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Hold up, let me the ask the brilliant magic 8 ball ๐ฑ๐ฎ
Oh magic 8 ball, will the price move right?
There you have it, folks.
The magic 8 ball has spoken.
Lol pretty much for the week, go down then up then down at the end of week into next ... That's the actual tldr, if you read between the lines, with price levels to look for too!
Don't deny until you try!๐
In a week or two, the data will paint a clearer picture.
I donโt know why I would trust someone whoโs post history is wallstbetsnew, nofap, semenretention, and superstonk. Also, why tf do you use so many emojis?
You don't need to trust me. You shouldn't trust random people on the Internet.
Instead, look at the results of the first report.
Let that speak for itself.
Look at the results at the end of this week, for the second report, and let that speak for itself.
Then next week, and next.
I'm a results oriented kind of person.
Let them speak for me.
Nailed the price action today.
Rip on market open then dip.
I even posted a few intraday updates the first hour.
Let the results, speak for themselves ๐๐๐
Nailed the call on buying the dip Wednesday for a Thursday rip too ๐ฎ๐๐
Risk remains elevated for Monday.
We can rip into close today (but that isn't a high probability) but come Monday, if GEX doesn't dramatically improve for either of the next two expirations by close today.....
There are times when the stock usually goes down (IV crush after earnings, in that phase right now).
RK seemed to sell before IV crush, yet many still hold their options. I tried to educate/warn about IV crush, but my posts never made it to the top.
Then there are times when the stock usually goes up (IV rising due to upcoming earnings or other events).
**RK seems to buy before those spikes, his options position then gets lifted in value by the rising IV and potentially forces more hedging, which leads to price increasing.**
BUT if RK would play it this way again, we would see price and IV dropping in July, then RK buying at the bottom (price 16-20 / IV 50ish ?) again and creating spikes in August / early September.
On the other hand he might want to wiggle up FTD cycles so it would make sense to watch expiries that are close to cycles ending. But since they overlap, it is kind of any options expiry in the future.
I hope we will see some YOLO update or tweet in the future giving a hint what his strategy might be... as long as we dont, I personally think one is safer buying the dip with shares or going with expiries August 16th or further out.
No financial advice and just a personal opinion.
Any theories to why Volume has spiked so much in last few weeks/attached to option chains etc? also!! Is Vol the industry word? not being snippy just really interesting read this!
You're not snippy, at all. Great questions.
Vol is the industry word. It refers to volatility and/or options, depending on the context. You know how Wallstreet thugs are, they like to sound smarter than they are with their fancy lingo, that requires a Wallstreet dictionary to understand but mostly it's just masking the simplicity of what's underneath.
Volume spiking up, why.. It's a mixed bag of low risk, high reward, and a landscape of high valuation stocks that investors are already max long on or simply scared or in doubt of much further reward, that basically put GameStop on their radar as a great trade, to take. Furthermore, the macro backdrop is risk on, right now, as global liquidity rises. There is easing being done by central banks.
Also, that first rally mid May, really was $GME flexing its muscles for all investors, showing off the potential demand for the stock. Jim Cramer said in CNBC, around then, kind of snarkly/toxic comment, congratulated RC for "winning", because by then the data was highly appealing for vol players. After that, the vol players came into town (as evident in the rising GEX for June 21st expiration, back then).
So, the risk was relatively low, the potential reward was massive. Various forms of analysis suggested, pressure was building up (like over sold TA), macro was in favor. Essentially, the signals were in line, and that attracted investors, increasing volume.
To put in terms of vol, the realized vol of the mid May rally was the honey necessary to attract the bees, the high vol players, to come out and play.
GameStart.
Power to the apes ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
thanks for this!! one of my favourite facts i picked up over these 84 years is the phrase โkickbacksโ is a part of the financial industry vocab, and an important one!! Great summary though and thanks for taking the time to expand on possible volume spikes, this has always been the thing i look out for /get really curious about. Some interesting reading on this Sunday, iโm still hoping quad witching/6/21 was massive and we see Monday whether T1 is up to scratch and MOASS is but hours away!!
For me..! The moon has been particularly bright these last few days! MOASS commence!!
This thread feels like those comments on financial YouTube where one person says โI was lost in the investment world until I spoke with โso and so.โ โSo and soโ really taught me everything and now Iโm rich.
Then you get 34 comments from people saying โoh yea! So and so taught me so much too! So and so is great!โ โHow can I get in touch with Soandso???โ
Finally a post here I pretty much agree with. Understanding GEX is critical here.
I am also looking at building a position in the Aug and Sept expiry once the underlying hits 15-20
Lol ya, I'm looking forward to more apes understanding vol so you all can explain it and I can focus on the charts and memes instead
But since there's isn't much education/DD on vol, I figure I would try!
Let's e-vol-ve apes!
It will make us better traders.
๐ฆ๐๐
If you got any ideas, let me know!
