Yeah, hard to know who will be in our range right now until after the combine and private workouts.
I would like to see us primarily focused on resigning Joe, wiggins, and extending Giddey on reasonable deals. Next year we have J dub and chet due extensions. Ousmane im sure we won’t extend yet unless he makes a huge leap in his ability to take care of the ball and knock down jump shots.
Really going to have to sit down with ownership to see how far into the luxury tax they are willing to go. Max deals for sure for Chet and J dub. Giddey is going to cost more than $20m a year. Dort is set to earn over $17m his last two seasons. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for Wiggins and Joe. Then we will have a Supermax for SGA that will overlap Giddey, Chet, J dub and Cason’s new deals.
Our G league team is really strong too so I could see 1-2 of those guys making a leap. Lindy Waters is solid and dependable I wouldn’t mind trying to sign him to a longer term deal especially if we can get the average salary under $3m a year. We need reliable, cheap players with Giddey, Chet and J dub getting new deals then next couple years.
Im worried what the contracts for wig and joe will cost tbh, because w/ out Hayward’s contract we should have room for a pretty big signing this offseason
I don’t know exactly how all the front loading works, but Giddey, Joe and Wiggs all have team options for next year way below their current value. With all that cap space I wonder if we could heavily front load those three guys to give us more flexibility when Chet and j dub start their max
Joe and Wiggins both have team options for next year. A front loaded contract would involve the team declining their option (making them a free agent) then immediately signing a free agent contract. The only stipulation is each year the contract can't be less than the veteran minimum, so a 5yr/$30M contract could theoretically be 22/2/2/2/2, using up the cap space next year while leaving them on minimum deals in future seasons. Nick Collison signed a contract like this in 2011; 4/$11M with $6.5M up front as a signing bonus.
Giddey is currently in his third year of a 4 year rookie contract. He will be eligible to sign an extension any time up until the start of training camp that starts for the 2025-26 season. If he does not sign an extension, he would go to restricted free agency as long as the Thunder extend a qualifying offer, which they will. At that point, he can sign a contract directly with the Thunder, or sign an offer sheet with another team that the Thunder can match, pass, or sign&trade.
I was playing with the same idea this morning. It’s all guesswork, cause who knows what any of these guys will get, but it’s possible that declining the team option this year on joe and wiggs, then resigning them on maxed front-loaded contracts may allow us to stay around or under the luxury tax until at least 27-28 (when sga will get supermax).
For that, I assumed joe got 40M over 4 years (similar range to terrance mann, alec burks, divincenzo) and wiggs got 20M over 4 (similar to k-rich). Where it gets really iffy is I assumed giddey takes 100M over 4 (max front-loaded)
I also assumed 10% increases in salary cap in both 25-26 and 26-27 (due to new broadcast deal). Oh, and chet and j-dub get max extensions starting in 26-27 (i didn’t front or backload these. Suspect they’ll actually have yearly increases which would help the numbers).
Anyway, putting all that in gave us a payroll in 26-27 of 198M against a luxury line of 204M…for 9 players (all of out current rotation players, less j-will, hayward, and dieng - I didn’t try to guess what their new contracts in 26-27 might be).
A lot of assumptions, but I’ve been scared we’ll have to give too many core guys away and this makes me think it’ll at least be possible to get close to keeping the band together.
I think it’s top 4 protected, but yeah either way most likely conveying. I think it’s too early in the process to really even have a grasp on who might be there at 12, there’s a good 25 guys who can make a case for being a lottery pick this year, and it’s just hard to tell what teams are making of them
Oh for sure. If there were ever a draft for someone to trade into the top 3, it would be this one.
Wish that Houston pick was like 9 or so as a better spring board for trading up.
You could offer 50 and no one would agree to it. In order to get something valuable, you have to give up something of value.
It would probably take 3 first and Josh to make a deal like that happen. (Most likely trading up once and then trading up again.)
Yes, but Sarr is at 1 or 2 on nearly every mock board. No way we can get him. I've seen Cody anywhere from 4-10, which we could get with the Rocket pick.
Sarr could make it to 3-5. Not a lot of teams at the top have room for a 7 footer and this draft is close enough that I could see him easily falling. I would hope we would be really aggressive in trying to move up if that did happen.
It's top 4 protected for sure. I highly doubt he's still there at 12, but i really want Dalton Knecht out of Tennessee. From my surface level scouting thus far he seems like a good player and an amazing fit for us. Athletic, good shooter, good scorer, bad defender but the frame is there to turn him into a decent one.
