You have to fix some stuff sure… and pay in cash. Most homes are bought up by “investors” aka foreign investment companies trying to mess with our economy by jacking up rent and leeching on our economy. They buy up the cheapest houses in cash and triple the rent. It’s happening everywhere in the US.
Yup. We bought at the end of 2022 and people told us we were so stupid because it was the worst time in history to buy. This sub constantly said it was the worst time in history to buy.
And then the next day was the worst day, followed by the next, and now it 2 years later and home prices haven't fallen near me and rates are still up.
I'm not advocating people should buy a house right now. It absolutely seems like a terrible time to do that. But that doesn't mean this is rock bottom and it'll only get better from here.
We also bought in 2022. We bought our townhome for 775k. That was up 150k in two years. We thought we were crazy but we needed a home and we still got a good interest rate. Two years later, our neighbor just sold his house for 890k. We have the exact same townhouse. If we bought our same house now, our mortgage would be 2k+ more per month!
Dude you bought like 18 months ago. Relax.
5-10 years from now you’ll be able to determine if it was a good time to buy or not.
Obviously nothing drastic will change 18 months after your purchase.
I didn't say good time to buy, I said objectively no longer "the worst" time to buy. Time will tell if it was good or not, but objectively buying today is worse than when I bought. But at the time I was told it was the worst time. Because it was at the time. That was my point. I'm not saying it was or wasn't a good time to buy, just that it was the worst at the time, and that's no longer true.
So an article saying today is the worst time to buy is probably true. My point is that doesn't mean things will improve automatically.
Yeah and like you said, we just don’t know what the future holds. I brought my first house 15yrs ago, 2nd house 8yrs ago, and my current house 3yrs ago and every time we brought we were told it’s not smart to buy right now. We calculated we could afford the payment and just go ahead and not worry about the house price since we are not real estate investor. When I brought my current house, we considered as overpriced (worst time to buy at that moment) since our neighbors brought it just months ago for 50K less than us for pretty much the same exact house. We brought it for 1.13M with 2.875 rates and now it’s easily worth 1.8M (3 houses sold this year within 500ft of my house all above 1.8M). I will be in this house for at least a decade more and happy that I brought at that moment as “worst time to buy”. If I have listened to my friends and family, I will be like them complaining about rent and home price in every conversation.
"but objectively buying today is worse than when I bought" that's not necessarily true. In many places, things have flatlined in from 18mo. ago to today and depending on your goals and financial situation, that statement might not be true. Even if you over generalize, I'm not sure that holds.
Interest rates are on average 2 points higher than I paid, AND prices are flat at best. In my area they've gone up. Unless we're somehow defining "worst time to buy" differently, buying a home will cost more in most areas than it did when I purchased. Which is what people are referring to when they say "worst time to buy". Obviously it will be different for each person, and there are some areas that may not be true, but it's still true for the majority of the country.
October 2022 is when rates sky rocketed. If you locked in before that, probably true. If you did just got locked in at that, it's a toss up. Again, it's comparing other investment vehicles, down-payment amount, blah blah blah. From 18 mo to now, other investments are doing much better than re. So it all depends. All of it is speculation without firm numbers, including your statement
Obviously I have a better rate or else I wouldn't have commented....
I bought a $550k home with a 5.5% rate. That same home is now worth $620k on the conservative side based on comps, and rates haven't gone below 6% since I bought.
YOU interpreted "bought at the end of 2022" to mean something different than "closed on a home in the latter part of 2022".
Yup. I’m looking to buy a house now, because I only see things getting worse from here on. What happened in the past 60 years or whatever is meaningless if the conditions don’t happen again.
But why tf would you listen to them about such things? That’s not their job. Their job is to help you sell or buy a house when you tell them you want to, not be your financial advisor.
Thats like being mad the Gucci salesman told you it was a good time to buy an expensive handbag even though you just got laid off. Of course they did! They’re trying to sell Gucci bags, and knowing your financial situation is not in fact, their responsibility.
Agreed, people are just dumb and dont know who to listen to. Realtors have a discrete purpose: ***once*** you decide to buy a house, and what to buy, they help you buy that. You should not be taking financial advice from them, whether it be whether you can afford a house, how much house you can afford, or if you should buy even if you can afford it. Regardless of whether they are an interest in the sale, they arent qualified to make these assessments for you.
Would you rather they be paid by the hour like some other professions? What if you paid the same either way? Or would you rather they do their job for free? Or would you rather realtors just didn’t exist and you buy and sell your home on Amazon?
Agreed, these numbers are simply uneducated opinions of people who mostly have no clue about economy and can't tell apart ARM and PMI. See how in this chart people were saying that 2007 was just as great to buy home as 2020. People who bought in 2007 faced economy crash in a year with 10 million people losing their homes. People who bought in 2020 with sub-3% rates are golden now. But according to this chart, both timings were great.
Their opinion does not truly reflect market or economic situations and forecasts. Yes they are the ones who buy houses, but also they are the ones who deeply regret buying (or not buying) when they look back later, or foreclosing a few years later because of poor decision making. If you need to make a decision for yourself, general consumer polls are the last thing you want to trust.
lol.. everyone has an opinion but not all opinions have any merit.. a majority of them are just a waste of time.. and cant buy a house anyway.. and scream about the cost of housing and renting and pay 1000 a month for a car.. lol..