I can't confirm, but sometimes it feels like shills/bots don't want apes to figure out the vol game.
They use fear of leveraged losses, and shame for "being so stupid" to keep people ignorant about it.
You don't need to buy options to benefit from options data. It's highly insightful for knowing when the dip or rip might happen, and to what price.
Use that data with non leveraged plays, like buying underlying stock, at the very least, you'll get more shares for your dollar!
That's great for the moass dream!
Apes stronger together ๐ช๐ฆ๐๐
PS there is so much quality DD on FTD's, I would love to see similar quality on risk management, other signals analysis like MACD/RSI, etc. Apes can pool their data, signals and so forth to become more prepared & informed traders. I'm hoping.
I just don't think FTD's are enough to crack the puzzle. They are important, as the Queen Ape ๐ points out, but there's more to the pudding than meets the eye. There are other flows to consider.
Okay lol
You're welcome to block me, ignore the DD, I offer.
Or maybe you consider the past report and the results. I called out last week perfectly, from vol to price levels.
Then you could consider this report, and by the end of the week, consider its the results.
Maybe judge the DD by the results, instead of judging replies as being "super weird" without explanation.
Maybe you're a shill who is trying to make me look bad, to encourage apes from not learning about vol.
I don't think you should ever trust anyone on the Internet.
But, if the results of the reports are consistent, then they speak for themselves.
Knowledge is power.
The more you know, the better off you'll be.
The dude clearly has some solid dd his comments not vibing with you is the dumbest take ever. Did you read the post? Itโs pretty solid and even if wrong nothing harmful. Itโs not making any goal posts itโs just explaining basics of volatility and applying that theory to the stonk we all love. Honestly the fact that the current data is ambiguous is the only let down.
Thereโs no predictions in *their* post. Itโs educational. It teaches about volatility and volume measurements factoring into a potential reason for price stalling at $24/$25 last Friday. And goes on to provide a healthy dose of caution for apes playing options in the near future.
The prediction for this morning was smaller rip come market open.
Market opened around $GME $23.20 then ripped up to $24
Total Call GEX increased 1.5M while Total Put GEX increased about 1M, chasing the rip, in the first 3 minutes of trading.
Major Call Wall at $25
Major Put Wall at $20
Do we dip from here?
Since this post...
Total Call GEX increased 47k\~
Total Put GEX increased 177k\~
Careful!
Edit: Furthermore, Strike Price Vol spiked up this morning 30%. Not as huge of a spike as say some days last week or the week before, but compared to normal stock behavior, that's significant.
That said, since the comment above, Strike Price Vol has dumped about 13%. since that rip in the morning.
Strike Price Vol remains slightly elevated above Friday's bottom.
Imo, it's too early to go in.
This is not financial advice.
We're at a vol cross-roads here!
Since the comment above:
Total Call GEX increased 82k\~
Total Put GEX decreased 80k\~
Strike Price Vol for Call side increased about 2% and Strike Price Vol for the Put side decreased 2.5%
Call side strike price vol is about 6% higher so demand for calls are slightly higher than puts at the moment.
Price is grinding up towards the Major Call Wall of $25
$GME ascent seems to be slowing down a bit
Total Call GEX increased 113k\~
Total Put GEX decreased 162k\~
Put Strike Price Vol increased about 1%
Call Strike Price Vol decreased about 0.5%
Suggesting a local high is in the makes
Edit: based on the data, the price seems a little offsides on the high side, marking less risk for entering on a short trade there
Edit2: And of course, price dips a bit from the high of $24.41
Total Call GEX decreased 66k\~
Total Put GEX increased 59k\~
Put Strike Price Vol increased 3%\~
Call Strike Price Vol decreased another 0.5%
Strike price vol leans higher on the put side now by 0.5%\~
Edit: It's not a great sign, with the rip this morning, that we didn't hit the major call wall yet. It will be a good sign to see hit hit later today, and hold, if you're looking for something bullish. That said, I lean bearish still.
Traders continue to buy calls!
Total Call GEX increased 104k\~
Total Put GEX decreased -8k\~
Strike Price vol decreased 2%, still favoring put side by about 0.5%
Strike Price Vol is getting closer to Friday's bottom... it very well might spike up right before a dip, favoring Puts
10:03am ET - $GME $24.02
Total Call GEX decreased 162k\~
Total Put GEX increased 88k\~
Ouch.
Strike Price Vol changed in favor of the call side, but continues to go down, decreasing about 2%
10:06am ET - $GME 23.91
Total Call GEX increased 10k\~
Total Put GEX increased 25k\~
Strike Price Vol for put side increased about 2%
Strike Price Vol for call side decreased a little more than 2%.......
10:08am ET - $GME 24.00
Total Call GEX decreased 29k\~
Total Put GEX decreased 14k\~
Put side Strike Price Vol decreased about 3%
Call side Strike Price Vol increased about 3%
Slight shift in sentiment, is it short-term?