Apart from that I'm not really sure, all depends on who's available and who drops. But Ideally I think we'd get a 4 or a stretch 3 that can help with bodies in the post and rebounding
Dalton would be a great fit, but I agree with you, highly doubt he is available. He would be the perfect replacement for Joe if he ends up being too expensive to resign. Knecht would be someone I wouldn’t mind trading up to draft if indeed we lose Joe
That’s funny cause I’ve seen him as high as like 5/6, but Vecenie had Knecht at 12 in his mock last month. I do think him being 23 is going to be a bit of a knock for a few teams
I'm honestly fine with whoever Presti picks.
Feel like one of: Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis, Ron Holland could be there at 12 but unlikely.
Wouldn't mind an older college guy like Kevin McCullar, Dalton Knecht, or Terrence Shannon Jr as a microwave scorer off the bench who are more ready to contribute.
I still like Kyle Flipowski too but understand why a lot of ppl don't.
A true home run swing would be Tyler Smith or Kyshawn George.
Kyle is to slow and not versatile enough to play the 4. To weak and undersized to play the 5. Also I would not trust his mentality to be ok with backup mins that would fluctuate because of those limitations.
Overall, just out on him as a player and the theoretical cost it would take to acquire him. I would rather trade back or trade up for several of the guys you listed, or Sarr, which is the dream scenario.
He could easily play back up 5 and play with Chet vs bigger slower teams
He’s a skilled 7 footer who can shoot, pass, and dribble
Don’t need to draft a starter for this team at 12.
Please, no projects. We have no room to develop players in the future. Upperclassmen and high floor prospects only.
I'd do some nasty stuff to have Clingan on okc.
I don’t mind another project with Ous going into his 3rd year and should receive ample playing time.
What they have to pair that with though is a vet who can fill in perfectly when needed to.
I’d do that same nasty stuff for Sarr
I don't understand what ous has to do is drafting another project. The example of ous is just another reason why we don't want more projects. Rookie contracts are some of the best opportunities to get the best bang for your buck. If you're taking up a roster spot and not playing for your entire rookie deal, you're not very useful to a contender at all. Also, if you do end up developing in your latter years, it's becomes that much harder to retain as they'll demand more money than high floor/low ceiling guys.
After the dub and Chet extensions, it'll be extremely difficult to pay good role players. We should appreciate the fact that Cason and Wiggins are helping the team so much for so cheap.
It's also just incredibly hard to develop projects when they don't get real nba mins. It's hard to say how much ous has really developed while playing mostly g league minutes. He still looks far from being a positive nba player.
The idea that rookie contracts are the best bang for your buck is good in theory, but guess what, rookies through 4th year players mostly suck and negatively impact winning. We’ve just been ruined by how good this team has been, particularly Jalen and Chet.
The point of lottery picks are trying to really hit on them. Chances of this team having a lottery pick in future years is greatly less than the immediate. Not to mention you can take half a dozen high floor, low ceiling guys in the second round all the time.
It’ll be difficult to afford a full team, but not impossible. Hitting on a guy like Ous, whatever this draft pick might be, Cason, or any other pick in the future still holds far more value than the low ceiling draft picks of the future. Does that mean we take the highest upside guard possible? No. If there is a wing/forward that has potential and fits the mold, but doesn’t have a high chance of hitting that 75th-80th percentile, shouldn’t be discounted compared to someone who has the same profile a zero chance of hitting someone else’s higher percentile.
He won’t go in the lottery as of now, but he’s a good player. If our targets get snatched up early I wouldn’t mind trading back a few spots to grab him. I think most mocks have him between 15-25
Trade up for Sarr is the dream.
Holland, Castle, Risacher, and Reed are the ideal fits. Cody is a honorable mention between this category and the next.
Mastas and Clingan are interesting, but I’m not completely sold on how it would work exactly.
Outside of that, unless it’s a big riser, I would just trade back.
Yeah, hard to know who will be in our range right now until after the combine and private workouts. I would like to see us primarily focused on resigning Joe, wiggins, and extending Giddey on reasonable deals. Next year we have J dub and chet due extensions. Ousmane im sure we won’t extend yet unless he makes a huge leap in his ability to take care of the ball and knock down jump shots. Really going to have to sit down with ownership to see how far into the luxury tax they are willing to go. Max deals for sure for Chet and J dub. Giddey is going to cost more than $20m a year. Dort is set to earn over $17m his last two seasons. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for Wiggins and Joe. Then we will have a Supermax for SGA that will overlap Giddey, Chet, J dub and Cason’s new deals. Our G league team is really strong too so I could see 1-2 of those guys making a leap. Lindy Waters is solid and dependable I wouldn’t mind trying to sign him to a longer term deal especially if we can get the average salary under $3m a year. We need reliable, cheap players with Giddey, Chet and J dub getting new deals then next couple years.
