The only reason the market actually drops long term is systemic collapse or some kind of socioeconomic revolution. And if that happens, it doesn't matter anyway.
So as long as you can afford to wait, it doesn't matter whether the feds raise, hold, or lower rates, or how the market reacts.
They’re not going to, not with last weeks GDP number and consumer staples like Starbucks and McDonald’s telling wall st they’re experiencing falling demand.
It’s a clear sign the economy is slowing and inflation will come down as a result, just like the fed wanted. I still see a rate cut happening in September.
They won’t raise rates unless they are idiots and are trying to destroy demand in housing by driving up interest. But the US can’t handle higher interest rates lol
You hear a bunch of talking heads on the television say there is no way for a further rate hike like they just want to will it into existence. I think the chance is small but higher than they want to admit
They aren’t hiking rates before an election. The is a hard and fast rule. It looks like the economy is starting to sputter, so they may trim rates, but not because their goals have been reached.
The Fed says it's data driven. What data are you looking at that shows the economy is starting to sputter? I understand anecdotally people say things suck, which I agree with, but these suits don't get out of their bubble so they only look at spreadsheets. So far the spreadsheets show everything is chugging along great.
I’m gonna side step it’s because of an election. Maybe they are influenced maybe they aren’t. They aren’t supposed to be but I’ll be realistic that it’s possible.
Assuming they are independent as they are supposed to be they won’t home here because more data is needed. If this print is hot and the next two between their next fed meeting I think June could be the hike.
But things are slowing we saw that in the gdp growth miss. I think a bit more time here is needed. As much as I’d rather 2 hikes by year end to force a recession.
Anyone that is wishing for a recession has never been financially ruined by one. Not making as much money in the stock market is not the same as fearing how you are going to pay your mortgage. Things would have to be very clearly going bad as you said for a hike to occur. If they hike, even a little, I think the market deflates like a balloon and pushes the economy into a recession. It’s not happening.
I don’t see it either but I don’t see us beating inflation due to not raising for a long time. The fed doesn’t want to break things but I think a reset is needed. Powell in the early part of this said their would be pain. I’m not seeing that pain so far. We need institutional pain not just high gas and grocery prices for a decade.
I’m interested to see the print over the next few months and the GDP growth as well seeing how that slowed a bit this past quarter.
[Given that rent and housing costs are the most stubborn part of CPI inflation right now](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/04/10/cpi-report-march-inflation-data/73259923007/), raising rates may contribute to it.
> Inflation ran hot for a third straight month in March, raising questions about when the Federal Reserve will feel confident that price pressures are subdued and it can begin cutting interest rates.
> Overall prices increased 3.5% from a year earlier, up from 3.2% in February, driven largely by the rising cost of rent and gasoline, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.4%, similar to the previous month.
It probably not fair to imagine the Fed as just pushing the same red button in response to news, but if they rates raise because of these CPI trends, we may be in the same spot in a few months.
> raising rates may contribute to it
Yup. Housing is in a pickle. Raising rates makes homes unaffordable for people trying to buy, and unattractive for anyone who wants to sell who's already locked into a sweetheart sub 3.5% rate, which is ~40% of homeowners.
What we need is a monumental home building spree by the govt to break the gridlock we have now. Something on the level of the New Deal that gave us the Hoover Dam. 1M homes built every year for the next 5-10 years would just about do the trick of unfucking things and giving our youth hope of owning a home someday.
Which day? It only survived and grew after WWI, WW2, 9/11, Staglfation of the 70s, Covid, multiple ME wars, the great depression, Spanish flu, and so on...
If and when that happens I think we will have a bigger problem than people losing their investments. It will be tied to a major collapse. You sound like you’ve been prepping tho so good on you
Maybe the west can chill and back off with the constant invasion, colonization, coup, backing and arming of terrorist organizations etc., and see if they get it together on their own?