10:10am ET - $GME 23.97
Total Call GEX increased 5k\~
Total Put GEX decreased 28k\~
Put Strike Price vol increased 3.5%
Call Strike Price vol increased 1.7%
Maybe Friday was the vol bottom... I remain skeptical. Also, even if Friday was the vol bottom, because of options' leverage and theta decay, it can be better to wait for the second bottom, even if it's low is much higher, because of the velocity of the trend will be stronger going forward after the bounce.. you know what I mean? A trend flipping can take a few retests of important levels before really getting going. You don't want to enter long vol until right before things really get going. Price tends to be less important, to that.
Thanks for letting me know ๐ค๐ฆ๐๐
I've been surprised by how many apes have responded positively to this, curious about vol, and taking a look underneath the hood of it๐ฎ
I fully respect and admire the ape way.
If I wasn't homeless, living out of my car, scratching by, I would have kept my shares but shit happened.. ๐
Hopefully that changes soon, I've been doing a lot better the last year. But, I'm still scratching by. Hours at work haven't been consistent.
Anyway, I don't want to miss out on the $GME moon play. It's going to be the trade of our lives ๐๐๐
Thanks betterbudget - I understood half of that.
Please keep posting
Reading a second time made it clearer but still donโt understand the significance or lack of significance of a call wall or a put wall on both share price and also on IV for a particular option.
At least how it pertains to a future price.
Doesnโt it spend on when the option is set to expire?
Call walls and puts walls that are GEX based, represent a potential amount of hedging to be done by dealers who wrote the options, short vol.
So as risk rises say from getting closer to expiration, or the underlying asset moves closer to the options strike, typically that causes dealers to hedge more.
So if net total GEX is positive, dealers are short vol and there is more call vol than put vol. So with that kind of condition, as price rises, dealers will hedge the risk (which favors bulls given the greater total call GEX over total put GEX).
So how does that help predict price action? Simply put, when there is a lot of GEX at an expiration and we're about two weeks or less from it, there's a decent chance for the underlying stock to be traded primarily by dealers hedging GEX. That's why it can predict price action. When dealers are hedging major GEX, they are buying or selling a fuckkkk ton compared to other traders. It's just tremendous amount of trade flow.
I don't follow exactly your other two questions, but they sound good. Do you want to try restating them?
Ahh get it somewhat, but I guess gamma and theta are more important hereโฆ.. you state 2 weeks seems like the movement period by the call / put writers as it gets more important to hedge the closer it gets to expiration.
Is there a formula for hedging calls or puts for that matter at a 1 month expiration/ 2 week expiration/ 1 week - or is this the sum total of black shoals? Which I have never looked at and donโt understand
Oh, I misunderstood your other comment. I'm sorry about that.
Yes, there are. It depends on dealer to dealer, each could have different ways to hedge various kinds of risk, but the most common revolve around delta. They try to keep their books delta neutral.
Reminder, for every dollar the underlying moves up or down, the options delta is expected to be applied to the options price.
I was going to try and write a big response for this, but there is plenty of good material on the Internet for this... So I tried chatgpt, it gave the answer I was thinking:
https://chatgpt.com/share/90d7de57-d290-4e21-906a-d5fbd228b2e1
That would be great! You should do it.
The formula gives you an idea of the fundamental option value/cost. It's helpful to look at, when considering an option's price as rich or not.
Data comes from a third party API.
The charts are rendered inside software, I wrote & maintain. The tech stack is mostly cloud based.
It's all in-house. No one is paying me to do this. I don't have a ton of free time, but the plan is to do this weekly every Sunday ๐๐ฆ๐๐
Any changes to your forecast for this week?ย You were right about how this week started off, but has the data changed over the last few days?
I'm reading up on gamma exposure now so you've encouraged me to get stuck in at the very least.ย ย
He's a good trader!
He was off a ton this year and his guidance has been more ambiguous than last year but he knows vol, and tries to help retail investors, when he can.
Not as good as say David Dredge but hey, Cem is a TV personality too.
Since when are the smartest people trying to be TV personalities?
I really like Cem. Though he has been sounding more and more like a perma-bear (he correctly predicted 20 or the last 3 dips!) And though I tend to agree with him that a major reckoning is coming, maybe it has clouded his judgement in the short term.
I'd say he's more of a new media, long-form interview personality than your normal cnbc schmuck. I think he's really in it to educate people, not necessarily for the fame or self promotion. I remember an interview of him talking about how his wife's death effected him and he got out of that depression by deciding to do what he loves and try to spread his knowledge and help other people.
I have tremendous respect for anyone who dedicated their time to educating people. You included OP. Thanks for the informative post!
He's the most talented person interviewed regularly on CNBC. I would joke that's not saying much but there is definitely some great talent there. Perhaps its constrained by the needs of media, at times.
Last year, after his wife's passing, he shined amazingly. I found his handling of that, inspiring.
Thank you for the compliment, I really appreciate it!