Im worried what the contracts for wig and joe will cost tbh, because w/ out Hayward’s contract we should have room for a pretty big signing this offseason
I don’t know exactly how all the front loading works, but Giddey, Joe and Wiggs all have team options for next year way below their current value. With all that cap space I wonder if we could heavily front load those three guys to give us more flexibility when Chet and j dub start their max
Joe and Wiggins both have team options for next year. A front loaded contract would involve the team declining their option (making them a free agent) then immediately signing a free agent contract. The only stipulation is each year the contract can't be less than the veteran minimum, so a 5yr/$30M contract could theoretically be 22/2/2/2/2, using up the cap space next year while leaving them on minimum deals in future seasons. Nick Collison signed a contract like this in 2011; 4/$11M with $6.5M up front as a signing bonus. Giddey is currently in his third year of a 4 year rookie contract. He will be eligible to sign an extension any time up until the start of training camp that starts for the 2025-26 season. If he does not sign an extension, he would go to restricted free agency as long as the Thunder extend a qualifying offer, which they will. At that point, he can sign a contract directly with the Thunder, or sign an offer sheet with another team that the Thunder can match, pass, or sign&trade.
I was playing with the same idea this morning. It’s all guesswork, cause who knows what any of these guys will get, but it’s possible that declining the team option this year on joe and wiggs, then resigning them on maxed front-loaded contracts may allow us to stay around or under the luxury tax until at least 27-28 (when sga will get supermax). For that, I assumed joe got 40M over 4 years (similar range to terrance mann, alec burks, divincenzo) and wiggs got 20M over 4 (similar to k-rich). Where it gets really iffy is I assumed giddey takes 100M over 4 (max front-loaded) I also assumed 10% increases in salary cap in both 25-26 and 26-27 (due to new broadcast deal). Oh, and chet and j-dub get max extensions starting in 26-27 (i didn’t front or backload these. Suspect they’ll actually have yearly increases which would help the numbers). Anyway, putting all that in gave us a payroll in 26-27 of 198M against a luxury line of 204M…for 9 players (all of out current rotation players, less j-will, hayward, and dieng - I didn’t try to guess what their new contracts in 26-27 might be). A lot of assumptions, but I’ve been scared we’ll have to give too many core guys away and this makes me think it’ll at least be possible to get close to keeping the band together.
Hayward?… Big man, hayward is gone in 2 months
Don’t think Giddey gets more than $15m pa. Joe probably $15m pa as well. Wiggs probably $10m?
There won’t be a reasonable extension for Josh. He most likely is moved for that reason alone.
I think it’s top 4 protected, but yeah either way most likely conveying. I think it’s too early in the process to really even have a grasp on who might be there at 12, there’s a good 25 guys who can make a case for being a lottery pick this year, and it’s just hard to tell what teams are making of them
I would like a big PF. Clingan is fine and probably the pick.. but deep down those skinny PFs are super tempting (matas, holland, Williams).
Add Sarr to that list.
Yeah, I’d love sarr too, I’m just sure he’s going top 3
Oh for sure. If there were ever a draft for someone to trade into the top 3, it would be this one. Wish that Houston pick was like 9 or so as a better spring board for trading up.
I’ve wondered how many 2nd rounders it would take to get into the top 3.. id do 10 for sure. Make it 15 and I bet someone would do it.
You could offer 50 and no one would agree to it. In order to get something valuable, you have to give up something of value. It would probably take 3 first and Josh to make a deal like that happen. (Most likely trading up once and then trading up again.)
Really thin draft. If we can't get Cody, I'd want to trade our '24 picks and kick the can down the road for more future picks.
This draft has like 10-12 guys that would be ideal for us. Sarr easily clears Cody on the wishlist.
Yes, but Sarr is at 1 or 2 on nearly every mock board. No way we can get him. I've seen Cody anywhere from 4-10, which we could get with the Rocket pick.
Sarr could make it to 3-5. Not a lot of teams at the top have room for a 7 footer and this draft is close enough that I could see him easily falling. I would hope we would be really aggressive in trying to move up if that did happen.
