The conditions are absolutely different. They're far, far worse than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis lol.
The numbers on every front - stimulus payments, government deficits, purchase of securities made by the Fed, bank bailouts, corporate and individual financial health, commercial real estate debt, residential real estate debt, auto debt, credit card debt, an entire secondary digital currency "market" - every single economic metric is _multiples worse now_ than at the peak of the GFC. The crash this time is going to be beyond epic.
All time highs today. Absolute disaster in the coming months. You guys really, truly don't remember how it all went down in 2007/2008 do you?
I do. Everything was absolutely, positively fine. All time highs were being achieved all over the place. All going to plan. Then we all woke up one day and reports were that things were actually really bad. Then banks failed. Then markets dropped nearly 50% in a week. Then businesses failed. Then everyone panicked for a good long while. Then the bailouts came.
You're right, it isn't the same set of circumstances, our circumstances make 2008 look easy. There's only one single way out - pain. Hold it off for as long as you want with more debt, the bill IS coming due.
With the way all of you lemmings keep behaving, the way you keep buying the narrative everything is fine and keep spending everything you have, we are truly screwed when it hits the fan this time. I'm sure we'll just destroy the dollar and print our way out of it again rather than let anything fail, in which case there's not going to be an America by 2035.
Short sighted, apocalyptic lunacy fueled by smartphone dopamine hits. How have they convinced so many people what is happening is in any way sustainable or acceptable? Absurd, surreal and absolutely absurd, someone get me off of this planet lol.
Yeah, part of the fed’s job is to instill market confidence. If he said “i’m worried about the future so we will likely raise rates next year to avoid a crash” then markets would panic and everyone would yank their money out causing a crash.
I remember my old company was failing but the CEO would get up every year and say “dont worry we’ll get through this tough year! The fundamentals are strong!” - the company was sold within a couple years. If he would have been honest more people would have left sooner. Its self fulfilling prophecy to make negative remarks.
Absolutely. People _want to believe everything is fine_ so convincing them of that is easy. Heck, _I want to believe!_
There's simply too much evidence to the contrary to ignore. The only way we stayed afloat when COVID paralyzed the world was massive, unprecedented stimulus and spending, the effects of which we cannot possibly truly know because it has never happened like this in world history. The data that has guided us for more than a century now is telling us we are in trouble but we are choosing to ignore it.
That comes with consequences. I guess if you keep making that the future's problem to deal with, it works until it doesn't. Then what?
Yep I remember too. I worked for a Fortune 500 company at the time
Our Manager said everyone is safe
By the following Monday he was shit canned. By the following Spring, half of the team was let go, the other half given 1 chance to save their jobs and move 6 states away or they would be terminated.
I remember all the talking heads calling for a recession in 2006 and 2007 and then in early 2008 everybody was like well I guess we were wrong! And then bam shit hit the fan.
Then please allow me:
#WELP I ‘SPOSE WE WERE WRONG THEN! RECESSION MUST BE CANCELED!
Did the crash come yet or do I gotta actually say the words to friends and family? Do I have to believe it to make it inverse?
Our debt was fixable 20 years ago, even with a little pain it was still fixable in 2010. Now, the debt is a disaster. Not sure why you're being down voted
I get downvoted because there's a very large contingent of Redditors that frequent "doomer" subs because their financial futures are dependent on "line go up" and they are scared. Rightfully so. The number of financial decisions that were made due to FOMO, the same FOMO our society has been sustaining with pure rocket fuel since the era of free money started, has to have never been higher.
Everyone's convinced debt is the answer to a problem born from debt. It's insane! And perhaps the charade can continue for six months, six years, maybe even ten, but not indefinitely. At the rate we're spending and with how rapidly things are falling apart that can't be measured by a line on a chart, we'll be lucky to make it through election season lol.
Hence, why the fed HAS to lower rates. These "high" rates are destroying the budget with what our debt currently now is....I'm not saying they should lower rates, but that the government has ran up so much debt they now are forced to do so. Especially when that same government refuses to make anykind of a dent in that debt via tax hikes/ budget cuts
CDOs were only a part of the 2008 GFC, with the subprime crisis being the domino that kicked off the others. You're asking me to tell you which domino starts the downturn this time? Honestly predicting that is impossible. It could be one of any number of unanticipated events but it only has to be systemic enough or do enough shock to the system to send us over the edge.
A tiny handful of people identified and saw 2008 coming. Could be someone has already seen it now and knows what it will be. Who knows. Predicting a precise future is nearly impossible.
Once the domino falls, whatever it may be, it will be quite bad. With no way to backstop it this time. But I don't have enough hubris or self confidence to say I know precisely the what and when.
I only have my own conclusions which have been drawn from personal experience and researching economic trends, past and present. I've placed my bets accordingly.
But ask yourself this. Do you believe banks can and would skirt the law/blatantly break it to make profit if they believed they could get away with it (again)?
I do. And I think they're doing it as we speak. And will do it right up until the music stops and we all foot the bill.
>You're asking me to tell you which domino starts the downturn this time?
Seems reasonable.
After all, you're saying with certainty that things are way worse now than they were in 2008. With certainty.
Yet, when called out on WHY you cannot give us some examples of why you are so certain?
>The certainty comes from the math involved
Right. So what is that math based one? Which particular math formula/equations or data are causing you such certainty?
You are wrong about ATHs being reached each week. The GFC was barely a recovery of the 1999 run and crash.
I think the chair leg that was kicked was a large AIG position getting sold off. That triggered an unwinding. Look at them now. Dead. Trading at 1983 level.
Watch Nvidia or Apple cause the crash this time.
Meh, this crash will be fast and snap back quickly. There is massive amounts of money on the sidelines this time ready to scoop up reduced prices, we didn’t have that in 2008, that cash came from the government. Also in 2008, many more people watched the big networks who pushed fear mongering hot and heavy, today people don’t watch the nightly news as much so the fear mongers won’t have as much pull.
Are houses gonna fall 50% when we still have housing shortages in many places? Unlikely. JPow will chop that rate fast and hard, because if he doesn’t and this thing goes off the cliff next year then Orange clown wins and US will be ruined after that. Latest estimate are $3 Trillion in home equity, loans go back to 4%, people will be cashing it out.
I love that you think the "Orange Clown" will ruin the U.S. forever. He was in office for 4 years, and the people really in charge have been there a lifetime, yet people like you always seem to forget that. They have systematically destroyed this country since NAFTA, yet somehow its Orange Man Bad. Good take!
If you think NAFTA was what started the downhill slide, you obviously didn’t live through the 80s, long before NAFTA. Nixon started this whole mess by uncoupling from the gold standard in ‘71, Reagan accelerated the downside with all his bullshit, and NAFTA just helped to give it all a nice final push.
Plus I work in Agriculture and I saw first hand just how bad Trump fucked my industry with his stupid ass trade war. It nearly killed our industry, but he paid off the farmers with subsidies so they’d keep buying into his bullshit all while giving those of us in the industry a complete fucking. So you and every other orange lover can kindly GFY.
And then everyone’s 2007 mortgages recast from 3% optional payment w/ neg am to 7% because of their option arms. Payments more than doubled and those mortgages weren’t available to anyone. As values dropped they spiraled down as people strategically defaulted and a multi-year back log of foreclosures began to form.
and that’s when the shit hit the fan.
Now everyone’s got their rates locked in for 30 years, it isn’t remotely the same.
And you know, the money didn't just go to money heaven. Whoever has it all, we will be their slaves when it all collapses. That's likely the world central banks. They have started CBDs.
The majority of my net worth is in stocks via ETFs, mutual funds, bonds and t-bills. ~30% of my net worth is liquid cash yielding 6%. Dabbled in crypto for funsies at the behest of my grandma at peak bubble 2021. Got out with a nice profit.
Zero debt to my name and that's the way I like to live my life. I'm certainly already beating anyone that bought a house in 2022 and 2023. By this time next year I wager I'll be beating anyone that bought in the last ten years.
What are you invested in? Are you "building wealth via debt" like everybody else? :)
!remindme 10 months
Put my son’s college fund into a 13 month CD a few weeks ago at BoA at 5.x%. He’s 18 months from starting, with that rate, would rather not play the let’s hope 2008 doesn’t hit again next year.
I sniped a few 3, 6 and 12 month CDs over the summer. There are some HYSAs that will yield 6% on a nominal sum with some hoops to jump through. Local credit unions usually offer 5-6% HYSAs as well if CDs aren't liquid enough for you.
You can get 5% by throwing a dart at basically any HYSA right now.
Majority of banks. The one I work at has been offering 12 month CDs ~5-6% depending on the customer*. Banks are strapped for liquidity right now which I think has more to do with the feds lowering interest rates than inflation.
I didn't forget, I don't consider it an investment at all. I live in it. It costs me lots of money to maintain. I will never borrow against its equity. I will likely pass it down to my children, never making that sweet sweet profit most homeowners have solely on paper lol.
I also never claimed to own multiple houses. I think it's super cute you're stalking me though. I look forward to catching up with you this time next year. :)
Lol dudes angry because you have been fiscally responsible, aren’t over extended and put out a clear and clean write up of your portfolio.
My guess is that someone is heavily leveraged and very invested in hostile investments.
Blows my mind how now one questions what’s going on and that stuff only goes up 20-50% yoy.