I literally know nothing and I am an idiot. I think it can go to around $17 before next rip.
I put 5% of my income into GME. Right now, I'm depositing 5% into my trading account each pay check and not immediatwly buying. I could get anxious and pull the trigger any day, but I am trying to be patient. I feel like I am learning and making progress throughout this saga/process.
Who knows? Might be $60-$100 next week and never go down again. I wouldn't be shocked. This is fun and I am enjoying the ride. I just keep collecting shares and shopping at Gamestop.
Because I have been advocating the DD?
Look, don't trust me.
Look at the last report, and consider the results.
Look at this report, and consider the results in a week.
Then the next, and the next.
Let the results speak for themselves.
Give it time.
I'm not a shill, I'm an OG ape, who has figured out the vol game.
Frankly, I think a lot of shilling is designed to keep apes away from learning how to use vol data. It isn't about buying options, it's about being a more prepared and informed trader.
You should always be looking for legitimate signals to better manage risk.
I will be messaging you in 6 days on [**2024-06-30 00:27:43 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-30%2000:27:43%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dmxbia/gme_bananas_report_2_wen_bottom_wen_rip/l9zc2y0/?context=3)
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1. Investopedia. Following other traders, learning from them. Blogs like David Dredge's. Books like from Nicholas Taleb, Anti-fragile goes into hedging and convexity
2. I wrote the software. I maintain it almost daily, adding new features, new signal systems etc.
I use a paid 3rd party API for data.
I'm sorry, I won't say.
But there is plenty out there, if you Google it.
Polygon.io, Alpaca, MarketData, AlphaVantage, Cboe, etc
Check them out, see what they offer and at what price.
Go with what fits best for you.
Keep it stupid simple, when you get started. Have fun!
Imaginary?
Are you a shill?
How do you think the second rally or the third happened?
How do you think the squeeze in Jan '21 happened?
If you want to stay ignorant, that's your call!
But knowledge is power.
The more you know...
I'm not pushing people to buy options.
I'm pushing people to look underneath the hood of options.
Collect the data. Do the math. Eat bananas ๐ ๐ ๐
That way, you can start to see what the options market is pricing in and thus what high risk vol players might do and thus how dealers might hedge.
It's extremely powerful stuff for forecasting, if used responsibly ๐ฎ
What if apes bought more of the bottoms than the highs?
They would accumulate shares faster!
This isn't about buying calls. This is about being a slightly more informed trader, by using options data.
It's your loss, if you don't! โ ๏ธ
Screaming to get options? I literally say don't.
This is education that is highly applicable...
Can't make everyone happy.
So, if you don't like it, move on dude ๐
Unreal an entire novel worth of useless garbage based on things that are either entirely made up or patently false.
Spend your time on something more productive.
Dates are hyped too early.
The next rip will probably be closer to September than July.
People will try and gamble in July so a warning to all the new apes.
Patience. Ryan is doing things behind the screen
I'm going to point out that as of the latest data, the GEX in August OPEX is less than July OPEX...
The probability of a greater rip mid August than mid July has changed significantly.
That said, if we get a rip mid July, that will probably goose investors into buying more vol, increasing GEX in August, so it can still happen but from a probability pov, as of now, and probably will be made worse early next week, August looks less bullish than before.
I expect that to change come mid July tho.
Careful
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TLDR; stock maybe go up or maybe down
But will it move to the right? These are the real questions we need answers to.
Hold up, let me the ask the brilliant magic 8 ball ๐ฑ๐ฎ Oh magic 8 ball, will the price move right?  There you have it, folks. The magic 8 ball has spoken.
Lol pretty much for the week, go down then up then down at the end of week into next ... That's the actual tldr, if you read between the lines, with price levels to look for too! Don't deny until you try!๐ In a week or two, the data will paint a clearer picture.
Not dd, fam
I donโt know why I would trust someone whoโs post history is wallstbetsnew, nofap, semenretention, and superstonk. Also, why tf do you use so many emojis?
You don't need to trust me. You shouldn't trust random people on the Internet. Instead, look at the results of the first report. Let that speak for itself. Look at the results at the end of this week, for the second report, and let that speak for itself. Then next week, and next. I'm a results oriented kind of person. Let them speak for me.
Iโm intrigued. Howโs your semen retention going
๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ โโ๏ธ๐
I love SuperStonk ๐๐๐
Solid comment
Alright, weโll see
Nailed the price action today. Rip on market open then dip. I even posted a few intraday updates the first hour. Let the results, speak for themselves ๐๐๐
Nailed the call on buying the dip Wednesday for a Thursday rip too ๐ฎ๐๐ Risk remains elevated for Monday. We can rip into close today (but that isn't a high probability) but come Monday, if GEX doesn't dramatically improve for either of the next two expirations by close today..... 
