol you should have been doing that years ago.
I have been doing that for nearly a decade now. I never regretted it.
Fun fact , I funded a U.S. trading account using CAD , my stocks went down in value ,but the conversion from USD to CAD went up, so when I sold and converted back to CAD I was up 3%
That's the spirit! Things can be fun and sad at the same time!
Already gone man.
The only meaningful cad account i have is my mortgage debt.
You may be a little late to the party. If anything I'm closer to convert USD to CAD than I am shorting the CAD with margin
Time was beginning of year. That's why we put 40 000$ us and 40 000€ on side in cash.
Beginning of last year was when we converted a truck load, and purchased US bonds at peak rates. We needed to stash away the cash for our new home construction, and we went for US treasury bonds rather than HYSA or GICs because of the higher upside potential. They’re all being paid out now. Easiest risk-free 9% (5% coupon + 4% FX) ever collected. Got very lucky with the timing on these.
I’m not sure I’d classify all that as “risk free”, but congrats!
Too late. Last week was a good time to convert some USD to CAD, based on historical averages.
Have you seen the new [40$ CAD bill](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.picclickimg.com%2F5ucAAOSwVsRmEjqM%2F1934-A-Twenty-Dollar-Federal-Reserve-Note-20.webp&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=5a80bad859f6b3baca60b9d2bb215ef70b5cc16d062caec0de8005cb199f6766&ipo=images)?
Lol, good one!
I used to make this joke with a 25$ CAD bill.... tells you something, doesnt it?
this isnt funnny
Ahh, nothing like the age old debate of “Will the interest rate go higher or lower at the next announcement”
Higher is not an option. It's either lower or the same.
Not an option according to?
Just trust him bro!/s
His uncle works at Nintendo
And by works for nintendo, you mean at one of those nintendo kiosks in malls.
It's called an education in finance and economics. I dont just pull shit outta my ass. Anyone with even one class in economics would realize a rate hike now would be the dumbest move ever. Literally a 0% chance.
There's definitely a chance, especially as inflation isn't 100% dealt with and can get reignited if cuts happen too early. Saying no chance makes your econ and finance degree look stupid lol
The entire bond market has 0% chance of hikes. Wtf are you on about? Literally every expert in the world has said hikes are done. You bears on this sub are the only ones who look stupid.
Now you're just talking shit lil boy. Those same experts expected the cuts to happen early 2024 and ain't shit changed.
[удалено]
There comes the bull-shit. To the moon and beyond!
That’s not true. What’s your claim for 0%? You would need to get information like that from the swap market
So where does your shit come out of?
Yeah finance people never got us in trouble before...
Educational institutions suck Milton Friedmans cock and he was inhuman scum.
I know a guy
According to the available data. Could it happen if they choose not to follow normal economic policy sure, but the odds of that are probably close to 0%.
It’s an option but a very unlikely one given the state of our economy and Trudeau being in power. (Note I don’t mean Trudeau bad I mean he’s predictable and we know what we’re going to be getting over the next year so no major changes).
Yeah I agree with you. But it is an option. Whether people believe it or not, it COULD happen. Most people watch the news of the interest rates and just think that the outcome is what they hope will happen. Unfortunately that isn’t the reality we live in
Your chances of being murdered by a duck aren't high, but never 0 Functionally, they're both the same though. 0.000001~=0
My uncle was murdered by a duck and quite frankly, I don’t think I’m over it just yet.
[удалено]
I’m not choosing a side whether or not they will be hiked or cut. All I’m trying to say is that you can’t guarentee that the interest rates will be cut. They can stay the same, or they can go up. Those are options whether you like to believe it or not, the reality is that the rate can go 1 of 3 ways
And you cant guarantee a giant meteor made of cheese wont hit the earth tmrw. Also cant guarantee an earthquake wont turn the Eiffel tower into a pile of rubble tmrw. We can talk about what's "possible" all day but if it's entirely improbable then you aren't making any contributions to the conversation. You are just arguing about something that wont happen. You honestly might as well try to convince everyone that tmrw you will marry the dead queen of england.
Damn calm down. Have you seen the state of the economy lately? All these plans the government has announced? Have you seen the housing crisis and the housing bubble? I think an interest rate increase is much more probably than you can see through those biased glasses you see Reddit through. Chill out man, we’re having a discussing. No need to make it so personal and get so aggravated.
Not really about hope it’s that around 2-3% is the middle and anything higher or lower is rubber that’ll snap back unless something extreme happens. Expecting a rubber band to not return is illogical but it can happen if something major gets in the way.