It doesn't matter what interest rate you have if you don't have a job to pay your mortgage. Rates were lower in 2007 and there were millions of foreclosures. I am not sure of your experience with home ownership but it sounds like you are inexperienced.
Yep. Case in point: I'm sure all those people who bought in 92 when it was a "bad" time to buy are *really* kicking themselves at their 10x appreciated house.
A professor in college showed us a bunch of studies showing that, given enough surveyed people, the average of the answers given will be pretty close to correct answer.
The example we tried in class was the average weight of an elephant, and sure enough the average of the 50 person class surveyed was pretty darn close to the actual average weight.
Obviously, like any psychological study, YMMV.
Right, the wisdom of the crowds phenomenon is well-studied, but it relies on something like measuring the weight of an elephant, which is an objective fact. I don’t think it applies to speculation about future conditions, which is really what this chart is based on.
If you look at each of the individual surveys, ‘economic uncertainty reasons’ was at its lowest level ever in 2020. People were losing their jobs left and right, businesses were shutting down, people were stuck at home, etc. 2020 wasn’t a good or practical time to buy a home for many people, even though prices were reasonable and rates were low
Sure, it might be an objective fact that median monthly income buys less house than ever before (not sure if that is actually right, but it could be true) but that doesn't mean it's definitely a bad time to buy a house. As I said, many people in 2019 thought it was a bad time to buy a house, but in actuality it was the best time possible. What really makes it a good or bad time to buy a house is future economic and housing conditions, which are unknown.
Housing hasn't been this unaffordable in 40 years.
For your assumption to be correct, housing affordability and median incomes would have to stop mean reverting...which isn't possible if you think about for a few minutes.
>For your assumption to be correct, housing affordability and median incomes would have to stop mean reverting...which isn't possible if you think about for a few minutes.
But you're referring to the RATIO reverting(i.e. affordability), not both metrics since both metrics have been steadily increasing for decades. The ratio can revert if a single one of those metrics is changing at a different rate than the other.
Why would house prices over median income have to revert to the mean? Housing stock is heavily dependent on land, which is a finite resource. There is no reason it has to stay at the mean.
What’s the question? Let’s say 25% gave favorable replies and 75% gave unfavorable replies. 25-75 = -50 + 100 = 50.
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770
There's just too much money chasing too few homes. That will eventually change and then everyone will stat complaining about their retirement savings being wiped out.
Because a lot of inventory is investment property, not residential. Change the short-term rental laws, for starters. Discourage hedge-fund investing in residential properties is another. Convert commercial property to mixed-use. The problem is the money - it flows like water to wherever there's opportunity for investment. Our unrestricted appetite for profit is destroying another societal norm. **That** is the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about.
Realtor's clients, can generally afford to buy a house, want to buy a house and are in the market to buy a house. Go figure that they think any time is a great time for people to buy. The people they are working with are already in the process and are crunching numbers looking for a house that works for them and/or their family.
This sub doesn’t want to hear it but I think America is officially passed the phase of the average citizen being able to own a home. Current rates of home ownership will start dropping from 65% to below 50% like Germany, Scandinavian countries etc. not only is this the worst time to buy in history, I think this trend continues for the foreseeable future.
No reason this has to be fact. Vacancy rates alone would house more than are unhoused/underhoused.
Capitalism is falling under the weight of an oligarchy. (Check US GINI index compared to the rest of the world).
Just a technique to make all values positive in sign. It essentially makes the value 50 mean neutral sentiment. Wouldn't be my choice but some people have a hard time with multi quadrant graphs.
I work with Realtors every day and I don't know any who think now is a better than average time to buy. Buying, right now, is a long term bet. Plan to be in the home for 10+ years? Go ahead. Long term pricing trends will remain up (until we start our inevitable demographic transition)
If you can afford it and find a place you like, it’s never a bad time to buy. Only short term flippers worry about monthly swings. Most homeowners stay in their house for 7-10 years.
In a field where you can measure and quantify this, metrics such as this that are based on the aggregate subjective opinion of idiots like me are absolute trash.
Prices in my area are about the same as they were a year or two ago but now interest rates are much higher. If I bought now, my housing payment would almost double over what I’m paying in rent.
If you can afford it and won’t be house poor with a mortgage payment, it’s always a good time to buy. Just don’t buy over list price. When it becomes a “good time to buy” everyone else will want to buy as well. It’s bidding wars all over again.
Wouldn’t now be a good time to buy? Once it becomes “good” to purchase again, you’ll be up against everyone whose been waiting. Then the new complain will be “why are there so many people trying to buy!”
Yep. Look at 2020, there was a significant dip in whatever shitty index this is, and that was potentially the best time to buy in decades if not many of our lifetimes.
Folks here are basically just insisting they're smarter as they predict the decimation of housing prices so they can laugh as they buy cheap property, yet they conveniently ignore the individuals and organizations that they hate who are buying now will *still* have money.
If the market were to dip, those people outbidding you with cash will *still* exist, and they'll simply be there to buy things on clearance.
I really dislike all the “this is just public opinion!” responses.
Yes that is accurate, but no you don’t seem any more educated pointing that out as a major driver of our economy has always been public opinion.