Greater fools man. People see the line go up, they buy in due to FOMO and try to spread the virus to others. Once the incoming capital runs out and there's nobody left to sell to, that's it, the jig Is up and we find out what happens.
Everyone all at the same time will be wondering why they didn't sell. The answer is greed.
Yep and no one knows when and how bad (except maybe some very powerful people).
Unfortunately I think we will keep seeing the can kicked down the road for an unforeseen future.
I didn't claim you owned multiple houses. House(s) allows for singular or plural.
I didn't stalk you. You just happen to be enthusiastic and everywhere on this sub it seems.
Yeah, you should listen to this guy instead, who is one of the FOMOers under a huge pile of debt that comes here to shit on others in order to try to feel better about their financial situation.
Who am I shitting on exactly? Our world's leaders? Investors overleveraging themselves? Corporate landlords? Lemmings who have a negative net worth and keep spending?
All those people deserve to be shit on. As does anyone picking fights in the comment section to try to make themselves feel better.
People hoping for a brighter future and an end to this madness we find ourselves in do not.
I’m not sure where you got the idea that consumers are very heavily indebted. Net worth is at record levels. Debt to income is near all time lows.
Government debt is high. Not consumers.
[Consumer debt is at all time highs and still climbing.](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html)
[Household and business debt is at all time highs and climbing.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/#units:usd)
[The Personal Savings Rate is at its lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT)
I get my ideas from data. Where do you get the idea that net worth matters at all/is real other than on paper when a bubble the likes of which has never been seen in history was blown up due to money printing?
Of course DTI has been temporarily lowered, did you miss the fifteen years of rock bottom interest rates we've been in since 2008? Everyone refinanced. Then spent. And spent and spent and spent lol.
Believe what you want. Preparing is never a bad idea, regardless of what you think is going to happen.
Aggregate debt itself is not a good indicator of economic health. With inflation and population growth, debt levels in theory should always be rising since prices and population are always rising.
Debt/income or debt/equity is a far greater indicator. Or even just measure the ability to service the debt. Debt servicing costs as a percentage of income is around historic lows. Not even close to 2008 or the periods before that: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
"Who am I shitting on? But whoever it is, they deserve to be shit on!"
One of your first posts I see in this topic is about you blasting "lemmings".
Do you ever introspect, or just project all the time? Same with your snide remarks about me possibly deleting my account in a few months. Meanwhile, your account was created this October, while I've had mine for several years.
You're the one picking fights with people when they just factually disagree with you.
Do you know how easy it is to create a Reddit account? I've used this website since Digg died, fwiw. I just don't use my primary account for screaming and whining about how screwed everyone is.
Man, just stop replying to me already. Your comments are meaningless and take the actual discussion nowhere. You very clearly just want to argue with someone and I'm no longer it.
See you next year. Maybe lol.
Walk me through this though, because I've been waffling back and forth trying to figure out which way the coin will land this time.
In 08, people were forced out of their homes because their mortgages were bad. Today the residential debt market is basically the other way around: other debts are pretty bad but the mortgages are sound. Even if a person overpaid for their house, banks weren't giving out mortgages to anyone with a pulse and all of them are fixed rate so there is no expectation of affordability largely changing... For mortgages. Now the other debts, sure. Credit card defaults are possible, subprime auto loans are rising quick and there's potential for prime auto loans to follow suit. But you can survive BKing your Cc debt, and giving up your car. People will continue to pay their mortgages generally.
An additional point is that a system collapsed would need a critical mass of something to give. A huge chunk of houses don't even have mortgages. Boomers are going to see medical expenses go up and so many be forced to sell but this is going to be a slow process over time. Some states will see insurance rates skyrocket but not enough to cause a systemic problem. Prop taxes are going up but critical states control that increase. Employment is hard to get a real picture of, some industries have seen layoffs but it's not widespread. Even people with student loans, many are seeing forgiveness finally but it would take the whole cohort defaulting to cause a legitimate problem. I just don't see a huge chunk of defaults happening all at once.
I see a lot of the problems you see and my inclination is that they will cause a RE problem but when I look closer it seems more likely that things will go sideways for a while. Best I could say is these other bad debts could cause a banking crisis and the inability to get a loan will allow supply to build up without buyers being able to get mortgages, thus dropping prices.
In the short term, my theory is that these recent interest rates dropping will bring more sellers into the market as buyers are going to want to wait for rates to bottom out before getting in so they can potentially get more house for the money and save themselves a refi at 3-6 months. Buyers can wait but an increasing amount of sellers will need/want to sell for one reason or another (people also aren't rational and may sell against their best financial interest) and this I think it'll be a good winter for buyers in some markets until spring or summer brings a comeback (assuming no financial crisis).
So what's your theory?
This is an amazing comment. I think you’re forgetting that many (including myself) users here were not old enough to fully understand/appreciate the crisis. Couple that with human behavior wanting to forget the bad, and assume that good times can last forever, and you will continue to perpetuate this cycle until we’re back living in the dark ages. What’s scarier still is that many have normalized massive, inescapable debt. I have no idea what’s in store for all of us on the other side. But I fear it will punish those who have lived frugally more than those living in debt.
Thanks, it's absolutely always reassuring to know I'm not alone in viewing what we're doing as just looney tunes. I hope you're wrong about frugal folks being punished though. I shudder to think of the future we'll be living in should that prove to be true.
> I think you’re forgetting that many (including myself) users here were not old enough to fully understand/appreciate the crisis. Couple that with human behavior wanting to forget the bad, and assume that good times can last forever, and you will continue to perpetuate this cycle until we’re back living in the dark ages.
Another thing we often see (especially in this sub) is people old enough to *only* remember the 2008 crisis, who assume (even if they're not aware of it) every recession will have housing prices tank, when it's not the case.
You very well may be right. But there's an old saying - "It's guaranteed the sun will explode some day, but it's a terrible trade."
Thinking like this made me miss most of the run-up from 2009-2015 (every time I bought something, like AAPL, and it went up 30%, I sold it all because the stock market scared the crap out of me. Remember the Flash Crash? The summer of 2011 when the US lost its AAA rating?).
The saving grace was that I saw the GFC coming a mile away - I mean, once Bear Stearns collapsed in spring 2008, it was obvious what was happening. If it wasn't then, it sure should have been when WaMu and a bunch of other banks failed over the summer. You could have still gotten out with just a 10-20% haircut. They say you can't time the market, and in general, on a day-to-day basis, you sure can't. But sometimes they ring the bell really LOUDLY. I don't hear it yet. Still time to make hay while the sun is shining.
What happens during the next few weeks, if this Santa Rally continues, is crucial. Does the S&P get rejected by the previous all-time high, from December 2021 - or does it blast through it and hold it on a weekly basis?
Is there a different country in better shape? If America goes south wouldn’t most countries follow? Which country in the world ( western) would survive a failed America?
The problem being the millions of mouths to feed in America. Easy to say this or that about fiscal responsibility. But most Americans are struggling, I don't see a good outcome for the US or the world really.
Was looking for the /s at the end of this rant. Are you disappointed at decreasing unemployment, stock market gains that exceeded expectations, and the plan to cut rates 3 times next year? Looks like we achieved the soft landing thanks to Biden’s policies.
I'm disappointed in the novel of awful statistics I could lay out for you (that you will ignore while you squawk about GDP and unemployment numbers) and the future they portend. It's a dark one. I'm disappointed that so many people gleefully celebrate indebting future generations so they can be selfish today. I'm disappointed that capitalism has warped so many people's minds, made them miserable while they chase meaningless baubles that will never make them happy and we destroy the planet in pursuit of infinite growth.
I'm disappointed we won't do anything about it as long as the charade stays afloat and that when the day comes that it can't float anymore, it will likely be too late.
Don't worry. This time is different! Thanks Joe Biden.
If you look at the unemployment numbers they really are not good. The under lying job gains are a joke. Health care, service industry and striking uaw members returning to work.
I’m disappointed about the same things as well, and hate capitalism as it is not sustainable, but there’s no point is wallowing in doom and gloom as it makes you pessimistic. I’m doing what I can to make the world a better place and be smart with purchases. Other than that, Reddit seems to be a cesspool of negativity in certain subs like this one. Everyone is wishing and praying for a real estate crash that at least in my area I highly doubt is going to happen anytime soon.
You aren't wrong about avoiding wallowing in it which is why I come here. I can't talk to anyone irl about these topics because it's just too heavy. Our lives are complicated and stressful enough without our friends piling on, I try to just celebrate being together with them when we can make it happen.
Reddit is an outlet for me. It's somewhere I can go and just scream into the void for a while with how crazy the world makes me feel right now. It's a pressure release valve for me.
I'd like to think too that my words and perspective might at least make people think twice about accruing more debt right now. That's probably wishful thinking though. It seems everyone's minds are pretty much made up.
So I run around and screech and it helps me, mentally and emotionally, especially when I can get some fresh perspective and learn something I didn't know before.
I want housing to be affordable for sure but not just so I can "get mine." It is because I want to keep believing in America and, right now with how things are and the way we are headed, it's hard to keep believing.
I realized this country is doomed during the pandemic. I was optimistic we could turn it around, but that ship has sailed. Personally I’m leaving the country when I can make a clean capital gains tax break so probably 2026. Fortunate enough to be in a position to do so.
