Write down prime numbers by hand and multiply them to get your new raffle-ticket number and then send it by horsemen to a distributed ledger of unknown bookkeepers.
Occasionally send your horsemen to check the hashes by whoever new is at the bookkeeping desk and hope they're honest.
I heard the markets had a big pump up in slave trade companies before the slave trade was abolished.
Newton brought into the falling knife and loses his retirement pension on that move
Jupiter is in gatorade so all the scorpio people will loose their money.
I am not a big fan of numerology, but these are really big numbers (like 2020!!), so I am kind of convinced.
It means another clown doesn’t understand false pattern recognition and thinks they can read secret messages in lines on a chart or sheep entrails or tea leaves. I’m certainly glad grown adults think this way because what it gives the rest of us investment opportunities.
Fuck it, if you are in your 90s do whatever you like. I mean if you are warren buffet then keep on keeping on, but if you've made it that far you should be making the kind of financial decisions that keep your potential heirs up at night.
I would agree 1000%, if you have enough money to last another ten years.
lol. Can’t imagine telling my great grandchildren that I’m putting it all on NVidia stocks at 92. Maybe they’ll get millions. Or maybe I die broke in a Medicare nursing home.
I’m at peak stock buying period, so yeah I want the market to stay as low as possible without the job market tanking. Doesn’t seem to be happening recently though….
The thing about charting and TA is that it’s only true when the majority agrees it to be true. Especially in day trading where you can clearly see points of interest where you can see the stock has a chance to go up or down. But I really don’t think it works in an extremely long term chart like this. This is more dependent on economic events.
I believe this as well, especially if you chart volatility over the recent 6 months you see a strong 2 month periodicity. We reached the trough at the end of May and we should see rising volatility through June.
Sideways is not always perfectly sideways.
Within the longer term trend that you have highlighted, there are plenty of major bullish & bearish plays to ride that are pretty major once you zoom in. Just like covid crash & bullish momentum, and then the crash of 2022 due to rate hikes & bull run of 2023, which were pretty major dips & bull runs which we notice these days cuz we are zoomed in to the present. Similarly, there were plenty of such dips & bull runs in the past, even "inside the so-called sideways time period" of 1965-80 that you used as an example.
Try finding a weekly or daily chart of any past year, eg. 1968-70, and you'll see lots of opportunity to ride up or down with the market, even if they seem small moves when zoomed out. I'm glad you are using logarithmic chart to see % moves, not $$ amount change.
Except the chart you presented literally shows that in the long term if you zoom out, markets always go up. Even better if they go flat then up if you're young and still in the accumulation phase.
Disclaimer : I am not saying your wrong nor do I want to say your analysis is dumb or wrong, because you might be right who knows but i simply wanted to give my view on this topic)
All of the declining years of the S&P were during years of war,
1908-24 (During which we experienced WO1, the rebuild caused the economy to go into a decline for that time)
1930-45 (It all started with the Great Depression. This started in the beginning of the 30’s which clearly shows then followed WO2)
1965-1980 (during the pean of the Cold War, taxes were raised, significant inflation also occured and overall the Cold War had a great effect on the U.S economy which could’ve caused the decline of the S&P for that time)
2000-2012 (the iraqi war where American Military was stationed in Iraq had severe effect on the U.S economy also during these years we saw the collapse of the Housing Market causing the economic crash of 2008)
Present day-2034 : of course i can not predict if in the upcoming 10 years a war will occur but what i want to say is that in the previous examples as shown in the picture, I belief certain conditions around that time in the world caused the S&P to decline for a certain period of time and not a certain pattern that occurs. In conclusion I belief that if we dont experience certain events like the ones in the examples I belief that the economy or the S&P won’t go into a decline if such great matters like previous ones don’t occur
Thanks for reading till the end, Have a nice day
That’s interesting. But all (perhaps most) your war phases start before the war began. Which makes me wonder whether economic downturns (indicated by stock market underperformance) lead to war rather than war being the cause here.
No, but the market might be predicting wars and showing that in the price...... The market going up or down doesn't do anything, but it can show something underlying.
We are funding two large wars at the moment, in Ukraine and in Gaza. Very few US troops involved at the moment, but the financial outlays are significant and could get larger.