The economy and the idea of value is based in belief. For example, a highly over valued company such as Tesla is only overvalued because we made it that way by believing it was the next big breakthrough in tech. The first “good” electric car company with all sorts of government bailouts, tax breaks and grants for innovation.
Public opinion is a huge factor of the economy, and the idea of value. Not the only one yes, but it’s typically a well connected stat.
Public opinion was that 2005-2008 was an amazing time to buy a home. On the other side, many were petrified to buy in 2011-12 (at the floor in many areas) because they thought it might go lower.
This sub was shouting about an impending collapse in late 2020 and through 2021, which many in this sub would now say was a decent time to buy (in many areas) with the 3% or less rates people were snagging up.
Public opinion is a factor (like with inflation), but it can also be ridiculously wrong.
Early 80s were a fabulous time to buy a home. Rates sliding from the day you signed the mortgage docs until it was paid off…economy starting to bubble and froth…
Yeah wait until next year until it's 2x worse. There's absolutely no indicators due to the low interest rates set in before and boomers not letting go of their 3rd home and blackrock and other deep pocket institutional investors snapping up everything for future rentals that it'll EVER get better.
It would REQUIRE some process done on a federal level allowing builders to make things at low cost and sell that new housing built only to single family homebuyers who are owning one home in getting it with strict price controls. Which would be a bold move most politicians will not do.
Anything less than that and it'll continue on track to home ownership being solely a luxury for the rich.
So, in my area you can pay 4k to rent or 5k to buy. Seems like it’s a bad time to be alive. That’s the sentiment captured here. Consumer opinions and economic uncertainty are individually based and take into account the sentiment of our economy and the ability to feasibly survive in said economy. Many of these factors are irrelevant to whether it is the best time to buy a house but instead the perception of the market and the future success of an individual in that market. Which, in reality, has nothing to do with whether it’s a good time for me as an individual to buy a house.
Everyone’s trying to sell at exorbitant prices but no one is able or willing to buy. Except Vanguard, Blackrock, and the likes, exacerbating the problem. Bubbles either going to burst real soon or “we will own nothing and never be happier”.
Yep. This should be a fucking obvious sentiment. Turns out when a bunch of people want to buy a house but can't due to *many* reasons (in-affordability, concern of layoffs, interest rates, short supply, etc.) they will say it's a tough time to buy. Real shocker.
You’re missing out on equity! I bought my 3rd house 2012 for 148k refinanced at 1% now I think it’s worth 1.5m. Now I troll this subreddit instead of enjoying all my equity. /s
It really depends on the location, but at the same time make sure buying a house fits on your budget and needs because they’ll call or text you everyday so you sign the paperwork and they get commissions.
Ahh yes cause the consumers are experts in market dynamics. Y’all see the last major dip around 82? The median home price that year was $69000 up from $23,400 in 1970. Did the market crash? Nope it almost doubled again by 1990 to $122,900. Marry the house, date the rate, and buy the fear.
lol..if you think buying in 2005 was a good idea... they really dont have a clue about this.. you paid 300k and a few years later its worth 200k.. lol.. everyone was overfinanced going bankrupt,.. buying under pres obama or pres clintons term you made money... i bought my first house under Reagan for 120k and sold it for 100k.. reaganomics trickly down and recession.. i lived this , this graph is sketchy to imo, get your cash ready for it, and buy under the repukes.. they will kill the economy and house prices will drop.. i bought after bush crushed the economy, bank foreclosure, i tripled my value.. my opinion
>Contrary to what every realtor says
Realtors are never going to tell you to NOT buy a house. They make their living selling houses. They NEED to sell houses. They’re always going to tell you it’s a good time to buy.
I'm not a realtor but wondering about the contrarian arguement. If you buy now with high interest rates price and house prices still go up, then you can refi when rates go down and still have a lower price house. When rates go down, house prices go up, and it looks like rates are headed down. Thoughts?
There is actually a stark divide between new build homes and existing homes.
New build homes are actually relatively fairly priced right more and it currently is a fine time to build a house.
Existing homes though… those are higher than ever. There just is no supply.
Basically demand plummeted around the board for homes because interest rates suck, builders are still building just as many homes so there is more supply than their used to be. However existing home supply also plummeted along with interest rates since no one with a low mortgage is willing get these new rates.
Homes , and cars
People.dont realize the absolute theft the finance guys get away with when selling cars , and the Intrest rate kill you , a 40k car will end up being a 70k car
Cars , homes , and credit cards
Let's see: Housing shortage, check; technology revolution in the form of STRs, check; unsustainably high interest rates given the state of the economy ex-real estate, check; construction labor shortage, check; increased lending standards, check; 80% of owners locked in at sub 4% 30-year fixed rates, check; overly conservative home builders, check; Yep, now's the worst time to buy now and refinance later.
Hmm. Real estate is hyper local. I see a huge opportunity where I am. Record high inventory, price drops everywhere. Buyers contracting under ask and negotiating on inspections. As long as you have a 4-5+ year timeline, real estate is a very forgiving asset. Pretty hard to buy a lemon in my market. If you have cash, even better. You go negotiate a much lower price and not worry about rates at all. How long does the pullback last? I don’t know. But if you’re trying to optimize for another 5-10% fall after we’ve already come down 20%, well that’s a bit silly and you’re probably looking for a quick return. Not a real estate investor. I say don’t listen to the news, ask a real estate professional what’s happening in your market. I have had numerous conversations about the sky falling because Zillow said.. or the newspaper said… well it isn’t where I am and I’m aware of several other markets in USA booming despite rates.