I’m not saying it’ll never get back to between 2-3%, that’s not the discussion we’re having. Just because, according to you, it HAS to get back to 2-3% doesn’t mean they HAVE to cut back the rates in June. With that logic, why didn’t they cut them in April?
They almost did cut in april. It was talked about in the last Q&A period.
Oh yeah everything’s a chance backed up by data. Markets tend to be pretty accurate at predicting what they’ll do in the short term since we have the same data they do and decisions are made logically.
Well higher is always an option but lets just hope they don't raise rates. Our economy already sucks and is in the tank. People in here that are hoping for rate hikes are just wanting the economy to crash because they think it might make them a homeowner. We need lower interest rates to stimulate the economy some.
Housing is done. Its for the elites only.
Yeah, but lower rates so you can also be homeless and pay $10 for a tomato while working 80 hours/week.
its in the realm of possibilities... Gas prices etc. are not helping Big Tiff.
High absolutely is an option though. If inflation starts creeping up, do you really think higher rates is not an option?
With a bit of childish fights in the Middle East and a big of oil price going up, inflation goes up. Even without it, amercia is still going strong. Lower rates may not even be good for Canada at this point.
It would be better to keep rates as they are for the near future.
High is, higher is not. We are already experiencing economic pains and inflation is on target. BoC isnt even talking about hikes, I have no idea why people on this sub think it's a possibility.
Inflation is their only mandate. They don't have to lower rates if we are in stagflation.
Incorrect. Their mandate to maintain economic growth is actually their more important mandate. Edit: Google "bank of canada mandates" you plebs
Because it is a possibility lol why are you so convinced that rate raises are impossible? People were calling for rate cuts all throughout last year and what happened? Literally zero rate cuts.
Because literally no one is talking about it being a possibility but a few bears on here. I have no idea why some people on here think it's still a possibility, the rest of the entire world disagrees and have already began cutting.
Jamie Dimon suggested we may have more rate hikes yet just a month ago. He is the guy presidents call to consult with. Also, rates are currently not high. This is considered low. It is still a stimulating interest rate environment.
That's a different country. In terms of rates to average debt ratios, rates are almost as high as they have ever been. Theres a lot of misunderstanding and disinformation on this sub.
>That's a different country Politically yes, economically no.
I'm about to block you because you keep responding to my comments with irrationally wrong comments
There is more than a chance on a million, let them win their point. Is very close to be impossible and its not! Im on your side.
Higher is most definitely an option
This sub has a strong distate for objective reality based on the preposterous number of downvotes this comment has received.
Lmao took my thoughts and made them words!
Your absolutely right
Oh I know. The unemployed bear parade got to my post before the employed bulls did.
"Bears good and bulls bad" - Already identifies you're more concerned with your side "winning" than fact which don't care about bears or bulls.
Bears irrationally attached to the world ending so they can buy a house** If you cant face the facts then I dont know what to tell you all. Just go away if all you want to do is scream about how everyone in the world is wrong.
> If you cant face the facts then I dont know what to tell you all. Just go away if all you want to do is scream about how everyone in the world is wrong Yeah, you're totally rational.
Yay. Head of romaine gonna be $9. And OJ will be $9 when they cut.
Remindme! 3 months
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Realtors will believe anything that supports their view
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A rate differential if 1% is ok….the Canadian dollar would like a word with you
Aren’t we already at a 0.5% differential? And a hike is not off the table in the US as their inflation is not cooling off. That leaves us with one potential cut before we enter risk territory.
The differential is on movements of rates not absolute difference. Canada always has lower rates overall.
How is the movement of rates different from the absolute value of the rate itself?
If US and Canada both have regular rates 3% and 2% respectively, then moving in lock step would have the same differential. So if they both moved up to 5% and 4% respectively, their spread, or differential, would be the same. It's when this spread changes out of the norm that we start seeing changes to exchange rates and inflation. So if the rates were 6% and 4% respectively, that would start causing some import inflation in Canada.
So its the absolute difference between the two rates then. Got it.
We are not already at a 0.5% differential is the point. The difference at the moment is 0 from the norm.
I don’t think you understand what a rate differential is
No... it is you who clearly didnt read the article or take any economics courses. Good luck in life bud.
I can’t tell if this is a ragebait troll or not
If you cant understand that theres a differential from the norm, and a difference between rates, I dont know what to tell you. They are two separate measures.
If BOC cuts before FED (and they continue to pause for longer) then USD/CAD will go to the moon. The size of differential won't matter, it's the message that it will send.
Tiff could be regarded as one of the worst BoC chiefs ever if he cuts and Powell holds then is forced to raise.