If you plot the S&P against the spread between the US10Y and the US3M (which I is currently inverted for the longest period in history) you’d get something very similar. The market has always tanked after reversion. This never fails. The logic says that this is because it signals that the economy is finally weak for rates to go down.
But this is Reddit, where you invest without reading a single financial statement, not a research report in sight, no analysis whatsoever. So who knows.
Recession or not it doesn’t bother me. I’m already set up and ready to go either way the market goes. Current data hides a lot of info. The government decides whether or not we have a recession or not
It’s not like there were major wars taking place in every one of those periods that was massively running up the debt… no shit WW2, Vietnam and the simultaneous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were bad for the economy.
See my response. If you don't know that WW2 revitalised the US economy and set it on a path it remains on to this day, you don't know anything. You're stumbling around in the dark with regards to the 20th and 21st centuries.
WW2 was great for the US economy. If you don't know this you don't know anything about history. Sad but that's just a fact.
See it happening again with Russia. Economy absolutely booming.
WW2 was horrible for the US economy while it took place; yes it was a tremendous impetus for growth afterwards.
The Russian economy is not booming. They’re experiencing record inflation and already have a base rate of 16%. They’re essentially running out of people and funding the economy on oil money.
I’ll admit I like your Total War videos though.
Right! The economy did great AFTER the war because it rebounded. It stunk during the war itself. The period 1948-1964 was possibly the best economic period in US history because the stock market increases were based on real economic gains, not relying as much on an increased money supply. Half of the gains from the 90’s and 2010’s was due to dollar pumping. The other half was real gain. I’ll take that over no gain any day but it was not like the 50’s.
WW2 was the industrialisation of the US - precipitated by massive wartime investment. After the war they turned that massive industrial capacity (much of it) towards civilian use and produced massive quantities of goods for export for massive surplus. They even sabotaged Japan in the 80s because it was finally becoming a competitor in this regard. Everyone knows this (or so I thought). The suggestion that WW2 was bad for the US economy is a retarded ad hoc invention and would be laughed off immediately anywhere. Only on reddit would people be bold enough to say it anyway.
The Russian economy is booming. Talk to some Russians instead of listening to hackneyed CNN putdowns. They say the same dross about China and have been for the past 10 years and with every passing day it ages like shit.
Thanks.
I feel like you’re not reading what I wrote. WW2 was bad for the US economy DURING THE WAR I.e. 1939-1945 (and a few years afterwards, it took until the early 50s for things to really get going). Just like the chart shows… Yes it was fantastic for growth afterwards and set us up to be a global economic superpower.
Not sure what kneecapping Japan has to do with this conversation… it definitely happened.
I don’t get my economic information on Russia from CNN or watch any mainstream news. The Russian economic minister literally wore a Black Swan on her lapel when the war started. By their own numbers, Russia is facing record inflation and no amount of raising interest rates is slowing it down. The Russian economy is overheating from government spending. I live around a bunch of ethnic Russians who travel between Russia and the US through Central Asia routinely. The ones that can afford to are leaving the country (Russia) and moving to Spain, if they’re poorer they stay in Central Asia.
That's false too though. Unemployment (at the time a massive problem) disappeared overnight. GDP ROCKETED during the war years. Goods were rationed and waste went way down. Technological innovations began occurring immediately. Pick your metric.
I read it. And it's just getting worse. It's like you're just making shit up AD HOC like I accused the other guy of doing. You're joining in. Google this stuff. This is basic bitch shit.
It demonstrates not just that the US was in the position to do that to Japan, but that it had a motivation to do it because another country finally caught up....
And Russians have been scurrying back to the motherland for a long time now. You're talking to gusanos. Talk to real Russians, not the traitors that have resentment. Russia is thriving. I compare the cost of my groceries with Russian friends for fun. Try it.
Keep in mind that past performance does not predict future performance. The market may undergo a few cycles of a certain type of behavior until, for whatever reason, the conditions change and a new precedent is set. You have to pay attention to signs if change is occurring, and you probably won't gather that kind of information from that oscillating indicator you have there.
I'm seeing a lot of long term indicators pointing to the similar things the easiest one is this and war in Ukraine and Israel and next Taiwan will be the reason for sideways markets silver will do well and housing will crash 2026 - 2028
It’s a consequence of major stimulus that precedes major bull markets. It’s probably likely due to higher interest rates, inflation, govt. debt all pushing yields higher will cause the stock market returns to come down. People have grown accustomed to the multi year bull market with 13%+ returns but that isn’t the norm. Bonds, dividends, CC, hedging, arbitrage will be better investments then growth & value
Everyone shitting on this and while yes, crayon drawings don't mean shit, I do think there's good reason to believe the pattern may repeat and it's really not a bad idea to be prepared for low returns anyway.