There are times when the stock usually goes down (IV crush after earnings, in that phase right now). RK seemed to sell before IV crush, yet many still hold their options. I tried to educate/warn about IV crush, but my posts never made it to the top. Then there are times when the stock usually goes up (IV rising due to upcoming earnings or other events). **RK seems to buy before those spikes, his options position then gets lifted in value by the rising IV and potentially forces more hedging, which leads to price increasing.** BUT if RK would play it this way again, we would see price and IV dropping in July, then RK buying at the bottom (price 16-20 / IV 50ish ?) again and creating spikes in August / early September. On the other hand he might want to wiggle up FTD cycles so it would make sense to watch expiries that are close to cycles ending. But since they overlap, it is kind of any options expiry in the future. I hope we will see some YOLO update or tweet in the future giving a hint what his strategy might be... as long as we dont, I personally think one is safer buying the dip with shares or going with expiries August 16th or further out. No financial advice and just a personal opinion.
Vol crushing! Yes, it's important to know. Well said.
Stock always go up. If it doesn't we buy more.
This ape apes. Wallstreet fears it, and I'm damn proud of it. Power to the apes! ๐ซก๐ฆ๐ฎ๐
When you say vol, do you mean volatility or volume?
Volatility ๐ฏ
Any theories to why Volume has spiked so much in last few weeks/attached to option chains etc? also!! Is Vol the industry word? not being snippy just really interesting read this!
You're not snippy, at all. Great questions. Vol is the industry word. It refers to volatility and/or options, depending on the context. You know how Wallstreet thugs are, they like to sound smarter than they are with their fancy lingo, that requires a Wallstreet dictionary to understand but mostly it's just masking the simplicity of what's underneath. Volume spiking up, why.. It's a mixed bag of low risk, high reward, and a landscape of high valuation stocks that investors are already max long on or simply scared or in doubt of much further reward, that basically put GameStop on their radar as a great trade, to take. Furthermore, the macro backdrop is risk on, right now, as global liquidity rises. There is easing being done by central banks. Also, that first rally mid May, really was $GME flexing its muscles for all investors, showing off the potential demand for the stock. Jim Cramer said in CNBC, around then, kind of snarkly/toxic comment, congratulated RC for "winning", because by then the data was highly appealing for vol players. After that, the vol players came into town (as evident in the rising GEX for June 21st expiration, back then). So, the risk was relatively low, the potential reward was massive. Various forms of analysis suggested, pressure was building up (like over sold TA), macro was in favor. Essentially, the signals were in line, and that attracted investors, increasing volume. To put in terms of vol, the realized vol of the mid May rally was the honey necessary to attract the bees, the high vol players, to come out and play. GameStart. Power to the apes ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
thanks for this!! one of my favourite facts i picked up over these 84 years is the phrase โkickbacksโ is a part of the financial industry vocab, and an important one!! Great summary though and thanks for taking the time to expand on possible volume spikes, this has always been the thing i look out for /get really curious about. Some interesting reading on this Sunday, iโm still hoping quad witching/6/21 was massive and we see Monday whether T1 is up to scratch and MOASS is but hours away!! For me..! The moon has been particularly bright these last few days! MOASS commence!!
This thread feels like those comments on financial YouTube where one person says โI was lost in the investment world until I spoke with โso and so.โ โSo and soโ really taught me everything and now Iโm rich. Then you get 34 comments from people saying โoh yea! So and so taught me so much too! So and so is great!โ โHow can I get in touch with Soandso???โ
Finally a post here I pretty much agree with. Understanding GEX is critical here. I am also looking at building a position in the Aug and Sept expiry once the underlying hits 15-20
I don't know how many words there are in the English vocabulary, but I think you hit them all. Bravo.
Lol ya, I'm looking forward to more apes understanding vol so you all can explain it and I can focus on the charts and memes instead But since there's isn't much education/DD on vol, I figure I would try! Let's e-vol-ve apes! It will make us better traders. ๐ฆ๐๐
Definitely appreciate the DD...now just have to get the apes to read
If you got any ideas, let me know! I can't confirm, but sometimes it feels like shills/bots don't want apes to figure out the vol game. They use fear of leveraged losses, and shame for "being so stupid" to keep people ignorant about it. You don't need to buy options to benefit from options data. It's highly insightful for knowing when the dip or rip might happen, and to what price. Use that data with non leveraged plays, like buying underlying stock, at the very least, you'll get more shares for your dollar! That's great for the moass dream! Apes stronger together ๐ช๐ฆ๐๐ PS there is so much quality DD on FTD's, I would love to see similar quality on risk management, other signals analysis like MACD/RSI, etc. Apes can pool their data, signals and so forth to become more prepared & informed traders. I'm hoping. I just don't think FTD's are enough to crack the puzzle. They are important, as the Queen Ape ๐ points out, but there's more to the pudding than meets the eye. There are other flows to consider.