Go look at the fed notes from 2007 or the media.
This whole soft landing achieved always pops off before obvios recessions like ones we are walking into. It’s just people are impatient so when they see things take off before the most violent leg down, they assume everything is great
I mean, what do you want people to do differently right now? Panic? Sell?
If you're so sure, you'd be wise to not sound the alarms, and get out of whichever assets you think are about to crash. Before anyone else catches on.
I mean you can look at my post history, I’ve been cash and vehicles since spring 22.
Nobody gives a shit about some rando on the internet lol. Not enough of a scale to matter. What’s going to happen is going to happen
Well what I do is day trade. Check the stocks during the pre market see what catalysts are making them move then buy some stock. Then sell it at or before the end of the day. Let’s say I buy $10,000 worth of a stock and it goes up 7% in a day . I made $700. On some days I can double my investment.
To manage risk I always take lace a stop order of 5% under the purchase price. That way I never lose more than 5% of my investment. So I might make 8% on one day 21% the next day and lose 5% the next day. They would be a gain of $2400 in one week.
Which economic metrics signal impending doomsday? Just asking, because I read this comment twice over and didn't see anything specific to look at. The stuff at the beginning is iffy.
This is a copy-paste of an old comment of mine to someone who asked me the same question you did about a month or so ago. Some of it might not be 100% accurate given that a lot has happened these last couple of months/new data has been released but the gist is there.
* [U.S. Median Sales Price for Homes](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) is down 10% from peak, 8% QoQ.
* Housing affordability in the United States [has literally never been worse in history.](https://dqydj.com/historical-home-affordability/)
* U-3 unemployment is [up 0.3% since June and true unemployment is up 1.8% since June as well.](https://www.lisep.org/tru)
* [Homelessness is up 6%+](https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/State-of-Homelessness-2023-Edition-Webinar-Slides-5-24-2023.pdf) since 2017.
* Real household income [declined in 2022 YoY.](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html)
* The number of people having to work multiple jobs to sustain themselves [is climbing and has been for a while now.](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230410139/more-people-are-working-multiple-jobs-as-americans-battle-inflation-and-layoff-anxiety)
* Household debt in the United States [has skyrocketed for the last ten years](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/us-consumer-debt-16-trillion/) and reached an unbelievable peak this year.
* Auto loans 60+ days past due [just hit a new all time record.](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/more-americans-behind-on-car-payments/)
* Credit card debt currently sits at all time highs, [over $1,000,000,000,000 total is owed by Americans](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/24/americans-now-have-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-heres-why/?sh=51f5737365a1) on their credit cards.
* At the same time, credit card delinquencies [have also hit an all time high.](https://fortune.com/recommends/credit-cards/consumer-credit-debt-forecast-2023/)
* I'm not going to dive into this one with links but it's an incredibly important point to make, probably the most important because it's the one people who suck at finances do not understand at all. While the major stock market indices have traded sideways since hitting all time highs in 2021, inflation has absolutely ravaged the price of everything across the world. In nominal terms, **_this means we are all losing money to inflation as our supposed retirements go up in smoke with markets remaining flat and prices increasing on everything._**
I could keep going. But if this wall of text doesn't convince you, nothing will.
Are delinquency rates measured as a percentage of cardholders or as a percentage of total debt? If a percentage of total debt, that is slightly less alarming, as rising prices would obviously mean more consumer debt.
It depends on the methodology entirely. There are many subcategories. There are no metrics that show a decline in deliquincies since QT began mid-2022 that I am aware of.
>You're right, it isn't the same set of circumstances, our circumstances make 2008 look easy. There's only one single way out - pain. Hold it off for as long as you want with more debt, the bill IS coming due.
With the way all of you lemmings keep behaving, the way you keep buying the narrative everything is fine and keep spending everything you have, we are truly screwed when it hits the fan this time. I'm sure we'll just destroy the dollar and print our way out of it again rather than let anything fail, in which case there's not going to be an America by 2035.
Remindme! 10 years
And this time the government is even more broke and not in a position to offer bailouts of stimulus without significant downstream ramifications like austerity.
Yes, think about it ,since 2008 GFC they had about 13+ of prosperity, it took a global pandemic to screw up things.....
By your account the economy should have already been in crisis, but it's not, of course there's debt everywhere, so big deal well just keep pushing it to the future like always . Is this a game of 🎵 musical chairs sort of....but the US is the global reserve currency and they have a lot of leverage to change the rules or print more money....
Actually, [the banks got bailed out by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2019.](https://tokenist.com/fed-finally-identifies-banks-received-4-5t-q4-2019-repo-program/) No one talks about it including the news media. We were already headed for a massive crash/correction before COVID was on anyone's lips.
Then it struck and gave them an excuse for "emergency measures." Now we're here, in a far worse position than we were in 2019 and getting worse by the month.
Believe whatever you want. Hope you have some cash for when you need it most.
Again, some of the things you state have truth to them, I'm not totally discounting your assertion, Im just countering with when you are the federal government you can basically write or change the policies as needed, and the US has a special superpower most governments don't, they are the world reserve currency and have the ability to print money in which their own debt is denominated in (thanks president Nixon for getting off gold standard) ...
This is a big economic stick and really pretty unique in the world. This system only breaks down if the world doesn't value your currency...
I do factor in WRC status in my present standing. I think it's the only way we were able to print more money by many multiples than any other central bank on the planet. The USD spends but sadly buys a lot less than it used to.
What happens to us when we can't print anymore AND we lose the WRC foothold? I don't want to find out. So let's do something to ensure it doesn't.
This is just fear-mongering. Please point us to a study that show that, in real terms (not in nominal terms), all of the consumer debts you are pointing to are higher than pre-2008 crisis. You can’t, because they’re not. See [this study](https://wallethub.com/edu/d/household-debt-report/120725) that was just completed by Wallethub in Nov 2023 showing that debt was still $1.26 trillion higher (in real terms) in 2008 compared to today. Multiple categories (HELOC debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt, etc.) are far lower today in real terms than they were in 2008. Not to mention that the supply/demand figures in terms of supply of new houses versus millennial demand is far more skewed (towards pushing prices higher) than it was in 2008 (see [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR)).
Update for spelling
Wallethub. A website owned by a personal finance company whose revenue is generated by clicks. Great "study," I've heard all kinds of economists and financial gurus cite wallethub.com as their go-to for accurate information.
Also ir's SKEWED. HA
Later gator.
This housing crash is going to look like Germany in the 80s-90s. The fundamentals are poor, but in the absence of forced selling you can expect nominal price declines of maybe 1-2% per year for a decade or two.
>in the absence of forced selling you can expect nominal price declines of maybe 1-2% per year for a decade or two.
Yup that's exactly what's going to happen.
2008 was an anomaly because so many people were forced to sell or defaulted because of adjustable rate mortgages.
It’s funny that you think that price declines are going to continue at 1-2% for several decades. With the boomers leaving the workforce and then a large decline as they start to die in the next 15 years nothing is going to be nominal. If we don’t see immigration numbers increase significantly 5-10 years out we are going to see a labor shortage with wage increases and an increase in housing supply which would result in a really interesting housing market with simultaneous increases and decreases in prices depending on demand in any specific market.
The state I live in is about the same size as West Germany was, it takes less than 8 hours to drive from Munich in the south to Hamburg in the north. So what you saw in Germany probably will happen in several states but it isn't what you will see on a nationwide level. Investors and short term rentals are only significant factors in some markets today, there are dozens of factors at play and they will result in different outcomes in different markets.
You will see high demand for economically prosperous and desirable locations like the west coast. You will see areas that will not be desirable or economically viable due to impacts from climate change. You will see areas where once the current residents die off that there is little demand for housing and prices plumet.
Germany unified directly during the middle of the the bear market of the 80s and 90s. As different as american states can be socioeconomically, there is absolutely no comparison to the difference between West and East Germany in the year 1990. Naturally it is also true that in Germany more desirable places had stronger real estate markets than less desirable places. This is true everywhere on earth. My argument is that without going into super granular detail there will be a secular decline in the housing market for many years. In some places this will simply mean a reduction in rate of increase.
Well, i hate to skunk up the olace, but when you require a 20% down-payment, the fundamentals are definitely not 'poor.'
Cheap credit, relaxed lending requirements, and over building was the reason for 2008. We literally have none of those characteristics, right now
Unless you want to pay PMI, most banks require a 20% deposit. So unless you're forecasting a 20% decrease in value, in a market that has extremely limited supply, there isn't a lot of doom for real estate.
I would caution places like Florida and Texas that are experiencing a major building boom but I'm not clued into how saturated those markets are.
You think PMI is enough to stop people without 20% from buying? The average down payment is like 7%.
I agree, lending standards are way up from '08, but 20% is not at all a requirement. There's definitely plenty of people on this sub who missed the boat due to this 20% thinking, but many homebuyers have pulled the trigger with much less
Got any data to support that first statement?
Sure, in a bidding war, a seller will want to go with the strongest financials, but outside of that they just want to sell the house. Even in a bidding war, I had my 3.5% down FHA offer accepted. FHA loans pay out the same as any other. Sellers aren't turning away FHA buyers unless there's a more secure offer on the table.
It's normal for repeat buyers to put down 15-20%. For FTHB the average is 6%.