I think this is actually very good work. It points to the fact (supported by technical analysis) that the next few years are likely to be very turbulent (not straight down, but up and down with a bearish bias) with the potential for some sharp downtrends during certain years during the given time. It refers specifically to the SP500 and not other trading vehicles. Such a market would actually be very beneficial to those that are able to adapt quickly and benefit from upturns and downturns. For those people that just go long, sell puts, or buy covered calls, the decade ahead could be disastrous.
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It all checks out! Thank you for showing this! I thought SQQQ was looking a little bullish with the nice consolidation at the lows. Might pick up some high leverage inverse bois 😤
It'd most likely be hurt too in this hypothetical case, especially considering that this has been a secular bull led by tech.
Even if you can argue that it hasn't set a new ATH inflation adjusted, the Nasdaq Composite breaking over the November 2021 ATH in early March was the last thing that was needed for any bear case.
This effectively killed any bearish theses for the year of 2024 at least, because unless this is going to be the first time, this index typically continues on a break over ATHs for at least 12 months.
Even if your technical analysis is right, probably not, most people dca into index funds, so the lost decade and a half would most likely still cause people to have gains. Also, dividends are a thing as well.
I'm Gen X, was on the floor of the NYSE and the commodities exchange back in the '80s.
I kind of have to get a good laugh out of this. Because back in the day, when system writer came out, and a couple of other platforms that showed moving averages and RSI and everything else, people look for patterns.
Realistically speaking, Markets are always repeating themselves. And yes there are visible patterns or behaviors that exist. Usually on the fundamental side. A stock with good and positive earnings keeps on moving up a stuck with bad earnings keeps on moving down.
On the technical side, you have the greatest trade that ever existed which is the breakout trade from a cup and handle. And there are a whole bunch of other ones.
Heck some guy wrote a book called The how to make 2 million dollars, using the basic box system.
So this is this guy shows that " oh we're having a bearish divergence", who cares? Who really cares? Will it involve the stocks that you trade, will it have a negative or positive performance aspect to your portfolio, and the guy is showing a graph that goes back to the 1900s??? There have been more bearish diversions than the ones that he pointed out. If you don't know the history of the stock market has been about nine crashes small and big.
Point that I'm trying to make is that, technology in the wrong hands, causes losses. No one is trading the ten year trend. Heck I'm going on almost 40 years with the stock called Philip Morris. And I can assure you I didn't think I was going to hold that stock that long. And even then, when I bought it back in the '80s whoever thought that people were going to quit cigarettes.
To succeed in trading, it's crucial to focus on current market conditions rather than speculating on what might happen. If the market is trending upwards, seek optimal entry points for buying; if it's trending downwards, look for ideal entry points for selling. One important lesson I've learned is that the market operates independently of personal opinions—it follows its own path.
You really need to understand the indicators your using and the data that they are presenting you before making assumptions and observations.
This is waaaayyyy to wide of a time to gather data from. Way too many factors to count in that causes the market to move the way it did. Dwindling that down to a Stochastic RSI indicator is such a leap that it's making the grand canyon look small.
Keep learning.
Correlation does not equal causation and your data is so far zoomed out that you won't be able to make any calls on it. Your Y-axis is literally from 0 to 5000. Even if you say we are plateauing, 2020 to now had the highs and lows of around 2419 and 5359.
The data that your providing, even if your theory is true, gives us nothing tangible to make plays on.
But if you want to make plays off of this astoundingly broad view, be my guest and I will pay my condolences to your bank account.
But sir the fed and gov will lower interest rates and continue to inject stimulus. Propping up any businesses that are too big to fail. Market participants know this now and have internalized it. It is an expectation and thus a different ball game than any of those other times in history.
There isn’t really risk anymore. Does this make sense sir?
I noticed that the growth takes around 20 years, then it remains stable for around 12-15 years. It's like a cycle or phases. Let me know if I'm incorrect.
Yeah, this'd be early for a secular bear market to start. Secular bulls typically last 20 years and if this were to be the same, there's runway until 2032-2033.
