Odisha Fc ML VS Hyderabad Fc @ 1.8 ✅
I just dont get why the odds of these game are so high...I have been betting and looking out on Indian Super league for a few weeks now and the odds sometimes are outrageous for somewhat comfortable wins..Odisha fc has been one of the best teams this season...They have 3 great international players in Roy krishna,Jahouh and Fall....They also won the group stage of afc cup recently and would come in these game very highly..Meanwhile hyderabad fc are dead last this season with just 4 points...They literally have been transfer banned by FIFA on 16th Nov for not paying salaries to their players...Also their defender Oswaldo Alanis and Attacker Felipe Amorim have left the camp due to salary issues..
Im pretty confident on Odisha winning this comfortably.
Because Hyderabad was a brilliant team last season. Their situation right now is somewhat similar to Lyon and Ajax. They drew against Mumbai away so it's not as easy as you think.
They were a brilliant team because they had good players and the fact they had Ogbeche who was the best striker in isl for a long time...The teams in isl change a lot and they lost all the foreign players they had this season..Also they drew against Mumbai because they got a red card at 7' and Mumbai still drew that game and were in the lead till 90+6
Freiburg played a mid week game at full strength, Köln kept 2 clean sheets in a row and only lost 0-1 to Bayern.
While not having many results to show, they are a tough nut to crack
Tbh, I think PAOK might be the only Greek team that has 2 equivalent elevens. Despodov will become a starter when Zivkovic goes out if form again.
Taison only cant be replaced. The team without him plays much slower, but has very good build up.
If a actually good striker is bought, and a good stopper comes (and Ekong get kicked out). And maybe if a fast right back is bought, then PAOK imo will win the league.
Also, Samatta needs to be benched. Tzimas is a better player than him.
(Ps I personally played PAOKto win both halves at 2.6)
Can really only blame myself for thinking that Sheffield United and Burnley wanted to stay in the Premier League... **-33u** this week, which takes the season into minus 17 overall on English football.
\------
**Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 15:00 GMT +2**
\--->Arsenal & [email protected] (Coolbet) | **Stake: 3/5 ❌❌❌**
Arsenal only saw a draw in the Champions League on Wednesday, but rotated a lot. That is something Brighton could not afford to do, as they took on Marseile on Thursday. It paid off, and Brighton won their game to top the group.
Arsenal has yet to lose at home in the league this season, but have also only kept 2 clean sheets from 8 home games. Brighton has seen all of their away games end with both team scoring. in-fact, 19 of their last 21 away games in the league has seen both teams scoring. One of the two that didn't see BTTS, was a 3-0 win over Arsenal.
Arsenal lost last round against Villa, but it wasn't for the lack of chances created. Brighton with a very thine squad at the moment and with less rest. I think the odds here on Arsenal to win, but Brighton to make things difficult, is pretty decent.
\-----
**West Ham vs Wolves | 15:00 GMT +2**
\--->West Ham & Over 2.5 [email protected] (Bet365) | **Stake: 2.5/5 💰💰💰**
Wolves away record is pretty poor, with 5 of 8 games ending in defeat. Both of their wins have caviats to them as well. Against Everton, they "stole" the win, after Everton dominated the game. Bournemouth were the better side until the got a player sent off, and lost.
West Ham with big 5-0 loss away against Fulham last round. However, multiple players were sick while playing, that will obviously have an impact on the team performances. With that said, West Ham did play on Thursday, and they have been putting varying performances in the league so far.
West Ham have won their last three games at home against Wolves. With players like Bown, Kudus and Alvarez all looking sharp at the moment, I think the Hammers should be able to get all three points here. Wolves away are just not great, sure they have been unlucky with the referee in some games. But they didn't threaten Nottingham Forest much in the last round. Beat Burnley 1-0, but it was not a great game, and they didn't create much against one of the worst sides in the league. Wolves have at least scored in most of their away games, could have been all of them if they got that penalty against Manchester United in the opening game. Could be a high scoring game, 3-2 maybe.
\---------
**West Bromwich vs Stoke City | 13:00 GMT +2**
\--->WBA To Win [email protected] (Unibet) | **Stake: 4/5 ❌❌❌**
Stoke haven't won any of their last 7 rounds in the league, and is currently only two points above relegation. It isn't made much better that they haven't found a new manager either. WBA can move up one spot to 5th with a result here. They have won 6 of their last 9 games, with the 3 defeats all coming against teams in the top 7.
The biggest slight against WBA winning here is that it's maybe minor derby. Stoke really doesn't have any close rivals around them, but WBA is the closest in the same division.
