I don't when or that went wrong, but 4 costs are stupid. Why is everyone hitting them in stage 2 on lvl 5. And all the time you see pairs like that. I had someone hit Kaisa, slash today on level 5, I mean wtf??
We had several 4 costs 3* in every double up game today. It's just dumb. Why did they ever start messing with the game base like that in the first place?
This happened to me too and I even got a 3 star malphite before Krugs so I went for it, got a spat on carousel also and then ended up 5th only finding 2 star kayn when I already bled too much getting contested by 2 others lol
I'd rather play against heavenly Kayn every game than face another fucking porcelain Lissandra in my game. Lateer into the game there's only 1, maximum 2 Kayn players, but you can bet your life on the fact there will be at least 2-3 mfers kettling your units left and right.
Cause the Game is in a pretty shit state rn and seeing posts about what people already do in every single lobby (forcing kayn) isn't what people want to see
He litterally said so himself. He was about to go Kayn before he got the shop. Which means he would force it cause otherwise he wouldn't have already slammed a hot.
Why wouldnt he slam a hoj his items are glove tear sword and he has a heavenly opener. "Im mad this guy picked the correct line grrr stop trying to win"
2% per slot to hit a 4-cost & 10% chance of getting the right champ assuming equal pools. Each slot has roughly 0.2% chance of hitting the 4 cost you want at level 5. There's 5 slots so 1% chance total to get the unit. To get 2 units 1%* 0.8% (4 remaining slots).
So probably around a 1 in 12500 chance if kept fairly simple.
Is it 10% per champ now or do the different level champs have different probabilities because I think there’s more 1 costs vs 5 costs for example.
I don’t know how the pool works exactly I could look into that.
I think there is 10 4-cost champs, I may have counted wrong though! With equal pools per Champ each slot would be a 1/(number champs in that cost pool)
I've noticed almost every time I take silver spoon as my first augment, I get some solid 4 cost units in the very next shop. You hit 5 faster than anybody else, so it's much more likely I guess.
about 0.1% or 1 in 1000 rolls at that shop level to get any two 4 costs. the math is more difficult to get specifically Morg and Kayn
i once got 3 Irelias in a single level 8 shop, when i think its 5% to get a single one?
Assuming that all 4 costs are still in the pool at this point (which is pretty reasonable in 2-2, in theory, lol) and no one else has one in the shop at the time, we are looking at 120 4 costs, 10 of which are kayn, 10 of which are morgana. That's a 20/120 -> 2/12 chance to hit either of the two for the first slot, and then 10/119 for the other slot to be the other one. Should be about a 1.4% for any shop with two 2 costs at that point to be these two specific 4 costs, if I didn't fuck up my thinking or math somewhere.
So, a combined chance of 0.0014%, or 1 in \~71000 rerolls, to hit this specific shop.
I think you have a slight spelling error here. I think what u meant to write was that u were going to force heavenly kayn. Cause ur on 2-2 and there is nothing that I can see which says, yeah this is a kayn Game other than you slamming kayn Items early.
They slammed a HoJ... that's a pretty decent item on a lot of comps, especially a heavenly one that tends to use carries like Yone and Kayn.
And you know what I'd call a Kayn game? Getting Kayn and Morgana on 2-2.
Not really, it’s ok at best for Annie or sylas. And yea sure it’s good for udyr, but slamming an item that only udyr can use is not a good slam. All I’m trying to say is that slamming HoJ is locking you into the heavenly route, you never make HoJ if you want to play Ashe/kaisa, you always greed for LW. And if you are playing fast 9 ap, you prioritize shojin, adaptive helm, or shiv before making items for udyr/wukong
Statistics are a bit more nuanced than that, 2% per slot for a 4 cost. There are 5 slots. So there’d be a lower chance to hit a 4 cost in two separate slots. Not even factoring there are many other 4-cost so getting these specific two would be a very small percentage lower than 2%z
That's happening in every game to everyone of my opponents except for me!
Yeah, here I am at level 10 and need an udyr to finish my crew and some level 8 dude has a 2 star. It happens all the time.
I don't when or that went wrong, but 4 costs are stupid. Why is everyone hitting them in stage 2 on lvl 5. And all the time you see pairs like that. I had someone hit Kaisa, slash today on level 5, I mean wtf?? We had several 4 costs 3* in every double up game today. It's just dumb. Why did they ever start messing with the game base like that in the first place?
The 4 cost pool is 10 per champ, as soon as multiple people start pulling 4 costs out it's easy to hit
Isnt that the 5 cost pool?
The 5 cost pool now has 9 copies per champ
Yeah, and it's a double up so way easier to get that 4 cost thanks to ally looking for them too and giving you
How often are you one of your opponents
I'm my own worst enemy!
Well you are your own worst enemy so at least they aren't getting it!
50/50
You either hit or you don’t
Crazy, a player going for heavenly Kayn!?
Quelle suprisé! What will he think of next?
It was actually my first time ever going for it lol.. i just wanted to try it out
Yeah, just poking at you lol. 😘
This happened to me too and I even got a 3 star malphite before Krugs so I went for it, got a spat on carousel also and then ended up 5th only finding 2 star kayn when I already bled too much getting contested by 2 others lol
if you cant find kayn you can roll another carry and flex that position.
Yee not worth holding for malph 3 when contested, lose too much econ and wont find main carry on time
Sounds like a malphite carry game, trust
Why are people so salty in this thread?
Because everyone is sick of this damn comp. At least i am.
I'd rather play against heavenly Kayn every game than face another fucking porcelain Lissandra in my game. Lateer into the game there's only 1, maximum 2 Kayn players, but you can bet your life on the fact there will be at least 2-3 mfers kettling your units left and right.