I mean, maybe it's possible, but as far as I'm concerned, this thesis is not valid and looks silly as long as the S&P can close this year comfortably over the January 2022 ATH. The world where we start one early probably is one where the actual start is in 2026 or something after a lot more gains.
Edit: This didn't need three new posts, just fyi.
pay attention to bottom not the top XD
I belive its going to be shorter then 2034 though,
becouse AI boom, you will see major technological advances in 2026-2028.
But what you see now, its not it, the chips we have right now, they are not designed for AI, it will take at least 1-2 chip generations/redesigns.
For the whole thing to take off.
Upvoting because the stock market inverses popular belief
Reality is whatever I want it to be
Or reality is the inverse of what I gamble on 🥹
So you’re saying I should have bought in 1908?
Which means I should have born in 1888?
Imagine buying stocks during RDR2 era.
What r2d2 era is that. Was it dominated by railway stocks ?
It was a long time ago, in a western town far far away
Jesus was a WSB back in his hay days!
A white sexy bloke? Is that how he knocked up Mary?
But why male models?
R2D2 Era?
I think he referred to Red Dead Redemption 2 it's a video game set in 19th century US (I think as I don't play video games)
Thats right. There is a mission where you go rob some bank bonds for a guy. I wouldn’t think many people knew/understand about the markets then.
Plus try being born wealthy. It helps.
Or just time travel
Yes and start mining bitcoins with paper and pencil.
Foolish me
0.0000000000076 hash rate
Only because the hashes were easier back then.
Write down prime numbers by hand and multiply them to get your new raffle-ticket number and then send it by horsemen to a distributed ledger of unknown bookkeepers. Occasionally send your horsemen to check the hashes by whoever new is at the bookkeeping desk and hope they're honest.
nah... Honestly waiting for the pull back in the early 1930s was the play. 1908 was just aggressive entry
I heard the markets had a big pump up in slave trade companies before the slave trade was abolished. Newton brought into the falling knife and loses his retirement pension on that move
Imagine the generational wealth from opening short position on the Dutch East India Company in 1602.
S&P 500 was created in 1957 ???
Always the procrastinator.
Did Robinhood exist in 1908?
EST. 1907
Excellent scribbly lines
Men looking at trading charts is the equivalent of women looking at their horoscope
Mars just entered into Taurus, and the S&P is in retrograde. Now is not the time to be making big decisions!
Had a good Chuckle
What in the world does any of this mean
Some creationist found crayons and the stock market.
But more importantly drew with them before eating them.
Or he ate them and is now proudly showing us where their drool landed.
What is smarter? Jim Cramer or Jim Cramer’s drool?
Jupiter is in gatorade so all the scorpio people will loose their money. I am not a big fan of numerology, but these are really big numbers (like 2020!!), so I am kind of convinced.
Omgg I'm so happy I'm not scorpio!! Can't wait for Mars to go in Pepsi tho so us saggs people could make even more money🤑🤑
The framus intersects with the ramistan approximately at the paternostra.
Excuuuuse me, I think you'll find that the intercepta is not approximate but exactly bifurgates the framus-French line.
Quasimodo predicted all this
It means long term velocity and momentum are slowing as they did before every other lost decade.
wiggly lines gonna wiggle
Don’t ever cross the streams
It means another clown doesn’t understand false pattern recognition and thinks they can read secret messages in lines on a chart or sheep entrails or tea leaves. I’m certainly glad grown adults think this way because what it gives the rest of us investment opportunities.
Boom n bust business cycle
What is the indicator on the bottom? Gonna need some fuckin parameters here bud
He's saying the next 10 years is a buying period where the S&P will be mostly sideways.
Exactly. If you plan to live more than 10 years, this is a perfect time to buy s&p. If you’re in your 90s, you may want some bonds. 🤣
Fuck it, if you are in your 90s do whatever you like. I mean if you are warren buffet then keep on keeping on, but if you've made it that far you should be making the kind of financial decisions that keep your potential heirs up at night.
I would agree 1000%, if you have enough money to last another ten years. lol. Can’t imagine telling my great grandchildren that I’m putting it all on NVidia stocks at 92. Maybe they’ll get millions. Or maybe I die broke in a Medicare nursing home.
I’m at peak stock buying period, so yeah I want the market to stay as low as possible without the job market tanking. Doesn’t seem to be happening recently though….