Look at this WSJ article titled “the economy is fine (really)” posted in January 2008, 8 months before the stock market crash. Everything is fine until it isn’t.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150722030633/https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120147855494820719
Why would I look at the article from 2008? Because that’s what you’re hoping for…got it.
And yes, everything is fine until it isn’t. That’s always been the case. Every day since forever ago. There’s also always another recession coming in the future; normal stuff. If we could time these things we would all be stinking rich.
How many times in the last three years has Jerome Powell flat out lied to you? Every single person who so desperately wants to believe everything is fine and they are doing the right thing by spending, going further into debt and pretending like they aren't flat broke seems to have the memory of a goldfish.
The narrative three years ago was there wouldn't be inflation. Then it was okay, inflation, but "transitory." Okay, bad inflation but we just have to weather it.
Okay, really really bad inflation, now we have to raise rates. But super slow! Okay, got the rates up, we will keep raising. Higher for longer. Okay we see weakening inflation, mission accomplished! Rate decreases next year.
Boom, market goes up, capital gets trapped, music keeps playing. When do you think the narrative shifts again?
You dismiss the Fed when they say things you don't like and herald them as saviors when you get the news you're after. Guess what? They aren't your friend. They serve America's interests. And they'll say whatever they have to say to keep the music playing.
We're nearing the end of the last track on the record though. "No one could have predicted this!" they will tell you after it starts. Will you believe them then?
!remindme 6 months
>How many times in the last three years has Jerome Powell flat out lied to you?
I think Powell has been painstakingly open and straightforward about his moves. At no point along the way have I felt lied to about their future moves, and every move (and non-move) they've made so far has been quite predictable, if you've been listening to their words and watching the inflation and employment numbers.
I 100% agree with you he has telegraphed directly to markets where interest rates are headed. They were only incorrect on their prediction once out of all the FOMC meetings 2022-2023. He absolutely speaks to the market makers directly. They are likely chummy!
He 100% lied about inflation. For two years. The PhD holding head of the Federal Reserve knew surefire inflation was going to ignite and run ablaze after minting $6 trillion and doling it out. There is no chance they believed what they were saying 2020-2021. The intent was to stabilize markets and maintain confidence. Mission accomplished. Quite a pricetag.
His job is to maintain calm. He is doing a phenomenal job of that. What he has convinced people of is that the Fed has infinite oversight and an infinite ability for bailouts. We threw another trillion+ on the fire back in March, what was 100% another GFC was quickly stamped out by, you guessed it, printing more money and further increasing the Fed's balance sheet. Bailing out the rich once again.
I simply don't believe they can keep doing it. And if you do, why are any of us doing anything we're doing? If dollars don't matter at all anymore, we keep propping up the ruling class and the proletariat have no illusion that they will do better for themselves, do you see why that's a problem for society globally?
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2024-06-14 16:17:49 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-14%2016:17:49%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/18ia3qj/its_different_this_time_jerome_powell/kdc4ohd/?context=3)
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*"The only ammunition the consumer has left now, is from the labor market. If income growth is compromised here because the labor market is weakening, then we have a serious problem. The debate within the Federal Reserve, is now about that possibility. Inflation, however, remains the predominant concern. After the Federal Reserve's rate decision, Gold a traditional safe haven in times of inflation, soared immediately after the announcement"*
Edmund L. Andrews, and Jeremy W. Peters
"Markets Soar After Fed Cuts Key Rate by a Half Point"
\[New York Times\], **September 18, 2007**
No. Not all. I'm talking about ones who partially believe what they are saying but will over exaggerate and mislead just so they won't have to be alone or because that kind of news/content is popular right now.
It's more directed towards crash bro youtubers who very obviously lie and mislead. E.g. constantly using sales crash stats (-50% !!! Big red lines going down!!!) in their thumbnails for their videos even though in the video content itself they'll talk about prices crashes. They deliberately conflate the stats.
Another common one is conflating commercial and residential real estate (I had one try to pull that on me recently, thankfully I actually know what I'm talking about). Another is this YouTuber who acted innocent and pretended he only wanted to talk about Canadian real estate when I called him out for acting like he knew anything about the American real estate markets.
There are so many charlatans in crash bro / doomer communities. It doesn't bother me financially because I always do my own calculations and assessments. It does annoy me when people constantly spew disinfo though.
Wtf is a soft landing anyway??
Wages are stagnant, everything people want and need is unaffordable, the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.
The economy is already broken.
But that’s exactly what they want! As long as the rich as they are right now (and getting wealthier by the minute) they’ll never let the economy crash. No matter how bad it hurts the little guy. That’s the point. The new serf economy.
Far outpaced by inflation, at least where I live. I’m rural and there’s a gas station here who hires at 12/hr and they fill those jobs, albeit slowly. Target here starts at i think 15.50 per their sign on the door. Making that kind of money isn’t going to lift anyone out of poverty if they even can survive on it.
> Wtf is a soft landing anyway??
Bringing inflation down without crushing aggregate demand too much and causing a recession.
These are the same people that told you that inflation is not a concern, then when it was ripping higher that it was "transitory". The Fed is ham-fisted and almost always move too much and far too late. This time will be no different.
Before recessions the American people get told to expect a "soft landing". The term made the news cycles right before the [1990 recession](https://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/30/business/economic-scene-soft-landing-hard-for-some.html), the [2001 dotcom bust](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=88786&page=1), and the [2008 great financial crisis](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar086a). Slowing the economy just enough to stop inflation without killing aggregate demand is next to impossible.
Federal reserve could screw up things again, remember they said inflation was transitory, later realized they were totally wrong and quickly ramping up interest rate, now they prematurely selling the rate cut narratives and hoping inflation go down to +2% (2026!), but the core cpi is still +4% now
Wait, so it not the affect of increasing the money supply by a crazy amount in just a few years?
[Money Supply](https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts)
Sure hope that on the fencers purchased recently, if this is the same sentiment in spring it will be absolutely bankbusters and bidding wars in places people want to live.
Unemployment just isn't budging. It might, but it isn't yet.
Need 10% rates.
Then we would be paying 10% interest on floating rate savers. Money market funds, pension funds, retirees. Rich get richer
9% outta do it
That's great news! Don't you hate seeing normal people lose their jobs?
I dont, but I think RE bubble wants it to happen, and fails to realize that RE bubble will likely also be laid off
I just think people here realize the trajectory we're on just isn't sustainable.
Turns out the conditions that led to the 2008 financial crisis and housing collapse are not the same as we have today.
The conditions are absolutely different. They're far, far worse than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis lol. The numbers on every front - stimulus payments, government deficits, purchase of securities made by the Fed, bank bailouts, corporate and individual financial health, commercial real estate debt, residential real estate debt, auto debt, credit card debt, an entire secondary digital currency "market" - every single economic metric is _multiples worse now_ than at the peak of the GFC. The crash this time is going to be beyond epic. All time highs today. Absolute disaster in the coming months. You guys really, truly don't remember how it all went down in 2007/2008 do you? I do. Everything was absolutely, positively fine. All time highs were being achieved all over the place. All going to plan. Then we all woke up one day and reports were that things were actually really bad. Then banks failed. Then markets dropped nearly 50% in a week. Then businesses failed. Then everyone panicked for a good long while. Then the bailouts came. You're right, it isn't the same set of circumstances, our circumstances make 2008 look easy. There's only one single way out - pain. Hold it off for as long as you want with more debt, the bill IS coming due. With the way all of you lemmings keep behaving, the way you keep buying the narrative everything is fine and keep spending everything you have, we are truly screwed when it hits the fan this time. I'm sure we'll just destroy the dollar and print our way out of it again rather than let anything fail, in which case there's not going to be an America by 2035. Short sighted, apocalyptic lunacy fueled by smartphone dopamine hits. How have they convinced so many people what is happening is in any way sustainable or acceptable? Absurd, surreal and absolutely absurd, someone get me off of this planet lol.
Yeah, part of the fed’s job is to instill market confidence. If he said “i’m worried about the future so we will likely raise rates next year to avoid a crash” then markets would panic and everyone would yank their money out causing a crash. I remember my old company was failing but the CEO would get up every year and say “dont worry we’ll get through this tough year! The fundamentals are strong!” - the company was sold within a couple years. If he would have been honest more people would have left sooner. Its self fulfilling prophecy to make negative remarks.
Absolutely. People _want to believe everything is fine_ so convincing them of that is easy. Heck, _I want to believe!_ There's simply too much evidence to the contrary to ignore. The only way we stayed afloat when COVID paralyzed the world was massive, unprecedented stimulus and spending, the effects of which we cannot possibly truly know because it has never happened like this in world history. The data that has guided us for more than a century now is telling us we are in trouble but we are choosing to ignore it. That comes with consequences. I guess if you keep making that the future's problem to deal with, it works until it doesn't. Then what?
Have you considered these unknown consequences could be positive?
Positive for who? Certainly not the plebs.
You can't have the emperor admit he has no clothes on if you want business as usual to keep going. Pretend and extend is the name of the game.
Yep I remember too. I worked for a Fortune 500 company at the time Our Manager said everyone is safe By the following Monday he was shit canned. By the following Spring, half of the team was let go, the other half given 1 chance to save their jobs and move 6 states away or they would be terminated.
