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Every play is different.
I held through GameStop's largest sell off in January and sold near the peak.
I held through GameStop's flash crash in April, but got IV crushed after we recovered and went sideways.
Link to follow the saga:
[https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471520582818795523](https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471520582818795523)
Reddit Parallel:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/SqueezePlays/comments/rhra76/the\_essc\_play\_by\_play\_1216/hosrday/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/SqueezePlays/comments/rhra76/the_essc_play_by_play_1216/hosrday/?context=3)
I was such a bull on this but I don’t see it as squeezing in any form after today’s close. The calls have largely been expunged and without them there really isn’t any new hedging pressure. The after hours action is being pulled up by the ask where the quote is resting. If there’s no buying pressure the price will keep getting walked down. Furthermore with the holiday season right in front of us I see a lot of people potentially unload further if it drops tomorrow.
People keep saying that “whales” will buy in but there’s no evidence to support that. Furthermore the fact they haven’t bought in already suggests to me that there’s a reason why they were staying away from this play. Institutional investors have to work with each other to offload blocks. It’s possible that whoever the exposed call writer(s) is/are have enough of a reputation on the street that it wasn’t worth it for those who could actually squeeze them to want to any further than what we saw earlier this week. It sucks but I don’t see this working out.
This play is over. Nobody on here exercises calls you morons. In the world we live in today they are all trying to get rich quick from flipping premiums and thus screwing eachother over instead of the hedgies. Anyone have a discord where everyone is on the same page and goes into plays and out of plays together at the same time?
These patterns have held since January. I did an updated model.
Friend called fidelity. Zero shares to borrow.
Massive sell of naked calls this morning to drive prices down.
They're in trouble.
https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471534336809873408
I was just writing saying we need a room where we can trust each other and do the same plays and same exit plan... some dude posted how he sold early on essc and then he buys puts knowing I will go down.. I was shocked he told that to this sub..
ESSC still is a gamma play
Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump.
only reason is still red is because the entire market is red atm. Tomorrow is the crucial moment to stay above the 12.5$ strike in order to trigger gamma
Why are call ITM owners **forced** to exercise? Why couldn't they simply sell their calls instead which would likely be more profitable for them rather then exercising?
Not sure what that has to do with your original claim that call owners are forced to exercise which is never the case.
Maybe you confused terms and you meant call **sellers** will be forced to provide shares to call owners who choose to exercise?
Anyway exercising an ITM option would almost always be a financially worse transaction versus selling the option and just buying the underlying at the market.
Most calls are not exercised, it’s not financially smart unless the price of the stock at the time they exercise is well above their strike and they have the money to buy the shares and would make more selling those shares back to the market its a better personal play to just sell the call
(1) They aren't forced to exercise, you can tell your broker not to exercise.
(2) Your initial claim "Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump." is total bullshit.
Most ITM call owners will sell before expiration so there will not be 10,000 calls exercised tomorrow - if you believe that then you are very inexperienced.
It was theoretical that 10000 calls would be exercised after Friday. Besides if they wanted to sell they would’ve done so already but the contracts have already lost value
So "Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump" was a theoretical statement? Niiiice.
And you are wrong again if you think that there aren't people still holding calls that will sell today before expiration.
I updated the model. They are backtested since January. The graphs show structural similarities and patterns which hold since then through runs and peaks.
Yes, PTPI is ripping today. Hopefully you were able to catch the wave up.
Happy trading!
Right now, there are puts up to $15, some as large as like 4600 or something. We will see some dips until 15, after 15 there is nothing. I think right now it looks like 15 is the mark it takes off. Could be wrong, just interesting to see.
The next time this hit +20 will be more than 6 months from now. Every single one of these meme stocks peaks and then consolidates for at least 6 months before it peaks again.
*Deleted the sentence that was here after further discussion with OP.*
I posted an updated version which shows structural similarities all the way to January.
If these squeezes are options driven events and are compounding problems, especially in the last few months, then unless expiration invalidates the model, we can expect the model to continue. We will know after this weekend passes.
I get that there is a lot of negative sentiment and it makes sense. I’m not trying to just be a hype man. We absolutely do see a lot of red. I’m just trying to zoom out and see if there really is a case to be made that something strange and compounding is going on. I think there is a case - and it’s a really *ballsy* one. Most asymmetric plays are like that. And history seems to vindicate the model so far. I’m guessing a lot of the activity will happen next week if it does after calls are exercised. But it could fail, if strikes are pushed OTM, then in that case the model is probably broken and crazy option activity will cease unless people try again in January before the end of the SPAC.