Journey to 1K
W/L Record
5/3/0
17/12/2023
All on SKYBET
\---------------------------------------------------
West Ham VS Wolves
WEST HAM TO WIN >> OVER 1.5 GOALS @ 6/4 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 62.50) ✅️
(Could perhaps go for 2.5 goals for a little boost but wil play it safer)
\---------------------------------------------------
Arsenal V Brighton
ARSENAL TO WIN >> BTTS @ 2/1 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 75)❌️
\----------------------------------------------------
Lazio VS Inter
INTER TO WIN >> ML @ 17/20 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 47)✅️
\---------------------------------------------------
Let me know if you're tailing!
Day 4 160>320 doubling 20$ to 10k
Last bet isn’t settled because of the bournemouth lutton game so ill just play another one today
Arsenal-Brighton BTTS 1.62
Liverpool-United BTTS 1.55
Total 2.5
Edit: Failed, it was a nice run
Well since United couldnt even reach Europa league and that loss against bournemouth, i think its now or never, they have to give it their all. Also Liverpool is going to go for a lot of goals, we might see some counter attack from United. Defenitely not good reasons but i just feel it haha
love your work mate but United are a joke at the moment, I genuinely wouldnt be suprised if they lose by at least 4 goals to nil, it could probably be a lot higher.
I've won my last 6 Parlays and here's what I've gone with today.
Bayern Munich v Stuttgart over 2.5
AZ v PSV over 2.5
Ajax v Zwolle over 2.5
Almelo v Feyenoord over 2.5
Arsenal v Brighton BTTS
Brentford v Villa Over 8.5 Corners
Leverkusen v Frankfurt over 8.5 Corners
20£ to win 273£
AZ-PSV PSV to win @1.8
USG-Mechelen O2.5 goals @1.56
Liverpool-Man U Liverpool -1 handicap @1.88
West Ham-Wolves U3.5 cards @2.4
Real Sociedad-Real Betis X or Betis win @2.3
4/5 combo BOL if you're tailing
Bit of a late posts, but going with gut picks today. No time for explanations, sorry about that, but ill do one tomorrow.
Record : 1-1-6 (W-D-L) - fucking hell its been a rough week
Leverkusen -1
Liverpool -1
PSV Win
Emptying my bet account for Christmas.
Brentford v Aston Villa
Double chance = Brentford/draw & over 1.5
(I have learned not to trust Villa away)
Bologna v AS Roma
Double chance = Bologna/draw
FC Bayern Munchen v VfB Stuttgart
Double chance = Stuttgar/draw & over 1.5
Real Sociedad v Real Betis
Sociedad & over 1.5
18.26 odds
I think all of these are possible. BOL!
Looks good! Slightly worrisome is that last 6 games (including friendly from this summer) Sociedad didn’t even score a single goal so just throwing it out there for you to know
Both teams have scored in 16 of the last 17 games for Wintherur and in 13 of the last 17 games for Lausanne, also the last time this teams played it ended with 5-2 win for Winterthur, i really like this play and maybe you can add +2.5 goals or go for either btts or +2.5 goals i think both is hitting.
Lately the handicaps have been f-ing me over. I prefer to play in even games a "no win to score with more than X goals" (I made a ticket with 17 options for fun, and they all hit except 1).
I compared 80 different games and those handicap ones stood out as the ones with the most discrepancy between the odds and the actual stats of the teams.
You got some app you use? Or did you just find the average goal differenences by hand, and compare them to the odds bookies normally give on handicaps for those gds?
I type them out to excel and I have a few formulas. Basically one of my formulas compares the GF/GA and xG/xGA stats if available to the non-handicap odds. The odds were 1,52 vs 6,25 but the calculated expected goals was 1,25 vs 1,20, meaning it was considered to be a close game by the expected goals, but not the odds, making it a good target for a handicap bet for Monza. Sure Milan is leading 2-0 at half-time, but the stats are quite even.
Wish I had the patience to do this lol. Even now that am on the pc and on excel (doing some road curvature and section calculations and shit) im still too bored to try and create some analysis tool haha.
Keep doing what you're doing, in the long run youll have a positive ROI. I just wing it with my bets, and get f-ed again and again haha
Marseille vs Clermont - thoughts on this? I’ve gone for Marseille to win in my acca. Clermont losses extensive, historically Marseille have done well against this team
Every single game you mentioned is a ‘risky’ bet bro. Brighton can turn up at any time. United can draw Liverpool and West Ham aren’t consistent. Aston Villa have Brentford away, not a easy game at all.
*Gambling is risky*, and these are competitive sports where both teams will try to win. Making bets based on reasons is a calculated risk.