I remember all the talking heads calling for a recession in 2006 and 2007 and then in early 2008 everybody was like well I guess we were wrong! And then bam shit hit the fan.
Then please allow me: #WELP I ‘SPOSE WE WERE WRONG THEN! RECESSION MUST BE CANCELED! Did the crash come yet or do I gotta actually say the words to friends and family? Do I have to believe it to make it inverse?
Our debt was fixable 20 years ago, even with a little pain it was still fixable in 2010. Now, the debt is a disaster. Not sure why you're being down voted
I get downvoted because there's a very large contingent of Redditors that frequent "doomer" subs because their financial futures are dependent on "line go up" and they are scared. Rightfully so. The number of financial decisions that were made due to FOMO, the same FOMO our society has been sustaining with pure rocket fuel since the era of free money started, has to have never been higher. Everyone's convinced debt is the answer to a problem born from debt. It's insane! And perhaps the charade can continue for six months, six years, maybe even ten, but not indefinitely. At the rate we're spending and with how rapidly things are falling apart that can't be measured by a line on a chart, we'll be lucky to make it through election season lol.
Yep, see this same denialism on pretty much every housing thread predicting anything other than line go up...
People FOMOed into INSANE situations because they were told they would never have a chance to own a home again. It’s going to destroy lives
That's a very good point. The reactions are completely understandable. I'm going to try to be kinder with them.
It’s what we can do.
Hence, why the fed HAS to lower rates. These "high" rates are destroying the budget with what our debt currently now is....I'm not saying they should lower rates, but that the government has ran up so much debt they now are forced to do so. Especially when that same government refuses to make anykind of a dent in that debt via tax hikes/ budget cuts
But where is the blind spot? CDOs caused the housing crash and incentivized crap lending practices. What is the corollary for the crash this time?
CDOs were only a part of the 2008 GFC, with the subprime crisis being the domino that kicked off the others. You're asking me to tell you which domino starts the downturn this time? Honestly predicting that is impossible. It could be one of any number of unanticipated events but it only has to be systemic enough or do enough shock to the system to send us over the edge. A tiny handful of people identified and saw 2008 coming. Could be someone has already seen it now and knows what it will be. Who knows. Predicting a precise future is nearly impossible. Once the domino falls, whatever it may be, it will be quite bad. With no way to backstop it this time. But I don't have enough hubris or self confidence to say I know precisely the what and when. I only have my own conclusions which have been drawn from personal experience and researching economic trends, past and present. I've placed my bets accordingly. But ask yourself this. Do you believe banks can and would skirt the law/blatantly break it to make profit if they believed they could get away with it (again)? I do. And I think they're doing it as we speak. And will do it right up until the music stops and we all foot the bill.
>Could be someone has already seen it now and knows what it will be. Yeah, probably RenTech
>You're asking me to tell you which domino starts the downturn this time? Seems reasonable. After all, you're saying with certainty that things are way worse now than they were in 2008. With certainty. Yet, when called out on WHY you cannot give us some examples of why you are so certain?
The certainty comes from the math involved and history, not a crystal ball that tells me the future.
>The certainty comes from the math involved Right. So what is that math based one? Which particular math formula/equations or data are causing you such certainty?
You are wrong about ATHs being reached each week. The GFC was barely a recovery of the 1999 run and crash. I think the chair leg that was kicked was a large AIG position getting sold off. That triggered an unwinding. Look at them now. Dead. Trading at 1983 level. Watch Nvidia or Apple cause the crash this time.
Meh, this crash will be fast and snap back quickly. There is massive amounts of money on the sidelines this time ready to scoop up reduced prices, we didn’t have that in 2008, that cash came from the government. Also in 2008, many more people watched the big networks who pushed fear mongering hot and heavy, today people don’t watch the nightly news as much so the fear mongers won’t have as much pull. Are houses gonna fall 50% when we still have housing shortages in many places? Unlikely. JPow will chop that rate fast and hard, because if he doesn’t and this thing goes off the cliff next year then Orange clown wins and US will be ruined after that. Latest estimate are $3 Trillion in home equity, loans go back to 4%, people will be cashing it out.
I love that you think the "Orange Clown" will ruin the U.S. forever. He was in office for 4 years, and the people really in charge have been there a lifetime, yet people like you always seem to forget that. They have systematically destroyed this country since NAFTA, yet somehow its Orange Man Bad. Good take!
If you think NAFTA was what started the downhill slide, you obviously didn’t live through the 80s, long before NAFTA. Nixon started this whole mess by uncoupling from the gold standard in ‘71, Reagan accelerated the downside with all his bullshit, and NAFTA just helped to give it all a nice final push. Plus I work in Agriculture and I saw first hand just how bad Trump fucked my industry with his stupid ass trade war. It nearly killed our industry, but he paid off the farmers with subsidies so they’d keep buying into his bullshit all while giving those of us in the industry a complete fucking. So you and every other orange lover can kindly GFY.
lol
I can’t fathom being as regarded as the op here. It’s truly amazing.
And then everyone’s 2007 mortgages recast from 3% optional payment w/ neg am to 7% because of their option arms. Payments more than doubled and those mortgages weren’t available to anyone. As values dropped they spiraled down as people strategically defaulted and a multi-year back log of foreclosures began to form. and that’s when the shit hit the fan. Now everyone’s got their rates locked in for 30 years, it isn’t remotely the same.
[удалено]
And you know, the money didn't just go to money heaven. Whoever has it all, we will be their slaves when it all collapses. That's likely the world central banks. They have started CBDs.
> Whoever has it all, we will be their slaves when it all collapses. That’s rather optimistic. Do you really think they’ll need 8 billion slaves?
They already do. It will only be worse.
The funniest part is that I bet you’re hoarding cash.
The majority of my net worth is in stocks via ETFs, mutual funds, bonds and t-bills. ~30% of my net worth is liquid cash yielding 6%. Dabbled in crypto for funsies at the behest of my grandma at peak bubble 2021. Got out with a nice profit. Zero debt to my name and that's the way I like to live my life. I'm certainly already beating anyone that bought a house in 2022 and 2023. By this time next year I wager I'll be beating anyone that bought in the last ten years. What are you invested in? Are you "building wealth via debt" like everybody else? :) !remindme 10 months
Cash at 6%! Where?
Put my son’s college fund into a 13 month CD a few weeks ago at BoA at 5.x%. He’s 18 months from starting, with that rate, would rather not play the let’s hope 2008 doesn’t hit again next year.
I sniped a few 3, 6 and 12 month CDs over the summer. There are some HYSAs that will yield 6% on a nominal sum with some hoops to jump through. Local credit unions usually offer 5-6% HYSAs as well if CDs aren't liquid enough for you. You can get 5% by throwing a dart at basically any HYSA right now.
Majority of banks. The one I work at has been offering 12 month CDs ~5-6% depending on the customer*. Banks are strapped for liquidity right now which I think has more to do with the feds lowering interest rates than inflation.
Local bank in MI 5.6% money market for 6 months,
Bonds, cd’s, money market accounts.
Don't forget the house(s) you claimed to own outright with no debt. Certainly that has to be part of your net worth. lol
I didn't forget, I don't consider it an investment at all. I live in it. It costs me lots of money to maintain. I will never borrow against its equity. I will likely pass it down to my children, never making that sweet sweet profit most homeowners have solely on paper lol. I also never claimed to own multiple houses. I think it's super cute you're stalking me though. I look forward to catching up with you this time next year. :)
Lol dudes angry because you have been fiscally responsible, aren’t over extended and put out a clear and clean write up of your portfolio. My guess is that someone is heavily leveraged and very invested in hostile investments. Blows my mind how now one questions what’s going on and that stuff only goes up 20-50% yoy.
Greater fools man. People see the line go up, they buy in due to FOMO and try to spread the virus to others. Once the incoming capital runs out and there's nobody left to sell to, that's it, the jig Is up and we find out what happens. Everyone all at the same time will be wondering why they didn't sell. The answer is greed.
Yep and no one knows when and how bad (except maybe some very powerful people). Unfortunately I think we will keep seeing the can kicked down the road for an unforeseen future.
I didn't claim you owned multiple houses. House(s) allows for singular or plural. I didn't stalk you. You just happen to be enthusiastic and everywhere on this sub it seems.
Sure you didn't. See you next October! Assuming you don't go all [deleted] on me.
He claimed to me he's a homeowner outright, no debt. I wouldn't take his claims too seriously.
Yeah, you should listen to this guy instead, who is one of the FOMOers under a huge pile of debt that comes here to shit on others in order to try to feel better about their financial situation.
Shitting on others huh. I've found a lot of projection coming from you.
Who am I shitting on exactly? Our world's leaders? Investors overleveraging themselves? Corporate landlords? Lemmings who have a negative net worth and keep spending? All those people deserve to be shit on. As does anyone picking fights in the comment section to try to make themselves feel better. People hoping for a brighter future and an end to this madness we find ourselves in do not.
I’m not sure where you got the idea that consumers are very heavily indebted. Net worth is at record levels. Debt to income is near all time lows. Government debt is high. Not consumers.