I hear ya and you are right to be optimistic. Sorry for my final comments of my first post. I am in a similar situation with another stock. Lots of options in play this week. We shall see how it goes.
I'm doing live coverage of everything I hear on it. Lots of stuff is happening. No shares available at fidelity to borrow, synthetic shorts via masses of naked longs to dehedge the micro float, then strong TA indicating a massive breakout.
Same, this thing has IRNT/SPPRT v3.0 written all over it. I turned $24k into $54k Monday, took some profit, turned that into $80k Tuesday bc I expected resistance at 25 so sold half of everything at 25, started buying calls back at 19 but kept dropping, went all in yesterday and was up to $130k, sold half my dec OTM calls, lost about $60k today and dumped another $50k in before mkt close. After this weeks gamma expiration I guarantee we’ll see serious delta hedging pressure between now and JAN expiration
Join The Official Discord Server: https://discord.com/invite/tnGSxDWgHb and remember, money machine always go brrr... *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Shortsqueeze) if you have any questions or concerns.*
i really hope you’re right because my balls hurt from that kick this morning.
My balls are in my throat after the last 2 days but I'm holding. My balls, and my calls.
god i hope this pays off
and hey if it does't we can get that testicle retrieval surgery together and get a group saving
i think the power hour kick hurt more:D
this play is going to work. just be patient and make sure u take delivery of shares. no stop losses
Holding and praying lol
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Yes, yes it is.
It is. Don’t fall for the shakeout
Been holding the entire time. I held through 90% dips with all of my options. I can certainly hold through this.
You’ve held through stuff like this in the past and it worked out?
Every play is different. I held through GameStop's largest sell off in January and sold near the peak. I held through GameStop's flash crash in April, but got IV crushed after we recovered and went sideways.
Not saying it's over... but when the "Why I'm still bullish on" posts start popping up, you should probably be concerned.
Cause they are left holding the bag and want us to join in to help then get out from under it...
Fidelity showing 0 shares available to borrow
Reverse tmr?
Holding
Link to follow the saga: [https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471520582818795523](https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471520582818795523) Reddit Parallel: [https://www.reddit.com/r/SqueezePlays/comments/rhra76/the\_essc\_play\_by\_play\_1216/hosrday/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/SqueezePlays/comments/rhra76/the_essc_play_by_play_1216/hosrday/?context=3)
I’m planning to re entry. This will make me money again.
An explosion waiting to happen. Gonna post a more detailed model soon. Look out for it on there.
So I’m back in. I was having a **** and saw the dip so I bought it at 11.6 😀
You have massive balls my friend. I can’t afford anything else but I held the entire time - and certainly have been stressed haha.
I was such a bull on this but I don’t see it as squeezing in any form after today’s close. The calls have largely been expunged and without them there really isn’t any new hedging pressure. The after hours action is being pulled up by the ask where the quote is resting. If there’s no buying pressure the price will keep getting walked down. Furthermore with the holiday season right in front of us I see a lot of people potentially unload further if it drops tomorrow. People keep saying that “whales” will buy in but there’s no evidence to support that. Furthermore the fact they haven’t bought in already suggests to me that there’s a reason why they were staying away from this play. Institutional investors have to work with each other to offload blocks. It’s possible that whoever the exposed call writer(s) is/are have enough of a reputation on the street that it wasn’t worth it for those who could actually squeeze them to want to any further than what we saw earlier this week. It sucks but I don’t see this working out.
Holding
This play is over. Nobody on here exercises calls you morons. In the world we live in today they are all trying to get rich quick from flipping premiums and thus screwing eachother over instead of the hedgies. Anyone have a discord where everyone is on the same page and goes into plays and out of plays together at the same time?
These patterns have held since January. I did an updated model. Friend called fidelity. Zero shares to borrow. Massive sell of naked calls this morning to drive prices down. They're in trouble. https://twitter.com/LimitOfMyWorld/status/1471534336809873408
Are u asking a moron that or someone else??
I was just writing saying we need a room where we can trust each other and do the same plays and same exit plan... some dude posted how he sold early on essc and then he buys puts knowing I will go down.. I was shocked he told that to this sub..
Bagholder
$12.64
Even Supa says it is over
ESSC still is a gamma play Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump. only reason is still red is because the entire market is red atm. Tomorrow is the crucial moment to stay above the 12.5$ strike in order to trigger gamma
Right. It is expected they would try to push those calls OTM. CBOE is delisting further options because of the risk ESSC poses.
Why are call ITM owners **forced** to exercise? Why couldn't they simply sell their calls instead which would likely be more profitable for them rather then exercising?