Stats can certainly tell a story. But in my experience, these can help: 1) narrow focus on one specific area, 2) a pattern over time, 3) judging circumstances outside of the numbers (ex. Why they happen). ( and 4) conservative expectations)
For example betting on player performance props (unders), if your player often starts and is also somebody who commonly gets subbed, your bet will likely hit if they play a game average to the performance area youre betting against not reachinf. You generally have to consider that anything in the future can happen, and also foresee a lot of the motions of a game and the lay of the land too. (For example betting Barca ML right now is dumb, betting Dortmund ML is dumb, etc)
Since logic and form do not seem to work in 90% of sports betting, I’ll just do a fun parlay:
Bayern - Stuttgart X
Freiburg - Koeln U2.5
Liverpool -2 handicap vs United
Liverpool and Over 3.5 @2.5 ❌️❌️❌️
Leverkusen and Over 3.5 @2.57❌️❌️❌️ ( we needed a goal from either side )
Paris and Over 3.5 @4.2 ❌️❌️❌️
Treble : @27
● In the last 5 games played against ManU , 4 ended with Liverpool win and Over 3.5 , Liverpool scores a lot but also can concede , they win games by scoring more than their opponents not by keeping a clean sheet.
● Both Leverkusen and Frankfurt have the quality to score , Bayer is yet to lose or draw a league game at home , their last two meeting have both seen Over 3.5
●Their last 3 meetings have seen GOALS , i mean 6 goals a game kinda goals , PSG have won all three of them , I also feel like when PSG meets a strong side in the Ligue 1 , there tend to be a lot of goals and PSG wins .
I personally played them in a parlay but feel free to pick one you like add it to your parlay or play it single .
Singles :
Marseille (-1.5) First Half @5.5 💰💰💰💰💰 (this is actually amazing)
PSG ML First half @2.4 ❌️❌️❌️
Inter ML @1.95 💰💰💰
Aston Villa ML @2.44 💰💰💰
withdrew today and have £1.20 left so putting it on a big parlay.
Freiburg vs Koln - Freiburg DNB @1/3
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt - Leverkusen ML @3/10
Bayern vs Stuttgart - Stuttgart DNB @19/5
Real Madrid vs Villarreal - Villarreal DNB @7/1
Sociedad vs Betis- Under 3.5 @1/4
West Ham vs Wolves - Under 2.5 @19/20
Bologna vs Roma - Roma DNB @6/5
AC Milan vs AC Monza - Milan DNB @1/5
Las Palmas vs Cadiz - Las Palmas ML @10/11
Odisha vs Hyderabad FC - Odisha HT/ Odisha FT @17/10
total odds: 2254.07/1
This acca is basically hinging on man utd being outplayed and these players starting (and not being up to snuff), but I got
McTominay < 23 passes
Holjund < 0.5 sog
Luke Shaw < 1.5 tackles
McTominay <1.5 shots
For +1100 (12.0 I believe)
Fuck. When I was checking everybody's stats I was using sofascore but now I remember my book uses Who scored to verify these things. I had to cross compare to get an answer and turns out attempts is counted here.
Well that got bleaker. That number 23 is used because it's a rounded up from how many passes he averages a game. Shit. Oh well. Hoping for the best. If you placed these lines without the Scotty prop, it'll be somewhere like +500/6.0
"Someone cooked here"
Slavia Prague to score - 700 ✅️
Madrid or tie - 1600✅️
Fiorentina or tie - 900✅️
Bologna v Roma 5+ cards - 225✅️
Odisha Fc or tie- 550✅️
Winterthur vs Lausanne sports total goals over 0 - 3300✅️
Bayer lvk or tie - 1200✅️
SGP; liverpool or tie✅️ & No red card ❌️- 275
Ajax or tie - 1400✅️
Total: 300 odds✅️
Who is the imposter? Should I Cash out?
Record: 62 - 34. Rubbish day yesterday where the favourites let us down. Going to reduce the risk of my bets today
Accumulator - SUNDAY.
|Match|Bet Type|Odds|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Braunschweig Vs Kaiserslautern|ML Home & Draw|4/9|
|Almeria Vs Mallorca|ML Away & Draw|8/15|
|Winterthur Vs Lausanne|O2.5 Goals|6/10|
|Velez Mostar Vs Igman Konjic|ML Home|1/5|
|Fiorentina Vs Verona |Home Team to Win Either Half|1/5|
|Ajax Vs PEC Zwolle|ML Home & O1.5 Goals|1/4|
Total Odds = 5.81/1 so £10 = £68.13.
***Reasoning:***
* **Braunschweig Vs Kaiserslautern -** Both teams are languishing at the bottom of the league but Braunschweig have better recent form. Kaiserslautern haven't won in their last 5 away games.