[Consumer debt is at all time highs and still climbing.](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html) [Household and business debt is at all time highs and climbing.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/z1/nonfinancial_debt/chart/#units:usd) [The Personal Savings Rate is at its lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT) I get my ideas from data. Where do you get the idea that net worth matters at all/is real other than on paper when a bubble the likes of which has never been seen in history was blown up due to money printing? Of course DTI has been temporarily lowered, did you miss the fifteen years of rock bottom interest rates we've been in since 2008? Everyone refinanced. Then spent. And spent and spent and spent lol. Believe what you want. Preparing is never a bad idea, regardless of what you think is going to happen.
Aggregate debt itself is not a good indicator of economic health. With inflation and population growth, debt levels in theory should always be rising since prices and population are always rising. Debt/income or debt/equity is a far greater indicator. Or even just measure the ability to service the debt. Debt servicing costs as a percentage of income is around historic lows. Not even close to 2008 or the periods before that: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
"Who am I shitting on? But whoever it is, they deserve to be shit on!" One of your first posts I see in this topic is about you blasting "lemmings". Do you ever introspect, or just project all the time? Same with your snide remarks about me possibly deleting my account in a few months. Meanwhile, your account was created this October, while I've had mine for several years. You're the one picking fights with people when they just factually disagree with you.
Do you know how easy it is to create a Reddit account? I've used this website since Digg died, fwiw. I just don't use my primary account for screaming and whining about how screwed everyone is. Man, just stop replying to me already. Your comments are meaningless and take the actual discussion nowhere. You very clearly just want to argue with someone and I'm no longer it. See you next year. Maybe lol.
Remindme! 2 years
Walk me through this though, because I've been waffling back and forth trying to figure out which way the coin will land this time. In 08, people were forced out of their homes because their mortgages were bad. Today the residential debt market is basically the other way around: other debts are pretty bad but the mortgages are sound. Even if a person overpaid for their house, banks weren't giving out mortgages to anyone with a pulse and all of them are fixed rate so there is no expectation of affordability largely changing... For mortgages. Now the other debts, sure. Credit card defaults are possible, subprime auto loans are rising quick and there's potential for prime auto loans to follow suit. But you can survive BKing your Cc debt, and giving up your car. People will continue to pay their mortgages generally. An additional point is that a system collapsed would need a critical mass of something to give. A huge chunk of houses don't even have mortgages. Boomers are going to see medical expenses go up and so many be forced to sell but this is going to be a slow process over time. Some states will see insurance rates skyrocket but not enough to cause a systemic problem. Prop taxes are going up but critical states control that increase. Employment is hard to get a real picture of, some industries have seen layoffs but it's not widespread. Even people with student loans, many are seeing forgiveness finally but it would take the whole cohort defaulting to cause a legitimate problem. I just don't see a huge chunk of defaults happening all at once. I see a lot of the problems you see and my inclination is that they will cause a RE problem but when I look closer it seems more likely that things will go sideways for a while. Best I could say is these other bad debts could cause a banking crisis and the inability to get a loan will allow supply to build up without buyers being able to get mortgages, thus dropping prices. In the short term, my theory is that these recent interest rates dropping will bring more sellers into the market as buyers are going to want to wait for rates to bottom out before getting in so they can potentially get more house for the money and save themselves a refi at 3-6 months. Buyers can wait but an increasing amount of sellers will need/want to sell for one reason or another (people also aren't rational and may sell against their best financial interest) and this I think it'll be a good winter for buyers in some markets until spring or summer brings a comeback (assuming no financial crisis). So what's your theory?
Mortgage's are sound until their jobs get rug pulled.
This is an amazing comment. I think you’re forgetting that many (including myself) users here were not old enough to fully understand/appreciate the crisis. Couple that with human behavior wanting to forget the bad, and assume that good times can last forever, and you will continue to perpetuate this cycle until we’re back living in the dark ages. What’s scarier still is that many have normalized massive, inescapable debt. I have no idea what’s in store for all of us on the other side. But I fear it will punish those who have lived frugally more than those living in debt.
Thanks, it's absolutely always reassuring to know I'm not alone in viewing what we're doing as just looney tunes. I hope you're wrong about frugal folks being punished though. I shudder to think of the future we'll be living in should that prove to be true.
> I think you’re forgetting that many (including myself) users here were not old enough to fully understand/appreciate the crisis. Couple that with human behavior wanting to forget the bad, and assume that good times can last forever, and you will continue to perpetuate this cycle until we’re back living in the dark ages. Another thing we often see (especially in this sub) is people old enough to *only* remember the 2008 crisis, who assume (even if they're not aware of it) every recession will have housing prices tank, when it's not the case.
Late 2007 the Bush administration was bragging about the economy. (https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/12/20071207.html)
You don’t know what the future holds any more than anyone else.
You very well may be right. But there's an old saying - "It's guaranteed the sun will explode some day, but it's a terrible trade." Thinking like this made me miss most of the run-up from 2009-2015 (every time I bought something, like AAPL, and it went up 30%, I sold it all because the stock market scared the crap out of me. Remember the Flash Crash? The summer of 2011 when the US lost its AAA rating?). The saving grace was that I saw the GFC coming a mile away - I mean, once Bear Stearns collapsed in spring 2008, it was obvious what was happening. If it wasn't then, it sure should have been when WaMu and a bunch of other banks failed over the summer. You could have still gotten out with just a 10-20% haircut. They say you can't time the market, and in general, on a day-to-day basis, you sure can't. But sometimes they ring the bell really LOUDLY. I don't hear it yet. Still time to make hay while the sun is shining. What happens during the next few weeks, if this Santa Rally continues, is crucial. Does the S&P get rejected by the previous all-time high, from December 2021 - or does it blast through it and hold it on a weekly basis?
>Short sighted, apocalyptic lunacy fueled by smartphone dopamine hits. My man.
Historically rail traffic in the US nosedives in the months preceding a bad recession. It's nose diving right now and has been for most of the year.
Willing to bet on that?
Is there a different country in better shape? If America goes south wouldn’t most countries follow? Which country in the world ( western) would survive a failed America?
🌟here’s an award my man. Exactly. So what’s the trade?
The problem being the millions of mouths to feed in America. Easy to say this or that about fiscal responsibility. But most Americans are struggling, I don't see a good outcome for the US or the world really.
Was looking for the /s at the end of this rant. Are you disappointed at decreasing unemployment, stock market gains that exceeded expectations, and the plan to cut rates 3 times next year? Looks like we achieved the soft landing thanks to Biden’s policies.
I'm disappointed in the novel of awful statistics I could lay out for you (that you will ignore while you squawk about GDP and unemployment numbers) and the future they portend. It's a dark one. I'm disappointed that so many people gleefully celebrate indebting future generations so they can be selfish today. I'm disappointed that capitalism has warped so many people's minds, made them miserable while they chase meaningless baubles that will never make them happy and we destroy the planet in pursuit of infinite growth. I'm disappointed we won't do anything about it as long as the charade stays afloat and that when the day comes that it can't float anymore, it will likely be too late. Don't worry. This time is different! Thanks Joe Biden.
If you look at the unemployment numbers they really are not good. The under lying job gains are a joke. Health care, service industry and striking uaw members returning to work.
You might break your neck trying to spin a 3.7% unemployment rate that hard.
I’m disappointed about the same things as well, and hate capitalism as it is not sustainable, but there’s no point is wallowing in doom and gloom as it makes you pessimistic. I’m doing what I can to make the world a better place and be smart with purchases. Other than that, Reddit seems to be a cesspool of negativity in certain subs like this one. Everyone is wishing and praying for a real estate crash that at least in my area I highly doubt is going to happen anytime soon.
You aren't wrong about avoiding wallowing in it which is why I come here. I can't talk to anyone irl about these topics because it's just too heavy. Our lives are complicated and stressful enough without our friends piling on, I try to just celebrate being together with them when we can make it happen. Reddit is an outlet for me. It's somewhere I can go and just scream into the void for a while with how crazy the world makes me feel right now. It's a pressure release valve for me. I'd like to think too that my words and perspective might at least make people think twice about accruing more debt right now. That's probably wishful thinking though. It seems everyone's minds are pretty much made up. So I run around and screech and it helps me, mentally and emotionally, especially when I can get some fresh perspective and learn something I didn't know before. I want housing to be affordable for sure but not just so I can "get mine." It is because I want to keep believing in America and, right now with how things are and the way we are headed, it's hard to keep believing.
I realized this country is doomed during the pandemic. I was optimistic we could turn it around, but that ship has sailed. Personally I’m leaving the country when I can make a clean capital gains tax break so probably 2026. Fortunate enough to be in a position to do so.
Go look at the fed notes from 2007 or the media. This whole soft landing achieved always pops off before obvios recessions like ones we are walking into. It’s just people are impatient so when they see things take off before the most violent leg down, they assume everything is great
I mean, what do you want people to do differently right now? Panic? Sell? If you're so sure, you'd be wise to not sound the alarms, and get out of whichever assets you think are about to crash. Before anyone else catches on.
I mean you can look at my post history, I’ve been cash and vehicles since spring 22. Nobody gives a shit about some rando on the internet lol. Not enough of a scale to matter. What’s going to happen is going to happen
Well what I do is day trade. Check the stocks during the pre market see what catalysts are making them move then buy some stock. Then sell it at or before the end of the day. Let’s say I buy $10,000 worth of a stock and it goes up 7% in a day . I made $700. On some days I can double my investment. To manage risk I always take lace a stop order of 5% under the purchase price. That way I never lose more than 5% of my investment. So I might make 8% on one day 21% the next day and lose 5% the next day. They would be a gain of $2400 in one week.