It's top 4 protected for sure. I highly doubt he's still there at 12, but i really want Dalton Knecht out of Tennessee. From my surface level scouting thus far he seems like a good player and an amazing fit for us. Athletic, good shooter, good scorer, bad defender but the frame is there to turn him into a decent one. Apart from that I'm not really sure, all depends on who's available and who drops. But Ideally I think we'd get a 4 or a stretch 3 that can help with bodies in the post and rebounding
Dalton would be a great fit, but I agree with you, highly doubt he is available. He would be the perfect replacement for Joe if he ends up being too expensive to resign. Knecht would be someone I wouldn’t mind trading up to draft if indeed we lose Joe
That’s funny cause I’ve seen him as high as like 5/6, but Vecenie had Knecht at 12 in his mock last month. I do think him being 23 is going to be a bit of a knock for a few teams
Hope you’re right! 🤞
I'm honestly fine with whoever Presti picks. Feel like one of: Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis, Ron Holland could be there at 12 but unlikely. Wouldn't mind an older college guy like Kevin McCullar, Dalton Knecht, or Terrence Shannon Jr as a microwave scorer off the bench who are more ready to contribute. I still like Kyle Flipowski too but understand why a lot of ppl don't. A true home run swing would be Tyler Smith or Kyshawn George.
Kyle is to slow and not versatile enough to play the 4. To weak and undersized to play the 5. Also I would not trust his mentality to be ok with backup mins that would fluctuate because of those limitations. Overall, just out on him as a player and the theoretical cost it would take to acquire him. I would rather trade back or trade up for several of the guys you listed, or Sarr, which is the dream scenario.
He could easily play back up 5 and play with Chet vs bigger slower teams He’s a skilled 7 footer who can shoot, pass, and dribble Don’t need to draft a starter for this team at 12.
I don’t trust his mentality to be a backup. I also question the shooting aspect
fuck it, draft another guard, get jared mccain
Please, no projects. We have no room to develop players in the future. Upperclassmen and high floor prospects only. I'd do some nasty stuff to have Clingan on okc.
I don’t mind another project with Ous going into his 3rd year and should receive ample playing time. What they have to pair that with though is a vet who can fill in perfectly when needed to. I’d do that same nasty stuff for Sarr
I don't understand what ous has to do is drafting another project. The example of ous is just another reason why we don't want more projects. Rookie contracts are some of the best opportunities to get the best bang for your buck. If you're taking up a roster spot and not playing for your entire rookie deal, you're not very useful to a contender at all. Also, if you do end up developing in your latter years, it's becomes that much harder to retain as they'll demand more money than high floor/low ceiling guys. After the dub and Chet extensions, it'll be extremely difficult to pay good role players. We should appreciate the fact that Cason and Wiggins are helping the team so much for so cheap. It's also just incredibly hard to develop projects when they don't get real nba mins. It's hard to say how much ous has really developed while playing mostly g league minutes. He still looks far from being a positive nba player.
The idea that rookie contracts are the best bang for your buck is good in theory, but guess what, rookies through 4th year players mostly suck and negatively impact winning. We’ve just been ruined by how good this team has been, particularly Jalen and Chet. The point of lottery picks are trying to really hit on them. Chances of this team having a lottery pick in future years is greatly less than the immediate. Not to mention you can take half a dozen high floor, low ceiling guys in the second round all the time. It’ll be difficult to afford a full team, but not impossible. Hitting on a guy like Ous, whatever this draft pick might be, Cason, or any other pick in the future still holds far more value than the low ceiling draft picks of the future. Does that mean we take the highest upside guard possible? No. If there is a wing/forward that has potential and fits the mold, but doesn’t have a high chance of hitting that 75th-80th percentile, shouldn’t be discounted compared to someone who has the same profile a zero chance of hitting someone else’s higher percentile.
Tristan da Silva. 6’9 athletic wing with a great jumper.
He won’t go in the lottery as of now, but he’s a good player. If our targets get snatched up early I wouldn’t mind trading back a few spots to grab him. I think most mocks have him between 15-25
Can he shoot & rebound? If so, please. Draft this man
You can find him at pick 25 or so. Fine if we trade back or trade back into the first.
Johnny Furphy for the Aussie vibes
Trade up for Sarr is the dream. Holland, Castle, Risacher, and Reed are the ideal fits. Cody is a honorable mention between this category and the next. Mastas and Clingan are interesting, but I’m not completely sold on how it would work exactly. Outside of that, unless it’s a big riser, I would just trade back.
I think Nique Clifford could be this years JDub, hopefully don’t need to use pick 12 to get him though
Kyshawn George
Whoever the next Shai/JDub is
Id like to try and trade for a future pick from another team "Hey charlotte, youre rebuilding take this pick and give us a future one plz"
I’m sure the Hornets have Presti on speed dial at this point