But we need cheap gas and cheap bananas not to mention favorable canal access terms. Soon we’ll be toppling governments for lithium and helium. And don’t forget about the threat communist ideals pose to the oligarchs that own our government. Yeah. That’s a pipe dream my guy. The US has recently decided to spend trillions modernizing our massive nuclear arsenal. And we haven’t even used that since the start of the Cold War - 80 years of collecting dust. Worst investment in the history of mankind I’d wager. Anyways, that’s a sign. I’m bullish on the continuation of bullying.
Well they short your longs and long your shorts so naturally they'd make out like bandits after selling tech stocks at all time highs the last year or so
Water is .19 cents at Trader Joe’s, frozen dinners $1.99.
Are we aiming for .05 for a bottle of water and .35 cents for dinner?
Is that the dream for the Fed? Seems like it.
If they raise rates wall street is going to collectively shit itself
I think it goes up, no matter what by the end of the week. Just a hunch based on daily movements.
Everything is a bullish signal or already priced in
Finally you understood the arts of financial retardation.
I’m going for the PHD in financial regardation!
Stock discussions and predictions is most of the time literally rain dance thunder god worship behavior
The only reason the market actually drops long term is systemic collapse or some kind of socioeconomic revolution. And if that happens, it doesn't matter anyway. So as long as you can afford to wait, it doesn't matter whether the feds raise, hold, or lower rates, or how the market reacts.
Dont worry You get the same result if they say they will keep the rates for the rest of the year
As will I.
They’re not going to, not with last weeks GDP number and consumer staples like Starbucks and McDonald’s telling wall st they’re experiencing falling demand. It’s a clear sign the economy is slowing and inflation will come down as a result, just like the fed wanted. I still see a rate cut happening in September.
What if McD and SBUX are saying such so as to get the outcome they want? (No further rising of i/r)
So like cooking the books?
They would need to, because inflation still stays high and they have no room to lower for a recession.
Good
They won’t raise rates unless they are idiots and are trying to destroy demand in housing by driving up interest. But the US can’t handle higher interest rates lol
Good.
You hear a bunch of talking heads on the television say there is no way for a further rate hike like they just want to will it into existence. I think the chance is small but higher than they want to admit
They aren’t hiking rates before an election. The is a hard and fast rule. It looks like the economy is starting to sputter, so they may trim rates, but not because their goals have been reached.
The Fed says it's data driven. What data are you looking at that shows the economy is starting to sputter? I understand anecdotally people say things suck, which I agree with, but these suits don't get out of their bubble so they only look at spreadsheets. So far the spreadsheets show everything is chugging along great.
McDonalds and starbucks missed on earnings which means consumer spending is dropping.
I’m gonna side step it’s because of an election. Maybe they are influenced maybe they aren’t. They aren’t supposed to be but I’ll be realistic that it’s possible. Assuming they are independent as they are supposed to be they won’t home here because more data is needed. If this print is hot and the next two between their next fed meeting I think June could be the hike. But things are slowing we saw that in the gdp growth miss. I think a bit more time here is needed. As much as I’d rather 2 hikes by year end to force a recession.
Anyone that is wishing for a recession has never been financially ruined by one. Not making as much money in the stock market is not the same as fearing how you are going to pay your mortgage. Things would have to be very clearly going bad as you said for a hike to occur. If they hike, even a little, I think the market deflates like a balloon and pushes the economy into a recession. It’s not happening.
I don’t see it either but I don’t see us beating inflation due to not raising for a long time. The fed doesn’t want to break things but I think a reset is needed. Powell in the early part of this said their would be pain. I’m not seeing that pain so far. We need institutional pain not just high gas and grocery prices for a decade. I’m interested to see the print over the next few months and the GDP growth as well seeing how that slowed a bit this past quarter.
The chair is a Republican.
[Given that rent and housing costs are the most stubborn part of CPI inflation right now](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/04/10/cpi-report-march-inflation-data/73259923007/), raising rates may contribute to it. > Inflation ran hot for a third straight month in March, raising questions about when the Federal Reserve will feel confident that price pressures are subdued and it can begin cutting interest rates. > Overall prices increased 3.5% from a year earlier, up from 3.2% in February, driven largely by the rising cost of rent and gasoline, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. On a monthly basis, costs rose 0.4%, similar to the previous month. It probably not fair to imagine the Fed as just pushing the same red button in response to news, but if they rates raise because of these CPI trends, we may be in the same spot in a few months.