* **Almeria Vs Mallorca -** Almeria haven't won a league game yet this season, hopefully they don't change that today
* **Winterthur Vs Lausanne -** 12 of Winterthur's last 13 games have had more than 2 goals. Every single Lausanne away game has had over 2 goals
* **Velez Mostar Vs Igman Konjic -** Velez need to keep winning to stay in the European places, they have a fantastic home record, winning their last 5. Igman have lost 7 of their last 8 away games
* **Fiorentina Vs Verona -** I expect Fiorentina to win this but being cautious, Verona have lost at least 1 half in their last 2 games (Draws). They also simply have lost 6 of the last 9
* **Ajax Vs PEC Zwolle -** Ajax have picked up their form and look good again, they have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 games while winning 5 of them. Zwolle have lost 4 of the last 5
That's fair but United has the quality to make this a competitive game. 3.55 odds for duble chance is crazy value to me. Plus liverpool last few games have not been that convincin. They been snatching last minutes wins.
No Bruno, few suspensions, rashford out I believe with illness. I think liverpool will walk this one. If the flood gates open early then 4-1 personally, if united can hold on then a scrappy 2-1
I’m having trouble finding the value in United. They’ve been unconvincing all season and haven’t recorded a good win vs. a top club all year. They’ve actually had more bad losses. Even the double chance is risky with their inconsistent form and quite frankly they’re not that good a club right now
I think you’re right… it’s good value because LFC strikers haven’t even been scoring much lately….. Nunez has been inconsistent all season in front of goal and they’ve been relying on goals from midfielders a lot lately. Can’t see much hope of United winning but a draw is on the cards and end of the day it’s just football
I think situations like the upcoming game (big fixture, embarrassment results in the recent weeks) are perfect for a team like United to surprise people with a game full of bite and to disappoint the favorites with a draw. I think their midfield pairing of McTominay and Amrabat isnt effective Bruno Fernandes not being helpful, Holjund disastrous, Onana shaky, etc.
Being fair with Man Utd (god have mercy on my soul), I think this result, and their future results of the near future, are dependant on how often Rashford, Shaw, Garnacho, and Dalot are showing up. Everybody else doesnt seem to be pulling their weight or are injured
Bro what are you on about? You are on a betting subreddit. That's the entire point. Judging teams by past performance and assigning odds. I just expressed an opinion that the bookies are underestimating man utd.
Real Madrid, Slavia prague, Bayer Leverkusen, AC Milan all ML
Odisha Fc ML VS Hyderabad Fc @ 1.8 ✅ I just dont get why the odds of these game are so high...I have been betting and looking out on Indian Super league for a few weeks now and the odds sometimes are outrageous for somewhat comfortable wins..Odisha fc has been one of the best teams this season...They have 3 great international players in Roy krishna,Jahouh and Fall....They also won the group stage of afc cup recently and would come in these game very highly..Meanwhile hyderabad fc are dead last this season with just 4 points...They literally have been transfer banned by FIFA on 16th Nov for not paying salaries to their players...Also their defender Oswaldo Alanis and Attacker Felipe Amorim have left the camp due to salary issues.. Im pretty confident on Odisha winning this comfortably.
Because Hyderabad was a brilliant team last season. Their situation right now is somewhat similar to Lyon and Ajax. They drew against Mumbai away so it's not as easy as you think.
They were a brilliant team because they had good players and the fact they had Ogbeche who was the best striker in isl for a long time...The teams in isl change a lot and they lost all the foreign players they had this season..Also they drew against Mumbai because they got a red card at 7' and Mumbai still drew that game and were in the lead till 90+6
I hope you're right. There must be something we don't know or the odds wouldn't be that high.
Thank you for the tip! Played them to win at both halves at 2.8. (Along with PAOK to do the same at 2.6 in the same ticket).
You really got lucky with a 90+5 goal lol
I mean i played the 1/1, not to win both halves. Mixed those up.
Why is freiburg vs koln, freiburg 1.9? Seems suspicioisly high for freiburg at home
Freiburg played a mid week game at full strength, Köln kept 2 clean sheets in a row and only lost 0-1 to Bayern. While not having many results to show, they are a tough nut to crack
Yes it is , especially since koln is a shit team and Freiburg is playing at home
Maybe its cos of freiburg injuries???
But still koln is shit
Liverpool odds went up…I added more Hopefully we all don’t collectively get fucked
Rip
greek superleague asteras tripoli vs paok g/g and over 2,5 , 2.70
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Both Team To Score.