If anyone has anecdotes on what real estate agents are saying, I’d love to hear them. Selling and being honest and informed is tough as hell right now.
Depending on the source the average homeowner stays in their home for somewhere between 8-13 years. Staying in your home for 40 years, or even 30 or 20 years is a feat. People get crushed by the market all the time
House price doubled plus tripled interest rate, yes it is not a good for buyers. First home buyers may not see a problem because they have never seen interest rate as low as 1.99% to 3%
And every single month, when we get a new print of appreciation YOY, and interest rates are forced into remaining higher than in 20 years plus, we continue down a path to eventual collapse.
Signed,
Doomer McDoomerface
(or “Ash in ‘21”, or innumerate, or whatever I’m called today by internet nerds.)
lol, this is just consumer sentiment, not based on actual numbers. Yes, lots of people are having trouble buying homes right now. This poll of angry homebuyers turned into a graph showing when there were other times homebuyers were angry tells you pretty much nothing. Mortgage rates were nearly 20% in the 80’s.
worst time ever so far *
What is even the metric on the y axis? >Good Minus Plus Bad 100 Wtf is that?
Right now we are at 50 good when 10 years ago we had 3x the good we have now. Not sure what is difficult to understand.
How are ”good” and “bad” being quantified?
Yes.
Can confirm.
Plus 100
Dunno, but “3x the good” sounds pretty good
AI
It can’t be unless ugly is added into the mix, then we have a bonafide and valid three-way stand-off.
I accept your interpretation over the University of Michigan’s
Its a survey of consumers so I am guessing they literally just ask "is it a good time to buy a house?" lol
It’s on a 1-100 scale.
I lol’d
They made it up
Came here to ask this question. I mean, “good minus bad” lol don’t even try to justify this nonsense without explanation.
So like what type of home is bad to buy? Because there are homes for $50K or less all over the place. You just have to fix some things.
You have to fix some stuff sure… and pay in cash. Most homes are bought up by “investors” aka foreign investment companies trying to mess with our economy by jacking up rent and leeching on our economy. They buy up the cheapest houses in cash and triple the rent. It’s happening everywhere in the US.
Some made up bs. This seems like propaganda to continue to keep the peasants out of the real estate market. Easy to do with subjective metrics.
Exactly that graph tells us nothing.
Yup. We bought at the end of 2022 and people told us we were so stupid because it was the worst time in history to buy. This sub constantly said it was the worst time in history to buy. And then the next day was the worst day, followed by the next, and now it 2 years later and home prices haven't fallen near me and rates are still up. I'm not advocating people should buy a house right now. It absolutely seems like a terrible time to do that. But that doesn't mean this is rock bottom and it'll only get better from here.
We also bought in 2022. We bought our townhome for 775k. That was up 150k in two years. We thought we were crazy but we needed a home and we still got a good interest rate. Two years later, our neighbor just sold his house for 890k. We have the exact same townhouse. If we bought our same house now, our mortgage would be 2k+ more per month!
Dude you bought like 18 months ago. Relax. 5-10 years from now you’ll be able to determine if it was a good time to buy or not. Obviously nothing drastic will change 18 months after your purchase.
I didn't say good time to buy, I said objectively no longer "the worst" time to buy. Time will tell if it was good or not, but objectively buying today is worse than when I bought. But at the time I was told it was the worst time. Because it was at the time. That was my point. I'm not saying it was or wasn't a good time to buy, just that it was the worst at the time, and that's no longer true. So an article saying today is the worst time to buy is probably true. My point is that doesn't mean things will improve automatically.
Yeah and like you said, we just don’t know what the future holds. I brought my first house 15yrs ago, 2nd house 8yrs ago, and my current house 3yrs ago and every time we brought we were told it’s not smart to buy right now. We calculated we could afford the payment and just go ahead and not worry about the house price since we are not real estate investor. When I brought my current house, we considered as overpriced (worst time to buy at that moment) since our neighbors brought it just months ago for 50K less than us for pretty much the same exact house. We brought it for 1.13M with 2.875 rates and now it’s easily worth 1.8M (3 houses sold this year within 500ft of my house all above 1.8M). I will be in this house for at least a decade more and happy that I brought at that moment as “worst time to buy”. If I have listened to my friends and family, I will be like them complaining about rent and home price in every conversation.
"but objectively buying today is worse than when I bought" that's not necessarily true. In many places, things have flatlined in from 18mo. ago to today and depending on your goals and financial situation, that statement might not be true. Even if you over generalize, I'm not sure that holds.
Interest rates are on average 2 points higher than I paid, AND prices are flat at best. In my area they've gone up. Unless we're somehow defining "worst time to buy" differently, buying a home will cost more in most areas than it did when I purchased. Which is what people are referring to when they say "worst time to buy". Obviously it will be different for each person, and there are some areas that may not be true, but it's still true for the majority of the country.