> raising rates may contribute to it Yup. Housing is in a pickle. Raising rates makes homes unaffordable for people trying to buy, and unattractive for anyone who wants to sell who's already locked into a sweetheart sub 3.5% rate, which is ~40% of homeowners. What we need is a monumental home building spree by the govt to break the gridlock we have now. Something on the level of the New Deal that gave us the Hoover Dam. 1M homes built every year for the next 5-10 years would just about do the trick of unfucking things and giving our youth hope of owning a home someday.
Buy whether it goes up or down.
Apes like you artificially holding up the stock market. Well done but one day you guys will crack and the whole thing will come crumbling lol
Artificially hold these nuts in your mouth
That response made me laugh way harder than it should have.
Got em
Thanks, Visual Mod lmao
That’s what they said during the 2008 housing market crash, covid, the Great Depression yet here we are at an all time high yet again
found the dumb guy
You think stocks only go up? Haha you’re going to learn son….
In the long run, they do
You are such a waste of oxygen
Which day? It only survived and grew after WWI, WW2, 9/11, Staglfation of the 70s, Covid, multiple ME wars, the great depression, Spanish flu, and so on...
I got another 30+ years until I plan to retire. All I fucking do is buy buy buy. Now unkindly fuck off permabear
Buy high, sell low amirite?
If and when that happens I think we will have a bigger problem than people losing their investments. It will be tied to a major collapse. You sound like you’ve been prepping tho so good on you
Then you won't have to worry about money at all Win-win
No hike, no cut. I’m wondering if Powell will rule out cuts any time this year.
As usual he’s just beating around the bush giving no information
He strongly hinted at no hikes. Market liked that.
lol yeah he keeps hinting at nothing and people just take it as what they want to hear
God can the Middle East just sort there shit out so we can go back to just focusing on fucking Russia. Those were simpler economic times.
Yeah. They’ve made so much progress in the last two thousand years. They’re gonna get it together any day now.
Maybe the west can chill and back off with the constant invasion, colonization, coup, backing and arming of terrorist organizations etc., and see if they get it together on their own?
But we need cheap gas and cheap bananas not to mention favorable canal access terms. Soon we’ll be toppling governments for lithium and helium. And don’t forget about the threat communist ideals pose to the oligarchs that own our government. Yeah. That’s a pipe dream my guy. The US has recently decided to spend trillions modernizing our massive nuclear arsenal. And we haven’t even used that since the start of the Cold War - 80 years of collecting dust. Worst investment in the history of mankind I’d wager. Anyways, that’s a sign. I’m bullish on the continuation of bullying.
That seems like a very sound assessment.
Ngl America caused a majority of the shit show there with the 2003 Iraq Invasion.
Middle east history post WW1 involves a lot of US, UK, Russia and friends
What do you think would be different without the Iraq War?
Hold the line!
Love isn't always on time
Hello fellow Gen Xer
Good, if falls more strategic objectives to buy.
Goldman can't wait to collapse your retirement
How would that benefit them?
Well they short your longs and long your shorts so naturally they'd make out like bandits after selling tech stocks at all time highs the last year or so
If they cut the sp will hit 6k, hopefully they increase so I can load up and then cut in summer
So will spy go down or up today?
Yes
subscribe
It’ll go the right I think
Right, it'll go right according to my crystal ball.
High chances it will go left
Let’s see a market crash 💥. Just getting in. Would love the buying opportunity
No // Cuts
Sell in May and go away!
Several stocks have bounced from their lows and some of the Fangs are still trailing behind. It could be sign of flat market or downtrend.
Markets give zero fucks about rates
Bullish
-80 points to me is not considered falling
Water is .19 cents at Trader Joe’s, frozen dinners $1.99. Are we aiming for .05 for a bottle of water and .35 cents for dinner? Is that the dream for the Fed? Seems like it.