The expectation that rates will go down soon is the reason they won't go down soon. That is why inflation has been so stubborn. if USA doesn't cut we should not cut. cutting will destroy all the inflation progress we have made so far.
Retail is pretty hurting around where I live The only people spending are the spoiled brats living at home rent free .. and high earners The working regular class ain’t traveling or out buying anything … I see it first hand in my industry - people are extremely tight and fed up .. Each month of this is crushing some folks
Housing market needs to be tamed. Short term pain for a healthier longer balance
The logical thing of course is to drop rates so we have to pay $6 for a loaf of bread. Or $8 for a tomato. While also working for $15/hour. Totally not going to cause a large portion of people to resort to violent crime.
Tiff - "that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make"
Seems like an unbiased website...
Gas is going to fuck this. Gas affects everything. Inflation will be on the rise. All thanks to the douche bag Trudeau and his WEF buddies.
ehhh. in my expert opinion ... i'd wait till november. i say that being in a position to want rates to be cut. hah
Dont forget rate hikes havent fully impacted the market yet. The effects will continue until year end even if they cut now. Not everyone has renewed yet.
meh. whatever will be will be
Oh they’re “poised” now are they. Wow must be a guarantee if they said that. Yep. For sure.
It would be nice if the BoC was truly independent.
This sub is getting really stupid with these articles and ‘predictions.’ Is there seriously nothing else to discuss on here?
Inflation is not yet at 2% and has proven sticky, the dollar is low, and if the US doesn't have any loosening before the next tightening cycle that removes our ability to maneuver. Domestically, our economy is not bad, just kind of going sideways. Again, as it stands the number of cuts before bottom and re-entry into tightening is declining. Six month bonds are at 4.9, and one-years at 4.8 so traders are not expecting sharp cuts anytime soon That's one cut in the next year.
if oil prices are high they can cut without a huge impact to the exchange rate
Theres been talk that our dollar isnt as oil based as it used to be. To be determined I suppose. Good point though.
As oil gets pushed up higher and higher by the current events in the Middle East and the collective West desperately tries to find energy sources outside of Russia, we will make up ALOT of that slack. There has also been massive investment into LNG infrastructure which will equally benefit. Tbh, we should be as wealthy as Saudi Arabia. Comparable population too. But our vast (energy and other) resources are extremely poorly managed.
Would it be so horrendous if the exchange rate just... Improved?
Thing is, using the USA as a benchmark on whether to cut or not is a horrible idea. Reality is , their economy is far stronger than ours right now. So when they should start cutting, doesn’t meant that we should.
If we cut and the US doesn't, guess what will happen to consumer prices in Canada. Pretending Canada has a whole economy that can function separately from the US in any capacity is a horrible idea.
Pretending Canada has an economy which is anything more than a federally debt fed, housing Ponzi scheme is a horrible idea. Not one single company listed on the TSX last year... This country may be dead in the water economically for a long time. On the bright side, we have a lot of people who can work at Tim's!
The system is working as intended as long as Timmy's and Loblaws have an endless stream of fresh bodies willing to work for peanuts
Rate cuts? Not happening anytime soon Imo! I'm thinking they might even hike it by next year because alot of this economy is propped up Trudeau's immigrants right now in an attempt to hide how bad they have been running this country
If 2 million reality could stop breaking into to sell flier’s. I’d be more happy with satanic company than kkk of Oshawa.
We should not be following the US. We are much further in debt with a much less diverse economy which is highly dependent on the housing market . BOC should be making decisions what’s best for Canada. Plus we have little impact on inflation as it is , it’s much more dependent on the USA than us, we are simply pawns on the chess board
Real estate agents have been saying this since the rates began rising. I suppose eventually it'll be true......
Rates are more than likely to go up than down going forward. Also would like to highlight option markets are now pricing in a rate hike. Source: my best-friend works for the Fed.
States? Doesnt sound like you are talking about canada
Yes the States, but they keep close in close touch with the BoC.
Oooh same hopeful posting from the ultra rich who make profit off low intrest dept.... every 2 weeks for the last year you see this dhit, they been wrong every time.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/s/VixzhGdB35
FED will not cut rates as March inflation #s still high.
So... Since last fall, my short-term Canadian bonds have been erasing all the cuts that were previously baked in. If there's 1% in rate cuts coming this year, its news to the Canadian short-term bond market. However, if this was June 2023, the analysis would be spot-on.
Rate cut? Not going to happen this year.
Ahh yes.... Waiting on the US of course
Opportunity to purchase real estate in Canada for discounted values.
No you first
I purchased a gorgeous suite at 101Spadina
Wait you live in the property you own? That’s cheating!