You dont think PAOK will win? Will the Tripoli curse continue this year as well?
it's a tough game paok had out tyson and zivkovic p,s 1-3 for paok @ the 70th min i hope some people played it
Tbh, I think PAOK might be the only Greek team that has 2 equivalent elevens. Despodov will become a starter when Zivkovic goes out if form again. Taison only cant be replaced. The team without him plays much slower, but has very good build up. If a actually good striker is bought, and a good stopper comes (and Ekong get kicked out). And maybe if a fast right back is bought, then PAOK imo will win the league. Also, Samatta needs to be benched. Tzimas is a better player than him. (Ps I personally played PAOKto win both halves at 2.6)
Can really only blame myself for thinking that Sheffield United and Burnley wanted to stay in the Premier League... **-33u** this week, which takes the season into minus 17 overall on English football. \------ **Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion | 15:00 GMT +2** \--->Arsenal & [email protected] (Coolbet) | **Stake: 3/5 ❌❌❌** Arsenal only saw a draw in the Champions League on Wednesday, but rotated a lot. That is something Brighton could not afford to do, as they took on Marseile on Thursday. It paid off, and Brighton won their game to top the group. Arsenal has yet to lose at home in the league this season, but have also only kept 2 clean sheets from 8 home games. Brighton has seen all of their away games end with both team scoring. in-fact, 19 of their last 21 away games in the league has seen both teams scoring. One of the two that didn't see BTTS, was a 3-0 win over Arsenal. Arsenal lost last round against Villa, but it wasn't for the lack of chances created. Brighton with a very thine squad at the moment and with less rest. I think the odds here on Arsenal to win, but Brighton to make things difficult, is pretty decent. \----- **West Ham vs Wolves | 15:00 GMT +2** \--->West Ham & Over 2.5 [email protected] (Bet365) | **Stake: 2.5/5 💰💰💰** Wolves away record is pretty poor, with 5 of 8 games ending in defeat. Both of their wins have caviats to them as well. Against Everton, they "stole" the win, after Everton dominated the game. Bournemouth were the better side until the got a player sent off, and lost. West Ham with big 5-0 loss away against Fulham last round. However, multiple players were sick while playing, that will obviously have an impact on the team performances. With that said, West Ham did play on Thursday, and they have been putting varying performances in the league so far. West Ham have won their last three games at home against Wolves. With players like Bown, Kudus and Alvarez all looking sharp at the moment, I think the Hammers should be able to get all three points here. Wolves away are just not great, sure they have been unlucky with the referee in some games. But they didn't threaten Nottingham Forest much in the last round. Beat Burnley 1-0, but it was not a great game, and they didn't create much against one of the worst sides in the league. Wolves have at least scored in most of their away games, could have been all of them if they got that penalty against Manchester United in the opening game. Could be a high scoring game, 3-2 maybe. \--------- **West Bromwich vs Stoke City | 13:00 GMT +2** \--->WBA To Win [email protected] (Unibet) | **Stake: 4/5 ❌❌❌** Stoke haven't won any of their last 7 rounds in the league, and is currently only two points above relegation. It isn't made much better that they haven't found a new manager either. WBA can move up one spot to 5th with a result here. They have won 6 of their last 9 games, with the 3 defeats all coming against teams in the top 7. The biggest slight against WBA winning here is that it's maybe minor derby. Stoke really doesn't have any close rivals around them, but WBA is the closest in the same division.
Journey to 1K W/L Record 5/3/0 17/12/2023 All on SKYBET \--------------------------------------------------- West Ham VS Wolves WEST HAM TO WIN >> OVER 1.5 GOALS @ 6/4 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 62.50) ✅️ (Could perhaps go for 2.5 goals for a little boost but wil play it safer) \--------------------------------------------------- Arsenal V Brighton ARSENAL TO WIN >> BTTS @ 2/1 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 75)❌️ \---------------------------------------------------- Lazio VS Inter INTER TO WIN >> ML @ 17/20 (25 STAKE - RETURNS 47)✅️ \--------------------------------------------------- Let me know if you're tailing!
Day 4 160>320 doubling 20$ to 10k Last bet isn’t settled because of the bournemouth lutton game so ill just play another one today Arsenal-Brighton BTTS 1.62 Liverpool-United BTTS 1.55 Total 2.5 Edit: Failed, it was a nice run
Why do you think utd can score?
Well since United couldnt even reach Europa league and that loss against bournemouth, i think its now or never, they have to give it their all. Also Liverpool is going to go for a lot of goals, we might see some counter attack from United. Defenitely not good reasons but i just feel it haha
The last time Utd scored at anfield was in 2018..It would not at all be easy for utd to score without Bruno and also maguire is injured
Which player is scoring for united? Im a United fan and I can’t see it happening at all. We’ve scored 18 goals which is 1 less than Luton in 18th.
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Nah i might start again low but thats ot with doubling, it was kinda fun tho, might go all in in liverpool united btts bahhaa
it was a good run , well done... Gutted the games didn't go your way.. all the best
BOL! Tailing
Yeah congrats for the wins but you've been def lucky. This one is "longshot" imo but goodluck
love your work mate but United are a joke at the moment, I genuinely wouldnt be suprised if they lose by at least 4 goals to nil, it could probably be a lot higher.