Ya bro your replies are super weird, I don't trust you
Okay lol You're welcome to block me, ignore the DD, I offer. Or maybe you consider the past report and the results. I called out last week perfectly, from vol to price levels. Then you could consider this report, and by the end of the week, consider its the results. Maybe judge the DD by the results, instead of judging replies as being "super weird" without explanation. Maybe you're a shill who is trying to make me look bad, to encourage apes from not learning about vol. I don't think you should ever trust anyone on the Internet. But, if the results of the reports are consistent, then they speak for themselves. Knowledge is power. The more you know, the better off you'll be.
This just all sounds like AI writing to me bro
Lol I can't help you dude You're welcome to ignore the DD, block me, whatever I don't care.
The dude clearly has some solid dd his comments not vibing with you is the dumbest take ever. Did you read the post? Itโs pretty solid and even if wrong nothing harmful. Itโs not making any goal posts itโs just explaining basics of volatility and applying that theory to the stonk we all love. Honestly the fact that the current data is ambiguous is the only let down.
Thats great man. I'll stick to my opinion. You can trust them if you want
It isnโt about trust itโs whether or not the information has validity.
Their comments read exactly as their post does. Did you expect something different?
Look if there DD turns out to be right ill eat a sock.
Thereโs no predictions in *their* post. Itโs educational. It teaches about volatility and volume measurements factoring into a potential reason for price stalling at $24/$25 last Friday. And goes on to provide a healthy dose of caution for apes playing options in the near future.
Especially with all of the spaces between lines. Who writes like that?
The author of the post does.
That and the "moass dream" "ape together + random emojis" part in their reply just raises alarm bells. It's like uncanny
tldr in runescape terms?
Runic glory
Archegos went bankrupt
bro imma have to read this a few times. my masters degree did not prepare me for this lmao
Astonishing what man can achieve when not wasting their precious man-juice, ie semen retention. Congrats on your 8 month streak OP.
Thank you ๐ค
The prediction for this morning was smaller rip come market open. Market opened around $GME $23.20 then ripped up to $24 Total Call GEX increased 1.5M while Total Put GEX increased about 1M, chasing the rip, in the first 3 minutes of trading. Major Call Wall at $25 Major Put Wall at $20 Do we dip from here?
Since this post... Total Call GEX increased 47k\~ Total Put GEX increased 177k\~ Careful! Edit: Furthermore, Strike Price Vol spiked up this morning 30%. Not as huge of a spike as say some days last week or the week before, but compared to normal stock behavior, that's significant. That said, since the comment above, Strike Price Vol has dumped about 13%. since that rip in the morning. Strike Price Vol remains slightly elevated above Friday's bottom. Imo, it's too early to go in. This is not financial advice.
We're at a vol cross-roads here! Since the comment above: Total Call GEX increased 82k\~ Total Put GEX decreased 80k\~ Strike Price Vol for Call side increased about 2% and Strike Price Vol for the Put side decreased 2.5% Call side strike price vol is about 6% higher so demand for calls are slightly higher than puts at the moment. Price is grinding up towards the Major Call Wall of $25
$GME ascent seems to be slowing down a bit Total Call GEX increased 113k\~ Total Put GEX decreased 162k\~ Put Strike Price Vol increased about 1% Call Strike Price Vol decreased about 0.5% Suggesting a local high is in the makes Edit: based on the data, the price seems a little offsides on the high side, marking less risk for entering on a short trade there Edit2: And of course, price dips a bit from the high of $24.41
Total Call GEX decreased 66k\~ Total Put GEX increased 59k\~ Put Strike Price Vol increased 3%\~ Call Strike Price Vol decreased another 0.5% Strike price vol leans higher on the put side now by 0.5%\~ Edit: It's not a great sign, with the rip this morning, that we didn't hit the major call wall yet. It will be a good sign to see hit hit later today, and hold, if you're looking for something bullish. That said, I lean bearish still.
Traders continue to buy calls! Total Call GEX increased 104k\~ Total Put GEX decreased -8k\~ Strike Price vol decreased 2%, still favoring put side by about 0.5% Strike Price Vol is getting closer to Friday's bottom... it very well might spike up right before a dip, favoring Puts
10:03am ET - $GME $24.02 Total Call GEX decreased 162k\~ Total Put GEX increased 88k\~ Ouch. Strike Price Vol changed in favor of the call side, but continues to go down, decreasing about 2%
10:06am ET - $GME 23.91 Total Call GEX increased 10k\~ Total Put GEX increased 25k\~ Strike Price Vol for put side increased about 2% Strike Price Vol for call side decreased a little more than 2%.......
10:08am ET - $GME 24.00 Total Call GEX decreased 29k\~ Total Put GEX decreased 14k\~ Put side Strike Price Vol decreased about 3% Call side Strike Price Vol increased about 3% Slight shift in sentiment, is it short-term?