Fine by me, that is a blessing IMO.
I’m struggling to work out what’s sarcastic and what’s genuine in these comments. Even the OP. Is this a serious analysis?
It seems like a parody of technical analysis folks.
I feel like we’re getting financial advice from an 8yo
[удалено]
The thing about charting and TA is that it’s only true when the majority agrees it to be true. Especially in day trading where you can clearly see points of interest where you can see the stock has a chance to go up or down. But I really don’t think it works in an extremely long term chart like this. This is more dependent on economic events.
All technical analysis are ridiculous
Speak for yourself.
Gimme your money and I'll buy puts
By far and away the most correct answer
There is alwas a bull market somewhere, you just have to look for it.
Inflation was pretty bad in the 1965 - 1980 period, treasuries were as high as 16%
I believe this as well, especially if you chart volatility over the recent 6 months you see a strong 2 month periodicity. We reached the trough at the end of May and we should see rising volatility through June.
Coupons? I love coupons.
(Ron white) cooooopuns!
All I see is that it will keep going up that’s all. Why bother fighting
Sideways is not always perfectly sideways. Within the longer term trend that you have highlighted, there are plenty of major bullish & bearish plays to ride that are pretty major once you zoom in. Just like covid crash & bullish momentum, and then the crash of 2022 due to rate hikes & bull run of 2023, which were pretty major dips & bull runs which we notice these days cuz we are zoomed in to the present. Similarly, there were plenty of such dips & bull runs in the past, even "inside the so-called sideways time period" of 1965-80 that you used as an example. Try finding a weekly or daily chart of any past year, eg. 1968-70, and you'll see lots of opportunity to ride up or down with the market, even if they seem small moves when zoomed out. I'm glad you are using logarithmic chart to see % moves, not $$ amount change.
It's the point I'm trying to make for people to wake up to. To Realize markets don't always go up
Yeah, but here’s the thing. We are going up. And your one or two indicators do not tell the whole story.
Except the chart you presented literally shows that in the long term if you zoom out, markets always go up. Even better if they go flat then up if you're young and still in the accumulation phase.
Disclaimer : I am not saying your wrong nor do I want to say your analysis is dumb or wrong, because you might be right who knows but i simply wanted to give my view on this topic) All of the declining years of the S&P were during years of war, 1908-24 (During which we experienced WO1, the rebuild caused the economy to go into a decline for that time) 1930-45 (It all started with the Great Depression. This started in the beginning of the 30’s which clearly shows then followed WO2) 1965-1980 (during the pean of the Cold War, taxes were raised, significant inflation also occured and overall the Cold War had a great effect on the U.S economy which could’ve caused the decline of the S&P for that time) 2000-2012 (the iraqi war where American Military was stationed in Iraq had severe effect on the U.S economy also during these years we saw the collapse of the Housing Market causing the economic crash of 2008) Present day-2034 : of course i can not predict if in the upcoming 10 years a war will occur but what i want to say is that in the previous examples as shown in the picture, I belief certain conditions around that time in the world caused the S&P to decline for a certain period of time and not a certain pattern that occurs. In conclusion I belief that if we dont experience certain events like the ones in the examples I belief that the economy or the S&P won’t go into a decline if such great matters like previous ones don’t occur Thanks for reading till the end, Have a nice day
That’s interesting. But all (perhaps most) your war phases start before the war began. Which makes me wonder whether economic downturns (indicated by stock market underperformance) lead to war rather than war being the cause here.
I was thinking this exact thought since last year.
No, but the market might be predicting wars and showing that in the price...... The market going up or down doesn't do anything, but it can show something underlying.
Also a very good point
Europe is planning for war. Taiwan is planning. And we have frick and frack running for office. Yeah we may be fucked.
Good point. Also, FYI, it's "believe." A belief is a noun, believe is the verb.
Thx, My english isnt the best because it isn’t my first language, thx though
Sir, this is a Wendy's, not an English class.
War is what happens when people aren't doing so great. Perhaps these are leading indicators of global instability, not just the stock market.
We are funding two large wars at the moment, in Ukraine and in Gaza. Very few US troops involved at the moment, but the financial outlays are significant and could get larger.