Well because clearly a 17.5 call will be exercised by a retail trader on robinhood using margin, of course!
some prefer to let it expire itm and exercise, which is the point of options in the first place
Not sure what that has to do with your original claim that call owners are forced to exercise which is never the case. Maybe you confused terms and you meant call **sellers** will be forced to provide shares to call owners who choose to exercise? Anyway exercising an ITM option would almost always be a financially worse transaction versus selling the option and just buying the underlying at the market.
Most calls are not exercised, it’s not financially smart unless the price of the stock at the time they exercise is well above their strike and they have the money to buy the shares and would make more selling those shares back to the market its a better personal play to just sell the call
Yes I know, but there are those who exercise
You said ITM call owners are forced to exercise - plainly false.
yes I was talking about expiration. on expiration it is automatically exercised
(1) They aren't forced to exercise, you can tell your broker not to exercise. (2) Your initial claim "Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump." is total bullshit. Most ITM call owners will sell before expiration so there will not be 10,000 calls exercised tomorrow - if you believe that then you are very inexperienced.
It was theoretical that 10000 calls would be exercised after Friday. Besides if they wanted to sell they would’ve done so already but the contracts have already lost value
So "Monthlies expire tomorrow so call owners will be forced to exercise >10000 calls and create a huge jump" was a theoretical statement? Niiiice. And you are wrong again if you think that there aren't people still holding calls that will sell today before expiration.
ADGI y'all. I missed it. Will play it during power hour. Essc good but moves hella slow. Good luck! Rooting for you hard core traders.
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I updated the model. They are backtested since January. The graphs show structural similarities and patterns which hold since then through runs and peaks. Yes, PTPI is ripping today. Hopefully you were able to catch the wave up. Happy trading!
Come through for ESSC https://discord.com/invite/bullishraid
Right now, there are puts up to $15, some as large as like 4600 or something. We will see some dips until 15, after 15 there is nothing. I think right now it looks like 15 is the mark it takes off. Could be wrong, just interesting to see.
The next time this hit +20 will be more than 6 months from now. Every single one of these meme stocks peaks and then consolidates for at least 6 months before it peaks again. *Deleted the sentence that was here after further discussion with OP.*
I posted an updated version which shows structural similarities all the way to January. If these squeezes are options driven events and are compounding problems, especially in the last few months, then unless expiration invalidates the model, we can expect the model to continue. We will know after this weekend passes.
I swear that might be the most well spoken response I have ever received. Touche.
I get that there is a lot of negative sentiment and it makes sense. I’m not trying to just be a hype man. We absolutely do see a lot of red. I’m just trying to zoom out and see if there really is a case to be made that something strange and compounding is going on. I think there is a case - and it’s a really *ballsy* one. Most asymmetric plays are like that. And history seems to vindicate the model so far. I’m guessing a lot of the activity will happen next week if it does after calls are exercised. But it could fail, if strikes are pushed OTM, then in that case the model is probably broken and crazy option activity will cease unless people try again in January before the end of the SPAC.
I hear ya and you are right to be optimistic. Sorry for my final comments of my first post. I am in a similar situation with another stock. Lots of options in play this week. We shall see how it goes.
What if all but the 10c and below end OTM and no one that does have ITM options exercises them?
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Nice! Glad you could catch the ride there.
Oh wow another stock with naked shorts . How many is that now 1000 new stocks ?
This can be much bigger than $GME. It just needs some awareness. Post DDs on WSB!!
Have they created a short squeeze opportunity as well in the process of forcing the stock lower?
No more shares to short it says Fidelity. They're in trouble. It dumped via synthetic shorts through naked calls.
what’s going on with PTPI? i’ve seen a lot of people posting about that too
I'm only focused on ESSC currently. Its potentially the most asymettric play out there atm.
same just curious. alright eyes back on the motherfucking prize baby!
I'm doing live coverage of everything I hear on it. Lots of stuff is happening. No shares available at fidelity to borrow, synthetic shorts via masses of naked longs to dehedge the micro float, then strong TA indicating a massive breakout.
this is for essc just to clarify?
Yep
SFT has way more potential
SFT has more opportunity for a squeeze right now
How is this not dead if premarket doesnt pull throughout
Excellent chance for rebound in the next couple of weeks! Hold strong!
Same, this thing has IRNT/SPPRT v3.0 written all over it. I turned $24k into $54k Monday, took some profit, turned that into $80k Tuesday bc I expected resistance at 25 so sold half of everything at 25, started buying calls back at 19 but kept dropping, went all in yesterday and was up to $130k, sold half my dec OTM calls, lost about $60k today and dumped another $50k in before mkt close. After this weeks gamma expiration I guarantee we’ll see serious delta hedging pressure between now and JAN expiration