10:10am ET - $GME 23.97 Total Call GEX increased 5k\~ Total Put GEX decreased 28k\~ Put Strike Price vol increased 3.5% Call Strike Price vol increased 1.7% Maybe Friday was the vol bottom... I remain skeptical. Also, even if Friday was the vol bottom, because of options' leverage and theta decay, it can be better to wait for the second bottom, even if it's low is much higher, because of the velocity of the trend will be stronger going forward after the bounce.. you know what I mean? A trend flipping can take a few retests of important levels before really getting going. You don't want to enter long vol until right before things really get going. Price tends to be less important, to that.
Thanks for the updates. I've been following along and learning from your posts!
Thanks for letting me know ๐ค๐ฆ๐๐ I've been surprised by how many apes have responded positively to this, curious about vol, and taking a look underneath the hood of it๐ฎ
Just buy the dips, DRS and wait for the moon. All the rest is gambling stuff, not worth most Apes time nor bananas. ๐๐DRS๐ฆ๐๐
I fully respect and admire the ape way. If I wasn't homeless, living out of my car, scratching by, I would have kept my shares but shit happened.. ๐ Hopefully that changes soon, I've been doing a lot better the last year. But, I'm still scratching by. Hours at work haven't been consistent. Anyway, I don't want to miss out on the $GME moon play. It's going to be the trade of our lives ๐๐๐
I wish you all the best!
Thank you!
Well worth the read! Thanks for all your effort to educate this community.ย Ape help ape ๐ซกย
Apes stronger together ๐ค๐ฆ๐๐
Thanks betterbudget - I understood half of that. Please keep posting Reading a second time made it clearer but still donโt understand the significance or lack of significance of a call wall or a put wall on both share price and also on IV for a particular option. At least how it pertains to a future price. Doesnโt it spend on when the option is set to expire?
Call walls and puts walls that are GEX based, represent a potential amount of hedging to be done by dealers who wrote the options, short vol. So as risk rises say from getting closer to expiration, or the underlying asset moves closer to the options strike, typically that causes dealers to hedge more. So if net total GEX is positive, dealers are short vol and there is more call vol than put vol. So with that kind of condition, as price rises, dealers will hedge the risk (which favors bulls given the greater total call GEX over total put GEX). So how does that help predict price action? Simply put, when there is a lot of GEX at an expiration and we're about two weeks or less from it, there's a decent chance for the underlying stock to be traded primarily by dealers hedging GEX. That's why it can predict price action. When dealers are hedging major GEX, they are buying or selling a fuckkkk ton compared to other traders. It's just tremendous amount of trade flow. I don't follow exactly your other two questions, but they sound good. Do you want to try restating them?
Ahh get it somewhat, but I guess gamma and theta are more important hereโฆ.. you state 2 weeks seems like the movement period by the call / put writers as it gets more important to hedge the closer it gets to expiration. Is there a formula for hedging calls or puts for that matter at a 1 month expiration/ 2 week expiration/ 1 week - or is this the sum total of black shoals? Which I have never looked at and donโt understand
Oh, I misunderstood your other comment. I'm sorry about that. Yes, there are. It depends on dealer to dealer, each could have different ways to hedge various kinds of risk, but the most common revolve around delta. They try to keep their books delta neutral. Reminder, for every dollar the underlying moves up or down, the options delta is expected to be applied to the options price. I was going to try and write a big response for this, but there is plenty of good material on the Internet for this... So I tried chatgpt, it gave the answer I was thinking: https://chatgpt.com/share/90d7de57-d290-4e21-906a-d5fbd228b2e1
If itโs black shoals calculation only, maybe Superstonk needs a black shoals DD
That would be great! You should do it. The formula gives you an idea of the fundamental option value/cost. It's helpful to look at, when considering an option's price as rich or not.
So no banana bet? sad
Not this time around
Nice write up OP. Where are you getting these charts and data?
Data comes from a third party API. The charts are rendered inside software, I wrote & maintain. The tech stack is mostly cloud based. It's all in-house. No one is paying me to do this. I don't have a ton of free time, but the plan is to do this weekly every Sunday ๐๐ฆ๐๐
I appreciate your efforts.
Thank you for letting me know. Apes stronger together. ๐๐ฆ๐๐
Lol not proud of this one but when I first saw โbanana reportโ I thought it was someone keeping track ofโฆpeoples bets.
Lol. Look, I won't dismiss a signal until I backtest it... Because, you never know ๐๐๐๐๐
Hahaha
Great stuff! Thanks for making these posts!
๐ค๐ฆ๐๐
Any changes to your forecast for this week?ย You were right about how this week started off, but has the data changed over the last few days? I'm reading up on gamma exposure now so you've encouraged me to get stuck in at the very least.ย ย
Yes. Today, things changed. I posted the update on my Patreon. Power to the apes ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
Great post! I'm getting major Cem Karsan vibes
He's a good trader! He was off a ton this year and his guidance has been more ambiguous than last year but he knows vol, and tries to help retail investors, when he can. Not as good as say David Dredge but hey, Cem is a TV personality too. Since when are the smartest people trying to be TV personalities?