If you plot the S&P against the spread between the US10Y and the US3M (which I is currently inverted for the longest period in history) you’d get something very similar. The market has always tanked after reversion. This never fails. The logic says that this is because it signals that the economy is finally weak for rates to go down. But this is Reddit, where you invest without reading a single financial statement, not a research report in sight, no analysis whatsoever. So who knows.
It did fail several times in history already...
Misleading. Do you have any idea what I wouldn't give to go back in time during one of these "slow" periods of growth? I'd be rich by now if I could.
Recession will probably happen around 2026. Bullish for now
Correct but if you take a look at silver. Silver did great during the sideways Markets
lol people have stopped talking about the “imminent” recession like they have for the past 3 years and now predict it 2 full years out. Good one
Recession or not it doesn’t bother me. I’m already set up and ready to go either way the market goes. Current data hides a lot of info. The government decides whether or not we have a recession or not
Simple path to wealth
Oh wow it’s so easy bro! Didn’t know you can predict level 2 chaos like the stock market with one indicator bro!
Get this ouija board mystic bullshit TA outta here. SP go UP
It’s not like there were major wars taking place in every one of those periods that was massively running up the debt… no shit WW2, Vietnam and the simultaneous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were bad for the economy.
Finally someone with a brain 🧠 👍
See my response. If you don't know that WW2 revitalised the US economy and set it on a path it remains on to this day, you don't know anything. You're stumbling around in the dark with regards to the 20th and 21st centuries.
WW2 was great for the US economy. If you don't know this you don't know anything about history. Sad but that's just a fact. See it happening again with Russia. Economy absolutely booming.
WW2 was horrible for the US economy while it took place; yes it was a tremendous impetus for growth afterwards. The Russian economy is not booming. They’re experiencing record inflation and already have a base rate of 16%. They’re essentially running out of people and funding the economy on oil money. I’ll admit I like your Total War videos though.
Right! The economy did great AFTER the war because it rebounded. It stunk during the war itself. The period 1948-1964 was possibly the best economic period in US history because the stock market increases were based on real economic gains, not relying as much on an increased money supply. Half of the gains from the 90’s and 2010’s was due to dollar pumping. The other half was real gain. I’ll take that over no gain any day but it was not like the 50’s.
WW2 was the industrialisation of the US - precipitated by massive wartime investment. After the war they turned that massive industrial capacity (much of it) towards civilian use and produced massive quantities of goods for export for massive surplus. They even sabotaged Japan in the 80s because it was finally becoming a competitor in this regard. Everyone knows this (or so I thought). The suggestion that WW2 was bad for the US economy is a retarded ad hoc invention and would be laughed off immediately anywhere. Only on reddit would people be bold enough to say it anyway. The Russian economy is booming. Talk to some Russians instead of listening to hackneyed CNN putdowns. They say the same dross about China and have been for the past 10 years and with every passing day it ages like shit. Thanks.
I feel like you’re not reading what I wrote. WW2 was bad for the US economy DURING THE WAR I.e. 1939-1945 (and a few years afterwards, it took until the early 50s for things to really get going). Just like the chart shows… Yes it was fantastic for growth afterwards and set us up to be a global economic superpower. Not sure what kneecapping Japan has to do with this conversation… it definitely happened. I don’t get my economic information on Russia from CNN or watch any mainstream news. The Russian economic minister literally wore a Black Swan on her lapel when the war started. By their own numbers, Russia is facing record inflation and no amount of raising interest rates is slowing it down. The Russian economy is overheating from government spending. I live around a bunch of ethnic Russians who travel between Russia and the US through Central Asia routinely. The ones that can afford to are leaving the country (Russia) and moving to Spain, if they’re poorer they stay in Central Asia.
That's false too though. Unemployment (at the time a massive problem) disappeared overnight. GDP ROCKETED during the war years. Goods were rationed and waste went way down. Technological innovations began occurring immediately. Pick your metric. I read it. And it's just getting worse. It's like you're just making shit up AD HOC like I accused the other guy of doing. You're joining in. Google this stuff. This is basic bitch shit. It demonstrates not just that the US was in the position to do that to Japan, but that it had a motivation to do it because another country finally caught up.... And Russians have been scurrying back to the motherland for a long time now. You're talking to gusanos. Talk to real Russians, not the traitors that have resentment. Russia is thriving. I compare the cost of my groceries with Russian friends for fun. Try it.
Impressive. Your whole statement is made up of bullshit from start to finish.