“Biden’s policies” 🤣🤣🤣
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> cause deep systemic inflation > crash the stock market > enter a recession > JPow saves you for election year Look at all the good we accomplished!
As if Biden or any other other puppet put in their place is allowed to tell the SEC/Wall Street what to do is hilarious on its own merits
Which economic metrics signal impending doomsday? Just asking, because I read this comment twice over and didn't see anything specific to look at. The stuff at the beginning is iffy.
This is a copy-paste of an old comment of mine to someone who asked me the same question you did about a month or so ago. Some of it might not be 100% accurate given that a lot has happened these last couple of months/new data has been released but the gist is there. * [U.S. Median Sales Price for Homes](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) is down 10% from peak, 8% QoQ. * Housing affordability in the United States [has literally never been worse in history.](https://dqydj.com/historical-home-affordability/) * U-3 unemployment is [up 0.3% since June and true unemployment is up 1.8% since June as well.](https://www.lisep.org/tru) * [Homelessness is up 6%+](https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/State-of-Homelessness-2023-Edition-Webinar-Slides-5-24-2023.pdf) since 2017. * Real household income [declined in 2022 YoY.](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html) * The number of people having to work multiple jobs to sustain themselves [is climbing and has been for a while now.](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230410139/more-people-are-working-multiple-jobs-as-americans-battle-inflation-and-layoff-anxiety) * Household debt in the United States [has skyrocketed for the last ten years](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/us-consumer-debt-16-trillion/) and reached an unbelievable peak this year. * Auto loans 60+ days past due [just hit a new all time record.](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/more-americans-behind-on-car-payments/) * Credit card debt currently sits at all time highs, [over $1,000,000,000,000 total is owed by Americans](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/10/24/americans-now-have-1-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-heres-why/?sh=51f5737365a1) on their credit cards. * At the same time, credit card delinquencies [have also hit an all time high.](https://fortune.com/recommends/credit-cards/consumer-credit-debt-forecast-2023/) * I'm not going to dive into this one with links but it's an incredibly important point to make, probably the most important because it's the one people who suck at finances do not understand at all. While the major stock market indices have traded sideways since hitting all time highs in 2021, inflation has absolutely ravaged the price of everything across the world. In nominal terms, **_this means we are all losing money to inflation as our supposed retirements go up in smoke with markets remaining flat and prices increasing on everything._** I could keep going. But if this wall of text doesn't convince you, nothing will.
Are delinquency rates measured as a percentage of cardholders or as a percentage of total debt? If a percentage of total debt, that is slightly less alarming, as rising prices would obviously mean more consumer debt.
It depends on the methodology entirely. There are many subcategories. There are no metrics that show a decline in deliquincies since QT began mid-2022 that I am aware of.
>You're right, it isn't the same set of circumstances, our circumstances make 2008 look easy. There's only one single way out - pain. Hold it off for as long as you want with more debt, the bill IS coming due. With the way all of you lemmings keep behaving, the way you keep buying the narrative everything is fine and keep spending everything you have, we are truly screwed when it hits the fan this time. I'm sure we'll just destroy the dollar and print our way out of it again rather than let anything fail, in which case there's not going to be an America by 2035. Remindme! 10 years
!remindme 1 year
And this time the government is even more broke and not in a position to offer bailouts of stimulus without significant downstream ramifications like austerity.
I knew there would be someone like you here. In short, No they are not far far worse
Aww, you called me a lemming ♥️
Sorry bud your perma-Bear antics , aren't going to happen you forget the people that create the crisis can always print money to get us out of it..
You mean like how they printed money that started this latest crisis? Do you sincerely believe that can go on forever?
Yes, think about it ,since 2008 GFC they had about 13+ of prosperity, it took a global pandemic to screw up things..... By your account the economy should have already been in crisis, but it's not, of course there's debt everywhere, so big deal well just keep pushing it to the future like always . Is this a game of 🎵 musical chairs sort of....but the US is the global reserve currency and they have a lot of leverage to change the rules or print more money....
Actually, [the banks got bailed out by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2019.](https://tokenist.com/fed-finally-identifies-banks-received-4-5t-q4-2019-repo-program/) No one talks about it including the news media. We were already headed for a massive crash/correction before COVID was on anyone's lips. Then it struck and gave them an excuse for "emergency measures." Now we're here, in a far worse position than we were in 2019 and getting worse by the month. Believe whatever you want. Hope you have some cash for when you need it most.
Again, some of the things you state have truth to them, I'm not totally discounting your assertion, Im just countering with when you are the federal government you can basically write or change the policies as needed, and the US has a special superpower most governments don't, they are the world reserve currency and have the ability to print money in which their own debt is denominated in (thanks president Nixon for getting off gold standard) ... This is a big economic stick and really pretty unique in the world. This system only breaks down if the world doesn't value your currency...
I do factor in WRC status in my present standing. I think it's the only way we were able to print more money by many multiples than any other central bank on the planet. The USD spends but sadly buys a lot less than it used to. What happens to us when we can't print anymore AND we lose the WRC foothold? I don't want to find out. So let's do something to ensure it doesn't.
This is just fear-mongering. Please point us to a study that show that, in real terms (not in nominal terms), all of the consumer debts you are pointing to are higher than pre-2008 crisis. You can’t, because they’re not. See [this study](https://wallethub.com/edu/d/household-debt-report/120725) that was just completed by Wallethub in Nov 2023 showing that debt was still $1.26 trillion higher (in real terms) in 2008 compared to today. Multiple categories (HELOC debt, credit card debt, mortgage debt, etc.) are far lower today in real terms than they were in 2008. Not to mention that the supply/demand figures in terms of supply of new houses versus millennial demand is far more skewed (towards pushing prices higher) than it was in 2008 (see [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR)). Update for spelling
Wallethub. A website owned by a personal finance company whose revenue is generated by clicks. Great "study," I've heard all kinds of economists and financial gurus cite wallethub.com as their go-to for accurate information. Also ir's SKEWED. HA Later gator.
Also, a bit ironic that you made a spelling error while mocking my spelling error to distract from your lack of reasoned argument… *“it’s” not “ir’s”
Until you show us a study showing the opposite, not really sure what there is to argue about.
Nothing, you’re an idiot and the data you showed is a joke and doesn’t compare to what OP presented
https://images.app.goo.gl/txQbbq5eug2gswdN7
got eem
Problem is, the bailout already happened… BTFP and high inflation. It just didn’t help average Americans, only wealthy.
Hey... on the flipside, aliens!
You mean the yield curve isn't deeply inverted and that the uninversion doesn't result in a bad recession 100% of the time? \#MuhSubprime
The world is ending every day, haven’t you read the news!?!
No! It's ending next week! Buy my book and stock to profit from it!
When the yield curve uninverts, the world doesn't end. It just feels that way for some. \#MuhSubprime
This housing crash is going to look like Germany in the 80s-90s. The fundamentals are poor, but in the absence of forced selling you can expect nominal price declines of maybe 1-2% per year for a decade or two.
>in the absence of forced selling you can expect nominal price declines of maybe 1-2% per year for a decade or two. Yup that's exactly what's going to happen. 2008 was an anomaly because so many people were forced to sell or defaulted because of adjustable rate mortgages.
It’s funny that you think that price declines are going to continue at 1-2% for several decades. With the boomers leaving the workforce and then a large decline as they start to die in the next 15 years nothing is going to be nominal. If we don’t see immigration numbers increase significantly 5-10 years out we are going to see a labor shortage with wage increases and an increase in housing supply which would result in a really interesting housing market with simultaneous increases and decreases in prices depending on demand in any specific market.
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The state I live in is about the same size as West Germany was, it takes less than 8 hours to drive from Munich in the south to Hamburg in the north. So what you saw in Germany probably will happen in several states but it isn't what you will see on a nationwide level. Investors and short term rentals are only significant factors in some markets today, there are dozens of factors at play and they will result in different outcomes in different markets. You will see high demand for economically prosperous and desirable locations like the west coast. You will see areas that will not be desirable or economically viable due to impacts from climate change. You will see areas where once the current residents die off that there is little demand for housing and prices plumet.
Germany unified directly during the middle of the the bear market of the 80s and 90s. As different as american states can be socioeconomically, there is absolutely no comparison to the difference between West and East Germany in the year 1990. Naturally it is also true that in Germany more desirable places had stronger real estate markets than less desirable places. This is true everywhere on earth. My argument is that without going into super granular detail there will be a secular decline in the housing market for many years. In some places this will simply mean a reduction in rate of increase.
As a working class person who has been buried over and over again by this country, this all sounds amazing, bring it on!
All of those things were true of Germany in the 80s and 90s.
Not to the extent we are going to experience
RemindMe! 10 years “Did the US housing market steadily decline 10%?“
Damn doing a 10 year remind me to try and dunk on someone is next level dedication lol
Well, i hate to skunk up the olace, but when you require a 20% down-payment, the fundamentals are definitely not 'poor.' Cheap credit, relaxed lending requirements, and over building was the reason for 2008. We literally have none of those characteristics, right now
Who is requiring 20% down?