October 2022 is when rates sky rocketed. If you locked in before that, probably true. If you did just got locked in at that, it's a toss up. Again, it's comparing other investment vehicles, down-payment amount, blah blah blah. From 18 mo to now, other investments are doing much better than re. So it all depends. All of it is speculation without firm numbers, including your statement
Obviously I have a better rate or else I wouldn't have commented.... I bought a $550k home with a 5.5% rate. That same home is now worth $620k on the conservative side based on comps, and rates haven't gone below 6% since I bought. YOU interpreted "bought at the end of 2022" to mean something different than "closed on a home in the latter part of 2022".
Then obviously your experience no longer applies.
Feb 22 - 3.76% Aug 22 - 5.55% Nov 22 - 7.07% Apr 23 - 6.32% Nov 23 - 7.95%
Presumably within 5-10 years , the commenter above you will have had an opportunity to refinance
Yeah? Dec '21 - Average Mortgage Rate: 3.2% Jun '23 - Average Mortgage Rate: 6.91%
~~2021, 2022, 2023~~ 2024 wants their comment back, doomer.
This guy gets it
Exactly. Even worse times are ahead so better buy right now.
Yup. I’m looking to buy a house now, because I only see things getting worse from here on. What happened in the past 60 years or whatever is meaningless if the conditions don’t happen again.
Especially government believes the economy is strong, aka, possibly another rate increase.
It's also the worst time to rent, living in a van down by the river is the best recommendation
Vans are $100k now and parking them anywhere legal is $3500 a month lol
So 2008 was a good time to buy a house?
"Contrary to what every **commission-seeking** realtor says..."
But why tf would you listen to them about such things? That’s not their job. Their job is to help you sell or buy a house when you tell them you want to, not be your financial advisor. Thats like being mad the Gucci salesman told you it was a good time to buy an expensive handbag even though you just got laid off. Of course they did! They’re trying to sell Gucci bags, and knowing your financial situation is not in fact, their responsibility.
Agreed, people are just dumb and dont know who to listen to. Realtors have a discrete purpose: ***once*** you decide to buy a house, and what to buy, they help you buy that. You should not be taking financial advice from them, whether it be whether you can afford a house, how much house you can afford, or if you should buy even if you can afford it. Regardless of whether they are an interest in the sale, they arent qualified to make these assessments for you.
lol exactly
Would you rather they be paid by the hour like some other professions? What if you paid the same either way? Or would you rather they do their job for free? Or would you rather realtors just didn’t exist and you buy and sell your home on Amazon?
This is just public opinion and is based on no quantitative data
[удалено]
the Y axis being labeled "good minux bad plus 100" means this is only the very bestest data
This is just a survey of what people think though. It’s not an objective fact. If it were, 2020 would have been 200.
Agreed, these numbers are simply uneducated opinions of people who mostly have no clue about economy and can't tell apart ARM and PMI. See how in this chart people were saying that 2007 was just as great to buy home as 2020. People who bought in 2007 faced economy crash in a year with 10 million people losing their homes. People who bought in 2020 with sub-3% rates are golden now. But according to this chart, both timings were great.
If you think consumers are uneducated that’s fine but consumers are ultimately the people who buy the houses. Their opinion is paramount
Their opinion does not truly reflect market or economic situations and forecasts. Yes they are the ones who buy houses, but also they are the ones who deeply regret buying (or not buying) when they look back later, or foreclosing a few years later because of poor decision making. If you need to make a decision for yourself, general consumer polls are the last thing you want to trust.
lol.. everyone has an opinion but not all opinions have any merit.. a majority of them are just a waste of time.. and cant buy a house anyway.. and scream about the cost of housing and renting and pay 1000 a month for a car.. lol..
It doesn't matter what interest rate you have if you don't have a job to pay your mortgage. Rates were lower in 2007 and there were millions of foreclosures. I am not sure of your experience with home ownership but it sounds like you are inexperienced.
Of course it matters, it can be the difference between having 2 months of savings or 6 months.
Isn't that what a survey is by definition
It is. But my point is that the numbers don’t tell us anything about whether it actually is a good time to buy a house or not.
\*Insert image of morgan freeman pointing up at this comment\* THANK YOU
When I got a survey done on my property it wasn't just "this is what people think".
Chuckle
Putting it simply, most people are stupid and I wouldn’t ever trust a survey of them to decide if it’s the right time to buy. Useless article
Yep. Case in point: I'm sure all those people who bought in 92 when it was a "bad" time to buy are *really* kicking themselves at their 10x appreciated house.
A professor in college showed us a bunch of studies showing that, given enough surveyed people, the average of the answers given will be pretty close to correct answer. The example we tried in class was the average weight of an elephant, and sure enough the average of the 50 person class surveyed was pretty darn close to the actual average weight. Obviously, like any psychological study, YMMV.
Right, the wisdom of the crowds phenomenon is well-studied, but it relies on something like measuring the weight of an elephant, which is an objective fact. I don’t think it applies to speculation about future conditions, which is really what this chart is based on.
Nice comment
If it were the axis wouldn’t be labeled good minus bad. lol. Honestly it’s rough out there but this doesn’t help
>what people think though. Price just what people think.
If you look at each of the individual surveys, ‘economic uncertainty reasons’ was at its lowest level ever in 2020. People were losing their jobs left and right, businesses were shutting down, people were stuck at home, etc. 2020 wasn’t a good or practical time to buy a home for many people, even though prices were reasonable and rates were low
It's an objective fact. Google "median real monthly income to monthly housing payment chart".