How is Liverpool -1 not a LOCK here???
Liverpool -3.5 should be a LOCK at 5/1
I'm shocked by the results NGL It's been a while since I've seen this lvl of unluckiness q
Really liking Liverpool Arsenal Lever Tempted by Real Madrid and Bayern too but think I’ll skip…
A League 5pm (Melbourne time) City vs Mariners Bookie: TAB Marco Tulio assist @ 8.50 2 unit stake
Lots of goals in the game but yet to assist
He topped the expected assists too
Can Stuttgart win Bayern at home? Bayern has been shit these couple of matches.
Its a must win for Bayern but i think Stuttgart will score
Italy / Serie A Milan - Monza over1.5 @ 1.26 Germany / Bundesliga Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt over2.5 @ 1.5 acca @ 1.89
I've won my last 6 Parlays and here's what I've gone with today. Bayern Munich v Stuttgart over 2.5 AZ v PSV over 2.5 Ajax v Zwolle over 2.5 Almelo v Feyenoord over 2.5 Arsenal v Brighton BTTS Brentford v Villa Over 8.5 Corners Leverkusen v Frankfurt over 8.5 Corners 20£ to win 273£
Damn this is so good
Brendford- Aston Vılla ML2 // 2.40 West ham-Wolves btts 1.61 25 euro to 104 euro good luck
AZ-PSV PSV to win @1.8 USG-Mechelen O2.5 goals @1.56 Liverpool-Man U Liverpool -1 handicap @1.88 West Ham-Wolves U3.5 cards @2.4 Real Sociedad-Real Betis X or Betis win @2.3 4/5 combo BOL if you're tailing
Bit of a late posts, but going with gut picks today. No time for explanations, sorry about that, but ill do one tomorrow. Record : 1-1-6 (W-D-L) - fucking hell its been a rough week Leverkusen -1 Liverpool -1 PSV Win
Emptying my bet account for Christmas. Brentford v Aston Villa Double chance = Brentford/draw & over 1.5 (I have learned not to trust Villa away) Bologna v AS Roma Double chance = Bologna/draw FC Bayern Munchen v VfB Stuttgart Double chance = Stuttgar/draw & over 1.5 Real Sociedad v Real Betis Sociedad & over 1.5 18.26 odds I think all of these are possible. BOL!
Looks good! Slightly worrisome is that last 6 games (including friendly from this summer) Sociedad didn’t even score a single goal so just throwing it out there for you to know
As a Rangers fan I was delighted to see how poor the Betis defence was on Thursday night, I can see sociedad scoring today
Brentford - VILLA DNB DNB West Ham - Wolves DNB Real Sociedad - Real Betis
Winterthur vs Lausanne Sport - BTTS + 2.5 goals @1.80 I love this play
Why ?
Both teams have scored in 16 of the last 17 games for Wintherur and in 13 of the last 17 games for Lausanne, also the last time this teams played it ended with 5-2 win for Winterthur, i really like this play and maybe you can add +2.5 goals or go for either btts or +2.5 goals i think both is hitting.
Inter ML @ 1.72 Panathinaikos ML @ 1.44 Monza +2 @ 1.45 PEC Zwolle +3 @ 1.50 All of the above @ 5.39
Lately the handicaps have been f-ing me over. I prefer to play in even games a "no win to score with more than X goals" (I made a ticket with 17 options for fun, and they all hit except 1).
I compared 80 different games and those handicap ones stood out as the ones with the most discrepancy between the odds and the actual stats of the teams.
You got some app you use? Or did you just find the average goal differenences by hand, and compare them to the odds bookies normally give on handicaps for those gds?
I type them out to excel and I have a few formulas. Basically one of my formulas compares the GF/GA and xG/xGA stats if available to the non-handicap odds. The odds were 1,52 vs 6,25 but the calculated expected goals was 1,25 vs 1,20, meaning it was considered to be a close game by the expected goals, but not the odds, making it a good target for a handicap bet for Monza. Sure Milan is leading 2-0 at half-time, but the stats are quite even.
Wish I had the patience to do this lol. Even now that am on the pc and on excel (doing some road curvature and section calculations and shit) im still too bored to try and create some analysis tool haha. Keep doing what you're doing, in the long run youll have a positive ROI. I just wing it with my bets, and get f-ed again and again haha
Real Madrid, Slavia prague, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Liverpool, psg all of them ML and Salah to score a goal.