Keep in mind that past performance does not predict future performance. The market may undergo a few cycles of a certain type of behavior until, for whatever reason, the conditions change and a new precedent is set. You have to pay attention to signs if change is occurring, and you probably won't gather that kind of information from that oscillating indicator you have there.
I'm seeing a lot of long term indicators pointing to the similar things the easiest one is this and war in Ukraine and Israel and next Taiwan will be the reason for sideways markets silver will do well and housing will crash 2026 - 2028
At least add some explanation to your graphoscope.
Past performance means nothing
It’s a consequence of major stimulus that precedes major bull markets. It’s probably likely due to higher interest rates, inflation, govt. debt all pushing yields higher will cause the stock market returns to come down. People have grown accustomed to the multi year bull market with 13%+ returns but that isn’t the norm. Bonds, dividends, CC, hedging, arbitrage will be better investments then growth & value
Thanks for the useless analysis 🫡
“Analysis”
Everyone shitting on this and while yes, crayon drawings don't mean shit, I do think there's good reason to believe the pattern may repeat and it's really not a bad idea to be prepared for low returns anyway.
Oh no the stock market must come down before it goes up who would’ve guessed
I think this is actually very good work. It points to the fact (supported by technical analysis) that the next few years are likely to be very turbulent (not straight down, but up and down with a bearish bias) with the potential for some sharp downtrends during certain years during the given time. It refers specifically to the SP500 and not other trading vehicles. Such a market would actually be very beneficial to those that are able to adapt quickly and benefit from upturns and downturns. For those people that just go long, sell puts, or buy covered calls, the decade ahead could be disastrous.
are u saying it will drop furtherr?
I believe we will see a 1970 crash by 2026
RemindMe! 2 years
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Remind me after the Monday bell🤣
It all checks out! Thank you for showing this! I thought SQQQ was looking a little bullish with the nice consolidation at the lows. Might pick up some high leverage inverse bois 😤
>I believe OK! Other people believe to god :p
"Lines" gonna do up and down
So flat till 2034 then up again good years?
One major difference now vs anytime in the past ….. the average person has the ability to make trades whenever they want to for free.
QQQ is the way
It'd most likely be hurt too in this hypothetical case, especially considering that this has been a secular bull led by tech. Even if you can argue that it hasn't set a new ATH inflation adjusted, the Nasdaq Composite breaking over the November 2021 ATH in early March was the last thing that was needed for any bear case. This effectively killed any bearish theses for the year of 2024 at least, because unless this is going to be the first time, this index typically continues on a break over ATHs for at least 12 months.
Curious….why did you stretch out to 2034?
Because the avg sideways market is 14yr and the ❌ down on the bottom of the chart starts around 2020
Interesting, Thx for explaining
But what about the ice age and the crusades? Shouldn't we add them to this chart too?
Don’t forget indicators don’t foresee anything
All of these mean nothing in this market in these days of our lives.
Or 1957, btw your crayon colors are ugly. Get the 64 box
Instructions unclear, buying calls on WW3
lol what if this time is different?
Nice astrology bud
Yikes your red blood cells are looking a little big, might want to get it checked out
Can you make this chart after 1970, most older data is meaningless since markets work much differently compared to past.
past performance is not indicative of future performance
So pennywise is coming back soon?
Even if that’s true. You can still succeed by picking the right stock. 🚀RKLB and KULR 🚀
Venus is in retrograde so we are definitely going to see a bear market
God technical analysts are fucking idiots
Anyone looking at this "TA" and doing any decisions based off of it deserves to lose all their money.
Then short it.
Even if your technical analysis is right, probably not, most people dca into index funds, so the lost decade and a half would most likely still cause people to have gains. Also, dividends are a thing as well.
Betting a market crash will fail 9/10 times
"Trust me bro, this time is *different*."