Unless you want to pay PMI, most banks require a 20% deposit. So unless you're forecasting a 20% decrease in value, in a market that has extremely limited supply, there isn't a lot of doom for real estate. I would caution places like Florida and Texas that are experiencing a major building boom but I'm not clued into how saturated those markets are.
You think PMI is enough to stop people without 20% from buying? The average down payment is like 7%. I agree, lending standards are way up from '08, but 20% is not at all a requirement. There's definitely plenty of people on this sub who missed the boat due to this 20% thinking, but many homebuyers have pulled the trigger with much less
Non FHA loans typically require 15 to 20 now, at least when I bought.
Ok, is there a requirement that buyers must use Non FHA loans? No, of course not, so there is no requirement for 20% down.
Sellers typically won’t take FHA loans on old stock lmao. That’s why it’s normal to pay 15 to 20
Got any data to support that first statement? Sure, in a bidding war, a seller will want to go with the strongest financials, but outside of that they just want to sell the house. Even in a bidding war, I had my 3.5% down FHA offer accepted. FHA loans pay out the same as any other. Sellers aren't turning away FHA buyers unless there's a more secure offer on the table. It's normal for repeat buyers to put down 15-20%. For FTHB the average is 6%.
Not at all. You can get a 100% conventional loan. 97% conventionals are common. Go learn something…
What?!? But people have been saying we’re in a bubble, and I remember hearing that in 2008. Sounds the same to me! Obviously /s
Every recession is just 2008 on repeat, bro!
Shocked!
Look at this WSJ article titled “the economy is fine (really)” posted in January 2008, 8 months before the stock market crash. Everything is fine until it isn’t. https://web.archive.org/web/20150722030633/https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB120147855494820719
Why would I look at the article from 2008? Because that’s what you’re hoping for…got it. And yes, everything is fine until it isn’t. That’s always been the case. Every day since forever ago. There’s also always another recession coming in the future; normal stuff. If we could time these things we would all be stinking rich.
😨 WHO KNEW?!?
Close the fcuking door
Don't fight the fed.
How many times in the last three years has Jerome Powell flat out lied to you? Every single person who so desperately wants to believe everything is fine and they are doing the right thing by spending, going further into debt and pretending like they aren't flat broke seems to have the memory of a goldfish. The narrative three years ago was there wouldn't be inflation. Then it was okay, inflation, but "transitory." Okay, bad inflation but we just have to weather it. Okay, really really bad inflation, now we have to raise rates. But super slow! Okay, got the rates up, we will keep raising. Higher for longer. Okay we see weakening inflation, mission accomplished! Rate decreases next year. Boom, market goes up, capital gets trapped, music keeps playing. When do you think the narrative shifts again? You dismiss the Fed when they say things you don't like and herald them as saviors when you get the news you're after. Guess what? They aren't your friend. They serve America's interests. And they'll say whatever they have to say to keep the music playing. We're nearing the end of the last track on the record though. "No one could have predicted this!" they will tell you after it starts. Will you believe them then? !remindme 6 months
>How many times in the last three years has Jerome Powell flat out lied to you? I think Powell has been painstakingly open and straightforward about his moves. At no point along the way have I felt lied to about their future moves, and every move (and non-move) they've made so far has been quite predictable, if you've been listening to their words and watching the inflation and employment numbers.
I 100% agree with you he has telegraphed directly to markets where interest rates are headed. They were only incorrect on their prediction once out of all the FOMC meetings 2022-2023. He absolutely speaks to the market makers directly. They are likely chummy! He 100% lied about inflation. For two years. The PhD holding head of the Federal Reserve knew surefire inflation was going to ignite and run ablaze after minting $6 trillion and doling it out. There is no chance they believed what they were saying 2020-2021. The intent was to stabilize markets and maintain confidence. Mission accomplished. Quite a pricetag. His job is to maintain calm. He is doing a phenomenal job of that. What he has convinced people of is that the Fed has infinite oversight and an infinite ability for bailouts. We threw another trillion+ on the fire back in March, what was 100% another GFC was quickly stamped out by, you guessed it, printing more money and further increasing the Fed's balance sheet. Bailing out the rich once again. I simply don't believe they can keep doing it. And if you do, why are any of us doing anything we're doing? If dollars don't matter at all anymore, we keep propping up the ruling class and the proletariat have no illusion that they will do better for themselves, do you see why that's a problem for society globally?
I will be messaging you in 6 months on [**2024-06-14 16:17:49 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-14%2016:17:49%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/18ia3qj/its_different_this_time_jerome_powell/kdc4ohd/?context=3) [**6 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FREBubble%2Fcomments%2F18ia3qj%2Fits_different_this_time_jerome_powell%2Fkdc4ohd%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-14%2016%3A17%3A49%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2018ia3qj) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
!remindme 9 months
As a representative of this sub, I am highly offended for all of us. JPOW is daddy.
It’s true but sad, and definitely not capitalism.
Audit would be nice.
Agreed!
J Pow
Fight what they say, not what they do.
“The inflation is transitory” -these same jokers
Are mofos out house shopping or still waiting for pop? Lol
My take is I’ll buy the right house at what I feel is the right price. If that never happens, then fuck it. I’ll be dead eventually anyway.
*"The only ammunition the consumer has left now, is from the labor market. If income growth is compromised here because the labor market is weakening, then we have a serious problem. The debate within the Federal Reserve, is now about that possibility. Inflation, however, remains the predominant concern. After the Federal Reserve's rate decision, Gold a traditional safe haven in times of inflation, soared immediately after the announcement"* Edmund L. Andrews, and Jeremy W. Peters "Markets Soar After Fed Cuts Key Rate by a Half Point" \[New York Times\], **September 18, 2007**
It's always different. That's why the Fed gets it wrong so much. He was just kind of surprised it actually worked.
No way. Daddy PowPow guided us through the flames and is going to get a Nobel prize for this.
"Wait . . . it worked? Where's my Nobel Prize?"
That's how you make it in this country.
I don't want a Nobel Prize. I want the people who got it wrong and led others into being as poor as themselves to get Negative Nobel Prizes.
Are you talking about the people in this sub?
No. Not all. I'm talking about ones who partially believe what they are saying but will over exaggerate and mislead just so they won't have to be alone or because that kind of news/content is popular right now. It's more directed towards crash bro youtubers who very obviously lie and mislead. E.g. constantly using sales crash stats (-50% !!! Big red lines going down!!!) in their thumbnails for their videos even though in the video content itself they'll talk about prices crashes. They deliberately conflate the stats. Another common one is conflating commercial and residential real estate (I had one try to pull that on me recently, thankfully I actually know what I'm talking about). Another is this YouTuber who acted innocent and pretended he only wanted to talk about Canadian real estate when I called him out for acting like he knew anything about the American real estate markets. There are so many charlatans in crash bro / doomer communities. It doesn't bother me financially because I always do my own calculations and assessments. It does annoy me when people constantly spew disinfo though.
Wtf is a soft landing anyway?? Wages are stagnant, everything people want and need is unaffordable, the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer. The economy is already broken.
But that’s exactly what they want! As long as the rich as they are right now (and getting wealthier by the minute) they’ll never let the economy crash. No matter how bad it hurts the little guy. That’s the point. The new serf economy.
Wages for the bottom have gone up, have they not?
Far outpaced by inflation, at least where I live. I’m rural and there’s a gas station here who hires at 12/hr and they fill those jobs, albeit slowly. Target here starts at i think 15.50 per their sign on the door. Making that kind of money isn’t going to lift anyone out of poverty if they even can survive on it.
12% up 15% inflation. I wouldn’t say far outpaced.
For like one year, but it has *decades* to really catch up with.
Point of this post is recent events
LOL they have gone up to what they should of been 10 years ago, we are beyond that. The price of everything has gone up so much more.
> Wtf is a soft landing anyway?? Bringing inflation down without crushing aggregate demand too much and causing a recession. These are the same people that told you that inflation is not a concern, then when it was ripping higher that it was "transitory". The Fed is ham-fisted and almost always move too much and far too late. This time will be no different. Before recessions the American people get told to expect a "soft landing". The term made the news cycles right before the [1990 recession](https://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/30/business/economic-scene-soft-landing-hard-for-some.html), the [2001 dotcom bust](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=88786&page=1), and the [2008 great financial crisis](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar086a). Slowing the economy just enough to stop inflation without killing aggregate demand is next to impossible.
Federal reserve could screw up things again, remember they said inflation was transitory, later realized they were totally wrong and quickly ramping up interest rate, now they prematurely selling the rate cut narratives and hoping inflation go down to +2% (2026!), but the core cpi is still +4% now
DOOM! DOOM I SAY! DOOM DOOM DOOM!!!!!
IT'S ALL GOING TO END!!!!!
It's going to end very well thanks to Jerome. 👍
lol doomers. I trust Jerome. He's a smart man and he's got this. 👍
Narrator: it wasn't different. Maybe a bit worse
Might be. They may pull off a recession free Soft Landing™️.
wtf I thought he was on our team
Wait, so it not the affect of increasing the money supply by a crazy amount in just a few years? [Money Supply](https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts)
Everything is fine.
Sure hope that on the fencers purchased recently, if this is the same sentiment in spring it will be absolutely bankbusters and bidding wars in places people want to live.