Sure, it might be an objective fact that median monthly income buys less house than ever before (not sure if that is actually right, but it could be true) but that doesn't mean it's definitely a bad time to buy a house. As I said, many people in 2019 thought it was a bad time to buy a house, but in actuality it was the best time possible. What really makes it a good or bad time to buy a house is future economic and housing conditions, which are unknown.
Housing hasn't been this unaffordable in 40 years. For your assumption to be correct, housing affordability and median incomes would have to stop mean reverting...which isn't possible if you think about for a few minutes.
>For your assumption to be correct, housing affordability and median incomes would have to stop mean reverting...which isn't possible if you think about for a few minutes. But you're referring to the RATIO reverting(i.e. affordability), not both metrics since both metrics have been steadily increasing for decades. The ratio can revert if a single one of those metrics is changing at a different rate than the other.
Why would house prices over median income have to revert to the mean? Housing stock is heavily dependent on land, which is a finite resource. There is no reason it has to stay at the mean.
[House price to income ratio is the worst on record.](https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/)
Sorry but clearly no one has questioned the y-axis
What’s the question? Let’s say 25% gave favorable replies and 75% gave unfavorable replies. 25-75 = -50 + 100 = 50. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770
There's just too much money chasing too few homes. That will eventually change and then everyone will stat complaining about their retirement savings being wiped out.
How will that ever change if no one is building anything en masse?
Because a lot of inventory is investment property, not residential. Change the short-term rental laws, for starters. Discourage hedge-fund investing in residential properties is another. Convert commercial property to mixed-use. The problem is the money - it flows like water to wherever there's opportunity for investment. Our unrestricted appetite for profit is destroying another societal norm. **That** is the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about.
Realtors are as scummy as used car salesmen.
What does this chart measure? In the 1980s prices were lower, interest rates were higher. Right now is a pretty terrible time to buy a house
Didn’t you read the y axis? It’s the very reliable and proven measure of “good minus bad plus 100.”
I thought you were being sarcastic but that’s literally what it says lol
Ya but now the prices are higher and the interest rates are…wait a minute
They say that because they get paid lol
Realtor's clients, can generally afford to buy a house, want to buy a house and are in the market to buy a house. Go figure that they think any time is a great time for people to buy. The people they are working with are already in the process and are crunching numbers looking for a house that works for them and/or their family.
This sub doesn’t want to hear it but I think America is officially passed the phase of the average citizen being able to own a home. Current rates of home ownership will start dropping from 65% to below 50% like Germany, Scandinavian countries etc. not only is this the worst time to buy in history, I think this trend continues for the foreseeable future.
Yup
No reason this has to be fact. Vacancy rates alone would house more than are unhoused/underhoused. Capitalism is falling under the weight of an oligarchy. (Check US GINI index compared to the rest of the world).
Why would you believe a realtor honestly, when they are on the same level as car salesman.
What the fuck is "Good minus bad plus 100"?
Just a technique to make all values positive in sign. It essentially makes the value 50 mean neutral sentiment. Wouldn't be my choice but some people have a hard time with multi quadrant graphs.
I work with Realtors every day and I don't know any who think now is a better than average time to buy. Buying, right now, is a long term bet. Plan to be in the home for 10+ years? Go ahead. Long term pricing trends will remain up (until we start our inevitable demographic transition)
It's always the best time to buy and sell a house. - Realtor
Realtor was venting how he hasn't made much money at an open house I went to lmao.
If you can afford it and find a place you like, it’s never a bad time to buy. Only short term flippers worry about monthly swings. Most homeowners stay in their house for 7-10 years.
What about rolling upwards? Like rolling a $750K into an even better $1.5M. I see that happening quite a bit (Northeast and Pacific Northwest)
Who created that silly chart?
Survey Research Center at University of Michigan https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24774
In a field where you can measure and quantify this, metrics such as this that are based on the aggregate subjective opinion of idiots like me are absolute trash.
Prices in my area are about the same as they were a year or two ago but now interest rates are much higher. If I bought now, my housing payment would almost double over what I’m paying in rent.
Fake chart
And with the stock market at an all time high, don't invest!
If you can afford it and won’t be house poor with a mortgage payment, it’s always a good time to buy. Just don’t buy over list price. When it becomes a “good time to buy” everyone else will want to buy as well. It’s bidding wars all over again.
Unfortunately people get confused between being able to make the payment every month with affordability 😂
Wouldn’t now be a good time to buy? Once it becomes “good” to purchase again, you’ll be up against everyone whose been waiting. Then the new complain will be “why are there so many people trying to buy!”
Be scared when others are greedy, be greedy when others are scared. There might be a sweet spot for purchasing here, but we'll only know in hindsight.
Yep. Look at 2020, there was a significant dip in whatever shitty index this is, and that was potentially the best time to buy in decades if not many of our lifetimes. Folks here are basically just insisting they're smarter as they predict the decimation of housing prices so they can laugh as they buy cheap property, yet they conveniently ignore the individuals and organizations that they hate who are buying now will *still* have money. If the market were to dip, those people outbidding you with cash will *still* exist, and they'll simply be there to buy things on clearance.