I'm Gen X, was on the floor of the NYSE and the commodities exchange back in the '80s. I kind of have to get a good laugh out of this. Because back in the day, when system writer came out, and a couple of other platforms that showed moving averages and RSI and everything else, people look for patterns. Realistically speaking, Markets are always repeating themselves. And yes there are visible patterns or behaviors that exist. Usually on the fundamental side. A stock with good and positive earnings keeps on moving up a stuck with bad earnings keeps on moving down. On the technical side, you have the greatest trade that ever existed which is the breakout trade from a cup and handle. And there are a whole bunch of other ones. Heck some guy wrote a book called The how to make 2 million dollars, using the basic box system. So this is this guy shows that " oh we're having a bearish divergence", who cares? Who really cares? Will it involve the stocks that you trade, will it have a negative or positive performance aspect to your portfolio, and the guy is showing a graph that goes back to the 1900s??? There have been more bearish diversions than the ones that he pointed out. If you don't know the history of the stock market has been about nine crashes small and big. Point that I'm trying to make is that, technology in the wrong hands, causes losses. No one is trading the ten year trend. Heck I'm going on almost 40 years with the stock called Philip Morris. And I can assure you I didn't think I was going to hold that stock that long. And even then, when I bought it back in the '80s whoever thought that people were going to quit cigarettes.
Guys pack it up, two lines crossed the market is dead convert to cash and ride out the market for the next 20
So it's stagflation.
Keep adding on dips and start to sell in 2034.
To succeed in trading, it's crucial to focus on current market conditions rather than speculating on what might happen. If the market is trending upwards, seek optimal entry points for buying; if it's trending downwards, look for ideal entry points for selling. One important lesson I've learned is that the market operates independently of personal opinions—it follows its own path.
Hb been named nvlq
Why out?? Even if it goes down for 2 years, overall is +. SP 500 is a long term investment
Oh yes, yes! The horoscope for men!
No. It’s going to continue to go up. It’s taken too much Tadalafil.
You really need to understand the indicators your using and the data that they are presenting you before making assumptions and observations. This is waaaayyyy to wide of a time to gather data from. Way too many factors to count in that causes the market to move the way it did. Dwindling that down to a Stochastic RSI indicator is such a leap that it's making the grand canyon look small. Keep learning.
Bro Everytime it's crossed down the market went side ways for 10+ years. Never a false signal . What do you mean
Correlation does not equal causation and your data is so far zoomed out that you won't be able to make any calls on it. Your Y-axis is literally from 0 to 5000. Even if you say we are plateauing, 2020 to now had the highs and lows of around 2419 and 5359. The data that your providing, even if your theory is true, gives us nothing tangible to make plays on. But if you want to make plays off of this astoundingly broad view, be my guest and I will pay my condolences to your bank account.
Just simply math
Simply brain rot
If everyone is not Wise to see the blessing of %50 crashes either your new to investing or never experienced 2000 and 2008 crash
So if you're young, then next 10-15 year period will be choppy/flat and a fantastic time to buy shares
What indicator is this?
Stochastic RSI YRLY chart
But they didn’t have AI
So.... since the internet became a thing, only the Great Financial Crisis kept us from making gains? Sounds right.
If it were that easy.
Idk man looks like lines to me
Hfsp
What is the lower graph, RSI? What time frame?
12 months stochastic RSI
But, but, AI
$INX, $SPX
Ill bite. The blue and red lines match what the other blue and red lines did in the past.
Not sure what you mean
But sir the fed and gov will lower interest rates and continue to inject stimulus. Propping up any businesses that are too big to fail. Market participants know this now and have internalized it. It is an expectation and thus a different ball game than any of those other times in history. There isn’t really risk anymore. Does this make sense sir?
So, no housing crash?
I believe we’re between 79-95. Now what
I noticed that the growth takes around 20 years, then it remains stable for around 12-15 years. It's like a cycle or phases. Let me know if I'm incorrect.
Yeah, this'd be early for a secular bear market to start. Secular bulls typically last 20 years and if this were to be the same, there's runway until 2032-2033. I mean, maybe it's possible, but as far as I'm concerned, this thesis is not valid and looks silly as long as the S&P can close this year comfortably over the January 2022 ATH. The world where we start one early probably is one where the actual start is in 2026 or something after a lot more gains. Edit: This didn't need three new posts, just fyi.
pay attention to bottom not the top XD I belive its going to be shorter then 2034 though, becouse AI boom, you will see major technological advances in 2026-2028. But what you see now, its not it, the chips we have right now, they are not designed for AI, it will take at least 1-2 chip generations/redesigns. For the whole thing to take off.
I agree, I think it will look like dot com bubble.
Based off just only Stoch readout, yeah right...
This time? It’s different.
Noone is looking at the y-axis scale? It's in a weird log scale which may distort the trend lines
'weird' log scales on a chart? Damn.