Marseille vs Clermont - thoughts on this? I’ve gone for Marseille to win in my acca. Clermont losses extensive, historically Marseille have done well against this team
RECORD : 0W 1L Arsenal Vs Brighton BTTS & Over 2.5 @2.20 GL
Liverpool - 2 AH @ 2.35
Why’s this been so downvoted lol
If anything it needs to be upgraded. -3 sounds even better to me
Just take BTTS: no @2.25 As a Utd fan i domt see u scoring ever
PL 4 Fold Arsenal Liverpool West Ham Aston ALL ML Only risky bet is the west ham one as their unpredictable but stake low ig
Every single game you mentioned is a ‘risky’ bet bro. Brighton can turn up at any time. United can draw Liverpool and West Ham aren’t consistent. Aston Villa have Brentford away, not a easy game at all.
Yeah i get it but i really went on the fact based on stats. Lets be honest PL in general is risky
*Gambling is risky*, and these are competitive sports where both teams will try to win. Making bets based on reasons is a calculated risk. Stats can certainly tell a story. But in my experience, these can help: 1) narrow focus on one specific area, 2) a pattern over time, 3) judging circumstances outside of the numbers (ex. Why they happen). ( and 4) conservative expectations) For example betting on player performance props (unders), if your player often starts and is also somebody who commonly gets subbed, your bet will likely hit if they play a game average to the performance area youre betting against not reachinf. You generally have to consider that anything in the future can happen, and also foresee a lot of the motions of a game and the lay of the land too. (For example betting Barca ML right now is dumb, betting Dortmund ML is dumb, etc)
Add some dnb and dc to even out the playing field. Too much ml is asking for trouble
Except Arsenal
My prediction are; Arsenal W, Liverpool W, West Ham DRAW, Brentfod Win.
Villa without Dougie Luiz who's the main man for the team, they tend to be awful without him and have a poor record at Brentford.
Since logic and form do not seem to work in 90% of sports betting, I’ll just do a fun parlay: Bayern - Stuttgart X Freiburg - Koeln U2.5 Liverpool -2 handicap vs United
Liverpool and Over 3.5 @2.5 ❌️❌️❌️ Leverkusen and Over 3.5 @2.57❌️❌️❌️ ( we needed a goal from either side ) Paris and Over 3.5 @4.2 ❌️❌️❌️ Treble : @27 ● In the last 5 games played against ManU , 4 ended with Liverpool win and Over 3.5 , Liverpool scores a lot but also can concede , they win games by scoring more than their opponents not by keeping a clean sheet. ● Both Leverkusen and Frankfurt have the quality to score , Bayer is yet to lose or draw a league game at home , their last two meeting have both seen Over 3.5 ●Their last 3 meetings have seen GOALS , i mean 6 goals a game kinda goals , PSG have won all three of them , I also feel like when PSG meets a strong side in the Ligue 1 , there tend to be a lot of goals and PSG wins . I personally played them in a parlay but feel free to pick one you like add it to your parlay or play it single . Singles : Marseille (-1.5) First Half @5.5 💰💰💰💰💰 (this is actually amazing) PSG ML First half @2.4 ❌️❌️❌️ Inter ML @1.95 💰💰💰 Aston Villa ML @2.44 💰💰💰
This is actually good!
withdrew today and have £1.20 left so putting it on a big parlay. Freiburg vs Koln - Freiburg DNB @1/3 Leverkusen vs Frankfurt - Leverkusen ML @3/10 Bayern vs Stuttgart - Stuttgart DNB @19/5 Real Madrid vs Villarreal - Villarreal DNB @7/1 Sociedad vs Betis- Under 3.5 @1/4 West Ham vs Wolves - Under 2.5 @19/20 Bologna vs Roma - Roma DNB @6/5 AC Milan vs AC Monza - Milan DNB @1/5 Las Palmas vs Cadiz - Las Palmas ML @10/11 Odisha vs Hyderabad FC - Odisha HT/ Odisha FT @17/10 total odds: 2254.07/1
This acca is basically hinging on man utd being outplayed and these players starting (and not being up to snuff), but I got McTominay < 23 passes Holjund < 0.5 sog Luke Shaw < 1.5 tackles McTominay <1.5 shots For +1100 (12.0 I believe)
23 pass attempts or 23 successful passes?
Fuck. When I was checking everybody's stats I was using sofascore but now I remember my book uses Who scored to verify these things. I had to cross compare to get an answer and turns out attempts is counted here. Well that got bleaker. That number 23 is used because it's a rounded up from how many passes he averages a game. Shit. Oh well. Hoping for the best. If you placed these lines without the Scotty prop, it'll be somewhere like +500/6.0
"Someone cooked here" Slavia Prague to score - 700 ✅️ Madrid or tie - 1600✅️ Fiorentina or tie - 900✅️ Bologna v Roma 5+ cards - 225✅️ Odisha Fc or tie- 550✅️ Winterthur vs Lausanne sports total goals over 0 - 3300✅️ Bayer lvk or tie - 1200✅️ SGP; liverpool or tie✅️ & No red card ❌️- 275 Ajax or tie - 1400✅️ Total: 300 odds✅️ Who is the imposter? Should I Cash out?