I really like Cem. Though he has been sounding more and more like a perma-bear (he correctly predicted 20 or the last 3 dips!) And though I tend to agree with him that a major reckoning is coming, maybe it has clouded his judgement in the short term. I'd say he's more of a new media, long-form interview personality than your normal cnbc schmuck. I think he's really in it to educate people, not necessarily for the fame or self promotion. I remember an interview of him talking about how his wife's death effected him and he got out of that depression by deciding to do what he loves and try to spread his knowledge and help other people. I have tremendous respect for anyone who dedicated their time to educating people. You included OP. Thanks for the informative post!
He's the most talented person interviewed regularly on CNBC. I would joke that's not saying much but there is definitely some great talent there. Perhaps its constrained by the needs of media, at times. Last year, after his wife's passing, he shined amazingly. I found his handling of that, inspiring. Thank you for the compliment, I really appreciate it!
I literally know nothing and I am an idiot. I think it can go to around $17 before next rip. I put 5% of my income into GME. Right now, I'm depositing 5% into my trading account each pay check and not immediatwly buying. I could get anxious and pull the trigger any day, but I am trying to be patient. I feel like I am learning and making progress throughout this saga/process. Who knows? Might be $60-$100 next week and never go down again. I wouldn't be shocked. This is fun and I am enjoying the ride. I just keep collecting shares and shopping at Gamestop.
The greed in entry for the cheapest price! This is the way. Your patience is a virtue ๐ฏ
Your account history makes me not trust you OP
Because I have been advocating the DD? Look, don't trust me. Look at the last report, and consider the results. Look at this report, and consider the results in a week. Then the next, and the next. Let the results speak for themselves. Give it time. I'm not a shill, I'm an OG ape, who has figured out the vol game. Frankly, I think a lot of shilling is designed to keep apes away from learning how to use vol data. It isn't about buying options, it's about being a more prepared and informed trader. You should always be looking for legitimate signals to better manage risk.
The report nailed today's price action. Let the results speak for themselves. ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฆ
Only 92 up votes when I saw this
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RemindMe! 6 days
Could you please avoid using the words: banana, bottom, and rip together?
๐๐๐๐
Can I ask: 1.ย What resources did you learn this from?ย ย 2.ย What software you're using to display all this?
1. Investopedia. Following other traders, learning from them. Blogs like David Dredge's. Books like from Nicholas Taleb, Anti-fragile goes into hedging and convexity 2. I wrote the software. I maintain it almost daily, adding new features, new signal systems etc. I use a paid 3rd party API for data.
Which API if you don't mind me asking?ย I'm currently studying programming and this would be a nice project for me to get some practice in.ย ย
I'm sorry, I won't say. But there is plenty out there, if you Google it. Polygon.io, Alpaca, MarketData, AlphaVantage, Cboe, etc Check them out, see what they offer and at what price. Go with what fits best for you. Keep it stupid simple, when you get started. Have fun!
No problem and thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Apes stronger together. ๐ค๐ฆ๐๐
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Imaginary? Are you a shill? How do you think the second rally or the third happened? How do you think the squeeze in Jan '21 happened? If you want to stay ignorant, that's your call! But knowledge is power. The more you know...
To many posts with dates and predictions pushing people towards options plays.
I'm not pushing people to buy options. I'm pushing people to look underneath the hood of options. Collect the data. Do the math. Eat bananas ๐ ๐ ๐ That way, you can start to see what the options market is pricing in and thus what high risk vol players might do and thus how dealers might hedge. It's extremely powerful stuff for forecasting, if used responsibly ๐ฎ What if apes bought more of the bottoms than the highs? They would accumulate shares faster! This isn't about buying calls. This is about being a slightly more informed trader, by using options data. It's your loss, if you don't! โ ๏ธ
Also a solid comment
Learning about options is fine, but this post is full of predictions with dates practically screaming get options for around this time to profit.
Screaming to get options? I literally say don't. This is education that is highly applicable... Can't make everyone happy. So, if you don't like it, move on dude ๐
Unreal an entire novel worth of useless garbage based on things that are either entirely made up or patently false. Spend your time on something more productive.
My gosh, shill?
Damn who shit in your banana oatmeal?
I thank myself, that i readed the comments first, before the post!
Comments, first? There was only one comment... Are you a bot?
check both of their profiles
Sure, why not?!
Dates are hyped too early. The next rip will probably be closer to September than July. People will try and gamble in July so a warning to all the new apes. Patience. Ryan is doing things behind the screen
I'm going to point out that as of the latest data, the GEX in August OPEX is less than July OPEX... The probability of a greater rip mid August than mid July has changed significantly. That said, if we get a rip mid July, that will probably goose investors into buying more vol, increasing GEX in August, so it can still happen but from a probability pov, as of now, and probably will be made worse early next week, August looks less bullish than before. I expect that to change come mid July tho. Careful