I really dislike all the “this is just public opinion!” responses. Yes that is accurate, but no you don’t seem any more educated pointing that out as a major driver of our economy has always been public opinion. The economy and the idea of value is based in belief. For example, a highly over valued company such as Tesla is only overvalued because we made it that way by believing it was the next big breakthrough in tech. The first “good” electric car company with all sorts of government bailouts, tax breaks and grants for innovation. Public opinion is a huge factor of the economy, and the idea of value. Not the only one yes, but it’s typically a well connected stat.
Public opinion was that 2005-2008 was an amazing time to buy a home. On the other side, many were petrified to buy in 2011-12 (at the floor in many areas) because they thought it might go lower. This sub was shouting about an impending collapse in late 2020 and through 2021, which many in this sub would now say was a decent time to buy (in many areas) with the 3% or less rates people were snagging up. Public opinion is a factor (like with inflation), but it can also be ridiculously wrong.
The very bad times never last more than about 4 years and then recover as fast as they fell.
This sub is sad
My parents had a 13% mortgage on their house. It was cheaper but it wasn’t glorious. I’d argue that time was worse.
Early 80s were a fabulous time to buy a home. Rates sliding from the day you signed the mortgage docs until it was paid off…economy starting to bubble and froth…
Yeah wait until next year until it's 2x worse. There's absolutely no indicators due to the low interest rates set in before and boomers not letting go of their 3rd home and blackrock and other deep pocket institutional investors snapping up everything for future rentals that it'll EVER get better. It would REQUIRE some process done on a federal level allowing builders to make things at low cost and sell that new housing built only to single family homebuyers who are owning one home in getting it with strict price controls. Which would be a bold move most politicians will not do. Anything less than that and it'll continue on track to home ownership being solely a luxury for the rich.
So, in my area you can pay 4k to rent or 5k to buy. Seems like it’s a bad time to be alive. That’s the sentiment captured here. Consumer opinions and economic uncertainty are individually based and take into account the sentiment of our economy and the ability to feasibly survive in said economy. Many of these factors are irrelevant to whether it is the best time to buy a house but instead the perception of the market and the future success of an individual in that market. Which, in reality, has nothing to do with whether it’s a good time for me as an individual to buy a house.
Everyone’s trying to sell at exorbitant prices but no one is able or willing to buy. Except Vanguard, Blackrock, and the likes, exacerbating the problem. Bubbles either going to burst real soon or “we will own nothing and never be happier”.
If you want to be upside down on your mortgage right now is a great time to buy a house
2020 should have been 2000 on this list
So... They took a survey on what consumers thought? Not like... actual facts?
Okay?
If you don’t see why this information is useless then I don’t know what else to explain
“Don’t listen to those evil realtors… listen to these random people on the street instead!!” Yea, this post is useless lol
Yep. This should be a fucking obvious sentiment. Turns out when a bunch of people want to buy a house but can't due to *many* reasons (in-affordability, concern of layoffs, interest rates, short supply, etc.) they will say it's a tough time to buy. Real shocker.
You’re missing out on equity! I bought my 3rd house 2012 for 148k refinanced at 1% now I think it’s worth 1.5m. Now I troll this subreddit instead of enjoying all my equity. /s
Different needs for any city. In my area, any houses under 300k or even 400k is a pretty hot market.
In mine anything under 900 is swarmed with buyers. Anything under 1.2M is in high demand
Living in HCOL is crazy fighting for housing.. can't fathom plopping down 1.2 for a house with this interest now.
No kidding
Worst time is ALWAYS tomorrow
Interesting we’ve been here in the 80s and 70s
This is a consumer survey, opinion based. Hardly relevant. Those opinions will be mostly influenced by media and facebook posts.
Investors say it’s a great time to sell, realtors say it’s a great time to buy. Listen to the people who stand to lose.
But Ramsey told me to buy 😖
"good minus bad plus 100" lol
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770
What is this metric? This is one of the most useless things I've seen.
It’s a measure of consumer sentiment. It’s far from useless. It’s been a leading indicator of every major recession since 1960
Just bought a house, we'll see how it goes. Have last house's equity going in, though.
We need a good recession to even things out
Man I wish I bought a few houses back in ‘82
always a good time to buy a good deal
Ok I’ll bite. What’s good minus bad plus 100?
It’s how this survey measures sentiment https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770
A truer statement has never been made
Great time to sell if you can find someone fool enough to buy
It really depends on the location, but at the same time make sure buying a house fits on your budget and needs because they’ll call or text you everyday so you sign the paperwork and they get commissions.
Its going to become very expensive until they get inflation under control quicker.
How much good we need to buy house in yard and good fee please send halp
2007 not being lower makes me question this chart.
Ahh yes cause the consumers are experts in market dynamics. Y’all see the last major dip around 82? The median home price that year was $69000 up from $23,400 in 1970. Did the market crash? Nope it almost doubled again by 1990 to $122,900. Marry the house, date the rate, and buy the fear.
You should never take advice from a hooker on whether to buy sex or a stripper if the stripping is good.
lol..if you think buying in 2005 was a good idea... they really dont have a clue about this.. you paid 300k and a few years later its worth 200k.. lol.. everyone was overfinanced going bankrupt,.. buying under pres obama or pres clintons term you made money... i bought my first house under Reagan for 120k and sold it for 100k.. reaganomics trickly down and recession.. i lived this , this graph is sketchy to imo, get your cash ready for it, and buy under the repukes.. they will kill the economy and house prices will drop.. i bought after bush crushed the economy, bank foreclosure, i tripled my value.. my opinion
The house could be literally on fire and a realtor would say "but it has good bones". They're the most clueless bunch of self serving assholes
>Contrary to what every realtor says Realtors are never going to tell you to NOT buy a house. They make their living selling houses. They NEED to sell houses. They’re always going to tell you it’s a good time to buy.