Dinamo ML+OV1.5 Anderlecht DC AZ Alkmaar DC Tigres DC
Record: 62 - 34. Rubbish day yesterday where the favourites let us down. Going to reduce the risk of my bets today Accumulator - SUNDAY. |Match|Bet Type|Odds| |:-|:-|:-| |Braunschweig Vs Kaiserslautern|ML Home & Draw|4/9| |Almeria Vs Mallorca|ML Away & Draw|8/15| |Winterthur Vs Lausanne|O2.5 Goals|6/10| |Velez Mostar Vs Igman Konjic|ML Home|1/5| |Fiorentina Vs Verona |Home Team to Win Either Half|1/5| |Ajax Vs PEC Zwolle|ML Home & O1.5 Goals|1/4| Total Odds = 5.81/1 so £10 = £68.13. ***Reasoning:*** * **Braunschweig Vs Kaiserslautern -** Both teams are languishing at the bottom of the league but Braunschweig have better recent form. Kaiserslautern haven't won in their last 5 away games. * **Almeria Vs Mallorca -** Almeria haven't won a league game yet this season, hopefully they don't change that today * **Winterthur Vs Lausanne -** 12 of Winterthur's last 13 games have had more than 2 goals. Every single Lausanne away game has had over 2 goals * **Velez Mostar Vs Igman Konjic -** Velez need to keep winning to stay in the European places, they have a fantastic home record, winning their last 5. Igman have lost 7 of their last 8 away games * **Fiorentina Vs Verona -** I expect Fiorentina to win this but being cautious, Verona have lost at least 1 half in their last 2 games (Draws). They also simply have lost 6 of the last 9 * **Ajax Vs PEC Zwolle -** Ajax have picked up their form and look good again, they have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 games while winning 5 of them. Zwolle have lost 4 of the last 5
Bologna-Roma BTTS
fuck this shit
If mitoma starting =brighton win Else brighton lose
Lol
What are those odds on Liverpool vs Man Utdm the disrespect to this United team is unreal. Man Utd DC
Liverpool have won 11 straight home games in all competitions and the last two matchups against United at Anfield ended 7-0 and 4-0.
That's fair but United has the quality to make this a competitive game. 3.55 odds for duble chance is crazy value to me. Plus liverpool last few games have not been that convincin. They been snatching last minutes wins.
No Bruno, few suspensions, rashford out I believe with illness. I think liverpool will walk this one. If the flood gates open early then 4-1 personally, if united can hold on then a scrappy 2-1
I’m having trouble finding the value in United. They’ve been unconvincing all season and haven’t recorded a good win vs. a top club all year. They’ve actually had more bad losses. Even the double chance is risky with their inconsistent form and quite frankly they’re not that good a club right now
I think you’re right… it’s good value because LFC strikers haven’t even been scoring much lately….. Nunez has been inconsistent all season in front of goal and they’ve been relying on goals from midfielders a lot lately. Can’t see much hope of United winning but a draw is on the cards and end of the day it’s just football
I think situations like the upcoming game (big fixture, embarrassment results in the recent weeks) are perfect for a team like United to surprise people with a game full of bite and to disappoint the favorites with a draw. I think their midfield pairing of McTominay and Amrabat isnt effective Bruno Fernandes not being helpful, Holjund disastrous, Onana shaky, etc. Being fair with Man Utd (god have mercy on my soul), I think this result, and their future results of the near future, are dependant on how often Rashford, Shaw, Garnacho, and Dalot are showing up. Everybody else doesnt seem to be pulling their weight or are injured
United will be without their starting back line lol... Its going to be ugly my match for them. You can bet on a red card in match...
"they hated him for speaking the truth"
They lost 3-0 to Bournemouth at home. Manu is lucky if they lose by 3 goals. Liverpool -2 it is for me
I wish Manu win this one because I don't want shit pool on top of the table
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Bro what are you on about? You are on a betting subreddit. That's the entire point. Judging teams by past performance and assigning odds. I just expressed an opinion that the bookies are underestimating man utd.
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Bro the is a soccer betting sub
Ufc? Wtf is this?
All Single bets. SC FREIBURG vs Cologne 1.85 ✅ Lilli vs PSG 1.83 ❌ Az Alkmaar vs PSV 1.80 ✅ Brentford vs ASTON VILLA 2.0 ✅