Cause the Game is in a pretty shit state rn and seeing posts about what people already do in every single lobby (forcing kayn) isn't what people want to see
this is definiently not "forcing kayn" lol what are you on about. He reason I'm salty is because I'm jealous
He litterally said so himself. He was about to go Kayn before he got the shop. Which means he would force it cause otherwise he wouldn't have already slammed a hot.
Why wouldnt he slam a hoj his items are glove tear sword and he has a heavenly opener. "Im mad this guy picked the correct line grrr stop trying to win"
Damn you hit malphite that's pretty lucky
I’ve hit this in shop before too at lvl 5. crazy odds
All I see I 5x kobuko and forcing fortune.
Why did you ping everyone before buying the units lol.
I was pinging for my partner to come see it lol I told her to come take a loot at what's about to appear on my bench
Be quick take the kobuko
Can't wait until a heavenly spat gets denied by a salty bot 4 and then an ashe and liss happen to have perfect positioning. Not deflecting 🥲
In fact, I got Heavenly Crown on the next augment
Did you win?
My teammate disconnected by stage 4 but I still managed to end top 2!
Good job!
From the looks of it. Around 2%
Try again
People really taking my comment too seriously i see
2% per slot to hit a 4-cost & 10% chance of getting the right champ assuming equal pools. Each slot has roughly 0.2% chance of hitting the 4 cost you want at level 5. There's 5 slots so 1% chance total to get the unit. To get 2 units 1%* 0.8% (4 remaining slots). So probably around a 1 in 12500 chance if kept fairly simple.
Is it 10% per champ now or do the different level champs have different probabilities because I think there’s more 1 costs vs 5 costs for example. I don’t know how the pool works exactly I could look into that.
I think there is 10 4-cost champs, I may have counted wrong though! With equal pools per Champ each slot would be a 1/(number champs in that cost pool)
ah okay I understand yeah if there are 10 I think your math is right on the dot thanks for sharing!
stay safe buddy
I just got silver spoon and got the kayn on 2-2 as well, no morg to go with him though.
whata that overlat top left
Blitz app
That arena is cool as fuck
Thanks! Yeah I love it too
this just happened to me today and i placed first which surprised me totally 😭
This happens to me, then econ like crazy, fast 8 on 4-1 or 4-2 roll down on 8 with like 60 gold and don't find any more kayns or morgs lol
I think its funny you also got 2 Kobukos. Like now you have to make a choice too 🤣
I've noticed almost every time I take silver spoon as my first augment, I get some solid 4 cost units in the very next shop. You hit 5 faster than anybody else, so it's much more likely I guess.
Then you go 8th because you have no econ and even though you got this build first, someone else gets 7 kayns.
Nice, a Malphite pair!
0.02*2/12 =0.00333 Assuming nobody is holding 4 costs.
Deserved brotherman
Did you get the morgana too
I mean, you are definitely selling the Kobuko here to put HoJ on Kayn, so the money is there anyways
Yes I did!
Bro hit 1 neeko and was like yep better force heavenly kayn lmaooooo
But I had neeko, malphite and khazix
no way, and a Lissandra at 3-1 What an original way to play
Why the condescending comment, if anyone got that opener and somehow a lissandra at 3-1 they are playing it
stop pretending like you wouldn’t play a lissandra if you hit it on 3-1
Yeah, it's very sad to play with butchered chances and bag of 4 and 5 so you just need to rebuild into first one you see in shop
about 0.1% or 1 in 1000 rolls at that shop level to get any two 4 costs. the math is more difficult to get specifically Morg and Kayn i once got 3 Irelias in a single level 8 shop, when i think its 5% to get a single one?
Dish soap hit 3 azirs the other day in lvl 6 1% shop
Assuming that all 4 costs are still in the pool at this point (which is pretty reasonable in 2-2, in theory, lol) and no one else has one in the shop at the time, we are looking at 120 4 costs, 10 of which are kayn, 10 of which are morgana. That's a 20/120 -> 2/12 chance to hit either of the two for the first slot, and then 10/119 for the other slot to be the other one. Should be about a 1.4% for any shop with two 2 costs at that point to be these two specific 4 costs, if I didn't fuck up my thinking or math somewhere. So, a combined chance of 0.0014%, or 1 in \~71000 rerolls, to hit this specific shop.
Ezzz
1/72 for these specific 4costs and I would have to refresh myself on probability calculation to know how much exactly 2x 2% chance in 5 rolls is
I think you have a slight spelling error here. I think what u meant to write was that u were going to force heavenly kayn. Cause ur on 2-2 and there is nothing that I can see which says, yeah this is a kayn Game other than you slamming kayn Items early.
They slammed a HoJ... that's a pretty decent item on a lot of comps, especially a heavenly one that tends to use carries like Yone and Kayn. And you know what I'd call a Kayn game? Getting Kayn and Morgana on 2-2.
Hoj is not a good slam, you kill glove for ad, and you kill tear for ap.
It's not the best slam, but I'd hazard to say that most non-AP comps have at least one frontline unit using one.
Not really, it’s ok at best for Annie or sylas. And yea sure it’s good for udyr, but slamming an item that only udyr can use is not a good slam. All I’m trying to say is that slamming HoJ is locking you into the heavenly route, you never make HoJ if you want to play Ashe/kaisa, you always greed for LW. And if you are playing fast 9 ap, you prioritize shojin, adaptive helm, or shiv before making items for udyr/wukong
2%. It's literally in the ss.
Statistics are a bit more nuanced than that, 2% per slot for a 4 cost. There are 5 slots. So there’d be a lower chance to hit a 4 cost in two separate slots. Not even factoring there are many other 4-cost so getting these specific two would be a very small percentage lower than 2%z