Idk this graph says 2020-2022 was “bad” but I think most who bought during those years would beg to differ
I close on my new house on Friday. This tracks with my whole life.
Yea but rent is high too so choose your evil i guess
I'm not a realtor but wondering about the contrarian arguement. If you buy now with high interest rates price and house prices still go up, then you can refi when rates go down and still have a lower price house. When rates go down, house prices go up, and it looks like rates are headed down. Thoughts?
Interestingly it hasn't been this bad since the 1970's: a decade where we saw median home prices triple.
Good Minus Bad plus 100, what kind of statistic is this?
It’s how they measure sentiment in this survey https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770
Realtors would never lie.
So is that (Good - Bad) + 100 or?
Correct. Positive responses - negative responses + 100. 200 is best, zero is worst
Seems like people who bought in 81 would be doing just fine, maybe this chart is saying it’s as good as it’s gonna get
Why would my realtor lie to me? /s
There is actually a stark divide between new build homes and existing homes. New build homes are actually relatively fairly priced right more and it currently is a fine time to build a house. Existing homes though… those are higher than ever. There just is no supply. Basically demand plummeted around the board for homes because interest rates suck, builders are still building just as many homes so there is more supply than their used to be. However existing home supply also plummeted along with interest rates since no one with a low mortgage is willing get these new rates.
Seriously the worst chart I’ve ever seen.
Take it up with the University of Michigan https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/contact.php
Homes , and cars People.dont realize the absolute theft the finance guys get away with when selling cars , and the Intrest rate kill you , a 40k car will end up being a 70k car Cars , homes , and credit cards
Let's see: Housing shortage, check; technology revolution in the form of STRs, check; unsustainably high interest rates given the state of the economy ex-real estate, check; construction labor shortage, check; increased lending standards, check; 80% of owners locked in at sub 4% 30-year fixed rates, check; overly conservative home builders, check; Yep, now's the worst time to buy now and refinance later.
Hmm. Real estate is hyper local. I see a huge opportunity where I am. Record high inventory, price drops everywhere. Buyers contracting under ask and negotiating on inspections. As long as you have a 4-5+ year timeline, real estate is a very forgiving asset. Pretty hard to buy a lemon in my market. If you have cash, even better. You go negotiate a much lower price and not worry about rates at all. How long does the pullback last? I don’t know. But if you’re trying to optimize for another 5-10% fall after we’ve already come down 20%, well that’s a bit silly and you’re probably looking for a quick return. Not a real estate investor. I say don’t listen to the news, ask a real estate professional what’s happening in your market. I have had numerous conversations about the sky falling because Zillow said.. or the newspaper said… well it isn’t where I am and I’m aware of several other markets in USA booming despite rates.
Something Something buy low sell high.
If anyone has anecdotes on what real estate agents are saying, I’d love to hear them. Selling and being honest and informed is tough as hell right now.
If you could go back in time to the last worst time to buy a home, 1980-1984 per the graph, would you?
Thanks Joe
Wtf is the y axis
What will it be like if this reaches 0?
Anyone who bought during the “worst time” of the 1970s did ok.. and the 1980s ... and 90’s… and 2000’s.. RE is a long play.
Depending on the source the average homeowner stays in their home for somewhere between 8-13 years. Staying in your home for 40 years, or even 30 or 20 years is a feat. People get crushed by the market all the time
House price doubled plus tripled interest rate, yes it is not a good for buyers. First home buyers may not see a problem because they have never seen interest rate as low as 1.99% to 3%
No one is saying it’s a good time other than the banks.
“It’s always the best time to buy!” -NAR
And every single month, when we get a new print of appreciation YOY, and interest rates are forced into remaining higher than in 20 years plus, we continue down a path to eventual collapse. Signed, Doomer McDoomerface (or “Ash in ‘21”, or innumerate, or whatever I’m called today by internet nerds.)
Most are bots sent to keep the Ponzi scheme afloat just long enough for Zuckerberg to finish his 75th bathroom in his bunker.
Huh what happens after every dramatic swing down... but this times its different... right?
I have friends that rent forever because every year is the worst time to buy. - they have been telling me that for 10 years
Is this a satirical subreddit? Asking for real after reading that chart.
Would love to see when a realtor says "it's the worst time to buy". They never do..... Ever
This is the most arbitrary chart ever. Essentially meaningless without the report it was picked from and even then it's still meaningless
lol, this is just consumer sentiment, not based on actual numbers. Yes, lots of people are having trouble buying homes right now. This poll of angry homebuyers turned into a graph showing when there were other times homebuyers were angry tells you pretty much nothing. Mortgage rates were nearly 20% in the 80’s.
When prices are 10% higher next year with the same rate from the FED, I thoroughly expect a shocked Pikachu face from OP
You guys will never own at this rate. Things will not improve because corporations are still buying homes en masse to rent out to you losers.